Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The current copper market is influenced by the resonance of the US government shutdown - driven risk - aversion demand and the supply shortage caused by the Indonesian mine accident. Copper prices are fluctuating around 85,000. Before these two factors reverse, it is not advisable to easily short copper prices. Although the tariff issue has re - emerged, the "TACO" trading logic still holds, and there is a possibility of a repeat of the Qingming Festival market. For the future market, the current price is high, but shorting should not be done lightly. If one wants to participate, a small - position long - term allocation can be considered [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Electrolytic Copper Market Price - **1.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Market Price**: The Indonesian mine accident has continuously pushed up the ore price. Charts show the market price of 20% copper concentrate, TC price, refined - scrap copper spot price, and copper import profit [7][9][11]. - **1.2 Electrolytic Copper Futures and Spot Market Price**: The mine accident has become the dominant factor. Charts display the Shanghai copper futures - spot price, Yangshan Free Trade Zone premium to LME, and foreign copper futures prices [14][16][18]. - **1.3 Outer - Market Copper Position Data**: Overseas long - position speculation has continued to increase. Charts present overseas exchange inventory, LME copper warehouse receipt composition, LME copper fund position, and COMEX copper non - commercial position [19][20][24]. 3.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory - **2.1 Electrolytic Copper Upstream Supply**: Charts show the net import volume of copper concentrate, electrolytic copper, and scrap copper [29][30][31]. - **2.2 Electrolytic Copper Production and Inventory**: Charts display the monthly production and operating rate of electrolytic copper, production cost and profit, and weekly inventory [34][35][36]. 3.3 Macroeconomic Data and Downstream Consumption - **3.1 US Dollar Index and US Treasury Yield**: Charts show the US dollar index, US Treasury yield spread, US Treasury yield, and the relationship between the US benchmark interest rate and inflation [42][43][45]. - **3.2 US Economic Data**: Charts present US employment data, market confidence index, social retail sales, and inventory data [51][52][53]. - **3.3 Chinese Economic Data**: In July, new loans turned negative, and the PMI was slightly above the boom - bust line. Charts show China's M1, M2 growth rate, new RMB loans, manufacturing PMI, and other data [59][60][64]. - **3.4 Chinese Copper Downstream Consumption Data**: The power grid and new energy sectors provide support. Charts show the monthly demand for electrolytic copper, copper foil operating rate, terminal production growth rate, and fixed - asset investment growth rate [71][72][73].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - Due to the easing of tariff concerns and the expectation of the Fed's monetary easing policy, the copper price showed a strong trend. The shortage of copper mine supply will support the copper price in the medium and long term. The follow - up should focus on the marginal changes in demand and the rhythm of Sino - US tariff negotiations, with the main support level at 84,000 - 85,000 [1]. Alumina - The spot price of alumina is under pressure. Although the current futures price is approaching the mainstream cost range, the upside needs external factors such as supply disturbances in Guinea, rising energy costs, or improved macro - sentiment. It is expected that the short - term spot price will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,800 - 3,000 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum - The macro - level is favorable for the aluminum price, and the fundamentals are in a tight - balance pattern. The high aluminum price restricts downstream procurement, but the low inventory level reflects the resilience of demand. It is expected that the short - term Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The raw material supply and demand contradiction is unresolved, and the post - holiday demand is recovering steadily. The inventory accumulation trend is slowing down, which provides upward momentum for the price. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is in a loose pattern, and the demand has no unexpected performance. The short - term price may rise due to macro - driving, but the fundamentals have limited support for the continuous rise. It is expected to maintain an oscillation, with the main contract in the range of 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the short - term tin price will continue to oscillate. The follow - up should focus on macro - level changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [10]. Nickel - The macro - risk increases, and the cost has support, but the inventory accumulation has certain pressure. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly, with the main contract in the range of 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [12]. Stainless Steel - The macro - risk is amplified, the raw material price is firm, and the cost support exists. However, the peak - season demand fails to meet expectations, and the inventory removal is under pressure. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate weakly, with the main contract in the range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - The macro - uncertainty increases, and the market atmosphere is weak. The supply path is gradually clear, and the peak - season demand and inventory reduction support the price. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate and consolidate, with the main price center in the range of 70,000 - 75,000 yuan [15]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Price and Spread - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.89%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium increased by 60 yuan/ton [1]. - **Alumina**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.86%. The alumina prices in various regions generally declined [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 dropped to 21,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.47% [4]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.45% [8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price dropped to 282,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.74% [10]. - **Nickel**: The price of 1 electrolytic nickel dropped, and the 1 Jinchuan nickel premium increased by 100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel coil dropped to 13,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price dropped to 73,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.61% [15]. Fundamental Data Production and Import/Export - **Copper**: In September, the electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, a decrease of 4.31%. In August, the import volume was 264,300 tons, a decrease of 10.99% [1]. - **Alumina**: In September, the alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, a decrease of 1.74%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, a decrease of 3.16%. In August, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 217,300 tons, a decrease of 31,000 tons [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In September, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 661,000 tons, an increase of 7.48%. In August, the un - forged aluminum alloy ingot import volume was 71,000 tons, an increase of 2.60% [4]. - **Zinc**: In September, the refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, a decrease of 4.17%. In August, the import volume was 25,700 tons, an increase of 43.30% [8]. - **Tin**: In September, the SMM refined tin production was 10,510 tons, a decrease of 31.71%. In August, the refined tin import volume was 1,296 tons, a decrease of 40.19% [10]. - **Nickel**: The Chinese refined nickel production was 36,795 tons, an increase of 0.27%. The import volume was 17,010 tons, a decrease of 3.00% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production was 1.7133 million tons, a decrease of 3.83%. The import volume was 117,200 tons, and the export volume was 447,900 tons [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In September, the lithium carbonate production was 87,260 tons, an increase of 2.37%. The demand was 116,801 tons, an increase of 12.28%. In August, the import volume was 21,847 tons, an increase of 57.79% [15]. Inventory - **Copper**: The domestic social inventory increased to 1.72 million tons, an increase of 15.98%. The SHFE inventory increased to 1.097 million tons, an increase of 15.42% [1]. - **Alumina**: The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased to 649,000 tons, an increase of 5.19% [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The social inventory of regenerated aluminum alloy ingots increased to 56,400 tons, an increase of 1.26% [4]. - **Zinc**: The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased to 163,100 tons, an increase of 15.35% [8]. - **Tin**: The SHFE inventory decreased to 5,879 tons, a decrease of 8.55%. The social inventory decreased to 7,786 tons, a decrease of 1.32% [10]. - **Nickel**: The SHFE inventory increased to 29,572 tons, an increase of 1.75%. The social inventory increased to 43,694 tons, an increase of 7.02% [12]. - **Stainless Steel**: The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased to 504,600 tons, an increase of 6.93% [13]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The total lithium carbonate inventory in September was 665,376 tons, an increase of 0.38%. The downstream inventory increased to 60,919 tons, an increase of 15.29% [15].

刘明康 156 5309 0867 liumingkang@smm.cn 作为全球最大的铜消费国，中国产业链面临三大挑战：上游资源对外依存度攀升、中游加工环节产能过剩、下游 需求受高铜价抑制。为助力行业应对变局，上海有色网携手铜产业链企业联合编制《2026中国铜产业链分布图》 中英双语版，点击此链接即可免费领取铜产业链分布图：https://s.wcd.im/v/470opZ19l/。 SMM联合制作联系人 海关总署数据显示，中国2025年9月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量为48.5万吨，较上月出现回升，为今年以来单月最高， 同比微增1%。1-9月累计进口量为401.9万吨，同比减少1.7%。金九传统需求旺季来临，未锻轧铜及铜材进口量出 现回升。 （文华综合） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper first declined and then rose, with a decrease in open interest, a spot discount, and a weakening basis. Fundamentally, the TC fee has been running in the negative range, and the supply of copper ore has been tightened due to the shutdown of overseas mining areas. On the supply side, smelter production capacity is expected to be limited, and domestic refined copper supply may decrease. On the demand side, downstream enterprises will gradually resume work after the double festivals, but the purchase intention in the spot market is cautious. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the two lines are above the 0 - axis and the green bar has slightly converged. The operation suggestion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper was 85,120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 790 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper was 10,596 dollars/ton, an increase of 78 dollars. The open interest of the main Shanghai copper contract decreased by 14,285 hands to 201,830 hands. The inventory of LME copper decreased by 75 tons to 139,400 tons, and the LME copper cancelled warrants decreased by 75 tons to 8,350 tons. The inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 14,656 tons to 109,690 tons, and the warehouse receipts decreased by 2,856 tons to 32,890 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The price of SMM 1 copper spot was 85,045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,635 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot was 85,105 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,605 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 54 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 48 dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of the CU main contract was - 75 yuan/ton, a decrease of 845 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) was - 31.19 dollars/ton, a decrease of 6.29 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 275.93 million tons, an increase of 19.92 million tons. The production of refined copper was 130.10 million tons, an increase of 3.10 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 485,000 tons, an increase of 55,000 tons. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi was 75,380 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 76,080 yuan/metal ton, a decrease of 1,590 yuan. The processing fee of crude copper in the south increased by 200 yuan to 1,000 yuan/ton, and in the north, it remained unchanged at 700 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The social inventory of copper increased by 0.43 million tons to 41.82 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai increased by 500 yuan to 59,590 yuan/ton; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai increased by 850 yuan to 73,300 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of sulfuric acid (98%) of Jiangxi Copper increased by 30 yuan to 510 yuan/ton [2]. 3.5下游及应用 - The production of copper products was 222.19 million tons, an increase of 5.26 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 379.576 billion yuan, an increase of 48.079 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 6,030.919 billion yuan, an increase of 672.942 billion yuan. The monthly production of integrated circuits decreased by 438,933.60 million pieces to 4,250,287.10 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper increased by 0.49 percentage points to 21.39%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.26 percentage points to 15.92%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0035 percentage points to 21.67%. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options increased by 0.03 to 1.35 [2]. 3.7行业消息 - The Fed's September meeting minutes showed that officials were willing to cut interest rates further this year but were cautious due to inflation concerns. Most participants thought further policy easing might be appropriate, but most also emphasized the upside risk of inflation expectations. The Ministry of Commerce responded to the US's plan to impose a 100% tariff on China, stating that it would take corresponding measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. In September, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.239 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 6% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles were 1.307 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 16% and a month - on - month increase of 17%, with a penetration rate of 58.5%. The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the logistics industry prosperity index in September was 51.2%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. The University of Michigan survey showed that the preliminary consumer confidence index in the US in October decreased slightly to 55. The China Automobile Dealers Association expected the car sales in October to exceed those in September [2].

美联储降息预期提升，有色板块冲高回落 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【有色金属周报】 国贸期货 有色金属研究中心 2025-10-13 分析师：方富强 从业资格证号：F3043701 投资咨询证号：Z0015300 分析师：谢灵 从业资格证号：F3040017 投资咨询证号：Z0015788 助理分析师：陈宇森 从业资格证号：F03123927 助理分析师：林静妍 从业资格证号：F03131200 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 目录 01 有色金属价格监测 02 铜（CU） 03 锌（ZN） 04 镍（NI） 不锈钢（SS) 01 PART ONE 有色金属价格监测 有色金属价格监测 有色金属收盘价格监控 | 有色金属价格监测 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | 有色金属收盘价格监控 | | | | | | | 品 种 | 单 位 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The copper market is in a complex situation. Entering the interest - rate cut cycle provides an upward - driving logic for copper prices. With mining - end disturbances and the expectations of the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, although the market is currently in a state of shock, the copper price is expected to mainly fluctuate upwards as it has previously broken through the shock range [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. The US September CPI report is expected to be postponed from the original October 15 release but may still be released before the Fed's FOMC policy meeting on October 28 - 29. Mining - end disturbances in Chile and Indonesia and the hopeless resumption of production in Panama have intensified market concerns about supply. As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.30 dollars/ton and RC was - 4.03 cents/pound, remaining weakly stable. In September, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month (a 4.31% decline) and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. Future production is expected to continue to decline. The direction of Document No. 770 of 2025 by the National Development and Reform Commission is unclear, which may affect the scrap - copper operating rate. On the demand side, the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, along with new technologies such as new energy vehicles and AI, strengthens downstream expectations. Although the real - estate sector has a negative impact, there is overall rigid support [1]. Periodic and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved up during the day, then declined and closed flat at the end of the session. - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 5 yuan/ton, and in South China was 30 yuan/ton. On October 9, 2025, the LME official price was 10875 dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 8.5 dollars/ton [3]. Supply Side - As of September 30, the spot TC was - 40.3 dollars/ton, and the spot RC was - 4.03 cents/pound [6]. Inventory - SHFE copper inventory was 30,000 tons, an increase of 261 tons from the previous period. As of October 9, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory was 88,200 tons, an increase of 7,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 139,400 tons, an increase of 275 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 338,200 short tons, an increase of 2,638 short tons from the previous period [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the text. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - US employment data showed an unexpected decline, far lower than market expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to implement further monetary easing policies [5]. - China's manufacturing PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points, non - manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 percentage points, and the comprehensive PMI output index rose by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight acceleration in overall economic output expansion [5]. - The US government "shutdown" increased overseas macro - uncertainty, and the release of economic data was delayed, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to make accurate monetary policies [5]. - Due to the mud accident at the Indonesian mine, copper supply was disrupted. Domestic smelters were in a high - maintenance period, and refined copper production was expected to decline, but inventory would increase [5]. - High copper prices may suppress consumption in the short - term, but in the medium - term, copper prices are likely to remain high and volatile [5]. 3.2 Multi - empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Refined copper production is expected to decline, and the copper concentrate processing fee remains low, indicating tight supply at the mine end [8]. - **Bearish Factors**: Social inventory is accumulating, high copper prices may suppress consumption, and overseas macro - uncertainty has increased [8]. - Overseas political fluctuations have increased, further strengthening the market's expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [9]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Copper Ore Imports**: In August, China's copper ore and concentrate imports were 2.759 million tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August were 20.054 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9% [20]. - **Copper Concentrate TC**: As of the week of September 26, the Mysteel standard clean copper concentrate TC weekly index was - 40.68 US dollars per dry ton, up 0.66 US dollars per dry ton from the previous week. The mud accident at the Indonesian mine increased market concerns about copper supply [24]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In August, China's refined copper output was 1.301 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. In October, domestic smelters will conduct large - scale maintenance, which may lead to a phased tightening of refined copper supply [28]. - **Scrap Copper Imports**: In August, China's scrap copper imports were 179,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. The decline was due to factors such as import losses, extreme weather, and reduced overseas exports [32]. - **Copper Products Output**: In August, China's copper products output was 2.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.8% and a month - on - month increase of 2%, reaching a high level in the same period over the years [36]. - **Copper Consumption**: The price of refined copper spot has risen significantly, which is not conducive to refined copper consumption. As of October 9, the refined - scrap spread was around 390 yuan per ton [40]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory continued to decline last week, while SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3.79% in the week of September 30. Domestic social inventory increased, with the electrolytic copper spot inventory reaching 167,900 tons on October 9, an increase of 11,200 tons compared with September 29 [55]. - **Spot Premium**: On October 9, the spot premium of Shanghai Wumaotrade 1 copper changed from discount to premium, and the LME 0 - 3 spot discount narrowed [59]. 3.4 Fundamental Analysis - **Home Appliance Industry**: In August, the output of household refrigerators increased by 2.5% year - on - year, and the output of household air conditioners increased by 9.4% year - on - year. However, in the fourth quarter, the home appliance industry is expected to face pressure of slowing growth [44]. - **Real Estate Industry**: In August, real estate sales, investment, new construction, and completion all declined year - on - year. Although some first - tier cities have introduced policies to support the market, the real estate market is still under pressure, and copper demand in the real estate sector remains weak [48]. - **Automobile Industry**: In August, traditional automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle production and sales also showed strong growth, with a year - on - year increase of 27.4% and 26.8% respectively, and the market demand is strong [52]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Short - term copper prices are likely to remain high, which may suppress consumption and pose a risk of adjustment and decline. In the medium - term, the strategy of buying on dips remains unchanged [5][62].

多空因素交织 一方面，铜价金融属性预计增强，宏观面干扰因素增多难对铜价形成实质性利好；另一方面，线缆产业链整体库存偏高，消费端预计以平稳回升为主。 9月以来，铜价整体表现偏强，价格中枢有所上移。一方面，市场对美联储年内降息的预期增强；另一方面，海外铜矿运营出现扰动，共同对铜价形成支 撑。国内长假期间，美国政府"停摆"推升了市场避险情绪，黄金价格持续上涨也对铜价有所带动。 消费端平稳回升 前期国内线缆企业整体表现清淡，行业开工率维持在70%左右，库存有所累积，淡季特征明显。"十四五"期间，国家电网配电网建设投资超过1.2万亿元，占 电网总投资的60%以上；南方电网也规划配电网投资约3200亿元，占比达48%。叠加分布式光伏与用户侧储能的快速发展，配网建设持续推进。今年作 为"十四五"收官之年，四季度线缆行业产销有望加速。不过，当前线缆产业链整体库存偏高，消费拉动作用预计以平稳回升为主。 按照正常季节性规律，空调行业生产近期将逐步启动，铜管行业有望自10月起产销回暖。由于今年铜管企业采销策略普遍谨慎，库存压力不大，空调产业链 对铜消费的拉动将逐步显现。此外，当前正值汽车产销旺季，在新能源汽车的持续带动下，汽车行业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - Yesterday, copper prices continued to rise, driven by a weak US dollar and supply shortages. Macroscopically, the US government's shutdown and weak employment data led to expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed. Fundamentally, supply shortages in copper mines, such as the ongoing shutdown of the Grasberg mine and disruptions in other mines, have strengthened the support for copper prices. The主力 is advised to focus on the support level of 84,000 - 85,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - Alumina futures prices fluctuated widely, with the main contract closing down 0.28%. Spot prices in various regions generally declined, and the supply was abundant. The supply pressure persisted, with high domestic operating capacity and increasing overseas production. The demand was weak, with electrolytic aluminum plants having high raw material inventories and low procurement enthusiasm. It is expected that the short - term spot price of alumina will remain under pressure, with the main contract oscillating between 2,850 - 3,050 yuan/ton. - Shanghai aluminum futures prices fluctuated strongly, with the main contract moving up to around 21,000 yuan/ton. The market was affected by macro factors such as the US government shutdown and expectations of Fed rate cuts. In terms of supply, domestic electrolytic aluminum production declined slightly in September, and the proportion of molten aluminum increased. The demand showed structural characteristics, with some sectors improving but high aluminum prices suppressing downstream orders. After the holiday, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased, and the spot premium was under pressure. It is expected that Shanghai aluminum will maintain a high - level oscillation pattern in the short term, with the main contract operating between 20,700 - 21,300 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy futures prices strengthened with the rise of aluminum prices, and the SMM spot ADC12 price also increased. The cost was supported by the rise of LME aluminum during the holiday and the tight supply of scrap aluminum. The supply was affected by raw material shortages and unclear tax policies, and the demand showed a mild recovery but with limited volume. The domestic social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased, and the import loss expanded. It is expected that the short - term ADC12 price will maintain a high - level oscillation, with the main contract operating between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Zinc prices maintained a strong operation, supported by low inventory and a weak US dollar. The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, and the US government shutdown led to a weak US dollar index. Domestically, the supply was expected to be loose, and the demand was not outstanding. The "strong outside, weak inside" pattern of zinc prices has been obvious since the second half of 2025. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc may rise due to macro - driving factors, but the fundamentals have limited elasticity for continuous upward movement. It may maintain an oscillation pattern, with the main contract between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [7]. Tin - Tin prices strengthened. The supply of tin ore remained tight, with low processing fees for smelters. Domestic tin ore imports in August were at a low level, and the crackdown on illegal tin mines in Indonesia before the holiday increased supply concerns. The demand was weak, with insufficient orders in the solder industry due to the sluggish consumer electronics and home appliance markets. Although AI computing power and photovoltaic industry growth drove some tin consumption, it was not enough to make up for the decline in traditional consumption. It is expected that tin prices will continue to oscillate strongly in the short term. The follow - up depends on the supply recovery in Myanmar. If the supply recovers, prices may weaken; otherwise, they may remain high [9]. Nickel - After the holiday, the nickel market showed a strong trend, driven by macro - sentiment and the overall boost of the non - ferrous sector. The US government shutdown and the uncertainty of the Fed's rate - cut path affected the market. In the industry, the policy expectations for the Indonesian nickel ore end have increased. The nickel ore price remained firm, but the nickel - iron market was sluggish, and the demand for stainless steel was weak. The demand for nickel sulfate was good in the peak season, but there were concerns about new production capacity and sustainable demand in the medium term. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate strongly in the short term, with the main contract between 120,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [11]. Stainless Steel - On the first trading day after the holiday, the stainless steel market rose slightly, affected by macro factors. The nickel ore price was firm, the nickel - iron price was weakly stable, and the chromium - iron market was driven by demand and cost. The supply pressure was increasing, with an expected increase in steel production in September. The demand improvement was not obvious, and the social inventory decline was slow. It is expected that the short - term stainless steel price will oscillate and adjust, with the main contract between 12,600 - 13,200 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - On the first trading day after the holiday, the lithium carbonate market oscillated. The main contract LC2511 rose 0.27%. The supply - side news included the approval of mining reports by Guoxuan High - tech and the acquisition of a mining license by Zangge Mining. The fundamentals were in a tight balance during the peak season. The production increased last week, mainly from new salt - lake projects and increased lithium - spodumene subcontracting. The demand was optimistic, with expected increases in iron - lithium and ternary orders. The whole - chain inventory continued to decline last week, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream seasonal restocking. It is expected that the short - term lithium carbonate price will oscillate, with the main price center between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [14]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose to 85,740 yuan/ton, up 3.00% from the previous day. The premium/discount of SMM 1 electrolytic copper remained unchanged at 15 yuan/ton. Other copper prices also showed varying degrees of increase, and the refined - scrap price difference increased by 11.13% [1]. Fundamental Data - In September, electrolytic copper production was 1.121 million tons, down 4.31% month - on - month. In August, electrolytic copper imports were 264,300 tons, down 10.99% month - on - month. The inventory of copper concentrates at domestic ports decreased, and the operating rates of copper rod production decreased [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum rose to 20,960 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The premium/discount decreased. Alumina prices in various regions declined. The import loss of aluminum increased, and the monthly spread showed different changes [3]. Fundamental Data - In September, alumina production was 7.6037 million tons, down 1.74% month - on - month, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.6148 million tons, down 3.16% month - on - month. The operating rates of some aluminum processing industries increased slightly, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 prices in different regions increased by about 0.95 - 0.96%. The refined - scrap price differences in different regions also increased. The monthly spread showed different changes [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased slightly, while the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased. The import and export of unforged aluminum alloy ingots increased. The operating rates of some enterprises showed different trends, and the social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased slightly [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot rose to 22,140 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The import loss decreased slightly, and the monthly spread changed [7]. Fundamental Data - In September, refined zinc production was 600,100 tons, down 4.17% month - on - month. In August, refined zinc imports increased by 43.30%. The operating rates of zinc - related industries decreased slightly, and the inventory of zinc showed different changes [7]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin rose to 284,200 yuan/ton, up 2.53%. The LME 0 - 3 premium/discount decreased significantly [9]. Fundamental Data - In August, tin ore imports decreased slightly. In September, SMM refined tin production decreased by 31.71% month - on - month. The inventory of tin decreased in different markets [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose to 123,600 yuan/ton, up 0.94%. The import loss increased, and the monthly spread changed [11]. Supply and Inventory - China's refined nickel production increased slightly, while imports decreased. The inventory in different markets showed different trends, with an increase in LME inventory [11]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B stainless steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan showed different trends. The raw material prices were relatively stable, and the monthly spread changed slightly [12]. Fundamental Data - The production of 300 - series stainless steel in China decreased slightly, while imports increased and exports increased slightly. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased slightly [12]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained stable, and the price of lithium - spodumene concentrate decreased. The monthly spread changed [14]. Fundamental Data - In September, lithium carbonate production increased, and the demand also increased. The inventory decreased in different links, with upstream smelters reducing inventory and downstream increasing inventory [14].

10月9日，A股市场放量走强，三大指数全线上涨。黄金、稀土、核聚变、铜产业、存储芯片等板块表 现亮眼，整个市场超3100只股票上涨。机构认为，在多种因素综合影响下，A股有望延续震荡上行态 势。 "国家支持和鼓励正常的市场竞争，对价格无序竞争的经营者，公告提出三方面监管措施。"上述负责人 表示，一是提醒告诫。对涉嫌价格无序竞争的经营者进行提醒告诫，要求其自觉规范价格行为，严守价 格竞争底线。二是监管执法。（下转A02版） （上接A01版）对提醒告诫后仍未规范价格行为的经营者予以重点关注，必要时开展成本调查、价格监 督检查，发现价格违法违规问题的，依法予以查处。三是失信惩戒。充分发挥信用监管作用，依法依规 实施失信惩戒。 依法依规治理企业无序竞争 在规范招标投标行为方面，公告明确，经营者应当严格遵守《中华人民共和国招标投标法》《中华人民 共和国招标投标法实施条例》规定，自觉规范招标投标行为，不得以低于成本的报价竞标，保障产品和 服务质量。 ● 本报记者 欧阳剑环 国家发展改革委10月9日消息，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局近日印发《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护 良好市场价格秩序的公告》。公告根据现行法律法规，按照事前 ...