核心观 点 ： 2025Q1 总量业绩增速回升转正，科技与部分顺周期业绩占优，新兴科技与两重两新 是最清晰的景气线索。成长板块资本开支提速，科技与周期经营现金流修复明显 。 摘要 ▶ 总量增速回升转正，科技成长业绩占优。 全 A 非金融石油石化（全 A 两非）归母净利润 增速在 2024Q4 继续探底，但在后续的 2025Q1 转正，控费带动净利率回升是一季度盈利增速回升的主要因 素，但周转率仍有下行压力。结构上，一季度景气线索清晰，具备新兴产业趋势的 AI 硬件业绩增速居 前，顺经济周期链条中"两重两新"落地扩容带动了汽车 / 家电 / 工程机械的业绩增长，供给受限的有色 / 化工增速居前。此外，非银受益资本市场活跃，业绩增速也改善明显。 ▶ 总量增速改善，成长与中小盘修复明显。 1 ）盈利增速： 2024 年全 A 两非营收同比 -0.8% ，净利 润同比 -14.0% 。利润表拆分看，毛利率走弱与费用率上升共同拖累净利率。但 2025Q1 全 A 两非净 利润同比 +4.7% ，较 2024 全年明显改善，主要因为费用率的大幅下行与毛利率止跌企稳带动的净利 率回升。一季度各板块增速分化明显，创业板大幅修 ...

Group 1: Overall A Performance - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares showed a slight recovery, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 4.2% respectively, compared to significant declines in Q4 2024 of -15.1% and -47.2% [8][9][12] - The return on equity (ROE) continued to decline, reaching 7.8% in Q1 2025, down from 7.9% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decrease in asset turnover rate [8][10][11] - The computer, agriculture, and steel industries led profit growth in Q1 2025, while real estate, coal, and military industries lagged behind [12][15] Group 2: Fund Quarterly Report - Active equity public funds increased their positions and reduced redemptions, with stock positions for ordinary equity, mixed equity, and flexible allocation funds at 89.36%, 88.17%, and 76.70% respectively, showing slight increases from Q4 2024 [16][18][20] - The total redemption for active equity public funds in Q1 2025 was 72.3 billion, a significant decrease of 67.0% compared to 218.9 billion in Q4 2024 [16][18] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing sectors saw increased allocations, while financial real estate and cyclical sectors were reduced [20][22] Group 3: Policy Insights - The focus of the Political Bureau meeting was on stabilizing internal confidence, with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at accelerating the use of existing tools [30] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a shift in policy framework [30] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report maintains an optimistic view on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of observing volume and price during the market observation period, with a focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency [7] - Key sectors for domestic demand include media, food and beverage, real estate, transportation, automotive, and agriculture, with specific trends noted in each [7] - The self-sufficiency strategy is driven by the strategic competition in the technology sector between China and the US, leading to a restructuring of the domestic industrial chain [7]

Group 1 - The market is expected to continue showing a warming risk appetite and thematic rotation, focusing on low institutional holdings and trading opportunities [2] - The overall market is currently in a narrow fluctuation range, and investors are advised to adopt a low-buy high-sell strategy within this range [3] - Domestic policies are entering an observation period, with a focus on internal demand and technology sectors as key investment themes [4] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to boost "Chinese assets," with AI+ becoming a significant investment theme in May [5] - Consumption and technology are both seen as growth directions, with a preference for technology investments due to their relative low position [6] - Defensive strategies are recommended, with a focus on bonds and dividend assets, as well as potential opportunities in safe-haven assets like gold and military [7] Group 3 - The consumption data during the May Day holiday showed significant recovery, driven by extended holiday time and favorable policies [10] - The market outlook for May suggests a continuation of the fluctuation pattern, with an emphasis on independent industry trends and policy expectations [10]

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has announced the trading schedule for the May Day holiday, with the market reopening on May 6 after a five-day break [1] - The investigation of CSRC Vice Chairman Wang Jianjun has raised concerns among investors, although the number of new stocks is expected to increase this year compared to last year, potentially leading to a rise in the total market capitalization of A-shares [1] - There are existing loopholes in the investment protection system, allowing some companies to manipulate stock prices and evade responsibilities through delisting [1] Group 2 - Despite the A-shares missing out on the recent bullish trends in global markets during the holiday, there is an expectation for a rebound in the A-share market post-holiday [3] - The current market is seen as being in a late stage, with a gradual stabilization expected, supported by sectors such as banking, real estate, and electricity [5] - The performance of the securities sector is critical for the overall market stability and upward movement, as its rebound has been below market expectations [6] Group 3 - The A-share market's performance after the holiday remains uncertain, and market participants are advised to observe the developments closely [7]

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market experienced significant gains, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 1.74% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 3.08% [1] - Chinese assets are witnessing a substantial surge, particularly in the Hang Seng Tech Index and Hang Seng Healthcare Index, indicating a broader market recovery [3] - The A-share market is perceived to lag behind Hong Kong stocks, especially in sectors like technology, which are predominantly represented in the Hong Kong market [3] Group 2 - A-share market is expected to restart a bull market after a seven-month consolidation, with a belief that the market will rise significantly, particularly in the second half of the year [5] - The market is currently at a pivotal point, with a potential for a rally if key sectors such as liquor, securities, and real estate see significant gains [5] - There is an expectation that funds will return to the equity market, prioritizing Hong Kong stocks before A-shares catch up [5] Group 3 - The sentiment in the market is heavily influenced by emotions, with smaller investors often engaging in speculative behavior, which can lead to poor decision-making [7] - Investors are advised to maintain patience and focus on long-term strategies rather than reacting impulsively to market fluctuations [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the increasing preference for defensive assets, particularly the Hong Kong dividend low volatility ETF (520550), which has seen continuous net inflows for nine weeks and a nearly 6% increase in fund size year-to-date, reaching a historical peak [3] - The structural differences in high dividend assets between A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are noted, with A-shares concentrated in traditional industries like coal, banking, and textiles, while Hong Kong's high dividend sectors are more diversified, including real estate, public transport, and construction [3] - The defensive nature of dividend assets is emphasized, showing significant excess returns during market downturns, although absolute returns remain positively correlated with overall market trends [3] Group 2 - The Hong Kong dividend low volatility ETF (520550) is designed to optimize investment experience through a low management fee of 0.2%, monthly dividend distribution, and T+0 trading to enhance liquidity [4] - The ETF focuses on mature industry leaders in finance and energy, with strict weight limits on individual stocks to avoid "dividend traps," creating a balanced investment portfolio [4] - Analysts suggest that in the current complex market environment, Hong Kong dividend assets with valuation advantages and dividend certainty may become a key strategic allocation choice, especially as the interconnectivity between mainland and Hong Kong markets deepens [4]

今日的A股，三大指数没跌多少，上证指数翻红的时候，依旧有4000家股票下跌，有50家股票跌停板，远离股票不是博主的一句空话，而是救命。 一直以来，反复劝说远离股票，怒其不争，哀其不幸。目前的上证指数是3300点，而不是2300点。大家亏损与大盘指数有什么关系，上证指数年线只有 1.7%的跌幅，随时可以翻红。 不用等3点了！ 不出意外，下午的指数会翻红收盘，只是与股民有什么关系？我们指数玩家，只关心指数涨跌，就算以后都是4000家，3000家股票下跌，与我们何干！ 是大盘指数跌了，还是权重行业跌了？目前的情况很明朗，小盘股，绩差股熬不过这次的经济周期了，只有金融、权重、指数可以穿越牛熊…… 汇金有央行为后盾，只要跌了就可以增持宽基ETF，大家持股有谁增持吗？汇金买错了也不买中小盘股票，小凡也是如此，我闭眼都不会参与中小盘股票。 银行护盘，白酒也没有跌，上证指数随时翻红。后面的行情就是地产、证券的补涨了，地产的回调很理性，没有急跌就没的报复性反弹。 大概率会探底回升 大概率会反弹，个人依旧认为会3连涨，只是与股民没有关系，一个指数玩家的观点，请不要用来炒作股票！大家的逻辑不同，指数不会跌多少，也不会 ST，更不会 ...

回溯过去20年，基金重仓股经历了银行、地产等周期为王的时代，以及白酒和制造业强势的时代，逐步 演进到现在科技主导的时代。 如果说股市是经济的晴雨表，基金重仓股则是产业发展的风向标。基金重仓股的变动，折射了产业发 展，折射了时代变迁。 周期为王 至今依然是顶峰 对于2005年至2007年牛市的亲历者来说，那是一段萦绕脑海的美好回忆。 回溯过去20年，基金重仓股经历了银行与地产等周期为王的时代，以及白酒和制造业强势的时代，逐步 演进到科技主导的时代。如果说股市是经济的晴雨表，基金重仓股则是产业发展的风向标。基金重仓股 的变动，折射了产业发展，折射了时代变迁 ◎记者 赵明超 近日披露的公募基金一季报显示，截至今年一季度末，腾讯控股首次成为基金头号重仓股，终结了此前 数年的贵州茅台和宁德时代的"二人转"，成为公募基金的最爱。 从2010年开始，随着智能手机产业链的爆发，电子产业迎来"黄金十年"，迅速成为市场最为关注的投资 方向之一。2019年以来，光伏、新能源成为基金经理布局的重要方向。同上述主线相伴的是消费升级方 向，在经济高速发展背景下，民众对美好生活的追求显现，家电板块持续走强。而持续走强的高端白酒 板块，让张 ...

以下文章来源于36氪财经 ，作者丁卯 郑怀舟 36氪财经 . 36氪旗下官方账号。洞见市场，比99%的投资者更聪明。 政策定调进一步增强中国资产韧性。 文 ｜ 丁卯 编辑 ｜ 郑怀舟 来源｜ 36氪财经（ID：krfinance） 封面来源 ｜ 视觉中国 本周，在海外关税担忧继续缓解叠加央行超额续作MLF向市场注入中期流动性的双重利好下，市场整体处于快速波动后的弱平衡阶段，大盘延续了震荡反 弹走势。各宽基指数多数上涨，整体来看，小盘股和中盘股的修复略好于大盘股，但板块轮动和分化依旧加速。周内，主要宽基指数中，上证指数上涨 0.56%；深证成指上涨1.38%；创业板指上涨1.74%；中证1000上涨1.85%；中证2000上涨2.71%。 行业板块上，本周31个申万一级行业涨多跌少，其中24个实现上涨，7个出现下跌。涨幅排名前三为，汽车、美容护理、基础化工；涨幅排名落后的为食 品饮料、地产和煤炭。概念板块上，周内wind热门概念中表现较好的为PEEK材料、光通信、射频及天线等。 政策积极定调， 后续市场机会与风险并存 本周，中央政治局会议召开，明确提出了要"持续稳定和活跃资本市场"，而且周内央行加码MLF向市场 ...

//一 周头条// // 国内投资要闻 // 1 . 投资者押注市场复苏，杠杆股票ETF受到欢迎 。 4月杠杆股票交易所交易基金（ETF）流入量激增，因为一些投资者寻求在市场从关税引发 的抛售中复苏时获得更大的收益。 根据LSEG Lipper的数据，本月迄今为止，杠杆股票基金已获得109.5亿美元的资金流入，已超过上个月创下 的92亿美元的五年高点。 此前的峰值出现在2020年3月，当时市场受到新冠疫情危机的重创。 2. 英国金融行为监管局寻求简化投资公司的资本规则 。英国金融行为监管局正在寻求简化有关投资公司必须持有的基金规则，以吸收损失并保持在 低迷市场的韧性，拟议的改革可能会将繁琐的程序减少多达70%。该监管机构目前正在修改英国金融业的监管规定，以促进其增长和竞争力。该机 构表示，简化欧盟衍生的金融工具市场指令（MiFID）规则的提议将减少投资公司在解释和应用要求上花费的时间和资源。 // 本周市场 // 01 本周主要股指及行业回顾 4月25日，A股横盘整理，电力股领涨，地产股午后跳水。本周，上证指数涨0.56%，深证成指涨1.38%，创业板指涨1.74%。 1 . 中共中央政治局会议： 适时降准降 ...