MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 来源：人民财讯 转自：北京日报客户端 人民财讯1月6日电，指数早间震荡，创业板指表现弱势。截至午间收盘，沪指涨1.14%，创10年来新 高，深证成指涨0.81%，创业板指跌0.04%。盘面上，有色金属板块走强，利源股份、常铝股份涨停； 保险、证券板块活跃，华林证券涨停，新华保险涨超7%。此外，能源金属、化肥、小金属、光伏、贵 金属、化纤、钛白粉、人脑工程概念等板块涨幅居前；美容护理、CPO、铜缆高速连接概念等板块跌幅 居前。全市场超3600只个股上涨。 ...

有色板块6日盘中强势拉升，钴、镍概念股表现亮眼。截至发稿，贵研铂业、常铝股份、锡业股份涨 停，华友钴业涨近8%，寒锐钴业等涨超5%。 中信建投证券指出，美国1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模军事行动，美国此举受到国际社会强烈谴 责，令国际局势更为紧张，驱动避险资金及央行对黄金的配置继续，强化贵金属牛市格局。基本金属方 面，新年伊始，铜供应端出现矿场工人罢工，令原本就紧张的供应矛盾更为凸出；电解铝端的供应面临 减产隐患，伦铝率先打开整数位价格上方的空间；印尼镍矿商提议削减镍矿配额，淡水河谷印尼因2026 年产量计划获批延迟暂停采矿作业，支撑镍价底部回升。 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views - The overall sentiment for copper is that the upward trend may slow down due to factors such as squeezed downstream demand and inventory accumulation, despite strong support from supply - side factors. For aluminum, it is expected to continue to be range - bound with an upward bias. Lead is likely to be weak in the short - term, zinc is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term and follow the non - ferrous sector strongly in the short - term. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite. Nickel's short - term bottom may have appeared. Carbonate lithium is subject to high volatility and is recommended to be observed or lightly traded. Alumina is recommended to be observed, and short positions can be considered under certain conditions. Stainless steel may be advisable to go long at low prices. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [2][5][8][10][12][14][18][21][24][27] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: After the domestic holiday, copper prices continued to be strong. LME copper 3M rose 5.03% to $13,087/ton, and SHFE copper main contract closed at 102,650 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic social and bonded - area inventories increased. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong changed from discount to premium. The import loss of SHFE copper spot widened, and the refined - scrap copper price difference increased [1] - **Strategy View**: With a loose US financial market liquidity, mild domestic policy stimulus, and geopolitical factors, the sentiment is favorable. However, high prices are squeezing downstream demand, and there is inventory accumulation pressure. The upward trend of copper prices is expected to slow down. The reference range for SHFE copper main contract is 101,200 - 105,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,800 - 13,400/ton [2] Aluminum - **Market Information**: Both domestic and international aluminum prices accelerated their upward movement. LME aluminum rose 2.28% to $3,090/ton, and SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,165 yuan/ton. SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions increased significantly, and futures warehouse receipts increased. Domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and the processing fee of aluminum rods decreased. The spot in the East China region was at a discount to futures, and LME aluminum inventory decreased [4] - **Strategy View**: The high prices of precious metals and copper are expected to drive up aluminum prices. Although high aluminum prices suppress downstream production, low overseas inventory and supply - side disturbances support the price. Aluminum prices are expected to continue to be range - bound with an upward bias. The reference range for SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,700 - 24,400 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,050 - 3,140/ton [5] Lead - **Market Information**: SHFE lead index rose 0.27% to 17,403 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose to $2,020/ton. The refined - scrap lead price difference was 150 yuan/ton. Domestic social lead inventory increased, and LME lead inventory and注销仓单 were recorded [7] - **Strategy View**: The visible lead ore inventory increased, the primary lead production rate remained high, and the recycled lead production rate slightly increased. Downstream battery enterprises' production rate decreased marginally, and domestic lead inventory stopped falling. The lead price is near the upper limit of the oscillation range, and it is expected to be weak in the short - term [8] Zinc - **Market Information**: SHFE zinc index rose 2.34% to 23,849 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose to $3,172.5/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory increased. The zinc ore visible inventory decreased, and the zinc concentrate TC decreased again but at a slower pace [9] - **Strategy View**: The zinc ore visible inventory decreased, and zinc smelting profit stabilized. Domestic zinc inventory decreased, and the SHFE - LME ratio increased. After the winter stockpiling, the domestic zinc ore supply may be more abundant. The zinc price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the medium - term and follow the non - ferrous sector strongly in the short - term [10] Tin - **Market Information**: On January 5, 2026, SHFE tin main contract closed at 334,370 yuan/ton, up 3.55%. The smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi showed different situations in production. The downstream consumer electronics demand was in the off - season, but the new - energy vehicle and AI server orders supported the tin solder enterprises' production rate. The spot market had weak purchasing willingness, and the tin inventory increased for three consecutive weeks [11] - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market has weak demand and supply improvement expectations, the low downstream inventory limits the bargaining power. The price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 300,000 - 350,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $39,000 - 43,000/ton [12] Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 5, nickel prices oscillated. SHFE nickel main contract closed at 134,100 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The spot premiums were stable, and the nickel ore prices were stable. The nickel iron price continued to rise [13] - **Strategy View**: The nickel surplus pressure is still large, but due to Indonesia's policies, the short - term bottom of nickel prices may have appeared. It is recommended to observe. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 110,000 - 140,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $13,000 - 16,500/ton [14] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The Five - Mineral Steel Union's carbonate lithium spot index rose, and the LC2605 contract price also increased. The battery - grade carbonate lithium premium was - 1,750 yuan [17] - **Strategy View**: On Monday, carbonate lithium opened and closed higher, and the total positions increased. The domestic carbonate lithium inventory decreased, and the market has optimistic expectations for the supply - demand pattern in 2026. However, the price transmission to the end - users is incomplete. It is recommended to observe or lightly trade. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2605 contract is 125,500 - 134,500 yuan/ton [18] Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 5, 2026, the alumina index fell 0.22% to 2,749 yuan/ton. The positions increased, and the basis showed that the Shandong spot was at a discount to the main contract. The overseas price fell, and the import loss was reported. The futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [20] - **Strategy View**: After the rainy season, the ore supply from Guinea is expected to increase, and the alumina smelting capacity is in surplus. Although there are expectations of supply - side policies, the price rebound faces difficulties. It is recommended to observe, and short positions can be considered if there is no actual production cut. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,400 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21] Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Monday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,075 yuan/ton, down 0.38%. The positions increased. The spot prices in different markets showed different trends, and the raw material prices such as nickel and chromium were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased [23] - **Strategy View**: In late December, the stainless steel price was driven up by the nickel price. The supply from steel mills was limited, and the inventory decreased. The nickel iron price was firm, but the terminal demand was weak. If the nickel ore supply quota is tightened, the price may rise further. It is advisable to go long at low prices and closely monitor policy implementation [24] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast aluminum alloy price accelerated its upward movement. The AD2603 contract closed up 3.04% to 22,520 yuan/ton. The positions and trading volume increased, and the warehouse receipts slightly increased. The domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [26] - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and there are supply - side disturbances. The price is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias [27]

| | 操作评级 | 2026年01月05日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | な女女 | F3047773 Z0014087 | | | | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ☆☆☆ 铸造铝合金 文文文 | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ☆☆☆ | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | 女女女 | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ★☆☆ | F03099436 Z0021022 | | | | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | なな☆ | | | 多晶硅 | なな女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 2026年首个交易日，沪铜增仓上涨，再破10万，基本金属全板块飘红。市场关注热点配置板块，尤其贵金属与 有色金属板块资金的抢跑情绪。12月下旬，国内现货端背离明显，但首个交易日，SMM现铜上 ...

证券日报网讯 1月5日，罗平锌电在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司将向优秀企业学习，共筑竞 争力。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...

格隆汇1月5日丨白银有色(601212.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，近两年，公司无产品出口欧盟国家。 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：关注地缘风险 【市场资讯】1）美国空袭委内瑞拉，持续一小时，特朗普称抓获马杜罗及其夫人。与马杜 罗关系密切的 CIA 线人，为美军通风报信。特朗普称将"管理"委内瑞拉直至实施"安全"过渡， 深度介入石油产业。2）外交部发言人就美国强行控制委内瑞拉总统马杜罗夫妇答记者问。 中方呼吁美方确保马杜罗总统夫妇人身安全，立即释放马杜罗总统和夫人，停止颠覆委内 瑞拉政权，通过对话谈判解决问题。3）俄罗斯强烈敦促美国释放马杜罗。4）伊朗最高领 袖: 应与抗议者进行对话，但骚乱行径必须得到制止。特朗普威胁"干涉伊朗骚乱"，伊朗高 官回应：美国干涉伊朗内部事务将"破坏整个地区稳定"。5）商品基准指数"重置"在即，面 临抛售风险，金银开年"冲高回落"。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，12 月制造业 PMI 录得 50.1%，自 4 月以来首次重返扩张区间，大 幅超季节性预期，表现显著强于市场预期。其核心驱动为供需两端同步回暖，价格端显示 反内卷政策对价格企稳回升作用关键，建筑业 PMI 亦受天气与施工进度因素推动明显反弹。 整体来看，PMI 超预期表现源于企业政策预期与前期政策性金融工具落地，后市需关注超 长期特别国 ...

| | 200 | | --- | --- | | - | C | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 委内瑞拉总统被活捉，这一事件影响深远，黄金的避险属性将继续获得资金流入交 | | | 长线持有 | 易，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑，不确定性持续存在，央行 | | ★ | | 继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。 | | 白银 | | 海外市场多方余力仍然较多，短期情绪尚可，今日开盘关注黄金对于白银的带动， | | | 长线持有 | 长期来看市场押注降息持续、供需缺口连续 5 年持续，全球大财政均对白银长期有 | | ★★ | | 利，另外资源交易也是 2026 年一大主题，长期做多逻辑不变。 | | | | 全球地缘剧变，美国闪击委内瑞拉，生擒马杜罗，美国非农数据即将公布，市场避 | | 铜 | 长线持有 | 险情绪上升，短期市场波动或加大，南美铜资源或成为地缘博弈筹码，加剧全球铜 | | ★ | | 供应扭曲和紊乱，铜或易涨难跌，中长期对铜依旧看好。 | | 锌 | | 海内外锌锭库存去化，但随着春节假期临近，需求逐步减弱， ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2026/01/05 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/12/25 -500 5373 95805 59083 - 422.09 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/26 -525 6208 111703 58647 - 2945.00 55.0 54.0 - - - 2025/12/29 -435 6790 111703 65878 -1855.70 -146.77 53.0 52.0 31.35 154575 44075 2025/12/30 -380 6108 111703 71738 -1171.20 -225.51 51.0 49.0 39.87 149475 39175 2025/12/31 -335 5700 111703 81775 -1808.32 -74.26 51.0 49.0 30.39 147425 36825 变化 45 -408 0 10037 -637.12 151. ...

宏观 局势缓和 政策发力 2025年，全球市场在地缘冲突、关税扰动与科技叙事交织中运行，黄金与权益资产罕见地共振齐涨，美 元与原油价格走势趋同，市场特征突出。以美国关税政策的威胁与让步为节点，市场经历了"特朗普交 易逆转—风险偏好回归—股金齐涨—'TACO交易'"四个阶段，展现了重大事件驱动下的高波动性。 展望2026年，预计中美博弈节奏在前三季度有所缓和，进入阶段性"缓和期"，但美国中期选举前后风险 可能再度上升。在此背景下，中美双方均将强化财政支出以支持经济，并为未来博弈积蓄力量。 在经济运行上，美国处于信用周期下行阶段，力图通过政策组合扭转颓势。中国处于新一轮信用扩张初 期，关注财政政策能否有效激发民间投资活力。 大类资产方面，预计美元延续弱势，人民币相应走强；美债利率在降息预期下趋于下行；美股整体看 涨，走势或前低后高；有色金属受益于全球流动性宽松与战略需求，有望表现强势；黄金长期逻辑稳 固，但短期需警惕拥挤交易风险。主要风险在于地缘政治冲突反复、国内政策传导效果不足以及美国经 济超预期衰退。 贵金属 根基稳固 牛市延续 2025年贵金属表现强势，金、银价格多次创下历史新高。驱动因素从上半年的避险与滞 ...