Core Viewpoint - The strategy of "holding light positions during the holiday" is considered a prudent and historically reasonable approach in the current A-share market context, balancing the risks of market fluctuations before the holiday and the opportunities for participation in the post-holiday spring rally [1][8]. Market Performance Analysis - Over the past decade, the A-share market has shown mixed performance on the first trading day after the Spring Festival, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 6 times and falling 4 times [2][3]. - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a 2.89% increase from February 3 to February 11, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.43% during the same period [2]. - The A-share market is currently in a state of consolidation, with the four major indices showing varied performance on February 11, 2023 [2]. Historical Data Insights - Historical data indicates that the average increase for the Wind All A index in the 10 trading days following the Spring Festival is 3.3%, while the average decline in the 10 trading days before is -1.3% [4]. - The TMT sector has shown a high success rate in the post-holiday period, with a 100% success rate in the first 10 trading days after the Spring Festival [4][9]. Fund Flow and Market Sentiment - Historical trends suggest that market activity tends to contract before the holiday due to uncertainties and cash withdrawal demands, while funds typically flow back into the market post-holiday, indicating a recovery in risk appetite [5]. - Analysts suggest that the current market conditions, including government policies focusing on domestic demand and the potential for improved economic outlook, support a "hold positions" strategy during the holiday [6]. Sector Recommendations - Analysts recommend focusing on sectors that are expected to benefit from policy shifts and economic recovery, such as materials, financials, and technology, particularly in light of the upcoming political and economic events [8]. - The strategy includes maintaining positions in cyclical industries and sectors with improving profitability, such as non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and construction materials [8].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **Focus on Overseas and Domestic Markets**: The conference discusses the volatility in overseas markets and the potential for a positive outlook in the A-share market during the upcoming Chinese New Year [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Overseas Market Volatility**: There has been an increase in volatility in overseas assets due to macroeconomic narratives, industry pressures, and micro momentum influences. Key upcoming events include non-farm payrolls, inflation data, and software earnings reports [1][2]. - **Cautious Outlook for US Stocks**: The US stock market remains cautious, with a focus on how non-farm payrolls and inflation will impact interest rate expectations. There is a recommendation to wait for reduced volatility before investing in technology rebounds and cyclical recovery [3]. - **US Treasury Focus**: The decline in US Treasury yields is attributed to risk-averse sentiment, with upcoming auctions of 10-year and 30-year bonds being closely monitored [4]. - **Gold Market Strategy**: A long-term positive outlook on gold is maintained, with a recommendation to wait for lower volatility before making investment decisions, particularly around the support level of 4500 [5]. Domestic Market Insights - **Policy Focus on Consumption and Investment**: Domestic macroeconomic strategies are centered on promoting consumption and expanding investment, with increased subsidies for the Chinese New Year consumption season [6]. - **Investment in Infrastructure**: The State Council has emphasized investment in infrastructure, urban renewal, public services, and emerging industries. A recommendation is made to hold stocks through the holiday period, anticipating a "red envelope" effect post-holiday [7]. - **A-Share Market Strategy**: The A-share market is expected to see a higher probability of gains in the days leading up to and following the Chinese New Year, with suggested balanced allocations across technology rebounds, cyclical price increases, and low-position recoveries [7]. Market Performance and Sentiment - **Market Review**: The overall A-share index experienced fluctuations, with micro-cap stocks showing strong performance while larger indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 faced declines. Sectors such as food and beverage, personal care, and electricity showed gains, while materials and electronics lagged [8]. - **Trading Activity**: There was a significant decrease in trading activity in the A-share market, with average daily turnover and turnover rates declining. The concentration of trading in sectors like communication and electricity has increased [9]. - **Investor Sentiment**: Domestic panic sentiment has slightly decreased, while overseas sentiment continues to rise. The overall market sentiment is expected to improve marginally, leading to a potential rebound in the A-share market before the Chinese New Year [10][13]. Fund Flows - **Domestic Fund Flows**: Public fund issuance has slowed, with net outflows from ETFs returning to normal. There is a notable shift in allocations towards sectors like securities and real estate, while reducing exposure to materials [11]. - **Foreign Fund Activity**: Northbound trading activity has shown signs of recovery, with a focus on electronic and communication sectors. The overall bull market indicators suggest that after adjustments, risks have been released, and a positive outlook for the A-share market is anticipated [12].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the non-bank financial sector, particularly the insurance and brokerage industries, with a positive outlook on the capital market's stability and growth potential [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Policy Support**: The chairman, Wu Qing, emphasized the commitment to consolidating the positive momentum in the capital market [3]. 2. **Market Stability**: The trading pressure is easing, enhancing the market's inherent stability and preventing significant fluctuations. The previous disruptions faced by brokerage and insurance sectors are being resolved, leading to a more stable market environment [3]. 3. **Market Performance**: - In 2026, the A-share market's daily trading volume reached nearly 30 trillion yuan, a 73% increase compared to 2025. - In January 2026, there were 4.92 million new A-share accounts opened, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 89% and a year-on-year increase of 213% [3]. 4. **Non-Bank Sector Outlook**: The non-bank financial sector is expected to perform well, with insurance showing improved profitability and a new cycle of growth established [3]. 5. **Asset Side**: Stable long-term interest rates and a favorable capital market environment are expected to enhance performance flexibility in the investment sector [4]. 6. **Liability Side**: The "opening red" (a term for the first sales of the year) sets a positive tone for new business throughout the year, with the insurance sector benefiting from the trend of bank deposits moving to insurance products, which are seen as a safe financial alternative [4]. 7. **Brokerage Sector**: - In a slow bull market, there is a significant mismatch between fundamentals and valuations, presenting high cost-performance ratios for investments. - Listed brokerages that have released earnings forecasts show a year-on-year net profit growth of approximately 60%. Leading brokerages are experiencing steady growth, while some smaller firms are showing notable performance elasticity [6]. - The overall price-to-book (PB) ratio for the brokerage industry is only 1.36 times, indicating a significant lag in valuation compared to fundamentals, suggesting a high cost-performance ratio at current levels [6]. Recommendations - Suggested companies to focus on include China Ping An, China Life, New China Life, and Guotai Junan [7]. Risk Factors 1. Significant fluctuations in the equity market could impact net profits. 2. Policy implementation may not meet expectations. 3. The growth rate of new business value (NBV) in the life insurance sector may fall short of expectations. 4. Risks associated with interest rate declines beyond expectations could lead to margin loss [8].

Group 1 - The overall performance of A-shares is expected to continue improving, with a projected net profit growth rate of 26.8% for 2025, indicating a single-digit growth trend [5][23][27] - Approximately 2954 A-share companies have disclosed their 2025 annual performance forecasts, with a disclosure rate of about 54% and a positive forecast rate of 36.9%, which is lower than the mid-year report but higher than the same period last year [12][18][23] - Key sectors expected to see performance improvement include the price increase chain, overseas expansion chain, and TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors, driven by demand from AI and new energy [2][29][30] Group 2 - The major industry performance rankings for 2025 are led by Information Technology, followed by Healthcare, Midstream Manufacturing, Resource Products, Financial Real Estate, and Public Utilities [26][27] - The sectors with the highest expected profit growth include non-bank financials, beauty care, textiles, retail, and non-ferrous metals, with non-bank financials showing a positive forecast rate of 87.5% [18][20] - The price increase chain, which includes industrial metals, energy metals, and chemical products, is expected to benefit from limited capacity expansion and demand driven by AI and new energy, leading to improved performance [29][31] Group 3 - The TMT sector is projected to maintain high growth due to strong demand for AI computing and storage, with specific areas like semiconductors and communication devices expected to see significant profit increases [29][30] - The overseas expansion chain, including automotive parts and medical devices, is anticipated to benefit from stable domestic demand and improving external demand [29][30] - Other sectors such as personal care products, medical services, and seasoning products are also recommended for attention due to their potential for performance improvement [2][29]

节前最后一周，还有约30家公司计划实施分红。考虑到今年春节相较去年晚近20天，今年节前上市公司 分红相对更加积极，行业层面看，银行股分红约占70%。 节前最后一周，还有约30家公司计划实施分红。考虑到今年春节相较去年晚近20天，今年节前上市公司 分红相对更加积极，行业层面看，银行股分红约占70%。 2025年12月以来，国有六大行累计现金分红超2000亿元；招商银行（600036.SH）、兴业银行 （601166.SH）等12家股份制银行合计派发超500亿元。此外，食品饮料板块分红占比约13%，非银金融 约占4.6%，同样位居前列。 据央视财经2月10日报道，数据显示，从股权登记日看，2025年12月1日至2026年2月9日，已有约270家 A股上市公司实施现金分红，合计金额超3700亿元，同比增长约9.6%。 2025年12月以来，国有六大行累计现金分红超2000亿元；招商银行（600036.SH）、兴业银行 （601166.SH）等12家股份制银行合计派发超500亿元。此外，食品饮料板块分红占比约13%，非银金融 约占4.6%，同样位居前列。 据央视财经2月10日报道，数据显示，从股权登记日看，2025年 ...

2月10日，中国人民银行发布2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告。其中提出，积极稳妥防范化解金 融风险。构建覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系和系统性金融风险防范处置机制。拓展丰富中央银行宏观审 慎与金融稳定功能，完善宏观审慎和金融稳定管理工具箱，维护金融市场平稳运行。从宏观、逆周期和 防传染的视角，强化系统性金融风险的监测、评估和预警，不断拓展宏观审慎管理覆盖范围。强化系统 重要性金融机构宏观审慎管理，纵深推进附加监管体系建设。进一步做实系统重要性银行附加监管，指 导入选银行持续完善恢复和处置计划，探索发挥风险管理前瞻指引作用。健全全球系统重要性银行跨境 危机管理小组机制，加强跨境监管合作与信息共享。稳步拓宽附加监管覆盖范围至非银领域。推进重点 地区和重点机构风险处置，强化中小金融机构风险识别和早期纠正。夯实金融稳定机制保障，继续扩大 存款保险基金、金融稳定保障基金积累，探索建立后备融资机制。 ...

Asset Overview - In January, global risk assets experienced increased volatility due to changes in Federal Reserve interest rate expectations and geopolitical conflicts, with US stocks showing a strong upward trend [1] - The domestic market saw a return of funds, with equity assets continuing the upward trend from the end of last year, although regulatory measures led to a slowdown in growth [1] - The Wind All A index rose by 5.83% for the month, with the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices increasing by 12.12% and 8.68% respectively [1] - 80% of the Shenwan first-level industries saw gains, with strong performances in non-ferrous metals (+22.59%) and oil and petrochemicals (+16.31%) [1] - The Hang Seng Index rose by 6.85% in January, with a net inflow of 61.7 billion HKD from southbound funds [1] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a downward adjustment followed by recovery, with most yield rates declining [2] - The 10-year government bond yield fell by 3.6 basis points to 1.81% during January [2] Commodity Market Review - The commodity market was generally bullish in January, with precious metals leading the gains; London gold prices rose by 13.01% to $4,880 per ounce [3] - Brent crude oil prices increased by 14.64% to $69.83 per barrel, while copper prices also saw gains [3] Macroeconomic Performance - The macroeconomic data for December indicated resilience in production, supported by external demand, while internal demand remained weak [5] - Industrial enterprises' profit margins showed positive growth for several months, with a 5.2% year-on-year increase in industrial value added [5] - Exports continued to exceed expectations, with a 6.6% year-on-year increase in December, driven by strong performance in machinery and high-tech products [6] Policy Outlook - Local government meetings have emphasized a "steady progress" approach, with an average GDP growth target of 5.0% for 2026 [10] - The focus of macroeconomic policy has shifted towards enhancing the quality of internal growth rather than merely expanding scale [10] Asset Allocation Analysis - The current economic environment is characterized by "strong supply, weak demand, and price stabilization," indicating an early recovery phase [24] - The asset performance ranking is expected to be bonds, stocks > commodities in the current phase [24]

Group 1 - The core disturbance in January industry data is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival, which significantly affects production, consumption, and export data compared to the previous lunar year [1][5][12] - The production sector shows an overall weakness compared to the same lunar period last year, with notable contraction in construction-related segments, while manufacturing exhibits divergence in performance [1][12] - Consumption patterns reveal significant declines in real estate transaction areas, while overall commodity consumption remains relatively stable, with variations in service consumption [1][13] Group 2 - The impact of the Spring Festival timing extends beyond January, potentially suppressing March production and investment data during the peak season [2][20] - The construction sector's new project initiation is expected to continue its downward trend due to ongoing inventory reduction policies, which will affect the overall recovery pace post-holiday [3][20] - Despite a more proactive fiscal policy and faster issuance of special bonds, the recovery in production and investment post-holiday is anticipated to be limited compared to previous years [3][20] Group 3 - In the energy and resources sector, coal supply constraints due to production cuts and holiday shutdowns have led to price fluctuations, while metal demand shows improvement [4][25] - The real estate sector remains under pressure with low transaction volumes and investment levels, impacting demand for construction materials [4][34] - The financial sector shows high activity in the A-share market, with insurance premium income experiencing a year-on-year decline, while new credit issuance exceeds expectations [4][34] Group 4 - The manufacturing sector continues to show strong growth in machinery and heavy truck sales, benefiting from domestic equipment renewal policies and demand from emerging markets [4][34] - Consumer spending remains stable overall, but demand for durable goods is under pressure due to high base effects and policy rollbacks [4][34] - The TMT sector is experiencing multiple catalysts from both industry and policy perspectives, while the new energy sector sees a decline in domestic sales but strong export growth [4][34]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The report indicates that the cyclical sector is expected to enter an expansion phase, with both cyclical and growth sectors currently in the analysts' expansion zone, resonating with the industry mainline model [3] - The report highlights that the cumulative amount of pending foreign exchange settlement funds since 2022 is approximately 1.13 trillion USD, with a weighted average exchange rate of 7.1 [2] - It is projected that the USD to RMB exchange rate will likely stabilize between 6.8 and 7.1 in 2026, with an overall upward trend but limited potential for sustained unilateral appreciation [2] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report lists the top-performing industries for January, March, and the past year, with notable performances in the oil and petrochemical sector (32.0% increase over the past year) and construction materials (42.7% increase) [1] - Conversely, the report identifies the worst-performing industries, including defense and military (-6.7% in January) and pharmaceuticals (-3.6% in January) [1] Group 3: Company Analysis - Huijia Times - Huijia Times is recognized for its competitive advantages, including a dense store network and deep local market insights, which contribute to significant scale effects and brand barriers in the Xinjiang region [6] - The company is actively upgrading its supermarket and shopping center formats and exploring innovative "low-altitude economy + consumption" scenarios, which are expected to open a second growth curve [6] - Revenue projections for Huijia Times from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 2.422 billion, 2.557 billion, and 2.782 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.5%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively [6]

非银金融行业点评 优化再融资机制安排，扶优扶科导向明确 glmszqdatemark 2026 年 02 月 09 日 推荐 维持评级 [Table_Author] 分析师 刘雨辰 执业证书： S0590522100001 邮箱： liuyuch@glms.com.cn 分析师 耿张逸 执业证书： S0590524100001 相对走势 -20% -3% 13% 30% 2025/2 2025/8 2026/2 非银行金融 沪深300 相关研究 本公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 证券研究报告 1 邮箱： gzhy@glms.com.cn 事件：2026 年 2 月 9 日，沪深北交易所宣布推出优化再融资一揽子措施。 再融资是资本市场投融资功能的重要组成部分。2025 年中央经济工作会议要求， 持续深化资本市场投融资综合改革。再融资是资本市场投融资功能的重要组成部 分，在支持上市公司做优做强、促进资源优化配置等方面发挥着重要作用。此次 沪深北交易所优化再融资一揽子举措具体包括四个方面：一是加大对优质上市公 司支持力度。二是更好适应科技创新企业再融资需求。三是提升再融资灵活性、 便利度。 ...