Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the performance of the Penghua Nonferrous ETF (159880), which opened with a gain of 2.06% at 2.233 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, and other companies such as Luoyang Molybdenum (2.14%), Northern Rare Earth (2.97%), and Huayou Cobalt (1.49%) [1] - The ETF's performance benchmark is the National Index of Nonferrous Metals Industry, managed by Penghua Fund Management Co., Ltd., with a return of 118.94% since its inception on March 8, 2021, and a 5.03% return over the past month [1]

2026 年 02 月 09 日 信任命 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不 金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 若研究报 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万 指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点，2) 分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 17.38%，铝下跌 6.24%，能源金属下跌 3.59%，小金属下跌 3.20%，铜下跌 9. ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is at a critical juncture, transitioning its operational logic with a focus on profit verification and systemic optimization by 2026, while investors should be cautious of "consensus traps" and prioritize long-term value over short-term trends [2][4][9]. Group 1: Market Consensus and Trends - Three core consensus in the current A-share market include the recovery of cyclical sectors, rapid development of new productive forces, and the increasing value of low-valuation high-dividend assets [4]. - Compared to mid-2025, the market's driving logic has shifted from policy expectations to performance verification, with a stronger emphasis on profitability and a more balanced approach to growth and valuation [4][5]. - The low-valuation high-dividend assets are gaining traction due to dual confirmations from policy and valuation support, leading to a noticeable acceleration in recovery [4][5]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities and Risks - The consensus around cyclical and new productive forces is supported by fundamentals, with sectors like non-ferrous metals and chemicals benefiting from supply-demand restructuring and policy support [5]. - Investors should approach these consensus with caution, focusing on the sustainability of profits and the timing of policy implementation, while being wary of short-term data improvements being misinterpreted as long-term trends [5][6]. - Identifying quality opportunities in low-valuation high-dividend assets and technology breakthroughs in new productive forces can help mitigate the risks associated with consensus traps [8]. Group 3: Structural Changes and Future Outlook - By 2026, the A-share market is expected to exhibit a more sustainable and systematic growth pattern, supported by proactive fiscal and monetary policies, as well as structural changes in the market [9][10]. - The market is transitioning from a liquidity-driven environment to one driven by profit improvement and valuation recovery, with a dual focus on high dividends and technology growth [10][11]. - The core drivers of stable development in 2026 will include technological self-reliance, industrial upgrades, and consumption expansion, supported by effective policy implementation [11][12]. Group 4: Technology Investment Logic - The investment logic in the technology sector has shifted from focusing on technical feasibility to validating commercial viability and profitability [14]. - Key areas such as AI, semiconductors, and high-end manufacturing are expected to gain market attention as they demonstrate real commercial applications and revenue generation [14][15]. - Investors should assess companies based on their technological barriers, commercialization capabilities, and financial health to identify those with genuine competitive advantages [15][16].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF (159876), which opened with a gain of 2.07% at 1.135 yuan on February 9 [1] - Major holdings of the Huabao Nonferrous ETF include Zijin Mining, which rose by 3.50%, Luoyang Molybdenum by 2.14%, Northern Rare Earth by 2.97%, and others, indicating a positive trend in the nonferrous metals sector [1] - The Huabao Nonferrous ETF has a performance benchmark of the CSI Nonferrous Metals Index return, managed by Huabao Fund Management Co., with a return of 122.52% since its establishment on March 12, 2021, and a recent one-month return of 4.76% [1]

Group 1 - The core consensus in the A-share market includes the recovery of cyclical sectors, rapid development of new productive forces, and the increased value of low-valuation high-dividend asset allocation [1] - Cyclical sectors such as non-ferrous metals and chemicals, as well as midstream manufacturing sectors like machinery and building materials, benefit from supply-demand restructuring and policy support, becoming the main line for capital allocation [1] - Hard technology fields like semiconductors, high-end manufacturing, and AI computing power are recognized as long-term growth engines for new productive forces, continuously attracting market interest [1] Group 2 - Low-valuation high-dividend assets are gaining attention due to dual support from policies and capital, with long-term funds accelerating entry into the market since early 2026, reinforcing their valuation support [1] - Investors are advised to rationally assess the sustainability of profits in cyclical sectors, the warming demand trend, the timeliness of policy implementation, and industry prosperity turning points to avoid simplistic extrapolation of short-term data into long-term trends [2] - Within the new productive forces sector, significant differentiation exists, necessitating careful identification of companies' technological breakthroughs and commercialization capabilities, while being cautious of the disconnect between speculative concepts and performance realization [2]

| 证券代码 | 股票简称 | 权重 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | 总市值(亿元) | | 所属行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | sz000725 | 京东方A | 8.99% | 4.35 | -0.46% | | 1611.43 | 电子 | | sz000858 | 五粮液 | 8.58% | 107.36 | 0.34% | | 4167.29 | 食品饮料 | | sz000338 | 潍柴动力 | 7.98% | 25.74 | 8.24% | ﮯ | 2242.88 | 汽车 | | sz002415 | 海康威视 | 7.28% | 32.54 | -0.31% | A | 2982.25 | 计算机 | | sz000425 | 徐工机械 | 5.93% | 11.86 | 3.58% | | 1393.90 | 机械设备 | | sz000568 | 泸州老窖 | 5.67% | 121.29 | -1.25% | | 1785.32 | 食品饮料 | | sz000807 | 云铝股份 | 4.62% | 31 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the exceptional performance of value fund manager Lan Xiaokang, who has achieved significant returns and increased management scale, positioning him among the top fund managers in the market [4][6]. Fund Performance - As of the end of Q4 2025, Lan Xiaokang's management scale reached 30.2 billion yuan, marking him as a leading figure in the value investment style [4]. - The fund "Zhongou Hongli Youxiang Flexible Allocation Mixed A" (004814.OF) managed by Lan achieved a net value growth rate of 46.7% in 2025, outperforming its benchmark by approximately 32 percentage points [4]. - In Q4 2025, the fund recorded a net value growth of 6.68%, following an 18.3% return in Q3, leading to a total return of 200.1% since Lan took over the fund [6][8]. Investment Strategy - Lan Xiaokang's investment style is characterized as "cyclical value," demonstrating stability with a maximum drawdown of about 19.5% since 2020, which is significantly lower than the average for equity funds [8]. - In 2025, the fund's allocation included 26.6% in both non-ferrous metals and non-bank financials, with additional holdings in banks (10.3%) and machinery (7%) [10][11]. Portfolio Adjustments - In Q4 2025, Lan Xiaokang made a notable shift in his portfolio, reducing exposure to non-ferrous metals and increasing investments in the financial sector, particularly insurance stocks [10][14]. - The top three holdings at the end of Q4 were all insurance companies: China Ping An, China Life, and New China Life, indicating a strategic pivot towards high-dividend, low-valuation stocks [12][14]. Market Outlook - Lan Xiaokang expressed a cautious outlook for 2026, emphasizing the importance of monitoring domestic economic recovery and potential risks from discrepancies in economic performance and market pricing in developed countries [21]. - The shift from resource stocks to financial dividends reflects a belief that the valuation of resource stocks may have peaked, while insurance stocks offer better value due to improving asset conditions [21].

沪深股通今日合计成交2730.05亿，其中贵州茅台和中际旭创分居沪股通和深股通个股成交额首位。板块主力资金方面，电子板块主力资金净流入居首。 ETF成交方面，多只有色金属相关ETF份额大幅减少，其中有色金属ETF（512400）上周份额大减25.11亿份。龙虎榜方面，AI应用概念股捷成股份今日20cm 涨停，获三家一线游资（国泰海通证券三亚迎宾路、国泰海通证券上海江苏路、国盛证券宁波桑田路）合计买入3.41亿。 一、沪深股通前十大成交 今日沪股通总成交金额为1257.68亿，深股通总成交金额为1472.37亿。 | | 沪股運（ | 2月9日 | ) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 排名 | 股票代码 | 股票名称 | | 成交金额(亿元) | | 1 | 600519 | 贵州茅台 | | 21.12 | | 2 | 603986 | 兆易创新 | | 18.64 | | 3 | 601899 | 高等业,不 | | 17.62 | | ব | 688256 | 寒武纪 | | 16.76 | | 5 | 601318 | 中国平安 | | 14.75 | | 6 ...

| 金屋 | 阵存 | 注册仓单 | 变动 | 注销仓单 变动 | 注销品比 | 1046 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 테크 | 184,300 | 164,825 ↑ | +0.52% | 19.475 ↑ +0.91% | 10.57% | 10.53% | | 铝 | 488,975 | 440,650 | - 0.00% | 48,325 1 -3.97% | 9.88% | 10.25% | | 掛 | 106.925 | | 94,450 ↑ +0.35% | 12,475 -7,42% | 11.67% | 12.52% | | 篇 | 285,072 | | 275,760 ↑ +0.04% | 9,312 ↓ -3.30% | 3.27% | 3.38% | | 铝 | 232,750 | 217,025 | - 0.00% | 15,725 J -0.63% | 6.76% | 6.80% | | 易 | 7.030 | | 6,765 1 -0.07% | 265 -15.87% | 3.77% | 4.45% | | ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant growth of initiation funds in the "tech bull" market, where many funds have not only increased their net value but also overcome size challenges, transforming from several million to tens of billions in scale due to investments in sectors like artificial intelligence [1][2] - Several initiation funds, such as the China Europe Information Technology fund, have seen remarkable growth, with the fund's size increasing from 24.4 million to 7.433 billion within nine months, demonstrating the potential for rapid expansion in favorable market conditions [2][3] - The "slow bull" market has alleviated the pressure on fund launches, allowing for larger initial fundraising amounts, such as the Penghua Qihang Quantitative Stock Selection fund, which raised 2.98 billion, compared to previous smaller fund sizes [3][4] Group 2 - Despite the favorable market conditions, some initiation funds have struggled to meet the 200 million threshold, leading to several funds announcing their exit after three years due to insufficient scale [6][7] - The operational costs associated with smaller funds can hinder their growth, making them reliant on institutional investments, which may affect their investment strategies [6] - Some funds have managed to "rescue" themselves by temporarily surpassing the 200 million threshold through increased subscriptions, indicating a dynamic market environment where fund performance can fluctuate significantly [7]