Group 1 - The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a recovery in market risk appetite, with the Israeli-Iranian military conflict showing signs of de-escalation and a ceasefire agreement in place [1] - The overall global capital markets have shown a rebound, with the domestic market's risk appetite significantly improving, as evidenced by the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year [1] - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut have strengthened, contributing to the positive market momentum [1] Group 2 - Last week, both stock exchanges experienced a volatile rebound, with average daily trading volume significantly increasing, surpassing 1.4 trillion yuan, indicating heightened market activity [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous resistance levels from May and June, achieving a new yearly high, although it faced resistance near last year's fourth-quarter high [1] - Market hotspots last week were primarily concentrated in the military, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and non-bank financial sectors, with small-cap and technology stocks showing greater gains [1]

Group 1 - Military stocks continue to be active, with notable increases in share prices [1] - Chengxi Aviation and Hengyu Xintong both saw their stock prices rise over 10% [1] - Other companies such as Great Wall Military Industry and Lijun Shares experienced increases of over 5% [1]

廖市无双：本轮上涨的空间、时间几何？20260629 摘要 地缘政治事件初期虽引发市场担忧，但随后市场认识到实际影响有限， 风险偏好反而提升，券商板块领涨，带动市场情绪，与传统利好驱动上 涨的逻辑不同。 本轮上涨中，券商板块带动作用显著，成长指数表现强劲，呈现"金融 搭台，科技唱戏"格局，资金从红利风格转向高贝塔行业，市场风险偏 好提升。 自 2023 年 10 月以来，市场经历 ABC 调整浪，目前处于 X 浪反弹阶段， 潜在目标区间为 3,509 点至 3,550 点，预计本轮上涨行情至少可持续至 2025 年 7 月 11 日。 券商板块反弹空间仍存，预计最高可看至 876 点左右，但并非牛市启动， 而是大幅下跌后的三浪结构反弹，高度将决定大盘高度。 银行板块短期面临调整压力，但中长期上涨趋势未变，受益于市场缺乏 高景气赛道、保险资金配置需求、公募基金新规调整及良好的资本运作 循环。 2025 年 7 月市场风格预计略偏中小盘，成长与价值风格均有机会，金 融、成长、消费板块预计表现靠前，稳定与周期板块可能略显靠后。 2025 年 7 月重点推荐非银、传媒、电子、银行、通信、化工、计算机、 有色、军工、电 ...

Core Viewpoint - The small-cap style has outperformed large and mid-cap styles in the A-share market year-to-date, with expectations for continued superiority despite potential volatility in the second half of the year [1][6]. Group 1: Analysis Framework - The analysis framework for judging A-share style rotation includes major signals such as macroeconomic direction, industrial upgrade trends, and market sentiment, with small-cap stocks favored during innovation-driven phases [2][3]. - Auxiliary signals include capital market construction direction, investor structure, valuation levels, and liquidity, which can influence the rotation between small and large-cap stocks [3][4]. Group 2: Recent Performance and Factors - Since late September, a series of policies aimed at stabilizing growth have emerged, contributing to the relative strength of small-cap stocks, particularly in sectors like AI and technology [5][6]. - The investor structure has shifted, with increased activity from individual investors, as evidenced by a rise in financing balances from approximately 1.3 trillion yuan to around 1.8 trillion yuan [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The small-cap style is expected to face increased volatility in the second half of the year but is likely to continue outperforming large-cap stocks due to favorable macroeconomic conditions and ongoing industrial trends [6]. - Current valuation and trading metrics indicate that small-cap stocks have not yet reached extreme levels, suggesting room for further performance [6].

【导读】海关总署宣布， 有条件恢复日本部分地区水产品进口！回顾周末大事，汇总十大券 商最新研判 中国基金报记者 泰勒 兄弟姐妹们啊，马上又要开盘了！过去的一周交易日， 沪指涨1.91%，深成指涨3.73%，创 业板指涨5.69%。A股后市怎么走？一起回顾下周末大事，以及看看券商分析师们的最新研 判。 周末大事 海关总署：有条件恢复日本部分地区水产品进口 海关总署6月29日发布海关总署公告2025年第140号（关于有条件恢复日本部分地区水产品 进口的公告）： 在持续开展针对日本福岛核污染水排海的长期国际监测和中方独立取样监测且结果未见异 常，日本政府承诺保障输华水产品质量安全的前提下，根据我国食品安全法律法规和世界贸 易组织《实施卫生与植物卫生措施协定》有关原则，为维护消费者合法权益，中方决定有条 件恢复日本部分地区水产品（含食用水生动物，下同）进口。具体事项公告如下： 一、 即日起恢复部分原产地为日本的水产品进口， 福岛县、群马县、栃木县、茨城县、宫城 县、新潟县、长野县、埼玉县、东京都、千叶县等10个都县除外。 二、 日本输华水产品企业应当符合我国进口食品境外生产企业注册管理等相关规定。 已暂停 进口的水产 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the defense and military industry as "Outperforming the Market" [2] Core Views - The global geopolitical situation remains tense, with ongoing conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war and rising risks in the Middle East, leading to an intensified arms race and increased focus on military construction [4][38] - The defense industry is expected to see a recovery in demand as the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its final year, with long-term growth certainty supported by clear development goals for 2035 and 2050 [4] - The upcoming military parade on September 3 will showcase both traditional main battle equipment and new combat forces, highlighting advancements in military capabilities [3][40] Summary by Sections Market Review - The defense and military index rose by 6.90% last week, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component [12] - The current PE (TTM) for the defense and military sector is 79.92 times, with sub-sectors showing varied valuations: aerospace equipment at 143.52 times, aviation equipment at 69.14 times, ground weapons at 174.36 times, naval equipment at 50.76 times, and military electronics at 102.36 times [20][21] Key Recommendations - Recommended companies include: 1. Downstream manufacturers: Hongdu Aviation, AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and AVIC Helicopter [4] 2. Military new technologies: Lianchuang Optoelectronics, Guangqi Technology, and Zhongjian Technology [4] 3. Underwater equipment: Hailanxin, Yaxing Anchor Chain, and Zhongke Haixun [4] 4. Missile industry chain: Feilihua, Guoke Military Industry, and Zhongbing Hongjian [4] 5. Military titanium materials: Western Superconducting [4] 6. Electronic components: Hongyuan Electronics and Aerospace Electronics [4] 7. Military trade direction: Zhongwu Drone [4] Industry Dynamics - Recent policies related to deep-sea technology indicate significant development potential, particularly for specialized equipment like UUVs, supported by top-level planning [3] - The military trade market is expanding, with recent announcements of procurement from Pakistan for Chinese fighter jets, indicating a growing opportunity in military exports [39]

Group 1 - The market performance this week exceeded expectations, driven by factors such as increased interest rate cut expectations from the Federal Reserve, appreciation of the RMB, stabilization of military conflicts in the Middle East, and anticipated visits from Trump to China [1] - Incremental capital sources include a marginal recovery in newly issued active equity public funds, rapid follow-up from leveraged funds, and a potential acceleration of insurance capital entering the market since mid-June [1] - The market's future performance will be dominated by capital and valuation, with a bullish long-term outlook for the index, although short-term fluctuations are expected rather than a continuous surge [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, a better strategy is to position at low levels and utilize odds thinking, with ongoing high-low switching being a key market signal [2] - The sectors that have shown relative underperformance since March 2020 but have seen marginally improved profit expectations recently are worth attention, including semiconductors, solid-state batteries, power grid equipment, industrial metals, and beer [2] - Caution is advised regarding short-term volatility risks in the banking sector as capital accelerates and the cost-effectiveness of stock-bond spreads decreases [2]

Market Review - The global stock market risk appetite has significantly improved due to the rapid de-escalation of the Middle East situation and the growing expectations of interest rate cuts overseas, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices reaching all-time highs. The A-share index has strengthened, driven by the large financial sector, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through its year-to-date high after three consecutive days of gains. Active theme investments have emerged, particularly in military, non-bank financials, and stablecoin concepts. Major A-share indices have generally risen, with the North Star 50, micro-cap indices, ChiNext, and CSI 2000 indices leading the gains, while the dividend index declined. In commodities, international oil prices and gold have significantly retreated, and the US dollar index continues to decline, with a year-to-date drop exceeding 10%, while the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate has risen to around 7.15 [1][2]. Market Outlook - The global space for interest rate cuts has reopened, and the A-share market is expected to continue its "steady improvement." Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, the market has begun pricing in rate cuts due to the easing of geopolitical risks and falling oil prices. Domestically, the A-share index has gradually risen due to the continuous inflow of medium- to long-term funds. The recent increase in trading volume and improved profitability in the A-share market have boosted investor risk appetite, reopening the upper range of the market's fluctuation center. Looking ahead, the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy have significantly weakened, and the domestic policy of "stabilizing growth" requires a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces will help elevate A-share valuations. Key areas of focus for the market include: balanced industry allocation with a focus on non-ferrous metals, military industry, AI computing power, and AI applications. Thematic investments should pay attention to solid-state batteries, stablecoins, and self-controllable technologies [2]. Overseas Economic Conditions - The expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased, with the probability of three rate cuts in the second half of the year rising. The actual GDP of the US in the first quarter was unexpectedly revised down to -0.5%, with personal consumption expenditure, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy, only growing by 0.5%. This has led to a downward adjustment in its contribution to GDP by approximately 0.3 percentage points, primarily due to a decline in service consumption. Consumer confidence in the US has significantly declined this year, raising concerns about the impact of tariffs on US economic data. Recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials suggest that if inflation remains moderate, they may support a rate cut in July. Despite significant internal divisions reflected in the June dot plot, the market has begun to price in rate cuts, leading to declines in the US dollar index and Treasury yields, while US stocks have risen. According to CME FedWatch, market expectations for the number of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have increased from two to three [5]. Domestic Economic Conditions - The weak dollar expectation is conducive to global capital flowing into emerging markets, with A-shares benefiting from domestic and foreign liquidity easing. In early May, the Hong Kong dollar triggered the strong-side Convertibility Undertaking multiple times, but within a month, it transitioned from a strong-side to a weak-side guarantee, indicating tightening liquidity expectations for the Hong Kong dollar, which may exert pressure on the Hong Kong stock market. However, this is expected to be a temporary impact. Looking ahead, the weak dollar driven by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts is likely to continue, further reducing the constraints of exchange rates on China's monetary policy. In the second half of the year, the impact of tariffs on domestic exports may gradually become apparent, while the focus of domestic policy remains on "stabilizing growth," necessitating a loose monetary environment. The reopening of domestic and foreign interest rate cut spaces, along with ample liquidity, is expected to directly promote the elevation of A-share valuations [5]. Trading Volume and Market Sentiment - The increase in trading volume and profitability has helped boost risk appetite, with the A-share index center expected to rise in July. Year-to-date, medium- to long-term funds have continuously flowed into A-shares, with net purchases by social security, insurance, and annuity funds exceeding 200 billion yuan, contributing to a virtuous cycle of "reporting increases—funds entering—market stability." This week, the daily trading volume of A-shares has repeatedly exceeded 1.6 trillion yuan, with no significant increase in the issuance of equity funds and ETF subscriptions. Meanwhile, financing funds have net purchased for four consecutive trading days (from June 23 to June 26), and after the Shanghai Composite Index effectively broke through 3,400 points, the financing balance has further increased, reflecting an improvement in market risk appetite, which is conducive to further elevating the A-share index center in July [5]. Fundamental Analysis - From a fundamental perspective, the impact of tariffs on corporate profits is gradually becoming apparent, and the marginal weakening of the real estate market is expected to delay the upward trend in A-share earnings. In May, the year-on-year decline in industrial enterprises above designated size was -9.1%, a significant drop from April's 3%, with declines in volume, price, and profit margins. The PPI in May fell by 3.3% year-on-year, remaining in negative territory for 32 consecutive months. Historical experience shows a strong correlation between PPI and non-financial A-share earnings; if PPI continues to weaken, it may interrupt the brief earnings recovery seen in A-shares in the first quarter. On the other hand, the weak fundamental elasticity of A-shares suggests that they are more likely to experience a gradual elevation of the fluctuation center amid volatility [5]. Valuation and Risk Premium - The overall PE (TTM) of A-shares and the PE (TTM) excluding financials and oil & gas sectors are critical indicators for assessing market valuation. The latest valuation metrics for major A-share industries, including PE (TTM) and PB (LF), provide insights into the current market conditions and potential investment opportunities [38][40].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the defense and military industry [5]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming military parade on September 3 is expected to showcase the latest advancements in military capabilities, including traditional and new combat forces, reflecting China's strong ability to adapt to technological developments and evolving warfare [3][46]. - The defense and military index has shown strong performance, with a 6.90% increase from June 23 to June 27, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.95 percentage points [3][12]. - The report highlights a strong demand recovery expected in the military industry by 2025, driven by multiple catalysts such as the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the "Centenary of the Army" goals, suggesting significant growth in both domestic and foreign demand [4][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The military industry index (801740) increased by 6.90% during the week of June 23-27, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.95%, ranking second among 31 first-level industries [12][17]. - The military industry index has risen by 8.28% since 2025, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index has decreased by 0.33%, indicating a relative outperformance of 8.61 percentage points [19]. - The aviation sector showed the most significant gains, with notable increases in specific stocks such as Zhimin Da and Hangfa Technology, which rose by 19.62% and 18.91%, respectively [23]. 2. Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on three main lines of investment: domestic trade, foreign trade, and self-sufficiency [47]. - For domestic trade, suggested companies include Tianqin Equipment, Bai'ao Intelligent, and Gaode Infrared [47]. - In the foreign trade sector, companies like Guangdong Hongda and Aerospace Rainbow are highlighted [48]. - For self-sufficiency, companies involved in commercial engines and nuclear fusion, such as Hangyu Technology and Guoguang Electric, are recommended [51]. 3. Funding and Valuation - The report notes a slight increase in passive fund sizes and leverage funds, indicating a positive outlook for the military sector's funding environment [30][36]. - As of June 27, the military industry index's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) stands at 86.67 times, suggesting a high configuration value given the expected recovery in the industry by 2025 [47][37]. - The report emphasizes that most companies in the military sector are expected to have valuations below 30 times by 2026, indicating potential for performance improvement [41].

Core Insights - The recent surge in U.S. stock markets, particularly the NASDAQ and S&P 500 reaching all-time highs, is attributed not only to technology giants but also to broader sector participation, indicating potential for further gains throughout the summer [1][3]. Market Trends - Initially, U.S. stocks faced significant declines due to tariff concerns, with technology stocks leading the downturn. However, as fears of economic recession eased and trade relations improved, a strong rebound occurred, expanding beyond the tech sector to include financial, industrial, and utility sectors [3][4]. - Indicators show an expanding market participation, with the number of S&P 500 stocks closing above their 50-day moving average returning to levels seen during the 2016 election period, suggesting a strengthening technical outlook [3]. - The ratio of advancing to declining stocks reached a new high, further indicating broader market engagement [3]. Investment Strategies - Investors are increasingly diversifying their portfolios beyond technology stocks, with a focus on sectors previously overlooked. This shift is partly driven by concerns of missing out on market gains (FOMO trading) as tech valuations rise [4]. - Some professional investors are strategically reallocating their investments towards defense, finance, and international blue-chip stocks, seeking to reduce reliance on a single sector [4]. Sector Performance - Despite the overall market rally, small-cap stocks continue to lag behind major indices. Analysts suggest that a significant shift in investor risk appetite is necessary for small-cap stocks to catch up [6]. - Optimistic views exist regarding small-cap stocks, particularly local bank stocks, which are expected to benefit from lower financing costs due to potential Federal Reserve rate cuts and less exposure to tariff impacts [6]. Technology Sector Outlook - While other sectors are beginning to catch up, the dominance of technology giants remains strong in the short term, with AI optimism continuing to be a key theme supporting high valuations in the tech sector [5].