Group 1: Hot News - Iran's South Pars gas field and some petrochemical facilities in Asaluyeh were attacked by the US and Israel, and Iran declared to strike back at US - related oil facilities and listed energy facilities of Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar as legitimate targets. Iraq reported a complete halt of Iranian - supplied natural gas [2] - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has severely impacted global energy supply. The daily average oil exports of eight Middle - Eastern countries dropped by about 61% compared to the February average according to Kpler, and by 71% according to Vortexa [2] - The Federal Reserve kept the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a 11 - 1 vote. Fed理事米兰 opposed and advocated a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The economic outlook has high uncertainty due to the Middle - East situation [3] - Guinea will limit bauxite exports by early April to stabilize prices and may link exports to production levels in mining feasibility studies [3] - As of the week ending March 18, national key steel product output and inventory data showed that building material output increased by 32.01 million tons, factory inventory decreased by 43.12 million tons, social inventory increased by 5.54 million tons, and total inventory decreased by 37.58 million tons [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, low - sulfur fuel oil, crude oil, and PP [4] Group 3: Night - trading Performance - Different commodity sectors had various night - trading performance. For example, non - metallic building materials had a 2.39% increase, precious metals had a 29.01% increase, and so on [4] Group 4: Position Changes - There were changes in the positions of different commodity futures sectors in the past five days [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and yearly performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a 0.32% daily increase, a - 2.40% monthly decrease, and a 2.37% yearly increase [6] Group 6: Major Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of major commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, etc. [7]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2026-3-19） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 每日观点 焦煤： 3、库存：钢厂库存820万吨，港口库存258万吨，独立焦企库存893万吨，总样本库存1971万吨，较上 周减少243万吨；偏多 6、预期：近日成材成交量回升，带动钢材价格有涨，钢厂利润有所修复，但目前复产仍较谨慎，且焦 企对高价资源采购趋于谨慎，按需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或暂稳运行。 1、基本面：主产地煤矿稳定开工，焦煤产量维持充足态势。随着近期下游询价增多及成交好转，煤矿 端库存压力有所缓解，目前煤矿方面多有预售情况，矿方心态乐观，部分前期超跌的煤种及优质主焦煤 资源，煤矿挺价甚至小幅探涨的意愿增强；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1210，基差53.5；现货升水期货；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净多，多减；偏多 焦煤 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overall trend of oil prices is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic oil supply is stable. Sino-US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The soaring international crude oil price drives up the oil price. The domestic oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in December, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 5.46% month-on-month to 1.8298 million tons, exports increased by 8.55% month-on-month to 1.3165 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory increased by 7.59% month-on-month to 3.0506 million tons. The report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. Currently, the shipping survey agency shows that the export data of Malaysian palm oil in January has increased by 29% month-on-month. Entering the production - reduction season, the supply pressure of palm oil decreases. It is neutral [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8860, with a basis of 320, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, compared with 1.08 million tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 60,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 14.7%. It is bearish [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. It is bullish [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 8400 - 8800 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9860, with a basis of 168, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. It is bearish [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, compared with 733,800 tons previously, a month - on - month increase of 2200 tons and a year - on - year increase of 46%. It is bearish [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract increased. It is bearish [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9600 - 10000 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report is slightly bearish, and the inventory data exceeded expectations. The export data in January has increased by 29% month-on-month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the production - reduction season. It is neutral [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10320, with a basis of 540, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. It is bullish [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, compared with 270,000 tons previously, a month - on - month decrease of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 44%. It is bullish [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. It is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract increased. It is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The oil prices are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic oil inventory has been continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

文字早评 2026/03/19 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、伊朗称部分海湾能源设施现已成为合法打击目标； 2、美国 2 月 PPI 环比上升 0.7% 明显高于预期；除食品和能源外的最终需求 PPI 同比增长 3.9%；预计 上升 3.7%； 3、自然资源部，四川冕宁、甘肃宕昌发现固体矿产，分别是稀土、萤石、重晶石、锑； 4、特朗普临时豁免《琼斯法案》，以应对国内能源价格飙升。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：18.01%/6.81%/12.13%/8.36%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：15.58%/9.31%/16.68%/10.68%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：24.20%/10.73%/19.82%/13.24%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：23.10%/2.63%/4.25%/4.32%。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好，油价持续上涨、核心 PCE 数据及就业基本符合预期，美联储降息预 期减弱，美债收益率快速攀升；国内出口韧性、PPI 连续收窄，建议关注战局转变，注意控制风险。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 110. ...

格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 3 月 19 日星期四 研究员： 刘洋 从业资格： F3063825 交易咨询资格：Z0016580 Morning session notice Morning session notice 早盘提示 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 | 降 3.8%。1-2 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增长 6.3%，市场预期增长 5.2%， | | --- | | 去年 12 月同比增长 5.2%，2025 年同比增长 5.9%。1-2 月份，社会消费品零售总额 | | 同比增长 2.8%，市场预期 2.4%，去年 12 月同比增长 0.9%，2025 年全年同比增长 | | 3.7%。以美元计价，1-2 月份我国出口同比增长 21.8%，好于预估的增长 7.3%，去 | | 年 12 月同比增长 6.6%。中国 2 月份 CPI 同比上涨 1.3%，市场预期涨 0.9%；2 月 PPI | | 同比下降 0.9%，市场预期同比下降 1.2%。2 月中国整体通胀水平超预期回升。近日 | | 央 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - COMEX gold futures dropped 3.68% to $4,823.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures dropped 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce; Shanghai gold night - trading session closed down 2.23% at 1088.90 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver closed down 4.44% at 19,170 yuan per kilogram. The market short - term uncertainty is high, and investors should control positions and prevent risks [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Quotes - COMEX gold futures fell 3.68% to $4,823.90 per ounce, COMEX silver futures fell 5.63% to $75.42 per ounce. Shanghai gold night - trading session closed down 2.23% at 1088.90 yuan per gram, Shanghai silver closed down 4.44% at 19,170 yuan per kilogram [1] - The U.S. dollar index rose 0.74% to 100.30, the 10 - year U.S. Treasury yield rose nearly 6.5 basis points to 4.265% [2] 3.2. Important Information - On March 18, the holdings of the world's largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, decreased by 2.571 tons to 1066.993 tons; the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, iShares Silver Trust, decreased by 125.35 tons to 15,264.4 tons [1] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in April is 0%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 100%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points cumulatively by June is 11.2%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 88.8%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged by July is 77.4% [1] - The U.S. February PPI rose 3.4% year - on - year (expected 3.0%, previous 2.8%), and rose 0.7% month - on - month (estimated 0.3%, previous 0.5%); the core PPI rose 3.9% year - on - year (expected 3.7%, previous 3.5%), and rose 0.5% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous 0.8%) [1] - At the Fed's March interest - rate meeting early today, the federal funds rate was kept unchanged, meeting market expectations. The Fed pointed out the uncertainty of the Middle - East impact, raised inflation expectations, and still expected one interest - rate cut this year. Powell said no rate cuts until inflation improves [1] - U.S. media reported that the U.S. wants to destroy Iran's military power and end the war as soon as possible, while Israel insists on hunting down Iranian leaders. Trump hopes Israel to suspend further attacks on Iranian energy facilities. Iranian energy facilities were attacked, and Iran vowed to strike back at the oil facilities of three Middle - East countries [1] 3.3. Market Logic - On Wednesday, the attack on Iran's South Pars petrochemical facilities caused a sharp rise in international crude oil prices. The U.S. February producer price index rose 3.4% year - on - year, higher than the market estimate. Traders further reduced their bets on Fed rate cuts in 2026. The Fed's March interest - rate meeting decided to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, meeting market expectations [1] - The expansion of the U.S. - Iran conflict to civilian oil facilities led to a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, suppressing COMEX gold and silver prices, which found support at around $4800 per ounce for gold and $75 per ounce for silver [2] 3.4. Trading Strategy - Due to high short - term market uncertainty, investors should control positions and prevent risks [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the trading volume of the soda ash futures market will fluctuate greatly. If it can stabilize at 1200 points, the upper price range may be opened. In the long - term, due to the weak fundamentals, the soda ash market still faces downward price pressure. The market deadlock needs to wait for the real - sense capacity clearance on the supply side. [8] - For glass, the upper price is suppressed by high inventory and pending production capacity, and the lower price is supported by possible cold repairs of production lines due to industry - wide losses. Currently, the market is in the traditional off - season, but the trading sentiment has improved. Short - term long positions can be tried but with limited upside. [9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Soda Ash Market Data on March 18th**: The main soda ash futures contract SA605 closed at 1211 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.57%, and the daily position decreased by 864 lots. The contract SA609 closed at 1278 yuan/ton, down 28 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.14%, and the position increased by 10296 lots. [7][8] - **Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis**: The supply side has over - supply pressure due to new capacity and high operating rates. The demand side is dragged down by the real estate and photovoltaic industries. The inventory is at a high level and the de - stocking is slow. The government's stance on real estate in the government work report has improved the demand expectation, and geopolitical factors provide cost support. [8] - **Glass Market Data on March 18th**: The main glass futures contract FG605 closed at 1066 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.73%, and the position increased by 28498 lots. The contract FG609 closed at 1194 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton with a decline of 2.45%, and the position increased by 18463 lots. [7] - **Glass Fundamental Analysis**: The glass price is suppressed by high inventory and pending production capacity above, and supported by possible cold repairs of production lines due to industry losses below. The cold repair of individual production lines has limited support for prices, and the inventory accumulation is still the main factor suppressing the price increase. [9] 3.2 Data Overview - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of soda ash and glass active contracts, soda ash weekly production, soda ash enterprise inventory, central China heavy soda market price, and flat glass production, with data sources from Wind and iFind. [12][14][17]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View - The seasonal characteristics of crude oil inventory accumulation and refined product inventory depletion continue after the refinery operating rate deviates from the high at the beginning of the year. The data at the beginning of March has not been significantly affected by the sharp reduction in Middle East supply, and subsequent attention should be paid to the rhythm of SPR release and changes in net exports of crude oil and petroleum products [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Inventory and Production - In the week of March 13, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 6.156 million barrels, gasoline inventory decreased by 5.436 million barrels, and diesel inventory decreased by 2.527 million barrels [4] - US crude oil production was 13.668 million barrels per day, a decrease of 10,000 barrels per day from the previous value [4] - The refinery operating rate rose from 90.8% to 91.4%, and the crude oil processing volume increased by 63,000 barrels per day [4] Demand - US refined product apparent demand was 21.639 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 21.201 million barrels per day [4] - US gasoline apparent demand was 8.728 million barrels per day, a decrease from the previous value of 9.241 million barrels per day [4] - US diesel apparent demand was 4.399 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 4.065 million barrels per day [4] Trade - US crude oil imports were 7.194 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 6.422 million barrels per day [4] - US crude oil exports were 4.898 million barrels per day, an increase from the previous value of 3.434 million barrels per day [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The stock and bond markets are showing signs of improvement. For stock index futures, the downside is limited, and it is advisable to hold a bottom - position. For stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding call options for defense. For bond futures, the sentiment in the bond market is gradually recovering [1][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 Market Outlook Stock Index Futures - On Wednesday, the equity market rebounded in a volatile manner, with the ChiNext and STAR Market leading the gains, while finance, real estate, and petrochemical sectors were weak. The decline in the center of crude oil futures led to a rotation of market styles. The sustainability of the market needs attention, as trading volume remained low (slightly exceeding 2 trillion yuan) and the open interest of stock index futures did not increase significantly. However, the overall downward space is judged to be limited, and it is recommended to hold a bottom - position of IM. The focus should be on geopolitical developments, especially the convergence of crude oil spot prices [1][6]. Stock Index Options - Affected by market conditions, the trading volume of each option variety slightly increased, the option sentiment indicator (open interest PCR) dropped significantly, and the implied volatility was relatively strong, indicating a strong hedging atmosphere. It is recommended to continue holding call options for defense to protect the systematic risks of the overall position [1][6]. Bond Futures - The bond market sentiment continued to recover. The T - contract of bond futures trended upward in a volatile manner, and the motivation for long - positions to enter the market was relatively strong. The ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict and the recent decline in oil prices may have spurred the long - position sentiment in the bond market, and inflation concerns may not have further intensified. Although there was tax payment and a small net withdrawal of funds by the central bank, the overall liquidity remained loose, which was favorable for the bond market. The short - end of the bond market remained relatively strong, and the long - end interest rate declined, showing a bullish steepening of the yield curve. It is necessary to pay attention to the development of the Middle - East conflict and inflation expectations, and the cost - effectiveness of bond allocation may increase again [2][7]. 3.2 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The report mentions the monitoring data of stock index futures, stock index options, and bond futures, but no specific content is provided in the given text [8][12][24].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle East energy facilities attack has significantly impacted the global energy supply, leading to a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle Eastern countries and affecting the prices of various commodities [8][9]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range unchanged, with a more conservative interest - rate cut path, reflecting a cautious stance [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes, and different investment and trading strategies are proposed for different commodities [15][18][20] [29]. Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Macro Information - The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle Eastern energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the US President's attitude is uncertain. The conflict has caused a significant reduction in Middle Eastern oil exports [8][9]. - The Fed maintains the federal funds rate and has a more conservative interest - rate cut path. It also raises inflation and economic growth expectations [10][12]. - Cloud providers are experiencing a price increase wave, while many banks are reducing deposit interest rates. Samsung is facing a labor - management conflict, and Tencent's QClaw has a major version update [11]. Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Temporarily hold off on trading. The A - share market shows a bottom - out and rebound, but the Iran situation upgrades energy supply risks, so short - term risk defense is the main focus [15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Inflation expectations may ease, and the bond market gradually has odds. Consider gradually going long on the bond market on the left side [16]. Black Commodities - **Steel**: Short - term long positions in steel should take profits at high prices, and the previous short - straddle strategy should be held. The supply pressure of steel is not large, but the high inventory of rolled steel suppresses prices [18][19]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices of coking coal and coke may be volatile and strong in the short term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. In the medium term, the supply - demand pattern is expected to remain in a wide - range shock [20]. - **Ferroalloys**: For silicon - manganese, it is recommended to wait and see. For silicon - iron, hold the previous short positions. The fundamentals of ferroalloys change little, and the price has limited downward space [21]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Currently, it is advisable to wait and see. Soda ash supply remains high, and glass has both cold - repair and ignition expectations. The industry is affected by geopolitical disputes and energy prices [22]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices will be under pressure and fluctuate due to geopolitical tensions and inflation concerns. In the long term, the fundamentals are favorable, and the supply of raw materials is tight [23][24]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In the short term, it will be in a wide - range shock. The supply is increasing, and the demand growth is limited in the short term, but the long - term lithium - battery demand is still good [25]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It fluctuates, and the downward adjustment space is limited. The previous short - straddle strategy can continue to be held [26]. - **Polysilicon**: It is in a weak shock. Temporarily wait and see. The high inventory and difficult de - stocking are the core contradictions [27]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, it is affected by increased imports and external conflicts, and the price is weak. In the long term, the reduction of cotton supply is beneficial to the upward movement of the price center [29][30]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price has pressure to rebound. The global sugar supply situation is controversial, and the domestic sugar has seasonal production pressure [31][32][33]. - **Eggs**: The short - term spot price is strong, but the supply pressure is large, and the upward space is limited. The futures near - month contract has a high premium [34][35]. - **Apples**: High - quality apple products may continue to be strong, and the market is expected to be stable and strong in the short term [36]. - **Jujubes**: Currently, it is in a weak shock. After the Spring Festival, the consumption enters the off - season, and the high - inventory pattern remains unchanged [37]. - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pattern is supply - strong and demand - weak. The spot price is under pressure, and it is recommended to focus on short - selling near - month contracts [38]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East conflict has increased supply risks, and the market is facing a significant supply reduction. Oil prices are rising [40][41]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows oil prices, and the focus is on the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It is expected to enter a high - level fluctuation [42]. - **Plastics**: The prices of polyolefins are supported in the short term, but the spot atmosphere is weakening, and there may be a small - scale correction [43]. - **Rubber**: Be cautious in unilateral trading. Pay attention to narrowing the price difference and selling put options after full - scale tapping [44]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It is mainly driven by the cost side, with high short - term fluctuations. Overall, wait and see [45][46]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may be strong due to geopolitical factors, but if the war eases, the price may回调 [46]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price has both upward and downward drivers. The long - and short - term logics are clear, and it is necessary to grasp the market rhythm [47]. - **Asphalt**: The industry is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the price follows oil prices [47][48]. - **PVC**: It may be strong in the short term, but there is a risk of回调 if the market sentiment turns bad. The key is the reduction of ethylene supply [48][50]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Consider a cautious long - term strategy, but beware of price callbacks due to the cooling of geopolitical sentiment [51]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: It is expected to remain strong but relatively weaker than crude oil. The supply is at risk, but the demand is increasing [52]. - **Pulp**: The price is under pressure in the short term, but there may be support. Pay attention to inventory and price increases of finished products [53]. - **Logs**: The demand is gradually recovering, and the price is difficult to fall. Pay attention to port inventory and the impact of the US - Iran conflict [53]. - **Urea**: It is expected to open significantly higher. It is recommended to short according to the trend of chemical futures [54].