Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes their fundamentals and market news [2][5]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upwards, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. - **Silver**: Expected to break through and rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Market is cautious, and prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11]. - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: Downside may be limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][23]. - **Aluminum**: Facing upward pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina: Attention should be paid to the impact of the ore end, with a trend strength of -1; Cast aluminum alloy: Will oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: News affects sentiment, and fundamentals are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel: Reality and macro factors are in a game, and steel prices will oscillate, with a trend strength of 0 [2][31]. Energy - **Crude Oil - Related**: - **Fuel oil**: Weakly oscillating at night, may temporarily stabilize in the short - term [5]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: Temporarily weak, with a slight decline in the high - low sulfur spread of the outer - market spot [5]. - **LPG**: Cost support is effective, may rebound in the short - term [5]. - **Coal - Related**: - **Coking coal**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Coke**: Will oscillate widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52]. - **Steam coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and prices will oscillate and stabilize, with a trend strength of 0 [54][57]. Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, pay attention to substantial changes in supply, with a trend strength of 1 [32][35]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fermenting, pay attention to upward space, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **Polysilicon**: Market news continues to ferment, with a trend strength of 1 [36][38]. - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, with a weak unilateral trend [2]. - **MEG**: Low inventory, positive spread arbitrage on dips [2]. - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is released, weakly oscillating [2]. - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market [5]. - **PVC**: Weakly oscillating [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Doubts about production recovery in the origin, waiting for the evolution of contradictions [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: Lack of driving force due to insufficient weather speculation on US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Export expectations improve, US soybeans rise, and domestic soybean meal rebounds [5]. - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot [5]. - **Sugar**: Waiting for guidance from super - expected information [5]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices hit a new high this year [5]. - **Eggs**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season is fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling declines [5]. - **Pigs**: Sentiment has changed [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support below [5]. Others - **Shipping**: For the container shipping index (European line), hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly [5]. - **Logs**: Oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [58][61].

Group 1: Black Materials Market - The black building materials market is experiencing a high-level retreat, with coking coal and coke prices dropping nearly 2% [1] - Iron ore prices have risen to a four-month high, supported by a decrease in global iron ore shipments and a decline in port inventories [3][5] - The demand for iron ore remains supported despite a decrease in pig iron production and high furnace operating rates, indicating a potential for continued price strength [5] Group 2: Polysilicon Market - Polysilicon prices have shown volatility, with a significant intraday increase of over 2%, currently reported at 43,200 yuan/ton [6] - The market anticipates potential policy changes regarding capacity exit, which could open up price levels to 45,000 yuan/ton if supported by various factors [8] - The industry is closely monitoring downstream demand and pricing dynamics, as well as upcoming policy meetings that may influence market sentiment [8][9] Group 3: Shipping and Logistics - The European shipping index saw an increase of over 8% due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, although it later stabilized to less than 2% [10] - The rise in the shipping index is also attributed to the recovery of the U.S. economy, which has boosted international trade demand [10] - Analysts expect the European shipping index to maintain a fluctuating upward trend, influenced by geopolitical developments and economic recovery [10]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the futures market and shipping industry, focusing on the impact of tariff policies and market dynamics on shipping rates and cargo volumes [1][2][4][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Market Reaction to Tariff Policies** The futures market has shown a strong rebound, particularly in August contracts, which are influenced by current spot prices due to the ban on certain contracts. This indicates a close correlation between spot prices and futures contracts [1][2]. 2. **Impact of Recent Negotiations** Negotiations that began on July 7 between the U.S. and other countries have led to a more favorable outcome compared to April's tariffs. This has resulted in a market rebound as negative sentiments have eased [2][7]. 3. **Future Tariff Pressures** Despite the recent rebound, there are concerns about increased tariffs set to take effect before 2024, which will continue to exert pressure on future contracts due to rising costs [2][9]. 4. **Stability in Freight Rates** Current high-frequency data indicates that freight rates remain stable, with no significant increases or decreases in shipping capacity and cargo volume [3][6]. 5. **Cargo Volume Trends** The shipping industry has seen varied trends in cargo volumes across different routes, with significant increases noted in African shipping routes, which have absorbed a lot of shipping capacity [5][10]. 6. **Seasonal Freight Rate Patterns** Seasonal patterns in freight rates have been observed, with a notable increase in rates following a period of tariff-induced export slowdowns. This has led to a recovery in shipping demand and rates [6][12]. 7. **Regional Shipping Dynamics** The records highlight that shipping capacity to regions like Africa and the Mediterranean is increasing, indicating a positive outlook for cargo volumes in these areas [10][11]. 8. **Future Market Expectations** There is a cautious optimism regarding future market conditions, with expectations that freight rates may continue to rise if shipping capacity and demand remain aligned [14][15]. Other Important Insights - The records emphasize the need for continuous monitoring of high-frequency data to capture rapid changes in the shipping market [3][12]. - The relationship between shipping capacity and freight rates is crucial, as fluctuations in one can significantly impact the other [14]. - The potential for further negotiations and tariff adjustments remains a critical factor influencing market sentiment and trading strategies [8][9].

Report Information - Report Type: Daily Report on Container Shipping Index [18] - Date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Research Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The price increase in July was better than expected, and the SCFIS settlement index rebounded above 2400 points. Major airlines remained stable, possibly supported by good cargo demand. The 08 contract was still at a discount to the spot index and had some room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The price increase in July was better than expected. The SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half of the month, and other airlines' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. In August, only a few airlines had reported freight rates. HPL continued to use the late - July rates, and CMA CGM increased rates by $800 compared to late July [8]. - **Operation Suggestions**: Referring to historical patterns, the peak season usually reached its high in the third week of July, and freight rates would return to early - July levels by late August. The 08 contract was at a discount to the spot index and had room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread arbitrage opportunities at low prices should be focused on [8]. 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From July 7 - 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable. The comprehensive index decreased slightly. Different routes had different price trends due to supply - demand differences [9]. - **European Route**: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation had no clear result, and the market faced uncertainties. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates were flat. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% [9]. - **Mediterranean Route**: The supply - demand situation was weaker than the European route, and the spot booking price decreased slightly. On July 11, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% [9]. - **North American Route**: The "tariff war" was a focus. Trump extended the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period to August 1. The US set new tariff rates and planned to impose a 50% tariff on copper. Transport demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On July 11, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to US West and East basic ports were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [9][10]. - **EU - US Trade Negotiation**: The US and the EU were trying to reach a temporary trade agreement, but automobile and agricultural product tariffs were key issues. Any agreement might be overturned by Trump. The US imposed 50% tariffs on EU steel and aluminum products, 25% on automobiles, and 10% on other goods. The EU planned counter - measures, with the scale adjusted from 950 billion euros to 720 billion euros [10]. - **Trump's Tariff Plan**: Trump planned to impose a 15% or 20% unified tariff on almost all trading partners that had not been taxed [10]. - **Yemen Houthi Rebels**: The Houthi rebels in Yemen would continue to ban Israeli - related ships from passing through the Red Sea and other areas as long as Israel continued its aggression and blockade of Gaza [10]. 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices | Route | July 14, 2025 | July 7, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SCFIS: European Route (Basic Ports) | 2421.94 | 2258.04 | 163.9 | 7.3% | | SCFIS: US West Route (Basic Ports) | 1266.59 | 1557.77 | - 291.18 | - 18.7% | [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - The trading data of container shipping European line futures on July 15 showed that different contracts had different price increases, with EC2510 and EC2512 having relatively large increases of 15.38% and 16.06% respectively [6]. 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - The report provided charts on global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [17][20]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil market rating for the current week has been adjusted from relatively strong to neutral and volatile [5] Core Views - **Crude Oil**: In Q2, global oil inventories increased by 2.7%, accelerating marginally from 2% in Q1. In the first week of Q3, overall inventories decreased by 0.3% due to crude oil destocking and refined oil stockpiling. The upward drive of strong real - world factors on oil prices may be weakening, and the further upside for Brent above $70 per barrel is limited [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Last week, global fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.7% week - on - week and remained at a low level. The spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils in Singapore widened [5] - **Asphalt**: In June, refinery production exceeded the plan, breaking the de - stocking pattern. The increase in asphalt supply is still uncertain, and demand recovery is expected to be delayed [5] - **Natural Gas**: High temperatures have boosted market demand. In the US, the upside is limited before further strengthening of power demand. In Europe, the market is expected to remain volatile [8] - **LPG**: Middle East production pressure persists, and the overseas price continues to be weak. The domestic market is currently experiencing weak supply and demand, with the futures market showing weak volatility [8] - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price. In the medium term, freight rates are likely to decline seasonally [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Energy & Shipping Price Trends - **Energy Commodities**: Last week, crude - related products continued to rise, with Brent up 3.1%. By - products LPG and fuel oil were weak. The natural gas market showed mixed performance, with European gas up 5.2% and US gas down 0.89%. The steam coal market continued to rebound [4] - **Shipping**: European route quotes mostly remained stable in late July. US route freight rates bottomed out and stabilized, with SCFI West & East US routes up 5% and 1.2% week - on - week respectively [4] Crude Oil & Oil Products Chain Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The crude oil monthly spread declined from a high. The premium of domestic futures was strong. The spot premium of crude oil declined slightly from a high [10] - **Crack Spreads**: Overseas gasoline and diesel crack spreads fluctuated, and the crack spread of high - sulfur fuel oil weakened. Domestic energy - chemical product crack spreads continued to decline with the rebound of crude oil [12] - **Global Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: The 7 - day average of global commercial flights was down 1.2% year - on - year. The 4 - week average of US refined oil apparent demand was down 1.6% year - on - year [13] - **China's Oil Consumption High - Frequency Indicators**: China's ground congestion index was flat year - on - year, and highway truck traffic was up 0.8% year - on - year. The number of domestic flights was up 2% year - on - year [17] - **Refining Profits & Refinery Operations**: The comprehensive refining profits of refineries in three regions and the refining margins of Chinese refineries are presented in the report, along with refinery capacity utilization rates [19] - **China & India Procurement Shipping Schedules**: In June, China's above - scale crude oil processing volume was up 8.5% year - on - year, and imports were up 7.4% year - on - year. India's crude oil imports and refining product demand also showed certain trends [22] - **Major Oil - Producing Countries' Shipping Schedules**: The shipping schedules of major oil - producing countries such as OPEC 9 countries, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iran are presented [24] - **US Crude Oil Production**: Data on US crude oil production, including production volume, four - week average year - on - year growth rate, and rig counts, are provided [26] - **Crude Oil Inventories**: Data on on - land commercial inventories, floating storage inventories, and total inventories of crude oil are presented [28] - **Refined Oil Inventories**: Data on global refined oil inventories, including light distillates, diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil, are provided [31] - **Fund Positions**: The relative net long positions of management funds in Brent and WTI crude oil are presented [33] Asphalt Key Volume and Price Data - **High - Frequency Supply and Demand**: The shipment volume of domestic refinery asphalt increased slightly week - on - week, and the cumulative year - on - year increase decreased by 1 percentage point to 7% compared to the end of June [5] - **Inventory**: Data on domestic asphalt inventories, including refinery inventories and trader inventories, are provided [38] Natural Gas Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the TTF - balance spread, JKM - TTF spread, and HH forward curve are presented [41] - **Short - Term Temperature Forecast**: Short - term temperature forecasts for regions such as Northwest Europe, the US, and China are provided [46] - **European Consumption and LNG Imports**: Data on natural gas consumption and LNG imports in Europe are presented [49] - **US Production and Global LNG Exports**: Data on US natural gas production and LNG exports from the US, Qatar, and Australia are provided [51] - **Inventory Levels and Change Rates**: Data on natural gas inventory levels and change rates in the US and Europe are presented [53] LPG Key Volume and Price Data - **Core Spreads**: Data on key spreads such as the PG - FEI spread, ether - post - carbon - four - civil - gas spread, and Far - East propane - naphtha spread are presented [55] - **Inventory Levels**: Data on propane inventories in the US, refinery inventories in China, and port storage capacity utilization rates in South and East China are provided [57] Steam Coal Key Volume and Price Data - **Trade Spreads and Profits**: Data on inland trade shipping profits, high - calorie coal premiums at Bohai Rim ports, and the import advantages of imported coal are presented [59] - **Upstream Supply**: Data on the weekly production of 442 coal mines in the Three Western Regions, Ordos coal mine operating rates, and China's imported steam coal weekly shipments are provided [62] - **Mid - Stream Transportation**: Data on the supply - demand surplus, number of ships, and inventories at four Bohai Rim ports, as well as inland port inventories, are presented [64] - **Downstream Manufacturing & Construction Industry Prosperity**: Data on sub - industry PMIs, real estate sales areas, cement and coal - to - methanol operating rates, and steel mill blast furnace capacity utilization rates are provided [66] - **Downstream Daily Consumption & Inventory**: Data on the daily consumption and inventory of eight coastal provinces, seventeen inland provinces, and twenty - five provinces across the country are presented [68][69] Container Shipping (European Route) Key Volume and Price Data - **Price Trends**: The spot price was stronger than expected last week. The short - term futures market will fluctuate with the spot price, and the basis will gradually converge [71] - **Capacity Turnover**: Data on the idle capacity, sailing speed of container ships, and the scale of container ships in ports in Northwest Europe and Asia are presented [76]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a strong rebound in the shipping market, with the main futures contract closing with a gain of 15.38%, leading the market [1] Group 2 - The article raises questions about the future outlook for the shipping market following this significant increase in contract prices [1]

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: July 15, 2025 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The spot price increase in July exceeded expectations, with the SCFIS settlement index rising above 2400 points. Major shipping companies maintained stable prices, possibly supported by good cargo demand. The 08 contract is still at a discount to the spot index and has room for repair. For the traditional off - season in October, pay attention to short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - **Spot Market**: On July 14, the SCFIS settlement index rose above 2400 points. Maersk's mid - July quotes were slightly higher than the first half of the month, and other shipping companies' quotes converged to $3300 - 3500. For August, only a few shipping companies have reported rates, and it remains to be seen if others will follow the price hikes [8]. - **Contract Opportunities**: The 08 contract has room for repair as it is at a discount to the spot index. In October, a traditional off - season, focus on short - selling opportunities and 08 - 10 positive spread opportunities at low prices [8]. 3.2行业要闻 - **Market Overview**: From July 7 to 11, the China export container shipping market was generally stable, with freight rates fluctuating by route. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) dropped 1.7% to 1733.29 points on July 11 [9]. - **European Routes**: The eurozone's July SENTIX investor confidence index rose to 4.5, indicating stable economic recovery. However, the EU - US tariff negotiation remained uncertain. The freight rate from Shanghai to European basic ports on July 11 was $2099/TEU, down 0.1% [9]. - **Mediterranean Routes**: The supply - demand fundamentals were weaker than European routes, with the spot booking price slightly dropping. The freight rate from Shanghai to Mediterranean basic ports on July 11 was $2667/TEU, down 7.0% [9]. - **North American Routes**: Due to the "tariff war", the freight rates from Shanghai to US West and East basic ports on July 11 were $2194/FEU and $4172/FEU, up 5.0% and 1.2% respectively [9][10]. - **EU - US Trade Negotiations**: Auto and agricultural product tariffs were the key issues. Any agreement was subject to Trump's decision, and the EU was considering a second - round counter - measure with a reduced scale to 72 billion euros [10]. - **Trump's Tariff Plan**: Trump planned to impose a 15% or 20% unified tariff on almost all remaining trading partners [10]. - **Yemen Houthi Rebels**: The Houthi rebels prohibited Israeli - related ships from passing through the Red Sea, and two cargo ships were sunk in the Red Sea within a week [10]. 3.3数据概览 - **Container Shipping Spot Prices**: On July 14, the SCFIS for European routes was 2421.94 points, up 7.3% from July 7; the SCFIS for US West routes was 1266.59 points, down 18.7% [12]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures**: The trading data of EC2508, EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, and EC2606 contracts on July 14, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change, were provided [6]. - **Shipping - Related Data Charts**: Included charts of global container shipping capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [17][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Amid geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, trading in the shipping market is challenging. It is recommended to participate with light positions or stay on the sidelines. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle East situation, and spot freight rates [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Situation - Trump plans to impose a unified tariff of 15% or 20% on almost all remaining trading partners, targeting Southeast Asian countries to crack down on re - export trade. The tariff negotiation date has been postponed to August 1st, and some shipping companies have announced freight rate increases. The spot market price range is set, with small price hikes to test the market, leading to a slight rebound in the market [2][4]. - The cease - fire in Gaza cannot be reached immediately, and the Houthi rebels continue to attack Israeli - related ships. Spot freight rates are stable, and the market is filled with mixed long and short information, causing the market to fluctuate widely [2]. - On July 11, the main contract 2508 closed at 2030.6, down 0.71%, with a trading volume of 34,600 lots and an open interest of 30,900 lots, a decrease of 403 lots from the previous day [2]. Freight Rate Index - On July 7, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 2258.04 points, up 6.3% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1557.77 points, down 3.8% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1218.03 points, down 3.19% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 1435.21 points, down 0.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1186.59 points, up 0.85% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1733.29 points, down 30.20 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 2099 USD/TEU, down 0.10% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 2194 USD/FEU, up 5.03% from the previous period [1]. - On July 11, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1313.70 points, down 2.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1726.41 points, up 1.9% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 1027.49 points, down 5.2% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in June was 49.4, with an expected value of 49.8 and a previous value of 49.4. The preliminary value of the service PMI was 50, a two - month high, with an expected value of 50 and a previous value of 49.7. The preliminary value of the composite PMI was 50.2, with an expected value of 50.5 and a previous value of 50.2. The Sentix investor confidence index was 0.2, with an expected value of - 6 and a previous value of - 8.1 [1]. - The Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) in June was 50.4, 2.1 percentage points higher than in May, the same as in April, and back above the critical point [1]. - The preliminary value of the US Markit manufacturing PMI in June was 52, the same as in May, higher than the expected value of 51, the highest level since February; the preliminary value of the service PMI was 53.1, lower than the previous value of 53.7, higher than the expected value of 52.9, a two - month low; the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 52.8, lower than the previous value of 53, higher than the expected value of 52.1, a two - month low [1]. Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The short - term market is likely to rebound. Risk - takers are advised to take a light long position below 1300 for the 2510 contract (already with a profit margin of over 100 points). Consider partial profit - taking when the market rallies today. For the EC2512 contract, a light short position is recommended above 1650, with stop - loss and take - profit levels set [3]. - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international instability, the market shows a positive - spread structure with large fluctuations. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines or take a light - position attempt [3]. - Long - term strategy: For all contracts, take profit when the price rallies, wait for the price to stabilize after a pullback, and then determine the subsequent direction [3]. Contract Adjustments - The daily limit for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 16%. - The company's margin for contracts 2506 - 2604 is adjusted to 26%. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2506 - 2604 is 100 lots [3].

Report Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The index has broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, and the center continues to rise. However, cautions are needed when testing key positions. The bullish spread strategy can be adopted for stock index futures. For bonds, wait for adjustment and stabilization before increasing positions. Gold and silver have different trends, and different trading strategies are recommended. For various industrial products and agricultural products, different trading suggestions are given according to their respective fundamentals and market conditions [2] Summary by Categories Financial - Stock index: The large - financial sector strongly pushes up the stock index, which hits a new high again. Consider buying low - strike put options and then selling high - strike put options to implement the bullish spread strategy [2] - Bond: The bond market lacks drivers, and the strong performance of the equity market suppresses the bond market. However, the fundamentals and capital still support the bond market. In the short - term, there may be opportunities to increase positions after adjustment and stabilization. The curve strategy recommends focusing on steepening in the medium - term [2] Metals - Precious metals: Gold price fluctuates around $3300 (765 yuan), and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold call options above 790. Silver price is approaching the annual high, and there is still room for further increase if it stabilizes at $37 (9000 yuan) in the short - term [2] - Industrial metals: For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, the sentiment has improved. For coking coal, coke, copper, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum, zinc, etc., different trading suggestions are given according to their market conditions such as price trends, supply - demand relationships, and inventory levels [2][3] Energy and Chemicals - Energy: Crude oil prices have回调 due to tariff contradictions impacting demand. It is not recommended to chase high in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2] - Chemicals: For urea, PX, PTA, short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc., trading suggestions are given based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and market sentiment [2] Agricultural Products - For soybeans, corn, soy oil, white sugar, cotton, eggs, apples, dates, peanuts, and other agricultural products, different trading strategies are recommended according to their supply - demand situations, price trends, and market news [2] Special Commodities - Glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere and macro - sentiment respectively, and corresponding trading suggestions are given. For industrial silicon, it is recommended to wait and see [2] New Energy - For polysilicon and lithium carbonate, their price trends are described, and the trading suggestion is to wait and see [2]