铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/8/15 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5500 | 0 | 0 | 5800 | 主力合约 | 5744 | -50 | -90 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5450 | 0 | -50 | 5800 | 01合约 | 5904 | -60 | -108 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5500 | 0 | 0 | 5830 | 05合约 | 6038 | -64 | -52 | | | 陕西#72 | 5450 | 0 | 0 | 5750 | 09合约 | 5744 | -50 | -90 | | | 陕西#75 | 5800 | 0 | -50 | | 主力月基差 | 56 | 50 | 90 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 ...

2025年08月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：宽幅震荡 | 3 | | 硅铁：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：板块情绪偏弱，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：偏强震荡 | 7 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 8 月 14 日 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | 12601 | | 795. 0 | -6. 0 | -0.75% | | | | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 452. 419 | 8, 620 | ...

铁合金早报 仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 宁夏#72 5500 0 0 5800 主力合约 5794 -26 -114 内蒙#72 5450 0 -50 5800 01合约 5964 -48 -104 青海#72 5500 0 50 5830 05合约 6102 -34 -32 陕西#72 5450 0 0 5750 09合约 5794 -26 -114 陕西#75 5800 0 -50 主力月基差 6 26 114 江苏#72 5550 -50 -50 1-5月差 -138 -14 -72 天津#72 5900 50 -150 5-9月差 308 -8 82 天津#72 1025 0 0 9-1月差 -170 22 -10 天津#75 1075 0 0 双硅主力价差 -280 10 -92 内蒙#6517 5800 0 -50 6100 主力合约 6074 -36 -22 宁夏#6517 5900 50 100 6300 01合约 6162 -44 -32 广西#6517 5900 30 0 6390 05合约 6214 -42 -14 贵州#6517 5870 20 20 64 ...

大宗商品研究所 黑色金属研发报告 F03134259 投资咨询证号： Z0021009 黑色金属日报 2025 年 8 月 13 日 铁合金日报 第一部分 市场信息 研究员：周涛 期货从业证号： 联系方式： :zhoutao_qh1@chinastock. com.cn | 期 货 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 成交量 | 日变化 | 持仓量 | 日变化 | | SF主力合约 | 5970 | 150 | 62 | 223621 | 25074 | 108388 | 86379 | | SM主力合约 | 6074 | -36 | -22 | 258168 | -849 | 187130 | -16808 | | 现 货 | | | | | | | | | 硅铁 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | 硅锰 | 现货价格 | 日变动 | 周变动 | | 72%FeSi内蒙 | 5550 | 0 | -50 | 硅锰6517内蒙 | 5800 | 0 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term macro environment for steel is positive, with supply contraction expectations, stable cost support, and the steel futures market may show a volatile and upward - biased pattern. The long - term trend depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - Iron ore prices are bounded, with short - term stable fundamentals and long - term focus on hot - rolled coil inventory pressure. The current oscillation needs macro changes to break [20]. - For coal and coke, although there are import substitution effects, considering policy expectations and support for finished product prices, the medium - to - long - term trend is not pessimistic [29]. - The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. In the short - term, there are still expectations of supply contraction, and in the long - term, demand support may weaken [45]. - The supply of soda ash exceeds demand, with high inventory and weak demand. Attention should be paid to cost fluctuations and price cuts by alkali plants [55]. - The glass market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory and weak sales. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [80]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Supply**: Coal mine over - production governance and the "276 - working - day" policy support costs. There are expectations of supply contraction due to restrictions during the Tangshan parade [3]. - **Demand**: Steel export orders have improved slightly, but the price inversion still exists. The market depends on the actual demand during the peak season [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased compared to the previous day. The basis and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4][8][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Trend**: Iron ore prices are in a following state, with limited fundamental contradictions. The anti - spread is strengthening, and the price range is bounded [20]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The basis and some spot prices changed [21]. - **Fundamental Data**: Daily hot - metal production is stable at around 2.4 million tons, and port inventories are maintained. There are small changes in shipping and other data [24]. Coal and Coke - **Supply**: There are supply - side disturbances such as coal mine over - production inspections in Shanxi, but the import substitution effect is significant [29]. - **Demand**: Due to the support of finished product prices, steel mill profits are resilient, and the medium - to - long - term demand for coal and coke is not pessimistic [29]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and costs of coal and coke futures and spot prices changed compared to the previous day [33][34][35]. Ferroalloys - **Market Trend**: The price of ferroalloys follows coal price fluctuations. There are still expectations of supply contraction in the short - term, and long - term demand support may weaken [45]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the basis, spreads, and spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese changed compared to the previous day [46][48]. Soda Ash - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Supply is high, demand is weak, inventory is at a record high, and the market is in a state of supply exceeding demand [55]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads also changed [56]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The market is in a weak balance, with high intermediate inventory, weak sales, and pressure on spot prices [80]. - **Price Data**: On August 13, 2025, the prices of glass futures contracts decreased compared to the previous day, and the spreads and basis changed [81]. - **Sales Data**: The sales rate in different regions shows certain fluctuations [82].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | SM主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 6,074.00 | -36.00↓ | SF主力合约收盘价（日，元/吨） | 5,794.00 | -26.00↓ | | | SM期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 617,712.00 | -8095.00↓ | SF期货合约持仓量（日，手） | 456,768.00 | -22810.00↓ | | 期货市场 | 锰硅前20名净持仓（日，手） | -104,374.00 | -1083.00↓ | 硅铁前20名净持仓（日，手） | -34,653.00 | +1088.00↑ | | | SM1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 88.00 | -8.00↓ | SF1-9月合约价差（日，元/吨） | 170.00 | -22.00↓ | | SM | 仓单（日，张） | 75,520.00 | -187.00↓ | SF 仓单（日，张） | 19,998.00 | +379.00↑ | | ...

铁合金早报 2025/8/13 价格 供应 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：主力合约：收盘价（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 CZCE：硅锰：基差（江苏）（钢联口径） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1000 -500 0 500 1000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 硅锰主力月 内蒙基差（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/ ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs, with investment advice such as "oscillating repeatedly," "broadly oscillating," and "bullishly oscillating" [5][10][14]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing price was 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan or 0.82% from the previous day; the previous day's position was 271,889 lots, a decrease of 36,188 lots; spot prices of imported and domestic ores all increased [6]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: -1 [6]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating due to sector sentiment resonance [10]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,250 yuan/ton and 3,465 yuan/ton, up 1.09% and 1.29% respectively; spot prices in various regions showed different degrees of increase or remained unchanged [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In late July 2025, the steel inventory of key steel enterprises decreased by 5.6% month-on-month; in July, automobile production and sales decreased month-on-month but increased year-on-year; in late July, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 7.4% month-on-month, pig iron decreased by 4.5% month-on-month, and steel increased by 0.5% month-on-month; according to the weekly data of Steel Union on August 7, the output of rebar increased by 10.12 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 7.9 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties increased by 23.47 tons [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot-rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend Forecast**: Broadly oscillating [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of ferrosilicon 2509 and 2510 were 5,830 yuan/ton and 5,820 yuan/ton respectively; the previous day's futures closing prices of silicomanganese 2509 and 2510 were 6,100 yuan/ton and 6,112 yuan/ton respectively; spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,450 yuan/ton and 5,800 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 8, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Qinghai decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the price of 75 ferrosilicon in Gansu increased by 50 yuan/ton; the price of 6517 silicomanganese in the north was 5,850 - 5,950 yuan/ton, and in the south was 5,900 - 6,000 yuan/ton; as of August 8, the total manganese ore inventory increased by 8.83 tons month-on-month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend Forecast**: Bullishly oscillating [17]. - **Fundamental Data**: The previous day's futures closing prices of JM2509 and J2509 were 1,106.5 yuan/ton and 1,681 yuan/ton, up 3.5% and 1.7% respectively; most spot prices remained unchanged [17]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [19]. Logs - **Trend Forecast**: Oscillating repeatedly [20]. - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of the 2509, 2511, and 2601 contracts showed different degrees of increase or decrease; most spot prices remained unchanged [21]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 9, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price index was flat year-on-year in July [23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 [23].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-08-12锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2509： 1.基本面：上周硅锰市场在成本、供应、需求等多方面因素的共同作用下，呈现出高位震荡的态势。预计短期内，这种震 2 荡态势仍将维持。后续需持续密切关注锰硅期货盘面的走势变化以及河钢招标定价情况；中性。 2.基差：现货价6000元/吨，09合约基差-100元/吨，现货贴水期货。偏空。 3.库存：全国63家独立硅锰企业样本库存221800吨；全国50家钢厂库存平均可用天数15.49天。中性。 4.盘面：MA20向上，09合约期价收于MA20上方。偏多。 5.主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增。偏空。 6.预期：预计本周锰硅价格震荡运行；SM2509：6000-6200震荡运行。 0吨 2000000吨 ...

4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：内蒙古（日） 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：青海 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 72%FeSi：市场价：宁夏 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 4500 5500 6500 7500 8500 9500 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/0 ...