Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industries. 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short - term, the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Chinese Spring Festival have affected the market. But in the long - term, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged. For stocks, it is recommended to buy on dips; for bonds, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate; for precious metals, maintain a wait - and - see attitude [4][6][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Most non - ferrous metals are expected to fluctuate. Factors such as policy expectations, supply and demand, and inventory levels affect their prices. For example, copper is affected by reserve policies and supply - demand patterns; aluminum is supported by low LME inventory; zinc may be affected by macro sentiment; lead's price stability depends on post - holiday downstream restocking; nickel is under fundamental pressure; tin has supply - demand marginal relaxation; lithium carbonate has uncertain supply - demand after the holiday; alumina is affected by mine strikes and supply overcapacity; stainless steel is supported by fundamentals; and cast aluminum alloy is supported by cost and supply - side factors [12][14][17][18][20][21][22][24][26][28]. - **Black building materials**: The black building materials sector is in a bottom - game stage with multiple factors. Steel products are affected by domestic real - estate policies and overseas monetary policies, and are expected to fluctuate weakly. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly due to supply and demand and inventory factors. Coking coal and coke may face short - term price pressure and potential long - term upward trends. Glass and soda ash are expected to continue to fluctuate, with glass lacking demand support and soda ash having weak demand. Manganese - silicon and silicon - iron are affected by market sentiment and cost factors. Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a supply - demand double - weak situation [31][33][36][37][40][42][45][49][51]. - **Energy and chemicals**: For rubber, it is recommended to reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Crude oil should be taken profit at high prices and mid - term layout should be the main strategy. Methanol should be observed in the short - term. Urea should be short - sold. For pure benzene and styrene, profits can be gradually taken. PVC has a poor fundamental situation. Ethylene glycol has a high inventory pressure. PTA and p - xylene have good mid - term prospects. Polyethylene and polypropylene are affected by supply and demand and cost factors [56][58][61][63][65][68][70][73][75]. - **Agricultural products**: For live pigs, short - term selling on rebounds is recommended, while long - term support should be noted. For eggs, short - term short - selling is recommended, and the long - term situation depends on capacity reduction. For soybean and rapeseed meal, prices are expected to fluctuate. For oils and fats, mid - term bullishness is expected, and buying on dips is recommended. For sugar, wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. For cotton, there is potential for long - term price increase, and low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival should be considered [83][85][88][90][94][97]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial - **Stock Index** - **Market Information**: The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy. SMC's Q4 revenue increased by 4.5% quarter - on - quarter, with a gross margin of 19.2% and a capacity utilization rate of 95.7%. Byte released a new image - generation model. The National Development and Reform Commission promotes the integration of bidding and AI [2]. - **Strategy**: Due to the divergence in US monetary policy expectations and the approaching Spring Festival, the market risk appetite is suppressed. In the long - term, policy support remains, so the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - **Treasury Bonds** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. The central bank will continue the moderately loose monetary policy and conducted a net injection of 2059 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [5]. - **Strategy**: The central bank's policy indicates a loose capital situation. However, the economic recovery foundation is not solid, and the demand is weak. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate [6]. - **Precious Metals** - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices in domestic and international markets declined. The inflation expectations in the US decreased, and the retail sales were stagnant. COMEX silver inventory decreased [7][8]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is cautious, and prices are expected to fluctuate. Fundamentals support the price of gold, and the tight inventory supports the near - month price of silver. It is recommended to wait and see [9]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper** - **Market Information**: US retail sales data affected copper prices. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the import was at a loss [11]. - **Strategy**: Policies and economic data support the sentiment. The supply of copper ore is tight, but the short - term supply is sufficient. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate [12]. - **Aluminum** - **Market Information**: The market volatility decreased before the holiday. Aluminum prices adjusted due to production cuts in Mozambique. Domestic and LME aluminum inventories changed [13]. - **Strategy**: Domestic inventory accumulates, but LME inventory is low. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **Zinc** - **Market Information**: The prices of zinc futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import was at a loss [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The inventory accumulation of zinc ore slows down, and the domestic zinc ingot inventory accumulates. The industry is weak, but macro sentiment may drive the price up [17]. - **Lead** - **Market Information**: The prices of lead futures and spot changed. The inventory increased, and the import had a profit [18]. - **Strategy**: The lead ore inventory is high, and the smelter's operating rate decreases seasonally. The price stability depends on post - holiday restocking [18]. - **Nickel** - **Market Information**: Nickel prices declined slightly. The spot premium and cost remained stable [19]. - **Strategy**: There is a short - term rebound demand, but the fundamentals are under pressure. Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely [20]. - **Tin** - **Market Information**: Tin prices fluctuated narrowly. The supply was restricted by raw materials, and the demand was weak [21]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may rebound with precious metals, but the short - term supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of lithium carbonate increased slightly [22]. - **Strategy**: The pre - holiday capital is cautious. The future supply - demand is uncertain. Lithium prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [22]. - **Alumina** - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The basis and inventory changed [23]. - **Strategy**: The mine strike in Guinea needs attention, and the supply overcapacity persists. It is recommended to wait and see [24]. - **Stainless Steel** - **Market Information**: The price of stainless - steel futures increased slightly. The spot price remained stable, and the inventory increased [26]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure is controllable, and the fundamentals are supported. It is recommended to buy on dips [26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy** - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy futures declined slightly. The inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy**: The cost increases, and the supply - side factors support the price [28]. Black building materials - **Steel** - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures declined. The inventory and position changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a bottom - game stage, affected by domestic and overseas factors. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [31]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Information**: The price of iron - ore futures remained unchanged. The spot price and basis were reported [32]. - **Strategy**: The overseas shipment decreased, the demand was affected by equipment failure, and the inventory was high. Iron - ore prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [33]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined. The spot prices and basis were reported [34]. - **Strategy**: Overseas coal disturbances affect sentiment, and the short - term price upward drive is weak. There may be a long - term upward trend, but beware of post - holiday price corrections [36][37][39]. - **Glass and Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The prices of glass and soda ash futures declined. The inventory and position changed [40][41]. - **Strategy**: Glass lacks demand support, and soda ash has weak demand. Both are expected to continue to fluctuate [40][42]. - **Manganese - silicon and Silicon - iron** - **Market Information**: The price of manganese - silicon futures increased slightly, and that of silicon - iron futures decreased slightly [43]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment and cost factors affect the prices. Pay attention to potential cost - driven events [44][45]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures declined. The supply and demand changed [46][50]. - **Strategy**: Both are in a supply - demand double - weak situation. Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate [49][51]. Energy and chemicals - **Rubber** - **Market Information**: Rubber prices followed the market to rebound. The tire - enterprise operating rate decreased, and the inventory increased [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Reduce risks before the Spring Festival. Trade short - term on the disk and set stop - losses [56]. - **Crude Oil** - **Market Information**: The prices of crude - oil and refined - oil futures increased. The inventory of crude oil and refined oil changed [57]. - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [58]. - **Methanol** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed slightly [59]. - **Strategy**: The current price has factored in many negative factors. Observe in the short - term [61]. - **Urea** - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and the fundamentals are bearish. Short - sell [63]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene** - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired. Gradually take profits [65]. - **PVC** - **Market Information**: The price of PVC futures declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [66][67]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to the changes in capacity and operation [68]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene - glycol futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: The inventory pressure is high, and there is a need for production reduction. There is a risk of rebound [70]. - **PTA** - **Market Information**: The price of PTA futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [71]. - **Strategy**: Enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities [73]. - **p - Xylene** - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The inventory is expected to increase before the maintenance season. Pay attention to mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil [75]. - **Polyethylene (PE) and Polypropylene (PP)** - **Market Information**: The prices of PE and PP futures increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [76][78]. - **Strategy**: PE's valuation has room to decline, and PP's price may bottom out. For PP, buy on dips for the 5 - 9 spread [77][80]. Agricultural products - **Live Pigs** - **Market Information**: The domestic pig prices continued to decline [82]. - **Strategy**: Short - term selling on rebounds, and note the long - term support [83]. - **Eggs** - **Market Information**: The national egg prices were mostly stable with a few declines [84]. - **Strategy**: Short - term short - selling, and the long - term depends on capacity reduction [85]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal** - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The prices are expected to fluctuate [88]. - **Oils and Fats** - **Market Information**: The prices of oil futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [89][90]. - **Strategy**: Mid - term bullish, buy on dips [90]. - **Sugar** - **Market Information**: The price of sugar futures increased slightly. The supply and demand situation changed [91][93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international price to rebound after the northern hemisphere's harvest. Observe domestically [94]. - **Cotton** - **Market Information**: The price of cotton futures increased slightly. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [95][96]. - **Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations, long - term potential for increase. Look for low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [97].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-11燃料油早报 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1. 伊朗局势动荡 2. 中国进口配额下达 1.需求端乐观仍待验证 2.上游端原油承压受挫 每日期货行情 1、基本面：亚洲低硫燃料油市场结构持稳于当前水平附近，在即将到来的农历新年前，充足的供应抵消了下游 船用燃料需求坚挺的利好；亚洲高硫燃料油市场在近期上涨后，因需求温和且供应充足开始降温；中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油424.65美元/吨，基差为174元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为459.12美元/吨，基差为-49元 /吨，现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：新加坡燃料油2月4日当周库存为2552.9万桶，增加95 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-02-11原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2603： 1.基本面：美国总统特朗普表示，正考虑向中东派遣第二艘航母，目前华盛顿与德黑兰正准备重启旨在避免 新冲突的谈判，特朗普在接受以色列媒体采访时表示，若与伊朗无法达成协议，美国将不得不采取"非常强 硬的措施"；美国能源信息署（EIA）发布最新短期能源展望报告，上调今明两年美国石油产量预测，而美国 石油需求预测维持不变，该机构称，在EIA预测的到2027年底的这段时期内，全球石油产量的增长速度预计 将超过需求，从而增加库存并对价格造成压力；中性 2.基差：2月10日，阿曼原油现货价为68.28美元/桶，卡塔尔海 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美股AI担忧重燃，美国零售数据逊色，金价震荡回落；美国三大股指收 盘涨跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益 率跌5.94个基点报4.143%；美元指数涨0.01%报96.86，离岸人民币对美元微幅升值 报6.9143；COMEX黄金期货跌0.62%报5047.90美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货1121.22，现货1118，基差-3.22，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单105072千克，增加1020千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多增；偏多 6、预期：今日关注中国1月CPI和PPI、美国非农就业数据、美国12月营建许可终 值、美联储和欧央行委员讲话。美股AI担忧重燃，美国零售数据逊色，金价回落。 沪金溢价扩大至2.5元/克左右。国内外节假日集中，波动率下降，今日关注非农数 据，金价向上趋势不变。 贵金属早报—— 2026年2月11日 ...

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交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 棉花： 1、基本面：2026新疆棉种植面积调控，预计可能减幅超10%。USDA12月报：25/26年度产量 2608.1万吨，消费2582.3万吨，期末库存1654.1万吨。海关：12月纺织品服装出口259.9亿美 元，同比下降7.4%。12月份我国棉花进口18万吨，同比增加31%；棉纱进口17万吨，同比增加 13.33%。农村部12月25/26年度：产量670万吨，进口140万吨，消费760万吨，期末库存835万 吨。中性。 6：预期：棉花主力05背靠14500横盘整理，短期14500附近支撑较强。春节长假即将到来， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2026年2月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 6、结论：沪镍2603：节前控制仓位，日内交易为主。 2、基差：现货138950，基差5600，偏多 3、库存：LME库存285750，+678，上交所仓单52039，+318，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以下，20均线向下，偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净多，多增，偏多 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格持平，短期镍矿价格上涨，看涨情绪浓重，镍铁价格出现回落，成本线下移， 不锈钢库存持续回升。中性 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格14987.5，基差1162.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：54070，+607，中性 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以下，20均线向上，中性 5、结论：不锈钢2603：节前控制仓位，日内交易为主。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投 ...

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Core Viewpoint - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange (GFEX) announced adjustments to the price limit and margin standards for various futures contracts around the 2026 Spring Festival, effective from February 12, 2026, and will revert to previous levels after the holiday period [1]. Group 1: Adjustments Before and After the Holiday - The price limit for industrial silicon futures will be adjusted to 11%, with speculative margin set at 13% and hedging margin at 12% [1]. - The price limit for polysilicon futures will be adjusted to 12%, while both speculative and hedging margins will remain unchanged [1]. - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 15%, with speculative margin at 17% and hedging margin at 16% [1]. - The price limit for platinum and palladium futures will be adjusted to 24%, with both speculative and hedging margins set at 26% [1]. Group 2: Post-Holiday Adjustments - After the holiday, on the first trading day without a price limit on the largest contracts, the price limits and margin standards for industrial silicon, polysilicon, platinum, and palladium will revert to pre-adjustment levels [1]. - The price limit for lithium carbonate futures will be adjusted to 13%, with speculative margin at 15% and hedging margin at 14% [1][2]. Group 3: Execution Standards - GFEX stated that if the adjusted price limits and margin standards differ from the current ones, the higher of the two will be enforced [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose with stable domestic oil and fat supply. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to受挫 exports. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral with improving demand. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic oil and fat fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventory. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in December decreased 5.46% month - on - month to 1829800 tons, exports increased 8.55% month - on - month to 1316500 tons, and end - of - month inventory increased 7.59% month - on - month to 3050600 tons. The report is slightly bearish with inventory data exceeding expectations. Current shipping survey agencies show that Malaysian palm oil export data in January increased 29% month - on - month, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8400, with a basis of 302, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.02 million tons, down 60,000 tons from the previous 1.08 million tons, a month - on - month decrease, but up 14.7% year - on - year. [2] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract decreased. [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7900 - 8300. [2] 3.2 Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, but the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8960, with a basis of 20, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the port inventory of palm oil was 736,000 tons, up 2200 tons from the previous 733,800 tons, a month - on - month increase and up 46% year - on - year. [3] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [3] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main palm oil contract turned to short positions. [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8700 - 9100. [3] 3.3 Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report on Malaysian palm oil in December is slightly bearish, and the supply pressure will decrease in the subsequent production - reducing season with a 29% month - on - month increase in January export data. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9900, with a basis of 804, indicating the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On January 9th, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 250,000 tons, down 20,000 tons from the previous 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease and down 44% year - on - year. [4] - **Market Chart**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, while the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased. [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8900 - 9300. [4] 3.4 Recent Bullish and Bearish Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: The US soybean stock - to - sales ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply. [5] - **Bearish Factors**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and domestic oil and fat inventories are continuously accumulating. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose. [5]