Core Viewpoint - After the weakening of tariff frictions, the manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, although industry differentiation has intensified, indicating ongoing pressure in the real estate sector [1]. Manufacturing Sector - In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting a seasonal rebound [2]. - The purchasing index rebounded, suggesting that enterprises are gradually adapting to external disturbances, shifting from cautious expansion to a more positive outlook for future production [2]. - There is a notable divergence between large and small enterprises, with large enterprises continuing to expand while small enterprises are further contracting [2]. Supply and Demand - The overall supply and demand index in June showed a seasonal recovery, with certain industries like food, beverages, and specialized equipment in the expansion zone [3]. - The recovery in supply and demand is attributed to the easing of tariff frictions and the positive impact of fiscal policies, particularly in equipment renewal [3]. - Conversely, industries such as non-metallic mineral products and black metal smelting continue to experience contraction due to insufficient end-demand driven by real estate pressures [3]. Price Index - The manufacturing price index increased in June, primarily driven by rising oil prices due to tensions in the Middle East, while the price index for the black metal smelting industry continued to decline [3]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The service sector's business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, indicating stability, but several industries, including retail and transportation, fell below the critical point after the May Day holiday effect faded [3]. - The construction sector showed a seasonal rebound, with civil engineering activities remaining robust, although demand for commercial housing was weak in the second quarter, potentially dragging down overall construction sentiment [3]. Policy Outlook - With the easing of tariff frictions, addressing low inflation internally is crucial. The government plans to issue the third batch of funds for the old-for-new consumer goods program in July, with expectations for positive policy effects [4]. - Future macroeconomic policies are likely to remain proactive, with a steady and loose monetary policy and accelerated fiscal measures anticipated [4].

6月24日，中国电科与中国邮政签署战略合作协议。根据协议，双方将在科技创新、信息技术赋能、邮 寄业务、金融业务等领域开展全面合作。(人民财讯) ...

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate is preparing for a critical vote on the Trump administration's "Big Beautiful" tax and spending bill, aiming for completion by early next week to meet the July 4 signing goal [1] - Internal divisions within the Republican Party pose challenges to the bill's passage, with key figures expressing concerns over the timeline and policy details [2] - The SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction cap has become a significant point of contention, with the Senate version maintaining a $10,000 cap while the House version proposes raising it to $40,000 [3] Group 2 - The Democratic Party has been excluded from the tax reform negotiations but has successfully challenged and removed several provisions from the bill, including those unrelated to tax, spending, or budget [4] - Democrats are currently working to remove the "capital tax" provision, which has raised concerns about capital flight from the U.S. [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Senate Republicans are unable to force the U.S. Postal Service to eliminate electric vehicles and charging equipment from tax and budget proposals [1]

Core Viewpoint - The United States Postal Service (USPS) has temporarily suspended the acceptance of international mail destined for Israel due to insufficient transportation options or service disruptions [1] Group 1 - The USPS has issued a notice advising customers not to send items to Israel until further notice [1]

Core Viewpoint - In May, China's economy demonstrated resilience and stability, with positive growth in industrial production, service sectors, and fixed asset investments, supported by proactive macro policies [1][6]. Industrial Production - In May, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises increased by 5.8% year-on-year and 0.61% month-on-month [2]. - From January to May, the industrial added value grew by 6.3% year-on-year [2]. - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index was at 49.5, up by 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing activity [2]. Service Sector - The service production index rose by 6.2% year-on-year in May, accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]. - From January to May, the service production index increased by 5.9% year-on-year [3]. - The business activity index for the service sector was at 50.2, indicating stable growth, while the business activity expectation index was at 56.5, suggesting positive future expectations [3]. Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, growing by 6.4% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.93% [4]. - The "old-for-new" consumption policy significantly boosted sales in various categories, with home appliances and communication equipment seeing growth rates of 53.0% and 33.0%, respectively [4]. - Online retail sales amounted to 60,402 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, accounting for 24.5% of total retail sales [4]. Fixed Asset Investment - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) totaled 191,947 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7% [5]. - Infrastructure investment grew by 5.6%, while manufacturing investment saw a robust increase of 8.5% [5]. - High-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, experienced significant investment growth rates of 41.4% and 24.2%, respectively [5]. Overall Economic Outlook - The combination of policy effects has led to a stable economic environment, showcasing China's economic resilience and vitality [6]. - However, challenges remain, including external uncertainties and the need to strengthen domestic demand [6].

Core Viewpoint - The service industry in China is experiencing accelerated growth, with a notable increase in the modern service sector, as indicated by the production index and various sub-sector performances [1] Industry Performance - In May, the national service production index grew by 6.2% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sector saw a production index increase of 11.2%, while leasing and business services, and wholesale and retail sectors grew by 8.9% and 8.4% respectively, outperforming the overall service production index by 5.0, 2.7, and 2.2 percentage points [1] - From January to May, the national service production index recorded a year-on-year growth of 5.9% [1] Revenue and Business Activity - For the first four months, revenue from large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.2% year-on-year [1] - The service business activity index for May was at 50.2%, rising by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, while the business activity expectation index stood at 56.5%, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Specific sectors such as railway transport, air transport, postal services, telecommunications, and internet software and IT services reported business activity indices above 55.0%, indicating a high level of economic activity [1]

今年以来，在一系列稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等更加积极有为的宏观政策实施下，制造业和非 制造业景气水平均持续改善，新动能持续向好，企业对市场发展的信心保持稳定。 （作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员） （文章来源：经济日报） 也要看到，外部环境依然复杂严峻，外贸回稳仍有不确定性，需求不足等制约因素仍然存在，企业效益 稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。未来，要进一步加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础。 持续实施各项稳经济政策措施。多措并举扩大内需，稳住国内基本盘，做强国内大循环。用好用足更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。创设新 的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。加大资金 支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消 费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 持续巩固和提升企业效益。培育壮大新质生产力，积极打造一批新兴支柱产业。推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展，加快传统产业转型升级，坚持标准引领，规范竞争秩序。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻 关，创新推出债券市场的"科 ...

Core Insights - The Ministry of Transport released the "2024 Statistical Bulletin on the Development of the Transportation Industry," indicating that China's fixed asset investment in transportation reached 3.8 trillion yuan, maintaining a high level [1] - The national comprehensive transportation network's main skeleton route mileage exceeded 260,000 kilometers, with a completion rate of approximately 90% [1] Investment and Infrastructure Development - In 2024, China's rapid transportation network expanded significantly, with 2,457 kilometers of new high-speed rail lines put into operation, contributing to the ongoing development of the "eight vertical and eight horizontal" high-speed rail network [1] - The total length of highways increased by 7,032 kilometers, with over two-thirds of provinces achieving county-level highway connectivity [1] - Rural road construction investment has remained above 400 billion yuan for eight consecutive years, with 164,100 kilometers of rural roads newly built or renovated in 2024 [1] Transportation Usage and Efficiency - Daily cross-regional travel in China averaged approximately 180 million trips in 2024, reflecting a 5.4% increase from 2023 [3] - The total cross-regional passenger flow reached 64.6 billion trips, while the total freight volume reached 56.9 billion tons, averaging about 160 million tons of goods transported daily, a 3.9% increase from 2023 [2][7] - The postal industry completed a cumulative delivery volume of 193.7 billion items, averaging about 530 million items daily, marking a 19.2% growth [7] Service Expansion and Innovations - The establishment of village-level comprehensive logistics service stations reached 426,700, an increase of 61,600, enhancing delivery service availability in western regions such as Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia [1] - The railway and civil aviation sectors have implemented electronic invoicing, while over 6,500 customized passenger transport routes have been opened in the road sector [7] - The civil aviation flight punctuality rate was 87.1%, maintaining above 80% for seven consecutive years [7]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 发布时间：2025-06-03 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 分析师:崔超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523120001 Email:cuichao@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《2.2%以上，城投开抢？——信用周 报 20240526》 - 2025.05.26 固收点评 景气边际回升，政策仍需发力 ——5 月 PMI 解读 主要数据 5 月制造业 PMI 为 49.5%，前值 49.0%；非制造业商务活动指数 50.3%，前值 50.4%；综合 PMI 为 50.4%，前值 50.2%。 政策宽松力度不及预期，货币政策超预期收紧。 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 核心观点 5 月中美达成关税暂缓执行协议，中美贸易回暖，进口指数和新 出口订单指数回升，带动国内供需回暖，制造业 PMI 环比升高。考虑 到新订单指数仍处于景气线下，企业扩产意愿不强，价格水平继续走 低，外需边际改善对景气水平的提振或有限。美国逆全球化政策对中 国经济存在长期且负面影 ...