Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: March 17, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin, Yu Feifei [3][4] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - Affected by the Middle East conflict pushing up oil prices, market concerns about inflation rebound have increased. Coupled with geopolitical risk - aversion demand, the US dollar index has strengthened continuously. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in this week's meeting is as high as 99.2%, and the expectation of interest - rate cuts this year has been significantly revised down, further consolidating the strong position of the US dollar. Base metals have all declined under pressure. The zinc price is expected to remain volatile and weak in the short term [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For different contracts of Shanghai zinc futures, the 2603 contract opened at 24,140 yuan/ton, closed at 24,230 yuan/ton, with a decline of 95 yuan and a decline rate of 0.39%, and the position decreased by 85; the 2604 contract opened at 24,245 yuan/ton, closed at 24,300 yuan/ton, with a decline of 120 yuan and a decline rate of 0.49%, and the position decreased by 1,494; the 2605 contract opened at 24,230 yuan/ton, closed at 24,340 yuan/ton, with a decline of 130 yuan and a decline rate of 0.53%, and the position increased by 623 [7]. - **Market Situation**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc fell below the 24,000 - yuan mark, closing at 23,905 yuan/ton, a decline of 315 yuan or 1.30%. On the 16th, LME inventory decreased by 400 tons to 90,800 tons, 0 - 3C was 42.63, and the Shanghai - London ratio dropped to 7.27. The average domestic TC price of SMM Zn50 this week remained flat at 1,550 yuan/metal ton. Although the offers of imported ore increased, due to overseas supply disruptions, the imported zinc concentrate index continued to decline to 11.25 US dollars/ton. With the resumption of refineries and the increase in natural days, the refined zinc output in March will increase month - on - month. On Monday, the SMM zinc ingot inventory continued to accumulate, increasing by 0.7 tons to 27.58 tons compared with last Friday. As the price dropped, downstream buyers increased their spot purchases at low prices. The social inventory may decline slightly this week, but the inflection point of inventory decline has not been confirmed [7]. 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transactions on March 16, 2026**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 23,755 - 24,040 yuan/ton, and there was no transaction for Shuangyan. The mainstream transaction price of 1 zinc was between 23,685 - 23,970 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market offered a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the SMM average price and no offer to the futures price [8]. - **Ningbo Market**: The mainstream price of 0 zinc was around 23,775 - 24,030 yuan/ton. Regular brands in Ningbo offered a discount of 90 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The mainstream in Ningbo was to quote against the 2604 contract [8]. - **Tianjin Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc ingots was between 23,760 - 24,080 yuan/ton, and Zijin was traded between 23,800 - 24,090 yuan/ton. The 1 zinc ingots were traded around 23,720 - 24,010 yuan/ton. Zijin offered a discount of 30 - 40 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract, and Huxin was quoted at 24,600 yuan/ton [8]. - **Guangdong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was between 23,775 - 24,060 yuan/ton. Mainstream brands offered a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the 2604 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. The price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong narrowed. At first, holders offered a discount of 70 - 60 yuan/ton for brands such as Qilin and Lanxin [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Graphs**: The report includes graphs such as the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE month - to - month spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory [10][12]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View - The fundamentals of crude oil are neutral. The US has no objection to some Iranian, Indian, and Chinese vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The daily oil exports from the Middle East Gulf region have declined by at least 60% compared to February. The basis is neutral with the spot price at par with the futures price. The inventory situation is mixed, with some data showing a decrease and others an increase. The主力持仓 is bullish, with both WTI and Brent crude oil's main positions increasing long positions. The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, with the SC2605 contract recommended to operate in the range of 740 - 760, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - **Crude Oil 2605**: - **Technical Aspect**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the price is above the average, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Fundamentals**: The US has no objection to some vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the Fed's interest rate decision is expected to be stable. Middle East oil exports are down significantly. Overall, it is a neutral situation [3]. - **Basis**: On March 16, the basis was 38.79 yuan/barrel, with the spot price at par with the futures price, a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory decreased by 167.8 barrels in the week ending March 6, while EIA inventory increased by 382.4 barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 11.7 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 351.1 barrels as of March 16, showing a bearish signal [3]. - **主力持仓**: As of March 10, both WTI and Brent crude oil's main positions increased long positions, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Expectation**: The price of crude oil is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term. The SC2605 contract should operate in the range of 740 - 760, and long - term investors should wait for opportunities to short at high prices [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **US Treasury Secretary's Statement**: US Treasury Secretary Besent said that the "natural opening" of the Strait of Hormuz is temporarily alleviating extreme pressure. The US allows Iranian tankers to pass to ensure global supply, and any measures to deal with oil prices depend on the duration of the war [5]. - **US - Iran Communication**: There are reports of communication between a US envoy and the Iranian foreign minister, but Iran has denied it. Trump also mentioned that Iran wants to reach an agreement, but the situation is unclear [5]. - **Saudi Arabia's Oil Export**: With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed, Saudi Arabia is increasing oil exports through alternative routes. At least 27 tankers were waiting at the Yanbu port on Monday, and the goal is to export up to 5 million barrels per day through this alternative channel [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Bullish Factors**: None mentioned in the provided content. - **Likely Bearish Factors**: Trump intends to end the war quickly [6]. - **Market Driver**: In the short term, continue to focus on geopolitical situation changes. In the long - term, wait for the situation to ease before entering the market for reverse trading [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil have changed. Brent crude oil decreased by 2.93 to 100.21, a decrease of 2.84%. WTI crude oil decreased by 5.21 to 93.50, a decrease of 5.28%. SC crude oil increased by 8.70 to 761.8, an increase of 1.16%. Oman crude oil increased by 9.61 to 144.36, an increase of 7.13% [7]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of various types of crude oil in the spot market have also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd increased by 0.48 to 104.16, an increase of 0.46%. WTI decreased by 5.21 to 93.50, a decrease of 5.28% [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API inventory decreased by 167.8 barrels in the week ending March 6, while the EIA inventory increased by 382.4 barrels in the same period [3]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of March 10, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 55,865 to 228,015 [15]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of March 10, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 65,438 to 351,032 [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - For silver (AG): The closing price of the ag2606 contract decreased by 6.34% compared to the previous day, along with an increase in trading volume and open interest. The implied volatility of AG options fluctuates above the mean, and the open interest PCR is at a 10.61% level in the past year. The pressure level is 37,600, and the support level is 15,000 [3][6]. - For gold (AU): The closing price of the au2604 contract dropped by 2.03% from the previous day, with an increase in trading volume and a decrease in open interest. The implied volatility of AU options fluctuates above the mean, and the open interest PCR is at a 41.63% level in the past year. The pressure level is 1200, and the support level is 1000 [16][19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Silver (AG) - **Futures Market Data**: The latest price of the ag2606 contract is 20,301, with a decrease of 1375 and a decline rate of 6.34%. The trading volume is 723,961 lots, an increase of 204,003 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 216,658 lots, an increase of 4562 lots [3]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of AG (silver call options) is 190,133, an increase of 61,349; the open interest is 127,332, an increase of 2563. The trading volume of AG (silver put options) is 260,209, an increase of 153,033; the open interest is 118,493, an increase of 3974. The trading volume PCR is 1.37, with a change of 0.54, and the open interest PCR is 0.93, with a change of 0.01 [4]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: For the ag2604 contract, the at - the - money strike price is 20,400, the pressure level is 37,600, the support level is 5000, the weighted implied volatility is 91.10%, with a change of 2.85%, the annual average implied volatility is 45.14%, and HISV20 is 86.85% [5]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy is recommended. For volatility strategy, a neutral short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy can be constructed to obtain option time value. Positions should be dynamically adjusted to make the delta of the positions neutral, such as S_AG2604P19600, S_AG2604P2000, S_AG2604C21800, S_AG2604C22000 [7]. 3.2. Gold (AU) - **Futures Market Data**: The latest price of the au2604 contract is 1110 (the actual closing price in the analysis is 1118.34), with a decrease of 23.26 and a decline rate of 2.03%. The trading volume is 214,294 lots, an increase of 35,929 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 94,528 lots, a decrease of 8146 lots [16][19]. - **Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR**: The trading volume of AU (gold call options) is 56,132, an increase of 15,603; the open interest is 59,647, an increase of 702. The trading volume of AU (gold put options) is 63,719, an increase of 34,375; the open interest is 43,492, a decrease of 98. The trading volume PCR is 1.14, with a change of 0.41, and the open interest PCR is 0.73, with a change of - 0.01 [17]. - **Option Factor - Pressure and Support**: For the au2604 contract, the at - the - money strike price is 1200, the pressure level is 1200, the support level is 1000, the weighted implied volatility is 37.33%, with a change of 1.56%, and the annual average implied volatility is 26.48% [18][19]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: No directional strategy is recommended. For volatility strategy, a combination strategy of selling call and put options can be constructed to obtain option time value. Positions should be dynamically adjusted to keep the delta of the positions neutral, such as S_AU2604P1112, S_AU2604C1152 [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a possibility judgment on the investment rating of various varieties, with a cautious bullish view on most varieties such as stock indices (IH, IF, IC), crude oil, methanol, etc., and a cautious bearish view on some varieties like rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore [5] Core View of the Report - Due to the expected alleviation of transportation disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the anticipation of more countries releasing crude oil reserves, international oil prices have declined, easing inflation concerns and leading to a rise in the three major US stock indices. The market is gradually shifting from "expectation-driven" to "profit-driven", and long-term stock index trends will return to the domestic fundamentals and policies. Geopolitical risks have an impact on various commodity prices, and different varieties have different price trends and influencing factors [1][3] Summary by Directory 1. Key News of the Day International News - On March 16, leaders of Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada issued a joint statement on the Lebanon situation, calling for the easing of the escalating conflict between Israel and Lebanon's Hezbollah and promoting a political negotiation to resolve the crisis [6] Domestic News - On March 16, the Shanghai branch of the People's Bank of China and the Shanghai regulatory bureau of the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for commercial housing loans in Shanghai to no less than 30% [7][8] Industry News - On March 16, the groundbreaking ceremony of the Global R & D Center (Headquarters) project of Ziehome was held in Zhengzhou. The project has a total investment of 400 million yuan and a total construction area of over 70,000 square meters, aiming to enhance the company's core competitiveness in the global home cross - border e - commerce field [9] 2. Daily Returns of Overseas Markets - The report shows the daily returns of various overseas market varieties from March 13 to March 16, including the S&P 500, FTSE China A50 futures, ICE Brent crude oil, etc., with different price changes and percentage changes [10] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - **Stock Indices**: The three major US stock indices rebounded. The previous trading day, the stock index bottomed out and rebounded. With the disclosure of annual and first - quarter reports, the market will shift from "general rise" to "selecting alpha", and long - term trends will return to domestic fundamentals and policies [3][12][13] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds continued to decline. Although short - term treasury bond futures are supported, long - term treasury bond futures are under pressure due to rising inflation expectations [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The SC night session declined. Due to the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, oil prices are expected to remain high and volatile in the short term [2][15] - **Methanol**: The methanol night session declined. The operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants decreased, and the inventory in coastal areas increased [16] - **Rubber**: Rubber is in the low - production season. With stable demand and relatively independent price trends, the rubber price is expected to be volatile and bullish [17] - **Polyolefins**: Polyolefins closed up on Monday but declined significantly at night. The market is affected by the international oil price and macro factors, and the future trend depends on the actual operating conditions of the plants [18] - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Both glass and soda ash futures declined slightly. There is inventory pressure in both industries, and they should be rationally dealt with in the face of macro - influence [20] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Precious metals oscillated at night. In the long term, the price center of precious metals will continue to rise due to multiple factors [21] - **Copper**: The copper price rose at night. The supply of concentrates is tight, and the copper price may fluctuate in the short term [22] - **Zinc**: The zinc price fell at night. The supply of zinc concentrates is temporarily tight, and the zinc price may follow the overall trend of non - ferrous metals [23] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell at night. Due to geopolitical conflicts, the supply risk of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is increasing, and the long - term low inventory and stable demand provide support for the price [24] Black Metals - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The main contracts of coking coal and coke oscillated at night. The supply pressure of coking coal is increasing, and the rigid demand is weakening, but the future trend is not overly pessimistic [25] Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The night session of soybean and rapeseed meal was weak. The harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans is lower than the same period, and the price is supported by supply uncertainties [2][26] - **Oils and Fats**: The night session of oils and fats was weak. The de - stocking of Malaysian palm oil was lower than expected, and the price may be affected by geopolitical conflicts [27] - **Hogs**: The national hog market is in a weak and stable state, with a large year - on - year decline in price, and the market is expected to be stable with local narrow - range adjustments [28] - **Sugar**: The main contract of Zhengzhou sugar declined slightly at night. The short - term raw sugar will oscillate, and the domestic sugar price is affected by the external market [29] - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton increased in position and rose at night. With the implementation of the import quota policy and tight supply - demand expectations, the cotton price may rise in the long term [30][31] Shipping Index - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The EC index fell 4.03%. The main logic of the European line is gradually returning to supply - demand pricing, and the freight rate is expected to enter an oscillating upward channel [32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for Treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strong domestic economic indicators are negative for the bond market, and the war and inflation situations that the bond market is more concerned about are not optimistic. Currently, the impact of the war on the bond market is mainly negative. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach for the time being and pay attention to hedging strategies [3][35][38] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Economic Data Shows a Good Start and Industrial Structure Continues to Upgrade - In January - February, economic data exceeded expectations. Industrial added - value increased by 6.3% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 2.8% year - on - year. The improvement of economic data is consistent with the positive trends of other economic indicators [7][10] - On the production side, strong export demand and pre - holiday rush work by enterprises drove industrial growth to exceed expectations. High - tech manufacturing added - value growth rate increased significantly. On the investment side, fiscal policy and structural monetary policy promoted the increase of investment in infrastructure, manufacturing, and the decline of real estate development investment narrowed. On the consumption side, policies such as national subsidies and the long Spring Festival holiday led to the release of consumer demand [10] - There are still concerns about economic growth. The sustainability of endogenous repair momentum needs to be observed, and the US - Iran war may impact exports [2][11] 3.2 Export is Strong and the Spring Festival is Late, Leading to Faster Industrial Production - In January - February, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added - value was 6.3%, and the month - on - month growth rate in February was 0.83%, higher than the average of the previous three years. Export growth and pre - holiday rush work by enterprises due to the late Spring Festival promoted industrial production [12] - High - tech industries and export - related industries had high added - value growth rates, while the growth rates of upstream metal smelting industries were generally low. It is expected that the year - on - year reading of industrial added - value in March will decline slightly, and there are both supports and concerns for industrial production in Q2 [14] 3.3 National Subsidies and Holiday Demand Release Lead to a Steady Increase in Consumption - In January - February, social consumer goods retail increased by 2.8% year - on - year, and the month - on - month growth rates in January and February exceeded the average of the previous three years. National subsidies and the long Spring Festival holiday promoted consumption [16] - In terms of structure, catering service consumption grew faster than commodity retail, online consumption was active, real - estate post - cycle consumer goods retail increased, and the retail growth rate of gold and silver jewelry was high. In the future, consumption growth is expected to be stable with a slight increase, and the main risk is the weakening of external demand [21] 3.4 Policy is Front - loaded and Investment is Significantly Improved - The improvement of investment growth rate is obvious and exceeds market expectations. In January - February, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, and the decline of private investment narrowed [22] - Infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investment growth rates all rebounded. Infrastructure investment growth rate rebounded significantly, mainly due to the front - loaded fiscal policy. In the future, infrastructure growth rate is expected to be higher than last year [24][25] - Manufacturing investment growth rate also improved significantly, mainly due to the effect of policy financial instruments and other factors. In the future, the investment growth rate of high - tech industries is expected to be high, and the main risk is the weakening of external demand [28] - Although most real - estate data are weak, there are also some positive changes, such as the narrowing of the decline in real - estate development investment and the increase in the price of new and second - hand houses in 70 large and medium - sized cities. However, the sustainability of the improvement in real - estate data is not high [31][32] 3.5 Inflation Pressure Increases and the Bond Market is Temporarily Weak - The strong domestic economic indicators are negative for the bond market. The war has a negative impact on the bond market, with the market's concern about inflation being stronger than that about stagnation in the short term [35] - Short - term bond varieties perform better than long - term ones. It is recommended to adopt a bearish approach in the short - term, pay attention to hedging strategies, and consider a strategy of making the yield curve steeper [35][36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that the Shanghai rubber futures (RU) 2605 contract will maintain a shock - and - slightly - up trend on Tuesday, and the synthetic rubber futures (BR) will also maintain a similar trend [1][5][7]. 3. Summary Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: shock; Medium - term: shock; Intraday: shock and slightly up; Overall reference view: shock and slightly up [1] - **Core Logic**: The US increased military pressure on Iran, escalating the US - Iran conflict and keeping the international crude oil futures prices strong, which boosts domestic energy - chemical commodity futures prices. With the new tapping season approaching, the supply of natural rubber is expected to increase. Although the RU 2605 contract showed a shock - and - slightly - down trend in the night session on Monday, the decline space is limited [5] 3.2 Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Short - term, Medium - term, and Intraday Views**: Short - term: shock and slightly up; Medium - term: shock and slightly up; Intraday: shock and slightly up; Overall reference view: shock and slightly up [1] - **Core Logic**: The US - Iran conflict escalated, and the international energy agency members agreed to release 400 million barrels of strategic reserve crude oil, with the US releasing 172 million barrels to suppress the rapid rise of oil prices. The synthetic rubber futures showed a shock - and - slightly - down trend in the night session on Monday. It is expected to maintain a shock - and - slightly - up trend on Tuesday [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View - On March 16, the four major stock index futures contracts showed mixed performance. IF rose 0.06%, IH fell 0.26%, IC fell 0.62%, and IM fell 0.21%. The total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 18,942, 20,073, 26,553, and 16,749 lots respectively. The total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 2,094, 6,105, 9,562, and 5,454 lots respectively. The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1 [1][2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - **CSI 300**: The closing price was 4,671.6, up 0.05%, with a trading volume of 598.8 billion [1] - **IF Contracts**: IF2603 closed at 4,662.8, up 0.06%, with a basis of -8.76, a trading volume of 94.02 billion, a trading volume of 67,565 lots (up 9,108 lots), and an open interest of 89,335 lots (down 8,940 lots); IF2604 closed at 4,644.6, up 0.07%, with a basis of -26.96, a trading volume of 11.23 billion, a trading volume of 8,100 lots (up 1,689 lots), and an open interest of 18,315 lots (up 2,576 lots); IF2606 closed at 4,589, up 0.03%, with a basis of -82.56, a trading volume of 47.76 billion, a trading volume of 34,844 lots (up 5,113 lots), and an open interest of 112,278 lots (up 4,231 lots); IF2609 closed at 4,510, down 0.06%, with a basis of -161.6, a trading volume of 18.67 billion, a trading volume of 13,853 lots (up 3,032 lots), and an open interest of 53,746 lots (up 4,227 lots) [1] - **SSE 50**: The closing price was 2,954.1, down 0.09%, with a trading volume of 143.86 billion [1] - **IH Contracts**: IH2603 closed at 2,952, down 0.26%, with a basis of -2.09, a trading volume of 28.96 billion, a trading volume of 32,801 lots (up 10,113 lots), and an open interest of 42,749 lots (down 2,343 lots); IH2604 closed at 2,948.8, down 0.38%, with a basis of -5.29, a trading volume of 4.13 billion, a trading volume of 4,685 lots (up 565 lots), and an open interest of 9,098 lots (up 1,027 lots); IH2606 closed at 2,942.2, down 0.20%, with a basis of -11.89, a trading volume of 15.57 billion, a trading volume of 17,689 lots (up 7,538 lots), and an open interest of 40,129 lots (up 6,466 lots); IH2609 closed at 2,906, down 0.11%, with a basis of -48.09, a trading volume of 4.45 billion, a trading volume of 5,129 lots (up 1,857 lots), and an open interest of 18,184 lots (up 955 lots) [1] - **CSI 500**: The closing price was 8,185.2, down 0.66%, with a trading volume of 460.8 billion [1] - **IC Contracts**: IC2603 closed at 8,178.4, down 0.62%, with a basis of -6.75, a trading volume of 133.24 billion, a trading volume of 81,995 lots (up 8,822 lots), and an open interest of 84,448 lots (down 5,205 lots); IC2604 closed at 8,136.8, down 0.56%, with a basis of -48.35, a trading volume of 22.36 billion, a trading volume of 13,846 lots (up 4,793 lots), and an open interest of 27,314 lots (up 5,852 lots); IC2606 closed at 8,003.4, down 0.56%, with a basis of -181.8, a trading volume of 87.95 billion, a trading volume of 55,370 lots (up 11,153 lots), and an open interest of 125,491 lots (up 6,550 lots); IC2609 closed at 7,838.8, down 0.55%, with a basis of -346.4, a trading volume of 28.88 billion, a trading volume of 18,568 lots (up 1,785 lots), and an open interest of 65,094 lots (up 2,365 lots) [1] - **CSI 1000**: The closing price was 8,211.4, down 0.04%, with a trading volume of 489.13 billion [1] - **IM Contracts**: IM2603 closed at 8,187, down 0.21%, with a basis of -24.35, a trading volume of 183.73 billion, a trading volume of 112,837 lots (up 335 lots), and an open interest of 114,967 lots (down 11,071 lots); IM2604 closed at 8,121, down 0.20%, with a basis of -90.35, a trading volume of 27.67 billion, a trading volume of 17,143 lots (up 2,446 lots), and an open interest of 37,939 lots (up 16,477 lots); IM2606 closed at 7,952.8, down 0.18%, with a basis of -258.6, a trading volume of 104.47 billion, a trading volume of 66,103 lots (up 10,136 lots), and an open interest of 144,888 lots (up 9,638 lots); IM2609 closed at 7,742.8, down 0.23%, with a basis of -468.6, a trading volume of 34.92 billion, a trading volume of 22,696 lots (up 3,832 lots), and an open interest of 83,770 lots (up 3,016 lots) [1] 2. Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes - The total trading volume of IF increased by 18,942 lots, IH by 20,073 lots, IC by 26,553 lots, and IM by 16,749 lots. The total open interest of IF increased by 2,094 lots, IH by 6,105 lots, IC by 9,562 lots, and IM by 5,454 lots [2] 3. Top 20 Member Position Changes - **IF Contracts**: IF2603 had a decrease of 5,400 in long positions and a net change of 1,538; a decrease of 8,440 in short positions and a net change of 1,026; IF2604 had an increase of 2,106 in long positions and 2,230 in short positions; IF2606 had an increase of 1,958 in long positions and 3,222 in short positions; IF2609 had an increase of 2,874 in long positions and 4,014 in short positions [5] - **IH Contracts**: IH2603 had a decrease of 1,235 in long positions and a net change of 5,776; a decrease of 1,384 in short positions and a net change of 6,623; IH2604 data was not announced; IH2606 had an increase of 5,642 in long positions and 6,737 in short positions; IH2609 had an increase of 1,369 in long positions and 1,270 in short positions [5] - **IC Contracts**: IC2603 had a decrease of 2,771 in long positions and a decrease of 2,629 in short positions with a net change of 9,590; IC2604 had an increase of 4,209 in long positions and 4,326 in short positions; IC2606 had an increase of 3,973 in long positions and 5,816 in short positions; IC2609 had an increase of 1,894 in long positions and 2,077 in short positions [5] - **IM Contracts**: IM2603 had a decrease of 6,843 in long positions and a decrease of 8,435 in short positions; IM2604 had an increase of 2,615 in long positions with a net change of 2,756 and an increase of 3,030 in short positions with a net change of 2,632; IM2606 had an increase of 6,984 in long positions and 8,037 in short positions; IM2609 data was not announced [5] 4. Trend Strength - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend strength ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6] 5. Important Drivers - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Paris, France, and reached some new consensuses. They agreed to study the establishment of a cooperation mechanism to promote bilateral trade and investment. China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests [6][7] - China's economic report for the first two months of the "15th Five - Year Plan" showed that national fixed - asset investment increased by 1.8% year - on - year, excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 11.1%. Industrial added value above designated size increased by 6.3%, the service industry production index increased by 5.2%, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 2.8% [7] - US President Trump said that attacking the oil infrastructure on Iran's Kharg Island is still an option. He hopes that European countries, Japan, and South Korea will assist in ensuring the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, but German Chancellor Merz said Germany will not participate. Trump also called on the Federal Reserve to hold a "special meeting" to cut interest rates and criticized Fed Chairman Powell [8] 6. Market Performance - **A - shares**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to 4,084.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41%, and the Wind All - A Index fell 0.05%. The trading volume of the market was 2.34 trillion yuan. Storage chips, advanced packaging, and HBM concepts soared, while non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and large infrastructure sectors were sluggish [9] - **Hong Kong stocks**: The Hang Seng Index rose 1.45% to 25,834.02 points, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.69%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.67%. Chip and pharmaceutical stocks led the rise, while non - ferrous metals, power, and petrochemical sectors were weak. Southbound funds had a net sell of HK$1.25 billion, while Tencent Holdings received a net buy of nearly HK$2.3 billion [10] - **US stocks**: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.83% to 46,946.41 points, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.01% to 6,699.38 points, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 1.22% to 22,374.18 points. Salesforce rose more than 2%, and Amazon rose nearly 2%. The Wind US Technology Giants Index rose 1.38%, Facebook rose more than 2%, and Nvidia rose more than 1%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 0.95%, Tencent Music rose more than 6%, and Li Auto rose more than 5% [10][11] - **International oil prices**: International oil prices declined, and investors were concerned about the latest developments in the Iran war [11] 7. Nvidia's Announcements - Nvidia CEO Huang Renxun announced several major technological breakthroughs at the GTC 2026 conference, including the DLSS 5 real - time neural rendering model, the Feynman next - generation AI chip architecture, an AI chip revenue forecast of up to $1 trillion by the end of 2027, a space computing platform, and the NemoClaw open - source AI agent platform. He emphasized that AI has become the "key infrastructure of the new industrial era" [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For stock index futures, in the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips as there is certain excess return when using stock index as a long - position substitute [3] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 16, most of the four major A - share stock indexes rose. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.26% to 4084.79 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.19% to 14307.58 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.41% to 3357.02 points, and the Science and Technology Innovation 50 Index rose 0.83% to 1384.99 points. Market trading volume was 23,399 billion yuan, a decrease of 774 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, food and beverage (+1.99%), electronics (+1.77%), and commerce and retail (+0.99%) performed well; steel (-3.16%), non - ferrous metals (-2.67%), and basic chemicals (-2.15%) performed averagely. From the perspective of market strength, IF>IM>IH>IC. The number of rising/flat/falling stocks were 2,843/152/2,490 respectively. In the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, institutional, main force, large - scale investor, and retail investor funds had net inflows of - 83, - 85, - 44, and 212 billion yuan respectively, with changes of +74, +160, - 47, and - 187 billion yuan respectively [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the next - month contracts of IM, IC, IF, and IH were 90.35, 48.35, 26.96, and 5.29 points respectively. The annualized basis yields were - 11.46%, - 6.15%, - 6.01%, and - 1.86% respectively, and the three - year historical quantiles were 34%, 45%, 20%, and 33% respectively [2] - **Trading Strategy**: In the medium to long term, maintain the judgment of going long on the economy, and it is recommended to allocate long - term contracts of various varieties on dips [3] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: On March 16, treasury bond futures showed a weak trend. Among the active contracts, TS fell 0.04%, TF fell 0.08%, T fell 0.11%, and TL fell 0.43% [3] - **Cash Bonds**: The current active contract is the 2606 contract. For the 2 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250024.IB, the yield changed by +0.5bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.055, and the IRR is 1.24%; for the 5 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250014.IB, the yield changed by +1.5bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.02, and the IRR is 1.37%; for the 10 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 250025.IB, the yield changed by +1.5bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.032, and the IRR is 1.33%; for the 30 - year treasury bond futures, the CTD bond is 210014.IB, the yield changed by +1.75bps, the corresponding net basis is 0.099, and the IRR is 1.14% [3] - **Funding Situation**: In terms of open - market operations, the central bank投放 137.3 billion yuan and withdrew 48.5 billion yuan, with a net injection of 88.8 billion yuan [3] - **Trading Strategy**: The short - term trend is unclear, so it is recommended to wait and see; in the medium to long term, with the increase in risk appetite and the expectation of economic recovery, it is recommended to hedge at high prices for T and TL contracts [3] 3.3 Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that at the beginning of March, the prosperity of various sectors declined slightly [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January - February 2026, China's economy achieved a robust start, with core economic indicators exceeding expectations. The "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern has begun to reverse. The production side showed excellent performance, and the demand side's recovery momentum was also beyond expectations. However, there are still core short - boards in economic recovery, such as weak consumption of large - scale durable goods like cars and low real - estate sales [2]. - The conflict in the Persian Gulf continues to escalate, which has a significant impact on the global market. Gold and industrial metals have shown different trends. Gold's short - term correction is due to liquidity stampede under extreme panic, while industrial metals' differentiation is due to the rigidity difference in the industrial chain and supply chain [2]. - For various commodities, different trends and investment suggestions are presented based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions, such as the expected price range and investment strategies for lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and other products [8][9][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: China's economy achieved a "good start", and the economic data from January to February showed that the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.8%. The real estate development investment decreased by 11.1% year - on - year. The global market focus is on the escalating Persian Gulf geopolitical situation [1][2]. - **Renminbi Exchange Rate**: The RMB exchange rate is expected to appreciate moderately due to China's good economic start and policy support. Short - term export enterprises are advised to lock in forward exchange settlement at around 6.93, and import enterprises can adopt a rolling foreign exchange purchase strategy at around 6.85 [2][3][4]. - **Stock Index**: The Middle East crisis is expected to ease, which may drive the stock index to repair. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index performing relatively well [4][5]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The treasury bonds were under pressure due to rising oil prices and improved economic data. The short - term bullish factors for the bond market are insufficient, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize. Short - term long positions are advised to wait for high - selling opportunities, and if the market continues to decline, they can buy at low prices [6][7]. Commodities New Energy - **Lithium Carbonate**: The bottom support is solid. In the short term, the price is expected to fluctuate widely between 140,000 - 170,000 yuan/ton, and the long - term value support from the industry fundamentals remains stable [8][9]. - **Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon**: They are in a range - bound state. The industry is at the bottom of the current production cycle, and attention should be paid to the improvement of the supply - demand pattern and the "anti - involution" process [10][11][12]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East is a concern. The short - term trend of Shanghai aluminum is dominated by the war situation, and long positions or call options can be held. Alumina has mixed long and short news, and it is recommended to wait and see. Casting aluminum alloy has strong follow - up to Shanghai aluminum, and attention can be paid to the price difference between it and aluminum [14][15][16]. - **Copper**: Attention should be paid to the increase in copper price volatility. For industrial customers, pay attention to the replenishment opportunity when the price drops to the 98,000 - 99,000 range; for speculative customers, pay attention to the pressure around 100,000 and the support in the above - mentioned range [16][18][19]. - **Zinc**: It is weak and volatile, and the upward pressure is high, waiting for the impact of energy costs [19]. - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel is weak in the short term and is expected to be strong in the medium term. Stainless steel has limited logical changes, and attention should be paid to the demand release rhythm [19][20][21]. - **Tin**: It is weak in the short term and the center of gravity is upward in the long term [22]. - **Lead**: It is expected to fluctuate and gradually stop falling [22]. Oils and Fats & Feeds - **Oilseeds**: The short - term emotional high point has appeared. The large - supply logic in the medium term remains unchanged, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is expected to be repaired [24][25]. - **Oils**: The oil market follows the trend of crude oil and is expected to be strong in the short term, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [25][26][27]. Energy and Oil & Gas - **SC**: The geopolitical situation dominates the pricing logic. The crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and the focus this week is on the actual passage situation of the Strait of Hormuz and the development of the US - Iran conflict [28][29]. - **Fuel Oil**: The high - level fluctuation continues, and the short - term strong pattern in the Asian fuel oil market is expected to continue [29][30]. - **Asphalt**: The short - term price is supported, but the demand is limited. Attention should be paid to position control and combined strategies [31]. Precious Metals - **Platinum & Palladium**: They are oscillating strongly. In the long term, the bull market foundation remains, but short - term adjustments due to delayed interest - rate cut expectations should be vigilant. Attention should be paid to the impact of the FOMC meeting and other factors [32][33]. - **Gold & Silver**: They are oscillating weakly at a low level. Strategically, it is still recommended to be bullish on precious metals in the long term, and attention should be paid to the support levels [33][34][35]. Chemicals - **Pulp - Offset Paper**: The pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely in the short and medium term, and the offset paper futures are expected to fluctuate within a range [37][38]. - **Pure Benzene - Styrene**: They are expected to be oscillating strongly before the Strait of Hormuz issue is resolved, but the unilateral fluctuation is large, and risks should be noted [38][39][40]. - **PP & Propylene**: The short - term supply pressure of PP is limited, and propylene is expected to be strong in the future. Attention should be paid to the Middle East situation and the passage of the Strait of Hormuz [40][41][42]. - **Plastic**: The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is suppressed by high prices. The market is mainly affected by news, and attention should be paid to the Middle East situation [43][44]. - **Rubber**: The synthetic rubber may maintain a strong wide - range oscillation, and natural rubber is expected to stabilize in oscillation. Specific investment strategies are provided [45][50][72]. - **Glass & Soda Ash**: Soda ash has high supply pressure, and glass has high inventory risks. The price is affected by multiple factors [51][52]. Black Metals - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The cost of furnace materials supports the steel price, but the high inventory of hot - rolled coils limits the price increase. The steel price is expected to rebound in the short term, but the rebound height is limited [51][52]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is short - term strong, but the supply - demand pattern is still oversupplied. It is recommended to take profit on long positions at high prices [53][54][55]. - **Coking Coal & Coke**: The supply - demand contradiction may deteriorate further. The coal - coke price has bottom support but is restricted by the oversupply problem [55][56][57]. - **Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese**: The cost support is increasing, but the upward space is limited due to weak downstream demand and high inventory pressure [57][58]. Agricultural and Soft Commodities - **Hogs**: The pig price is supported by secondary fattening sentiment but lacks upward driving force. It is recommended to sell call options on the main hog contract [59]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is supported by the supply - demand situation in this and the next year. The import quota issuance may lead to a short - term correction, but the price is still likely to rise [60][61][62]. - **Sugar**: The sugar price may oscillate strongly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of ethanol and oil prices [62][63]. - **Eggs**: The egg price is expected to rise in the long term due to increasing demand and rising costs. It is recommended to sell call options on the main egg contract [63][64][65]. - **Apples**: The apple futures are supported by fundamentals and delivery logic, and the 05 contract is expected to maintain a strong oscillation [73][74]. - **Jujubes**: The jujube price is under pressure due to sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [74][75]. - **Logs**: The inventory decline reduces the pressure on the futures price, and the import cost increase provides support. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range trading [75][76].

行业 国债日报 日期 2026 年 3 月 17 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 银行间各主要期限利率现券收益率全线抬升，十年国债收益率上行幅度在 2bp 以内，至下午 16：30，10 年国债活跃券 250016 收益率报 1.8350%上行 1.7bp。 每日报告 | | 表1：国债期货3月16日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | TL ...