Core Viewpoint - The report from China Post Securities indicates a positive outlook for consumer investment opportunities, highlighting both cyclical recovery and new consumption trends as key areas of focus for investors [1] Group 1: Travel and Tourism Data - During the May Day holiday, 314 million domestic trips were made, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, up 8.0% year-on-year [1] - The average spending per person was 574 yuan, reflecting a 1.5% increase year-on-year, indicating a simultaneous rise in both consumption volume and price [1][4] Group 2: Retail and Dining Performance - Key retail and dining enterprises saw sales increase by 6.3% year-on-year during the holiday, with significant growth in home appliances (15.5%), automobiles (13.7%), and communication equipment (10.5%) [5] - E-commerce platforms reported over 20% growth in smart home product sales, while dining enterprises experienced an 8.7% increase in sales [5] Group 3: Cross-Border Travel Trends - Inbound travel orders surged over 170% during the holiday, with predictions of 2.15 million daily cross-border movements, a 27% increase compared to the previous year [3] Group 4: Consumer Recovery Insights - The report suggests that the current consumer data indicates a gradual recovery, with the need for further confirmation from upcoming holiday data [6][8] - The combination of various consumer policies, such as trade-in programs and dining vouchers, has significantly stimulated consumption [5][8] Group 5: Overall Consumer Sentiment - The overall sentiment indicates that consumption is gradually warming, with expectations for a transition from short-term stabilization to a more comprehensive recovery [7][8] - The report emphasizes that while the recovery is on the right track, it will require time to fully materialize [8]

5月7日，红利低波ETF（512890）涨0.81%，成交额2.76亿元。资金流向方面，已连续3天获得资金净申 购，最新份额143.51亿份，再创新高，规模159.14亿元。 湘财证券表示，2025年5月7日国新办新闻发布会，落实了此前4月25日中央政治局会议提出的"适时降准 降息"，并进一步完善了现有结构性货币政策工具，创设新的政策工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、普 惠金融等领域；并就应对外部冲击和稳住楼市股市以及促进国内新质生产力发展和产业升级，给出明确 路径。我们认为，目前A股市场处于新"国九条"行情+类"四万亿"投资的重叠趋势中，"稳住楼市股市"政 策的进一步落实，将指引2025年A股市场继续以"慢牛"方式运行。在具体投资领域，中期维度建议重点 关注2025年政府工作报告中提到的科技、绿色、消费以及基建等领域。短期维度建议继续关注：红利相 关板块；预期将受益于扩大内需的消费领域；以及新质生产力相关的科技板块。 消息面上，5月7日，金融监管总局负责人表示，当前，银行保险机构各项业务有序开展，主要监管指标 均处于健康区间。大型金融机构基本盘稳固，"压舱石"作用明显。中小金融机构改革化险取得重要阶段 性成效。 ...

证券研究报告：社会服务|点评报告 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 7997.15 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 9343.57 | | 52 周最低 | | 5985.5 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 2024-05 2024-07 2024-09 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 社会服务 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李鑫鑫 SAC 登记编号:S1340525010006 Email:lixinxin@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《三问三答再看政策，全面看好消费 机会》 - 2025.03.18 五一消费数据如何？ ⚫ 事件 经文化和旅游部数据中心测算，五一假期 5 天，全国国内出游 3.14 亿人次，同比增长 6.4%；国内出游总花费 1802.69 亿元，同比 增长 8.0%。我们折算人均花费为 574 元，同比增长 1.5%，五一消费 量价齐升。 ⚫ 投资要点 零售餐饮：以旧 ...

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a positive outlook on consumer opportunities, indicating a gradual recovery in consumption trends, supported by various government policies [4][8] - The report emphasizes that the May Day holiday data shows significant growth in both the number of travelers and total spending, suggesting a strong recovery in the consumer sector [6][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Basic Information - Closing index level is 7997.15, with a 52-week high of 9343.57 and a low of 5985.5 [1] Recent Research Insights - The report notes a 6.4% year-on-year increase in domestic travel during the May Day holiday, with total spending reaching 180.27 billion yuan, a growth of 8.0% [4][5] - Retail and catering sectors showed a 6.3% increase in sales, with specific categories like home appliances and automobiles seeing growth rates of 15.5% and 13.7% respectively [5][6] Investment Recommendations and Focused Targets - The report suggests focusing on cyclical sectors such as liquor and catering, which are expected to benefit from economic recovery [9] - Recommended stocks include Yum China, Haidilao, and various tourism and hotel companies [9]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - Focus on the technology industry, particularly sectors such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and the Hang Seng Technology Index Core Points and Arguments - **Macroeconomic Trends**: Emphasis on accelerating investment in technology sectors during periods of market downturns, with a focus on AI, robotics, and autonomous driving as key areas for future rebounds [1][3] - **2025 Investment Focus**: Key industries to watch include leading service consumption companies and firms enhancing shareholder returns. Notable sectors for performance upgrades from mid-March to early May include precious metals, transportation, large finance, agricultural products, and food processing [1][5] - **Capital Expenditure**: Identified as a crucial driver for the technology market, with recent trends indicating increased investment from government and private sectors following the emergence of DeepSeek, which has altered expectations for domestic technological breakthroughs [1][6] - **Impact of Export Exposure**: Anticipated performance impact from the complete elimination of export exposure to the U.S. is estimated to be between 20% to 40%, potentially leading to 2-3 trading halts for individual stocks. However, this should not be interpreted as a signal of a comprehensive recession [1][7] - **May Market Outlook**: The market direction remains unclear, but two key themes are highlighted: potential rebounds in export chains due to easing U.S.-China relations, particularly in technology products, and the ongoing focus on technology sectors including AI, robotics, and new consumption trends [1][8] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Three-Phase Strategy for Tariff Impacts**: A structured approach to address recent tariff impacts includes: 1. Counter-cyclical strategies based on past trade disputes 2. Active management of market sentiment and performance expectations 3. Continued focus on technology sectors and self-sufficiency in critical areas like semiconductors and military materials [2] - **Long-term Investment Recommendations**: Industries suitable for long-term strategic investments include those with supply-side clearing such as Hong Kong internet, AH stock white goods, commercial vehicles, and lithium battery leaders, along with agricultural chemicals and pharmaceuticals [11] - **Annual Strategy Consistency**: The annual investment strategy remains unchanged, focusing on three main lines: AI and robotics, new consumption, and supply-side clearing sectors, with additional allocations to agricultural chemicals and military aerospace equipment [9][10]

Group 1: Overall A Performance - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth for the entire A-share market and non-financial A-shares showed a slight recovery, with year-on-year growth of 3.5% and 4.2% respectively, compared to significant declines in Q4 2024 of -15.1% and -47.2% [8][9][12] - The return on equity (ROE) continued to decline, reaching 7.8% in Q1 2025, down from 7.9% in Q4 2024, primarily due to a decrease in asset turnover rate [8][10][11] - The computer, agriculture, and steel industries led profit growth in Q1 2025, while real estate, coal, and military industries lagged behind [12][15] Group 2: Fund Quarterly Report - Active equity public funds increased their positions and reduced redemptions, with stock positions for ordinary equity, mixed equity, and flexible allocation funds at 89.36%, 88.17%, and 76.70% respectively, showing slight increases from Q4 2024 [16][18][20] - The total redemption for active equity public funds in Q1 2025 was 72.3 billion, a significant decrease of 67.0% compared to 218.9 billion in Q4 2024 [16][18] - The TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and high-end manufacturing sectors saw increased allocations, while financial real estate and cyclical sectors were reduced [20][22] Group 3: Policy Insights - The focus of the Political Bureau meeting was on stabilizing internal confidence, with monetary and fiscal policies aimed at accelerating the use of existing tools [30] - The meeting highlighted the need for proactive macro policies to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, indicating a shift in policy framework [30] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The report maintains an optimistic view on market conditions, emphasizing the importance of observing volume and price during the market observation period, with a focus on domestic demand and self-sufficiency [7] - Key sectors for domestic demand include media, food and beverage, real estate, transportation, automotive, and agriculture, with specific trends noted in each [7] - The self-sufficiency strategy is driven by the strategic competition in the technology sector between China and the US, leading to a restructuring of the domestic industrial chain [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange's main board companies demonstrated strong resilience and stability in 2024, achieving a total operating revenue of 49.57 trillion yuan and a net profit of 4.35 trillion yuan, supported by a series of incremental policies [1][2]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2024, the total operating revenue of the main board companies was 49.57 trillion yuan, maintaining stability year-on-year; net profit reached 4.35 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9% [2]. - Approximately 80% of companies reported profits, with 40% experiencing year-on-year net profit growth; over 230 companies saw net profit increases exceeding 30%, and 78 companies turned losses into profits [2]. - The annual trend showed a decline in net profit of 1% in the first half, followed by a significant recovery with a 5% increase in the second half; operating cash flow improved notably, with a 15% year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter [2]. Group 2: Stability and Growth - Over the past five years, the main board's operating revenue and net profit have both seen a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5% [3]. - A total of 744 "long-distance running" companies achieved positive compound growth in both revenue and net profit over five years, contributing nearly 70% of total revenue and over 80% of total profit [3]. - Key sectors such as finance, energy, construction, and transportation played a significant role, contributing over 80% of profits, while emerging sectors like automotive, biomedicine, and intelligent manufacturing showed a net profit CAGR of 10% over three years [3]. Group 3: Emerging Industries - In the past decade, the proportion of companies in emerging industries such as electronics, communications, biomedicine, and automotive has risen to 40%, with the number of firms in sectors like semiconductors and new energy vehicles doubling [4]. - Emerging industries contributed over 40% of net profits in manufacturing and services, with a net profit CAGR of 11%, outperforming traditional industries by 5 percentage points [4]. - In 2024, industries such as electronics, communications, and automotive saw net profit growth of 11%, 6%, and 4% respectively, driven by trends in AI technology, cloud computing, and electrification [4]. Group 4: R&D Investment - In 2024, R&D investment by companies on the main board exceeded 1 trillion yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of national R&D expenditure [5]. - The main board's entities invested approximately 920 billion yuan in R&D, with 723 companies investing over 100 million yuan [5]. - Companies with R&D investments exceeding 1 billion yuan and a CAGR above 5% over three years saw average net profit growth outperforming the overall level by 3.6 to 6.1 percentage points [5]. Group 5: Dividends and Shareholder Returns - In 2024, 1,259 companies on the main board announced cash dividends, with a total dividend amount of 1.77 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6% [7]. - The overall dividend payout ratio reached 39%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points year-on-year, with 1,041 companies distributing over 30% of their profits as dividends [7]. - A trend of multiple dividends within a year emerged, with 366 companies implementing interim dividends totaling 574.9 billion yuan, marking a significant increase [7]. Group 6: Share Buybacks and Support Measures - In 2024, the number of disclosed share buyback plans reached 400, and important shareholder buyback plans reached 380, both doubling year-on-year [8]. - The total amount for proposed buybacks and increases reached 843 billion yuan and 537 billion yuan respectively, showing significant growth [8]. - Since the introduction of special loans in September 2024, 205 companies disclosed buyback plans utilizing these loans, with a total loan amount exceeding 52 billion yuan [8].

Group 1 - In Q1 2025, the overall equity position of actively managed equity funds increased to 85.47%, up by 0.40 percentage points from Q4 2024 [4][5][12] - The main sectors with increased holdings included financial real estate, consumer goods, pharmaceuticals, and cyclical industries, with financial real estate seeing the largest increase from 3.7% to 4.3% [9][12] - Actively managed equity funds increased their positions in the automotive and chemical sectors while reducing exposure to military, environmental protection, and transportation sectors [12][19] Group 2 - The top five sectors for actively managed equity funds in Q1 2025 were electronics (20.3%), pharmaceuticals (10.4%), basic chemicals (8.9%), public utilities (7.2%), and communications (6.9%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were automotive (+0.8%), basic chemicals (+0.6%), real estate (+0.3%), construction materials (+0.2%), and public utilities (+0.2%) [12][19] - The top five sectors with the largest decreases in holdings were military defense (-0.9%), environmental protection (-0.6%), transportation (-0.6%), computers (-0.3%), and steel (-0.2%) [12][19] Group 3 - In Q1 2025, large-scale actively managed equity funds increased their positions in non-ferrous metals and home appliances while reducing exposure to non-bank financials and food and beverage sectors [19][24] - The top five sectors for large-scale actively managed equity funds were electronics (19.0%), food and beverage (16.5%), power equipment (11.3%), non-bank financials (9.7%), and pharmaceuticals (9.5%) [19][24] - The top five sectors with the largest increases in holdings were non-ferrous metals (+3.0%), home appliances (+2.3%), power equipment (+1.6%), machinery (+0.9%), and automotive (+0.7%) [19][24] Group 4 - The concentration of holdings in the top 20 stocks increased significantly in Q1 2025, with the top 5 holdings rising to 18.5%, top 10 to 27.7%, and top 100 to 65.9% [23][29] - The top 20 stocks with the largest increases in holdings were primarily in the electronics, automotive, and communications sectors [25][31] - The top three stocks with the largest increases in holdings were BYD, Zijin Mining, and Chipone Technology [25][31] Group 5 - Expectations for Q2 2025 indicate that holdings in technology, consumer, and certain cyclical sectors may remain high due to government policies promoting AI and consumption [32][33] - The agricultural and food and beverage sectors are expected to see increased holdings due to low current positions and improving consumption potential [32][33] - The construction materials sector is anticipated to benefit from ongoing real estate policies and increased demand [32][33]

宏观深度报告 20250419 贸易摩擦如何影响我国就业？政策如何应 对？ [Table_Summary] ◼ 贸易摩擦或对我国就业市场造成扰动 ◼ 出口就业人数的两种定量测算 ◼ 对等关税对就业影响的估算 2025 年 04 月 19 日 证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 李昌萌 执业证书：S0600524120007 lichm@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《中国科技产业为全球资产注入稳定 性》 2025-04-14 《美债抛售潮的原因：去美元化、流 动性冲击与中期财政扩张》 2025-04-13 东吴证券研究所 1 / 13 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数。关税冲击主要是制造业出口，制造业 有更多的资本和技术投入作为劳动要素的代替，因此每百万元增加值吸 纳的就业只有 4.7 人。相比之下，建筑业和部分服务业吸纳就业的能力 更强。每百万元增加值吸纳的就业人数较多的行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The departure of fund manager Zhou Haidong from Huashang Fund marks a significant event in the industry, reflecting broader trends of "de-starring" and fee reform within the fund management sector [1][9]. Group 1: Zhou Haidong's Departure - Zhou Haidong has resigned from his position as fund manager for six funds due to personal reasons and will not take on any other roles within Huashang Fund [1][3]. - Zhou was recognized as a "dark horse" fund manager, achieving both performance and scale growth, with management assets exceeding 35 billion yuan at one point [1][5]. - His management style focused on a diversified investment approach, which helped him avoid losses during market downturns [7]. Group 2: Fund Management Transition - Following Zhou's departure, other experienced fund managers will take over the management of the funds he previously oversaw, ensuring continuity in management [4]. - Huashang Fund has emphasized its commitment to building a robust research and investment team, having trained a team of 65 members with an average of 8.59 years of experience [10]. Group 3: Industry Trends - The fund management industry is experiencing a shift towards index funds, which are gaining popularity due to lower fees and reduced reliance on individual fund managers [10][11]. - The trend of "de-starring" fund managers is becoming more common, with several notable fund managers leaving their positions in recent years [9]. - The industry is entering a "thin profit, high sales" phase, which may lead to a less exciting investment environment unless active equity funds can regain their footing [11].