Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuates strongly, with a decrease in open interest, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The copper price is strongly supported by cost. The supply is expected to increase slightly, while the demand remains cautious, leading to an accumulation of social inventory. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an expanding red column. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 103,800 yuan/ton, up 2,390 yuan; LME3 - month copper is 13,214 dollars/ton, up 216 dollars. The spread between months of the main contract is - 180 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 182,688 lots, down 5,986 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 60,574 lots, down 16,936 lots. LME copper inventory is 138,975 tons, down 2,100 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons. The cancelled warrants of LME copper are 23,625 tons, down 2,300 tons. The warehouse receipts of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange are 116,622 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of SMM1 copper is 103,235 yuan/ton, up 2,960 yuan; the spot price of 1 copper in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 103,205 yuan/ton, up 2,580 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 46 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 41.5 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is - 565 yuan/ton, up 570 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.94 dollars/ton, up 25.19 dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ores and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 45.41 dollars/kiloton, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 93,480 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan; in Yunnan, it is 94,180 yuan/metal ton, up 2,600 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the north, it is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 123.6 million tons, up 3.2 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 67,990 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 83,150 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.6 million tons, up 22.2 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - The cumulative completed value of power grid infrastructure investment is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed value of real estate development investment is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output value of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. Option Situation - The historical volatility of Shanghai copper for 20 - day is 26.76%, up 0.8%; for 40 - day is 21.93%, up 0.53%. The implied volatility of the current month's at - the - money IV is 29.72%, down 0.0185. The call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.56, up 0.0609 [2]. Industry News - In December 2025, China's CPI rose 0.8% year - on - year, the highest since March 2023. The core CPI rose 1.2% year - on - year, remaining above 1% for four consecutive months. The CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month. The PPI decreased 1.9% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.3 percentage points; it rose 0.2% month - on - month for three consecutive months. The Fed's rate - cut expectation in January 2026 was completely dashed. The U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000. The November data was revised down by 8,000 to 56,000, and the October data was further revised down from a decrease of 105,000 to a decrease of 173,000. The unemployment rate in December dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. After the data release, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in January was almost zero. The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal - financial coordination, and the National Business Work Conference outlined eight key tasks for the business system in 2026. In December 2025, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.261 million units, down 14% year - on - year; the annual cumulative retail sales were 23.744 million units, up 3.8%. The retail sales of new energy passenger cars in December were 1.337 million units, up 2.6% year - on - year; the annual cumulative sales were 12.809 million units, up 17.6%. It is expected that the retail sales of the auto market in 2026 will remain flat, and new energy vehicles will grow by about 10% [2].

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook for the copper industry, with expectations of high price volatility and a supply gap from 2025 to 2026, suggesting a price range of RMB 75,000 to 95,000 per ton [5]. Core Insights - Copper, a fundamental industrial metal, is experiencing a significant transformation in supply-demand dynamics, driven by geopolitical factors and a shift in demand towards new energy and high-tech sectors [4]. - The demand for copper is expected to be fueled by electric vehicles, renewable energy, and AI data centers, with electric vehicles using approximately four times more copper than traditional fuel vehicles [4]. - The copper market is facing challenges such as resource nationalism, rising compliance costs, and technological substitutions like aluminum for copper [5]. Summary by Sections Industry Definition and Value - Copper is categorized as a basic industrial metal with dual attributes: commodity and financial. Its price is influenced by supply-demand fundamentals and macroeconomic factors [8]. Global Policies Impacting the Copper Industry - The report outlines various policies affecting the copper industry, including China's focus on industrial upgrading and the U.S. emphasis on securing domestic copper supply chains [9][10]. Copper Industry Chain - The copper industry encompasses four main segments: mining, smelting, processing, and end consumption, with profits heavily concentrated in the upstream mining sector [11]. Upstream Mining - The upstream segment is critical, with global copper resources concentrated in a few countries. The top five countries hold 56.4% of reserves and 61% of production [14]. Midstream Smelting - The report highlights that over 85% of refined copper is produced through pyrometallurgical methods, with smelting capacity outpacing mining output, leading to a decline in processing fees [21][27]. Downstream Demand - Global copper demand is projected to rise, with construction's share decreasing. In 2024, the demand is expected to reach 2,733 million tons, with China accounting for about half [31][35]. Future Opportunities - The energy transition, driven by electric vehicles and renewable energy, presents significant growth opportunities for copper demand [46]. - The rise of AI and digital infrastructure is creating new high-value applications for copper [47]. - Policies promoting circular economy and recycling are expected to enhance the role of recycled copper in the supply chain [48]. Future Challenges - The industry faces supply risks due to high dependence on foreign copper mines, with a projected tightening of supply by 2025 [51]. - Smelting fees are under extreme pressure, leading to potential operational challenges for domestic smelters [52]. - Compliance costs related to environmental regulations are increasing, posing risks for smaller smelting operations [53].

Core Insights - The city has outlined a development blueprint for the "15th Five-Year Plan," emphasizing the importance of industrial development and the cultivation of new productive forces [1][2][7]. Group 1: Industrial Development - The city aims to "focus on industry and prioritize industrial development," with a commitment to transforming planning into actionable projects [2][3]. - The Economic Development Bureau plans to leverage the "Project Assault Year" to advance key projects, ensuring the implementation of the city's strategic goals [2]. - Traditional industries will be upgraded to high-end production, while emerging industries will be expanded to scale, and future industries will be clustered [2][8]. Group 2: Economic Growth and Planning - The Five-Year Plan emphasizes a solid foundation for economic work, with specific tasks and measures to ensure a strong start [3][10]. - The focus will be on high-quality project work to support economic growth, with a commitment to converting planning documents into actionable plans [3][12]. - The city will actively pursue project construction, particularly in key areas such as energy and materials, to enhance economic stability and growth [9][10]. Group 3: Community and Social Welfare - The meetings highlighted the need to enhance community services and address urgent issues faced by residents, aiming to improve overall quality of life [4][6]. - Initiatives will be implemented to foster a sense of community and shared prosperity among diverse populations [4][6]. - The focus on consumer services, particularly in tourism and cultural sectors, aims to stimulate economic activity and enhance community engagement [5][6]. Group 4: Governance and Implementation - Local governments are encouraged to adopt a proactive approach in implementing the directives from the meetings, ensuring that the spirit of the meetings translates into tangible outcomes [11][12]. - There is a strong emphasis on optimizing the business environment and fostering a supportive ecosystem for enterprises [8][12]. - The commitment to grassroots governance and community engagement is seen as essential for achieving the broader goals of the development plan [11][14].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may oscillate. Traders are advised to conduct light - position oscillatory trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Highlights Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper contract rose first and then fell, with a weekly increase of +3.23% and an amplitude of 6.85%. As of the end of this week, the closing price of the main contract was 101,410 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: US Treasury Secretary Bessent expressed the hope to lower interest rates, and Fed Governor Milan expected a rate cut of about 150 basis points in 2026 [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI, non - manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI were 50.1%, 50.2%, and 50.7% respectively, all rising to the expansion range, indicating an overall recovery of China's economic prosperity [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The copper concentrate TC processing index is running at a low level, and the domestic copper mine supply is still tight, providing strong cost support for copper prices. Smelters are still actively producing due to high copper and by - product prices, with a slight increase expected in January production. However, downstream procurement is cautious due to high copper prices, and new orders are limited in the off - season, leading to light trading in the spot market and an accumulation of industrial inventory [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of January 9, 2026, the basis of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 1,135 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1,715 yuan/ton. The contract price was 101,410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,170 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 188,674 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 19,572 lots [12]. - **Spot Market**: As of January 9, 2026, the average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 100,275 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 3,390 yuan/ton. The monthly spread of the main Shanghai copper contract was - 370 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 790 yuan/ton [18]. - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 46 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 1 US dollar/ton. The net position of the top 20 traders in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 68,487 lots, a decrease of 22,623 lots from last week [22]. 3.3 Option Market - As of January 9, 2026, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper was above the 90th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.669, a decrease of 0.0002 from last week [28]. 3.4 Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 85,270 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2,430 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern crude copper was 2,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 500 yuan/ton [31]. - **Import and Spread**: In November 2025, the import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5262 million tons, an increase of 74,700 tons from October, a growth of 3.05% and a year - on - year growth of 12.55%. The tax - included scrap - refined copper price spread was 6,022.9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3,197.27 yuan/ton [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: In October 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,938 thousand tons, an increase of 37 thousand tons from September, a growth of 1.95%. The global capacity utilization rate was 77.1%, a decrease of 1.2% from September. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 670,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from last week [41]. 3.5 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: In November 2025, the domestic monthly production of refined copper was 1.236 million tons, an increase of 32,000 tons from October, a growth of 2.66% and a year - on - year growth of 9.09%. The global monthly production of refined copper was 2,386 thousand tons, an increase of 21 thousand tons from September, a growth of 0.89%, and the capacity utilization rate was 78.4%, a decrease of 2.1% from September. The monthly import volume of refined copper was 304,712.6 tons, a decrease of 18,404.29 tons from October, a decline of 5.7% and a year - on - year decline of 23.47%. The import profit and loss was 1,009.92 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1,572.42 yuan/ton. The LME total inventory decreased by 4,250 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 15,116 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 29,441 tons. The total social inventory was 284,700 tons, an increase of 13,300 tons from last week [43][49][55]. 3.6 Downstream and Application - **Demand - Side**: In November 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.226 million tons, an increase of 222,000 tons from October, a growth of 11.08%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from October, a decline of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline of 18.87% [61]. - **Application - Side**: In November 2025, the cumulative investment in power grid construction increased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative investment in power source construction decreased by 1.8% year - on - year. The monthly production of washing machines, refrigerators, and freezers increased by 5.5%, 5.6%, and 3.6% year - on - year respectively, while the production of air conditioners and color TVs decreased by 23.4% and 5% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative real estate development investment was 785.909 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9% and a month - on - month increase of 6.84%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 43.184 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.6% and a month - on - month increase of 11.7% [65][71]. 3.7 Overall Situation - According to ICSG statistics, in October 2025, the global refined copper supply exceeded demand by 35 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance was - 1,400 tons [77][78].

铜：LME 库存减少，价格回落受限 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 2026 年 01 月 09 日 铜基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铜主力合约 | 101,220 | -2.12% | 100230 | -0.98% | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 12,702 | -1.27% | - | - | | | | 昨日成交 | 较前日变动 | 昨日持仓 | 较前日变动 | | 期 货 | 沪铜指数 | 808,876 | 50,286 | 690,837 | 3,055 | | | 伦铜3M电子盘 | 35,292 | -8,305 | 325,000 | -4,836 | | | | 昨日期货库存 | 较前日变动 | 注销仓单比 | 较前日变动 | | | 沪铜 | 108,685 | 12,211 | - | - | | | 伦铜 | 141,075 | -2,150 | 18.38% | -1.8 ...

ab Global Research 5 January 2026 Copper Maintain bullish fundamental outlook in 2026 Remain bullish despite near-term disconnect between prices & physical signals LME copper prices are close to record highs at the start of 2026, consensus is bullish, net speculative positioning is elevated and copper equities have re-rated as equity investors position for tightness and further price upside…but most physical market signals are not yet reflecting the tightness the market is positioned for. Whilst the current ...

Group 1 - The domestic copper futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with the main contract opening at 103,200.00 CNY/ton and showing a decline of 2.96% [1] - The market sentiment is neutral to slightly positive due to moderate domestic policy stimulus and weak U.S. economic data, while supply concerns from mining operations in Chile continue to support copper prices [1] - Short-term copper price expectations are for a range of 100,800-104,000 CNY/ton for the Shanghai copper main contract and 12,600-13,100 USD/ton for London copper [1] Group 2 - Guoxin Futures suggests that the short-term pullback in copper prices may be limited, with a medium to long-term outlook remaining strong, recommending investors to manage their positions carefully [2]

Group 1 - Bernstein forecasts an average copper price of $11,500 per ton in Q1 2026, followed by a decline to approximately $10,000 per ton in the second half of the year due to weakening market momentum [2] - Recent copper prices have surpassed $13,000 per ton, attributed to supply disruptions and human factors such as arbitrage trading and labor strikes [2] - The current high copper prices are supported by a structural demand from ongoing electrification trends, which will continue to bolster long-term demand for copper [2] Group 2 - Bernstein anticipates a normalization period for copper prices by 2026, driven by slowing demand growth and the increase of substitutes [2] - A potential slowdown in electric vehicle sales later this year may negatively impact market sentiment [2] - The market remains sensitive to macroeconomic developments, with negative news related to artificial intelligence and the electric vehicle industry potentially triggering rapid liquidation of speculative positions, leading to significant price corrections [2] Group 3 - China, as the largest copper consumer globally, faces three major challenges: increasing reliance on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [3] - To assist the industry in navigating these changes, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile a bilingual distribution map of the Chinese copper industry chain [3]

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a decline, with the main contract falling over 2% in the night session, reflecting a broader weakness in international copper prices [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and continued to decline, with the main contract's drop exceeding 2% [1] - International copper prices are also experiencing a downturn, following the trend in the domestic market [1] Group 2: Influencing Factors - Previous gains in copper prices were supported by concerns over supply tightness and bullish sentiment from rising precious metals [1] - However, domestic demand for copper is being suppressed by high prices, leading to a reversal in the recent upward trend [1] - The adjustment in precious metals at high levels has contributed to the decline in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic copper market is experiencing a significant price increase, with the price of electrolytic copper surpassing 100,000 yuan/ton by the end of 2025, suggesting a strong upward trend for copper prices in 2026 [1][5] - The long-term contract negotiations for 2026 have intensified, reflecting supply concerns and expectations of tight supply in the copper market, as evidenced by the rising prices in long-term contracts across various regions [2][3] - The processing fees for copper concentrate (TC/RC) are at historically low levels, indicating a stalemate in negotiations, which may further exacerbate supply-demand imbalances in the copper market [1][2] Group 2 - The anticipated tightening of supply is supported by forecasts of limited growth in global copper mine production, with expected increases of only 300,000 to 450,000 metric tons in 2026 due to various systemic risks [2][3] - Demand for copper is expected to remain resilient, with projections indicating a marginal growth rate exceeding 4% in global copper demand in 2026, driven by new energy needs and recovering economies [3][5] - The macroeconomic environment is expected to favor copper price increases, with predictions of LME copper prices ranging between 10,800 to 15,000 USD/ton in 2026, supported by a weakening dollar and strong fundamentals [5]