1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates and declines, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis [2]. - The copper concentrate processing fee index drops again. Due to Chile raising the premium for copper spot in China and domestic CSPT members planning to reduce the capacity load of mined copper by 10% next year, market concerns about the tight supply of copper ore intensify [2]. - On the supply side, the good revenue from smelting by - product sulfuric acid offsets part of the high raw material costs. Smelters are operating well, and the previously affected production capacity is gradually resuming, leading to an increase in the domestic refined copper supply [2]. - On the demand side, the copper price remains strong due to overseas interest - rate cut expectations and raw material cost support. The short - term high - priced copper suppresses the downstream purchasing sentiment, and downstream buyers are becoming more cautious, mostly replenishing stocks based on rigid demand [2]. - In terms of consumption, the year - end sales rush of automobile enterprises and the rush work in the power system provide certain demand resilience for Shanghai copper. The social inventory is still slightly decreasing [2]. - In the options market, the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.23, with a month - on - month increase of 0.0791. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases [2]. - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the two lines are above the zero axis, and the green bars are expanding. The report suggests light - position oscillatory trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 91,090 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,880 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 11,491.50 dollars/ton, a decrease of 144 dollars [2]. - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 80 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 210,572 lots, a decrease of 19,473 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 futures holders in Shanghai copper is - 44,609 lots, a decrease of 10,180 lots; the LME copper inventory is 164,550 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons [2]. - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 88,905 tons, a decrease of 9,025 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 63,175 tons, a decrease of 675 tons [2]. - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 29,531 tons, a decrease of 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 92,215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the price of 1 copper spot in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 92,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan [2]. - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41 dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the CU main contract is 1,125 yuan/ton, an increase of 1,795 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 8.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 14.86 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 245.15 million tons, a decrease of 13.56 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 42.86 dollars/thousand tons, a decrease of 0.11 dollars [2]. - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 82,470 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 730 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 83,170 yuan/metal ton, an increase of 730 yuan [2]. - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 900 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The production of refined copper is 120.40 million tons, a decrease of 6.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 427,000 tons, a decrease of 13,000 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, an increase of 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 62,940 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan [2]. - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 870 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 76,750 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of copper products is 200.40 million tons, a decrease of 22.80 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure construction is 4,824.34 billion yuan, an increase of 446.27 billion yuan [2]. - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 73,562.70 billion yuan, an increase of 5,856.99 billion yuan; the monthly production of integrated circuits is 4,177 million pieces, a decrease of 194,236.10 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 16.02%, an increase of 2.47%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 16.50%, an increase of 0.80% [2]. - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month is 20.58%, a decrease of 0.0182; the call - to - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.23, an increase of 0.0791 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2026, emphasizing the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and promoting high - quality development through multiple measures [2]. - According to the Passenger Car Association, from January to October 2025, China's automobile exports reached 6.46 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 22%. In October, exports were 821,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 40% and a month - on - month increase of 9%. From January to October 2025, new energy vehicle exports were 2.65 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 54%, higher than the 19% growth rate in the same period in 2024 [2]. - The Fed is scheduled to hold an interest - rate meeting on December 9th and 10th. The market generally expects a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut. The market will focus on Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot plot" of the year [2]. - According to the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In November, the total import and export value was 3.9 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.1% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the Comex premium persists, and the inventory levels in Shanghai and London remain relatively low. Coupled with the upcoming Fed rate cut, copper prices may continue to fluctuate in a relatively strong pattern. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging between RMB 91,500/ton and RMB 92,000/ton, while arbitrage is put on hold and short put options are suggested [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On December 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at RMB 92,520/ton and closed at RMB 92,970/ton, up 0.20% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at RMB 92,820/ton and closed at RMB 92,400/ton, down 0.61% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - According to SMM, the spot premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper to the current 2512 contract was between RMB 20/ton - RMB 240/ton, with an average premium of RMB 130/ton, down RMB 40 from the previous trading day. The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was between RMB 92,040 - RMB 92,560/ton. The intraday procurement sentiment declined significantly, and the sales sentiment slightly increased, causing the spot premium of Shanghai copper to fall. It is expected that spot transactions will still be at a premium, but as copper prices continue to rise, the number of downstream orders decreases, and the premium is expected to face pressure [2]. Important Information Summary Macro and Geopolitical Aspects - The Fed's December interest rate meeting is approaching. The market generally believes that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again. The market will closely watch Powell's press - conference Q&A session and the last "dot - plot" of the year. Regarding the rate - cut amplitude and the number of future rate cuts, Hassett, a potential candidate for the new Fed chairman, believes that data should be closely monitored, and actions should be taken prudently [3]. Economic Data - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will not release the October Producer Price Index (PPI). Due to the government shutdown, the collection of October data is delayed. According to its website, the Bureau plans to announce the October data together in the November 2025 PPI press release on January 14, 2026 [3]. Mining End - On December 5, Askari Metals announced a successful fundraising of $1.15 million and appointed a new director to accelerate its mineral exploration projects in Ethiopia and Namibia. The funds will be mainly used for the exploration of two core projects: the Nejo copper - gold project in Ethiopia and the Uis lithium - tin - tantalum - rubidium project in Namibia. On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.526 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0% [4]. Smelting and Imports - On December 8, customs data showed that in November 2025, China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 427,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January - November were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. LME copper inventory increased last week, reaching a six - month high on December 4 and then slightly declining, with the latest inventory at 162,550 tons. SHFE copper inventory continued to decline last week, falling 9.22% to 88,905 tons, a three - month low. International copper inventory decreased by 573 tons to 11,504 tons. New York copper inventory continued to accumulate, reaching a new high at 436,853 tons [5]. Consumption - In the past week, the State Grid's December tender volume decreased by 20% month - on - month. After copper prices exceeded RMB 91,000/ton, cable enterprises only fulfilled previous long - term orders. The new tender price transmission coefficient was only 0.6, and some enterprises replaced copper cables with aluminum cables, with the estimated substitution ratio rising to 8%. In the home appliance sector, the domestic sales production plan of air conditioners was reduced by 6%, and copper tube procurement was based on "production according to sales". The copper material procurement volume of Midea and Gree in December decreased by 12% month - on - month. The demand for copper strips in refrigerators and microwaves increased slightly due to good export orders. In the automotive sector, the copper consumption of new energy vehicles continued to increase, with a per - vehicle copper consumption of 83 kg and an 11 - month production increase of 35% year - on - year, offsetting the decline of traditional vehicles. However, high - voltage wiring harness enterprises, due to copper accounting for more than 60% of costs, have jointly applied to vehicle manufacturers for a price - linkage mechanism, otherwise they will reduce production to ensure profits. Photovoltaic and data centers have become new highlights. Morgan Stanley predicts that the copper demand of data centers in 2026 will be 475,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%, but high copper prices have forced some projects to postpone tenders, slowing the short - term demand pace [5][6]. Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - LME warehouse receipts decreased by 275 tons to 164,550 tons compared with the previous trading day. SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 980 tons to 29,956 tons. On December 8, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 160,300 tons, an increase of 1400 tons compared with the previous week [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, copper prices reached new highs driven by both macro and fundamental factors. The easing of Sino-US trade frictions was positive, and the continuation of the Fed's interest rate cut cycle boosted copper prices. In 2026, the tightness of copper mine supply is expected to intensify, and in the long term, the demand for new energy, power, and AI data center construction will increase steadily. Therefore, the upward momentum of copper prices remains strong. However, due to the suppression of downstream demand by high copper prices, copper prices may show a pattern of rising periodically and then oscillating and correcting [5][82]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In 2025, copper prices rose under the influence of overseas interest rate cuts and copper mine shortages, with strong support from new energy, power, and AI computing power demand. Although tariff disturbances periodically suppressed copper prices, copper prices still reached new highs under the impetus of favorable macro factors and strong supply - demand fundamentals [9]. - **Q1**: Copper prices oscillated upward. Overseas interest rate cuts, tight raw material supply, and positive domestic policy expectations pushed up copper prices. However, factors such as Trump's tariff policy, the Fed's hawkish stance, and the Altonorte smelter incident affected the price trend, resulting in a high - level oscillation pattern with limited gains [11]. - **Q2**: Copper prices first fell sharply and then rebounded. Trump's tariff policy shocked the market, but the tight supply and strong demand of copper fundamentals supported the price rebound. Events such as the Kakula mine shutdown, the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Palestine, and Sino - US economic and trade talks also influenced the price [12]. - **Q3**: Copper prices were generally strong. In July, copper prices first rose and then fell due to factors such as supply tightening expectations and Trump's copper tariff implementation. In August and September, positive factors such as the easing of Sino - US trade frictions, the Fed's dovish remarks, and domestic policy expectations boosted copper prices. The shutdown of the Grasberg mine due to a mudslide also pushed up copper prices [13]. - **Q4**: Copper prices reached new highs. The Sino - US summit and trade consultations brought confidence to the market. The Fed's interest rate cuts and the continuous tight supply of copper mines supported the price increase [14]. 2. Macro Analysis (1) Overseas - **Global economic growth slowdown**: In 2025, due to uncertainties such as overseas anti - globalization tariff policies, the global trade pattern was reshaped, and the economic growth rate was expected to slow down. According to the IMF, the global economic growth rate in 2025 was 2.8%, a 40 - basis - point reduction from the previous forecast [15]. - **US economic situation**: - **Manufacturing and service industries**: The US manufacturing PMI was relatively low, with the November 2025 ISM manufacturing PMI at 48.2, remaining below the boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. The service industry continued to expand, with the October ISM services PMI reaching 52.4, the highest in eight months [17]. - **GDP**: The US Q2 real GDP annualized quarterly - on - quarterly rate was revised up to 3.3%, mainly driven by improved business investment and a significant boost in trade. Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP growth, and consumer spending was also robust [18]. - **Inflation**: US inflation increased slightly and was generally moderate. In September, the CPI increased by 3% year - on - year, and the core inflation rate increased by 0.2% month - on - month. The PCE price index was in line with expectations, which further promoted the Fed's interest rate cut in December [19]. - **Employment**: The US labor market cooled down. The unemployment rate rose from 4% at the beginning of the year to 4.4% in September. The ADP employment number decreased by 32,000 in November, and the Fed's interest rate cut probability continued to increase [25]. (2) Domestic - **Social financing and price levels**: - **Social financing**: The growth rate of China's social financing scale slowed down in the second half of 2025. From January to October, the cumulative social financing scale increment was 30.9 trillion yuan, but the increment in October was the lowest since August 2024. The M2 - M1 gap widened, indicating a decline in the willingness of enterprises and residents to consume and invest [26]. - **Inflation**: The improvement of China's CPI was still moderate. In October, CPI turned positive year - on - year, mainly driven by food, service, and gold prices. PPI increased month - on - month for the first time this year, and the year - on - year decline narrowed [28]. - **Economic growth**: In 2025, China's economic growth faced mild downward pressure due to insufficient domestic demand and overseas tariff policies. The manufacturing PMI was below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, but the service industry was generally expanding. From January to October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.1% year - on - year. The economic growth pressure was more prominent in the fourth quarter, but the full - year 5% growth target could still be achieved [30][31]. - **Policy**: China proposed "strengthening unconventional counter - cyclical regulation" this year. In May, the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. The 14th Five - Year Plan suggestions provided guidance for future economic development. In 2026, as the first year of the 15th Five - Year Plan, policies are expected to be more proactive to ensure a stable economic start [34][35]. 3. Supply - Demand Fundamental Analysis (1) Supply Side - **Copper mines**: - **Overseas mine disruptions**: In 2025, global copper mine accidents frequently occurred, such as the Kakula mine earthquake in Congo, the El Teniente mine collapse in Chile, and the Grasberg mine mudslide in Indonesia. The ICSG lowered the mine supply growth rate from 2.3% to 1.4%. The global copper concentrate supply increment was less than expected, and the copper concentrate TC was at a historical low [36][38]. - **Domestic imports and inventory**: From January to October, China imported 22.684 million tons of copper ore, a year - on - year increase of 7.58%. As of November 28, the copper concentrate port inventory was 674,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.14%, indicating a tight supply [39]. - **Electrolytic copper**: - **Global production**: Some large mining companies lowered their copper production targets due to mine accidents. The ICSG predicted a 150,000 - ton global copper supply shortage in 2026. Global new smelting capacity exceeded copper ore supply, and some overseas smelters stopped production due to various reasons [40][42]. - **Domestic production**: From January to November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11.76% year - on - year. However, since September, production has decreased month - on - month due to raw material shortages and smelter overhauls. The price increase of by - product sulfuric acid alleviated the smelting pressure [43]. - **Recycled copper**: - **Import**: China's recycled copper imports were stable. Although imports from the US decreased due to tariffs, imports from Southeast Asia and other regions increased. The country's policies support the development of the recycled copper industry, and the demand for recycled copper imports is expected to be stable in 2026 [45][47]. - **Downstream industry**: The operating rate of recycled copper rods was at a low level. Factors such as tight supply of recycled copper raw materials, weak downstream orders, and policy uncertainties led to a low operating rate [48]. - **Imports and exports**: - **Imports**: China is a net importer of electrolytic copper. In 2025, the import profit window was mostly closed. From January to October, the cumulative import of electrolytic copper decreased by 6.34% year - on - year [49][51]. - **Exports**: The export window opened in June, and the export volume increased significantly in October. From January to October, the cumulative export of electrolytic copper increased by 29.44% year - on - year [51]. (2) Demand Side - **New energy and power investment**: - **New energy installation**: As of October, the total installed power generation capacity in China increased by 17.3% year - on - year, with significant growth in solar and wind power. The "抢装潮" in the first half of the year affected the new installation volume in the second half, but the annual new installation volume of photovoltaic and wind power still increased steadily. The new installation scale of new energy is expected to reach a new high during the 15th Five - Year Plan period [55][56]. - **Grid investment**: The grid investment scale reached a new high this year, driving copper demand. The investment in the power grid and energy storage is expected to increase during the 15th Five - Year Plan period to support the development of new energy [57]. - **Real estate**: The real estate market was at the bottom - grinding stage. From January to October, real estate development investment, new construction area, and sales area all decreased year - on - year. Although the 15th Five - Year Plan suggestions aim to promote the high - quality development of the real estate market, the market's recovery still depends on subsequent policies [59][60]. - **Automobiles**: - **Domestic market**: From January to October, China's automobile production increased by 11% year - on - year, and new energy vehicle production and sales maintained high growth. The penetration rate of new energy vehicles has been above 50% since March [64][65]. - **Global market**: Global new energy vehicle sales increased steadily. China is the world's largest exporter of new energy vehicles, but exports may be restricted by tariffs in 2026. With policy support, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China are expected to remain high in 2026 [67][68]. - **Home appliances**: The "two - new" policies promoted the stable growth of home appliance production and sales. Since the second quarter of 2025, the domestic home appliance market has seen a trend of strong domestic sales and weak exports. Although the policy effectiveness has declined, the production and sales growth of home appliances is expected to remain stable in 2026 with the continuous strengthening of consumption - boosting policies [69][72]. 4. Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - **Domestic inventory**: Since March 2025, domestic copper inventory has been decreasing. Although there was a slight increase in inventory in the second half of the year due to high copper prices, the inventory decreased again with the price correction. As of December 5, the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper inventory and domestic copper social inventory were at low levels in recent years [73]. - **Overseas inventory**: Overseas copper smelting capacity shrank due to tight copper concentrate supply and negative processing fees. The LME inventory decreased, and the COMEX inventory increased. The global visible inventory decreased, but it increased in the second half of the year due to the opening of the LME - COMEX arbitrage window [73][74]. - **Supply - demand balance**: The global refined copper production continued to grow, but the growth rate slowed down year by year. There were regional shortages and supply - demand mismatches in overseas copper. The supply - demand balance of domestic refined copper is expected to show that consumption growth is higher than production capacity release [76]. 5. 2026 Outlook - **Macro factors**: The easing of Sino - US trade frictions is positive, and the Fed's interest rate cut cycle continues, which is beneficial to copper prices. However, attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm in 2026 and the potential impact of the US's additional tariffs on refined copper [78]. - **Supply**: The supply of copper mines is expected to be tighter in 2026. The ICSG predicts a 150,000 - ton supply shortage. The copper concentrate TC is at a historical low, and the long - term contract copper supply premium of Codelco has increased significantly. Under the influence of raw material shortages and anti - involution measures, refined copper production may shrink [79][80]. - **Demand**: The demand for copper is expected to grow steadily. The 15th Five - Year Plan focuses on new energy, power, and AI data center construction, which will drive copper demand. Policies to promote consumption will also boost the production and sales of new energy vehicles and home appliances [81]. - **Price trend**: Copper prices are expected to have strong upward momentum, but may show a pattern of rising periodically and then oscillating and correcting due to the suppression of downstream demand by high prices [82].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 市场风险偏好向好，有色板块明显走高 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-12-08 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | 现 值 | 日涨跌幅 | 周涨跌幅 | 年涨跌幅 | 品 ...

国内证券市场主要指数表现分化，其中创业板指涨幅最大为1.86%。申万一级行业中，有色金属涨幅最 大为5.35%。 本周结构性行情延续，能源设备、贵金属等板块表现突出。国内经济景气总体平稳，11 月制造业 PMI 小幅回升至 49.2%，产需两端改善、小微企业景气显著回升，高技术制造业持续扩张。政策端，国务院 聚焦新型城镇化与城乡融合，释放内需潜力；证监会明确资本市场改革方向，着力提升制度包容性、吸 引长期资金。国际方面，美国 ADP 就业数据不及预期，市场对美联储 12 月降息预期升温。展望未来， 国内新型城镇化推进与资本市场改革深化将形成合力，为经济和市场提供支撑，高技术制造、新型城镇 相关领域有望受益。美联储降息预期落地或改善全球流动性环境，但需关注内外需修复节奏及国际市场 波动风险。 投资建议 1）科技：发展新质生产力是当前政策对于国内经济方向的重要指引，流动性宽松背景下，科创与创新 类公司有望超额收益。建议关注：人工智能、半导体芯片、机器人、低空经济、深海科技等。2）非银 金融：券商受益于慢牛格局，保险长期资产端将受益于资本回报见底回升。3）有色金属：（1）铜：供 需格局持续偏紧，铜价有望延续上行趋势 ...

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 分析师：李向梅 执业登记编号：A0190523050003 11月制造业PMI 49.2%，较上月小幅回升 1. 11月30日，国家统计局发布数据：11月份，制造业采购经理指数为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分 点；非制造业商务活动指数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点；综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上 月下降0.3个百分点，我国经济景气水平总体平稳。 2. 12月3日，国务院以"深入推进以人为本的新型城镇化，着力构建城乡融合发展新格局"为主题，进 行第十七次专题学习。国务院总理李强在主持学习时强调，要认真学习贯彻习近平总书记和党中 央关于深入实施新型城镇化战略的决策部署，坚持以人为本提高城镇化质量水平，充分释放城乡 融合发展蕴藏的巨大内需潜力，为经济社会发展提供强劲动力。 3. 12月5日，证监会主席吴清发表署名文章《提高资本市场制度的包容性适应性（学习贯彻党的二十 届四中全会精神）》指出，经过30多年的改革发展，我国资本市场从无到有、从小到大，当前正 处在向高质量发展快速转变的关键阶段。提高资本市场制度包容性、适应性，是站 ...

据美东时间4日周四的媒体报道,瑞士大宗商品交易商Mercuria已发出通知，计划从伦敦金属交易所 （LME）的亚洲仓库提取超过4万吨铜，按近期价格计算价值约4.6亿美元。 一些知情人士向该媒体透露，Mercuria在12月2日周二取消或标记了超过4万吨存在韩国和中国台湾LME 仓库中的铜。此举将提高现货铜合约相对于三个月期铜期货价格的溢价，反映出交易商对实物铜日益增 长的需求。Mercuria拒绝对此置评。 巧的是，最近有分析指出，本周三，LME亚洲区域仓库的注销仓单达到50725吨，创2013年以来新高。 传出上述消息前一天，本周三，LME期铜交易价已经大反弹。当天伦铜收涨342美元，涨近3.08%，收 报1.1488万美元/吨，盘中一度触及1.154万美元的历史高点，史上首次盘中涨破1.15万美元。这是该期 铜合约最近四个交易日内第三日创收盘最高纪录。 一则商品交易巨头的消息在给最近大涨的铜价火上浇油。若消息属实，将加剧市场对全球铜供应短缺的 担忧，可能进一步推动铜价创下历史新高。 这一决定在实物市场产生了巨大影响。随着美国期货价格飙升,交易商再次加速向美国港口运输铜。生 产商也宣布,明年将向欧洲和亚洲客 ...

Core Insights - Domestic and international copper prices have reached new highs, driven by expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and regional tightness in global copper inventories [2][4][6] - The anticipated demand for copper in the AI era is expected to require significant copper ore imports, leading to potential regional shortages [2][6] Price Movements - On December 3, LME copper futures peaked at $11,540 per ton, closing at $11,448.5, a 2.72% increase [4] - On December 4, domestic copper futures reached historical highs of 90,980 CNY per ton and 82,080 CNY per ton for international contracts, with increases of 2.26% and 2.96% respectively [4][5] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Analysts suggest that the copper price increase may continue, but any negative factors or unmet demand expectations could lead to significant price corrections [3][11] - The current imbalance in global copper inventory distribution is exacerbated by strong demand for copper in the U.S. and concerns over potential tariffs [5][12] Industry Impact - The impact of rising copper prices varies across the supply chain; overseas mines benefit the most, while smelting companies with high external ore procurement face greater challenges [8][9] - Copper processing companies are experiencing cost pressures due to rising procurement costs and low processing fees, which may lead to reduced operating rates [9][10] Future Outlook - The copper market is expected to remain volatile, with potential for high price fluctuations due to macroeconomic conditions and supply-demand fundamentals [11][12] - Key factors to monitor include the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, recovery of copper supply in response to high prices, and the realization of copper consumption growth driven by AI and energy storage [12]

2025.12. 04 本文字数：3001，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 黄思瑜 国内外铜价创下新高。继12月3日LME（伦敦金属交易所）铜期货价格创出历史新高的11540美元/ 吨后，4日，沪铜和国际铜期货主力合约分别创下历史新高的91450元/吨、82430元/吨。 南华期货研究院高级总监傅小燕对第一财经称，这次铜价上涨主要是受到美联储降息预期以及全球铜 库存区域性紧张带来的双重溢价影响。核心关注点在于预期AI时代到来，对于铜的大量消耗需要足够 的铜矿进口，而全球铜库存转移背后反映出的全球资源争夺，势必造成区域性短缺风险。 对铜产业链企业的影响，华闻期货总经理助理兼研究所所长程小勇认为，产业链上中下游受到的影响 存在差异，海外矿山享受铜价上涨带来的绝大多数利润；冶炼环节，拥有铜矿资源的铜冶炼企业受影 响较小，铜矿外采占比较高的铜企业影响较大；铜加工企业成本攀升且加工费低位波动；下游用铜企 业面临成本压力。 关于后市行情预判，多位受访者认为，铜价上涨可能还没结束，一旦出现利空因素或者需求预期没有 如期兑现，铜价容易出现大幅调整。国信期货首席分析师顾冯达预计，铜价偏强运行，沪铜触及新高 后，或在90 ...

知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 #NAME | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 | 产业链期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月4日 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及价差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM A00铝 | 21800 | 21710 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | SMM A00铝升贴水 | -50 | - 50 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 | 21790 | 21700 | 90.0 | 0.41% | 元/吨 | | 长江 铝A00 升贴水 | -60 | -60 | 0.0 | / | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山东)-平均价 | 2760 | 2760 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(河南)-平均价 | 2850 | 2850 | 0.0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 氧化铝(山西)-平均价 | ...