Core Points - Angola's first large-scale copper mine, Tetelo, is set to begin production soon, marking a significant step in the country's diversification efforts towards clean energy minerals [2] - The Tetelo mine, valued at $250 million, is expected to produce 25,000 tons of copper concentrate annually during its first two years of operation, starting with open-pit mining and transitioning to underground mining in the second half of 2026 [2] - The production commencement of Tetelo is seen as a milestone for Angola, which is rich in oil resources, as it aims to tap into the copper market, a key metal for the transition to renewable energy [2] - Major companies like Ivanhoe Mines and Anglo American are also involved in copper exploration projects in Angola [2] - China, as the world's largest copper consumer, faces three major challenges: increasing dependence on foreign upstream resources, overcapacity in the midstream processing sector, and suppressed downstream demand due to high copper prices [2] Industry Insights - The copper industry is crucial for the transition to renewable energy, with copper being recognized alongside battery metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel [2] - To assist the industry in navigating these challenges, Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network has collaborated with copper industry enterprises to compile the "2026 China Copper Industry Chain Distribution Map," available in both Chinese and English [2]

Group 1: Iron Ore Production and Demand Outlook - BHP maintains an optimistic outlook on global iron ore demand, supported by strong macroeconomic signals and rising global economic growth expectations [1] - In the three months ending September 30, BHP's iron ore production in Western Australia was 70.2 million tons, slightly below market estimates of 71.55 million tons, and a minor decrease of 0.1% year-on-year [1][2] - The company expects its iron ore production in Western Australia for the fiscal year 2026 to remain unchanged at 284 million to 296 million tons [2] Group 2: Copper Production and Strategic Focus - BHP's copper production increased by 4% to 493,600 tons, primarily due to higher output from the Escondida project in Chile, offsetting declines in other areas [3] - The company has become the world's largest copper producer, with an annual output of approximately 2 million tons, and maintains its copper production forecast for 2026 [3] - BHP's CEO highlighted that production disruptions at competitors' mines have tightened the overall market, benefiting BHP's world-class asset portfolio [3] Group 3: Potash Project Developments - BHP has postponed the expansion plans for the Jansen potash project due to cost overruns and ample market supply, but remains optimistic about potash as a long-term opportunity [3] - The first phase of the Jansen potash project is 73% complete and is expected to start production in 2027, while the second phase is 13% complete [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company aims to become a leading global mining group by leveraging its substantial mineral resources and advanced extraction technologies, focusing on the synergistic development of its three main business segments: potassium, lithium, and copper [3]. Group 1: Business Performance - The company held a performance briefing on October 20, 2025, attended by 304 analysts and investors, discussing the operational performance for the first three quarters of 2025 [1][2]. - Revenue for the first three quarters increased by 3.35% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 34.04% increase in potassium chloride revenue, while lithium carbonate revenue decreased by 64.50% due to market price fluctuations and production halts [5]. - The average sales cost of potassium chloride was 978.69 RMB/ton, a decrease of 19.12% year-on-year, while the average selling price was 2919.81 RMB/ton, an increase of 26.88% year-on-year, resulting in a gross margin of 63.46%, up 20.78 percentage points [5]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - The company plans to optimize potassium chloride production and cost control, with the Laos potassium salt mine serving as a strategic reserve for future growth [3]. - The second phase of the joint venture with Jilong Copper is expected to significantly increase copper production upon commencement [3]. - The lithium carbonate project at the Mami Cuo salt lake is progressing steadily, with production adjustments made for the year due to earlier production halts [6][7]. Group 3: Shareholder Returns - The company has emphasized its commitment to shareholder returns, having distributed a total of 7.4 billion RMB in dividends from 2022 to 2024, with 1.569 billion RMB distributed in the first half of 2025 [4]. Group 4: Cost Control and Efficiency - The company has achieved significant cost control, with a notable reduction in operating costs contributing to improved profitability in the potassium chloride segment [5]. - The company is actively working on reducing environmental impacts through innovative mining techniques in its Laos potassium project [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is focused on enhancing its competitive edge through resource development and technological innovation in its core business areas of potassium, lithium, and copper [8].

Group 1: Investor Relations Activity - The investor relations activity involved 304 analysts and investors from various securities and asset management firms [3] - The meeting took place on October 20, 2025, via the "Cangge Mining Investor Relations" WeChat mini-program [3][4] Group 2: Company Overview and Strategic Goals - Cangge Mining aims to become a leading global mining group, leveraging its substantial mineral resource reserves and advanced technology in potassium and lithium extraction [4] - The company plans to enhance its resource volume and development technology in potassium and lithium to become a key supplier globally [4] Group 3: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company implemented cash dividends totaling CNY 1.569 billion, with cumulative dividends from 2022 to 2024 reaching CNY 7.4 billion [6] - Revenue increased by 3.35% year-on-year, primarily due to a 34.04% rise in potassium chloride revenue, while lithium carbonate revenue decreased by 64.50% due to market fluctuations [6] Group 4: Production and Sales Data - As of the end of Q3 2025, potassium chloride production reached 701,600 tons, achieving 70.16% of the annual target, while sales reached 783,800 tons, achieving 82.51% of the target [7] - Lithium production for the first three quarters was 6,021 tons, with sales of 4,800 tons and an average selling price of CNY 67,300 per ton [9] Group 5: Cost Management and Profitability - The average sales cost of potassium chloride decreased by 19.12% to CNY 978.69 per ton, while the average selling price increased by 26.88% to CNY 2,919.81 per ton, resulting in a gross margin of 63.46% [8] - The company continues to focus on cost control through process optimization and technological innovation [8] Group 6: Project Developments - The second phase of the Jilong Copper Mine project is progressing well, with significant milestones achieved in the construction of the second concentrator [12] - The Mali Mico Salt Lake project is on track, with construction of the photovoltaic power station and land use procedures underway [14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's performance has significantly improved due to the rise in potassium chloride and copper prices, with a notable increase in net profit [2][3] - The resumption of lithium carbonate production and the steady progress of new projects are expected to contribute positively to future earnings [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 2.401 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.35% - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.751 billion yuan, up 47.26% year-on-year, while the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 2.756 billion yuan, an increase of 49.27% year-on-year - For Q3 2025, the company reported a revenue of 723 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.71%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 35.76% [1] Product Sales and Pricing - The potassium chloride sales volume for the first three quarters of 2025 was 783,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.6%, primarily due to the release of approximately 80,000 tons from national reserves - The average selling price of potassium chloride was approximately 2,920 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 26.9% - The company’s lithium carbonate sales volume was 4,800 tons, a decrease of 53.0% year-on-year, with an average selling price of 67,300 yuan per ton, down 24.6% year-on-year [2] Investment Income - The company received investment income of 1.95 billion yuan from its associate, Julong Copper Industry, representing a year-on-year increase of 43.1% - Julong Copper's copper production was 142,500 tons, up 16.8% year-on-year, with sales volume of 142,400 tons, an increase of 18.1% year-on-year, and an average selling price of 83,000 yuan per ton, up 8.0% year-on-year [2] Future Outlook - The company has resumed production at its lithium subsidiary and adjusted its lithium carbonate production and sales plan for 2025, expecting both to reach 8,510 tons - New projects, including the completion of photovoltaic power station construction contracts and the progress of the Laotian potassium salt mine project, are on track [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised, with expected net profits of 3.645 billion, 4.845 billion, and 5.828 billion yuan respectively - The report maintains the "Buy" rating based on the anticipated growth driven by rising potassium chloride and copper prices [3][4]

Group 1 - Peru is the world's second-largest copper producer, with annual production consistently above 2.4 million tons, and holds significant mineral reserves including 12% of the world's copper reserves [1][2] - The country has seen limited new mining projects in the past five years, with only two new mines, Quellaveco and Mina Justa, coming online, reflecting a lack of capital expenditure in copper mining [2] - Peru's economy has shown resilience, recovering from a -10.9% GDP growth in 2020 due to the pandemic, with growth rates of 13.4% in 2021 and 2.7% in 2022, and a projected growth of 3.1% in 2024 [3] Group 2 - The National Infrastructure Plan (PNIC) aims to address a long-term infrastructure gap of approximately $110 billion from 2019 to 2038, with 52 priority projects totaling $28.5 billion expected to be completed by 2025 [3] - Chinese companies control two major mines in Peru, with the Toromocho project being the first large-scale copper mine developed by a Chinese enterprise overseas, expected to produce 300,000 tons of copper concentrate annually after expansion [3] - The Las Bambas project, one of the largest copper mines globally, is a joint venture involving MMG and other partners, with an expected annual production of 280,000 to 320,000 tons of copper concentrate [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - The overall sentiment in the A - share market is mixed. The stock index shows a pattern of first decline and then rebound in the short - term, with the medium - to - long - term upward trend remaining unchanged. The bond market is affected by the stock market and economic data, showing a pattern of wide - range fluctuations [2][4][7]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain a strong trend due to concerns about the US economic outlook and geopolitical conflicts. The price of silver is also expected to remain strong, but the domestic silver price may lag behind the international market [8][9][10]. - The shipping index (European line) is expected to show a moderately strong and volatile pattern in the short - term [12][13]. - In the non - ferrous metal sector, the price of copper is expected to fluctuate, alumina is expected to be weakly volatile, aluminum is expected to be highly volatile, zinc is expected to fluctuate, tin is expected to be highly volatile, nickel is expected to be range - bound, stainless steel is expected to be weakly volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be in a consolidation phase [18][23][26][31][37][40][44]. - In the black metal sector, the steel market needs to observe the recovery of post - holiday demand, iron ore is expected to be weakly volatile, coking coal is recommended for short - term long positions, and coke is recommended for speculative long positions [45][47][52][55]. - In the agricultural product sector, soybean meal prices are expected to be under pressure, and pig prices are expected to face supply pressure in the medium - to - long - term [56][58][60]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Wednesday, the A - share market rebounded with reduced trading volume. The export - related sectors recovered. The four major stock index futures contracts all rose, and the basis spread of the main contracts showed a narrow - range fluctuation. The Sino - US trade friction is in a stage of mutual exploration. The stock index is expected to decline first and then rebound in the short - term, with the medium - to - long - term upward trend remaining unchanged [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The treasury bond futures mostly closed down after wide - range fluctuations. The bond market was affected by the strong performance of the stock market and was less sensitive to economic data. The bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [5][7]. Precious Metals - The US economic activity is affected by tariffs and government shutdowns. The US dollar is weakening, and precious metals continue to be strong. Gold prices reached a new high, and silver prices rose more significantly. In the future, precious metals are expected to maintain a bull market, and it is recommended to hold long positions with stop - loss and take - profit measures [8][9][10]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The spot freight rates of shipping to Europe vary among different shipping companies. The shipping index shows a mixed trend. The supply of global container capacity has increased, and the demand in the eurozone and the US shows different situations. The futures market showed an upward trend on the previous day, and it is expected to be moderately strong and volatile in the short - term [12][13]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The spot trading is average, and the price fluctuates. The supply of copper mines is tight, and the production of refined copper may decline. The demand has strong resilience, but the high price suppresses demand. The inventory shows a pattern of de - stocking in LME and stocking in domestic and COMEX. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is recommended to focus on the support level of 84000 - 85000 [14][16][18]. - **Alumina**: The cost support is weakening, and the price is exploring the bottom. The supply is in an oversupply situation, and the demand is weak. The inventory shows a mixed trend. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2750 - 2950 [18][20][21]. - **Aluminum**: The price has slightly declined from the high level, and the spot premium has rebounded. The supply shows a structural tightness, and the demand is differentiated. The inventory is at a relatively low level. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 20700 - 21300 [21][23]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is maintaining a high - level volatility. The cost support is strong, but the inventory pressure is increasing. The supply and demand are in a state of game. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 20200 - 20800 [24][26]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental factors have limited support for the price, and the price fluctuates. The supply is in a state of loose - to - tight transition, and the demand has no significant improvement. The inventory is increasing. The price is expected to fluctuate, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 21500 - 22500 [27][30][31]. - **Tin**: The strong fundamentals support the high - level volatility of the price. The supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand shows a structural differentiation. The inventory shows a mixed trend. The price is expected to be highly volatile, and it is recommended to pay attention to buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment declines [31][33][34]. - **Nickel**: The price is maintaining a range - bound pattern. The macro - expectations are changing, and the supply of nickel mines has some positive factors. The demand is relatively stable, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be range - bound, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 120000 - 126000 [34][36][37]. - **Stainless Steel**: The spot trading is cautious, and the demand is insufficient. The raw material prices are firm, but the downstream demand has not been effectively realized. The inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and the main contract is recommended to operate between 12400 - 12800 [38][40]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is maintaining a consolidation phase. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be in a consolidation phase, and the main contract is recommended to have a price center between 70000 - 75000 [42][43][44]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot price is weakly declining. The cost and profit situation is changing, and the supply and demand show different trends. The inventory is increasing. It is necessary to observe the recovery of post - holiday demand, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading [45][46]. - **Iron Ore**: The supply - side disturbances are weakening, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short iron ore [47][48][49]. - **Coking Coal**: The post - holiday coal price has rebounded, and the downstream replenishment demand has increased. The supply of Mongolian coal may decrease. The price is expected to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract in the short - term and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [50][52]. - **Coke**: The first - round price increase was implemented before the holiday, and it is difficult to have a second - round increase. The supply is affected by the cost, and the demand is weak. The inventory shows a mixed trend. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract speculatively and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [53][55]. Agricultural Products - **Meal Products**: The US soybean price is under pressure. The domestic soybean supply is sufficient in the fourth quarter, and the price of soybean meal is expected to be weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the uncertainty of soybean arrivals and consider the 1 - 5 positive arbitrage [56][58]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has rebounded due to the entry of secondary fattening. However, the supply pressure will continue to be released in the medium - to - long - term. It is recommended to go short on the futures and hold the LH1 - 5 and LH3 - 7 reverse arbitrage [59][60].

Group 1: Copper Market - The threat of US tariffs has resurfaced, causing a liquidity shock that led to a decline in copper prices, but the long-term upward trend remains intact [2][3] - Recent disturbances in the supply of copper from the world's second-largest copper mine and expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts previously pushed LME copper prices to $11,000 per ton and Shanghai copper prices to over ¥88,000 per ton [2][3] - On November 1, 2025, the US will impose an additional 100% tariff on all goods imported from China, which has heightened market risk aversion and led to significant liquidation of long positions, resulting in a 4.5% drop in both Shanghai and LME copper prices [2][3] Group 2: Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is also experiencing a decline due to the renewed threat of US tariffs and liquidity shocks [3] - The price of alumina has decreased by 0.68% to ¥2,930 per ton, while the main futures contract for alumina fell by 4.62% to ¥2,806 per ton [3] - Domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has increased by 10.15% to 651,000 tons, but the demand season is expected to lead to a destocking cycle, with potential price recovery once liquidity shocks ease [3] Group 3: Lithium Market - Lithium prices are expected to rebound from the bottom as demand enters a destocking cycle during the peak season [4][5] - The price of lithium carbonate remains stable at ¥73,600 per ton, while lithium spodumene has decreased by 2.21% to $839 per ton [4][5] - The production of lithium carbonate has increased by 0.6% to 20,600 tons, and inventory has decreased by 1.5% to 134,800 tons [4][5] Group 4: Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will implement a cobalt export quota system, which is expected to accelerate price increases [6] - The price of cobalt has risen by 4.19% to $19.90 per pound, and domestic cobalt prices have increased by 2.87% to ¥359,000 per ton [6] - The DRC's cobalt export quota for the period from October 16, 2025, to December 31, 2025, is set at 18,100 tons, which is expected to significantly narrow the surplus and potentially lead to a shortage [6]

Core Views - The article emphasizes the importance of maintaining a delicate balance in China-US relations while encouraging companies to pursue overseas expansion despite external disturbances [1][5] - It highlights the potential investment opportunities in the Chinese bond market due to the global shift towards monetary easing [18] Section Summaries Government Policies - The Ministry of Transport announced a special port fee for American vessels starting October 14, 2023, as a countermeasure against US restrictions on Chinese shipbuilding [3] Equity Market - CITIC Securities suggests that resource security, overseas expansion, and technological competition are key structural trends, with a focus on mitigating external disturbances [5] - Hua'an Fund notes that the trend of de-dollarization and unresolved political risks in Europe and the US continue to support gold, recommending a long-term allocation of 5% to 15% in investment portfolios [6] - CITIC Jiantou Securities identifies four main macro trading themes for October, including US government shutdown and RMB internationalization, predicting an upward trend in gold prices and a weakening dollar index [7] Industry Research - Huaxia Fund anticipates that Hong Kong tech stocks will continue to rise, driven by AI catalysts and attractive valuations [12] - Morgan Stanley Fund expects a rebound in financial stock valuations due to improved profitability in the Chinese financial sector [13] - Huatai Securities predicts that copper prices may strengthen due to production cuts at the Grasberg copper mine [14] Bond Market - CICC's fixed income team believes that the global trend of declining interest rates will create favorable conditions for the Chinese bond market [18] - Xinda Securities suggests maintaining a moderate leverage strategy in high-grade credit bonds while focusing on opportunities in the bond market [19] - Huayuan Securities advises against overly aggressive credit allocation strategies in the current low-interest-rate environment [20] Asset Allocation - Guolian Minsheng Investment advises focusing on high-growth sectors like batteries and semiconductors while considering low-position opportunities in resource stocks [22]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the global top 24 copper mining companies produced 7.41 million tons in H1 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 200,000 tons, with a growth rate of 2.8% [1][2] Group 1: Production Insights - The production guidance completion rate for top copper mining companies in H1 2025 was 49%, aligning with expectations [2] - Among the 24 copper mining companies, only 9 experienced a decline in production growth year-on-year, primarily due to lower ore grades, recovery rates, and external disruptions such as water resource limitations [1][2] - Major contributors to the production increase included Rio Tinto (+110,000 tons), China Molybdenum (+100,000 tons), Codelco (+60,000 tons), and Zijin Mining (+50,000 tons) [1][2] Group 2: Future Supply Trends - The production guidance for top copper companies in 2025 has been revised downwards, now expected to grow by only 1.7% compared to earlier guidance of 2.8% [3] - The downward revision in production guidance is attributed to delays in tailings construction and mining accidents [3] - For H2 2025, the total expected production from top mining companies is 5.7 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 1.9% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.2% [3] Group 3: Cost and Financial Performance - The average C1 cash cost for 15 copper companies in H1 2025 was $1.72 per pound, representing a year-on-year decrease of 8.7% [4] - The decline in C1 costs was primarily due to increased copper production and strong by-product prices, with only 4 companies reporting cost increases [4] - Chinese copper companies showed growth in net profit margins and free cash flow, while overseas companies experienced declines, likely due to cost control issues and production decreases [4]