2026 年 01 月 26 日 二手房成交量价齐升 宏观研究团队 ——宏观经济专题 何宁（分析师） 郭晓彬（分析师） hening@kysec.cn guoxiaobin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525070004 供需：开年建筑开工转暖，工业开工有韧性，需求仍弱 1.建筑开工：开工率季节性位置整体回升。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日）， 水泥发运率、磨机运转率高于 2025 年同期，石油沥青装置开工率处于同期历史 低位。基建项目水泥直供量同比降幅仍大，房建水泥用量则接近 2025 年同期。 资金方面，2026 开年建筑工地资金到位率同比低于 2025 年同期。 2.工业生产端，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化表现较弱。最近两周（1 月 11 日至 1 月 24 日），工业开工出现分化，化工与汽车钢胎开工表现偏强，焦化 表现较弱。化工链中 PX 开工率维持历史高位，PTA 开工率处于历史中低位，汽 车钢胎开工率处于同期历史中高位，焦化企业开工率降至历史低位。 3.需求端，建筑需求仍弱，汽车、家电销售仍弱。最近两周(1 月 10 日至 1 月 23 日)，螺纹钢、线材、建材表观需 ...

Group 1 - The core message of the news is the introduction of measures to boost consumption and expand two-way investment in 2026, following a stable performance in 2025, with a focus on enhancing the supply levels in various sectors such as culture, entertainment, tourism, and healthcare [4][5][6] - In 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 50.1 trillion yuan, marking a 3.7% year-on-year increase, with consumption contributing 52% to economic growth, an increase of 5 percentage points [4][5] - The service retail sector saw a year-on-year growth of 5.5%, with significant increases in cultural, recreational, and travel services, indicating a strong recovery in service consumption [5][6] Group 2 - The foreign trade sector demonstrated resilience, with total imports and exports reaching 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, and the number of active trading entities exceeding 780,000 [6][7] - In 2025, over 70,000 new foreign-funded enterprises were established, with foreign investment amounting to 747.69 billion yuan, of which 32.3% was in high-tech industries [6][8] - The Belt and Road Initiative saw trade with partner countries reach 23.6 trillion yuan, a 6.3% increase, contributing to 51.9% of total trade, highlighting the expanding cooperation in various sectors [9][10]

Core Insights - The National Taxation Administration of China reports that by 2025, the consumer market will showcase new highlights driven by targeted policies, with significant demand in home appliances, smartphones, and new energy vehicles [1][4] - The "old-for-new" policy has effectively stimulated mass consumption, particularly in the new energy vehicle sector, which has seen both sales volume and revenue growth [1][3] Group 1: Consumer Trends - Home appliance consumption is on the rise, with retail sales of refrigerators, gas stoves, and smartphones increasing by 17.4%, 12.9%, and 18.6% year-on-year, respectively [1] - New energy vehicle sales and revenue are projected to grow by 24.3% and 21.1% year-on-year in 2025, reflecting a shift towards green consumption [1][3] Group 2: Digital Empowerment - The integration of technologies like AI and VR into daily life is enhancing diverse consumer needs, with internet service platforms and food delivery services seeing revenue growth of 9.4% and 13.3% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Digital cultural services, including gaming and animation, are expected to grow by 16.6% year-on-year, indicating a robust potential in this sector [2] Group 3: Cultural and Sports Consumption - The cultural tourism sector is experiencing revitalization, with revenue from artistic performances increasing by 17.3% year-on-year, and travel-related services seeing growth of 11.2% to 26.1% [2][3] - The sports and health industry is also thriving, with sports exhibition services and health management services growing by 12.2% and 16.5% year-on-year, respectively [3] Group 4: Senior and Childcare Services - The aging population is driving demand for elder care services, with revenue from elder care and related services increasing by 24.9% and 23.1% year-on-year [3] - Childcare services are also expanding, with nursery services seeing a year-on-year growth of 5.4% [3] Group 5: Inbound Consumption - The implementation of measures to enhance the outbound tax refund process has led to a 305% increase in the number of foreign travelers claiming refunds, with sales of tax refund goods rising by 95.9% [4] - The number of stores offering tax refund services has reached 12,930, with over 7,000 providing "buy and refund" services [4]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's economy demonstrated resilience amidst complex domestic and international environments, achieving a GDP growth of 5.0% and maintaining its position as the world's second-largest economy [1][2][3] Economic Performance - The industrial added value for large-scale industries increased by 5.9% year-on-year, while total goods import and export rose by 3.8% [2] - Final consumption expenditure contributed over 50% to economic growth, with real per capita disposable income growing by 5.0%, aligning with overall economic growth [2] Government Initiatives - The Chinese government implemented various economic stimulus measures, including a trade-in policy for consumer goods, which significantly boosted retail sales [2][3] - The government's focus on innovation and high-quality development has led to increased contributions from domestic consumption and foreign trade to economic growth [3] Technological Advancements - R&D expenditure intensity reached 2.8%, surpassing the OECD average for the first time, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [4] - China made significant strides in advanced technology sectors, with notable growth in the production of civilian drones (37.3%), 3D printing equipment (52.5%), industrial robots (28.0%), and new energy vehicles (25.1%) [4] Global Economic Impact - China's economic growth is projected to contribute approximately 30% to global economic growth, reinforcing its role as a stable and reliable driver of the world economy [7] - International organizations have raised their growth forecasts for China, reflecting confidence in the effectiveness of the government's economic measures [3][7] Innovation and Sustainability - China is rapidly advancing in green technologies, including electric vehicles and solar panels, which are becoming increasingly popular in various countries [6] - The focus on integrating artificial intelligence with various sectors is driving digital transformation and improving public service levels [5][6]

人民日报记者 罗珊珊 1月26日，国务院新闻办举行新闻发布会，介绍2025年商务工作及运行情况，部署2026年提振消 费、拓展双向投资等方面举措。 "刚刚过去的2025年是很不平凡的一年。我们迎难而上、奋力拼搏，商务发展总体平稳、稳中有 进。"商务部副部长鄢东在会上表示。 提升文化娱乐、旅游休闲、餐饮住宿、体育赛事、医疗健康等领域供给水平 服务消费具有消费频次高、乘数效应强、增长可持续等特点，在扩大内需、增进民生福祉中发挥着 重要的作用。2025年，居民人均服务性消费支出同比增长4.5%，占居民人均消费支出的比重为46.1%。 下一步，商务部将继续实施服务消费提质惠民行动，会同相关部门推动提升文化娱乐、旅游休闲、餐饮 住宿、体育赛事、医疗健康等领域的供给水平。 在商品消费方面，扩围提质实施消费品以旧换新，汽车、家电、手机等相关产品销售额2.61万亿 元，惠及3.66亿人次。在服务消费方面，开展服务消费提质惠民行动，全年服务零售额同比增长5.5%， 文体休闲、旅游咨询租赁、交通出行等服务零售额保持两位数增长。在创新消费场景方面，开展国际化 消费环境建设试点，优化离境退税政策，离境退税商品销售额增长近一倍。240 ...

Market Overview - On January 26, the market experienced a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.09%, the Shenzhen Component Index down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index decreasing by 0.91%[4] - The total trading volume on January 26 was 3.28 trillion, an increase of approximately 160 billion compared to the previous trading day[1] Sector Performance - Over half of the sectors saw declines, with non-ferrous metals, coal, and oil sectors leading in gains, while military, automotive, electronics, and social services sectors faced the largest declines[1] - The semiconductor and aerospace sectors, which had previously seen significant gains, experienced notable declines, indicating a rare phenomenon of widespread losses in technology sectors since the beginning of the year[1][2] Regulatory Impact - The primary reason for the market adjustment is attributed to regulatory measures aimed at cooling down the market, particularly following rapid increases in sectors like commercial aerospace[2] - Significant sell orders were observed in large-cap stocks, reflecting the regulatory intent to maintain market stability[2] Fundraising and Investment Trends - In the last week of January, 43 new funds were launched, with equity funds remaining the dominant category, indicating strong investor interest in the market[12] - Since the beginning of the year, 76 new funds have been established, raising a total of 71.94 billion, with an average fund size of 9.47 billion[13] Consumer Trends - In 2025, household appliances, mobile phones, and new energy vehicles showed significant growth, with sales of household appliances increasing by 17.4%, mobile phones by 18.6%, and new energy vehicles by 24.3%[7] - The elderly care services sector also saw substantial growth, with spending on elderly care and nursing home services increasing by 24.9% and 15.4%, respectively[11]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive outlook on the food and beverage sector, recommending leading companies in snacks and condiments [7][9]. Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in retail sales growth, with December's year-on-year growth at 0.9%, down 0.4 percentage points from November, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [8]. - The food and beverage sector shows positive signals, particularly for Moutai, which is expected to maintain stable pricing due to supply-side constraints and increasing demand [9][10]. - The report anticipates that service consumption will be the main growth driver for 2026, with an expected overall consumption growth rate of 5.1% [8]. Industry Size - The industry comprises 1,216 stocks, with a total market capitalization of 17,809.1 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 16,466.7 billion [3]. Performance Metrics - The absolute performance over 1 month, 6 months, and 12 months is 4.4%, 7.0%, and 27.3% respectively, while the relative performance is 3.4%, -7.1%, and 4.5% [5]. Sector Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in various sectors, including: - Food and beverage: Emphasis on Moutai and other snack brands [9]. - Textile: Anticipation of a turnaround for Li Ning in 2026 [13][14]. - E-commerce: Positive outlook on Alibaba due to its cloud business growth potential [24]. - Agriculture: Continued recommendation of leading pig farming companies and attention to planting policy catalysts [30]. Specific Company Insights - Moutai is expected to see stable pricing and growth in demand, with a focus on core products [9]. - Li Ning is actively launching new products and expanding its retail presence, aiming for a rebound in 2026 [13][14]. - Alibaba's cloud business is projected to accelerate growth driven by AI advancements [24]. - The agricultural sector is advised to focus on leading pig farming companies and the implications of planting policies [30].

生产厂家订单不断，商家销售也迎来旺季。随着2026年新一轮消费品以旧换新补贴政策的落地实施，市民选购的积极性高涨。 央视网消息：近段时间冷空气频繁，江苏多地迎来雨雪天气。在江苏邳州市，围绕"御寒保暖"的消费需求，各类消费场景在持续升 温。 在江苏邳州一家企业的生产车间内，工人们正赶制一批湖北的取暖器订单。近年来，企业转换思路升级产线，将新型制热材料技术 与当地生态家居产业相结合，推出各种取暖产品近10类，地暖、墙暖、发热鼠标垫、取暖画等产品受到消费者的青睐。 消费者张家森表示，正好有"国补"，店里边营业员给介绍一款，补贴完也就7000多元，能便宜1000多元，感觉比较合适。 邳州市某商场经理魏雷介绍，取暖设施尤其空调这一块，销售额增长幅度在23%到27%之间，整体增长幅度还是比较理想的。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government aims to enhance consumer spending, targeting a 5 percentage point increase in the contribution of consumption to economic growth by 2025, with a retail sales target of 50.1 trillion yuan, reflecting a 3.7% year-on-year growth [7][8]. Group 1: Policy Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce plans to implement a dual approach of "policy + activities" to stimulate consumption, focusing on enhancing supply in cultural, entertainment, tourism, and healthcare sectors [7][9]. - Specific policies include optimizing the "trade-in" program for consumer goods and promoting automotive consumption through pilot reforms [9][10]. Group 2: Consumption Activities - Over 20 "Buy in China" themed events will be organized, alongside city-specific activities to create a vibrant consumption atmosphere [9][10]. - The service sector is expected to see a 5.5% increase in retail sales, with significant growth in leisure, tourism, and transportation services [7][9]. Group 3: International Trade and Investment - In 2025, China's total goods import and export reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a 3.8% increase, with over 780,000 active trading entities [10][11]. - The government aims to attract foreign investment by expanding market access and supporting foreign enterprises in various economic activities [11][12]. Group 4: Global Economic Engagement - China has signed 24 free trade agreements with 31 countries, covering 45% of its total goods trade, and is actively participating in global economic cooperation initiatives [12][14]. - The "Belt and Road" initiative has led to a 6.3% increase in trade with partner countries, highlighting China's commitment to international collaboration [12][13].

Core Insights - Guangdong's total deposits in domestic and foreign currencies are projected to reach 38.7 trillion yuan by the end of 2025, just shy of the 40 trillion mark, significantly outpacing Jiangsu by 10.82 trillion yuan [1] - The GDP of Guangdong is expected to be 14.58 trillion yuan in 2025, maintaining its position as the largest economy in China for 37 consecutive years, despite a modest growth rate of 3.9% [2][3] Economic Indicators - **Population Scale**: Guangdong has a resident population of 127 million, with a real-time population of 150 million, leading the nation. The province has over 30 million migrant workers, accounting for about 25% of its resident population [5] - **Business Environment**: By the end of 2025, Guangdong is expected to have over 20.37 million registered business entities, representing about 10% of the national total [6] - **Financial Sector**: Guangdong's financial institutions are projected to hold 38.72 trillion yuan in deposits by the end of 2025, maintaining a significant lead over other provinces [8] - **Foreign Trade**: In 2025, Guangdong's total goods trade import and export volume is expected to reach 9.49 trillion yuan, contributing 24.1% to the national foreign trade increment [9] - **Fiscal Revenue**: The local general public budget revenue for Guangdong is projected to be 1.3939 trillion yuan in 2025, marking a 3% increase and maintaining the top position in the country for 35 years [10] - **Capital Market**: Guangdong is expected to have 1,224 listed companies by the end of 2025, with a total market capitalization exceeding 30.75 trillion yuan, indicating a strong wealth creation capacity [11] - **Industry Clusters**: Guangdong has formed nine trillion-yuan industry clusters, including new-generation electronic information and green petrochemicals, showcasing its industrial strength [12][14]