沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，国内供应即将到达天花板，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏 观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货24270，基差-105，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周涨14010吨至143828吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，宏观情绪多变，铝价震荡向上运行 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日现货 | 地方 地方 | 中间价 中间价 | 涨跌 涨跌 | | 类型 类型 | 总量（吨） 总量（吨） | 增减 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-13 铝锭库存超季节性累库 铝合金价格方面：2026-01-12保太民用生铝采购价格18000元/吨，机械生铝采购价格18300元/吨，价格环比昨 日变化100元/吨。ADC12保太报价23400元/吨，价格环比昨日变化100元/吨。 铝合金库存：铝合金社会库存6.82万吨，厂内库存6.45万吨。 铝合金成本利润：理论总成本22988元/吨，理论利润312元/吨。 市场分析 重要数据 铝现货方面：SMM数据，华东A00铝价24340元/吨，较上一交易日变化310元/吨，华东铝现货升贴水-100元/ 吨，较上一交易日变化0元/吨；中原A00铝价24180元/吨，现货升贴水较上一交易日变化10元/吨至-260元/吨； 佛山A00铝价录24390元/吨，较上一交易日变化290元/吨，铝现货升贴水较上一交易日变化-20元/吨至-45元/吨。 铝期货方面：2026-01-12日沪铝主力合约开于24560元/吨，收于24650元/吨，较上一交易日变化610元/吨，最 高价达24915元/吨，最低价达到24370元/吨。全天交易日成交655011手，全天交易日持仓379081手。 ...

中信证券研报表示，展望2026年，我们预计光伏用铝加速下滑，电网和汽车延续高景气度，储能和空调 铝代铜增长有望提速，支撑电解铝需求增长后劲。同时，我们认为即使印尼产能新增投产背景下，行业 供给增速下移仍为趋势，且扰动抬头迹象逐步显现。我们预计2026年铝价中枢将达23000元/吨，持续看 好铝板块盈利、估值齐升行情。 （文章来源：第一财经） ...

| 志特新材 | | 300986 | | --- | --- | --- | | 33.38 SECNY 15:30:48 液 | | +5.56 +19.99% 通 融 △ △ + | | Wind ESG评级 | BB | 详情 | | 交生 | 198.57% 120日 | 150.22% | | 5日 | 148.73% 250日 | 277.71% | | 20日 | 229.19% 52周高 | 27.82 | | 60日 | 186.28% 52周低 | 7.52 | 志特新材分别在1月8日和6日发布了股票交易异常波动公告。 公司同时明确，不存在关于公司应披露而未披露的重大事项，也不存在处于筹划阶段的重大事项。公司及子 公司生产经营正常，主营业务目前未发生重大变化。 志特新材是2026年A股首只翻倍股，也是年内涨幅最大的股票，截至1月12日已6连20cm涨停，近20个交易日 涨近230%。 1月12日晚，志特新材（300986）（300986）公告称，公司股票自2026年1月5日至1月12日连续6个交易日涨 停，涨幅为198.57%，股价波动较大。为维护投资者利益，公司将就股票交易波动情况进行 ...

记者丨刘雪莹 编辑丨曾静娇 1月12日晚，志特新材（300986）公告称，公司股票自2026年1月5日至1月12日连续6个交易日 涨停，涨幅为 198.57% ，股价波动较大。为维护投资者利益， 公司将就股票交易波动情况进 行核查 ，股票自1月13日开市起停牌，预计停牌时间不超过3个交易日。 公司提醒广大投资者 注意二级市场交易风险。 公司同时明确，不存在关于公司应披露而未披露的重大事项，也不存在处于筹划阶段的重大事 项。公司及子公司生产经营正常，主营业务目前未发生重大变化。 志特新材是2026年A股首只翻倍股，也是年内涨幅最大的股票， 截至1月12日已6连20cm涨 停，近20个交易日涨近230%。 志特新材分别在1月8日和6日发布了股票交易异常波动公告。 志特新材属于铝行业，是AI应用、量子计算概念股。近日被称之为"科技春晚"的《中国科技创 新盛典》正式播出，志特新材代理的防火隔热材料产品在节目中亮相。（ 详情 ） （声明：文章内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资者据此操作，风险自担。） SFC 出品 | 2 1财经客户端 2 1世纪经济报道 商业航天ETF爆发，有人7天收益够交1个月房租，多家上市公司紧急 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a bullish sentiment in the aluminum alloy market, driven by macroeconomic factors and policy changes, leading to a significant increase in aluminum prices [1][2] - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy rose to 23,340 yuan, an increase of 525 yuan or 2.30%, with a trading volume of 17,266 lots, down by 2,769 lots, and an open interest of 21,990 lots, up by 342 lots [1] - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,200 yuan per ton, up by 600 yuan, while other grades also saw price increases, indicating a general upward trend in the market [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, both imported and domestic scrap aluminum supplies are tight, and tax adjustments have raised costs in some regions, providing strong support for aluminum prices [2] - Demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and year-end conditions, with alloy plant operating rates dropping to 58%, primarily due to environmental regulations and insufficient orders [2] - The overall market for casting aluminum is characterized by a balance of weak supply and demand, but strong cost support suggests prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Category | 2025/12/31 | 2026/1/9 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina Futures (Active) | 2778 | 2843 | 65 | Yuan/ton | | Domestic Alumina Spot | 2697 | 2693 | - 4 | Yuan/ton | | Spot Premium | 75 | 107 | 32 | Yuan/ton | | Australian Alumina FOB | 307 | 310 | 3 | US dollars/ton | | Import Profit and Loss | - 29.51 | - 67.68 | - 38.2 | Yuan/ton | | Exchange Warehouse Inventory | 156917 | 159642 | 2725 | Tons | | Exchange Factory Warehouse Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0 | Tons | | Bauxite (Shanxi, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 600 | 600 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Henan, 6.0≤Al/Si<7.0) | 590 | 590 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guangxi, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 460 | 460 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Bauxite (Guizhou, 6.5≤Al/Si<7.5) | 510 | 510 | 0 | Yuan/ton | | Guinea CIF | 67.5 | 65 | - 2.5 | US dollars/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - The main alumina futures contract rose 2.34% last week, closing at 2,843 yuan/ton. The national weighted average price in the spot market was reported at 2,693 yuan/ton on Friday, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton from the previous week. [5] - The tight supply situation of domestic bauxite has eased compared to the previous period. Mines in northern regions are gradually resuming production, and with the expected commissioning of new mining areas in the long - term, the supply shortage is expected to gradually ease. Guinea's weekly bauxite exports from major ports reached 4.0808 million tons, an increase of 180,000 tons from the previous week, indicating stable shipments. Australia's bauxite mining and shipments have been significantly affected by the rainy season. [5] - On the supply side, the total built - in production capacity of metallurgical - grade alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the total operating capacity is 88.82 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate of alumina plants in China increased by 0.12 percentage points to 80.51% compared to last week, maintaining a high - level operation. [5] - On the consumption side, electrolytic aluminum enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia have continued to release newly commissioned production capacity, with an increase in operating capacity compared to last week, resulting in a slight increase in alumina demand. [5] - In terms of inventory, the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory was 160,000 tons on Friday, an increase of 4814 tons during the week, and the factory warehouse inventory remained at 0 tons. [5] 3.3 Market Outlook - The supply of domestic bauxite has increased slightly, with mines in northern regions resuming production. Guinea's bauxite shipments are stable, while Australia's are significantly affected by the rainy season. Ore trading has been sluggish recently due to compressed profits at downstream alumina plants, ample ore supply, and heightened wait - and - see sentiment. There are both increases and decreases in supply. Alumina plants in Shanxi have resumed production after maintenance, while new production cuts have occurred in Guizhou. Overall, the operating rate has increased by 0.12% compared to last week. The operating rate of downstream electrolytic aluminum plants has increased slightly, but the increase in demand is limited. The warehouse receipt inventory is 160,000 tons, with an increase of 4,814 tons during the week. [3][7] - The non - ferrous metal sector has generally risen. Driven by the bullish market sentiment, along with previous anti - involution news and the market's high expectations for production cuts at loss - making alumina enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January, the futures price rebounded last week. However, the actual supply - demand pattern of alumina has not changed significantly. The rise in the futures price may lead to increased imports and postpone domestic planned production cuts. Although the futures price has a chance to build a bottom, there is still significant upward pressure on alumina in reality. It is expected that the short - term trend of alumina will be a decline to find support after the rebound. [3][7] 3.4 Industry News - On January 6, 2026, Metro Mining Ltd. released its December 2025 operation report, showing that its bauxite mine achieved an annual shipment volume of 6.2 million wet metric tons in 2025, reaching the lower limit of the revised guidance range, an increase of 500,000 wet metric tons or 9% year - on - year. [8] - Canyon Resources confirmed in an announcement that the development of its Minim Martap bauxite project in Cameroon is progressing smoothly. The surface miner has entered Cameroon, and mining operations are expected to start in February 2026. [8] - On January 5, the Shanxi Provincial Department of Natural Resources publicized the text and review results of the "Exploration Plan for the Yangmaping Block Bauxite Prospecting Right in Fenxi County, Shanxi Province", and the results were approved without objections. [8] 3.5 Related Charts - The report provides charts on the price trends of alumina futures, alumina spot, alumina spot premium, alumina month - to - first - continuous spread, domestic bauxite price, imported bauxite CIF, caustic soda price, thermal coal price, alumina cost - profit, and alumina exchange inventory, which can be used to analyze the market situation of alumina and related raw materials. [10][11][14]

Group 1 - The three major stock indices collectively rose during the week of January 5 to January 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.82% to close at 4120.43 points, marking a 10-year high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.40%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 3.89%, with over 86% of individual stocks rising during the week [1] - Zhite New Materials (300986) became the first stock to double in value this year, achieving a closing price of 27.82 yuan and a total market capitalization of 11.5 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 148.84% over the week [1] Group 2 - Zhite New Materials issued announcements on January 6 and January 8 regarding abnormal stock trading fluctuations, indicating that the stock price had significantly deviated from the market index and posed a risk of rapid decline [3] - The company has maintained its core business in the research, production, and sales of aluminum molds, protective platforms, and prefabricated components since its listing, with no changes reported [4] - Zhite New Materials operates within the aluminum industry and is associated with AI applications and quantum computing concepts, focusing on the development, design, production, rental, and technical services of formwork and prefabricated construction products [4]

Group 1 - The A-share market experienced significant growth, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 3.82% to 4120.43 points, marking a 10-year high, and over 86% of stocks increased in value during the week [1] - Zhite New Materials became the first stock to double in value this year, achieving a closing price of 27.82 yuan and a total market capitalization of 11.5 billion yuan, with a cumulative increase of 148.84% over the week [2] - The company issued announcements regarding abnormal stock price fluctuations, indicating that the recent price surge significantly deviated from the market index and posed a risk of rapid price correction [4] Group 2 - Zhite New Materials specializes in the research, production, and sales of aluminum molds, protective platforms, and prefabricated components, with no changes in its main business since its listing [5] - The company is positioned within the aluminum industry and is associated with AI applications and quantum computing concepts, with its main products including aluminum molds and prefabricated construction products [5] - Recent positive developments in the AI application industry, such as Meta's acquisition of an AI company and the issuance of a special action plan by multiple government departments, have contributed to the favorable market sentiment [5]

Market Performance - The three major stock indices collectively rose in the past week (January 5 - January 9), with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 3.82% to close at 4120.43, marking a 10-year high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 4.40% to 14120.15, while the ChiNext Index increased by 3.89% to 3327.81 [1] - Over 86% of stocks experienced gains during the week, with 488 stocks rising over 15%, and only 7 stocks declining more than 15% [1] Top Performing Stocks - Zhite New Materials (300986.SZ) topped the weekly gainers with a 148.84% increase, followed by Shaoyang Hydraulic (301079.SZ) with an 84.91% rise [2] - Other notable stocks with gains exceeding 61% include Bibet-U (688759.SH), Kuaiji Elevator (002774.SZ), and Fenglong Co. (002931.SZ) [2] - The AI application sector saw significant growth, with Zhite New Materials achieving a 20CM five consecutive limit-up, bringing its market value to 11.5 billion [2] Industry Developments - The AI application sector received positive news, including Meta's acquisition of AI company Manus for potentially billions of dollars, marking its third-largest acquisition [4] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments issued a plan to promote the integration of AI and manufacturing, aiming to develop 3-5 general large models for deep application in the industry [4] - Various sectors, including smart hardware, finance, education, logistics, and agriculture, are increasingly adopting AI applications [4] Company Updates - Zhite New Materials is currently developing fireproof and heat-insulating materials, which are still in the experimental stage and have not yet reached mass production [5] - The company has formed a strategic partnership with a national key laboratory to explore AI and materials science collaboration, aiming to create an innovation platform [6] - Rongke Technology (300290.SZ) led the decline with a 26.59% drop, clarifying that it has no plans for a merger with Chaoguyuan Company [8][10][13]