成本支撑较强，多单可继续持有 银河期货研究所 周涛 期货从业证号：F03134259 投资咨询证号：Z0021009 目录 第二章 核心逻辑分析 4 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 2 第三章 周度数据追踪 6 1 资料来源：Wind Bloomberg Mysteel GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 硅铁方面，供应端样本企业开工率与产量小幅反弹，但绝对值仍处于同期低位水平，宁夏部分产区临时停电导致部分产量损失，下 期统计数据或再度下降。需求方面，钢材库存开始季节性累积，钢材产量也在春节前季节性下降，但铁水产量相对平稳，原料端需 求暂有支撑。成本端方面，1月电价逐步结算，产区铁合金电价总体平稳，部分产区有所上调。近期受贵金属、有色等龙头商品暴跌 冲击情绪，但自身成本端支撑较强，此前报告中建议的多单可继续持有。 锰硅方面，供应端开工 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore: As steel mills' inventory replenishment nears completion, ore prices will fluctuate downward [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Their apparent demands decline month - on - month, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][9][10]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: There is a game between fundamentals and sentiment, and prices will fluctuate widely [2][14]. - Coke and coking coal: Prices will fluctuate at high levels [2][18]. - Steam coal: News of production cuts in Indonesia stimulates the import market, and domestic coal prices will remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][22]. - Logs: Prices will consolidate with fluctuations [2][25]. 3. Summary by Directory Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of I2605 was 768.5 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton or 1.66%. The positions increased by 9,456 lots to 525,113 lots. Spot prices of imported ores such as PB and super - special decreased, while domestic ores remained stable. The basis and spreads had minor changes [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1, indicating a bearish view [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,101 yuan/ton and 3,263 yuan/ton respectively, down 9 yuan/ton and 13 yuan/ton, with decreases of 0.29% and 0.40%. Spot prices in most regions remained stable. There were changes in basis and spreads [10]. - **Macro and Industry News**: According to February 5th steel union weekly data, rebar production decreased by 8.15 tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 0.05 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 59.24 tons. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 28.76 tons, and that of hot - rolled coil decreased by 5.87 tons. In late January 2026, the average daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel decreased by 2.2%, pig iron decreased by 3.0%, and steel increased by 3.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises decreased by 8.8% compared with the previous ten - day period [11][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: The prices of silicon - iron 72 and 75 in some regions increased. The closing prices and positions of relevant futures contracts had changes. There were also changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The proportion of coal - fired power generation units' fixed - cost recovery through capacity tariffs will be increased to at least 50%. UMK's March 2026 manganese ore price for China increased. River Steel's February 75B ferrosilicon procurement price remained the same as in January, but the quantity decreased. In January, the electricity price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia showed a downward trend, while in Qinghai, it increased [14][15][16]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices of JM2605 and J2605 were 1,172 yuan/ton and 1,738 yuan/ton respectively, down 37 yuan/ton and 32 yuan/ton, with decreases of 3.1% and 1.8%. Spot prices of some coking coals and cokes changed slightly, and there were changes in basis and spreads [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5th, the CCI metallurgical coal index of China Coal Resources Network showed a decline in some coal prices. The coke market was running weakly, with steel mills' procurement enthusiasm being average [18]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [20]. Steam Coal - **Fundamentals**: The prices of steam coal in different regions and ports had slight changes, and the long - term agreement prices decreased [23]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On February 5th, the port steam coal market was stable with a slight upward trend. Near the Spring Festival, the spot market showed weak supply and demand, and port inventories continued to decline. News of import coal reduction led to an increase in import coal prices, providing support for the domestic market. There were also reports of potential production cuts in Indonesian coal mines [24]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The closing prices, trading volumes, and positions of log futures contracts had different degrees of change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable [25]. - **Macro and Industry News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, and some real - estate enterprises no longer need to report "three red lines" indicators monthly [27]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral view [28].

黑色供应周报-铁合金 中泰期货研究所 黑色分析师:董雪珊 2026年2月6日 全国硅铁周度产量:万吨 14 l 13 12 11 0 0 0 0 下载 365 8 下午餐 早餐早餐店 早餐早餐店加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐加盟 早餐早餐店 累计同比(右轴) 2023 2024 -2022 2025 2026 累计同比(右轴) 2025 -2022 2023 2024 2026 内蒙古-硅锰日均产量:万吨 内蒙古-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.60 0.60 1.50 0.55 1.40 0.50 1.30 1.20 0.45 1.10 0.40 1.00 0.35 0.90 0.80 0.30 一篇： 2017年 12月 12:58 来源： 2017 11:58 11:58 11 12 12 11:58 11 12 11 11 = 2 2023 2024 2025 2026 2022 2023 2024 2025 ·2026 宁夏-硅锰日均产量:万吨 宁夏-硅铁日均产量:万吨 1.00 0.50 0.45 0.90 0.40 0.80 0.35 0.30 0.70 0.25 0.60 0.20 0.50 0.15 ...

黑色建材日报 2026-02-06 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in different regions on February 6, 2026, are as follows: 5300 yuan in Ningxia, 5370 yuan in Inner Mongolia, 5300 yuan in Qinghai, 5300 yuan in Shaanxi, and 5750 yuan in Jiangsu and Tianjin. The price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi is 6000 yuan, and the export price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin is 1055 US dollars, while that of 75 silicon iron is 1115 US dollars. There are also price changes on a daily and weekly basis [1]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of 6517 silicon manganese in different regions on February 6, 2026, are: 5650 yuan in Inner Mongolia, 5610 yuan in Ningxia, 5750 yuan in Guangxi, and 5700 yuan in Guizhou and Yunnan. The price of 6014 silicon manganese in Guangxi is 5100 yuan. There are corresponding daily and weekly price changes [1]. - The report also shows the historical price trends of silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2022 - 2026, including market prices in different regions, export and import prices, and prices of related contracts [2][6]. Supply - For silicon iron, the production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 are presented. The production of silicon iron in China shows certain trends over time [4]. - For silicon manganese, the weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 is shown, as well as the procurement volume and price of 6517 silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group on a monthly basis [6]. Demand - For silicon iron, factors related to demand include the production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume of FeSi75 - B by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon iron. These data are presented from 2022 - 2026 [4]. - For silicon manganese, the demand data include the estimated demand in China (Steel Union's caliber), the production of crude steel in China, and the export volume of silicon manganese from 2022 - 2026 [4][7]. Inventory - For silicon iron, the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, including inventory in different regions such as Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi on a weekly basis, as well as the inventory average available days in different regions and the total inventory (including warehouse receipts and effective forecasts) are presented from 2022 - 2026 [5]. - For silicon manganese, the inventory data include the total warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them, as well as the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China on a weekly basis and the inventory average available days in China from 2022 - 2026 [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the cost - related factors include electricity prices in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi), the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi, etc. The profit data include the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the export profit of 75 - grade silicon iron from 2022 - 2026 [5]. - For silicon manganese, the profit data include the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the disk - based profit in Guangxi and Ningxia from 2022 - 2026 [7].

Group 1: Economic Indicators - 30 provinces in China have set GDP growth targets for 2026, with several major economic provinces aiming for over 5% growth. Shanghai's government report indicates a target growth of around 5% for 2026 [4][16] - China's official manufacturing PMI for January is 49.3%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points month-on-month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity due to seasonal factors and insufficient market demand [4][16] Group 2: Shipbuilding Industry - In 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume reached 53.69 million deadweight tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.4%, accounting for 56.1% of the global total. However, new orders decreased by 4.6% year-on-year [4][16] Group 3: Steel Market Overview - On February 5, the national main port iron ore transactions totaled 986,000 tons, a decrease of 4.6% month-on-month, while the transaction volume of construction steel from 237 mainstream traders dropped by 22.7% [5][17] - The profitability rate of 247 steel mills is 39.39%, remaining stable compared to the previous week, with an average daily pig iron output of 2.2858 million tons, a slight increase of 0.6 tons [6][18] - Total supply of five major steel products is 8.199 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 32,700 tons, while total inventory increased by 4.6% to 13.3775 million tons [6][18] Group 4: Rebar and Hot Rolled Steel - Rebar production decreased by 81,500 tons to 1.9168 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 440,400 tons to 5.1957 million tons. Demand has decreased significantly due to seasonal factors [7][19] - Hot rolled steel production slightly decreased by 500 tons to 3.0916 million tons, with total inventory increasing by 36,200 tons. The market is expected to continue experiencing narrow fluctuations as demand declines [8][20] Group 5: Alloy Market - Alloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a limited range, with overall supply remaining low and production changes being minimal. Demand from steel mills has slightly increased, but recovery progress is constrained by profit margins and safety production [10][22]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-05 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 郎志杰 从业资格号：F3030112 交易咨询号：Z0023202 0755-23375125 langzj@wkqh.cn 万林新 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3110 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 11 元/吨（0.354%）。当日注册仓单 16931 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 179.82 万手，环比减少 6899 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总价格 为 3160 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约收盘 价为 3274 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 9 元/吨（0.275%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合 约持仓量为 148.27 万手 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a state of seasonal contraction in trading volume, with prices remaining stable and the market gradually entering a dormant state. It is advisable to approach it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese fluctuate with market sentiment. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate [3]. - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. For coking coal and coke, it is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Spot prices are stable, trading volume continues to decline, and the market is gradually entering a dormant state. Due to seasonal factors, supply and demand are both weak. Steel mills have profit margins and the intention to resume production, but the actual resumption may be slow. Traders are not very willing to take open positions for winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. The strategy is to view it with a unilateral oscillatory mindset, and the hot-rolled coil basis is favorable for spot-futures positions, allowing for rolling operations in hot-rolled coil spot-futures positive spreads [2]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Prices fluctuate with market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply and demand are both weak. In the short term, the market is sentiment-driven, and prices are expected to oscillate. Macroscopically, domestic macro policies are being introduced at an accelerated pace, and industrial policies are expected to have an impact on supply and cost support [3]. Coking Coal and Coke - The suspension of spot coal exports by Indonesian miners has led to a significant increase in coal-related assets. The coke market is running stably, and coking coal auctions show mixed results. The market has entered the off-season, and industrial data is generally weak. It is recommended to seize the opportunity of the rising market to establish spot-futures positive spread positions [6]. Iron Ore - The long-term pressure on iron ore inventory remains significant. Steel mills' iron ore restocking is nearly complete, and after the positive effects of restocking are fully digested, the pressure from port inventory will still be the root cause of iron ore pressure. It is suggested that medium- and long-term investors enter short positions at resistance levels [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Directory Price - The latest prices of 72% FeSi in different regions are as follows: 5300 in Ningxia, 5350 in Inner Mongolia, 5300 in Qinghai, 5300 in Shaanxi, 5750 in Jiangsu, and 5750 in Tianjin. The latest price of 75% FeSi in Shaanxi is 6000, and in Tianjin is 1115. The latest price of 6517 FeSi in Inner Mongolia is 5650, in Ningxia is 5610, in Guangxi is 5750, in Guizhou is 5700, and in Yunnan is 5700. The latest price of 6014 FeSi in Guangxi is 5100 [1]. - The closing prices of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron futures contracts in different years from 2022 - 2026 are presented, including主力合约, 01, 05, 09 contracts, etc. [1][2][5] - The price differences between different grades and regions of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are also provided, such as the basis, month - to - month spreads, and the spread between silicon - iron and silicon - manganese [1][2][5] Supply - The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China are shown, including monthly and weekly production, and capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026 [3]. - The production data of silicon - manganese in China, including weekly production, and the procurement data of HeSteel Group (quantity and price) from 2022 - 2026 are presented [5] Demand - The demand - related data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, such as the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the export volume of silicon - iron, and the demand for silicon - manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 [3][5][6] Inventory - The inventory data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, including the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in different regions, the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the average available days of inventory in different regions from 2022 - 2026 [4][6] Cost and Profit - The cost - related data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, such as electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the market price of manganese ore from 2022 - 2026 [4][5] - The profit - related data of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese are provided, including the production profit, the profit converted to the main contract, and the export profit from 2022 - 2026 [4][6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The report provides investment outlooks and fundamental data for various commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs. The outlooks range from narrow or wide fluctuations to high-level oscillations, with some commodities showing potential for price increases or being affected by specific news events [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Outlook**: Expected to experience a tug-of-war between expectations and realities, with prices fluctuating within a narrow range [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices rose slightly, with the I2605 contract closing at 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 0.51%. Spot prices for most imported and domestic ores increased slightly, while some remained unchanged. Basis and spread values showed minor fluctuations [4]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [4]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) [5]. Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coils - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience wide fluctuations [2][7]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for RB2605 and HC2605 rose slightly, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices in most regions remained stable, with minor price adjustments in a few areas. Basis and spread values also showed minor fluctuations [7]. - **News**: Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data for January 29th showed mixed trends. Some steel product prices and production volumes had year-on-year changes.必和必拓's first-half iron ore production hit a record high, and it accepted price cuts in some contracts. China's steel imports in December 2025 increased, and the government implemented export license management for some steel products [8][9]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Outlook**: Both are expected to experience a tug-of-war between fundamentals and sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely [2][11]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese contracts showed small increases. Spot prices for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had some adjustments, and various price spreads also changed [12]. - **News**: The proportion of coal-fired power generation fixed costs recovered through capacity tariffs will be increased. Silicomanganese and ferrosilicon prices and procurement data were reported, and electricity prices in some regions changed. South Africa's manganese ore exports increased in December 2025 [11][13]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [13]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Outlook**: Both are expected to oscillate at high levels [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for JM2605 and J2605 rose significantly, with trading volumes and open interest showing increases. Spot prices for most coking coal and coke remained stable, with some price increases. Basis and spread values showed significant changes [14]. - **News**: CCI metallurgical coal index prices decreased slightly. Coking coal online auctions had a 26% failure rate, with an average premium of 19.33 yuan/ton [14]. - **Trend Strength**: 0 (neutral) for both [16]. Thermal Coal - **Outlook**: Indonesian production cut news has stimulated the import market, but domestic coal prices are expected to remain stable before the Spring Festival [2][18]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic and overseas thermal coal prices showed some fluctuations, with some prices remaining unchanged and others decreasing [19]. - **News**: The government issued a notice on improving the power generation capacity tariff mechanism. The North Port market sentiment was slightly stronger, but trading was light. Indonesian coal production cuts may support low-calorie coal prices, but the actual scale is yet to be confirmed [20]. Logs - **Outlook**: Prices are expected to rise slightly [2][21]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices for log contracts showed small increases, with trading volumes and open interest showing some changes. Spot prices for most log varieties remained stable, with some showing minor price increases [21]. - **News**: China's January RatingDog manufacturing PMI was 50.3, in line with expectations. Some real estate companies are no longer required to report "three red lines" indicators monthly, but troubled companies still need to report financial metrics [23]. - **Trend Strength**: 1 (slightly bullish) [24].