Core Viewpoint - Tengyuan Cobalt's profitability has significantly improved due to the gradual release of production capacity from domestic and international projects, leading to substantial revenue and profit growth in 2024 [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, Tengyuan Cobalt achieved an operating income of 6.542 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.02%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 685 million yuan, up 81.24% [1]. - The net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses was 671 million yuan, reflecting an increase of 83.39% year-on-year [1]. - The sales volume of cobalt, nickel, and lithium products saw significant year-on-year growth of 22.8%, 658.92%, and 1368.38%, respectively, while copper sales volume increased by 11.55% [2]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Projects - The company has invested 1.101 billion yuan in its IPO fundraising projects, achieving a progress rate of 64.84% [2]. - Tengyuan Cobalt plans to establish a joint venture in Hong Kong to develop a copper mining project in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with an investment of 980 million yuan (approximately 136 million USD) [3]. - The new project aims to build a hydrometallurgical plant with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons of copper and 2,000 tons of cobalt, with a projected internal rate of return of 35.01% after tax [3]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Outlook - The expansion of production capacity through new projects is expected to enhance the company's economies of scale and competitiveness in the global cobalt and copper markets [3]. - Despite the strong performance in 2024, the company reported a decline in revenue and net profit in the first quarter of 2025, with operating income of 1.461 billion yuan, down 3.59% year-on-year, and net profit of 123 million yuan, down 14.27% [2].

【铝&氧化铝】 今日沪铝跟随有色整体反弹,现货升贴水暂稳，华东升水60元,华南升水20元。过去一周铝锭铝棒社库下降5.1 万吨和3万吨,总库存处于近年同期最低水平,五一节前备货和抢出口需求带动去库加速。沪铝短期基本面偏 强,测试两万关口阻力,但美国关税谈判和全球需求前景并不乐观,旺季过后消费环比面临回落,沪铝反弹高 度将受限。4月氧化铝厂集中检修阶段性彩响产量,近日现货成交价在2800-2900元区域暂时止跌企稳，但多数 企业将在检修后恢复生产,难改长期过利格局,盈加近30万吨的仓单库存限制氧化铝反弹高度,震荡中连高偏 空参与为主。 国技期货 | | 操作评级 | 2025年04月21日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | ★☆☆ | 肖静 首席分析师 | | | | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 铝 | ☆☆☆ | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 氧化铝 | ななな | | | | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | 锌 | ★☆★ | | | 铝 | | 吴江 高级分析师 | | | ☆☆☆ | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镍及不锈钢 ★☆☆ | ...

1、现货市场：日照嘉吉一级豆油 8090 元/吨，较上一交易涨 90 元/吨。 2、宏观：特朗普时期的"对等关税"政策通过重塑全球贸易流、产业链定价权及市场风险 偏好，对期货市场形成了系统性冲击。 3、市场分析：当前时间窗口下，正处美豆播种与南美豆收割、出口季，目前巴西豆收割基 本完成。总体来看，南美新作丰产格局或将大概率成为事实。后市豆油中期新增供给与下 游需求或维持中性，豆油中期库存或维持整理。 4、参考观点：豆油 2509 合约，短线或面临整理。 现货信息：43 豆粕各地区现货报价：张家港 3170（50）、天津 3650（60）、日照 3320（120）。 市场分析：（1）宏观面: 中美关税政策引发市场恐慌，市场担忧美农产品出口因此遭到影 响。 （2）国际大豆：巴西大豆收割接近尾声，关注最终产量。加征关税背景下，美豆出口悲观 预期仍存。 （3）国内豆粕供需面：近期豆粕供应依旧偏紧，巴西大豆预期 4 月中下旬到港， 5-7 月大 豆到港预计超千万吨。下游养殖企业库存低位，豆粕成交小幅提振。油厂豆粕库存维持中 性。 参考观点：多重因素共振，豆粕短线或区间震荡。 现货信息：东北三省及内蒙重点深加工企业新玉米 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not contain information about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A - share market shows mixed trends, with the real - estate chain being active and some sectors affected by policies and international news [2][3]. - The bond market is in a state of waiting for direction, with potential for a rebound after short - term adjustments [7]. - The precious metals market has seen a decline due to factors such as the European Central Bank's interest rate cut, but gold still has upward potential in the long - term [8][9]. - The shipping index market is in a state of shock, with suggestions to consider widening the spread between different contracts [12][13]. - The non - ferrous metals market presents different trends for each metal, with factors such as supply, demand, and tariffs influencing prices [20][22][23]. - The black metals market shows that steel production has peaked, and the iron ore market is in a state of shock [36][38][40]. - The agricultural products market has different situations for each product, such as the pressure on soybean meal prices and the shock of corn prices [53][55][60]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Thursday, A - share major indices mostly rose, with the real - estate chain being active. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and all had basis discounts. The market is affected by domestic and overseas news, and it is recommended to sell put options on the CSI 300 and CSI 1000 [2][3][5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures closed down across the board, and bond yields generally rose. It is expected that the bond market will have the potential to stabilize and rebound after short - term adjustments, and it is recommended to go long on dips and participate in basis and curve strategies [6][7]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices fell due to the European Central Bank's interest rate cut and reduced risk aversion. Gold has long - term upward drivers, and it is recommended to use high - throw and low - suck strategies in the short - term and sell out - of - the - money put options for profit protection [8][9]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index is in a state of shock. Spot supply and demand are still cold, and it is recommended to widen the spread between the August and June contracts and pay attention to the rebound opportunities of the June and August contracts [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It shows a combination of "strong reality and weak expectation". The price is affected by tariffs and fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 76000 - 77000 pressure level [14][20]. - **Zinc**: There is still an expectation of loose supply, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term, with the main contract focusing on the 20500 - 21500 support level [20][22]. - **Tin**: With a weak macro - environment and gradually recovering supply, it is recommended to hold short positions and take a short - selling approach on rebounds [23][26]. - **Nickel**: After the implementation of the Indonesian policy, the market is in a state of shock. The cost has certain support, and the main contract is expected to operate between 120000 - 126000 [26][28]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is still macro - uncertainty, and the market is in a state of weak shock, with the main contract expected to operate between 12600 - 13000 [29][31]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market has digested the tariff news, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the main contract referring to 6.8 - 7.2 million [32][35]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel production has peaked, and the demand in the second quarter is expected to weaken. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the domestic loose policy and the spread between steel and ore [36][38]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron water output remains high, and the port inventory is decreasing. The market is expected to fluctuate, and the impact of terminal demand and exports needs to be observed [39][40]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the supply - demand situation has improved marginally. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [41][43]. - **Coking Coal**: The spot market is stable, but there is still a risk of decline. It is recommended to go long on coke and short on coking coal [43][46]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply and demand are both decreasing, and the cost is stable. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][48]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the mainstream steel procurement pricing, and the inventory pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean meal basis is strong, and the US soybean lacks the driving force to rise. The operation should be cautious [53][55]. - **Pigs**: The secondary fattening transaction has declined, and the consumption support is insufficient. The futures price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 14000 - 14800 [56][57]. - **Corn**: The market trading is light, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [58][60]. - **Sugar**: The raw sugar price fluctuates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a high - level shock - weak pattern [61]. - **Cotton**: The US cotton is bottom - oscillating, and the domestic cotton price is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [63].

Core Viewpoint - Zhuzhou Smelter Group Co., Ltd. reported a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of approximately 4.803 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.50%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of approximately 283 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 112.94% [2][3] Company Overview - Zhuzhou Smelter Group is a large state-owned enterprise primarily engaged in the smelting, processing, and sales of non-ferrous metals, particularly zinc and lead, and is a leading zinc smelting company in China [2] - The company has advanced wet and pyrometallurgical zinc smelting processes and has a high resource utilization rate by recovering precious metals from smelting waste [2] - The company produces zinc alloys and hot-dip galvanized alloys for applications in automotive, battery, and construction sectors, maintaining a leading market share in domestic zinc products [2] Performance Drivers - The increase in Q1 performance is attributed to high prices of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by factors such as interest rate expectations in developed economies, geopolitical risks, and industrial demand growth [3] - The company has enhanced its profitability through mining and sourcing raw materials for precious metal refining, significantly increasing unit value and profit contribution [3] - The acquisition of Shuikoushan Mine has transformed the resource base into a profit source, and the technical upgrade project at Kangjiabao Mine has further released advanced production capacity [3] Operational Efficiency - The company has focused on meticulous cost control and process optimization, effectively maintaining low impurity levels in products and reducing unit production costs through technical improvements in smelting electricity consumption [3][4] - The domestic zinc product market demand is robust, and the company has adjusted its production strategy to meet high-quality zinc ingot demand, achieving premium sales [4] - The combination of precious metal business growth, accelerated mining capacity release, and internal cost reduction efforts has significantly contributed to the company's performance growth [4]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. Group 2: Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean oil 2509 contract may be consolidation [1] - The short - term trend of soybean meal may be range - bound due to multiple factors [2] - The short - term corn futures price will range - bound, with a range - trading approach [3] - For copper, maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4] - The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may be weakly volatile, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [5][6] - For steel, consider a low - level long - buying approach as macro negatives are digested [7] - Coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited space [8] - The short - term trend of iron ore 2505 is mainly oscillatory [9] - For WTI crude oil, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/barrel for INE crude oil [10] - For rubber, pay attention to the downstream start - up situation, with support near 14000 yuan/ton [11] - The PVC futures price may be in low - level oscillation [12] - The soda ash futures may have a short - term weak - oscillatory trend [13] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao Jiji is 8000 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - **Market Analysis**: It is in the US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new crops are likely to have a good harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may be neutral, and the inventory may be stable [1] Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton, 3720 yuan/ton, 3440 yuan/ton, and 3220 yuan/ton respectively [2] - **Market Analysis**: Sino - US tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. US soybean exports are pessimistically expected. Domestic soybean meal supply is tight, and downstream demand has a slight boost [2] Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2300 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3] - **Market Analysis**: US tariff increases raise import costs, and domestic supply pressure eases. Downstream demand is expected to increase, but there are still some suppressing factors [3] Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 75720 - 76120 yuan, down 275 yuan [4] - **Market Analysis**: The global market is affected by tariffs, and the Fed's actions are uncertain. Domestically, policies boost market sentiment. The copper market is in a state of resonance between reality and expectation [4] Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate are 70750 yuan/ton and 69350 yuan/ton respectively, with a price difference of 1400 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Analysis**: The cost of lithium concentrate is expected to decline. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace. Demand has improved but lacks upward momentum. Inventory is accumulating [5][6] Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170 yuan, the Tangshan start - up rate is 83.13%, and social and steel mill inventories are 590.95 million tons and 207.12 million tons respectively [7] - **Market Analysis**: The steel fundamentals are improving, with a low - valuation. Cost is rising, and inventory is decreasing. The market is driven by macro policies and fundamentals [7] Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1200 yuan/ton, and the price at Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton [8] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [8] Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts index of iron ore is 99.95, and the prices of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder and Australian powder ore are provided [9] - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are mixed. US tariff policies suppress the upward space [9] Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: There is no specific spot price information provided, but the impact of tariff policies on the market is mentioned [10] - **Market Analysis**: The impact of "equivalent tariffs" is weakening. OPEC is increasing production, but demand may be affected by trade wars [10] Rubber - **Spot Information**: There is no specific spot price information provided, but the impact of US tariffs on the rubber market is mentioned [11] - **Market Analysis**: The rubber market is affected by tariffs. The supply is abundant, and demand may be suppressed [11] PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream prices of East China 5 - type PVC and ethylene - based PVC are 4820 yuan/ton and 5050 yuan/ton respectively [12] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is decreasing, demand is weak, and inventory is decreasing. The futures price may be in low - level oscillation [12] Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1447.81 yuan/ton [13] - **Market Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is average. The futures price may be weakly oscillatory [13]

Group 1: Soybean Oil - Spot market: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8020 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1] - Market analysis: It's the US soybean sowing and South American soybean harvesting and export season. South American new - crop soybean is likely to have a bumper harvest. Mid - term supply and downstream demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and mid - term inventory may be stable [1] - Reference view: The soybean oil 2509 contract may face short - term consolidation [1] Group 2: Soybean Meal - Spot information: The spot prices of 43 soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, Rizhao, and Dongguan are 3300 yuan/ton (220), 3720 yuan/ton (260), 3440 yuan/ton (220), and 3220 yuan/ton (220) respectively [2] - Market analysis: Sino - US tariff policies cause market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly finished. US soybean export outlook is pessimistic. Domestic soybean meal supply is tight recently, and downstream demand has a slight boost [2] - Reference view: Due to multiple factors, soybean meal may fluctuate in a short - term range [2] Group 3: Corn - Spot information: The average purchase price of new corn in key deep - processing enterprises in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia is 2090 yuan/ton, and in North China and Huanghuai is 2300 yuan/ton [3] - Market analysis: US tariff hikes increase corn import costs. Domestic supply pressure eases, and downstream demand may rise, but there are still some suppressing factors [3] - Reference view: Corn futures prices will fluctuate in a short - term range [3] Group 4: Electrolytic Copper - Spot information: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 74430 - 74670, down 555, with a premium of - 30 to + 20 [4] - Market analysis: Global "irrational" tariff shocks cause overseas market fluctuations. Domestic policies boost market sentiment. Copper raw material issues remain, and the market is in a state of game between reality and expectation [4] - Reference view: Maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4] Group 5: Lithium Carbonate - Spot information: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70750 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 69350 yuan/ton [5] - Market analysis: The cost of lithium concentrate is expected to decline. Supply is increasing but at a slower pace, and demand has improved but not enough to drive prices up [5][6] - Reference view: The lithium carbonate 2505 contract may fluctuate weakly, and short - selling on rallies is recommended [6] Group 6: Steel - Spot information: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3170, Tangshan's operating rate is 83.13%, social inventory is 590.95 million tons, and steel mill inventory is 207.12 million tons [7] - Market analysis: The steel fundamentals are improving. Cost is rising, and inventory is decreasing. The market is driven by short - term macro - policy expectations and shows a pattern of strong supply and demand [7] - Reference view: Treat steel with a long - on - dips strategy as macro - negatives are digested [7] Group 7: Coking Coal and Coke - Spot information: The price of Mongolian 5 coking coal is 1200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1330 yuan/ton [8] - Market analysis: Supply is loose, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and profit is approaching the break - even point [8] - Reference view: Coking coal and coke may have a weak rebound with limited space [8] Group 8: Iron Ore - Spot information: The Platts iron ore index is 99.45, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5) powder is 766, and the price of Australian iron ore with 62% Fe is 768 [9] - Market analysis: Supply and demand factors are mixed. US tariff policies suppress the upward space of iron ore prices [9] - Reference view: The iron ore 2505 contract will fluctuate in the short - term, and investors should be cautious [9] Group 9: Crude Oil - Market analysis: The impact of "reciprocal tariffs" is weakening. OPEC plans to increase production, but trade wars and geopolitical issues may drag down demand in the second quarter [10] - Reference view: Pay attention to the rebound of INE crude oil futures near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/ton [10] Group 10: Rubber - Market analysis: US tariffs affect Chinese tire and automobile exports. Rubber supply is loose globally, and demand may be suppressed [11] - Reference view: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support near 14000 yuan/ton for the main contract [11] Group 11: PVC - Spot information: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4820 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [12] - Market analysis: PVC production enterprise operating rate decreased last week. Demand from downstream enterprises is still mainly for rigid needs. Inventory decreased [12] - Reference view: PVC futures prices may fluctuate at a low level as the macro - sentiment improves slightly [12] Group 12: Soda Ash - Spot information: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1448.44 yuan/ton, unchanged [13] - Market analysis: Soda ash supply is at a high level, inventory decreased slightly, and demand is general [13] - Reference view: The soda ash futures market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term after the contract change [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market, being the main trading logic. Most non - US countries aim to negotiate agreements with the US. After the US delays imposing reciprocal tariffs, other countries also delay counter - measures [1]. - The market is in a high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is gradually emerging, and risk appetite is difficult to improve significantly [2][21]. - The price trends of various commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and weather, showing different characteristics of oscillation, strength, or weakness. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Tariff issues continue to disrupt the market. Gold oscillated and closed higher, showing strength. The market is concerned about future Sino - US negotiation space. The actual trade has been affected, and economic downward pressure is increasing. Market sentiment is bullish, but attention should be paid to increased volatility [12]. - Investment advice: Short - term market volatility increases, so pay attention to risks [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 164.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market is in high - level oscillation, lacking unilateral investment opportunities. Attention can be paid to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [13]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties [14]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Multiple events such as the US considering tax increases on the rich, investigating key minerals, and the slow progress of US - EU trade negotiations have occurred. The difficulty of trade negotiations persists, and the market should have a long - term expectation for tariff negotiations [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - New York state's manufacturing has contracted for two consecutive months, and Canada will conditionally exempt some counter - measures against US - imported cars. The EU expects US tariffs to remain unchanged. The impact of tariffs on the real economy is emerging, and the stock index is expected to oscillate weakly [20][21]. - Investment advice: Although US stocks have temporarily stabilized, they have not completely reversed their weak performance [21]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The NOPA's March soybean crushing volume was lower than expected, and ANEC raised Brazil's April soybean export forecast. Domestic soybean import costs have decreased. The spot market has mixed price changes, and the basis contract is the main form of trading [22][24]. - Investment advice: The futures price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to Brazil's export quotes, US soybean growing area weather, and Sino - US relations. The spot and basis of soybean meal will be under pressure [24]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The export tariff of Malaysian crude palm oil in May remains at 10%, and the reference price is lowered. The export of Malaysian palm oil from April 1 - 15 increased. The oil market oscillated. Rapeseed oil was affected by rumors, palm oil was supported by exports, and soybean oil was affected by the expectation of high soybean arrivals [25][26]. - Investment advice: It is advisable to long - allocate distant - month soybean oil. The price of palm oil will be weak until its cost - performance is fully restored [27]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangxi issued a drought risk warning for sugarcane. Brazil's sugar exports in the first two weeks of April decreased year - on - year. The sugar mill's high - price sales support the futures market, but it is in the off - season, and the downstream acceptance of high prices is low. The international market may be under pressure, and the import volume is expected to increase [30][33]. - Investment advice: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate weakly in Q2 2025, and attention should be paid to the origin weather and Brazil's crushing production [33]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Starch enterprises' losses remain unchanged. The raw material cost is high, and the downstream demand is weak. The futures price difference is affected by complex factors, and the loss may lead to a reduction in production. The substitution of wheat may affect the regional price difference [34][35]. - Investment advice: The futures price difference of corn starch has complex influencing factors and is expected to have small fluctuations [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The spot price of corn is stable. The import of grains is decreasing, and the inventory reduction in Northeast China is accelerating. The drought in North China wheat may affect the market [37]. - Investment advice: Before the May delivery, pay attention to inventory reduction in Northeast China and North China wheat production. Otherwise, the second - round upward repair of old - crop corn may be driven by the tightening of inventory after the May delivery [37]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - In early April, the daily output of key steel enterprises' crude steel increased, and the inventory increased. The steel price oscillated, and the market driver is not obvious. The market is waiting for policy signals and the impact of administrative crude steel production cuts [38][40]. - Investment advice: Be cautious about steel price rebounds, operate with light positions, and use spot for rebound hedging [41]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - In March 2025, the production of domestic cathode copper increased. The US copper industry called for export restrictions instead of tariff policies. The global economic downturn concerns and domestic supply - demand conditions may suppress copper prices [42][44]. - Investment advice: In the short term, copper prices are expected to oscillate widely. It is advisable to conduct band operations unilaterally and remain on the sidelines for arbitrage [44]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - The polysilicon production plan is expected to increase, but the high inventory and weak demand may put pressure on the spot price. The number of registered warehouse receipts is limited [46]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunities of going long on PS2506 at low prices and shorting PS2511 at high prices unilaterally. Hold the PS2506 - PS2511 positive arbitrage [46]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The demand for industrial silicon raw materials is weak, and the price of silica has decreased regionally. The supply is loose, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. The market is affected by factors such as factory production reduction and policy [47]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to shorting opportunities after the price rebounds [49]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The discovery of high - grade tin - tantalum mineralization in a project may affect the market sentiment. The short - term supply reduction may help the price stabilize, but the long - term external demand is uncertain due to the tariff war [50][51]. - Investment advice: Short - term lithium prices may stabilize, and short positions can consider taking profits. In the medium - long term, pay attention to shorting opportunities on rebounds [51]. 3.2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME will add two nickel delivery warehouses in Hong Kong. The macro - market and supply - demand factors affect nickel prices. The current nickel price may be oversold, and there are opportunities for upward repair [52][53]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to long - buying opportunities at low prices, manage positions well, and find short - matching varieties to hedge risks [53]. 3.2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price oscillated, following macro - news. The supply of primary lead decreased, and the raw material of recycled lead was in short supply. The import window of crude lead opened, and the inventory decreased slightly [54][55]. - Investment advice: In the short term, wait and see. Hold previous long positions and wait for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [55]. 3.2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME approved four LME - approved warehousing facilities in Hong Kong. The zinc price oscillated downward, and the inventory may turn from decreasing to increasing. In the short term, zinc prices will oscillate widely, and in the medium term, it is advisable to short on rebounds [56][58]. - Investment advice: Unilaterally, pay attention to shorting opportunities on medium - term rebounds near the moving average. For arbitrage, remain on the sidelines for inter - period and hold the internal - external positive arbitrage in the medium term [58]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The API crude oil inventory increased, and the IEA lowered the global oil demand growth forecast. The oil price oscillated, and the market is pessimistic about the demand outlook [59][60]. - Investment advice: The short - term crude oil price will maintain an oscillating pattern [61]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The PTA spot price decreased, and the basis strengthened slightly. The terminal demand is affected by tariffs, and the supply - side inventory decreased due to maintenance. In the short term, it may rebound slightly, but in the long term, it is bearish [62][63]. - Investment advice: The rebound height of the PTA industry chain is limited, and it is bearish in the medium - long term [64]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea market prices in Shandong and Henan decreased slightly. The supply is stable, and the demand is for rigid needs. The future supply may increase, and the demand is restricted by the downstream's acceptance of high - price复合肥 [65][66]. - Investment advice: The urea price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the demand in traditional and new delivery areas [66]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The trading volume of Shandong styrene decreased. The styrene price oscillated weakly, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively better than that of pure benzene. However, the demand after May is still under pressure [67][68]. - Investment advice: Consider taking profits on the strategy of expanding the styrene - pure benzene price difference. The styrene price is expected to be under pressure [68]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong increased steadily. The supply increased, and the demand improved. The price may have bottomed out, but there is still macro - uncertainty [69]. - Investment advice: Temporarily wait and see [70]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp was mainly stable, with some local price drops. The pulp price is affected by the macro - environment [71]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The spot price of PVC powder decreased slightly, and the trading was poor. The market is affected by tariffs and domestic stimulus policies [74]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the impact of tariffs on demand and the scale and type of domestic stimulus policies [74]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories decreased locally. The bottle chip market is affected by raw materials and tariffs. The supply and demand both increase, and the processing fee is expected to oscillate at a low level [75][76]. - Investment advice: The processing fee of bottle chips will oscillate in a low - level range [76]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - In 2025, the national carbon emission trading market work started. Three industries will be included in the carbon market, and the carbon emission price is expected to be under pressure [77]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will be under pressure [78]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The price of soda ash in the southwest market oscillated at a low level. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weak [79]. - Investment advice: The soda ash futures price is expected to be under pressure, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium term [79]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The price of float glass in the Shahe market was stable. The glass price decreased, and the demand in different regions is different [80]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the near - month contract will be under pressure. Consider going long on distant - month contracts on large pullbacks, but the rebound space is not optimistic [81][82]. 3.2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - MSC is expected to become the world's largest terminal operator. The spot index is lower than expected, and the market is worried about the excess capacity on the US line [83]. - Investment advice: The excess capacity on the US line may suppress the upward space of the market. The European line will be weak in the short term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities due to sentiment over - selling [83].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Soybean Oil**: The Y2509 contract of soybean oil may face short - term consolidation [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Due to multiple factors, soybean meal may experience short - term range - bound fluctuations [2]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the corn futures price will be range - bound, and an interval operation strategy is recommended [3]. - **Copper**: Maintain a tactical defense and focus on the monthly K - line pattern [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The 2505 contract of lithium carbonate may show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and short positions can be taken on rallies [5][6]. - **Steel**: With the gradual digestion of macro - negative factors, a strategy of buying on dips at low levels is recommended for steel [7]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Due to ample supply, coking coal and coke may have a limited - space, weak - side oscillatory rebound at low levels [8]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2505 contract will be range - bound in the short term, and traders are advised to be cautious [9]. - **Crude Oil**: After the sharp decline of the WTI main contract, pay attention to the rebound near the support level of 430 - 450 yuan/ton for the INE crude oil main contract [10]. - **Rubber**: Pay attention to the downstream operating rate of Shanghai rubber, and there is support around 14,000 yuan/ton for the main contract [11]. - **PVC**: With a slight improvement in macro - sentiment, the futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures market is expected to show a short - term weak - side oscillatory trend [13]. 3. Summary by Commodity Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of first - grade soybean oil at Zhangjiagang Donghai Grain and Oil is 8,320 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: During the current period, it is the U.S. soybean sowing season and the South American soybean harvesting and exporting season. South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The medium - term supply and demand of soybean oil may remain neutral, and the medium - term inventory may be stable [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in different regions are: Zhangjiagang 3,300 yuan/ton, Tianjin 3,720 yuan/ton, Rizhao 3,440 yuan/ton, and Dongguan 3,220 yuan/ton [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The Sino - U.S. tariff policy has caused market panic. Brazilian soybean harvesting is nearly complete, and the export outlook for U.S. soybeans is pessimistic. The supply of domestic soybean meal is still tight, and Brazilian soybeans are expected to arrive in mid - to late April. The downstream inventory is low, and the trading volume has increased slightly [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn in different regions are provided, such as 2,090 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2,290 yuan/ton in North China and the Huanghuai region [3]. - **Market Analysis**: U.S. tariff hikes have increased the cost of corn imports. The U.S. corn market is oscillating strongly. In China, the supply pressure has eased, and the demand is expected to increase. However, there are still potential suppressing factors [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 74,430 - 74,670 yuan, down 555 yuan, with a discount of 30 - a premium of 20 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Global "irrational" tariffs have caused turmoil in overseas capital markets. The Fed's stance reflects uncertainty. Domestically, policies are boosting market sentiment. The raw material supply problem has not been resolved, and the copper price is in a state of resonance [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 70,750 yuan/ton (+250), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 69,350 yuan/ton (+250) [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The forward price of spodumene concentrate is decreasing. Supply is increasing, and demand has improved but is still insufficient to drive up prices. The inventory is increasing, and the price has declined synchronously [5][6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.13%, the social inventory is 5.9095 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.0712 million tons [7]. - **Market Analysis**: The fundamentals of steel are improving, and the contango structure is weakening. The cost is rising, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is affected by both macro - policy expectations and fundamentals [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,200 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.4756 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.1713 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is ample, demand is weak, inventory is slightly increasing, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [8]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 98.35, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 765 yuan, and the price of Australian powder ore (62% Fe) is 764 yuan [9]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply and demand factors are intertwined. The supply has decreased slightly, and the demand is mixed. The U.S. tariff policy has restricted the upward movement of prices [9]. Crude Oil - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: The impact of U.S. "reciprocal tariffs" is fading. OPEC is increasing production, but global demand is under pressure due to trade wars and geopolitical uncertainties [10]. Rubber - **Spot Information**: Not provided in the report. - **Market Analysis**: U.S. tariffs have hit China's tire and automobile exports. The global supply and demand of rubber are both loose, and the demand may be severely restricted [11]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,840 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan increase; the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,080 yuan/ton, unchanged [12]. - **Market Analysis**: The production start - up rate has decreased. Demand remains weak, and the inventory has decreased. The futures price may oscillate at a low level [12]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,446.88 yuan/ton, a 3.12 - yuan decrease [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is at a high level, inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is mediocre. The futures market is under pressure [13].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various financial products including stock indices, bonds, precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It suggests different trading strategies based on the market trends, policy changes, and supply - demand relationships of each product. For example, in the stock index market, it recommends buying IM index futures when the impact of the tariff storm weakens; in the copper market, it expects the price to be strong in the short term due to supply - demand factors and policy changes [2][4][10]. Summary by Categories Stock Indices - **Market Performance**: The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the ChiNext Index up 1.36%, the STAR 50 up 2.07%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1348.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 260.8 billion yuan from the previous day [2]. - **Macro News**: China's social financing increment in March was 5.89 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were 3.64 trillion yuan. The US announced tariff exemptions for some products but may re - review and impose tariffs on electronics. The US Treasury bond sell - off continued, and the yield exceeded 4.5% on Friday [2]. - **Funding and Valuation**: The margin trading balance increased by 2.755 billion yuan. The overnight Shibor rate decreased by 13.40bp to 1.6070%. The P/E ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. were 12.09, 27.48 respectively [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to buy IM index futures on dips after the impact of the tariff storm weakens. Unilateral trading suggests buying IM index long positions, and no arbitrage strategy is recommended [4]. Bonds - **Market Performance**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined, with TL down 0.36%, T down 0.14%, TF down 0.13%, and TS down 0.07% [5]. - **News**: At the end of March, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing scale was 8.4%, and the RMB loan balance increased by 7.4% year - on - year. The US CPI in March increased by 2.4% year - on - year [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The US tariff policy may lead to a more active domestic monetary policy. It is expected that the interest rate will maintain a downward trend in the medium term, but there may be short - term fluctuations. It is necessary to pay attention to policy risks and take profit opportunities [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 1.46% to 763.70 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver rose 2.79% to 8153.00 yuan/kg. COMEX gold fell 0.24%, and COMEX silver rose 0.20% [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The Fed's hawkish monetary policy may pose a potential risk to the gold price. The current gold price has entered an accelerated upward phase, and there may be a price correction after the positive factors are exhausted [7]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold existing long positions in gold and silver. The reference operating range for the main Shanghai gold contract is 748 - 780 yuan/gram, and for the main Shanghai silver contract is 7804 - 8545 yuan/kg [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Last week, copper prices rebounded after a sharp decline. The inventory of the three major exchanges decreased by 34,000 tons. The short - term copper price is expected to be strong due to supply - demand factors and policy changes. The reference operating range for the domestic Shanghai copper main contract is 73,000 - 78,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 8900 - 9500 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rebounded after a decline. The domestic inventory decreased, and the short - term price is expected to continue to rebound. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 19,200 - 20,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2350 - 2480 US dollars/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell on Friday. The zinc market is expected to be bearish in the medium term. Due to the large impact of macro events, it is recommended to reduce positions [12]. - **Lead**: The lead price rose slightly on Friday. The lead market is affected by macro uncertainties and supply - demand factors. It is expected to maintain high - volatility and low - level fluctuations, and it is recommended to reduce positions [13]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices recovered from a low level last week. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate around 120,000 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,500 US dollars/ton [14]. - **Tin**: Tin prices fell sharply last week. The supply is expected to be low, and the demand is expected to weaken. The short - term price is expected to be volatile at a high level. The reference operating range for the Shanghai tin main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin 3M is 29,000 - 33,000 US dollars/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot price of lithium carbonate was stable on Friday, and the contract price was weak. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The reference operating range for the main contract of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange is 69,300 - 71,000 yuan/ton [16]. - **Alumina**: The alumina index rose on April 11. The supply is still in excess, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2505 is 2650 - 2950 yuan/ton [17]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply exceeds demand, and the price is expected to be volatile. [18] Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined on the previous trading day. The short - term price of steel products is expected to be weak and volatile due to trade frictions and supply - demand factors [20][21]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore main contract rose slightly on Friday. The supply is stable, and the demand is under pressure. The short - term price is expected to be weak, and it is necessary to control positions [22]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The glass price declined slightly, and the soda ash price was stable. The glass inventory decreased, and the soda ash inventory was under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for both [23][24]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were volatile last week. The supply is relatively strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [25][26]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon continued to decline on April 11. The supply is in excess, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or use short - term trading strategies [30][31]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The global financial market rebounded, and the rubber market was affected by macro factors. The supply and demand of rubber were in a state of contradiction. It is recommended to operate conservatively, shorten the decision - making and holding periods, and reduce positions [34][38]. - **Crude Oil**: As of Friday, WTI crude oil futures rose 2.08%, Brent crude oil futures rose 1.88%, and INE crude oil futures fell 1.50%. It is recommended to take profit on dips and wait for the inflection point [39][41]. - **Methanol**: The methanol price was affected by macro factors. The supply is expected to increase in the future, and it is recommended to short on rallies [42]. - **Urea**: The urea price is expected to be supported by supply - demand factors. It is recommended to buy on dips and use positive arbitrage strategies for the inter - month spread [43]. - **Styrene**: The styrene price rebounded in the short term. It is recommended to close short positions. In the long term, it is recommended to short on rallies [44]. - **PVC**: The PVC price declined slightly. The short - term fundamentals are supported, but the medium - term outlook is weak. [46] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol price rose slightly. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - **PTA**: The PTA price rose slightly. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see [48]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX price fell slightly. The PX market is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. It is recommended to wait and see [49]. - **Polyethylene (PE)**: The price of PE is expected to decline in the medium - term due to increased supply and decreased demand [50]. - **Polypropylene (PP)**: The price of PP is expected to be volatile and bearish in April due to supply and demand factors [51]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The domestic hog price rose over the weekend. The short - term price is expected to be stable with a slight increase in some areas. It is recommended to short on rallies [53]. - **Eggs**: The domestic egg price was stable over the weekend with a slight increase in some areas. The short - term sentiment is positive, but the medium - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait for short - selling signals [54]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal is expected to rise in the short term and then decline. The medium - term price is expected to be range - bound. It is recommended to use a buy - on - dips strategy [55][56]. - **Oils and Fats**: The palm oil price was affected by production, export, and crude oil prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand situation in the producing areas. The medium - term outlook for oils and fats may be supported if the macro situation stabilizes [57][59]. - **Sugar**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell slightly on Friday. The short - term sugar price may be volatile, and the medium - term price is affected by weather conditions [60][61]. - **Cotton**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price was volatile on Friday. The short - term price is affected by tariffs, and the medium - term price depends on downstream consumption. The possibility of a price decline is relatively high [62][63].