（图片系AI生成） 时隔多年后，大股东资产注入计划终于再次启动。 股权结构方面，云铜集团持有40%股权，凉山州工业投资发展集团有限责任公司持有40%股权，云南铜 业持有20%股权。2022年1月，云铜集团将凉山矿业40%的股权委托云南铜业管理。2023年11月，云南 铜业发布控股股东承诺事项延期的公告称，因凉山矿业土地、房产等资产问题较为复杂，云铜集团对凉 山矿业的股权注入承诺已延期至2026年11月底前启动。 目前市场对云南铜业存在较强的重组预期，此次大股东终于启动凉山矿业资产注入计划似乎让投资者看 到了希望。再加上2023年间接控股股东中国铜业已将中矿国际股权委托云南铜业代管，并压缩管理层 级，被外界视为资产注入前兆；2024年中国铝业集团增持云南铜业股权1.98%亦被看作是为后续整合铺 路。 但此次凉山矿业能否注入成功还要打一个问号，一是因为云南铜业曾有多次重大筹划"落空"，比如2014 年、2015年的两次定增。二是云铜集团也曾违背承诺，其在2014年6月云铜集团明确了资产注入时间 表，即在当年内启动资产注入，同年云南铜业也曾公告筹划资产重组。然而，该事项最终在上市公司停 牌三个月后宣告终止，理由是" ...

Group 1: Production and Operational Performance - In 2024, the company produced 155,200 tons of copper concentrate, 1,768,000 tons of cathode copper, 415,800 tons of copper processing materials, 5,359,600 tons of sulfuric acid, 229.1 tons of gold, 5,476.7 tons of silver, 393,600 tons of iron concentrate, and 447,300 tons of sulfur concentrate, successfully meeting production targets [3] - The company achieved operating revenue of 145.531 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.88%; total profit of 5.508 billion yuan, up 2.15%; and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company of 2.809 billion yuan, an increase of 4.05% [4] Group 2: Safety and Environmental Management - The company maintained a "zero work-related death" and "zero environmental incident" goal, enhancing safety and environmental culture through various initiatives [5] - The company added two photovoltaic power generation projects, generating over 12 million kWh, and purchased over 112 million kWh of green electricity, reducing carbon emissions by 2.02% [5] Group 3: Technological Innovation and Development - R&D investment reached 4.68 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.38%, with 334 key technology projects implemented [7] - The company received 9 provincial and ministerial-level science and technology achievement awards, including 6 first prizes and 3 second prizes, and was granted 329 patents, including 269 invention patents [7] Group 4: Industry and Market Trends - In 2024, global refined copper consumption grew by 2.9%, with China being the core driver, particularly benefiting from the rapid growth of the electric vehicle industry, which saw a year-on-year increase of over 34% in production and sales [11] - Copper prices fluctuated significantly, with an annual average price of 74,904 yuan/ton, up 9.7% year-on-year, ranging between 67,830 yuan/ton and 88,940 yuan/ton [12] Group 5: Future Plans and Strategic Goals - For 2025, the company plans to produce 194,900 tons of copper concentrate, 1,896,000 tons of cathode copper, and 430,500 tons of copper processing materials, among other targets [16] - The company aims to enhance operational efficiency and cost control, focusing on quality improvement and resource optimization to maintain competitiveness [18] Group 6: Social Responsibility and ESG Initiatives - The company allocated 4.34 million yuan for scholarships benefiting 86 university students and purchased agricultural products worth 13.5389 million yuan for consumption assistance [10] - The company was recognized in the "ESG Pioneer 100 Index" and the "Top 50 ESG Listed Companies in the Yangtze River Delta" for its commitment to social responsibility [10]

云南铜业（000878）公告，公司正在筹划发行股份购买云南铜业(集团)有限公司持有的凉山矿业股份有 限公司40%股份并募集配套资金。因有关事项尚存不确定性，公司证券自2025年5月13日开市时起开始 停牌，预计在不超过10个交易日的时间内披露本次交易方案。若未能在上述期限内召开董事会审议并披 露交易方案，公司证券最晚将于2025年5月27日开市起复牌并终止筹划相关事项。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US tariff negotiations have achieved initial results, and the inventory of electrolytic copper at home and abroad tends to decline. However, as the traditional off-season of consumption approaches, copper prices may be strong first and then weak. It is recommended that investors wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 77,450 yuan, up 120 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 111,450 lots, down 5,268 lots; the open interest was 181,319 lots, up 1,627 lots; the inventory was 19,165 tons, down 375 tons. The average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 78,205 yuan, down 230 yuan. The Shanghai copper basis and various spot premiums and discounts, as well as the spreads between near - and far - month contracts, showed different degrees of change [2]. - **London Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures settlement price (electronic trading) was 9,445.5 US dollars, up 14 US dollars. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased, and the spreads of different LME copper futures contracts also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On May 9, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 4.654 US dollars, up 0.03 US dollars, and the total inventory was 160,250 tons, up 3,627 tons [2]. Company News - **Jinchengxin**: It plans to acquire a 50% stake in Colombia's OM Company for 100 million US dollars and gain control. It will invest 230 million US dollars in the construction of the Alacran copper - gold - silver mine project, with an estimated investment of 420.4 million US dollars, a construction period of 2 years, and an expected mine life of 12 years. The company will contribute about 202.22 million US dollars according to the equity ratio and lead the subsequent development and construction of the mine, with an average annual ore mining volume of about 6.1 million tons, equivalent to 25,000 tons of copper, 1.4 tons of gold, and 16 tons of silver [2]. - **Codelco and Escondida Mine**: In March, Codelco's copper production increased by 14.8% year - on - year to 123,200 tons, and the Escondida mine under BHP Billiton's smelting had a 18.9% year - on - year increase in copper production to 120,600 tons [2]. Important Information - **Macro - economic**: The US Senate and House of Representatives reached an agreement on the budget resolution on April 10, including tax cuts of 5.5 trillion US dollars in the next ten years, an increase in the debt ceiling of 5 trillion US dollars, and a reduction in government spending of 4 billion US dollars. The Trump administration proposed to cut the federal fiscal budget by 163 billion US dollars in 2026. The US ISM manufacturing PMI and employment data in April were not bad, delaying the expected time of the Fed's interest rate cut to July, September, or December [2]. - **Upstream**: Some copper mines in Peru, Poland, Kazakhstan, etc. have production changes such as resumption or suspension. Some copper smelters at home and abroad have production adjustments due to various reasons, such as accidents, overhauls, and new capacity launches. The domestic copper concentrate production (import) volume, electrolytic copper production (import) volume, and waste copper production (import) volume may change in May. The inventory of electrolytic copper in China's bonded area, social inventory, and LME inventory decreased, while the COMEX inventory increased [2]. - **Downstream**: The new orders and long - order executions of refined copper rod enterprises decreased significantly, resulting in a decline in the capacity utilization rate of refined copper rods and an increase in that of recycled copper rods. The capacity utilization rate, production volume, import volume, and export volume of domestic copper product enterprises may decline in May, with different performances in different sub - industries [2]. 4. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to wait and see for the moment, paying attention to the support and resistance levels of copper prices in different markets: 70,000/73,000 - 75,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 8,700 - 8,900 US dollars for London copper, 4.3 - 4.58 US dollars for COMEX copper on the support side, and 78,500 - 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper, 9,600 - 9,800 US dollars for London copper, 4.85/5.0 - 5.2 US dollars for COMEX copper on the resistance side [3].

Group 1 - The "Jiangxi sector" achieved nearly 1.08 trillion yuan in total operating revenue in 2024, ranking tenth among 31 provinces and cities in China [1] - Jiangxi listed companies distributed a total dividend of nearly 10.4 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend payout ratio of approximately 77%, ranking eighth nationwide [1][3] - Jiangxi Copper (600362) reported over 520 billion yuan in operating revenue for 2024, with a net profit of 6.962 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.03% [1] Group 2 - JinkoSolar (688223) topped the A-share photovoltaic industry with an annual operating revenue of 92.471 billion yuan, achieving a global module shipment of 92.87 GW, a year-on-year growth of 18.28% [1] - The company maintained its position as the global leader in module shipments for the sixth consecutive year, with N-type module shipments accounting for 88% of total shipments in 2024 [1] Group 3 - Major infrastructure projects like the Gan-Shen High-speed Railway and Gan-Yue Canal are transforming Jiangxi from an "inland hinterland" to an "open frontier" [2] - Jiangxi Copper is expanding internationally with new offices in South America and Southeast Asia, while JinkoSolar is establishing a new battery and module factory in Saudi Arabia [2] - Other companies like Funeng Technology (688567) and Nipe Mining (300818) are also advancing their international strategies, indicating a trend of "Jiangxi manufacturing" integrating into the global supply chain [2] Group 4 - Jiangxi listed companies are focusing on refining their core businesses while actively implementing the "1269" action plan to upgrade traditional industries and foster emerging sectors [3] - In 2024, Jiangxi Copper allocated 2.417 billion yuan for cash dividends, with several other companies also distributing over 500 million yuan in dividends [3] - The overall dividend distribution of nearly 10.4 billion yuan reflects a strong commitment to shareholder returns and social responsibility among Jiangxi enterprises [3] Group 5 - As the "14th Five-Year Plan" approaches its conclusion, Jiangxi listed companies are showing promising new developments, with traditional industry giants and emerging players competing in the capital market [4] - The formation of a trillion-level non-ferrous metal industry cluster and a photovoltaic new energy base is expected to enhance the national ranking of the "Jiangxi sector" in the next five years [4]

Group 1: Copper Price Management - The company utilizes hedging tools to manage copper price fluctuations and has established a hedging management system to mitigate risks [2] - The copper concentrate processing fee is expected to remain low in the short term, based on the 2025 long-term contract pricing [3] Group 2: Research and Development Focus - Future R&D priorities include developing high-end, high-value-added products in the copper strip and foil sector [3] - The company aims to accelerate the digital transformation of traditional industries, implementing a phased approach to smart upgrades [3] Group 3: Environmental Initiatives - The company invested CNY 140 million in various environmental protection measures in 2024, including tailings pond management [3] - Future strategies will focus on comprehensive pollution control, adhering to principles of source reduction, process control, and end-of-pipe treatment [3] Group 4: Shareholder Returns - The company has disclosed a shareholder return plan for 2023-2025, considering industry conditions and operational performance for profit distribution [3] Group 5: Market Trends and Governance - Copper prices are influenced by global economic trends, supply-demand dynamics, monetary policy, and geopolitical risks [4] - The company plans to optimize its governance structure and internal control systems in 2025 to enhance operational efficiency [4]

数据显示，5月9日上海1#电解铜现货价格报价78205.00元/吨，相较于期货主力价格（77450.00元/吨） 升水755.00元/吨。 分析观点： 兴业期货研报：全球宏观不确定性和中俄联合声明影响市场风险偏好改善，矿端供给紧张，冶炼加工费 走低，国内消费旺季尾声，去库节奏放缓，美元指数波动影响铜价维持区间震荡。 | 规格 | 品牌/产 | 报价 | 报价类 | 交货 | 交易商 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 地 | | 型 | 地 | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海华 | 78205元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海华通有色金属现货市 | | CATH-2 ; | 通 | 吨 | | | 场 | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 广东南 | 78290元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 广东南储有色现货市场 | | CATH-2 ; | 储 | 吨 | | | | | 品名:1#电解铜 ;牌号:标准阴极铜Cu | 上海有 | 78230元/ | 市场价 | 上海 | 上海有色金属交易中心 | | CATH- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Arbitrage: Suspended - Option: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - In April, domestic copper inventories decreased significantly due to a high premium in the Comex market, leading to a global inventory flow to the US, reduced domestic imports, increased domestic maintenance, and significant copper concentrate interference. However, high uncertainties in macro factors and domestic demand outlook caused copper prices to weaken at the end of April. In May, copper prices may remain in a volatile range of approximately 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Futures Quotes**: On May 8, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened at 77,620 yuan/ton and closed at 77,330 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the previous trading day's close. The night session opened at 73,810 yuan/ton and closed at 74,060 yuan/ton, up 0.47% from the afternoon close [1] - **Spot Situation**: On the day, due to the widening of the monthly spread, spot arbitrageurs actively sold goods at low prices. The Shanghai electrolytic copper shipment sentiment index was 3.07, and the procurement sentiment was 3.61, up 0.14 and 0.07 respectively from the previous day. The morning quotation for some copper types was at a premium of 220 - 280 yuan/ton, and the price decreased during the second trading session [2] Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The UK and the US reached a trade agreement, retaining a 10% benchmark tariff on the UK, expanding market access, canceling steel and aluminum tariffs, implementing a 0% tariff on US agricultural products, and a stepped tariff on UK automobile imports. The US may take enforcement actions on imported services, and the UK agreed to a $10 billion Boeing aircraft purchase agreement. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points with a divided vote, and Trump criticized Powell [3] - **Mine End**: JCHX Mining Management plans to acquire a 5% stake in CMH and gain control for a consideration of $10 million and a contingent consideration of $4.4 million or $15.4 million. After the transaction, it will hold 55% of CMH's shares through its subsidiary and lead the development of the Alacran copper-gold-silver mine [3] - **Smelting and Import**: As of the end of 2024, Reko Diq's possible reserves include 7.3 million tons of copper and 13 million ounces of gold. Once fully operational, it is expected to produce 240,000 tons/year of copper and 297,000 ounces/year of gold in the first stage, and increase to 460,000 tons/year of copper and 520,000 ounces/year of gold in the second stage's first decade [4] - **Consumption**: In April 2025, the actual output of domestic refined copper rods was 1.0396 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6.87% and a year-on-year increase of 19.34%. In May, the estimated output is 996,200 tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.38% and a year-on-year decrease of 4.18%. The cumulative estimated output from January to May is 4.5265 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 12.85%. The capacity utilization rate in April was 67.82%, up 6.41% month-on-month and 8.61% year-on-year [4] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,675 tons to 194,275 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,001 tons to 19,540 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on May 6 was 120,100 tons, a decrease of 8,400 tons from the previous week [5] Strategy - **Unilateral**: Neutral. Copper prices may remain volatile in May, ranging from 73,500 yuan/ton to 79,800 yuan/ton [6] - **Arbitrage**: Suspended - **Option**: short put@74,000 yuan/ton [6]

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所长 早读 2025-05-08 期 国泰君安期货 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 符合市场预期，美联储继续按兵不动 观点分享： 美东时间 5 月 7 日，美联储在货币政策委员会 FOMC 会后宣布，联邦基金利率的目标区 间保持 4.25%至 4.5%不变。这是美联储连续第三次货币政策会议决定暂停行动。特朗普今年 1 月上任以来，尽管一再喊话呼吁降息，但美联储还是一直保持观望并未降息，还暗示目前 关税等政策有引发滞胀的风险。相比 3 月的 FOMC 会后声明，在 3 月"经济前景相关的不确 定性增加"的表述上添加了"进一步"这个词，强调了"不确定性"的增加。并判定"失业 率上升和通胀上升的风险已经增加"。并且在声明开头提到"净出口波动已影响数据"，尽 管接下来依然使用了"最近的指标显示经济活动继续稳健扩张"的表述。另外，声明没有再 次提到"进一步放慢缩减资产负债表（缩表）这一量化紧缩（QT）行动的步伐"。再有，本 次既不调整利率也不再改动缩表的决策，全体 FOMC 的投票委员都表示支持。 宏观：5 月7 日，国新办发布会官宣一系列金融稳市场、稳预期政策。首先从政策内容上看， 所 长 ...