Core Viewpoint - The overall employment situation in China remains stable, with a slight decrease in the urban survey unemployment rate to 5.0% in May, reflecting the resilience of the job market amid economic challenges [1][2][4]. Employment Situation - The average urban survey unemployment rate from January to May was 5.2%, with May's rate showing a 0.1 percentage point decrease from the previous month [1]. - The unemployment rate for local and migrant workers was both recorded at 5.0%, while the rate for migrant agricultural workers was slightly lower at 4.9% [1]. - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities was also 5.0%, indicating a consistent trend across urban areas [1]. Economic Factors Supporting Employment - Economic growth and favorable industrial development have contributed to the stability of employment, supported by effective employment policies [2][4]. - In May, the industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.8% and 6.2%, respectively, maintaining overall stability compared to April [4]. - The retail and accommodation sectors showed significant growth, with production indices increasing by 8.4% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to the previous month [4]. Policy Measures - The government has implemented robust employment stabilization policies, focusing on both enterprise support for job creation and individual employment subsidies [5]. - These policies aim to balance labor supply and demand by incentivizing companies to hire and enhancing individual employability [5]. - Future efforts will focus on vocational training and improving labor market matching to promote full employment and enhance job quality [5]. Youth Employment - The youth unemployment rate has shown a continuous decline for three months, indicating a positive trend in youth employment [6]. - Despite this progress, challenges remain regarding the overall pressure on youth employment and structural issues that need ongoing policy attention [6][7]. - Initiatives targeting college graduates have been intensified, with various measures introduced to support their employment [7]. Importance of Stable Employment - Stable employment for youth is crucial for personal development, family financial security, and overall economic sustainability [8].

Economic Overview - The overall economic operation in May is stable and shows progress, characterized by five keywords: stable growth, steady operation, continuous improvement, accumulating momentum, and resilience [1] Industrial Performance - In May, the industrial production showed steady growth with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in the added value of large-scale industries, supported by advancements in high-end, intelligent, and green development [2] - The consumption market saw a significant rebound, with the total retail sales of consumer goods increasing by 6.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.3 percentage points from the previous month [2] Consumer Trends - The policy of replacing old consumer goods has effectively stimulated consumer potential, leading to rapid growth in sales of related products. Retail sales of household appliances, communication equipment, cultural office supplies, and furniture increased by 53%, 33%, 30.5%, and 25.6% respectively [2] - Emerging consumption models such as live streaming sales and instant retail are maturing, while sectors like the silver economy and low-altitude economy are developing rapidly, indicating new growth points in consumer economics [2] Foreign Trade - In May, the total import and export value reached 38,098 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.7%. The trade structure continues to optimize, with private foreign trade enterprises demonstrating strong market expansion capabilities [3] Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in May was 5%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, with the youth unemployment rate declining for three consecutive months [4] - The stable employment situation is supported by steady economic growth, favorable macro policies, and the development of industries with significant employment capacity [4] Future Employment Strategies - To address employment pressures, it is essential to enhance vocational skills training, improve labor supply and demand matching, and promote quality employment to ensure economic stability and social harmony [6] Economic Stability and Support - The economic fundamentals remain strong, with stable growth momentum and high-quality development trends unchanged. The macro policy toolbox is well-stocked, allowing for dynamic adjustments to ensure continued economic stability [7][8]

Employment Situation - In May, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued improvement and overall stability in employment [1] - The unemployment rate for the youth demographic has been declining for three consecutive months, reflecting a stable employment situation [1] Economic Factors Supporting Employment - Economic growth has been stable, supported by proactive macro policies that have effectively countered negative external factors, thus stabilizing labor demand [3] - In May, the industrial added value and service production index grew by 5.8% and 6.2% respectively, maintaining overall stability compared to April [3] Industry Performance - Certain industries with significant employment capacity, such as wholesale retail and accommodation catering, have shown positive growth, with production indices increasing by 8.4% and 6.2% respectively in May [3] - The implementation of consumption policies and holiday economic activities has contributed to market expansion, further stabilizing employment [3] Policy Support for Employment - The government has intensified efforts to implement employment stabilization policies, including support for enterprise job expansion and individual employment subsidies [3] - Social security and employment expenditures in the general public budget increased by 8.5% from January to April, outpacing overall budget growth [4] Challenges and Future Actions - Despite the overall stability, challenges remain due to complex external environments affecting the labor market, with mismatches in labor supply and demand persisting [6] - The government plans to enhance vocational training and improve labor market matching to promote full employment and improve employment quality [6] Educational Initiatives - The "100-day sprint" initiative for the 2025 college graduates is being implemented nationwide to enhance employment opportunities [6] - Collaborative projects between universities and enterprises have been established to align educational outcomes with market needs, with over 2000 universities and 2300 enterprises participating [7]

Core Insights - The Small and Medium Enterprises Development Index (SMEDI) in China rose to 89.5 in May, an increase of 0.3 points from April, marking a significant recovery after two months of decline [1] - The improvement in the index is attributed to enhanced macroeconomic policies, better supply-demand relationships in certain industries, and a noticeable recovery in economic sentiment, which has positively influenced small and medium enterprises' performance and investment willingness [1] Economic Indicators - In May, various economic indices showed positive changes compared to April: - Macroeconomic sentiment index increased by 0.7 points - Comprehensive operation index rose by 0.6 points - Market index up by 0.2 points - Capital index increased by 0.3 points - Labor index grew by 0.2 points - Input index up by 0.4 points - Efficiency index increased by 0.4 points - The cost index remained stable compared to April, indicating a favorable trend in the operational environment for small and medium enterprises [1] Industry Performance - In May, several industries experienced growth compared to April: - Industrial sector increased by 0.6 points - Transportation sector rose by 0.6 points - Real estate sector up by 0.2 points - Wholesale and retail sector increased by 0.1 points - Information transmission and software sector grew by 0.4 points - Accommodation and catering sector also rose by 0.4 points - However, the construction and social services sectors saw declines of 0.2 points and 0.3 points, respectively, indicating a mixed performance across industries [1] Regional Analysis - The development indices for small and medium enterprises in May by region were as follows: - Eastern region: 90.5 - Central region: 90.3 - Western region: 88.7 - Northeastern region: 81.8 - The ongoing release of policy effects has led to a noticeable recovery in development expectations for small and medium enterprises, although challenges remain due to external uncertainties and the need for further domestic demand and consumption stimulation [2]

Core Insights - The core issue for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) is how to allocate their financing effectively, impacting their future survival and development [1][3]. Financing and Fund Allocation - According to the "2024 China SME Financing Development Report," SMEs primarily use funds for daily operations, with operational expenses accounting for approximately 93% of total funding [4][6]. - SMEs face high operational cost pressures due to their smaller scale and limited financial reserves, leading to a "short, small, frequent, and urgent" financing demand [6][9]. - The report indicates that SMEs prioritize maintaining daily operations over expanding production, market development, and product innovation, which limits their competitiveness [9][12]. Industry-Specific Insights - Different industries exhibit varying focuses on "developmental investments." For instance, the wholesale and retail sectors have the highest operational expense ratios, with wholesale reaching 97.26%, a year-on-year increase of 0.44% [13][14]. - In terms of R&D spending, the software and information technology services sector leads with an 8.73% allocation, despite a year-on-year decline of 10.55% [15]. - The non-metallic mineral products industry has the highest marketing expenditure ratio at 5.72%, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 54.59% [15]. Challenges and Recommendations - SMEs face significant survival pressure in a competitive market, primarily allocating funds to daily operations, which restricts resources for R&D and marketing, hindering their ability to innovate and grow [17]. - To ensure survival while investing in future growth areas like technology innovation and market expansion, SMEs need to adopt new operational strategies, explore digital solutions, and diversify financing channels [17].

Core Viewpoint - Hainan Province has introduced a comprehensive implementation plan to enhance the modern commercial circulation system and promote high-quality development in the wholesale and retail sectors through ten specific measures [2]. Group 1: Key Measures - The implementation plan outlines four main areas: building a smooth urban-rural commercial circulation network, promoting innovative development in commercial circulation, optimizing development methods, and facilitating the integration of internal and external commercial circulation [2]. - Specific measures include strengthening the rural commercial circulation foundation, improving the agricultural product supply chain, optimizing urban commercial service efficiency, and promoting platform-based development in the wholesale sector [2][3]. Group 2: Development Goals - By 2027, Hainan aims to create at least five "leading counties" in the national county commercial system, with over five counties achieving "enhanced" status and ten counties reaching "upgraded" status [3]. - The plan supports the enhancement of agricultural product distribution markets in cities like Haikou, Sanya, and Danzhou, and encourages the establishment of cold chain distribution centers in major agricultural production areas [3]. Group 3: Retail Innovation - The province will promote the deep integration of physical retail and the digital economy, transforming traditional retail stores and encouraging the development of multi-functional stores [4]. - Hainan aims to cultivate modern circulation backbone enterprises and promote the integration of urban and rural commercial circulation [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the new trends in employment and wage data for urban employees in 2024, highlighting shifts from high salary pursuits to a focus on reducing work intensity and improving hourly wages across various sectors [1]. Group 1: Employment Trends - Trend 1: Employment is shifting from "pursuing high salaries" to "anti-involution," with a notable decrease in average wage growth for urban non-private sector employees, which has dropped to 2.8% in 2024, down 6.8 percentage points since 2021 [2][9]. - The transportation, leather, and clothing industries have shown resilience in wage growth, with transportation revenue growth exceeding 8% in 2024, while the average wage in the non-private sector is 124,000 yuan [2][9]. - Employment is increasingly moving towards sectors with shorter working hours and higher hourly wages, such as healthcare, where weekly working hours decreased by 1.5 hours and hourly wages increased by 9.3 yuan from 2021 to 2023 [2][32]. Group 2: Regional Wage Convergence and Employment Consumption - Trend 2: There is a convergence in wage growth between eastern and western regions, with the wage growth rate in eastern urban non-private sectors at 7.5% from 2019 to 2023, compared to 7.1% in the western regions, narrowing the gap from 0.8 percentage points in 2019 to 0.5 percentage points in 2024 [4][52][53]. - Employment in the service sector is increasingly migrating towards the western regions, driven by stronger wage growth resilience in these areas, particularly in hospitality and retail sectors [4][75]. - The shift in consumer behavior from local to cross-province consumption is further concentrating employment in the service sector in the western regions, with significant growth in consumer spending in these areas [5][80]. Group 3: Wage Growth in Private and Flexible Employment - Trend 3: Some private and flexible employment sectors are experiencing wage increases, particularly in the service industry, where private sector wage growth is higher than in non-private sectors, with education and retail showing increases of 8.9% and 5.3% respectively [6][96]. - The average wage growth for private sector employees has decreased to 1.7%, while flexible employment, particularly in new roles like ride-hailing drivers and delivery personnel, has seen a rise in average monthly income to 10,506 yuan, significantly higher than traditional employment [7][114]. - New flexible employment roles are characterized by higher pay but also increased work intensity, with platform-based workers averaging 54.3 hours per week, compared to traditional workers [7][122].

Core Insights - National Energy Administration reported that from January to April, the total electricity consumption in China reached 3.16 trillion kilowatt-hours, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.1%, with an increase of 0.6 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] - In April, the total electricity consumption was 772.1 billion kilowatt-hours, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.7%, which is significantly higher than the growth levels observed in January and February [1] Industry Analysis - The primary industry saw a rapid increase in electricity consumption, with a total of 42.4 billion kilowatt-hours from January to April, marking a year-on-year growth of 10.0% [1] - The secondary industry maintained growth, consuming 2.05 trillion kilowatt-hours, which is a year-on-year increase of 2.3%, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing sectors leading in growth rates [1] - The tertiary industry also experienced significant growth, with electricity consumption reaching 585.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 6.0%, and an acceleration of 0.8 percentage points compared to the first quarter [1] Sector-Specific Insights - In April, the tertiary industry's electricity consumption was 139 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [2] - The information transmission/software and IT services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 15.1%, boosted by the rapid development of mobile internet, big data, and cloud computing, with the internet and related services growing by 27.8% [2] - The wholesale and retail sector maintained double-digit growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.8%, while the electric vehicle sector, particularly the charging and swapping services, experienced a remarkable growth of 44.3% [2]

Group 1: Labor Flow - In 2024, the total number of migrant workers reached 300 million, accounting for 41% of total employment in China[4] - The net inflow of migrant workers to the eastern region decreased by approximately 4.5 million compared to 2019, indicating a slowdown in labor flow[4] - The net inflow of migrant workers in 2024 was concentrated in the eastern region, with 4.83 million, a year-on-year increase of 410,000[4] Group 2: Employment Trends - In 2024, employment in the construction industry decreased by 2.96 million, while manufacturing and retail sectors saw increases of 1.8 million and 1.49 million, respectively[5] - The construction industry accounted for 14.3% of total migrant worker employment, while manufacturing and retail accounted for 27.9% and 13.6% respectively[5] - Overall, migrant workers are shifting from construction to manufacturing and the tertiary sector[5] Group 3: Wage Dynamics - The average disposable income for migrant workers in 2024 was 4,961 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, but still 1.5 percentage points lower than the national average[6] - Wage growth varied significantly by industry, with construction wages increasing by 4.6%, while service sectors like transportation and repair saw lower growth rates of 1.5% and 3% respectively[6] - The construction industry is categorized as "shrinking but maintaining price," with a job growth rate of -6.9% but a wage increase of 2.2 percentage points[6] Group 4: Consumption Patterns - Migrant workers' consumption has shifted from goods to services, with significant growth in education, housing, and entertainment expenditures[9] - The enrollment rate for migrant workers' children aged 3-5 in 2024 was 94.5%, up from 90.9% in 2023, indicating increased spending on education[9] - The average living space for migrant workers increased to 24.7 square meters per person, reflecting a rise in housing expenditure despite a slight decline in rental prices[9] Group 5: Economic Perception - The GDP growth rate from the perspective of migrant workers was consistently higher than the official GDP growth from 2020 to 2024, indicating a K-shaped recovery in consumption[10] - By the first quarter of 2025, the GDP growth rates for migrant workers and the official GDP were nearly aligned at 5.47% and 5.40% respectively, suggesting a convergence of economic experiences[10] - The future opportunities for consumption will largely depend on policy direction, as previous recovery patterns appear to have ended[10]

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...