Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Industrial and Information Technology Department has issued a work plan aimed at stabilizing growth in the non-ferrous metal industry, targeting a 5% increase in the industry's added value by 2026, with specific production and revenue goals for copper and aluminum sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Main Goals - By 2026, the added value of the non-ferrous metal industry in Shandong is expected to grow by approximately 5%, with cathode copper production reaching around 1.7 million tons, a 3% increase year-on-year [1] - Copper processing product output is projected to reach about 600,000 tons, reflecting a 4% year-on-year growth [1] - The total output value of the copper industry is anticipated to exceed 200 billion yuan, with leading levels in comprehensive energy consumption and recovery rates [1] - The aluminum industry is expected to achieve revenues exceeding 660 billion yuan, with over 35% of electrolytic aluminum production meeting benchmark energy efficiency standards [1] Group 2: Key Tasks - Establish a diversified recycling resource system, focusing on creating copper and aluminum recycling bases and enhancing recycling efficiency through platforms [2] - Strengthen overseas resource cooperation by signing long-term procurement agreements for copper and aluminum ores with countries like Chile and Guinea [2] - Develop specialized industrial clusters for copper and aluminum, enhancing competitiveness through high-end manufacturing and technological advancements [3] - Promote the extension of the industrial chain in both copper and aluminum sectors, focusing on high-end applications in renewable energy and electronics [4] Group 3: Innovation and Sustainability - Build collaborative innovation platforms to accelerate the transformation of scientific research into industrial applications, particularly in new materials [4] - Focus on overcoming technological bottlenecks in high-end materials and promote the use of AI in the non-ferrous metal industry to enhance production efficiency [4] - Implement green transformation initiatives to reduce energy consumption and emissions in the copper and aluminum industries [5] - Accelerate digital upgrades in the industry, fostering smart factories and digital workshops to improve operational efficiency [5] Group 4: Market Expansion - Promote the upgrade of bulk consumption in sectors like new energy vehicles and aerospace, ensuring the supply of high-performance copper and aluminum products [6] - Cultivate emerging consumer markets by expanding the use of aluminum in public facilities and packaging [6] - Encourage the export of high-end processed copper and aluminum products, supporting companies in entering international markets [6][7] Group 5: Support Measures - The provincial government will coordinate efforts across departments to implement the outlined tasks, ensuring financial support for equipment upgrades and technological improvements [7] - Utilize special long-term bonds and insurance policies to guide financial institutions in increasing credit support for enterprises [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Shandong Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued a "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Nonferrous Metal Industry," focusing on creating specialized industrial clusters in the copper and aluminum sectors [1] Copper Industry - The plan emphasizes the development of four major copper industrial clusters: Dongying (coordinated smelting + copper-based new materials), Liaocheng (mining copper smelting + high-end foil material deep processing), Yantai (by-product copper smelting + special rod and wire deep processing), and Linyi (recycled copper smelting + urban mining) [1] - Key technological breakthroughs targeted include 5N high-purity copper, integrated circuit copper alloy target backplanes, high-strength high-conductivity copper alloy rolled foils, ultra-thin lithium battery copper foils, GPU high-speed copper cables, large high-performance easily segregated copper alloys, and dispersion-strengthened copper [1] - The initiative aims to advance the copper industry towards high-end and specialized development, enhancing its core competitiveness [1] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector aims to strengthen four industrial clusters: Binzhou (lightweight aluminum new materials), Liaocheng-Linyi (green recycling of aluminum industry), Yantai (high-end transportation aluminum materials), and Weifang (high-end aluminum innovative applications) [1] - The plan promotes integrated die-casting body components, aluminum parts for high-speed rail, aviation, and power batteries, photovoltaic aluminum frames, aluminum public facilities, and food-grade aluminum foil packaging products [1] - The objective is to expand the application fields, scale, and levels of aluminum materials and products [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-07 需求相对偏淡 但宏观因素令铜价维持偏强态势 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 2026-01-06，沪铜主力合约开于 100890元/吨，收于 105320元/吨，较前一交易日收盘3.92%，昨日夜盘沪铜主力合 约开于104480元/吨，收于 104600 元/吨，较昨日午后收盘下跌0.68%。 现货情况： 据 SMM 讯，昨日SMM 1#电解铜现货报价呈现贴水100元至升水60元区间，均价报贴水20元，较昨日下跌55元。 期铜主力早盘自102880元攀升至104100元后涨幅收窄。市场方面，平水铜由早间升水迅速转为贴水成交，午后贴 水扩大至100-70元，交投迟滞。预计高铜价将继续抑制需求，现货维持贴水格局，但需留意交割前可能的收货行为。 重要资讯汇总： 地缘方面，一名美国高级官员表示，特朗普总统及其团队正在讨论多种获取格陵兰岛的方案，包括从丹麦购买该 领土、与格陵兰建立自由联系协定，军事手段亦被列为选项之一。该官员称，特朗普希望在其本届任期内完成对 格陵兰岛的获取，并表示这一议题"不会消失"。白宫方面将获取格陵兰岛视为国家安全优先事项，尽管部分北约 领导人提出 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - expectation may be slightly better than 2025, but still mainly feature structured fluctuations [2][54] - Supply disturbances may continue, with the mismatch between mining and smelting reaching an extreme, and the demand side may face real - world tests after the hype. The supply side remains one of the main factors driving copper price fluctuations [2][54] - Global copper inventories will continue to accumulate, which may define the high - price copper market as a bubble [2][54] - Copper prices are in the Conjuncture bubble stage, at the end of the strategic long - position and the beginning of the strategic short - position [2][54] 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情简顾 - From 2020 - 2025, copper prices showed different trends. In 2025, copper prices broke through the Conjuncture high, with Shanghai copper rising 31.11% and LME copper rising 42.3%, mainly driven by a sharp increase in the fourth quarter [6] 3.2 2026年分析逻辑 - **Supply side**: The TC long - term price dropped to 0 in 2026, indicating extreme raw material disturbances. The "bullwhip effect" in the mining raw material sector reached its peak in 2025, and 2026 may see a turn [8] - **Demand side**: The global inventory cycle is at the bottom, and it is a weak cycle. Although overseas policies and new demands such as new energy and AI provide some support, the demand side is difficult to become the dominant factor [8] - **Conclusion**: 2026 may be a turning point year. Copper prices are still in the bubble stage, and investors should be vigilant against reverse - V fluctuations [8] 3.3全球经济与资本展望 - **China**: In 2026, as the start of the 15th Five - Year Plan, China is expected to improve. However, due to factors such as the real estate market, the new cycle is a weak one, and the year will still feature structured fluctuations [9][10] - **US**: 2026 is expected to be the end of the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle. There may be potential changes in monetary and fiscal policies, which could bring significant fluctuations to the global market and copper prices [11][12] 3.4基本面分析 3.4.1供应端 - **Upstream mining**: Capital expenditure has been increasing since 2021. 2025 - 2026 may be a turning point for output. Although raw material supply may not improve significantly, the degree of tightness may not exceed 2025 [17][18][20] - **Mid - stream smelting**: The imbalance between raw materials and smelting capacity has led to heavy losses in the smelting sector. In 2026, there is a strong expectation of anti - involution, and TC may turn around [23][24] - **Global inventory**: Global copper inventories have been accumulating since 2024, and this trend is expected to continue in 2026 [28][29] 3.4.2消费端 - **Power sector**: Traditional power consumption remains stable, but the rapid growth in the green - power field has slowed down. New industries will provide long - term demand growth, but currently cannot replace traditional demand [36][37] - **Real estate and auto sectors**: In 2025, the auto industry was booming, while the real estate market continued to be weak. The real - estate market is in the downward phase of its cycle, providing limited support for copper demand [38][39][40] 3.4.3小结 - Supply disturbances are a core feature, and the contradiction between raw material supply and smelting capacity expansion will not change fundamentally in 2026. Demand is insufficient, and new demand cannot become the dominant factor in the short term [49] 3.5技术分析研究 - From the monthly K - line of LME copper, the bull market during the period of global prosperity - recession ended in 2011. The current bull market during the period of global recession - depression may end, and the nominal high may appear in the current upward cycle. The market in the depression period features extreme and volatile price movements [51] 3.6结论和建议 - **Research conclusion**: Similar to the core views of the report, including better global macro - expectations in 2026, continued supply disturbances, inventory accumulation, and copper prices in the bubble stage [54] - **Operation suggestions**: The high point in 2021 is the end of the strategic long - position. In the bubble stage, investors should focus on defense during the upward phase and seize opportunities during the downward phase, with key price levels of around $10,000/ton for LME copper and 80,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper [55]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The copper concentrate TC processing index in the raw material end of the fundamentals declines slightly, and the expectation of tight ore persists, so the cost - support logic of copper prices is solid. The supply of refined copper in China will gradually slow down. The high - level copper price restrains downstream purchases, and the spot market trading sentiment becomes cautious. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and cautious demand, with accumulated social inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility rises slightly. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows an upward trend. The report suggests light - position short - term long trading at low prices, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 105,320 yuan/ton, up 3,970 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,342 US dollars/ton, up 350.5 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 120 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 223,647 lots, up 7,332 lots. The position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 45,864 lots, down 3,287 lots. LME copper inventory is 142,550 tons, down 2,775 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 145,342 tons, up 33,639 tons. The LME copper注销仓单 quantity is 32,650 tons, down 2,125 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipt of cathode copper is 93,271 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 103,665 yuan/ton, up 3,090 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 100,660 yuan/ton, up 1,325 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 47 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 37.5 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 1,655 yuan/ton, down 880 yuan. The LME copper premium (0 - 3) is 41.98 US dollars/ton, up 3.38 US dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 74,700 tons. The rough smelting fee (TC) of domestic copper smelters is - 44.98 US dollars/thousand tons, down 0.08 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 90,920 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan; the price in Yunnan is 91,620 yuan/metal ton, up 1,300 yuan. The south processing fee of blister copper is 2,000 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan; the north processing fee is 1,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 1.236 million tons, up 32,000 tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 430,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 418,200 tons, up 4,300 tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 68,590 yuan/ton, up 620 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 82,950 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 2.226 million tons, up 222,000 tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 2.15 million pieces [2] 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 24.32%, up 2.51 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility is 19.54%, up 1.85 percentage points. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money IV is 30.27%, up 0.0294 percentage points. The put - call ratio of at - the - money options is 1.49, down 0.0065 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing index dropped slightly from 48.2 to 47.9, remaining below 50 for 10 consecutive months and hitting a new low since October 2024. Premier Li Qiang of the State Council conducted research in Guangdong, emphasizing the improvement of the industrial ecosystem. Nine departments including the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued a document to promote green consumption. The preliminary estimate of the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in December 2025 is 1.57 million, with a year - on - year increase of 4% and a month - on - month decrease of 8%. The cumulative wholesale volume in 2025 is 15.33 million, with a year - on - year increase of 25%. Gree Electric Appliance promised not to increase the price of household air - conditioners and has no "aluminum for copper" plan [2]

Report Overview - **Report Title**: Copper and Aluminum Weekly Report - **Report Date**: January 5, 2026 - **Research Focus**: Copper and aluminum futures market analysis 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: After the holiday, copper prices showed little fluctuation. Post - holiday, attention should be paid to the long - short game at the 100,000 mark. In December, the monetary policies of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan were implemented, market liquidity recovered, and capital risk appetite was high. Macro factors drove copper prices up, while the industry followed passively, with the basis and monthly spreads showing weak performance. Although the short - term upward momentum of copper prices is strong, they are at a historical high. The domestic industrial pressure (high inventory, weak consumption) contradicts the strong macro expectations. Short - term futures prices may need to consolidate through fluctuations and wait for the industry to catch up [5]. - **Aluminum**: With the strong performance of copper prices, aluminum prices are making up for lost ground. Attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average. In December, aluminum prices broke through the 22,000 mark and approached 23,000, mainly benefiting from the sector effect brought by the continuous rise of copper prices and the increasing expectation of aluminum replacing copper in home appliances. Before the holiday, the copper - aluminum ratio declined from a high level, and the short - term make - up increase of aluminum prices was obvious. At the industrial level, the basis and monthly spreads remained weak, and the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased significantly. Although the short - term upward momentum of aluminum prices is limited, as long as copper prices remain strong, aluminum prices may continue to make up for lost ground [6]. 3. Directory Summary 3.1 Macro Factors - During the double - holiday period last week, both domestic and foreign funds had a strong willingness to take profits, causing copper prices to decline from a high level. Additionally, the continuous rise of the US dollar index put pressure on copper prices [10]. 3.2 Copper 3.2.1 Quantity and Price Trends - No specific analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than the graphical data presentation, including copper futures price trends, copper Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [13][17][18]. 3.2.2 Copper Mine Shortage - On January 2, 2026, a strike began at the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile, owned 70% by Capstone Copper and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials. About half of the workers participated in the strike. The mine is expected to produce 29,000 - 32,000 tons of copper in 2025. During the strike, production will drop to 30% of the normal level, potentially tightening the global copper supply. Copper prices soared 42% in 2025, and this event may put upward pressure on copper prices in early 2026 [25]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Copper Inventory Accumulation - On December 31, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic copper was 247,100 tons, a weekly increase of 44,900 tons. The COMEX + LME inventory was 645,500 tons, a weekly increase of 5,500 tons. The continuous rise of short - term copper prices significantly suppressed downstream consumption, leading to an increase in inventory [27]. 3.2.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - SMM estimated that the total output of the copper rod industry in December would decline by 45,000 tons month - on - month to 1 million tons. In terms of the operating rate, the operating rate of electrolytic copper rod enterprises was 65.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 7.53 percentage points. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 19.61%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.23 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 16.73 percentage points [29]. 3.3 Aluminum 3.3.1 Quantity and Price Trends - Similar to copper, no in - depth analysis of quantity and price trends is provided other than graphical data, including aluminum price trends, aluminum Shanghai - London ratio, and other relevant indicators [33][41][34]. 3.3.2 Upstream Industry Chain - On December 31, 2025, the port inventory of bauxite was 26.0207 million tons, a decrease of 59,300 tons from the previous week and an increase of 8.2107 million tons compared with the same period in 2024. Before the holiday, alumina prices rebounded significantly. It is believed that the macro - economic recovery drove its rebound from a low level. Its price elasticity is greater than that of electrolytic aluminum, which may lead to a decline in the profit of electrolytic aluminum plants from a high level [43][44]. 3.3.3 Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory - On December 29, 2025, the Mysteel social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 638,000 tons, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week. On December 31, the overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory was 515,500 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from the previous week. Last week, the overseas and domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories showed a divergence. The low - level depletion of overseas electrolytic aluminum inventory provided support for aluminum prices [48]. 3.3.4 Downstream Initial - stage Industry - Last week, the processing fee of aluminum rods continued to decline with fluctuations. As aluminum prices rose to the 23,000 level, downstream buyers showed obvious fear of high prices, and the operating rate may continue to decline. On January 1, 2026, the aluminum rod inventory was 99,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from the previous week [51][55]. 3.4 Conclusion - **Copper**: The conclusion is consistent with the core view, emphasizing the impact of macro factors on copper prices, the contradiction between industrial pressure and macro expectations, and the need to focus on the long - short game at the 100,000 mark [56]. - **Aluminum**: The conclusion is also in line with the core view, highlighting the make - up increase of aluminum prices due to the strong performance of copper prices, the weak industrial basis and monthly spreads, and the need to focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average [56].

Report Title - Supply shortage combined with weak US dollar expectations drive copper prices to new highs - January copper monthly report, released on January 5, 2026 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the copper industry have pushed up copper prices, and demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provides support. Copper prices are expected to remain strong at high levels in the short term, with limited downside potential for corrections. In the medium to long term, copper prices still have upward potential due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades [5][92][93] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In December, copper prices reached new highs. Before the holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper broke through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, with a monthly increase of 12.6%. As of December 31, the closing price of Shanghai copper was 98,240 yuan/ton. Weak US dollar expectations and concerns about supply shortages in the industry pushed up copper prices, while demand from new energy, power, and AI computing still provided support. Traditional off - season led to a slowdown in downstream demand, and domestic copper inventory increased [5] 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Overseas Macroeconomy - US inflation pressure has eased, with the CPI and core CPI in November lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since 2021. However, the accuracy of CPI data is in doubt due to the federal government shutdown. The employment market remains weak, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021. The comprehensive PMI in December hit a six - month low, and the dollar index weakened significantly [11][15] Domestic Macroeconomy - China's price level has rebounded, with the CPI in November rising by 0.7% year - on - year, the highest since March 2024. The PPI decreased by 2.2% year - on - year but increased by 0.1% month - on - month. Social financing growth has recovered, with the cumulative social financing scale from January to November reaching 33.39 trillion yuan, 3.99 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. The official manufacturing PMI in December returned to the expansion range, and the economic sentiment level improved [17][19] 3. Fundamental Analysis Mine Supply - In 2025, there were frequent disruptions in global copper mines, and the ICSG lowered the mine supply growth forecast from 2.3% to 1.4%. From January to October, the global copper concentrate production was 19.139 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.93%, and the growth rate continued to decline. As of December 26, the domestic copper concentrate port inventory was 670,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 24.72% [29] Smelting - Due to the continuous shortage of copper mines, processing fees have reached historical lows. The long - term processing fee benchmark for copper concentrates in 2026 between Chinese leading smelters and Antofagasta is $0/ton and 0 cents/pound, a significant drop from 2025. As of December 31, the spot rough smelting fee for copper concentrates was - $44.76/ton [31] Refined Copper - In December, China's electrolytic copper production was 1.178 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.8% and a year - on - year increase of 7.54%. The cumulative production from January to December increased by 1.372 million tons year - on - year, an increase of 11.38%. The capacity utilization rate in December was 83.30%, a month - on - month increase of 5.12 percentage points [35] Imports and Exports - In November, China's electrolytic copper imports decreased, with a total import volume of 269,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.84% and a year - on - year decrease of 25.20%. Exports increased significantly, with a total export volume of 143,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 116.83% and a year - on - year increase of 1128.13% [39] Scrap Copper - In November, China's scrap copper imports increased, with an import volume of 208,143.09 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.87% and a year - on - year increase of 19.99%. In December, the含税 price difference between refined copper and scrap copper continued to widen due to the sharp increase in copper prices [44] Processing - High copper prices have severely suppressed downstream orders, and the operating rates of refined copper rods and recycled copper rods are under pressure. In December, the high copper prices are expected to suppress the year - end production plans of some enterprises. The copper foil industry has high prosperity, but the high copper prices at the end of the year may suppress the operating rate [45][49] Terminal Demand - In the power sector, investment in power projects has slowed down, but the installed capacity of wind and photovoltaic power has increased steadily. The real estate market is still at the bottom, with new construction, completion, and sales areas all showing significant year - on - year declines. The new energy vehicle industry maintains high prosperity, and the growth rate of home appliance production has slowed down [53][57][60] Inventory - As of January 2, the copper inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 63.49% month - on - month. As of December 31, the domestic social copper inventory increased by 21.84% month - on - month. The COMEX copper inventory continued to increase, while the LME copper inventory decreased slightly [64][71] Premiums and Discounts - In December, the spot premium of Shanghai copper decreased significantly, while the LME copper spot/3 - month turned to a slight premium, and the New York - London copper price difference continued to decline [75] Domestic and Overseas Positions - As of December 31, the trading volume of Shanghai copper increased significantly. As of December 24, the net long positions of LME copper investment companies and credit institutions decreased significantly. As of December 23, the net long positions of COMEX copper asset management institutions continued to increase [77] 4. Technical Analysis - Technically, the price center of Shanghai copper has continuously risen and broken through new highs. After breaking through the 100,000 yuan/ton mark before the holiday and then falling back, the 100,000 yuan/ton mark will become an important psychological and technical dividing line, and it will become an important support level after the copper price breaks through [86] 5. Market Outlook - Fundamentally, the US inflation risk has slowed down, but the employment market is still weak. The Fed still has room for interest rate cuts, and the weak US dollar is expected to boost metal prices. The copper mine supply is continuously tight, and the copper price is expected to remain high and volatile in the short term. In the medium to long term, due to the increasing demand from global energy transformation, AI infrastructure, and power grid upgrades, the copper price still has upward potential. It is recommended to close long positions at high levels and wait and see or go long on dips [92][93]

1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the non - ferrous metals sector has been strengthening. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors. Copper prices may fluctuate, zinc prices are expected to range - bound, and nickel and stainless steel prices may run strongly in the short term [1][9][85][193] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, alumina, and stainless steel, and provides their daily, weekly, and annual price changes [6] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Positive. China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the Fed may cut interest rates [9] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Copper ore supply is tight, and processing fees are low [9] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The losses of smelters using spot copper ore have narrowed slightly, while those using long - term contracts have increased profits [9] - **Demand End**: Negative. High copper prices have led to a decline in downstream demand and a drop in the operating rate of refined copper rods [9] - **Inventory**: Negative. Global copper inventories have increased [9] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The copper price is expected to fluctuate. Although the industrial situation is weak, the positive macro - sentiment and the existence of the US - copper premium have pushed up the copper price. However, there is a short - term adjustment risk. - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for unilateral trading; no arbitrage strategy is recommended [9] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed may cut interest rates, and China's manufacturing PMI has improved [85] - **Raw Material End**: Slightly positive. Domestic zinc concentrate supply is tight, and the cost support for zinc prices is strong [85] - **Smelting End**: Negative. The supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase in January, and the domestic surplus pattern may gradually emerge [85] - **Demand End**: Negative. The operating rate of galvanizing has declined, and environmental protection warnings may affect the operating rate [85] - **Inventory**: Negative. Although the social inventory has decreased, the inventory transfer trend is expected to reverse [85] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to range - bound. The cost center of zinc smelting is stable, and the domestic surplus expectation may gradually appear, but the short - term macro - sentiment is still positive [85] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound for unilateral trading; conduct long - short arbitrage between domestic and foreign markets [85] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Influencing Factors and Driving Forces** - **Macro Factors**: Slightly positive. The Fed's interest - rate cut cycle continues, and China has implemented relevant policies. However, geopolitical risks have resurfaced [193] - **Raw Material End**: Positive. Indonesia plans to reduce nickel ore production, and domestic port inventories are decreasing [193] - **Smelting End**: Neutral. The production of pure nickel has declined slightly, and the production of nickel - iron and stainless steel has also been affected [193] - **Demand End**: Neutral. The social inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the demand for new energy has weakened [193] - **Inventory**: Slightly negative. The global nickel inventory is at a high level, although the accumulation speed has slowed down [193] - **Investment Viewpoint**: The nickel price may run strongly in the short term, but there is a risk of correction in the long term. The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate strongly [193] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on dips for short - term trading for nickel; for stainless steel, go long on dips for short - term trading, and enterprises can wait for opportunities to sell short for hedging [193]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding the report industry investment ratings. Core Views Tin - Market sentiment has fluctuated recently, causing significant volatility in tin prices. Operation should be cautious, and subsequent attention should be paid to macro - economic conditions and supply - side recovery [2]. Zinc - The lower support for zinc prices comes from the tightening domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc ingot inventory, while the upper pressure comes from the expected supply of imported ores. Short - term prices are likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to import profit and loss, TC inflection points, and changes in refined zinc inventory [5]. Copper - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but in the short term, prices are over - estimated irrationally, yet may remain strong due to high market speculation. Attention should be paid to overseas inventory changes and CL premium changes [7]. Nickel - Recently, the nickel market has been driven by Indonesia's tightening expectations, but the actual fundamentals are weak, restricting the upside of prices. The short - term market is expected to remain strong, and attention should be paid to potential price corrections [10]. Stainless Steel - The fundamentals of stainless steel show slightly eased supply pressure and strengthened cost support, but demand in the off - season is still insufficient. The short - term market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to news from the ore end and downstream inventory replenishment [12]. Alumina - The market still faces severe oversupply pressure, and alumina prices are expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash cost line. The key to a trend - based rebound lies in whether there are specific capacity control policies or large - scale production cuts [14]. Aluminum - Strong macro and policy expectations support aluminum prices, but weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will limit the upside. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14]. Aluminum Alloy - The cost is the main driving factor for the price of aluminum alloy. The market is in a tight - balance state with both supply and demand being weak. Prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range in the short term [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals of lithium carbonate remain largely unchanged, with a slight increase in supply expected. The downstream demand has certain resilience but weakens in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate strongly, and price volatility may intensify [16]. Industrial Silicon - In January, industrial silicon is expected to maintain a pattern of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [17]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon spot prices are stable, and futures are oscillating at a high level. In January, demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to production cuts and price adjustment acceptance [18]. Summary by Related Catalogs Tin - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.91%, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 142.86%. The import loss increased by 9.86%, and some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, tin ore imports increased by 29.81%, and in December, SMM refined tin production decreased slightly by 0.06%. Exchange inventories decreased [2]. Zinc - **Price and Spread**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased slightly by 0.09%, and the import loss decreased by 5.78%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [5]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, refined zinc production decreased by 7.24%, and in November, exports increased significantly by 402.59%. Social inventories decreased [5]. Copper - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 1.23%, and the import loss decreased by 46.83%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [7]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80%, and in November, imports decreased by 3.90%. Social inventories increased [7]. Nickel - **Price and Spread**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 3.77%, and the import profit increased by 175.35%. Some month - to - month spreads changed [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and in November, imports increased by 30.08%. Some inventories increased slightly [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spread**: The price of 304/2B stainless steel remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased slightly, and exports increased by 13.18%. Social inventories decreased [12]. Alumina - **Price and Spread**: Alumina prices remained stable, the electrolytic aluminum import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, alumina production increased by 1.08%, and electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97%. Some inventories increased [14]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 1.26%, the import loss decreased, and some month - to - month spreads changed [14]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum production increased, and demand weakened. Social inventories increased [14]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM ADC12 price increased by 0.67%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [15]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of regeneration and primary aluminum alloy increased, and some inventories decreased [15]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spread**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate price increased by 0.42%, and some month - to - month spreads changed [16]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04%, and demand decreased by 2.50%. Inventories decreased [16]. Industrial Silicon - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some industrial silicon products remained unchanged, and some month - to - month spreads changed [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15%, and exports increased by 21.78%. Some inventories increased slightly [17]. Polysilicon - **Price and Spread**: N - type polysilicon prices increased slightly, and some month - to - month spreads changed [18]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, polysilicon production increased by 0.79%, and net exports increased significantly. Inventories increased [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, China's refined copper production is expected to decline slightly, but consumption remains supported, with a tendency for supply to exceed demand. Overseas demand is expected to be slightly weak, while the US tariff expectation continues to push the spot price higher. At the macro - level, the marginal relaxation of US financial liquidity, moderate domestic policy stimulus, and the enhanced strategic resource value due to overseas geopolitical disturbances are still favorable factors. Overall, the copper price is expected to remain at a high level with a slowdown in the upward trend. The operating range of the main SHFE copper contract is expected to be between 92,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton, and the LME 3M copper is expected to be between 11,500 - 13,200 US dollars/ton. The operation suggestion is to wait and see or try to go long after a decline [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Points Summary - **Supply**: Overseas copper mine supply has marginal disturbances, the tight supply pattern of copper mines remains unchanged, and the supply of blister copper is relatively loose. In December 2025, China's refined copper production rebounded, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January [9]. - **Demand**: In December 2025, China's apparent consumption of refined copper is estimated to decline. In January, the downstream start - up is expected to remain stable. Overseas manufacturing prosperity is differentiated, and the demand expectation is slightly weak [9]. - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. The price difference between US copper and LME copper weakened but remained positive [9]. - **Inventory**: In December 2025, the inventories of SHFE and COMEX increased, the LME inventory decreased, the bonded - area inventory remained stable, and the total inventory increased, but there are still structural problems. It is estimated that China's inventory will continue to accumulate in January [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Market Review**: In December 2025, the copper price fluctuated strongly. The main SHFE copper contract rose 12.4% and hit the 100,000 - yuan mark. The LME 3M copper contract rose 11.8%. The US dollar index weakened, and the offshore RMB broke through the 7 - yuan mark [17]. - **Market Spreads**: In December 2025, the loss of SHFE copper spot imports first widened and then narrowed. At the end of the month, the domestic copper price was stronger than the LME copper price. The COMEX - LME copper price difference fluctuated and narrowed, and the expectation of future tariffs continued to support the spread [19]. - **Inventory and Basis**: As of the end of December 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges plus the Shanghai bonded area was about 840,000 tons, an increase of 98,000 tons from the end of November. The LME copper inventory decreased, and the COMEX copper inventory increased. The LME market's Cash/3M strengthened, and the domestic basis weakened [22][25]. - **Fund Sentiment**: As of late December 2025, the CFTC fund position remained net long, with the net - long ratio rising to 22.6%. The long - position ratio of LME investment funds remained relatively high, and the sentiment was positive [28]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Analysis 3.3.1 Supply - **Copper Mines**: In November 2025, Chile's copper production decreased by 7.2% year - on - year to 452,000 tons. In October 2025, Peru's copper production increased by 4.8% year - on - year to 248,000 tons. In December 2025, the inventory of copper concentrates at major Chinese ports rebounded, and the spot supply was slightly loose. The spot TC of copper concentrates fluctuated and declined, and the 2026 annual long - term contract benchmark price was set at 0 US dollars/ton [33][36]. - **Refined Copper**: In December 2025, the domestic blister copper processing fee continued to rise, and the supply of cold materials remained relatively loose. The price of sulfuric acid, a by - product of smelting, strengthened. China's refined copper production increased significantly in December 2025, and it is expected to decrease slightly in January 2026 [39][42]. - **Recycled Copper**: In December 2025, the average price difference between refined and scrap copper in China was about 4,300 yuan/ton, widening month - on - month. The start - up rate of recycled copper rod enterprises remained weak [45]. 3.3.2 Demand - **China**: In December 2025, the apparent consumption of domestic refined copper is estimated to be 1.356 million tons, a significant year - on - year decline. The cumulative apparent consumption from January to December 2025 was about 16.29 million tons, a 4.3% year - on - year increase. The average start - up rate of copper products enterprises is expected to decline in December 2025 and remain stable in January 2026. The start - up rate of refined copper rod enterprises weakened in December 2025, and the start - up rate of wire and cable enterprises is expected to rebound slightly in January 2026. The power investment decreased year - on - year in November 2025, and the new photovoltaic installation decreased year - on - year. The real - estate transaction data in December 2025 was weaker than the same period last year, and the automobile sales data was relatively strong [48][51][54]. - **Overseas**: In December 2025, the manufacturing prosperity of major overseas economies was differentiated. According to ICSG data, the global refined copper consumption increased slightly year - on - year in October 2025, and the consumption from January to October increased by about 5.1% [63]. 3.4 Macro Analysis - In November 2025, the US unemployment rate rose, and inflation data weakened. The Fed's monetary policy is expected to remain loose. In December 2025, the US dollar index fluctuated weakly, and the 10 - year inflation expectation in the US gradually stabilized, showing a relative divergence from the copper price trend [67][69].