Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Insights - The report highlights the accelerating global shift towards smoke-free products, with leading tobacco companies increasing their R&D investments and product offerings in the new tobacco sector. Major companies like Philip Morris International, British American Tobacco, Japan Tobacco, and Imperial Brands are projected to see revenue growth in new tobacco products of 15.0%, 2.5%, 21.1%, and 24.2% respectively for 2024, with significant future targets for smoke-free revenue [11][12] - Compliance is emphasized as a key development theme, with ongoing regulatory pressures in overseas markets leading to a decline in disposable vape products. The report anticipates a recovery in the compliant market and an acceleration in product iteration [3][12] - Domestic suppliers are poised for growth, with companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong showing stable revenue performance and plans for innovation and international expansion [4][6] Summary by Sections New Tobacco Development - The report discusses the increasing penetration of new tobacco products, which is changing consumer habits. Leading companies are focusing on R&D and product innovation, with significant revenue growth expected in the coming years [11][12] - Philip Morris aims for over two-thirds of its revenue to come from new tobacco products by 2030, while British American Tobacco and Japan Tobacco have set similar ambitious targets for 2035 [11][12] Regulatory Environment - The report notes a high-pressure regulatory environment in overseas markets, with new bans on disposable vapes in Belgium, France, and the UK. The FDA in the US is also accelerating its approval processes for new products [3][12] Financial Performance of Key Players - Smoore International reported a revenue of 34.75 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 8.8%. The company is focusing on HNB products as a growth driver [4][15] - China Tobacco Hong Kong achieved a revenue of 43.70 billion HKD in H2 2024, with a net profit increase of 48.4%. The company is optimizing its product and channel structure for better profitability [4][17] - Yingqu Technology reported a revenue of 10.34 billion CNY in Q4 2024, with a focus on vertical integration in the manufacturing of smoking devices [5][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong, as well as Yingqu Technology, due to their strong growth potential and strategic positioning in the evolving market [6][18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the growth of emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products, indicating a robust performance in the light industry sector [1][5] - The report anticipates a recovery in traditional consumption sectors, with a focus on companies that are expected to reach performance inflection points in the second half of the year [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The overall economic environment is described as weak, but there is structural prosperity in consumption [5] 2. Performance Review for 24A & 25Q1 - Emotional consumption and high-quality domestic products have shown significant growth, with companies like Pop Mart and others demonstrating strong performance [9] - Traditional consumption sectors are expected to stabilize and recover, with companies such as Oppein Home, Gujia Home, and others being highlighted for their potential [9] 3. Sub-sector Performance - **Home Products**: 24A revenue decreased by 0.28% YoY, while net profit dropped by 16.21%. However, 25Q1 showed a revenue increase of 3.79% and a net profit increase of 10.78% [9] - **Paper Industry**: 24A revenue decreased by 1.25% YoY, with a significant drop in net profit of 136.6%. 25Q1 saw a revenue decline of 13.04% and a net profit decrease of 91.72% [9] - **Packaging**: 24A revenue increased by 2.55% YoY, but net profit fell by 16.81%. In 25Q1, revenue grew by 9.2% and net profit increased by 19.7% [9] - **Cultural and Entertainment Products**: 24A revenue increased by 7.64% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 8.81%. 25Q1 showed a slight revenue increase of 2.42% and a net profit decrease of 6.95% [9] - **Personal Care Products**: 24A revenue increased by 6.30% YoY, with a net profit decrease of 4.71%. 25Q1 saw a significant revenue increase of 26.13% and a net profit increase of 12.94% [9] 4. Fund Holdings Analysis - The fund holding ratio for the light industry sector decreased to 2.28%, with notable changes in specific sub-sectors [12] - Companies like Sun Paper, Morning Glory, and others are leading in fund holdings, particularly in emotional consumption categories [15]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025, particularly in non-recurring net profit, indicating potential growth in various business segments [1][7]. Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.573 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.45%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, down 44.17% [1]. - In Q4 2024, revenue was 1.034 billion yuan, up 14.90% year-on-year, while net profit was 80 million yuan, down 32.01% [1]. - In Q1 2025, revenue reached 859 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.45%, with net profit of 77 million yuan, up 37.81% [1]. Market Insights - The global smart controller market is projected to grow from 1.89 trillion USD in 2023 to approximately 1.98 trillion USD in 2024, with China's market expected to grow from 3.44 trillion yuan to 3.87 trillion yuan, reflecting a CAGR of 13.01% [1]. - The global new tobacco market is expected to grow by 12.7% in 2024, reaching 38.85 billion USD [2]. - The Chinese automotive electronics market reached 1.0973 trillion yuan in 2023, with an expected growth to 1.1585 trillion yuan in 2024 [2]. Product Performance - Revenue from smart control components was 1.145 billion yuan, down 13.96% year-on-year, primarily due to delays in new project capacity [3]. - Revenue from innovative consumer electronics was 1.137 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.55% year-on-year, with electronic cigarette sales showing stable growth [3]. - Automotive electronics revenue was 614 million yuan, up 19.43% year-on-year, benefiting from policies promoting vehicle upgrades [3]. - Health environment products saw a significant decline in revenue, down 53.14% year-on-year, due to increased market competition [3]. Financial Metrics - The gross margin for 2024 and Q1 2025 was 28.36% and 28.82%, respectively, showing a slight year-on-year decrease and increase [5]. - Operating cash flow for 2024 was 431 million yuan, down 37% year-on-year [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates continued improvement in performance across multiple business segments, including electronic cigarettes, automotive electronics, and health environment products, with projected revenues of 4.494 billion yuan, 5.366 billion yuan, and 6.031 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Reynolds Tobacco's acquisition of 12 PMTA-reviewed e-cigarettes for $5 million represents a strategic move to gain legal market access in a tightening regulatory environment for new tobacco products in the U.S. [1][5] - The report from Tianfeng Securities indicates that companies holding PMTA assets that progress to substantive review stages are likely to become acquisition hotspots, leading to increased transaction valuations in the industry [1][5] - The new tobacco market in the U.S. is seeing intensified competition for PMTA assets, which are becoming critical compliance resources for global tobacco companies [1][5] Group 2 - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported a significant growth in its new tobacco business, with IQOS HTU shipments reaching 37.1 billion units in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%, capturing 20.40% of total shipments [1][2] - In the EU, IQOS HTU's market share grew by 1.2 percentage points to a record 11.4%, with shipments reaching 5.2 billion units, a 10.64% increase year-on-year [3] - PMI's smokeless products continue to show strong growth, with a 14.4% increase in shipments, contributing to an overall 3.9% growth in total shipments as of March 31, 2025 [2][3] Group 3 - The acquisition by Reynolds Tobacco includes a fixed cash payment of $5 million and a potential earn-out payment of up to $4.2 million based on the sales performance of the products within a year of commercialization [4][5] - The CEO of PMI noted that the company's first-quarter performance was exceptionally strong, driven by increasing sales volumes, with an organic net revenue growth forecast of approximately 6%-8% for the full year 2025 [3] - The report suggests monitoring companies within the vaping supply chain and tobacco supply chain for potential investment opportunities, including Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong [6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [6] Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PMI) reported Q1 2025 revenue of $9.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.8% (10.2% adjusted) [3][4] - Revenue from smoke-free tobacco products reached $3.9 billion in Q1 2025, growing by 15.0% (20.4% adjusted), with its revenue share increasing to 42% from 39% in Q1 2024 [3][4] Summary by Sections Company Performance - PMI's heated tobacco unit (HTU) shipment volume reached 37.1 billion sticks in Q1 2025, an increase of 11.9%, with global market share for HNB products rising to 77% [9] - The number of IQOS users reached 32.2 million by the end of 2024, an increase of 3.6 million [9] Market Insights - In Japan, IQOS market share increased by 3.0 percentage points to 32.2% in Q1 2025 [9] - In Europe, IQOS products saw approximately 7.4% growth in Q1 2025, with market share in the EU rising by 1.2 percentage points to 11.4% [9] Product Growth - Nicotine pouch sales grew rapidly, with a shipment increase of 27.2% in Q1 2025, and the U.S. market saw a 53% increase in shipments [9] - PMI expects smoke-free product sales to grow by 12%-14% in 2025, with HTU products projected to grow by 10%-12% [9] Investment Opportunities - Recommended companies to watch include Yingqu Technology, Smoore International, and nicotine pouch-related companies due to the industry's growth potential [9]

Core Viewpoint - The strong performance of Philip Morris International's (PMI) Q1 2025 results indicates significant growth potential for the heated tobacco product (HNB) market, which is relevant for Smoore International as a key supplier in this sector [1][2] Group 1: Company Performance - Smoore International's stock rose over 3%, currently trading at 13 HKD with a transaction volume of 73.1681 million HKD [1] - PMI's Smoke-Free Products (SFP) revenue increased by 20.4% year-on-year, with gross profit rising by 33.1% and a gross margin exceeding 70%, up by 6.7 percentage points [1] - The shipment volume for PMI's products grew by 14.4% year-on-year, with HNB, oral tobacco, and e-cigarettes increasing by 12%, 27%, and 107% respectively [1] Group 2: Market Insights - The international tobacco giants are advancing their smoke-free strategies, with PMI's Q1 performance aligning with expectations for HNB growth, particularly in the U.S. market [2] - The HNB market has substantial growth potential, with regulatory advantages over vaping products, including lower appeal to youth and easier harm reduction validation [2] - The competitive landscape for HNB is favorable due to fewer participating manufacturers, and British American Tobacco's new Glo Hilo product shows significant improvements in performance and user experience compared to both leading products and previous generations [2]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the home furnishing sector, new tobacco, and light consumer goods, while indicating a cautious stance on the paper packaging industry due to weak demand and unclear tariff trends [4][6][16][19]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector shows signs of recovery with a 29.5% year-on-year increase in retail sales in March, driven by consumption subsidies. However, Q1 earnings for many companies are expected to face pressure [6][13]. - The new tobacco sector is poised for growth as regulatory actions against illegal e-cigarettes in the U.S. may expand the compliant market, with companies like Smoore International showing strong confidence through significant share purchases [19]. - The paper packaging industry is currently experiencing weak pricing trends due to seasonal demand and uncertain tariff impacts, with recommendations to focus on companies with lower exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic retail sales of furniture increased by 29.5% year-on-year in March, and 18.1% for the first three months of the year, reflecting the impact of consumption subsidies [6][13]. - Companies like Sophia and Gujia Home are highlighted for their strategic positioning and potential for earnings recovery, with Sophia's PE ratio at 12x indicating significant valuation upside [13]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on domestic leaders with high dividend support and attractive valuations in the home furnishing sector [6][13]. New Tobacco Sector - The U.S. is increasing regulatory scrutiny on illegal e-cigarettes, which may benefit compliant brands and the overall market expansion [19]. - Smoore International is recommended due to its competitive positioning and growth potential in the heated tobacco product (HNB) segment, supported by its collaboration with British American Tobacco [19]. Paper Packaging Sector - The report notes a weak pricing environment for paper products, with prices for various types of paper remaining stable or declining slightly as of April 18 [16]. - The packaging sector is expected to benefit from new consumer electronics subsidies, with companies like Yutong Technology positioned favorably due to their limited exposure to U.S. tariffs [16]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food sector shows strong growth, with a 23% increase in GMV for Q1, while baby diaper sales also saw a significant rise [17]. - The report highlights the potential for brands like Bubble Mart and Guibao Pet to capitalize on the growing domestic market and consumer trends [17]. Two-Wheel Vehicles - The sector is experiencing a positive trend driven by the "old-for-new" policy, with Q1 production up 25% year-on-year to 11 million units [18]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with integrated supply chains and strong product performance as the market continues to recover [18].

证券研究报告 | 2025年04月15日 轻工制造行业周报（25 年第 15 周） 优于大市 美国对等关税对轻工行业的影响梳理 本周研究跟踪与投资思考：近期美国"对等关税"政策反复，外销链出现大 幅回调。当前政策仍有博弈空间，考虑到轻工业海外其他地区的产能承接与 替代性较低、美国制造业回流难度较大与关税压力存在转移手段，具备美国 本土产能或品类加价倍率高的代工企业预计短期更安全。 美国"对等关税"政策反复扰动出口市场。4 月 3 日，美国宣布对所有进口 商品普遍性加征 10%"最低基准关税"，同时对与其贸易逆差较大的经济体 征收额外对等关税，其中柬埔寨 49%、越南 46%、泰国 36%、中国 34%、印尼 32%、印度 26%、韩国 25%、日本 24%、欧盟 20%，符合美墨加贸易协定的商 品免征关税。4 月 9 日，美国进一步宣布继续对我国产品加税至 125%，同时 对不采取报复行动的国家实施 90 天关税暂缓。本次美国对全球征税范围广、 幅度大，超出市场预期，高税额地区主要为我国与我国转口贸易地东南亚， 目前政策尚有博弈空间，若政策落地无论是国内直接出口或是转口贸易预计 均将受到较大冲击。 轻工外销公 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [3] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, particularly those driven by domestic demand, such as Sun Paper, Xianhe Co., Sophia, and others [2] - Recent buyback announcements from companies like Yutong Technology and Simoer International reflect confidence in their growth prospects, suggesting opportunities for investment in oversold stocks [2] - The report highlights the potential for Chinese companies to gain greater influence in the IP licensing space, particularly in the IP toy industry, as they scale up and improve their product offerings [2] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Performance - The light industry manufacturing sector underperformed the market, with a decline of 5.84% compared to a 2.87% drop in the CSI 300 index [16] - Sub-sectors such as home goods, paper, and entertainment products also showed significant declines [16] Home Furnishing - The report notes a narrowing decline in residential sales and construction, with a 1-2 month drop of 17.8% in residential completion and a 3.4% decrease in sales [35] - Companies like Oppein Home and others are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of improving industry dynamics [5] Paper and Packaging - Paper prices have shown mixed trends, with double glue paper at 5387.5 CNY/ton, down 37.5 CNY/ton, while corrugated paper prices increased slightly [5] - The report indicates a 1.9% year-on-year decline in revenue for the paper industry in the first two months of the year [70] Consumer Goods - The report suggests a focus on cultural and creative product leaders like Morning Glory, which are expected to benefit from a recovering domestic consumption environment [5] - Companies in the personal care sector are also recommended for their channel expansion and price increases [7] Export Chain - The report discusses the impact of U.S. tariffs on exports, noting that some countries have received a 90-day delay on tariffs, which benefits companies with established overseas production [7] - Companies like Zhejiang Natural and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities in the export chain [7] New Tobacco Products - The report mentions Simoer International's stock buyback as a sign of confidence amid regulatory changes in the e-cigarette market [7] - The focus on compliance and harm reduction in the tobacco industry is emphasized as a growing trend [7] Textile and Apparel - The textile and apparel sector also underperformed, with a 5.72% decline in the index [25] - Companies like Hailan Home and others are recommended as potential investments due to their brand strength [7]

Investment Rating - The report provides a positive investment outlook for various sectors, particularly recommending companies in the home furnishing, new tobacco, light consumer goods, and paper packaging industries [5][23][24][26]. Core Insights - The home furnishing sector is expected to stabilize with the introduction of consumer subsidies, leading to improved order intake for many companies [5][19]. - New tobacco products, particularly from Smoore International, are anticipated to benefit from market expansion despite tariff challenges [23]. - The paper packaging industry is facing high pulp inventory levels, which may slow down profit recovery, but consolidation efforts are expected to improve competition [24]. - The light consumer goods sector, especially in pet products, is likely to see accelerated domestic brand growth due to increased tariffs on imports [26]. Summary by Sections Home Furnishing Sector - Domestic sales are improving as consumer subsidies are rolled out, with expectations for further stimulus policies [5][19]. - Companies like Gujia Home and Sophia are highlighted for their strong market positions and growth potential [5][19]. - Export challenges due to increased tariffs are noted, but companies with strong domestic sales channels are expected to perform well [5][19]. New Tobacco - Smoore International is positioned to adapt to tariff impacts due to its production capabilities in Indonesia [23]. - The electronic cigarette market is expected to maintain consumer demand despite potential price increases from tariffs [23]. - The overall market for compliant brands is projected to expand, providing growth opportunities [23]. Paper Packaging - High pulp inventory levels are suppressing price increases, with a slow recovery in profitability expected [24][25]. - The acquisition of Zhongliang Packaging by Aorijin is expected to enhance competitive dynamics in the industry [24]. - The introduction of new consumer electronics subsidies is anticipated to benefit leading packaging companies [24]. Light Consumer Goods - The pet food market is expected to see a shift towards domestic brands as tariffs on imports increase [26]. - Companies like Guibao Pet are positioned to capture market share due to their competitive pricing and product quality [26]. - The AI glasses segment is highlighted for its growth potential, with recommendations to focus on key supply chain players [26].