Summary of the Conference Call on Tin Metal Industry Industry Overview - The tin metal industry is experiencing a short-term increase in export orders due to demand from end-use sectors like batteries and photovoltaic (PV) industries, with an expected increase of approximately 2,000 tons in the first quarter [1][3] - The current spot market for tin is weak, with reduced purchasing willingness from downstream buyers, as evidenced by the deep water quotation for Yunzi brand at around 700 RMB per ton and overseas inventory at approximately 6,000 tons, indicating low trading activity [1][6][7] Key Points on Supply and Demand - In the medium to long term, the supply growth rate in the tin market is low, with an average annual increase of about 1%. Emerging technologies such as AI are expected to create new demand growth points, making the supply-demand fundamentals similar to those of the copper market [1][4] - China accounts for about 25% of global tin production and reserves, primarily concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Inner Mongolia. The Alpha Mining area in Africa is expected to become a significant growth region, although geopolitical risks remain a key concern [1][4] Notable Companies and Investment Opportunities - Key companies to watch in the tin sector include: - Xiyu Co., with a self-owned production capacity of 323,000 tons and plans to add 6,000 tons [1][5] - Zinc smelting companies, currently with a capacity of 9,000 tons and plans to add nearly 20,000 tons by 2028 [1][5] - Huaxi Nonferrous, which is expected to benefit from price increases [1][5] Supply Chain Dynamics - Myanmar's tin production is currently hindered by issues related to explosive approvals, but is expected to recover to a monthly production level of 1,500 tons by late January [1][8] - Indonesia's RKB mine is projected to produce 60,000 tons this year, which is neutral for the market [1][8] - The Alpha Mining area in Africa is expected to recover to an annual production level of 20,000 tons by 2027, while South America, particularly Peru, is maintaining stable production with a slight overall increase expected [1][9][10] Price Trends and Market Sentiment - The main reasons for the expected rise in tin prices in 2026 include supply disruptions and the impact of export tax rebate policies, particularly in the photovoltaic and battery sectors [2][21] - The first quarter is typically a low-demand season, but the second quarter may see a demand increase if Christmas orders recover and export tariffs ease. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 280,000 to 350,000 RMB, with significant volatility in the first quarter [2][21][22] Inventory and Downstream Activity - Current LME inventory is close to 6,000 tons, with domestic warehouse inventory exceeding 9,000 tons, indicating a historical high [1][16] - Downstream activity has been low due to high prices, with only a slight recovery in orders noted in December. The upcoming New Year and Spring Festival may lead to some replenishment, but overall downstream conditions remain precarious [1][16] Future Outlook - The global photovoltaic production is expected to reach around 600 GW by 2027, with China's output projected between 200-250 GW. This indicates a slight decline compared to previous years, although potential policy changes could provide new growth opportunities [1][17] - The tin plating industry is expected to grow by 3.6% in 2026, but export levels may face challenges in 2027 due to potential declines in overseas demand [1][18] Conclusion - The tin market is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, emerging demand from new technologies, and geopolitical risks. Key players in the industry are positioned to benefit from price increases, but caution is advised due to potential volatility and market dynamics.

格隆汇1月16日｜A股市场有色金属股继续走强，其中，入选了格隆汇2026年"下注中国"十大核心资产 名单的洛阳钼业(603993.SH)盘中涨超4%报25.09元，再创历史新高。该股在2025年累涨210%后，今年 在截至今日的10个交易日内再度累涨超25%。 洛阳钼业昨晚发布公告，预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为200亿元到208亿元，同比增 加47.80%到53.71%。预计2025年度实现归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为204亿元到 212亿元，同比增加55.50%到61.60%。公司2025年业绩同比大幅上升的原因系公司主要产品量价齐升、 运营成本有效管控。 ...

A股上市公司2025年年报业绩预告持续披露，成为市场洞察企业经营韧性、预判行业景气度的重要窗 口。根据同花顺数据显示，截至1月15日，A股共有243家上市公司对外披露2025年业绩预告，120家预 喜。成都公司当中，盛新锂能和秦川物联也相继发布业绩预告，拉开了成都上市公司业绩披露大幕。 上述披露2025年业绩预告的上市公司中，有142家上市公司预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利 润同比增幅超过100%。其中，回盛生物、中泰股份、佰维存储、华正新材等公司的增幅居前。 以增幅居前的中科蓝讯为例，公司预计2025年全年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为14亿元至14.3亿 元，同比增长366.51%至376.51%；预计实现扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为2.2亿元至2.4亿元，同比下 降9.89%至1.7%，预计实现营业收入为18.3亿元至18.5亿元。 从行业角度看，半导体、生物医药、化工、机械、有色金属等行业上市公司业绩回暖明显。受金价持续 高涨影响，赤峰黄金、紫金矿业等公司业绩大幅增长。 以赤峰黄金为例，公司预计2025年全年实现归属于上市公司股东的净利润为30亿元至32亿元，同比增长 70%至81%，扣 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market for non-ferrous metals continues to strengthen, with zinc companies reaching a limit-up, and several other companies like China Uranium, Hunan Silver, and Jiangxi Copper seeing significant gains [1] - Gold, silver, copper, and tin have all reached historical highs simultaneously, indicating strong investor interest and concerns over geopolitical tensions in regions like Venezuela and Iran [1] - Analysts suggest that investors are reassessing asset allocations in light of reshaped geopolitical and trade dynamics, with further upside potential for gold and silver prices [1] Group 2 - Specific stock performance includes: - Zinc Industry Co. (涨幅 8.28%, 总市值 84.50 billion, 年初至今涨幅 27.87%) - China Uranium (涨幅 7.32%, 总市值 155.6 billion, 年初至今涨幅 23.49%) - Hunan Silver (涨幅 7.02%, 总市值 31.8 billion, 年初至今涨幅 63.01%) - Jiangxi Copper (涨幅 6.50%, 总市值 228.6 billion, 年初至今涨幅 20.23%) - Xiamen Tungsten (涨幅 5.95%, 总市值 87.3 billion, 年初至今涨幅 33.97%) [2] - Other notable performers include Yunlu Co. (涨幅 4.70%, 总市值 13 billion, 年初至今涨幅 11.82%) and Western Mining (涨幅 4.49%, 总市值 76.5 billion, 年初至今涨幅 16.21%) [2]

Core Viewpoint - The central bank has introduced a significant policy package aimed at supporting high-quality economic development, which includes various measures to enhance liquidity and support specific sectors [1][6]. Monetary Policy - The central bank has lowered the re-lending and rediscount rates by 0.25 percentage points [1][6]. - The quota for re-lending to support agriculture and small enterprises has been increased by 500 billion yuan, with a total quota of 1 trillion yuan specifically for private enterprises [1][6]. - The re-lending quota for technological innovation and technical transformation has been increased by 400 billion yuan, with an expanded support scope [1][6]. - The minimum down payment ratio for commercial property loans has been reduced to 30% [1][6]. - The central bank indicated that there is still room for further rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions this year [1][6]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.33% at 4112.60 points, while the ChiNext Index rose 0.56% [1][6]. - Sector performance varied, with electronics, basic chemicals, and non-ferrous metals leading gains, while defense, media, and computer sectors experienced declines [1][6]. - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets decreased to 2.9 trillion yuan [1][6]. - In the U.S., major stock indices saw slight increases, with the Dow Jones up 0.6% at 49,442.44 points [1][6]. Strategy - The central bank's policy measures are expected to enhance market liquidity and strengthen the growth drivers for the technology sector within the equity market [3][8]. - The overall monetary policy remains accommodative, with the continuous release of liquidity expected to positively impact the equity market, providing upward momentum for stock indices [3][8]. - It is recommended to buy on dips for IC and IM contracts [3][8].

Core Viewpoint - The nickel market is experiencing a downturn due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, weak demand from downstream industries, and a shift in supply expectations, leading to a potential short-term weak trading pattern for nickel prices [2][5]. Supply Side - The previous expectations of tightening Indonesian nickel ore quotas have weakened, reducing concerns about supply constraints [3]. - Both domestic and international visible inventories continue to accumulate, indicating that spot supply is not tight, which alleviates fears of resource shortages [3]. Demand Side - Overall demand for nickel from downstream sectors is weak, with stainless steel production hampered by high social inventories and a slow recovery in the real estate sector, leading steel mills to be cautious in raw material procurement [4]. - In the new energy sector, the production of ternary batteries has also seen a month-on-month decline, with first-quarter growth expectations falling [4]. - Both major demand drivers lack strong recovery momentum, making it difficult to support high prices [4]. Industry Chain Status - The nickel industry chain is facing a mismatch in supply and demand rhythms, with upstream nickel ore supply expectations shifting from tight to loose, while the midstream smelting capacity remains excessive [4]. - The recovery pace of demand in downstream stainless steel and new energy vehicles is relatively slow, leading to a concentration of industry chain profits towards the upstream resource end, while the mid and downstream processing and manufacturing sectors have weaker bargaining power [4]. Spot Trading and Price Forecast - The activity level in the spot market has decreased, with buyers showing a strong wait-and-see attitude, and some traders opting to accelerate sales to avoid price volatility risks [5]. - In summary, due to the dual impact of weakened supply contraction expectations and weak downstream demand, nickel prices are likely to maintain a short-term weak trading pattern [5].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in the non-ferrous metal sector, with multiple companies reaching historical highs, driven by rising prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Zinc Industry Co. saw a peak increase of 8.28%, with a total market value of 8.45 billion [2] - China Uranium Industry rose by 7.32%, with a market capitalization of 155.6 billion [2] - Hunan Silver increased by 7.02%, with a market value of 31.8 billion [2] - Jiangxi Copper surged by 6.50%, reaching a market cap of 228.6 billion [2] - Xiamen Tungsten climbed by 5.95%, with a total market value of 87.3 billion [2] - Yunlu Co. and Western Mining both increased by over 4%, with market values of 13 billion and 76.5 billion respectively [2] Group 2: Metal Prices and Investor Sentiment - Gold, silver, copper, and tin have all reached historical highs, indicating strong investor interest [1] - Analysts suggest that concerns over geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela and Iran, are prompting investors to reassess asset allocations [1] - There is potential for further increases in gold and silver prices as the market reacts to changing geopolitical and trade dynamics [1]

Group 1 - Recent geopolitical tensions have led to simultaneous all-time highs in the prices of gold, silver, copper, and tin, a phenomenon not seen in the 20-year career of BMO analyst Helen Amos [1] - Concerns over regional conflicts, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, are driving investor sentiment and supporting price increases in key strategic non-ferrous metals such as copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of significant weakness, with December's non-farm payrolls adding only 50,000 jobs, below expectations, and a downward revision of 76,000 jobs in the previous two months, indicating a potential for two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [1] Group 2 - The Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index (399395) has risen by 1.18%, with notable increases in individual stocks such as Chihong Zn & Ge (up 6.09%), Jiangxi Copper (up 5.56%), and Jinchuan Group (up 5.15%) [1] - The Penghua Non-Ferrous ETF closely tracks the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index, which includes 50 prominent securities in the non-ferrous metals sector, reflecting the overall performance of listed companies in this industry [2] - As of December 31, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the Zhongzheng Non-Ferrous Metals Industry Index account for 51.65% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and China Northern Rare Earth Group [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing a strong rally, driven by multiple factors including global capital expenditure cycles, manufacturing recovery, enhanced monetary attributes, and improved domestic macro expectations [1] - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) has seen significant inflows, with a real-time net subscription of 57 million units and a total net inflow of 473 million yuan over the past 10 days [1] - Analysts suggest that the current non-ferrous metal supercycle is influenced by the "AI leap" and "century change," with historical parallels to significant macro narratives [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) and its linked fund (017140) cover a wide range of metals including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, providing risk diversification compared to investing in single metal sectors [2] - As of January 15, the latest scale of the non-ferrous ETF Huabao (159876) reached 1.453 billion yuan, marking a historical high and ranking first among three ETFs tracking the non-ferrous metal index in the market [2]

Core Insights - The national production material market prices increased by 1.0% from January 5 to January 11 compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Metal Prices - Non-ferrous metal prices continued to rise, with aluminum, copper, and zinc increasing by 5.2%, 3.3%, and 2.8% respectively [2] Group 2: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with synthetic rubber and natural rubber rising by 1.7% and 1.4% respectively [3] Group 3: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices experienced a slight increase, with urea and compound fertilizer rising by 0.6% and 0.2% respectively - Steel prices showed a slight recovery, with hot-rolled strip steel, welded steel pipes, and channel steel priced at 3521 yuan, 3712 yuan, and 3560 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.7%, 0.5%, and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 4: Coal Prices - Coal prices exhibited slight fluctuations, with thermal coal priced at 777 yuan per ton, increasing by 0.4%, while anthracite and coking coal decreased by 0.9% and 0.4% respectively [4] Group 5: Chemical Raw Material Prices - Basic chemical raw material prices showed minor fluctuations, with methanol and polypropylene increasing by 1.1%, while sulfuric acid and soda ash decreased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively [4] Group 6: Oil Prices - Wholesale prices of finished oil experienced a slight decline, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.3%, and 0.2% respectively [5]