1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The dollar index has declined, and the non - ferrous metals sector has strengthened. With the increase in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations, copper prices are expected to be strong; zinc prices are expected to fluctuate, and it is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities; nickel prices are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term and face long - term supply surplus pressure; stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [9][81][183][184] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The closing prices of various non - ferrous metals are monitored, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. Different metals show different daily, weekly, and annual price changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.8, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a weekly increase of 0.13%, and an annual decrease of 9.80%; the price of industrial silicon is 8390 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 2.10%, a weekly decline of 4.06%, and an annual decline of 23.62% [5][6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. Trump's actions and Fed officials' dovish remarks increase the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the upcoming US non - farm data may further boost this expectation [9] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The spot processing fee of copper ore remains low, and the port inventory has increased [9] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed, and the profits of those using long - term contracts have increased. The electrolytic copper output in September may decline [9] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The copper rod开工率 has declined slightly, but it is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [9] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The copper inventory shows an internal decrease and external increase trend, and the global visible inventory is relatively stable [9] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Bullish on copper prices. In the short term, it is expected to be strong. The trading strategy includes unilateral long - term and internal - external positive arbitrage [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Bullish. The US GDP has been revised upwards, and there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The overall macro sentiment has improved, but the Fed's interest rate cut rhythm is uncertain [81] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The domestic processing fee is stable, and the imported processing fee index has increased slightly. The port inventory has increased, but the refinery's purchasing enthusiasm is not high [81] - **Smelting End**: Bearish. The output in August is expected to be high, and the output in September may decline slightly due to some refinery overhauls [81] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The terminal demand is in the off - season but has resilience. The export of galvanized sheets may decline [81] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The social inventory has continued to increase, and the internal and external inventory differentiation has deepened [81] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies**: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to be cautious about short - selling and focus on low - buying opportunities. Unilateral long - term and wait - and - see for arbitrage [81] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Logics** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly bullish. The US core PCE is slightly higher than the previous value, and the Fed's interest rate cut expectation has increased, which boosts the non - ferrous metals sector [183][184] - **Raw Material End**: Neutral. The Indonesian nickel ore premium is stable, and the domestic port inventory has increased. The nickel iron price has rebounded, and the MHP coefficient has increased [183][184] - **Smelting End**: Slightly bullish. The pure nickel output is high, and the stainless steel production is expected to increase [183][184] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The stainless steel social inventory has decreased slightly, and the demand in the new energy sector is high [183][184] - **Inventory**: Neutral. The domestic social inventory has decreased slightly [183][184] - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Nickel**: Bullish in the short term, with long - term supply surplus pressure. Unilateral range - bound operation and wait - and - see for arbitrage [183] - **Stainless Steel**: Expected to fluctuate widely. Unilateral wait - and - see or short - selling at high prices and no arbitrage [184]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper fundamentals are improving, with downstream demand rising and raw material supply shortages affecting refined copper production. The macro - economy shows resilience, and the good US economic data and demand resilience boost market risk sentiment. The price is expected to rise, with a strength analysis of being relatively strong and a price range of 79,000 - 81,000 yuan/ton [3]. - In trading strategies, with the marginal improvement of fundamentals and a slight recovery in macro - sentiment, hold long positions unilaterally. For spread trading, the low domestic inventory is conducive to positive carry arbitrage. Given the low copper volatility and increasing macro - disturbance risks in the future, pay attention to opportunities to go long on volatility [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Volatility**: COMEX copper volatility dropped significantly, while the volatility of SHFE copper, INE copper, and LME copper increased. COMEX copper price volatility is around 15%, a significant drop from before [14]. - **Term Spread**: The term structure of SHFE copper weakened, and the LME copper spot discount was large. The SHFE copper 09 - 10 spread decreased from a premium of 40 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 30 yuan/ton on August 29. The LME0 - 3 discount on August 29 was 80.26 US dollars/ton, slightly wider than the previous week. The COMEX copper C - structure was stable [16][17]. - **Position**: COMEX copper positions decreased, SHFE copper and INE copper positions increased, and LME copper positions remained flat. SHFE copper positions increased by 24,600 lots to 486,200 lots [19]. - **Fund and Industry Positions**: CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased. LME commercial short net positions decreased from 44,700 lots to 43,700 lots, and CFTC non - commercial long net positions increased from 26,032 lots on August 19 to 26,230 lots on August 26 [25]. - **Spot Premium**: The domestic copper spot premium strengthened, and the bonded - zone copper premium recovered. The domestic copper spot premium widened from a premium of 150 yuan/ton on August 22 to a premium of 250 yuan/ton on August 29. The Yangshan Port copper premium recovered from 51 US dollars/ton on August 22 to 55 US dollars/ton on August 29 [29][31]. - **Inventory**: Global total inventory decreased, with domestic social inventory and bonded - zone inventory both decreasing. Global copper total inventory decreased from 605,600 tons on August 21 to 601,300 tons on August 28. Domestic social inventory decreased from 131,700 tons on August 21 to 127,100 tons on August 28, and bonded - zone inventory decreased from 79,300 tons to 75,100 tons [32][35]. - **Position - to - Inventory Ratio**: The LME copper position - to - inventory ratio declined, weakening the logic of spot shortages overseas. The SHFE copper 09 contract position - to - inventory ratio is at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [36]. 3.2 Supply End - **Copper Concentrate**: Imports increased year - on - year, but processing fees weakened marginally. In July 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5601 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. The port inventory increased from 473,000 tons on August 22 to 550,000 tons on August 29. The spot TC on August 29 was - 41.48 US dollars/ton, with a smelting loss of 3,196 yuan/ton, basically unchanged from the previous week [39]. - **Recycled Copper**: Imports decreased year - on - year, and domestic production increased slightly. In July, recycled copper imports were 190,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%, and domestic recycled copper production was 99,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.81%. The scrap - refined copper spread narrowed, and the import loss of recycled copper widened [41][46]. - **Blister Copper**: Imports increased, and processing fees were at a low level. In July, blister copper imports were 84,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.08%. The domestic processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, and the import processing fee was 95 US dollars/ton [51]. - **Refined Copper**: Production increased more than expected, imports increased, and the profit from copper spot imports expanded. In July, domestic refined copper production was 1.1743 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. In July, imports were 296,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.56%. The profit from spot imports increased from 65.62 yuan/ton on August 22 to 190.84 yuan/ton on August 29 [56]. 3.3 Demand End - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: In July, the capacity utilization rate of copper product enterprises weakened month - on - month. The copper tube capacity utilization rate in July was at a low level compared to the same period in history, and the copper plate, strip, and foil capacity utilization rate was at a neutral - low level. The wire and cable capacity utilization rate declined in the week of August 28 [59]. - **Profit**: Copper rod processing fees were at a neutral level compared to the same period in history, and copper tube processing fees were at a low level. As of August 29, the processing fee for copper rods in the power industry in East China was 725 yuan/ton, higher than 630 yuan/ton on August 22. The 10 - day moving average of the processing fee for R410A special copper tubes on August 29 was 5,073 yuan/ton, higher than 5,071 yuan/ton on August 22 [64]. - **Raw Material Inventory**: The raw material inventory of wire and cable enterprises remained at a low level. In July, the raw material inventory of copper rod enterprises was at a high level compared to the same period in history, and the raw material inventory of copper tubes was at a low level [65]. - **Finished Product Inventory**: The finished product inventory of copper rods decreased, and the finished product inventory of wire and cable increased. In July, the finished product inventory of copper rods was at a neutral - high level compared to the same period in history, and the finished product inventory of copper tubes was at a neutral - low level [68]. 3.4 Consumption End - **Apparent Consumption**: Apparent consumption was good, and power grid investment was an important support. From January to July, the cumulative actual consumption was 9.195 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.71%, and the apparent consumption was 9.2584 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.02%. The power grid investment from January to July was 331.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 12.5% [73]. - **Air - Conditioner and New - Energy Vehicle Production**: In July, domestic air - conditioner production was 16.115 million units, a year - on - year slight decrease of 0.01%. In July, domestic new - energy vehicle production was 1.243 million units, a year - on - year increase of 26.32% [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper futures market is expected to be supported by converging supply and rising demand. The fundamentals suggest a slowdown in supply and a gradual recovery in demand, with a positive industry outlook [6]. - The cost - support logic for copper prices remains strong due to negative TC fees and rising raw material prices. Domestic refined copper production may decline slightly, while downstream demand is expected to recover due to macro - policy support and the approaching traditional consumption season [6]. - The overall inventory will remain at a medium - low level, and the inventory accumulated during the off - season will gradually be depleted as consumption picks up [6]. - The recommended strategy is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, while controlling the trading rhythm and risk [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Highlights - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract rebounded slightly on the weekly line, with a weekly increase of +0.91% and an amplitude of 1.5%. The closing price of the main contract was 79,410 yuan/ton [6]. - **International and Domestic Policies**: The US included copper in the 2025 critical minerals list. In China, policies are being improved to expand domestic demand and support enterprise innovation and employment [6]. - **Fundamentals**: TC fees are negative, and raw material prices are rising, providing cost support for copper prices. Domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and refined copper production may decline. Export demand may fall due to US tariffs, while domestic demand is expected to recover [6]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market - **Contract and Spot Prices**: As of August 29, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of - 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton from last week. The main contract price was 79,410 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan/ton from last week, and the position was 173,826 lots, an increase of 52,924 lots. The 1 electrolytic copper spot average price was 79,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 195 yuan/ton from last week [11][15]. - **Premium and Position**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 60 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 12,236 lots, a decrease of 10,323 lots from last week [22]. - **Implied Volatility**: As of August 29, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper at - the - money option contract fell to around the 25th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8325, a decrease of 0.0184 from last week [27]. 3.3. Industry Situation 3.3.1. Upstream - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: The copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 69,660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week. The southern rough copper processing fee was 700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from last week [30]. - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5601 million tons, an increase of 210,500 tons from June, a growth rate of 8.96%, and a year - on - year increase of 18.41%. The refined - scrap copper price difference (tax - included) was 1,415.68 yuan/ton, an increase of 378.84 yuan/ton from last week [35]. - **Global Production and Inventory**: As of June 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,916 thousand tons, a decrease of 81 thousand tons from May, a decline of 4.06%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79%, a decrease of 0.9% from May. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous period [40]. 3.3.2. Supply - side of the Industry - **Refined Copper Production**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.27 million tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from June, a decline of 2.46%, and a year - on - year increase of 15.14%. As of May 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,395 thousand tons, an increase of 40 thousand tons from April, a growth rate of 1.7%. The capacity utilization rate was 80.1%, a decrease of 1.8% from April [45]. - **Refined Copper Imports**: As of July 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 335,969.236 tons, a decrease of 1,073.33 tons from June, a decline of 0.32%, and a year - on - year increase of 12.05%. The import profit and loss amount was 413.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 333.66 yuan/ton from last week [50][51]. - **Social Inventory**: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory increased by 1,975 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,726 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,736 tons from last week. The total social inventory was 127,900 tons, an increase of 7,900 tons from last week [54]. 3.3.3. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of July 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.1694 million tons, a decrease of 45,100 tons from June, a decline of 2.04%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 480,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from June, a growth rate of 4.35%, and a year - on - year increase of 9.09% [58]. - **Application Fields**: - **Power Grid and Appliances**: As of July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 3.4% and 12.5% respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 2.4%, 1.5%, 5%, 2.9%, and - 6.5% year - on - year respectively [64]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of July 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month increase of 14.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 294.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.4% and a month - on - month increase of 23.02% [71]. 3.3.4. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: As of June 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 36 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 46,500 tons [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The copper market presents a state of "weak reality + stable expectation." The weak reality lies in the expected decline in demand in the second half of the year, while the stable expectation is that the improvement of interest - rate cut expectations and the intensification of domestic stimulus policies will boost the price. In the absence of a clear recession expectation in the US, copper prices will at least remain volatile, and entering a new upward cycle requires the resonance of the commodity and financial attributes of copper. The reference range for the main contract is 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: The market is in an overall supply - surplus pattern. Although cost support and some factory overhauls exist, the short - term weakness is hard to change. The reference range for the main contract is 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. Mid - term, one can consider short - selling on rallies [3]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In the short term, the market sentiment is cautiously optimistic. However, supply pressure remains, and cost support is weakening. The short - term is expected to oscillate in the range of 20,400 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If demand does not improve and capital sentiment cools, the price may fall after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals are showing marginal improvement. The supply of scrap aluminum is tightening, and costs are under pressure. Demand in the communication die - casting sector is picking up, while that in the automotive sector is still weak. Spot prices are expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to narrow. The reference range for the main contract is 20,000 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply is loose, and the demand is weak, which is not sufficient to boost the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the depletion of overseas inventories provides price support. The short - term may still be dominated by oscillations. The reference range for the main contract is 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton [6]. Tin - Affected by national policies, the market has positive expectations for domestic AI demand, which boosts the upward movement of tin prices. If the supply of tin ore from Myanmar recovers smoothly, short - selling on rallies is the main strategy; if the recovery is less than expected, tin prices are expected to remain high and volatile [8]. Nickel - The macro - sentiment is stabilizing, and costs provide certain support. The supply - demand fundamentals have not changed significantly. The short - term is expected to be adjusted within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - The cost support remains, but the market sentiment is still cautious due to weak spot demand. The short - term is expected to oscillate within a range, and the reference range for the main contract is 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - The market sentiment is weak, and the fundamentals are in a tight balance. Supply contraction expectations are gradually being realized, and demand is showing a positive trend. The short - term price has limited downward space, and upward breakthroughs require new drivers. The main contract price is expected to be in the range of 70,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [16]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped by 0.45% to 79,190 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 35 yuan/ton to 205 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 168.48 yuan/ton to 337 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The electrolytic copper import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Basis - SMM A00 aluminum price dropped by 0.53% to 20,730 yuan/ton, and its premium decreased by 20 yuan/ton. Alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. Monthly Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Basis - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in most regions remained unchanged, while the price in the southwest region dropped by 0.48% to 20,700 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference in various regions decreased [4]. Monthly Data - In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc Price and Basis - SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped by 0.63% to 22,130 yuan/ton, and its premium increased by 15 yuan/ton. The import loss decreased by 145.76 yuan/ton to 1,664 yuan/ton [6]. Monthly Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The refined zinc import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [6]. Tin Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price dropped by 0.07% to 271,800 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 premium dropped by 4.62% to 165 dollars/ton. The import loss increased by 7.11% to 19,581 yuan/ton [8]. Monthly Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [8]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped by 1.14% to 121,750 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 dropped by 4 dollars/ton to - 189 dollars/ton. The import profit and loss increased by 490 yuan/ton to - 1,430 yuan/ton [10]. Monthly Data - The Chinese refined nickel production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons, while the refined nickel import volume increased by 116.90% to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The prices of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan remained unchanged. The prices of most raw materials remained stable, while the price of 304 waste stainless steel in Wenzhou dropped by 0.52% to 9,650 yuan/ton [12]. Monthly Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The stainless steel import volume decreased by 33.30% to 7.30 million tons, and the export volume increased by 6.74% to 41.63 million tons [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 1.96% to 80,000 yuan/ton, and the industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped by 2.02% to 77,700 yuan/ton [16]. Monthly Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.40% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference remains high despite the poor domestic economic and financial data. In August, there may be a small accumulation of inventory under the full - supply pattern, but the market may focus more on the tight - balance pattern after the off - season [1]. - For aluminum, supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August. Attention should be paid to demand in the short - term and potential arbitrage opportunities in the low - inventory situation [2]. - Zinc prices fluctuate widely. Supply increases, demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly. Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended, while a short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. - For nickel, supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable. Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel has a weak fundamental situation. Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly. Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. - Lead prices fluctuate. Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level, and prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. - Tin prices fluctuate widely. Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth. A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. - The production of industrial silicon resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. In the short - term, the supply - demand situation may remain tight, while in the medium - to - long - term, prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom [14]. - Carbonate lithium prices fluctuate on the futures market due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances. The price has large upward and downward elasticities [16]. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot price of Shanghai copper increased by 50, the warehouse receipt decreased by 55, and the inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 1850 [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The market risk preference continues to rise. The downstream orders are supported at around 7.8. The copper rod production rate shows resilience at the end of the off - season, and the substitution effect between refined and scrap copper is obvious. The scrap copper market is disturbed by policies, and there may be a small inventory accumulation in August [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price decreased by 110, the domestic alumina price decreased by 7, and the import alumina price decreased by 50. The inventory remained unchanged [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases slightly, demand is in the seasonal off - season in August with a possible slight improvement in the middle and late stages. The export of aluminum products improves, but photovoltaic demand and overseas demand decline. There is an expected small inventory accumulation in August [2]. Zinc - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai zinc ingot price decreased by 140, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 2025 [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply increases as the smelting increment is further realized in August and the zinc ore import in July reaches a three - year high. Demand is seasonally weak but has some resilience. Domestic social inventory rises, and overseas LME inventory decreases rapidly [5]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rebound, and a wait - and - see approach is recommended. A short - position configuration is suggested in the medium - to - long - term. Positive arbitrage opportunities can be considered [5]. Nickel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 1450, and the inventory of LME increased by 456 [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply remains at a high level, demand is weak, and inventory remains stable [6]. - **Strategy**: Opportunities for narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the prices of 304 cold - rolled coils and other products remained mostly unchanged, and the inventory in Xifu decreased slightly [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Some steel mills cut production passively, demand is mainly for rigid needs, costs remain stable, and inventory decreases slightly [6]. - **Strategy**: Attention should be paid to policy trends [6]. Lead - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot premium increased by 10, the domestic social inventory remained unchanged, and the overseas LME inventory decreased by 4975 [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply has issues such as low scrap battery supply and low profit - driven low production. Demand shows a "not - prosperous peak season" situation. Inventory is expected to remain at a high level [8]. - **Strategy**: Lead prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation next week [8]. Tin - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the spot import profit decreased by 1094.76, and the inventory of LME decreased by 30 [11]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply is affected by factors such as low processing fees and potential production resumptions. Demand has a peak - season expectation in the terminal electronics sector but a strong expectation of a decline in photovoltaic growth [11]. - **Strategy**: A wait - and - see approach is recommended in the short - term, and long - position holding near the cost line is suggested in the medium - to - long - term [11]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the 421 Yunnan basis decreased by 45, and the warehouse receipt decreased by 53 [14]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production resumes at a slow pace. The current supply - demand balance shows a small inventory reduction. The supply - demand situation may remain tight in the short - term, while prices are expected to oscillate at the cycle bottom in the medium - to - long - term [14]. Carbonate Lithium - **Price and Inventory Changes**: From August 22 to 28, the SMM electric carbonate price decreased by 1600, and the warehouse receipt increased by 1480 [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: The futures market fluctuates due to supply - side disturbances. Spot trading is active during the peak season. The core contradiction lies in the long - term over - supply situation and short - term supply - side compliance disturbances [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main contract of Shanghai copper shows a volatile trend, with a decrease in open interest, a premium in the spot market, and a weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC spot index has rebounded but remains in the negative range, and the firmness of copper mines still supports copper prices. [2] - On the supply side, the copper concentrate at ports continues to decline, and the demand of domestic smelters has increased. It is expected that the domestic refined copper supply may increase slightly. [2] - On the demand side, due to the continued impact of the off - season, downstream consumption remains weak. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream may have some pre - stocking demand, so the overall demand is expected to gradually improve. [2] - Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable but improving demand, and industry inventories remain in the medium - low range. [2] - In the options market, the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.27, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.0012. The market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. [2] - Technically, on the 60 - minute MACD chart, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the green bars are expanding. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 79,190 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME 3 - month copper price is 9,789.50 dollars/ton, down 47.50 dollars. [2] - The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 174,997 lots, down 491 lots. [2] - The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 12,244 lots, down 1,967 lots; the LME copper inventory is 155,000 tons, down 975 tons. [2] - The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 81,698 tons (weekly), down 4,663 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 13,250 tons, up 1,500 tons. [2] - The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 21,287 tons, down 2,856 tons. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price is 79,545 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price is 79,585 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. [2] - The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 60 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 55 dollars/ton, unchanged. [2] - The basis of the CU main contract is 355 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 84.82 dollars/ton, down 6.44 dollars. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 256.01 million tons (monthly), up 21.05 million tons; the rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 41.15 dollars/kiloton (weekly), down 3.47 dollars. [2] - The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 69,880 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 70,580 yuan/metal ton, down 110 yuan. [2] - The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 800 yuan/ton (weekly), down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 750 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The output of refined copper is 127 million tons (monthly), down 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons (weekly), up 0.43 million tons; the price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 55,690 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. [2] - The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 68,350 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 216.94 million tons (monthly), down 4.51 million tons; the cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 331.5 billion yuan (monthly), up 40.434 billion yuan. [2] - The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 5,357.977 billion yuan (monthly), up 692.221 billion yuan; the monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces. [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 8.10%, down 0.01%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 9.29%, down 0.00%. [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 9.23%, down 0.0127%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is down 0.0012. [2] 3.7 Industry News - The 13th plenary session of the 14th Standing Committee of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference was held. It is necessary to place the development of new - quality productivity according to local conditions in a more prominent strategic position, promote the in - depth integration of the digital economy and the real economy, and accelerate the process of industrial intelligent development. [2] - Premier Li Qiang emphasized during the 15th special study of the State Council that it is necessary to actively expand the import of high - quality services, promote the high - quality development of the service industry through high - level opening - up, and promote the institutional opening of service trade. [2] - US President Trump said in a cabinet meeting that he may appoint Stephen Milan to serve on the Federal Reserve Board for a long - term. Trump said that he will soon have a majority on the Federal Reserve. [2] - Trump said that he may visit China this year or as soon as possible. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded that head - of - state diplomacy plays an irreplaceable strategic leading role in Sino - US relations, and the two heads of state maintain close exchanges and communication. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated and declined, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The copper ore market remains firm, supporting copper prices. Domestic refined copper supply is expected to increase slightly, while downstream demand is currently weak but is expected to improve as the peak season approaches. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may show a slight increase in supply, stable current demand with positive expectations, and industry inventories remaining in the medium - low range. The options market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line above the 0 - axis with a shrinking red bar. It is recommended to conduct short - term long trades on dips with light positions and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 79,190 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 9,802.50 dollars/ton, up 6 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract was 10 yuan/ton, unchanged. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper was 175,488 lots, up 64,228 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper was - 1,913 lots, up 1,702 lots. LME copper inventory was 156,350 tons, up 375 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper was 81,698 tons, down 4,663 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warrant of cathode copper was 22,917 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 79,585 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - Ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 79,685 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 57 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 52.50 dollars/ton, up 2.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 395 yuan/ton, up 690 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was - 78.38 dollars/ton, up 2.63 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 256.01 million tons, up 21.05 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 41.15 dollars/thousand tons, down 3.47 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 69,990 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan; the price of copper concentrates in Yunnan was 70,690 yuan/metal ton, up 290 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south was 800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper was 127 million tons, down 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 480,000 tons, up 20,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai was 55,590 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai was 68,200 yuan/ton, up 350 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 640 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products was 216.94 million tons, down 4.51 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 331.5 billion yuan, up 40.434 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 53,579.77 billion yuan, up 692.221 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,689,220,700 pieces, up 183,435,300 pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 8.11%, up 0.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper was 9.29%, down 0.21%. The implied volatility of the at - the - money option in the current month was 10.5%, down 0.0039. The call - to - put ratio of at - the - money option positions was 1.27, up 0.0973 [2] 3.7 Industry News - The National Development and Reform Commission held a symposium to collect opinions on expanding domestic demand and stabilizing employment for the "15th Five - Year Plan". Moody's said that the downside risks of the US economy are intensifying, with about one - third of US states in or likely to enter a recession, one - third stagnant, and one - third still expanding, and the probability of the US economy entering a recession in the next 12 months is 49%. The General Administration of Customs said that since the "14th Five - Year Plan", China has added and opened 40 ports, with a total of 311 ports, and the customs has an average annual supervision of 52 billion tons of import and export goods worth 41.5 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Housing and Urban - Rural Development Commission and other 6 departments issued a notice to optimize and adjust real estate policies, including reducing purchase restrictions, adjusting housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment restricts the upside of copper prices, but the dovish Fed statement on August 22 boosted market expectations of a September rate cut, thus lifting copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate cut幅度 is uncertain. The key lies in whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock. - Fundamentally, the supply-demand contradiction of copper remains the main line, with a tight supply situation. The copper price is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is facing a game between short-term supply disruptions and long-term overcapacity. The price of the main contract is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week, and short positions can be considered at high prices. - The aluminum market is under pressure from the supply-demand structure, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are showing marginal improvement, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the cost. The demand for communication die-casting has increased, while the automotive sector is still weak. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is weak, which limits the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the decline in overseas inventories provides support for prices. The short-term zinc price is expected to be volatile and stronger due to improved rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The Fed's dovish signal has pushed up tin prices. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short-selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [12]. Nickel - The macro sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support. The supply is expected to be loose, but the pace is slow. The short-term nickel price is expected to be range-adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel provides support, but the weak spot demand restricts the market. The short-term price is expected to be range-bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being realized, and the demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend. The short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely around 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 79,395 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%. - The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.30 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.34% to 20,780 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.40%. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.17% to 47.9 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 0.49% to 20,550 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 0.28% to 3.51 million tons [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.50% to 22,310 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.03%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.39% to 269,700 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 52 dollars/ton to 50 dollars/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.71%. - The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7,491 tons [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.58% to 121,250 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was -1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 677 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel product production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons. - The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2.93% to 26,962 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.77% to 13,100 yuan/ton. - The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.61% to 50.45 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.67% to 82,500 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.41%. - The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market is still gambling on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. If the rate cut exceeds expectations, copper prices will fluctuate significantly. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have risen sharply, with the expected probability of a rate cut exceeding 90%. The weakening of the US dollar boosts the prices of non - ferrous metals, and copper prices rebounded on Monday. Fundamentally, both the international and domestic copper markets show a tight supply pattern, and the low - level inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange still supports copper prices. Although the downstream is in a weak state during the off - season, with the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaching, the market generally has confidence in the improvement of demand. Copper prices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, significantly higher than the expected 49.7 and the previous value of 49.8. The manufacturing output and backlog of orders sub - items rose to a nearly two - year high, and the new orders and employment indicators were strong. The factory finished - product inventory indicator rose to the highest level since records began in 2007. The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending August 16 was 235,000, with an expected 225,000 and a previous value of 224,000. The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, with an expected 49.5 and a previous value of 49.8 [10] 3.2 Shanghai Copper Price Trend - Last week, Shanghai copper was generally in a downward - trending oscillation. The highest price of the week was 79,290 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 78,480 yuan/ton, the weekly amplitude was 1.02%, and the interval decline was 0.47% [14] 3.3 Shanghai Copper Spot Market - As of August 22, the average premium of cathode copper in East China was 165 yuan/ton, and the average premium in South China was 60 yuan/ton. The increase in the number of imported copper squeezed the domestic market. With limited downstream demand and no obvious boost for the time being, the copper premium was under pressure [20] 3.4 LME Copper Spread Structure - As of August 22, the weekly change of LME copper was - 0.05%, closing at $9,725/ton. The spot discount of LME copper strengthened slightly, and the LME copper inventory continued to accumulate. With the rising expectations of the Fed's interest - rate cut, LME copper still maintained a discount [25] 3.5 Copper Concentrate Supply - According to customs data, in July 2025, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. From January to July 2025, China imported 17.314 million tons of copper concentrate and its ores, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. As of August 22, 2025, the inventory of imported copper concentrate at 16 Chinese ports was 473,000 tons, an increase of 51,000 tons from the previous week. Due to the collapse of the El Teniente mine, Codelco in Chile is expected to reduce its copper production to 316,000 tons in 2025 [31] 3.6 Smelter Fees - As of August 22, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 41.32 dollars/dry ton, and the RC fee was - 4.14 cents/pound. After stabilizing for several weeks, the TC/RC fees weakened again this period. The mid - year negotiation result of the long - term contract set the TC/RC at 0.0 dollars/dry ton and 0.0 cents/pound. Long - term contracts were profitable, while spot contracts were still at a loss. The current sulfuric acid price was at a historically high level, supporting smelter profits. The factory's seasonal maintenance plan will still lead to a reduction in production in September and October [35] 3.7 Refined Copper Supply - In July, the output of electrolytic copper in China was 1.1743 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.21%. From January to July, the cumulative output was 7.7673 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.82%. The previously shut - down smelters gradually resumed production. Currently, only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August, and a newly put - into - operation smelter in East China has started production, so the output is expected to fluctuate little. In the later part of the third quarter, production may be reduced or halted due to the tight mineral resources and the swelling of sulfuric acid storage. In July, the import volume of refined copper was 336,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.05% and a month - on - month decrease of 110 tons; the export volume was 118,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 69.12% and a month - on - month increase of 39,400 tons [39] 3.8 Scrap Copper Supply - In July 2025, the import of scrap copper was 190,100 tons, with a relatively high year - on - year import volume, higher than market expectations. However, due to tariffs, the import of scrap copper from the US decreased significantly, and the scrap copper resources in other regions were also in a tight pattern. The narrowing of the price difference between refined and scrap copper was beneficial to the consumption of refined copper, and the operating rate of scrap - copper rod production decreased [44] 3.9 Apparent Demand - As of June 2025, the apparent consumption of copper was 1.3705 million tons, at a historically high level. Since the beginning of this year, the apparent consumption of copper has been at a high level. The consumption of refined copper in China is expected to increase by about 2% in 2025 and about 0.8% in 2026. As copper prices fell, the quantity of downstream replenishment at low prices increased. Although the current increase in copper demand is limited, with the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, copper consumption is expected to increase [48] 3.10 Copper Products - According to Steel Union data, in July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic refined copper rods was 61.32%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. The market is generally cautious about the consumption of refined copper rods in August. Although a month - on - month increase is expected, the increase in the production schedule of refined copper rods in August is expected to be limited. The production of copper tubes is mainly stable. The weak terminal demand is transmitted from the bottom up, and the change in August is expected to be limited. The operating rate of copper tubes may be boosted after the demand improves in September [53] 3.11 Power Grid Project Data - As of the end of July, the cumulative installed power generation capacity nationwide was 3.67 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 18.2%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.11 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 50.8%; the installed capacity of wind power was 570 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.1%. From January to July, the cumulative average utilization of national power generation equipment was 1,806 hours, a decrease of 188 hours compared with the same period last year. From January to June, the investment in power grid projects was 291.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14.6%, reaching the highest level in the same period in history. From January to June, the investment in power source projects was 363.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. The year - on - year increase in solar and wind power was 98.8% and 107% respectively [57] 3.12 Real Estate and Infrastructure Data - From January to July, the national real estate development investment was 5.358 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.0%. Among them, the investment in residential buildings was 4.1208 trillion yuan, a decrease of 10.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.38731 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2% [63] 3.13 Automobile/New Energy Automobile Industry Data - From August 1 - 17, the retail sales of new energy vehicles were 502,000, a year - on - year increase of 9% and a month - on - month increase of 12%, with a penetration rate of 58%. As the peak season for new energy vehicles is approaching, each new energy vehicle requires 83 kilograms of copper, supporting the expectation of a peak copper season in "Golden September and Silver October" [68] 3.14 Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories - The inventory accumulation speed of LME copper has gradually slowed down and has now risen to the median level in the same period in history. The inventory of COMEX copper has gradually reached an inflection point and basically no longer accumulates significantly. As of August 22, the LME copper inventory was 156,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.24% and a month - on - month increase of 24.95%. The inventory accumulation speed of COMEX has also gradually slowed down. The COMEX copper inventory was 271,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.08% and a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. On August 21, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 93,200 tons, an increase of 6,400 tons compared with the 14th and a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the 18th. The bonded area inventory decreased slightly. With the opening of the import window in recent times, the bonded area goods cleared customs and flowed into the domestic market, but the export goods from smelters still arrived and were stored in the warehouse. The inflow and outflow were relatively balanced, so the change was limited. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange started to accumulate slowly. Although it still fluctuated at a low level, it increased by 3,799 tons compared with the beginning of the month. The demand side did not follow up smoothly for the time being, and the low - level inventory still supported copper prices [73][78]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has strengthened, and non - ferrous metals as a whole are fluctuating strongly. [1] - Different non - ferrous metal varieties have different trends. Copper is expected to be volatile with potential upward space; aluminum is in an upward trend with shock adjustments; zinc is oscillating within a range; and other metals also have their own characteristics and corresponding investment suggestions. [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Main Variety Views Copper - The copper price remained horizontal this week, and the price fluctuation further converged. Powell's dovish speech will boost the copper price. The domestic anti - involution policy continues to deepen, and the relevant varieties are supported. - The domestic copper inventory increased slightly this week but remained at a low level overall. The LME copper inventory increased, the Shanghai - London ratio stopped falling and stabilized, and the copper import profit turned positive. - The downstream consumption has not reached an inflection point, the spot premium has declined, but the decline in copper price has promoted the downstream enterprises' demand for replenishing inventory at low prices. - The copper price is still prone to fluctuations. Considering the subsequent peak - season demand and the high - maintenance expectation in September and October, the market will remain strong. The short - term operating range of Shanghai copper is 78,500 - 79,500 yuan/ton. [3] Aluminum - The mainstream transaction price of Guinea's bulk ore increased by $0.4 per dry ton to $74.5 per dry ton. The rainy season in Guinea has affected the mining and transportation of bauxite, and the bauxite shipment volume has shown a downward trend. - The operating capacity of alumina decreased by 250,000 tons to 95.7 million tons week - on - week, and the national alumina inventory increased by 48,000 tons to 3.423 million tons week - on - week. - The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum increased steadily, with a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons to 44.319 million tons. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.5% to 60% week - on - week. - The overall idea is to go long on dips. [3] Zinc - The zinc price was weakly volatile last week. The supply of zinc concentrates remained loose, and the domestic zinc ore processing fee remained flat last week, while the imported zinc ore processing fee continued to rise month - on - month. - The domestic off - season characteristics are obvious, and downstream enterprises maintain rigid demand procurement with a relatively limited quantity. - As of August 21, the total inventory of SMM's seven - place zinc ingots was 132,900 tons, an increase of 3,700 tons compared with August 14, and the inventory was close to the annual high. - It is expected that the Shanghai zinc will be weakly volatile, and the reference operating range of the main contract is 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton. [3] Other Metals - For lead, nickel, tin, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate, each has its own supply, demand, and inventory situation, and corresponding investment suggestions are given, such as trading within the range, going long on dips, or short - term trading. [3][4] Macroeconomic Data This Week's Macroeconomic Data - The US July new - home starts increased by 5.2% month - on - month, with a forecast of - 1.8% and a previous value of 5.9%. - China's August five - year and one - year loan market quoted interest rates (LPR) remained unchanged at 3.5% and 3% respectively. - The eurozone's July core harmonized CPI year - on - year final value was 2.3%, in line with the forecast and the previous value. [14] Next Week's Macroeconomic Data Calendar - A series of economic data such as the US July Chicago Fed National Activity Index, the US August Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, and China's July industrial enterprise profits above designated size will be released next week. [22] Market Trends and Key Data Tracking of Each Metal - Each metal has content on market trends (such as daily and monthly line charts) and key data tracking (such as inventory, spot premium, and forward curve). For example, copper has information on LME copper inventory, COMEX institutional positions, and Shanghai copper's inter - period spread curve; aluminum has data on electrolytic aluminum social inventory, alumina port inventory, etc. [26][45][63]