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高盛、富达看好A股,外资做多中国热情创四年新高
Jie Mian Xin Wen· 2025-03-26 11:13
高盛、富达看好A股,外资做多中国热情创四年新 高 他还对界面新闻表示,中国科技股的亮眼表现是由基本面驱动的,未来上涨动能会往外扩张,成为 外资更加关注中国的关键催化剂之一,从而吸引更多国际资本回到中国股市。 尽管受外部贸易环境不确定性的影响,但今年迄今中国股市是全球表现最佳的市场之一,尤其是离 岸中资概念股。近期高盛、摩根士丹利、花旗、瑞银纷纷上调中国股票评级,认为中国资产的估值更具 吸引力。 周三,高盛首席中国股票策略师刘劲津发布名为《中国已经回归》的报告,重申A股本轮涨势将会 比去年9月时更加持久。 刘劲津表示,海外投资者对中国股市的兴趣和参与度已经上涨到近四年新高。从目前来看,特朗普 关税对于A股的冲击没有其第一任期时那么大,同时,中国以AI为代表的科技行业出现结构性增长机 会,房地产等传统经济行业也出现了复苏的萌芽,这使高盛对中国经济增长前景更为乐观. 同日,富达国际也表达了看好中国股市的观点。该公司基金经理George Efstathopoulos在一场研讨 会上表示,自2024年四季度中国政府推出新一轮刺激政策以来,经济数据明显改善,货币和财政政策立 场更加明确,企业盈利也出现改善。在房地产领域, ...
经济数据与当下宏观热点
2025-03-18 01:38
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the economic performance in early 2025, focusing on various sectors including retail, fixed asset investment, real estate, industrial production, and employment data [2][4][5][8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Recovery Signs**: The economic data for January and February 2025 shows signs of recovery, with retail sales increasing by 4% year-on-year, up from 3.7% at the end of last year [2]. - **Consumer Goods Performance**: Essential consumer goods like food and clothing saw significant growth, with food sales up 11.5% and clothing up 3.3%. Optional consumer goods also improved, with cosmetics up 4.4% and sports goods up 25% [2][4]. - **Fixed Asset Investment Growth**: Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, driven mainly by infrastructure investment, which rose by 9.95% [2][5]. - **Real Estate Sector**: Real estate investment showed a reduced negative growth of -9.8%, with sales area decline narrowing to -5.1% [2][7]. - **Industrial Production**: Industrial value added increased by 5.9%, indicating stable industrial production levels, confirming that the third quarter of last year was the GDP growth low point [2][8]. - **Employment Concerns**: The urban unemployment rate reached 5.4% in February, the highest since March 2023, indicating ongoing economic pressures [2][9]. - **Export Performance**: Exports grew by 2.3% year-on-year in January and February, a significant drop from 10.7% in December 2024, influenced by the timing of the Spring Festival and tariff impacts on exports to the U.S. [2][14][15][16]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Policy Changes**: New consumer policies in 2025 emphasize mobilizing various sectors to stabilize the housing market and enhance income, with a focus on tourism and emerging industries [2][11]. - **Childcare Subsidies**: Some regions have introduced childcare subsidies to attract residents and support the real estate market, indicating a broader strategy to boost population growth [2][12]. - **Financial Data**: Social financing in February exceeded 2 trillion, reflecting strong government bond issuance and a historical high for the period [2][19][21]. - **Monetary Supply Trends**: M1 and M2 growth rates indicate a lack of significant change in corporate liquidity, suggesting stable internal financing demand [2][22]. - **Policy Expectations**: Upcoming government bond issuances and potential interest rate cuts are anticipated to support macroeconomic conditions [2][23].
35岁门槛,要改?
投资界· 2025-03-14 07:43
以下文章来源于南风窗 ,作者赵靖含 南风窗 . 冷静地思考,热情地生活。 错配感。 作者 | 赵靖含 编辑 | 阿树 来源 | 南风窗 (ID:SouthReviews) 在35岁追上来之前,汤妍终于上岸了。 她心惊肉跳地回望过去的职业生涯,名校本硕毕业,从中小厂产品经理到阿里系P7,一 路过关斩将,在杭州置业买房,也目睹互联网从意气风发到"裁员广进"。 5年前,她觉得大厂能给她更多安全感,但30岁、35岁,年龄危机步步紧逼,心态发生 了逆转。 两会期间,全国人大代表郑功成表示,延迟退休后尽快遏制35岁就业歧视现象。 这给社会传递了一种信号:35岁危机背后的就业困境,的确到了该破除的紧迫时刻了, 老龄化趋势不可避免,就业市场需要对经验丰富的"大龄求职者"宽容一点,公平一点。 身在职场,35岁是一个临界点,职场晋升空间在萎缩,投简历被淘汰风险增加。因此, 这个非整数年龄的到来,被广泛称为"35岁危机"。 面对"35岁焦虑",汤妍觉得,与其等着被"大环境"优化,不如主动出击——离开大厂, 考编。在她看来,除了前途相对稳定以外,更关键的是公平。 考公考编普遍适用双盲机制,即面试官和考生彼此都不知道对方的真实身份,面 ...
35岁门槛,要改?
36氪· 2025-03-13 13:37
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the "35-year crisis" in the job market, highlighting the increasing employment difficulties faced by individuals as they approach this age, particularly in the context of the changing dynamics of the labor market and the impact of educational attainment on job readiness [5][11][14]. Group 1: Employment Challenges - The "35-year crisis" is characterized by shrinking promotion opportunities and increased risks of being eliminated from job applications as individuals reach this age [5][12]. - Many individuals, like Tang Yan, are opting to leave large companies for more stable government jobs, which offer a fairer recruitment process due to the double-blind interview mechanism [6][25]. - Recent changes in recruitment policies in various provinces are signaling a potential easing of age restrictions for public sector jobs, which could alleviate some of the pressures associated with the "35-year crisis" [6][9]. Group 2: Educational Trends and Job Market - The average educational attainment of the labor force has increased, leading to a delay in the age at which individuals enter the job market, thus compressing the time available to navigate the "35-year crisis" [14][15]. - The competition for jobs is intensifying, with over 1.2 million fresh graduates entering the job market each year, making it challenging for older candidates to secure positions [15][26]. Group 3: Changing Job Preferences - There is a noticeable trend of older candidates participating in civil service examinations, with a significant increase in the number of candidates over 30 years old [26][27]. - The desire for stable government jobs is rising, as many individuals seek to escape the pressures of the private sector, which has become increasingly competitive and less forgiving [20][25]. Group 4: Personal Experiences and Adaptations - Individuals like Cheng Ze and Li Lu have shared their experiences of navigating the job market at 35, highlighting the emotional and psychological challenges associated with age discrimination [28][39]. - Many are turning to side jobs or alternative career paths to maintain financial stability and reduce anxiety related to age and employment [38][40]. Group 5: Policy Recommendations - Experts suggest that legislative measures should be implemented to combat age discrimination in employment, similar to laws in other countries that protect older workers [50][51]. - There is a call for increased investment in education and training for older workers to better integrate them into the labor market and address the skills mismatch [51][52].