Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "Davis Double Play" phenomenon observed in the leading A-share pet food companies, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. and Guobao Pet, where both profit growth and valuation (P/E ratio) have increased simultaneously since 2024 [1][14]. Group 1: Profit Growth and Valuation - Profit growth for both companies began to accelerate in Q2 2023, with significant growth observed by Q2 2024, leading to a valuation rebound [2]. - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has a TTM P/E ratio of approximately 45.7, with a market cap of about 178.34 billion [8][11]. - Guobao Pet has a TTM P/E ratio of 63.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 41.41, reflecting a market premium for its high growth performance [10]. Group 2: EPS and P/E Relationship - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. experienced a price increase of approximately 237% over 10 months, while Guobao Pet saw a 160% increase over 9 months, illustrating the appeal of the "Davis Double Play" [11][12]. Group 3: Conditions for Davis Double Play - Not all industries with significant profit increases can achieve simultaneous valuation re-evaluation; key factors include market perceptions of profit sustainability, growth visibility, capital requirements, and industry risks [15]. - The "Davis Double Play" mechanism occurs when both EPS and P/E rise, leading to accelerated stock price increases [16]. Group 4: Industry Comparisons - Industries characterized by cyclical or commodity-driven profits often face valuation declines despite profit increases, as seen in sectors like steel and agriculture [20][22]. - In contrast, growth-oriented industries like pet food benefit from sustained consumer demand and brand penetration, leading to higher valuations [23]. Group 5: Summary Insights - Significant profit increases do not guarantee valuation increases; the market's assessment of profit sustainability and visibility is crucial [30]. - High capital expenditure industries tend to have lower valuations even with profit increases, while low capital requirement sectors can achieve higher valuations [24][25]. - Investor sentiment and thematic investment trends can significantly influence valuation re-evaluations, with sectors like pet food currently attracting sustained interest [27].

证 券 研 究 报 告 宠物行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 成长是主旋律，分化逐渐成为明线 业绩综述：成长是主旋律，分化逐渐成为明线。 以自主品牌为主要驱动力的公司业绩表现优异。 1）抗风险能力：乖宝国内品牌龙头地位稳固，中宠北美产能强化全球 韧性。作为国内自主品牌龙头，乖宝凭借"麦富迪+弗列加特"双核驱动， 已形成超 67%的国内自有品牌收入结构。中宠股份依托全球化产能布 局构建安全垫，公司今年美国工厂产值经 24 年技改后有所提升，且加 拿大二厂将于 25H2、美国二厂将于 26 年年初投产，关税波动对公司 影响预计非常有限。 2）成长动能：乖宝高端化势能释放，中宠品牌进阶开启新阶段。乖宝 宠物高端化成效显著，推动品牌矩阵结构优化，24 年主粮毛利率达 44.70%。中宠股份品牌运营进入质变期，公司国内品牌矩阵规模于 24 年突破十亿大关后，已经实现盈利，预计有望随着规模效应与品牌力 提升，盈利能力逐年增强。 中宠股份于 2024 年品牌步入 10 亿大关且已经实现盈利，25 年品牌收入 增速有望进一步提升，代表着公司踏入乖宝所在的第一梯队行列。一季报 公布以来，强劲的股价体现其成长确定性 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 宠物行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 2）成长动能：乖宝高端化势能释放，中宠品牌进阶开启新阶段。乖宝 宠物高端化成效显著，推动品牌矩阵结构优化，24 年主粮毛利率达 44.70%。中宠股份品牌运营进入质变期，公司国内品牌矩阵规模于 24 年突破十亿大关后，已经实现盈利，预计有望随着规模效应与品牌力 提升，盈利能力逐年增强。 中宠股份于 2024 年品牌步入 10 亿大关且已经实现盈利，25 年品牌收入 增速有望进一步提升，代表着公司踏入乖宝所在的第一梯队行列。一季报 公布以来，强劲的股价体现其成长确定性的提高，在市场从对其业绩释放 的分歧走向弥合的过程中，带动公司估值进入提升加速期。 乖宝宠物一方面在 24 年以近 30%的自有品牌增速领先行业，市占率有望 进一步提升；根据炼丹炉统计的淘系数据，25Q1 其高端品牌弗列加特仍 保持 100%+高增，后续有望受益于对美进口高端品牌加征关税，实现价格 天花板与收入增速的进一步上探。另一方面，公司主粮占比进一步提升至 51.30%，协同提高直营渠道占比优化渠道结构，公司整体 24 年净利率由 23 年的 9.95%提升 2.01 ...

Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine breeding industry is expected to see improved profitability in 2024, with a projected total revenue of 454.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.20% [1] - In Q1 2025, the industry is anticipated to maintain a slight profit status, with a total revenue of 112.02 billion yuan, a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.24% but a year-on-year increase of 18.38% [1] - The average profit for self-bred pigs in 2024 is estimated at 166.86 yuan per head, indicating a significant improvement in industry conditions [1] Group 2: Pet Food Industry - The pet food sector is projected to achieve a total revenue of 11.4 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20% [2] - Notable companies such as Guai Bao Pet, Zhong Chong Co., and Pei Di Co. are expected to see revenue growth rates of 21%, 19%, and 18% respectively in 2024 [2] - In Q1 2025, the total revenue for pet food companies is expected to reach 2.9 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 23% [2] Group 3: Feed Industry - The feed industry is showing signs of recovery, with total revenue for 2024 projected at 155.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3% [3] - Companies like Bang Ji Technology are expected to see significant growth, with a projected revenue increase of 54% in 2024 due to higher sales volumes [3] - In Q1 2025, total revenue for feed companies is anticipated to be 35.3 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12% as sales volumes recover [3]

Core Insights - The domestic pet industry in China has surpassed 300 billion yuan, with major listed companies in the pet food sector showing positive performance driven by the increasing number of pet-owning households and the expansion of the pet economy [2][11] - Several leading companies achieved historic performance milestones in 2024, including Guobao Pet, which reported a record net profit, and Zhongchong Co., which saw both revenue and profit reach new highs since its listing [2][5] - Despite rapid growth, the domestic pet industry is still in its developmental stage compared to international markets, leading companies to implement a "dual circulation" strategy to strengthen brand building and expand domestic market channels [2][11] Company Performance - Five listed pet food companies, Guobao Pet, Zhongchong Co., Tianyuan Pet, Petty Co., and Lusi Co., showed overall revenue growth, but significant disparities in profitability were noted [3][5] - Guobao Pet led the revenue rankings with 5.244 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, while Zhongchong Co. followed with 4.464 billion yuan, up 19.15% [4][5] - Guobao Pet also topped the net profit chart with 642 million yuan, significantly higher than Zhongchong Co.'s 394 million yuan, indicating a narrowing profit gap between the two leading companies [5][10] Profitability Trends - Tianyuan Pet experienced a 54.16% decline in net profit to 46 million yuan, marking it as the only company with a profit decrease among the five [10][11] - Petty Co. reported an extraordinary net profit growth of 1742.81%, but this was largely due to recovering from previous losses, highlighting the impact of prior financial performance on current results [6][10] - Lusi Co. maintained a steady growth trajectory, recording revenue and profit increases, although its growth rates were lower than those of its competitors [8][10] International Market Dependency - The overseas market remains a critical revenue source for most domestic pet companies, with many reporting a decline in the proportion of overseas revenue but still relying heavily on it for profitability [11][12] - Petty Co. had the highest overseas revenue proportion at 82.63%, while Zhongchong Co. also showed significant reliance with 68.33% of its revenue coming from international markets [12][13] - Companies are increasingly aware of the risks associated with international trade and are focusing on building domestic brands and expanding local market presence to mitigate these risks [16][23] Brand Development and Competition - The emphasis on proprietary brands is growing, with Guobao Pet reporting that 67.59% of its revenue came from its own brand products, reflecting a shift towards brand competition in the pet food market [17][20] - Zhongchong Co. has also increased its investment in research and development, indicating a commitment to enhancing its proprietary brand offerings [21][22] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic brands gaining market share and positioning themselves for future growth amid a rapidly expanding market [20][23]

Group 1 - The stock price of Zhongchong Co., Ltd. has reached a historical high, with 12 trading days in the past month where the stock price set new records [2] - As of 10:09, the stock is up 1.25%, priced at 61.60 yuan, with a trading volume of 3.57 million shares and a turnover of 216 million yuan, resulting in a turnover rate of 1.21% [2] - The latest total market capitalization of the stock in A-shares is 18.173 billion yuan, with the same amount for the circulating market capitalization [2] Group 2 - In the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry, the overall increase is 0.42%, with 34 stocks rising, including Andeli, Haida Group, and *ST Xianfeng, which have increases of 10.00%, 5.67%, and 4.86% respectively [2] - The stock has a margin balance of 303 million yuan as of May 13, with a financing balance of 301 million yuan, which has increased by 100 million yuan in the last 10 days, representing a 49.90% growth [2] - In the past 10 days, 16 institutions have rated the stock, with the highest target price set by GF Securities at 61.51 yuan as of April 30 [2] Group 3 - The company's Q1 report shows a total operating income of 1.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.41%, and a net profit of 91.155 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 62.13% [3] - The basic earnings per share are 0.3094 yuan, with a weighted average return on equity of 3.65% [3]

Market Overview - The A-share market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3374.87, up 0.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.13% to 10288.08 [2][9] - The overall market capitalization of the Shanghai Composite Index is 6483.05 billion, with a PE ratio of 11.89 and a PB ratio of 1.23 [3] Industry Dynamics - The price of storage chips has shown a significant increase, with DDR3, DDR4, and DDR5 average prices rising by 10.11%, 4.32%, and 0.00% respectively compared to the previous week [29] - The battery production in April reached 118.2 GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 49.0%, with lithium iron phosphate batteries accounting for 80.0% of the total production [32][34] Company Tracking - Guai Bao Pet (301498.SZ) is set to double its production capacity in Thailand with a new factory expected to start operations in June 2025, following an investment of approximately 200 million RMB [36][37] - Zai Jing Pharmaceutical-U (688266.SH) has received acceptance for its new drug application for JAK inhibitor for severe alopecia, marking a significant step in its product pipeline [38] Financial Performance - Lu Si Co. (832419.BJ) reported a revenue of 778 million RMB for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 11.68%, with a net profit of 78 million RMB, up 14.57% [50][51] - Jie Chang Drive reported a revenue of 3.652 billion RMB in 2024, a 20.37% increase, with a net profit of 282 million RMB, reflecting a 36.91% growth [55][56] Investment Outlook - The pet food industry is expected to see continued growth driven by rising consumer spending and demographic changes, with projected revenues for Guai Bao Pet reaching 921 million RMB in 2025 [53] - Jie Chang Drive is actively expanding into the humanoid robot sector, which is anticipated to be a new growth area, with projected revenues of 4.272 billion RMB in 2025 [58]

Summary of Pet Food Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The pet food industry is experiencing strong growth in 2025, with a positive outlook for the upcoming months, particularly in anticipation of events like the It Expo and the 618 shopping festival [2][5] - Online sales are a significant contributor to revenue, with platforms like Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin showing resilience in new consumer markets [6][5] Company Performance Guobao Pet Food - Q1 2025 revenue increased by approximately 35%, with domestic market growth of 40% and overseas growth of 15% - Profit rose by 38% year-on-year to 204 million yuan, with a high proportion of online sales contributing to data accuracy - Gross margin was slightly below expectations due to declining chicken prices and fixed asset amortization [1][3] Zhongchong Co., Ltd. - Q1 2025 revenue grew by about 25%, with domestic and overseas markets both increasing by 40% and 15% respectively - Profit surged by 62% year-on-year to 91 million yuan, driven by strong orders post-technical upgrades at the US factory - The second factory in Canada is expected to commence production in the second half of the year, further enhancing capacity [1][4] Petty Co., Ltd. - Q1 2025 revenue and profit were slightly below expectations, impacted by overseas export orders - Domestic business performed well, particularly the Jueyan brand, while the Haoshijia brand is in a transitional phase with expected growth in the second half of the year - The new New Zealand brand Smart Balance is anticipated to launch by the end of July [1][4] Market Trends - The pet food industry maintains a favorable outlook, with increased support from e-commerce platforms and a relaxation of China-US tariff policies benefiting domestic brands [5][6] - Product innovation is focused on formulations and scientific nutrition, with limited room for raw material and process upgrades [5] Sales Data - Online GMV growth for the pet industry on Tmall, JD.com, and Douyin was 16% in April 2025, with a cumulative growth of 18% from January to April [6] - Domestic mid-to-high-end brands are outperforming low-end brands, while imported brands are shifting towards cross-border e-commerce due to tariff pressures [6][7] Export Performance - As of March 2025, China's pet food export orders increased by 16.2% year-on-year, with significant growth in exports to Germany, the UK, and Russia [3][13] - The US market saw a modest growth of 0.1%, indicating a shift in focus towards non-US regions [13][14] Raw Material Costs - As of May 9, 2025, chicken prices are at a five-year low, with supply expected to remain ample, keeping cost pressures manageable for pet food companies [15] - Seasonal factors may lead to a slight increase in chicken prices in the second half of the year, but overall cost pressures are expected to remain under control [15] Noteworthy Innovations - Nestlé Purina launched the world's first hypoallergenic cat food, enhancing its product line and showcasing technological innovation in the pet food sector [11] - The It Expo highlighted trends towards professionalization in domestic staple foods, with increased focus on nutritional science and innovative packaging for snacks [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Outperform" for Gambol Pet Group, indicating an expected total return over the next 12-18 months that exceeds the return of its relevant broad market benchmark [20][22]. Core Insights - Gambol Pet Group demonstrated remarkable growth in both revenue and profit, with operating revenue reaching 5.244 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 625 million yuan, up 45.68% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company's own brands are the primary drivers of revenue growth, contributing 3.545 billion yuan, which is 67.59% of total revenue, and growing by 29.14% year-on-year [2][9]. - The company is expanding its operations in Thailand, with a factory expansion project expected to double its capacity by June 2025, alongside the establishment of a research and development center [3][11]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported an operating revenue of 1.573 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 26.41% [2][9]. - The net cash flow from operating activities for 2024 was 719 million yuan, marking a 16.60% year-on-year increase [2][9]. - For Q1 2025, the company continued its positive trend with operating revenue of 1.479 billion yuan, a 34.82% year-on-year increase, and a profit of 204 million yuan, up 37.68% year-on-year [2][9]. Business Strategy - The company is actively mitigating tariff pressures from Sino-US trade frictions by shifting some production to its Thailand factory, which has alleviated some cost burdens [3][10]. - Gambol Pet Group is committed to enhancing its digital transformation efforts to improve operational efficiency and support its premiumization strategy [4][12]. - The company has outlined clear funding usage plans, with nearly 700 million yuan in cash and cash equivalents, and a stable dividend policy that includes two dividends totaling over 200 million yuan in 2024 [5][13]. Research and Development - The company invested over 85 million yuan in R&D in 2024, a 16% increase year-on-year, and has obtained 329 patents, focusing on innovations in fresh meat processing and functional formula reserves [4][12]. - The planned R&D center in Thailand is expected to play a crucial role in the company's global R&D system, enhancing its international competitiveness [3][11].

Group 1: Research Basic Information - The research object is GuaiBao Pet, and the reception time is May 13, 2025. The listed company's reception staff includes the Chief Financial Officer Yuan Xue, the Board Secretary Wang Peng, the Independent Director Zhai Yueling, and the Sponsoring Representatives Chen Fenghua and Sun Xiyun [16] Group 2: Detailed Research Institutions - The reception object is investors who participated in the online performance briefing of GuaiBao Pet in 2024 via online and telephone, and the type is others [19] Group 3: Main Content Company's Operating Performance in 2024 - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.245 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.22%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 625 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.68%. The self-owned brand business revenue was 3.545 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 29.14% [23] Company's Performance in Q1 2025 - In Q1 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 1.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.82%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 204 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.68% [23] Company's Dividend Plan - In 2024, the company conducted two dividends, with a cumulative cash dividend of over 200 million yuan, accounting for 32.02% of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2024. The Second Board Meeting of the Ninth Session has reviewed and approved the proposal to authorize the board to formulate the mid - year dividend matters for 2025 [23] Thailand Factory's Situation - The original factory in Thailand is currently at full capacity. The new factory project in Thailand will cost about 200 million yuan and is expected to be put into production in June this year, doubling the production capacity in Thailand. The company is also planning to build a research and development center in Thailand, and the budget for this part is being calculated [23][25] Company's Internal Optimization - The company will focus on two aspects: accelerating digital transformation to improve operational efficiency and implementing continuous incubation of strategic organizational capabilities and talent echelons and optimizing the incentive mechanism [25]