Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the pig price is expected to remain stable in the future despite a decline in August due to factors such as heavy weight slaughtering and the spread of African swine fever [3][13] - The average national pig sales price in August 2025 was 13.77 yuan/kg, down 5.35% month-on-month and down 32.35% year-on-year [3][13] - The report highlights that the supply of pigs may gradually tighten in the future due to a decrease in the proportion of large pigs in stock and an increase in the proportion of large pigs being slaughtered [4][17] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - In August 2025, the national pig slaughter volume was 4.3388 million heads, an increase of 4.34% month-on-month and 5.66% year-on-year [3][13] - The report notes that the completion rate of pig slaughtering plans was 100.04% in August, with a planned increase of 3.92% in September compared to actual slaughter in August [3][13] Market Dynamics - The structure of pig slaughtering shows an increase in the proportion of large pigs (over 150kg) being slaughtered, while the proportion of large pigs in stock has decreased [4][17] - The average profit for self-breeding and self-raising pigs in August was 36.80 yuan/head, a decrease of 63.80% month-on-month [5][20] Company Performance - A total of 12 listed pig farming companies reported a combined slaughter of 15.116 million heads in August, an increase of 29.79% year-on-year [6][23] - The average sales price of pigs for major listed companies decreased month-on-month, with specific companies reporting the following prices: - Muyuan Foods: 13.51 yuan/kg, down 5.5% - Wens Foodstuffs: 13.90 yuan/kg, down 6.5% - New Hope Liuhe: 13.54 yuan/kg, down 6.9% [7][28]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a sudden surge, approaching 3900 points, despite a decline in trading volume from an average of nearly 3 trillion to 2.3 trillion [1] - The AI computing sector significantly boosted the Sci-Tech 50 Index, which rose by 5.5% [1] - Concerns about whether the shrinking volume indicates a trap or an opportunity are prevalent among investors [1] Fund Flows - Margin trading accounted for 11.5% of total trading volume, with a weekly net inflow of 51.8 billion, more than double the previous week [1] - Industry-themed ETFs attracted 101 billion over the past four weeks, indicating that investors are not withdrawing but rather seeking direction [1][3] Economic Indicators - August CPI fell by 0.4% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from last year, particularly in food prices [4] - Core CPI rose to 0.9%, indicating stable recovery in domestic demand [4] - PPI showed signs of improvement, with a month-on-month stability and a year-on-year decline of 2.9%, narrowing from -3.6% in previous months [4][6] Sector Analysis - Upstream industries such as coal, oil, steel, and non-ferrous metals showed significant PPI improvements, supported by recent anti-involution policies [6] - The recovery in upstream sectors is expected to positively impact the entire industrial chain, providing fundamental support for A-shares [6] External Environment - The U.S. is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for two more cuts this year [8] - A weaker dollar and increased liquidity may lead to foreign capital flowing into emerging markets, including Chinese assets [8] - Sectors such as internet stocks in Hong Kong, and financial, consumer, and new energy sectors in A-shares may benefit from foreign inflows [8] Investment Strategy - The market is in a slow bull consolidation phase, with no signs of a funding collapse or disruption in high-growth sectors [9] - Focus on sectors with policy support or PPI recovery, such as pig farming, non-ferrous metals, and basic chemicals [11] - Key signals to monitor include the continued rise of core CPI and the pace of foreign capital inflows [11]

Market Overview - The domestic financial market is experiencing a "bull-bear showdown," with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3900 points and the ChiNext Index stabilizing above 3000 points, while the Sci-Tech 50 surged over 5% in a week [1] - The A-share market's rise is supported by strong performance in the AI sector, particularly following Oracle's cloud business orders increasing by 359% to $455 billion [4][5] - The bond market is seeing collective interest rate increases across all maturities, with the 2-year treasury yield rising by 1.75 basis points to 1.42% and the 10-year yield increasing by 2.2 basis points to 1.79% [9][10] Sector Performance - The electronics, AI, and related sectors are experiencing significant rebounds, driven by Oracle's strong financial results and Micron's announcement of a 20%-30% price increase on all products due to supply concerns [5][7] - The agricultural sector is benefiting from government policies, with the agricultural and forestry sector rising by 4.52% in a week, and stocks like Muyuan Foods reaching new highs for 2023 [7] - The real estate sector is also performing well, with a nearly 6% increase in a week following policy adjustments in Shenzhen [7] Commodity Market Dynamics - The commodity market is showing signs of divergence, with gold prices rising 1.58% to surpass $3600 per ounce due to Fed rate cut expectations and geopolitical tensions [11] - In contrast, domestic black commodities are under pressure, with rebar prices declining by 0.36% amid rising inventories and weak demand [11] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic data for August, including industrial output and retail sales, will be released soon, which could influence market sentiment and stock performance [13][15] - The upcoming meetings of the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan are critical, as any unexpected policy changes could impact global asset prices [15][17]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report The report indicates that the supply of live pigs is increasing while demand is weak, leading to a weak and volatile market for live pigs [1]. Summary by Directory Current Pig Farming Overview - Pig inventory has recovered and increased from a low point [8]. - Pig prices have remained at a low level [8]. - The pig farming cycle is in a recession after a period of prosperity [8]. Pig Supply and Demand Fundamental Analysis - Domestic pig inventory is relatively stable [13]. - Domestic pork prices are at a relatively low level [13][26]. - The market is looking forward to the peak demand season during the double festivals [13]. - Imported pork accounts for a very low proportion, with a relatively limited impact [40]. Short - and Medium - Term Weak and Volatile Pig Market - The pig cycle is shortened and lengthened under the influence of information industrialization and industrial informatization [42]. - The formation and influence of capital in the pig farming industry [42]. - The pig - grain ratio and government regulation [42]. - Uncertainties in trade negotiations between China and the US, Canada, etc. [42]. - Changes in domestic demand [42]. Pig Market's Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: cost - end and state reserve support; uncertainties in tariff negotiations between China and the US, Canada, etc. [44]. - Bearish factors: short - term relatively high pig inventory; weak demand growth [44].

Core Insights - The article discusses the economic challenges faced by households in 2025, highlighting a slowdown in wage growth and rising living costs, which has led families to cut back on dining out and focus on home cooking [3] - Despite these challenges, there are four major "price drops" expected to provide relief to consumers, including in the real estate, automotive, small appliance, and pork markets [3] Group 1: Real Estate Market - The domestic real estate market continues its downward trend, with second-hand home prices falling for over 30 months, and a year-on-year decline of 7.34% in August [5] - A new round of price adjustments is anticipated post-September, with developers likely to sell new homes at discounted prices to recover funds [5] - The increase in second-hand home listings will lead homeowners to lower prices by 10-15% to facilitate sales [5][7] Group 2: Automotive Market - The automotive market is entering a new "price drop" phase, with domestic mid-range cars seeing price reductions of 20,000 to 30,000 yuan, and imported high-end cars dropping nearly 90,000 yuan [8] - The second-hand car market is also experiencing significant depreciation, with some vehicles losing 70,000 to 80,000 yuan in value within a year [8] - Factors contributing to this price drop include oversupply, delayed vehicle replacement plans due to stagnant income growth, and increased competition from tech companies entering the automotive sector [8] Group 3: Small Appliance Market - Small appliances such as air fryers and robotic vacuums are experiencing price drops of around 10-20% [10] - Rapid technological advancements and the need to clear old inventory are driving retailers to reduce prices [10] - Increased competition from numerous brands entering the market has intensified price wars [10][11] Group 4: Pork Market - Pork prices have significantly decreased, currently ranging from 20 to 22 yuan per kilogram, with expectations to drop to 16 to 18 yuan [13] - The decline in prices is attributed to an oversupply in the market due to previous high prices attracting more producers, changing consumer preferences towards leaner meats, and reduced purchasing power among consumers [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of China Hainan Branch is prioritizing financial services for rural revitalization, focusing on key areas and weaknesses to enhance financial services in rural agriculture and support farmers' development [1][6]. Group 1: Financial Services for Aquaculture - The East Star Grouper aquaculture industry in Hainan is experiencing significant growth due to favorable geographical conditions, with farmers like Mr. Huang expanding their operations despite facing financial challenges [2][3]. - The Bank of China Hainan Branch provided a tailored financial service plan for Mr. Huang, resulting in a loan of 500,000 yuan, which enabled him to improve his aquaculture practices and expand his business [3]. - Since 2025, the bank has issued loans to 42 East Star Grouper farmers, totaling 16.76 million yuan, facilitating their market expansion [3]. Group 2: Financial Support for Tropical Fruit Industry - Farmers like Mr. Chen are expanding their Hami melon cultivation due to high demand, but face liquidity issues for operational costs [4]. - The Bank of China Le Dong Branch responded by offering a favorable "Yunong Loan" with simplified approval processes, resulting in loans totaling 75.6 million yuan for 241 Hami melon farmers by June 2025 [4]. Group 3: Agricultural Financing Innovations - The Bank of China Hainan Branch is optimizing its "Yunong Quick Loan" information archiving model to better understand the financial needs of farmers and provide tailored loans [5]. - The bank is enhancing the diversity and accessibility of its financial products to support high-quality development in rural industries [6]. Group 4: Support for Agricultural Enterprises - The Bank of China Haikou Qiongshan Branch established a green channel for agricultural credit, providing a 60 million yuan loan to a pig farming company facing cash flow issues due to price fluctuations [7]. - The bank is prioritizing financial services for key agricultural enterprises and has signed cooperation agreements to support food security initiatives [7]. Group 5: Rural Payment Environment Improvement - The Bank of China Hainan Branch is improving payment acceptance tools in rural areas and promoting digital RMB payment scenarios to reduce operational costs for rural merchants [8]. - The bank is developing a new model for inclusive financial services through the "Yunong Tong APP + service points," addressing financial service challenges in rural areas [8].

Company Overview - Tianbang Food Co., Ltd. is located in Minhang District, Shanghai, and was established on September 25, 1996. The company was listed on April 3, 2007. Its main business involves pig farming and pork product processing [1] - The revenue composition of Tianbang Food includes 63.82% from pig farming, 33.25% from food processing, 2.85% from feed products, and 0.08% from other sources [1] Stock Performance - As of September 16, Tianbang Food's stock price decreased by 2.18%, trading at 3.14 CNY per share, with a total market capitalization of 6.977 billion CNY [1] - Year-to-date, the stock price has increased by 12.54%, with a 1.95% rise over the last five trading days, 4.67% over the last 20 days, and 6.08% over the last 60 days [1] - The company has appeared on the "Dragon and Tiger List" once this year, with the most recent occurrence on May 8, where it recorded a net purchase of 20.5299 million CNY [1] Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, Tianbang Food achieved a revenue of 4.693 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 8.69%. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 58.14% to 352 million CNY [2] - The company has distributed a total of 1.185 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with no dividends paid in the last three years [3] Shareholder Information - As of September 10, Tianbang Food had 80,800 shareholders, an increase of 0.33% from the previous period. The average number of tradable shares per shareholder is 24,415, which has decreased by 0.33% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Agriculture is a fundamental industry in China, currently experiencing a phase of price decline and capital exit, which presents a unique investment opportunity due to its low valuation and the need to protect farmers' income [1] Group 1: Swine Industry - The swine industry is undergoing significant policy transformation aimed at capacity regulation, with a focus on protecting farmers' rights and encouraging innovation [2] - The Ministry of Agriculture and the National Development and Reform Commission will hold a meeting with 25 swine enterprises to implement capacity control measures [2] - The profitability of listed swine companies has shown substantial growth, and with the anticipated recovery in pork prices, the industry's profit center is expected to stabilize [2] - Companies with cost advantages and those that integrate farmers into their operations are likely to enjoy excess profits and valuation premiums [2] Group 2: Poultry Industry - The white feather chicken industry is facing a persistent contradiction of high capacity and weak consumption, leading to a reduction in breeding capacity [3] - Integrated enterprises and contract farming businesses are expected to increase their market share as they adapt to the changing landscape [3] - Focus on companies with improving return on equity (ROE) and sustainability, particularly quality imported breeding stock leaders and full-chain leaders [3] Group 3: Pet Industry - The pet industry is witnessing a rise in sales, with a notable increase in the concentration of leading brands [4] - The competitive landscape among top brands is intensifying, and while the overall industry concentration remains low, the leading brands are solidifying their positions [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has impacted exports, but domestic sales trends remain stable, with leading companies expected to maintain high growth rates [4] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The USDA's September report is bearish, indicating an increase in soybean planting area but a decrease in yield expectations [5][6] - The report suggests structural adjustments in demand and higher-than-expected carryover stocks, although trade easing expectations are supporting soybean prices [6] - The upcoming US-China trade negotiations are crucial, focusing on tariffs and export controls, which could influence market dynamics [6]

行业 生猪日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F0230741 研究员：洪辰亮 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures.co m 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农业产品研究团队 研究员：林贞磊 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：王海峰 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：涌益，建信期货研究中心 生猪行情： 期货方面，15 日生猪主力 2511 合约低开后震荡走高，尾盘收阳，最高 13290 元/吨，最低 13120 元/吨，收盘报 13275 元/ ...

Core Insights - The pig futures market has been experiencing a unique phenomenon since 2025, where futures prices consistently remain lower than spot prices, indicating a market expectation of a loose supply of pigs [1] - Leading companies like Muyuan Foods have established sophisticated hedging systems to manage risks effectively in this environment [2][5] - The persistent price discount in futures reflects deep concerns about supply-demand mismatches in the market [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of May 2025, the national breeding sow inventory reached 40.42 million, exceeding the normal holding level by 3.6% [3] - The self-breeding and self-raising model has been profitable for over a year, reducing the incentive for producers to cut back on production [3] - The current market shows a divergence where low-cost producers are barely profitable while high-cost producers are incurring losses, indicating a need for capacity reduction or a significant disease outbreak to change the situation [3] Group 2: Hedging Strategies - In a loose supply environment, hedging through futures is considered the optimal solution for breeding enterprises, although the low absolute value of futures prices complicates direct hedging [4] - Companies are advised to use a "futures price + basis" model for forward contracts to mitigate price risks while capturing potential gains from rising spot prices [4] - Guizhou Fuzhiyuan Technology Group has effectively utilized hedging strategies on both feed raw materials and pig products to manage price volatility risks [4][5] Group 3: Cost Management - The focus on cost reduction has become a central theme in the pig farming industry, with leading companies achieving significant profit growth through cost control measures [5][6] - Muyuan Foods emphasizes that every percentage point reduction in breeding costs can lead to substantial profit increases, highlighting the importance of internal efficiency improvements [6] - Fuzhiyuan Group aims to maintain cost competitiveness by adjusting hedging ratios based on market conditions to secure future sales profits [6] Group 4: Innovative Risk Management Tools - The flexibility of options tools is highlighted, allowing companies to tailor their hedging strategies according to specific needs [7] - Combining futures and options can provide broader protection against price declines while reducing margin requirements [7][8] - Smaller producers face challenges in directly participating in futures hedging, and are encouraged to monitor futures prices to adjust production plans accordingly [9] Group 5: Support for Small Producers - Fuzhiyuan Group's "1050" project aims to enhance the competitiveness of small producers by sharing expertise and utilizing futures tools to mitigate price risks [9] - The collaboration with insurance companies to offer "insurance + futures" solutions provides a more accessible hedging option for small producers [9]