[Table_Main] 行业研究|有色金属 证券研究报告 有色金属行业双周报 2025 年 05 月 13 日 [Table_Title] 贵金属价格小幅回调，进一步加强战略矿产出口管制 ——有色金属行业双周报 [Table_Summary] 报告要点： 行情回顾：近 2 周申万有色金属指数下跌 0.68% 近 2 周（2025.4.28-2025.5.09），有色金属行业指数下跌 0.68%，沪 深 300 指数上涨 1.64%。从细分领域看，金属新材料（5.78%）、小金 属（4.30%）和能源金属（2.56%）涨幅居前，工业金属和贵金属分别 下跌为-0.91%、-10.42%。 金属价格：贵金属价格小幅下调，铜价受供需格局影响上涨 截至 5 月 9 日，COMEX 黄金收盘价为 3329.1 美元/盎司，近 2 周下 降 0.03%；COMEX 银收盘价为 32.88 美元/盎司，近 2 周下降 0.42%； LME 铜现货结算价为 9486 美元/吨，近 2 周上涨 1.30%；LME 铝现 货结算价为 2401 美元/吨，近 2 周下降 0.46%。LME 锡 31,790 美元 /吨，近两周下跌 ...

业 绩 综 有色金属行业 标配（维持） 有色金属行业 2024 年及 2025Q1 业绩综述： 板块业绩表现分化，2024 年有色金属行业稳中有升 2025 年 5 月 12 日 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 业 研 究 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 分析师：许正堃 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523120001 电话：0769-23320072 邮箱： xuzhengkun@dgzq.com.cn 贵金属、工业金属表现亮眼，2024年有色金属行业逆势增长。2024年申 万有色金属行业141家上市公司合计实现营业收入34705.25亿元，同比增 长5.86%，其中98家公司营收同比正增长；实现归母净利润1384.09亿元， 同比+1.78%，其中86家公司归母净利润同比正增长。申万有色金属行业 2024年全年上涨3.19%，涨跌幅在申万31个行业中排名第17。总体来看， 贵金属、工业金属板块表现亮眼，而能源金属及小金属领域因需求低迷， 产品价格下跌，致使板块业绩下滑 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][5][12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.631 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 658 million yuan, up 87.72% year-on-year [6][8] - The production of core products is expected to continue increasing, benefiting from rising prices of tin and antimony [1][3] - The company is actively advancing major projects to enhance resource reserves and production capacity, with significant mineral resources identified [12][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 738 million yuan from tin ingot business, accounting for 39.43% of total gross profit, while lead-antimony concentrate business contributed 551 million yuan, or 29.46% [2][8] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.469 billion, 5.975 billion, and 6.499 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.1%, 9.3%, and 8.8% respectively [3][4] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.174 billion, 1.285 billion, and 1.400 billion yuan for the same period, with growth rates of 78.5%, 9.4%, and 8.9% respectively [3][4] Production and Sales Outlook - The company plans to produce a total of 85,200 tons of tin, zinc, and lead-antimony metals in 2025, along with 35,400 tons of processed tin and zinc products [1][8] - The production of tin concentrate is expected to reach 6,965 tons in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.15% [8][12] Resource Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has approximately 62.79 million tons of ore resources, with a total of 3.26 million tons of various metal resources including tin, antimony, indium, zinc, lead, silver, and copper [12][8] - The company is accelerating the development of key mining projects to enhance its competitive edge and asset scale [12][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the company [3][5][12] Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 4.631 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 44.68%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 658 million yuan, up 87.72% year-on-year [6][8] - The production of core products is expected to continue increasing, benefiting from rising prices of tin and antimony [1][3] - The company is actively advancing major projects to enhance resource reserves and production capacity, with significant mineral resources identified [12][8] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported a gross profit of 738 million yuan from tin ingot business, accounting for 39.43% of total gross profit, while lead-antimony concentrate business contributed 551 million yuan, or 29.46% [2][8] - The company’s revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.469 billion, 5.975 billion, and 6.499 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.174 billion, 1.285 billion, and 1.400 billion yuan [3][4][14] - The company’s cash flow from operating activities was 1.237 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 35.17% [6][9] Production and Sales Outlook - The company plans to produce a total of 85,200 tons of tin, zinc, and lead-antimony metals in 2025, along with 35,400 tons of processed tin and zinc products [1][8] - The production of tin concentrate in 2024 was 6,965 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.15%, while zinc concentrate production reached 54,100 tons, up 17.87% [8][12] Resource Development - As of the end of 2024, the company has approximately 62.79 million tons of ore resources, with a total of 3.26 million tons of various metal resources including tin, antimony, indium, zinc, lead, silver, and copper [12][8] - The company is accelerating the development of key mining projects to enhance its competitive position [12][8]

Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two industry categories are highlighted: "supply clearance" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion[2] - Industries exhibiting "supply clearance" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services[2] - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports[2] Export Chain Analysis - Key export chain industries with high overseas revenue proportions include other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery[3] - Industries with high revenue exposure to the U.S. face uncertainty until trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products and textiles if tariffs ease[3] High Dividend Yield Insights - High dividend yield sectors identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods[4] - Notable increases in dividend yields for transportation and consumer sectors compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods[4] Market Strategy and Outlook - The A-share market shows resilience, with ETF net outflows indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet maintaining a steady upward trend with transaction volumes above 1 trillion[5] - The market is at a turning point, with key factors to monitor including U.S.-China trade talks and domestic economic indicators[5] - A broad fluctuation is expected in the A-share market, with strong support likely at lower levels, suggesting potential for increased positions if support levels are tested[5] Investment Recommendations - Balanced asset allocation is advised to navigate uncertainties, with a focus on technology sectors potentially regaining momentum[6] - Transitioning trading strategies from exceeding expectations to focusing on high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, plastics, and animal health[6] - Defensive assets like banks, insurance, and utilities remain viable as core holdings, with attention to sectors with rising dividend yields[6]

Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Two categories of industries are highlighted: "supply clearing" industries with significant inventory and capacity reduction, and "strong expansion" industries with high revenue growth and capacity expansion [2][15]. - Industries exhibiting "supply clearing" characteristics include plastics, general equipment, gaming, agriculture, small metals, optical electronics, and communication services [2][15]. - Industries showing "strong expansion" characteristics include other electronics, leisure food, motorcycles, precious metals, and shipping ports [2][17]. Group 2: Export Chain Analysis - Industries with high overseas revenue ratios are expected to maintain independent growth despite domestic demand pressures, including other home appliances, consumer electronics, shipping ports, small appliances, and engineering machinery [3][20]. - The report notes that industries with high revenue from the U.S. face uncertainties until U.S.-China trade relations improve, with potential valuation recovery for sectors like entertainment products, textile manufacturing, and lighting equipment if tariff issues ease [3][23]. Group 3: High Dividend Yield Industries - High dividend yield industries identified include coal mining, oil and gas extraction, refining and trading, shipping ports, and white goods [4][26]. - Notably, the dividend yield for transportation and consumer sectors has significantly increased compared to the previous year, particularly in shipping ports, logistics, and white goods [4][26]. Group 4: Market Performance and Strategy - The A-share market shows resilience, with a net outflow of ETFs indicating reduced support from protective funds, yet the market remains stable with transaction volumes exceeding 1 trillion [5][29]. - The report suggests a cautious approach to position management due to ongoing uncertainties, with a focus on potential support levels for the index [5][29]. - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended to navigate uncertainties, with a renewed interest in technology sectors, particularly in AI, and a shift towards high-growth industries such as feed, motorcycles, and plastics [5][30].

小金属：钨资源战略地位凸显，矿端偏强运行 钨作为国家战略性资源，其开采利用受国家指标控制、供应受限，随着全球地缘政治博弈加深，钨资源 的战略性地位将逐步凸显，矿端或维持强势运行。虽然短期需求端释放增量有限，但随着国内制造业的 复苏，以及出口端的修复，钨的供需错配或将延续，钨价或稳定增长。同时产业持续调结构升级，向高 端化迈进，钨下游刀具等领域具有较大国产化替代空间，有望推动行业内相关生产企业利润增长。 风险提示：下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 5月8日，美联储宣布维持联邦基金利率目标区间在4.25%至4.50%之间，符合市场预期，美联储已连续 三次维持利率不变。FOMC政策声明中增加了"通胀和失业率上升的风险增加"的描述，据芝商所数据， 市场对美联储重启降息的时点延后至7月。同时，随着中美经贸会谈开启，英美贸易协定落地，市场情 绪有所好转，美元指数和美股有所反弹，黄金价格承压。展望后市，特朗普政策的不确定性、全球贸易 格局和货币体系可能面临重塑、去美元化进程不断推进、央行对黄金的需求保持在高位等长期利多金价 因素依旧存在，且美联储仍有充足的降息空间，对金价形成有力支撑。受益标的： ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the small metals and new materials sector is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report highlights that supply-side factors are driving up prices for rare earths and tungsten, with a focus on tariff easing and opportunities in military new materials [4] - The report emphasizes the potential for price increases in rare earths due to export restrictions and the expected recovery of new materials companies as tariff concerns ease [7][11] - The military new materials sector is expected to see increased production in the second quarter due to heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly following recent conflicts between India and Pakistan [12] Summary by Sections Rare Earths - Recent price increases for rare earths include a 4.19% rise in praseodymium-neodymium oxide to 423,000 CNY/ton, a 2.17% increase in dysprosium oxide to 1,645,000 CNY/ton, and a 4.51% rise in terbium oxide to 7,075,000 CNY/ton [6][15] - The report notes that the export restrictions imposed by China on seven types of medium and heavy rare earth products have led to significant price increases in overseas markets, with dysprosium prices in Europe rising from 250-310 USD/kg to 700-1000 USD/kg (an increase of 204%) [6][10] - Recommendations for investment include companies such as Guangxi Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Northern Rare Earth [6] Molybdenum - Molybdenum prices have seen a 3.57% increase in molybdenum concentrate to 3,485 CNY/ton and a 2.26% rise in molybdenum iron (Mo60) to 226,000 CNY/ton [22] - The report indicates strong support from raw material costs and active bidding from steel mills, although the sustainability of demand needs further observation [22] Tungsten - Tungsten prices have increased recently, with black tungsten concentrate rising 3.40% to 152,000 CNY/ton and ammonium paratungstate increasing 3.24% to 223,000 CNY/ton [25] - The report notes a slight contraction in supply and stable demand, with new applications in photovoltaic cutting and robotics potentially expanding demand [25] Tin - Tin prices have shown weakness, with SHFE tin down 1.26% to 259,500 CNY/ton and LME tin down 1.11% to 31,700 USD/ton [36] - Supply issues due to low operating rates in refining enterprises and weak demand from the electronics sector are contributing to price fluctuations [36] Antimony - Antimony prices have remained stable, with antimony ingot prices down 1.05% to 235,000 CNY/ton and antimony concentrate prices stable at 202,500 CNY/ton [45] - The report highlights marginal improvements in supply but weak demand in certain sectors [45] New Materials - Expectations for tariff easing are rising, with a focus on new materials companies that have high export exposure, which may see recovery as tariff concerns diminish [11] - The military new materials sector is expected to benefit from increased production due to geopolitical tensions, with companies like Western Superconducting and Tunan Co. being highlighted for potential investment [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - Precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to perform well in the long term despite recent price fluctuations. The report notes a slight increase of 0.33% in domestic spot gold prices and highlights improving international trade conditions, which may influence gold's safe-haven appeal [5]. - Industrial metal prices have mostly declined, with specific changes noted in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices. However, demand from the renewable energy sector is expected to offset declines in traditional industries [5]. - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle and domestic monetary policies strengthen [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Domestic gold prices have shown a slight increase, while international trade issues are showing signs of improvement [5]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - Prices for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel have varied, with copper prices slightly increasing by 0.3% [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth elements like praseodymium-neodymium oxide have increased, indicating a potential rise in demand due to manufacturing recovery [30]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate and hydroxide prices have decreased, with a focus on future demand growth for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The report includes various tables summarizing price changes for different metals, indicating overall market trends [36]. 3. Important Events Review - Notable events include the resumption of production at a major nickel plant in Indonesia and the discovery of a significant copper deposit by Lundin Mining in South America [41][42].

星矿数据显示，今日早盘主力资金净流入纺服行业、 银行、 小金属等板块，净流出 电子、 计算机、 机械设备等板块，其中电子板块净流出超69亿元。个股方面， 科蓝软件大涨，主力资金净买入5.00亿元 位居首位， 比亚迪、 万向钱潮、 润和软件获主力资金净流入居前； 中航成飞遭净卖出超10亿元， 中 芯国际、 中超控股、 常山北明主力资金净流出额居前。 ...