Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart (09992) will experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm expects sales for Pop Mart in Q3 to grow over 180% year-on-year, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected P/E ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report addresses investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the IP collectibles market is substantial and continues to grow, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model poised to capture the increasing "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [2] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that Pop Mart (09992) is expected to experience multiple consumption peaks in the coming months, driven by sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions [1] Group 1: Sales Forecast - The firm anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - Morgan Stanley maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart, corresponding to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 42x, 32x, and 26x for 2025 to 2027 [1] Group 2: Market Sentiment and Demand - Despite recent cautious sentiment in the market towards Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley's outlook remains positive, drawing parallels to Pokémon's strategy in 2021-2022 to increase card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience [1] - The report counters investor concerns regarding the sustainability of Pop Mart, asserting that the market for IP collectibles is substantial and continues to grow, with confidence in Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages to capture the rising "kidult" consumer demand [1] Group 3: Earnings Projections - Morgan Stanley projects adjusted earnings per share for Pop Mart to be HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 for the years 2025 to 2027 [1] - The company is estimated to hold a 5.7% market share in the global IP products market this year, compared to Disney's 43.1% and Sanrio's 8.2% [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that service consumption in China is set to rebound, with service consumption expenditure expected to reach 46% of total consumption in 2024, returning to pre-pandemic levels and approaching the critical 50% mark [2][4]. - The joint policy measures introduced by nine government departments aim to enhance service consumption, showcasing a strong commitment from the government to boost service consumption quality and quantity [2][3]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The new policy measures include 19 specific actions across various sectors such as culture, tourism, sports, education, and health, focusing on enhancing service consumption through platform construction, supply-side improvements, demand-side stimulation, and financial support [2][3]. - Key highlights include the launch of "Service Consumption Seasons" to promote activities in high-demand service areas, and measures to expand supply by relaxing restrictions and attracting external capital [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on specific sectors that will benefit from the policy measures, including: - **Cultural Tourism**: Emphasizing inbound tourism and youth travel, with recommendations to monitor leading travel agencies and scenic spots [4][9]. - **Trendy Toys**: Noting the rapid growth of the trendy toy market, with a focus on companies with strong IP resources and broad channel layouts [9]. - **Sports**: Highlighting the significant potential in event-driven consumption, recommending attention to companies involved in event operations and related services [9]. - **Education**: Encouraging investment in non-academic training and vocational education sectors, particularly those positioned to benefit from supportive policies [9].

Core Viewpoint - The潮玩 (trendy toy) sector is experiencing significant growth globally, becoming a notable force in the consumer market, as evidenced by the market capitalization of leading companies like Bubble Mart surpassing HKD 400 billion, highlighting the lucrative potential of the industry [1][3]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The潮玩 market in China is projected to grow from RMB 22.9 billion in 2020 to RMB 76.3 billion by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 35.11%, while the global潮玩 industry is expected to increase from USD 20.3 billion to USD 41.8 billion during the same period, with a CAGR of nearly 20% [3]. - The shift in consumer motivation from functional satisfaction to emotional value acquisition is driving the demand for潮玩 products, particularly among younger consumers who prefer products that resonate emotionally and allow for personalized expression [3][4]. Group 2: Company Strategy - Quantum Song has fully acquired the潮玩 brand Letsvan and rebranded it as "奇梦岛," marking a strategic pivot towards the潮玩 sector, while also initiating the divestment of non潮玩 businesses to concentrate resources on this high-growth area [5][8]. - The company aims to transition from a "traffic-driven" to a "product-driven" model, focusing on潮玩 to unlock greater growth potential and shareholder value [8]. Group 3: Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of the 2025 fiscal year, Quantum Song reported total revenue of RMB 618 million and a net profit of RMB 108 million, with潮玩 business contributing RMB 65.78 million, accounting for 10.6% of total revenue [2][8]. - The company anticipates潮玩 business revenue to reach between RMB 750 million and RMB 800 million for the entire 2026 fiscal year, indicating a projected quarter-on-quarter growth rate exceeding 50% [10]. Group 4: IP Development and Market Expansion - Quantum Song has developed a diverse IP matrix, operating 11 proprietary IPs and 4 licensed IPs, covering over 40 blind box product lines and 30 plush products, which enhances its market competitiveness [11][12]. - The company is expanding its IP portfolio through increased original investment, IP licensing partnerships, and cross-industry collaborations, such as partnerships with major events and brands to enhance brand visibility and emotional connection with consumers [12][14]. Group 5: Channel Strategy - Quantum Song employs a comprehensive channel strategy that includes online self-operated platforms, offline distribution, and international expansion, significantly increasing market coverage and consumer reach [14][16]. - The online self-operated channel has seen rapid growth, with GMV surpassing RMB 18 million by August 2025, reflecting the effectiveness of the self-operated model [14]. Group 6: Supply Chain Management - The company has optimized its supply chain management to enhance production capacity and responsiveness, achieving a monthly output of over 1 million plush products by August 2025, which is a more than 20-fold increase since the beginning of the year [17][19]. - This supply chain enhancement supports current operations and future business expansion, ensuring timely product availability and reducing potential sales losses due to stockouts [19]. Group 7: Conclusion - Quantum Song's commitment to潮玩 represents a strategic alignment with the emotional value consumption trend, leveraging IP, multi-channel strategies, and supply chain capabilities to drive sustainable growth [20]. - With a robust cash reserve of RMB 1 billion and clear performance guidance, the company is well-positioned for future growth and value re-evaluation as it expands its IP ecosystem and global presence [20].

Group 1 - COMEX gold futures prices rose to $3702.8 per ounce on September 17, marking a nearly 10% increase from $3378 per ounce on August 18 [1] - Popop, a jewelry brand under Bubble Mart, launched its first solid gold series featuring products like gold beads, pendants, gold bars, and ornaments [1] - Within three days of launch, foot traffic in two Popop stores significantly increased, leading to a noticeable rise in sales [1] Group 2 - The new solid gold series is not a limited edition, with prices ranging from 1300 to 1700 RMB per gram, indicating a premium over market prices [5] - Unlike traditional gold brands that use a "gold price + processing fee" pricing strategy, Popop employs a fixed price model for its products [5] - The demand for emotional value from consumers has contributed to the rising popularity of Bubble Mart's IP, reflected in the company's performance [5] Group 3 - Bubble Mart reported a revenue of 13.88 billion RMB for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 204.4% [5] - The adjusted net profit for the same period was 4.71 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year growth of 362.8% [5] - The company's revenue surpassed 10 billion RMB in the first half of the year, with net profit exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates a contrary view to the market's cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart, suggesting that increased supply can help address speculation issues and expand the customer base, thereby driving sustained demand growth [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Supply - Despite recent market caution regarding Pop Mart, Morgan Stanley believes that increasing production capacity will resolve speculation problems and broaden the customer base [1] - The report draws parallels with the Pokémon experience, asserting that increased capacity can lead to sustained demand growth [1] Group 2: Catalysts for Growth - Upcoming consumer peak seasons (National Day, Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) are expected to act as catalysts for sales growth [1] - With sufficient inventory of popular products, new product launches, and store expansions, Morgan Stanley anticipates that Pop Mart's sales momentum will continue and reverse the market's pessimistic sentiment [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts that Pop Mart's sales in the third quarter will increase by over 180% year-on-year [1] - The firm maintains a target price of 382 HKD for Pop Mart and an "Overweight" rating, listing it as a top pick in the industry [1] - Projections for adjusted earnings per share from 2025 to 2027 have been provided, estimating Pop Mart's share in the global IP product market at 5.7% [1]

Core Insights - The rise of "Art Toys" or "Designer Toys" has transformed from a niche market to a global trend, driven by unique designs and cultural narratives [1][2][8] - The global market for designer toys is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 23% from 2015 to 2024, increasing from 8.7 billion to 44.8 billion yuan [3] - The consumer demographic for designer toys is predominantly under 40, with China's Generation Z contributing 40% of the market [8][10] Industry Growth - The designer toy market has expanded rapidly since 2016, with North America, Europe, and China emerging as the top three markets [7][8] - The industry has seen a surge in original IPs and new entrants, making it a hot sector for both consumer and capital markets [2][8] Globalization and Market Dynamics - The designer toy industry has a natural global characteristic, with cross-border IP collaborations and international supply chain layouts [2][11] - Successful brands like Pop Mart have expanded internationally, with overseas revenue reaching 1.35 billion yuan in the previous year, a 260% increase [13][14] Competitive Landscape - Chinese companies have quickly risen in the designer toy sector, leveraging manufacturing capabilities and market size to compete globally [15][16] - Brands like Pop Mart and 52TOYS have effectively utilized collaborations with well-known IPs to reduce market education costs and enhance product visibility [16][20] Marketing and Consumer Engagement - The marketing strategies of Chinese companies, such as leveraging social media and influencer partnerships, have proven effective in both domestic and international markets [21][22] - The ability to create and manage unique IPs is crucial for differentiation in the designer toy market, with companies like Pop Mart developing over 30 proprietary IPs [23]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's research report indicates that the market sentiment towards Pop Mart has become cautious, viewing the company's increased supply as a negative factor. However, the firm believes that this approach can lead to a larger customer base and sustained demand, similar to the Pokémon card market's experience from 2021 to 2022 [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Strategy - The market's recent cautious sentiment towards Pop Mart is attributed to the perception of increased supply as a negative factor [1] - Morgan Stanley draws parallels with Pokémon's strategy of increasing card production to address speculation and enhance customer experience, resulting in a larger customer base despite a drop in secondary market prices [1] Group 2: Market Potential and Growth - The IP product market is considered substantial and continuously growing, with Pop Mart's differentiated business model and competitive advantages positioned to capture the increasing kidult consumer demand [1] - Upcoming consumption peaks, including China's National Day and Western holidays such as Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas, are expected to act as catalysts for sales growth [1] Group 3: Sales Forecast and Valuation - Morgan Stanley anticipates that Pop Mart's sales will grow over 180% year-on-year in Q3, compared to 235% in the previous quarter [1] - The firm maintains a target price of HKD 382 for Pop Mart and an "Overweight" rating, listing it as an industry favorite [1] - Earnings per share forecasts for Pop Mart from 2025 to 2027 are projected at HKD 2.58, 9.90, 11.87, and 14.67 respectively, with an estimated global market share of 5.7% in the IP products sector [1]

Core Insights - The price of LABUBU in the second-hand market has significantly decreased since September, reversing the previous trend of high demand and inflated prices [1][2][3] - The recent launch of the fourth generation mini LABUBU series by Pop Mart has led to a rapid sell-out on multiple platforms, but subsequent price drops have been observed [1][3] - The overall sentiment among consumers and resellers indicates a bearish outlook on LABUBU prices, with a majority expecting further declines [2][4] Price Trends - On September 17, the average transaction price for the mini LABUBU A-M model was 145 yuan, while a complete set of 14 N-Z models averaged 1402 yuan [1] - The LABUBU 3.0 series "Ben Wo" reached a peak price of 4523 yuan on June 13, but has since fallen to an average of 855 yuan [2] - The price of a complete set of 6 LABUBU 3.0 blind boxes dropped from 1500-2800 yuan to 650-800 yuan shortly after the 618 sales event [6] Market Sentiment - 68% of users on second-hand platforms believe LABUBU prices will continue to decline, while only 32% expect an increase [2] - Resellers report that profit margins have shrunk significantly, with many struggling to sell at prices that were previously profitable [4][5] - The influx of resellers and increased supply have contributed to the price drop, with many resellers indicating that they are unable to make a profit [4][5] Sales and Supply Dynamics - Pop Mart's "surprise" restock on June 18 led to a substantial increase in sales, with over 400,000 units expected to be restocked across various channels [3] - The high volume of resellers and the rapid replenishment of stock have created a saturated market, leading to decreased prices and profitability for resellers [4][5] - Despite the overall decline in prices, rare versions of LABUBU remain difficult to acquire, indicating a continued demand for limited editions [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - Pop Mart (09992) has seen a stock increase of over 3%, currently trading at 263.4 HKD with a transaction volume of 2.791 billion HKD, indicating positive market sentiment towards the company [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Huatai Securities suggests that recent fluctuations in the secondary market prices of Pop Mart's products may be due to the company's proactive supply increase, which does not hinder its long-term development logic [1] - The company is recognized as a leading player in China's trendy toy industry, possessing full industry chain operational capabilities for IP toys [1] - Pop Mart continues to achieve high-quality growth through outstanding IP creation, operational capabilities, and diverse consumer touchpoints [1] Group 2: Growth Potential - The expansion of Pop Mart's overseas business and the increasing influence of its products internationally are expected to unlock a second growth driver for the company [1] - HSBC Global Research reports that Labubu has become a global cultural symbol, comparable to Kaws and Bearbrick, with a development cycle exceeding 10 years [1] - Labubu is set to begin active collaborations with global brands in 2024, suggesting that it is premature to declare its peak [1] Group 3: Investment Ratings - HSBC maintains a "Buy" rating for Pop Mart with a target price of 379 HKD, which corresponds to projected price-to-earnings ratios of 41.5 times and 30.8 times for the next two years [1]