Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China trade talks have led to the cancellation of 91% of tariffs, with a temporary suspension of 24% reciprocal tariffs for 90 days, positively impacting the global trade environment and market expectations for oil prices [1] Industry Summary - The polyester industry chain shows strong performance across various products, with significant price increases observed: - PX509 contract closed at 6744 CNY/ton, up 272 CNY/ton (4.2%) - TA509 contract at 4774 CNY/ton, up 192 CNY/ton (4.19%) - EG2509 contract at 4460 CNY/ton, up 242 CNY/ton (5.74%) - PF507 contract at 6550 CNY/ton, up 286 CNY/ton (4.57%) - PR507 contract at 6082 CNY/ton, up 260 CNY/ton (4.47%) [1][1][1] - Global trade expectations are improving, with anticipation that Iran will release more oil, leading to fluctuations in oil prices [1] - The operating rates for PX have decreased due to some PX facilities reducing output, while PTA operating rates have slightly increased, resulting in a small rise in weekly production [1] - The polyester production rates have seen a slight increase due to higher operating rates in bottle flakes and short fibers, while short fiber inventory remains stable and long fiber inventory has generally decreased, indicating improved downstream demand [1][1] - The overall supply-demand fundamentals in the polyester industry chain are favorable, with a need to monitor the impact of the restart of PX and PTA maintenance facilities on the market [1] - Despite fluctuations in oil prices, the polyester industry chain's product prices continue to outperform crude oil, with production profits for PX and PTA showing significant improvement [1][1]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/5/16 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | | 指标 | 2025/5/14 | 2025/5/15 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) PTA-SC(元/陣) | 486. 6 1337.8 | 463. 2 1431.9 | -23. 40 94. 05 | 成交情况: PTA:PTA行情窄幅下跌,主因是原油下跌,大宗化工 品市场未能延续普涨行情,且市场也需要时间消化近 | | | | | | 0. 0471 | 日PTA的涨幅。PTA主力供应商出售5月货源,现货基差 走弱。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3783 | 1. 4254 | | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 870 | 854 | -16 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 2 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report [1] - Report Date: May 16, 2025 - Research Analysts: Lu Pinxian, Huang Kehan Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The energy and chemical sector includes energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolios with a focus on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2507) is 462, with a decrease of 10 and a decline rate of 2.14% [3]. 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 1.22, and the open interest PCR is 0.77 [4]. 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are analyzed. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 560, and the support level is 400 [5]. 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 31.63%, and the weighted implied volatility is 34.36% [6]. 5. Strategy and Recommendations for Different Option Varieties Energy - Related Options - **Crude Oil**: The fundamental situation involves OPEC + increasing supply and the US maintaining production cuts. The market shows a pattern of short - term recovery followed by a decline. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates the release of short - selling power. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **LPG**: The fundamental situation is that the cost of imported gas from the Middle East supports domestic prices. The market is in a weak, bearish state. Implied volatility fluctuates around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. Alcohol - Related Options - **Methanol**: The fundamental situation is that port and enterprise inventories have increased, and downstream demand has weakened. The market shows a recent upward trend. Implied volatility is declining and fluctuating around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates support. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a bullish call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamental situation is that port inventories are expected to decrease. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strong, oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a short - volatility strategy for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. Polyolefin - Related Options - **Polypropylene**: The fundamental situation is that the inventories of production enterprises and traders have increased. The market shows a recent upward trend. Implied volatility fluctuates above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 1. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. Rubber - Related Options - **Rubber**: The fundamental situation is that the import volume has increased, and the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises has decreased. The market shows a short - term bullish trend. Implied volatility fluctuates around the average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.6. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a bullish call + put option combination for volatility [11]. Polyester - Related Options - **PTA**: The fundamental situation is that polyester load has increased, and PTA inventory is decreasing. The market shows a bullish trend. Implied volatility is at a relatively high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strengthening market. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, and a bullish call + put option combination for volatility [12]. Other Options - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamental situation is that factory inventories and the start - up rate have changed. The market is in a weak, oscillating state. Implied volatility is decreasing and below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include constructing a bearish wide - straddle option combination for volatility, and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash**: The fundamental situation is that domestic production has decreased. The market shows a recent bearish trend. Implied volatility is rising but below the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak, oscillating market. Strategies include constructing a bearish call spread for direction, a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Urea**: The fundamental situation is that production capacity utilization has rebounded, and inventories have changed. The market shows a recent bullish trend. Implied volatility has decreased and is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates strong bullish power. Strategies include constructing a bullish call spread for direction, a bullish call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View PVC and Caustic Soda - In the short term, the supply pressure of caustic soda is limited during the concentrated maintenance period, and the demand from the alumina sector has improved. Supported by fundamental supply - demand and positive macro - drivers, the spot price of caustic soda tends to be strong. However, attention should be paid to the price acceptance of non - aluminum sectors and the valuation of caustic soda. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7]. - For PVC, in the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited due to concentrated maintenance and limited inventory pressure. There is an expectation of rush - exporting PVC products. But in the medium and long term, there is an obvious over - supply pressure. It is recommended to wait and see, with a short - term rebound and a medium - term short - selling approach [7]. Polyester Industry Chain - For PX, in the short term, the supply is tight and the demand is supported, but the upward pressure on crude oil and the possible production cut of downstream products may put pressure on PX. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the PX09 - 1 positive spread, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For PTA, the short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of weakening. It is recommended to treat it as a high - level shock, exit the TA09 - 1 positive spread at a high level, and pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity [12]. - For ethylene glycol, it is expected to reduce inventory in May, and it is recommended to take profit on the short - put option EG2509 - P - 4250 seller and conduct a long spread on EG9 - 1 [12]. - For short - fiber, the short - term inventory pressure is not large, but the processing fee is compressed. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for single - side trading and expand the processing fee at a low level [12]. - For bottle - chips, the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price follows the raw materials. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of expanding the processing fee at the lower edge of the 350 - 550 yuan/ton range [12]. Styrene The short - term rebound of styrene is supported by low inventory and improved demand expectations. However, the high - production and high - inventory problems of 3S products and the poor supply - demand of pure benzene may limit the rebound height. It is recommended to pay attention to the resistance above 7800 - 7900 in the near - month [18]. Methanol The inland valuation of methanol has a downward pressure, the port starts the inventory - accumulation period, and the 09 contract is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell the MA09 contract at a high level [22]. Crude Oil The overnight oil price continued to decline due to the progress of the US - Iran nuclear agreement negotiation. The short - term market will be mainly in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and capture volatility - amplification opportunities in the option market [26]. PE and PP The spot sentiment of PE and PP has weakened. The supply pressure will gradually decrease in May, but the cost - end rebound compresses the profit. Attention should be paid to the restocking and exporting of plastic products [29]. Urea The core logic of the rise in urea futures is the boost of the clear export policy. The short - term supply - demand is expected to be tight, but the actual increase depends on the policy implementation and export orders. The short - term disk will be in a wide - range consolidation [90]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC and Caustic Soda Spot and Futures - On May 15, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda and 50% liquid caustic soda were 2593.8 yuan/ton and 2760.0 yuan/ton respectively. The prices of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC and ethylene - based PVC were 4880.0 yuan/ton and 5100.0 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - The price differences and changes of SH and V series futures contracts were also provided [2]. Overseas Quotes and Export Profits - For caustic soda, the FOB price at East China ports on May 8 was 395.0 dollars/ton, with a decrease of 5.0 dollars/ton compared to May 1 [3]. - For PVC, the CFR prices in Southeast Asia and India remained unchanged from May 1 to May 8. The FOB price of calcium - carbide - based PVC at Tianjin Port decreased by 10.0 dollars/ton [4]. Supply - The caustic soda industry's operating rate on May 9 was 87.5%, and the PVC's total operating rate was 77.9%, both showing an increase [5]. Demand - The operating rates of the alumina, viscose staple fiber, and printing and dyeing industries were provided, with some showing an increase [6]. - The operating rates of PVC downstream products and the pre - sales volume were also provided, with some showing an increase and the pre - sales volume showing a decrease [7]. Inventory - The inventory data of liquid caustic soda and PVC were provided, with some showing an increase and some showing a decrease [7]. Polyester Industry Chain Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows - The price and cash - flow data of various polyester products such as POY, FDY, DTY, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [12]. PX - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of CFR China PX, PX spot, and futures, and the price differences such as PX - crude oil, PX - naphtha, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. PTA - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of PTA spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as PTA basis, PTA processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. MEG - related Prices and Spreads - The price data of MEG spot and futures, and the price - difference data such as MEG basis, MEG processing fee, etc., and their changes were provided [12]. Industry Chain Operating Rates - The operating rates of the Asian PX, Chinese PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester industries and their changes were provided [12]. Styrene Upstream - The price data of Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha, CFR Northeast Asia ethylene, and other upstream products and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [15]. Spot and Futures - The price data of styrene spot and futures and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [16]. Overseas Quotes and Import Profits - The price data of styrene's overseas quotes and import profits and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [17]. Industry Chain Operating Rates and Profits - The operating rates and profit data of domestic pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Inventory - The inventory data of pure benzene, styrene, PS, EPS, ABS, etc., and their changes were provided [18]. Methanol Price and Spreads - The price data of methanol futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the regional price differences, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [22]. Inventory - The inventory data of methanol enterprises, ports, and the weekly arrival volume, and their changes were provided [22]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of methanol upstream enterprises, downstream MTO devices, formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, etc., and their changes were provided [22]. Crude Oil Crude Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of Brent, WTI, SC crude oils, and the price differences such as Brent - WTI, SC - Brent, etc., and their changes on May 16 compared to May 15 were provided [26]. Refined Oil Prices and Spreads - The price data of NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, ICE Gasoil, and the price differences between contracts, and their changes were provided [26]. Refined Oil Crack Spreads - The crack - spread data of various refined oils in different regions and their changes were provided [26]. PE and PP Price and Spreads - The price data of PE and PP futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the basis, and the prices of various PE and PP products, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [29]. Up - and Down - stream Operating Rates - The operating rates of PE and PP devices, downstream weighted operating rates, and their changes were provided [29]. Inventory - The inventory data of PE and PP enterprises, social inventories, and their changes were provided [29]. Urea Futures - The price data of urea futures contracts, the price differences between contracts, the main - contract positions, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [82][83][84]. Upstream Raw Materials - The price data of upstream raw materials such as anthracite, steam coal, synthetic ammonia, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [85]. Spot Market - The spot - market price data of urea in different regions, the cross - regional price differences, the basis, and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [86][87]. Downstream Products - The price data of downstream products such as melamine, compound fertilizer, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [88]. Fertilizer Market - The price data of various fertilizers such as ammonium sulfate, sulfur, potassium chloride, etc., and their changes from May 14 to May 15 were provided [89]. Supply and Demand - The daily and weekly production, inventory, and order - day data of urea, and their changes were provided [90].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - PTA market: Low PX operation rate benefits the market, PTA inventory decreases, spot basis strengthens, and downstream polyester new capacity starts production with good rigid demand, leading to a rising PTA market. The supply - side contraction of PTA and PX has resulted in a positive spread in the market, and the market rumor suggests that mainstream factories may cancel warehouse receipts to fulfill contract supplies. Polyester factories' inventory reduction is close to two weeks, with downstream replenishment, and terminal export demand is expected to strengthen [2]. - MEG market: The spot price of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang has increased, and the futures price has trended strongly. Although the port inventory has changed little and the load of coal - based ethylene glycol plants has recovered, putting pressure on the market, coal prices have started to rise, and the profits of coal - based plants have been compressed. With the upcoming maintenance of mainstream ethylene glycol plants, it will enter the inventory reduction stage [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price and Index Changes - INE crude oil price rose from 479.5 yuan/barrel on May 13th, 2025 to 486.6 yuan/barrel on May 14th, 2025, an increase of 7.1 yuan/barrel [2]. - PTA - SC spread rose from 1265.4 yuan/ton to 1337.8 yuan/ton, an increase of 72.4 yuan/ton; PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3632 to 1.3783, an increase of 0.0152 [2]. - CFR China PX price rose from 843 to 870, an increase of 27; PX - naphtha spread increased from 274 to 294, an increase of 20 [2]. - PTA main futures price rose from 4750 yuan/ton to 4874 yuan/ton, an increase of 124 yuan/ton; PTA spot price rose from 4935 yuan/ton to 5095 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA spot processing fee increased from 358.3 yuan/ton to 398.9 yuan/ton, an increase of 40.6 yuan/ton; PTA futures processing fee decreased from 168.3 yuan/ton to 147.9 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.4 yuan/ton [2]. - PTA main contract basis increased from 195 to 245, an increase of 50; PTA warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 81164 [2]. - MEG main futures price rose from 4349 yuan/ton to 4506 yuan/ton, an increase of 157 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread increased from - 99.16 yuan/ton to - 78.35 yuan/ton, an increase of 20.8 yuan/ton [2]. - MEG domestic price rose from 4475 yuan/ton to 4635 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton; MEG main contract basis decreased from 125 to 115, a decrease of 10 [2]. 3.2 Industry Chain Operation - PX operation rate decreased from 76.09% to 73.32%, a decrease of 2.77%; PTA operation rate remained unchanged at 74.41%; MEG operation rate decreased from 57.39% to 53.02%, a decrease of 4.37%; polyester load increased from 89.96% to 91.34%, an increase of 1.38% [2]. 3.3 Product Performance in the Polyester Industry - Polyester filament: POY150D/48F price rose from 6840 yuan/ton to 7000 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton; POY cash flow decreased from - 129 to - 159, a decrease of 30. FDY150D/96F price rose from 6980 yuan/ton to 7260 yuan/ton, an increase of 280 yuan/ton; FDY cash flow increased from - 489 to - 399, an increase of 90. DTY150D/48F price rose from 8045 yuan/ton to 8175 yuan/ton, an increase of 130 yuan/ton; DTY cash flow decreased from - 124 to - 184, a decrease of 60. Filament sales volume decreased from 118% to 52%, a decrease of 66% [2]. - Polyester staple fiber: 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber price rose from 6650 yuan/ton to 6815 yuan/ton, an increase of 165 yuan/ton; staple fiber cash flow decreased from 31 to 6, a decrease of 25. Staple fiber sales volume decreased from 95% to 60%, a decrease of 35% [2]. - Polyester chips: Semi - bright chip price rose from 5855 yuan/ton to 6050 yuan/ton, an increase of 195 yuan/ton; chip cash flow increased from - 214 to - 209, an increase of 5. Chip sales volume decreased from 103% to 93%, a decrease of 10% [2]. 3.4 Device Maintenance - Due to the recent rapid increase in raw material prices, three major polyester filament manufacturers have decided to immediately reduce production of loss - making products and plan further production cuts to be implemented in the short term [2].

Core Viewpoint - Hengyi Petrochemical reported a total operating revenue of 125.463 billion yuan and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 234 million yuan for 2024, with Q1 2025 showing an operating revenue of 27.168 billion yuan and a net profit of 51.4948 million yuan [1] Group 1: Business Segments - The company's main business segments include refining, PTA, and polyester [1] - The refining segment benefits from the Brunei refining project, which targets Southeast Asia and Australia, where there is a significant demand for refined oil products [1][2] - Southeast Asia is the largest net importer of refined oil globally, with a GDP growth rate significantly higher than the global average, indicating strong potential for oil demand growth [1][2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The supply side of the Southeast Asian refined oil market faces a significant gap, with over 30 million tons of refining capacity exiting the market from 2020 to 2023 due to public health events and energy transition [2] - By 2026, the supply-demand gap for refined oil in Southeast Asia is expected to expand to 68 million tons, driven by the closure of refineries and declining production [2][3] Group 3: Strategic Opportunities - The limited growth in refining capacity due to aging facilities and stringent global environmental policies presents strategic opportunities for companies with technological advantages [3] - Hengyi Petrochemical is focusing on major strategic projects, including the Guangxi Qinzhou project and the second phase of the Brunei refining project, which are expected to enhance profitability as the petrochemical industry recovers [3][4] Group 4: Project Developments - The Qinzhou project is a key integrated production base for the company, expected to be operational by 2025, which will strengthen the company's performance and enhance its integrated supply chain advantages [4] - The project aims to leverage existing customer networks and cost reductions to increase market share [4]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Sanfangxiang Polymer Co., Ltd. is preparing for its 2024 Annual General Meeting, emphasizing the importance of shareholder rights and orderly conduct during the meeting [1][2][3]. Meeting Procedures - Shareholders must register according to the specified methods in the meeting notice, and incomplete documentation will result in denial of entry [1]. - The meeting will combine on-site and online voting, with each share granting one vote, and improper ballots will be considered as abstentions [2]. - The meeting will be presided over by the Chairman, with a structured agenda including sign-in, voting on proposals, and reading of legal opinions [3]. Company Performance Overview - In 2024, the company faced challenges such as increased production capacity, intense market competition, and trade frictions, but managed to optimize internal management and enhance customer service [4]. - The company reported a polyester chip production of 3.0086 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.65%, and exports of 1.5072 million tons, up 12.43% [5]. Financial Highlights - The company’s total revenue for 2024 was approximately RMB 24.14 billion, a 2.80% increase from the previous year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was a loss of approximately RMB 487.47 million [19][23]. - The company’s total assets reached approximately RMB 18.60 billion, reflecting a 15.60% increase compared to the previous year [21]. Future Development Strategy - The company plans to enhance its competitive edge by focusing on product development, production efficiency, and customer service, while accelerating project construction to reduce production costs [8][9]. - Key projects include the expansion of PTA production capacity and the development of green multifunctional bottle chip projects, which are expected to strengthen market position [9]. Governance and Compliance - The company has held 12 board meetings in 2024, addressing various proposals and ensuring compliance with legal and regulatory requirements [6][8]. - The supervisory board conducted oversight of the company's operations and confirmed adherence to laws and regulations, ensuring protection of shareholder interests [12][14].

能源化工期权 2025-05-15 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （%） | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 原油 | SC2507 | 478 | 0 ...

IL期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 Z0020680 苗扬 期货收盘价 | 品种 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约 | 1814 | 1798 | 16 | 0.89% | 元/吨 | | 05合约 | 1900 | 1930 | -30 | -1.55% | | | 09合约 | 1886 | 1897 | =11 | -0.58% | | | 甲醇主力合约 Hm = A / L / A 3 / | 2365 | 2291 | 74 | 3.23% | | 期货合约价差 | 价差 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01合约-05合约 | -86 | -132 | 46 | 34.85% | | | 05合约-09合约 | 14 | 33 | -19 | -57.58% | | | 09合约-01合约 | 72 | дд | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "oscillating" [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices declined slightly. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week. Saudi Arabia's production increased in April, but the decline in production from some OPEC countries offset the growth. Russia is considering extending gasoline export restrictions. Oil prices are under pressure and oscillating after a continuous rebound [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, fuel oil futures rose. In May, the volume of low - sulfur arbitrage cargo shipped from the European market to Singapore is expected to decrease, while the inventory in Singapore is increasing due to more low - sulfur fuel oil blending components from the Middle East and South America. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be strongly supported by the increase in summer power generation demand. The absolute prices of FU and LU may remain stable, and it is advisable to consider a strategy of narrowing the LU - FU spread later [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, asphalt futures rose. This week, the total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt increased, the social inventory decreased, and the total operating rate of asphalt plants increased. Supply is expected to continue to increase, and market demand will increase slightly in the north but be affected by rainfall in the south. The absolute price of BU may remain stable, but the upside space is limited [3]. - **Polyester**: On Wednesday, polyester futures rose. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation. Crude oil prices strengthened, PTA device maintenance continued, and downstream inventory and operation rates were high. PTA futures may oscillate strongly, and the supply of ethylene glycol tightened in the short term, leading to a stronger price [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, rubber futures rose. As of May 11, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory increased slightly. The shortage of butadiene and the strengthening of crude oil prices led to an obvious rebound in butadiene rubber prices. The performance of natural rubber was relatively weak, and the Sino - US joint statement had limited impact on rubber prices [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, methanol prices showed certain fluctuations. The domestic methanol supply is at a high level due to good producer profits, while the Iranian device load has declined, and the arrival volume is lower than expected. The MTO device maintenance has been implemented, and the operation of traditional downstream industries is relatively stable. Methanol prices will recover, but there is still pressure on the upside [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, polyolefin prices showed certain trends. Refinery maintenance is increasing, and supply pressure is being relieved. The Sino - US trade negotiation has made important progress, and there may be an intention to rush for exports in the short term, so polyolefin prices will recover [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC market prices increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable. Although the Sino - US trade negotiation has made significant progress, the upside space for PVC is expected to be limited [8] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI June contract closed down $0.52 to $63.15 per barrel, a decline of 0.82%. Brent July contract closed down $0.54 to $66.09 per barrel, a decline of 0.81%. SC2506 closed at 484.6 yuan per barrel, down 2.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.59%. US crude oil inventories increased by 3.5 million barrels to 441.8 million barrels in the week ending May 9 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main contract of fuel oil on the SHFE, FU2507, rose 1.12% to 3057 yuan per ton; the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil, LU2507, rose 3.08% to 3647 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur arbitrage cargo volume from Europe to Singapore is expected to decrease in May, but the inventory in Singapore is increasing [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main contract of asphalt on the SHFE, BU2506, rose 1.24% to 3521 yuan per ton. This week, the total inventory level of domestic refinery asphalt was 30.50%, up 1.12% from last week; the social inventory rate was 35.32%, down 0.41% from last week; the total operating rate of domestic asphalt plants was 35.73%, up 3.62% from last week [3]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4874 yuan per ton, up 2.61%; EG2509 closed at 4506 yuan per ton, up 3.61%. Some MEG devices were under maintenance, and some polyester devices were restarted or newly put into operation [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main contract of natural rubber, RU2509, rose 240 yuan per ton to 15235 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber, NR, rose 180 yuan per ton to 13035 yuan per ton; the main contract of butadiene rubber, BR, rose 175 yuan per ton to 12380 yuan per ton [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2505 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 2137.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was between 258 - 262 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was between 337 - 342 US dollars per ton [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 7200 - 7350 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 87.11 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 1096.2 yuan per ton [8]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, the market price of PVC in East China, North China, and South China increased. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, and the demand is relatively stable [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and other data of various energy and chemical products on May 14 and May 13, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - OPEC reported that the crude oil production of all OPEC + member countries decreased by 106,000 barrels per day in April compared with March. Although eight OPEC + oil - producing countries vowed to start relaxing production cuts, the actual increase in supply was less than expected [11]. - The EIA data showed that as of the week ending May 9, the inventory of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 528,000 barrels to 399.7 million barrels, reaching the highest level since the week ending October 28, 2022 [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [29][34][35] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [45][47][50] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report shows the spread and ratio charts between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [61][65][66] - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report presents the production profit charts of some energy and chemical products, such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow and PP production profit [69]