Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS has dropped below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the first half of September have been further reduced, putting pressure on the October contract. However, the current main 10 - contract has a deep discount, and there was an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly boosted by the expectation of increased empty sailings during the National Day. But the scale of empty sailings this year has not significantly exceeded last year, and the overall shipping capacity has increased, so the boosting effect may not be strong. There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Situation**: The SCFIS has been falling for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in September have decreased. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, and the decline exceeds market expectations, bringing pressure to the October contract. The main 10 - contract has a deep discount and had an oversold rebound on Tuesday, possibly due to the expectation of increased National Day empty sailings. However, the boosting effect may be limited [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: There may be low - buying opportunities for the December contract, and the 10 - contract is recommended to be short - sold on rallies [8] 2. Industry News - **Overall Market**: From August 25th to 29th, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing different trends due to supply - demand fundamentals, and the composite index rose slightly [9] - **European Route**: In August, the euro - area economic sentiment index was lower than expected, consumer confidence and industrial indices declined. Shipping demand lacked growth momentum, and market freight rates continued to fall. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Europe basic port market freight rate was $1481/TEU, a 11.2% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Route**: The market situation was similar to the European route, with weak supply - demand fundamentals and falling spot booking prices. On August 29th, the Shanghai - Mediterranean basic port market freight rate was $2145/TEU, a 3.6% decrease from the previous period [9] - **North American Route**: The US Markit manufacturing PMI in August reached the highest level since May 2022, showing strong economic performance, but there was inflation pressure. Shipping demand was stable, and market freight rates rebounded. On August 29th, the Shanghai - US West and East basic port market freight rates were $1923/FEU and $2866/FEU respectively, rising 17.0% and 9.7% from the previous period [10] - **Geopolitical News**: There were military conflicts in Yemen, with threats from the Houthi movement and Iran escalating. The US State Department held the PLO and Palestinian Authority responsible for undermining peace [10] 3. Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - On September 1, 2025, the SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) was 1773.6, a 10.9% decrease from August 25th; the SCFIS for the US West route (basic ports) was 1013.9, a 2.6% decrease from August 25th [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market** - Provided trading data for EC2510, EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, and EC2608 contracts on September 3, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Included charts of Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index, container shipping futures contract trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship order backlog, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [13][17][21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the current economic situation from the perspectives of economic growth and inflation. In terms of economic growth, the production side shows a mixed trend with high - level power plant consumption but declines in blast furnace and tire operating rates in some areas, while the demand side sees a marginal decline in building material prices. Regarding inflation, most industrial product prices are falling, with the CPI affected by the drop in pork prices and the PPI showing a complex situation of price changes in different industrial products [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Economic Growth: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices 3.1.1 Production: High - level Power Plant Consumption - Power plant consumption remains at a high level. On September 2, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 922,000 tons, a 2.6% decrease from August 26. On August 26, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.469 million tons, a 0.3% increase from August 19. With the end of the summer peak approaching, power plant consumption in eight coastal provinces is expected to remain high [4][11]. - The blast furnace operating rate has declined locally. On August 29, the national blast furnace operating rate was 83.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.0%, a 0.3 - percentage - point decrease. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 88.6%, a 3.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 22, affected by environmental protection restrictions [4][17]. - The tire operating rate has declined slightly. On August 28, the operating rate of truck full - steel tires was 63.8%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from August 21, and the operating rate of car semi - steel tires was 72.8%, a 0.4 - percentage - point decrease. However, the operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has continued to rise [4][19]. 3.1.2 Demand: Marginal Decline in Building Material Prices - At the beginning of the month, the sales volume of new houses in 30 cities has rebounded month - on - month. From September 1 - 2, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 189,000 square meters, a 19.0% increase from August, a 54.4% increase from September last year, but a 21.8% decrease from September 2023. The rebound trend needs further confirmation. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities have increased year - on - year [4][24]. - The retail trend in the auto market is stable. In August, retail sales increased by 3% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 12% year - on - year [4][24][25]. - Steel prices have generally fallen. On September 2, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.5%, and 0.9% respectively compared to August 26. Steel inventories are slowly accumulating [4][31]. - Cement prices have returned to a downward trend. On September 2, the national cement price index decreased by 1.3% compared to August 26, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions falling more than the national average. The year - on - year decline in cement prices has widened [4][32]. - The decline in glass prices has widened. On September 2, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,142 yuan per ton, a 3.5% decrease from August 26. The demand side is significantly affected by the real estate market, and the implementation effect of policies remains to be seen [4][38]. - The container shipping freight index has stabilized locally. On August 29, the CCFI index decreased by 1.6% from August 22, while the SCFI index increased by 2.1%. The freight rate of the US route has stopped falling and rebounded, mainly due to shipping companies' capacity control [4][40]. 3.2 Inflation: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling 3.2.1 CPI: Pork Prices Fall Below 20 Yuan - Pork prices have fallen below 20 yuan. On September 2, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.8 yuan per kilogram, a 1.0% decrease from August 26. In September, the theoretical supply of live pigs is expected to increase [4][46]. - The agricultural product price index is the second - lowest in the same period in the past five years. On September 2, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to August 26. Different agricultural products have different price trends [4][51]. 3.2.2 PPI: Most Industrial Product Prices are Falling - Oil prices have risen slightly. On September 2, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $69.5 and $65.6 per barrel respectively, a 3.0% and 3.7% increase from August 26. The uncertainty of Russian oil supply supports oil prices [4][56]. - Copper and aluminum prices have rebounded. On September 2, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 0.7% and 0.2% respectively compared to August 26. However, the domestic commodity index has turned down month - on - month [4][59]. - Industrial product prices have turned down month - on - month. Since September, most industrial product prices have fallen, with coking coal and coke having relatively large declines. Most industrial product prices are also down year - on - year [4][63].

Market Overview - The main contracts showed a bearish sentiment with 23 contracts rising and 56 contracts falling, indicating a concentration of trading activity in declining varieties [2] - The most significant increases were seen in egg futures (+2.62%) and gold futures (+1.33%), while lithium carbonate futures experienced the largest drop (-3.07%) [5][6] Capital Flow - The highest capital inflows were observed in gold futures (1.255 billion yuan) and copper futures (1.046 billion yuan), indicating strong interest from major funds [8] - Conversely, significant capital outflows were noted in the CSI 300 index (-3.425 billion yuan) and the CSI 500 index (-3.333 billion yuan), suggesting a withdrawal of funds from these products [8] Position Changes - Notable increases in open interest were recorded for rice futures (+25.82%) and international copper futures (+12.07%), indicating new funds entering the market [11] - Significant decreases in open interest were observed in the Shanghai Composite index (-9.95%) and asphalt futures (-12.07%), suggesting a withdrawal of major funds [11] Key Events - Methanol port inventory increased by 128,400 tons to a total of 1.4277 million tons, with significant accumulation in East China [12] - Gold prices reached new highs driven by market risk aversion, with the U.S. 30-year Treasury yield approaching the psychological level of 5% [12][13] Industry Insights - The Mongolian ETT company's auction of 32,000 tons of coking coal failed to attract buyers, reflecting a tight supply situation but weak demand due to low prices [14] - Shanying Paper's six major bases will undergo maintenance from September 29 to October 6, which may impact production stability [15] Production Data - China's urea production from January to August 2025 reached 47.42 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.7%, with August production dropping to 5.92 million tons [16] - The average daily production of urea recently was 19.27 million tons, showing a slight decrease, while inventory levels were higher than the previous year [24][25] Future Outlook - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Federal Reserve's Beige Book, which may indicate economic pressures and influence interest rate expectations [17] - Upcoming reports on palm oil production and supply from Indonesia are anticipated to provide insights into market dynamics [18][19]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - MSC announced the National Day suspension plan, and the market rebounded significantly yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectation. Due to large recent fluctuations, it's not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set [2] - Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, the game is difficult, so it's recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [4] - Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Freight Index - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the NCFI (European route) was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS (US West route) was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI (US West route) was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2] - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI European line price was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the CCFI (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI (European route) was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI (US West route) was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Economic Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51); the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9, improving for three consecutive months and reaching the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected value of 50.7; the August Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous value 4.5) [2] - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2] - The preliminary value of the US August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7); the preliminary value of the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension continued, with no substantial progress in negotiations. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the spot price has slightly declined [4] - On September 2, the main contract 2510 closed at 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, and the far - month contract is strong. Risk - takers are advised to try going long lightly around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to subsequent market trends, don't hold losing positions, and set stop - losses [5] - Arbitrage strategy: Against the backdrop of international turmoil, each contract still follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It's recommended to wait and see or try lightly [5] - Long - term strategy: It's recommended to take profits when each contract rallies, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [5] Other Information - The daily limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 18% [5] - The company's margin for contracts from 2508 to 2606 is adjusted to 28% [5] - The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] - Geopolitical conflicts include the Houthi rebels' attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea and explosions in multiple places in Syria [6]

Group 1: Report Core View - MSC announced a suspension plan for the National Day holiday, and the market rebounded sharply yesterday, in line with the daily report's expectations. Due to large recent fluctuations, it is not recommended to increase positions, and stop - loss should be set. Considering geopolitical conflicts and tariff uncertainties, it is advisable to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [2][4] - Although the latest SCFIS index dropped significantly, the market quickly rose due to the intensification of the Middle - East situation and high bullish sentiment. Then, after some funds left the market, the market slightly declined and then fluctuated. Attention should be paid to tariff policies, the Middle - East situation, and spot freight rates [4] Group 2: Shipping Index Data SCFIS and NCFI - On September 1, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period. On August 29, the NCFI (composite index) was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period [2] SCFI and CCFI - On August 29, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2] Group 3: Economic Data Eurozone - In August, the preliminary Eurozone manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous 51), the preliminary composite PMI rose to 51.1 (higher than July's 50.9, the highest since May 2024, higher than the expected 50.7), and the Sentix investor confidence index was - 3.7 (expected 8, previous 4.5). In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [2] US - In August, the preliminary US S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (39 - month high, estimated 49.5, previous 49.8), the preliminary services PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous 55.7), and the Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3 (the highest since May 2022, expected 49.7, previous 49.8) [3] Group 4: Market and Trading Information Futures Market - On September 2, the closing price of the main contract 2510 was 1340.7, up 3.62%, with a trading volume of 77,900 lots and an open interest of 54,100 lots, an increase of 1886 lots from the previous day [4] Trading Strategies - Short - term strategy: The main contract is weak, while the far - month contracts are strong. Risk - takers are advised to lightly test long positions around 1300 for the 2510 contract and increase long positions around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Follow - up market trends should be monitored, and holding losing positions is not recommended. Stop - loss should be set. - Arbitrage strategy: Amid international turmoil, each contract follows seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. - Long - term strategy: For each contract, it is recommended to take profits when the price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back before determining the subsequent direction [5] Contract Rules - The daily price limit for contracts from 2508 to 2606 has been adjusted to 18%. The margin for these contracts has been adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts from 2508 to 2606 is 100 lots [5] Group 5: Geopolitical Events - On September 1, the Houthi armed forces in Yemen launched a missile at an Israeli oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. On the night of September 1, there were explosions in multiple areas of Syria, including the western rural area of Daraa Province in the south, most blocks of Aleppo City in the north, and near Jableh City in Latakia Province in the west [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, downstream customers are booking shipping space for the first half of September (week 36 - 37). Week 36's average quoted price is $2,270 (equivalent to 1,600 points on the futures), and Week 37's is $2,125 (1,450 points). The overall shipping capacity in September has been reduced, mainly due to additional sailings cancellations by the OA Alliance's FAL3 in week 37, and PA & MSC's FE3 in weeks 39 and 41, and FE4 in week 41. The average weekly shipping capacity in September and October is 296,000 and 309,000 TEU respectively, and after classifying all TBN sailings as cancellations, it becomes 296,000 and 281,000 TEU. The situation in September is relatively relaxed, and the downward trend is expected to continue for at least two more weeks. In October, attention should be paid to shipping companies' sailing cancellation actions. In terms of valuation, the price of the 10 - contract is approaching the annual low (1,250 - 1,300), with limited downward space. The 12 - contract may decline in the short term but is in the peak season and long - term contract negotiation period, so opportunities to go long at low prices can be considered [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content EC Futures Contracts - EC2510 closed at 1,340.7 with a 3.82% increase, trading volume of 36,023 and open interest of 54,157, an increase of 1,886 [1]. - EC2512 closed at 1,733.5 with a 5.64% increase, trading volume of 7,001 and open interest of 16,673, an increase of 178 [1]. - EC2602 closed at 1,550.1 with a 6.08% increase, trading volume of 1,133 [1]. - EC2604 closed at 1,246.9 with a 0.41% increase, trading volume of 877 and open interest of 7,199, an increase of 130 [1]. - EC2606 closed at 1,438.9 with a 0.73% increase, trading volume of 68 [1]. Month - to - Month Spreads - The spread between EC2510 - 2512 was - 392.8, a daily decrease of 43.3 and a weekly decrease of 88.3 [1]. - The spread between EC2512 - 2602 was 183.4, a daily increase of 3.8 and a weekly increase of 3.7 [1]. Shipping Freight Indexes - The SCFIS SCFI (European route) on September 1, 2025, was $1,481/TEU, a decrease of 100.00% from the previous period and 8.71% from the period before last [1]. - The CCFI on August 29, 2025, was 1,685.8, a decrease of 4.09% from the previous period [1]. - The NCFI on August 29, 2025, was 929.56, a decrease of 14.23% from the previous period [1]. Recent European Route Quotations - Week 36: The latest quoted prices from shipping companies range from $2,120 - 2,420, with an average of $2,250 (1,550 points). PA Alliance's price is $2,200 - 2,300, MSK's initially $2,100 then rose to $2,200, and OA Alliance's is $2,300 - 2,400 [2]. - Week 37: The average quoted price is $2,100 (1,450 points). MSK's price is $1,900 (later rose to $1,950), PA Alliance's is $2,100 - 2,150, and OA Alliance's is $2,100 - 2,300 [2]. - Week 38: MSK's opening quoted price is $1,700. On Tuesday, HMM decreased by $100 to $2,100, HPL by $100 to $1,935, MSC by $100 to $2,040, and OOCL maintained at $1,950 - 2,000 [2]. Related News - On September 2, 2025, the Israeli military stated that its military operations in Gaza City had advanced to a new area, and it would intensify its actions until the "enemy is completely defeated" [3]. - On September 1, 2025, the Houthi armed forces claimed to have attacked an oil tanker in the northern Red Sea. After the Israeli military's air - strike on Sanaa on August 28, the Houthi armed forces' leader announced retaliation and an escalation of military attacks and shipping blockades against Israel [3].

Report Overview - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The SCFIS has fallen below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in the first half of September have been further reduced. The price shows a characteristic of smooth decline in the off - season, putting pressure on the October contract. However, the current main October contract has a deep discount, and today's oversold rebound may be boosted by the expectation of adding empty sailings during the National Day. Attention should be paid to whether the marginal benefits will continue and materialize to help stabilize. The December contract may have low - buying opportunities, while the October contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - The SCFIS has dropped below 1800 points for seven consecutive weeks, and the online quotes in early September have been further reduced. The price of the Shanghai - Rotterdam route shows a smooth decline in the off - season, exceeding market expectations and pressuring the October contract. The main October contract has a deep discount, and today's rebound may be due to the expectation of adding National Day empty sailings. The 10 - contract is recommended to be short - allocated on rallies, while the 12 - contract may have low - buying opportunities [8] 3.2 Industry News - From August 25th to 29th, the overall Chinese export container shipping market was stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. The comprehensive index rose slightly. The European and Mediterranean routes saw a decline in freight rates due to weak economic indicators and lack of demand growth momentum. The North American route had a rebound in freight rates as the US economy showed strong performance. There were also geopolitical events in the Middle East, including Israeli attacks on Houthi officials in Yemen, leading to threats of retaliation and an escalation of the conflict between Yemen and Iran. The US State Department made a statement regarding the Palestinian Authority [9][10] 3.3 Data Overview 3.3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - The SCFIS for the European route (basic ports) on September 1, 2025, was 1773.6, down 216.6 (-10.9%) from August 25th. The SCFIS for the US - West route (basic ports) was 1013.9, down 27.48 (-2.6%) from August 25th [12] 3.3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Multiple figures related to the container shipping index (European line) futures market are provided, including the trends of the main and secondary main contracts, shipping - related data such as European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [17][21] 3.3.3 Trading Data of Container Shipping European Line Futures on September 2 | Contract | Previous Settlement Price | Opening Price | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Change | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2510 | 1,293.8 | 1,290.2 | 1,340.7 | 1,364.5 | 46.9 | 3.62 | 77948 | 54157 | 1886 | | EC2512 | 1,621.9 | 1,640.9 | 1,733.5 | 1,755.1 | 111.6 | 6.88 | 28247 | 16673 | 178 | | EC2602 | 1,439.5 | 1,478.0 | 1,550.1 | 1,571.7 | 110.6 | 7.68 | 7124 | 5599 | 753 | | EC2604 | 1,230.5 | 1,220.0 | 1,246.9 | 1,273.6 | 16.4 | 1.33 | 3304 | 7199 | 130 | | EC2606 | 1,407.4 | 1,421.8 | 1,438.9 | 1,472.3 | 31.5 | 2.24 | 715 | 969 | 79 | | EC2608 | 1,599.5 | 1,635.0 | 1,603.1 | 1,648.1 | 3.6 | 0.23 | 153 | 298 | 24 | [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The direction of monetary policy in the second half of 2025 is crucial for the equity market. After a significant increase in A-shares, they may enter a high-level shock pattern [2]. - In the short term, the 10-year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. Gold shows a strong shock trend, and copper prices are rising due to improved interest rate cut expectations [2]. - Many commodities such as steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are facing price - related challenges. Some suggest strategies like long steel - to - ore ratio and shorting at high prices [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After a large increase in A - shares, they may enter a high - level shock pattern. It is recommended to wait for the next direction decision [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 10 - year treasury bond interest rate may fluctuate between 1.75% - 1.8%. It is recommended to use range - bound operations for unilateral strategies and pay attention to the basis convergence strategy of TL contracts for spot - futures strategies [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is strongly fluctuating. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions unilaterally. Buying at - the - money or in - the - money call options can be considered. Silver is affected by news and shows an upward shock [2][3]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Due to the improvement of interest rate cut expectations, the center of copper prices has risen, with the main contract reference range of 78500 - 80500 [2]. - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum oxide has a surplus pressure, and the disk is in a weak shock. Aluminum is in a high - level shock, and attention should be paid to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled. Aluminum alloy has a firm spot price [2]. - **Other Metals**: Nickel has an upward shock trend, and stainless steel has a strong disk due to improved spot trading, with cost support and weak demand in a game [3]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supported by geopolitical and supply risks, oil prices have rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally in the short term and use a positive - spread strategy for arbitrage [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Many chemicals have different market situations. For example, ethylene glycol is expected to have limited downward space, while PVC is in a weakening trend [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn futures are in a rebound adjustment, and palm oil may rise in the short term [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar has a relatively loose overseas supply outlook, and eggs have a weak peak - season performance [2]. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: Glass has a high inventory, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Rubber has a strong fundamental situation and is in a high - level shock [2]. - **New Energy Commodities**: Polysilicon has risen significantly due to news stimulation, and lithium carbonate is in a wait - and - see state [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is following a downward trend, the market is in the process of bottom - building, the basis is tightening, and recent fluctuations are significant. Due to the complexity of the geopolitical conflict and tariff instability, it is recommended to participate with a light position or stay on the sidelines [1][4]. - In the context of international instability, the seasonal logic of each contract remains, with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for arbitrage strategies [4]. - For long - term strategies, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Content 1. Shipping Freight Index - On September 1st, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1773.60 points, down 10.9% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 1013.90 points, down 2.6% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) composite index was 1098.17 points, up 6.02% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 929.56 points, down 14.23% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 1396.85 points, up 44.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) composite index was 1445.06 points, up 29.70 points from the previous period; the SCFI for the European route was 1481 USD/TEU, down 11.21% from the previous period; the SCFI for the US - West route was 1923 USD/FEU, up 16.97% from the previous period [2]. - On August 29th, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) composite index was 1156.32 points, down 1.6% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1685.80 points, down 4.1% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 774.39 points, down 3.1% from the previous period [2]. 2. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's August manufacturing PMI was 50.5 (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8), the preliminary value of the service PMI was 50.7 (estimated 50.8, previous value 51), and the preliminary value of the composite PMI rose to 51.1, higher than July's 50.9 and the expected 50.7 [2]. - The preliminary value of the US's August S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high (estimated 49.5, previous value 49.8); the preliminary value of the service PMI was 55.4 (estimated 54.2, previous value 55.7). The preliminary value of the US's August Markit manufacturing PMI was 53.3, the highest since May 2022 (expected 49.7, previous value 49.8) [3]. - China's July manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [2]. 3. Trade and Geopolitical Situation - The Sino - US tariff extension continues, and the negotiation has not made substantial progress. The tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries, and the current spot price has slightly decreased [4]. - Recently, the Israeli military has expanded its military operations against Hamas, and the Houthi armed forces have launched a missile attack on an Israeli oil tanker in the Red Sea [5]. 4. Futures Market - On September 1st, the main contract 2510 closed at 1291.4, up 1.53%, with a trading volume of 29,200 lots and an open interest of 52,300 lots, a decrease of 989 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily trading limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 has been adjusted to 18%, the margin has been adjusted to 28%, and the daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [4]. 5. Investment Strategies - Short - term strategy: For risk - takers, it is recommended to try a light - position long at around 1300 for the 2510 contract and add more positions at around 1600 for the 2512 contract. Pay attention to the subsequent market trend, avoid holding losing positions, and set stop - losses [4]. - Arbitrage strategy: In the context of international instability, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position due to large fluctuations in each contract [4]. - Long - term strategy: Take profits when the contracts rise and wait for the market to stabilize after a pullback before making further decisions [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views The reports present a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including stock index futures, bond futures, precious metals futures, container shipping futures, and also provide information on trading calendars and potential data releases. They offer detailed data on price changes, spreads, ratios, and related market indicators for different futures products, which can help investors understand market trends and potential investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Directory Stock Index Futures - **Price and Spread Data**: The report provides detailed data on the price differences between futures and spot prices, as well as inter - period spreads for different stock index futures such as IF, IH, IC, and IM. For example, the IF spot - futures spread is - 22.55, down 13.11 from the previous day [1]. - **Historical Percentiles**: It also includes historical 1 - year and full - history percentiles of these spreads, which can help investors assess the relative position of current spreads in historical data. For instance, the historical 1 - year percentile of the IF spot - futures spread is 31.40% [1]. Bond Futures - **IRR and Basis**: Data on the implied repo rate (IRR) and basis for different bond futures (TS, TF, T, TL) are presented. For example, the TS IRR is 1.5138, down 0.0400 from the previous day, and the T basis is 1.3586, up 0.3549 [2]. - **Inter - period and Cross - product Spreads**: Inter - period spreads (e.g., current quarter - next quarter) and cross - product spreads (e.g., TS - TF) are provided, along with their historical percentiles, which can assist investors in analyzing the relative value between different bond futures contracts [2]. Precious Metals Futures - **Price Changes**: The report shows price changes in domestic and foreign precious metals futures, spot prices, and related spreads. For example, the AU2510 contract price increased by 1.97% from August 29th to September 1st, and the COMEX gold price rose by 1.13% [4]. - **Basis and Ratio Analysis**: It also includes basis data (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract) and ratio analysis (e.g., COMEX gold/silver ratio), which can help investors understand the relationship between different precious metals prices [4]. Container Shipping Futures - **Spot and Index Data**: Spot quotes for container shipping from Shanghai to Europe by different shipping companies are provided, along with various container shipping indices such as SCFIS and SCFI. For example, the MAERSK Shanghai - Europe freight rate decreased by 1.74% from September 1st to September 2nd [6]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different container shipping contracts (e.g., EC2602, EC2510) and their basis are presented, which can help investors analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices in the container shipping market [6]. Trading Calendar - **Data and Event Schedule**: The report lists overseas and domestic economic data and events to be released on September 2nd, 2025. Overseas events include euro - zone CPI data and US manufacturing PMI data, while domestic events cover inventory and production data for various commodities such as manganese ore, iron ore, and glass [7].