Group 1: Swine Industry - The average price of live pigs in China on September 12 was 13.35 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.44 yuan/kg week-on-week, marking a new low for the year [1][2] - The average weight of pigs for slaughter increased slightly to 128.32 kg as of the week ending September 11, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 kg [1][2] - Short-term forecasts indicate an increase in pig supply from sample enterprises, with expected increases of 1.29%, 4.11%, and 3.92% respectively, leading to continued pressure on pig prices [3] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - Recent policies emphasize capacity regulation, which is expected to accelerate the elimination of inefficient production capacity in the industry, potentially raising the long-term price level of pigs [3] - Low-cost, high-quality pig farming companies are anticipated to gain excess returns as the industry adjusts [3] Group 3: Beef Industry - The price of calves and fattening bulls remained stable, with prices at 32.44 yuan/kg and 25.97 yuan/kg respectively as of September 12, showing a year-to-date increase of 35% and 10% [4] - The beef market is expected to tighten in the medium to long term, with a potential upward cycle anticipated between 2026 and 2027 [4] Group 4: Dairy Industry - Raw milk prices have been in a downward trend since late 2021, reaching 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 5, 2025, a cumulative decline of 31% from peak levels [5] - The ongoing losses in the dairy industry are leading to a reduction in production capacity, which may stabilize raw milk prices in the future [5] Group 5: Poultry Industry - The price of white feather broilers decreased to 7.02 yuan/kg as of September 12, with a week-on-week decline of 0.20 yuan/kg due to increased supply [6] - Egg prices rebounded to an average of 7.15 yuan/kg from September 8-12, with a week-on-week increase of 0.62 yuan/kg, driven by pre-festival stocking [6] Group 6: Agricultural Products - Soybean meal futures and spot prices showed mixed trends, with futures at 3079 yuan/ton and spot prices at 3060 yuan/ton as of September 12 [7] - The USDA's supply and demand report slightly adjusted the forecast for U.S. soybean planting area and ending stocks, indicating ongoing market dynamics [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Oil**: The main contract price of soybean oil on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fluctuated and declined this week due to obstacles in the transfer of US soybean oil biodiesel obligations and high inventory and slow sales of domestic oils. The USDA supply - demand report in September was bearish, but the market still expected a future reduction in yield per unit. The domestic soybean oil market remains in a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern. The bullish view on soybean oil in the fourth quarter remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold long positions in the Y2601 contract, with support at 8300 - 8310 and resistance at 8550 - 8600 yuan/ton [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: China's temporary anti - dumping measures on imported Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce Canadian rapeseed procurement. Increased imports from Russia/Dubai and Australia can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by 3.6% to 19.9 million tons. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is still uncertainty in Canadian rapeseed trade policies. Domestic rapeseed oil inventory has decreased week - on - week. If Canadian rapeseed imports are significantly reduced, domestic rapeseed oil will continue the de - stocking process. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 9500 - 9600 and resistance at 9998 - 10333 [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil continued its seasonal inventory build - up, with the inventory at the end of August increasing by 4.18% month - on - month to 2.2025 million tons. The production from September 1 - 10 decreased by 3.17% month - on - month, and the expected increase in production in September - October is slowing. The continuous decline of US soybean oil exerts a price - comparison pressure on palm oil. However, due to the pre - festival stocking demand in India, the callback space is relatively limited. The price is expected to move sideways, with support at 9074 - 9100 and resistance at 9700 - 9736 [5]. - **Soybean Meal and Bean No. 2**: The price of soybean meal was strong this week. Due to the severe Sino - US trade situation, the price of domestic soybean meal remained firm. It is recommended to hold long positions in the main contract of soybean meal, with support at 2980 - 3000 and resistance at 3180 - 3200 yuan/ton. The No. 11 contract of Bean No. 2 is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to hold long positions, with support at 3600 - 3630 and resistance at 3950 - 4000 [3][5]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: China's anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed are expected to reduce imports. Increased imports from other regions can partially offset the supply. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase. With the extension of the anti - dumping investigation, there is uncertainty in trade policies. Domestic rapeseed meal has a de - stocking expectation. It should be treated with a sideways view, with support at 2400 - 2438 and resistance at 2632 - 2698 [4][7]. - **Soybean No. 1**: This week, Soybean No. 1 first declined and then rose, showing an overall decline. Early - maturing soybeans in the Northeast market are sporadically on the market, but the purchase volume is small and the price is not representative. As new grains are listed on a large scale, the price of new - season soybeans is expected to become clear. It is not recommended to chase long positions in Soybean No. 1, and it is advisable to short after stabilization. The No. 11 contract should pay attention to the pressure level at 4000 - 4050 yuan/ton and the support level at 3850 - 3900 yuan/ton [7]. - **Peanuts**: The planting area of new - season peanuts nationwide increased by 4.01% year - on - year. Although drought in some areas may affect local yields, there is an overall expectation of increased production. The cost of peanut planting in the Northeast and Henan has decreased year - on - year. The expected increase in production and the decline in planting cost put pressure on the futures price. With the increase in the listing volume of new - season peanuts, the seasonal supply pressure still exists. However, the futures price has partially reflected the increase in production expectation. The short - term decline has slowed down due to the approaching Mid - Autumn Festival stocking. It is recommended to trade sideways with a light short position. The No. 11 contract has support at 7500 - 7510 and resistance at 8020 - 8162 [7]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: This week, the futures prices of corn and corn starch first rose and then fell. In the overseas market, the high - yield of South American corn has been realized, and the pressure of concentrated listing is being released. Although the excellent rate of US corn has slightly decreased and there are concerns about dry weather and pests, the expectation of a good harvest remains unchanged. In the domestic market, there is a game between the purchasing enthusiasm due to low channel inventory and seasonal pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions cautiously. For the No. 11 contract of corn, the support range is 2100 - 2120, and the resistance range is 2240 - 2250. For the No. 11 contract of corn starch, the support range is 2400 - 2420, and the resistance range is 2580 - 2590 [8]. - **Pigs**: The spot price of pigs declined weakly over the weekend. The pig - grain ratio has quickly fallen below 6:1, and the breeding profit has deteriorated significantly. Under the "anti - involution" atmosphere of restricting production capacity, the near - term slaughter has increased. It is recommended that cautious investors hold anti - spread positions by shorting near - month contracts and going long on far - month contracts, while aggressive investors can hold long positions in the 2511 or 2601 contracts and buy the 2605 contract on dips in the medium term [8][9]. - **Eggs**: The spot price of eggs was strong over the weekend, and some areas continued to rebound. There are concerns about high inventory, which puts pressure on the near - term spot. The seasonal peak season in September needs further confirmation. The 10 - contract lags behind the spot price increase due to being in the off - season after the Mid - Autumn Festival. It is recommended that aggressive investors buy the 10 - or 11 - contract on dips, and pay attention to the positive spread opportunity between the 11 - and 1 - month contracts [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1 Market Analysis - **Sector and Variety Analysis**: Different sectors and varieties have different market logics, supply - demand situations, support and resistance levels, and corresponding trading strategies. For example, in the oilseed sector, Soybean No. 11 is expected to decline with a sideways trend, and it is advisable to wait and see; in the protein sector, the No. 01 contract of soybean meal is expected to be strong with a sideways trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions [12]. 3.1.2 Basis and Spot - Futures Strategy - **Basis Data**: The report provides the spot prices, price changes, main - contract basis, and basis changes of various varieties in different sectors such as oilseeds, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock farming [13][14]. 3.2 Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 3.2.1 Oils and Oilseeds - **Daily Data**: The daily data table shows the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT or ICE futures prices, CNF arrival prices, arrival - duty - paid prices, and the cost of soybean meal when the crushing profit is zero [15][16]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly data table presents the inventory and operating rates of various oils and oilseeds, such as the port inventory of soybeans, the oil - mill inventory of soybean meal, and the coastal - oil - factory inventory of rapeseeds [17]. 3.2.2 Feed - **Corn and Corn Starch Data**: The table shows the current values, week - on - week changes, and year - on - year changes of indicators such as the consumption of corn by deep - processing enterprises, the inventory of corn in deep - processing enterprises, the operating rate of starch enterprises, and the inventory of starch enterprises [18]. 3.2.3 Livestock Farming - **Pig Market Data**: It includes the spot prices, cost, profit, slaughter data, and other key weekly data of the pig market, such as the average weekly prices of二元 sows, 7KG outer - ternary piglets, and outer - ternary pigs [19]. - **Egg Market Data**: It provides data on the supply, demand, profit, and related spot prices of the egg market, such as the proportion of large, medium, and small eggs, the production rate, and the inventory in the production and circulation links [20]. 3.3 Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - **Livestock Farming (Pigs and Eggs)**: The charts track the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and other related prices of pigs and eggs [22][24][25][29]. - **Oils and Oilseeds** - **Palm Oil**: The charts show the monthly production, export volume, inventory, and other data of Malaysian palm oil, as well as the import profit, import volume, and domestic inventory of palm oil [33][34][36]. - **Soybean Oil**: The charts display the soybean crushing volume, soybean oil inventory, and crushing profit in the US, as well as the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate, inventory, and trading volume [39][40][41]. - **Peanuts**: The charts present the arrival and shipment volumes of peanuts in domestic wholesale markets, the peanut crushing profit, and the inventory of peanuts and peanut oil in pressing plants [46][48]. - **Feed Sector** - **Corn**: The charts track the spot price, futures closing price, basis, inventory, import volume, and consumption of corn, as well as the processing profit of corn ethanol in different regions [50][52][54]. - **Corn Starch**: The charts show the spot price, futures closing price, basis, operating rate, inventory, and profit of corn starch enterprises [57][59][60]. - **Rapeseed**: The charts display the spot prices of rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, the basis, inventory, and pressing volume of rapeseed in coastal oil mills [62][64][66]. - **Soybean Meal**: The charts show the flowering and pod - setting rates of US soybeans, as well as the inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in China [70][71]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Options Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Volatility and Option Data**: The report provides the historical volatility of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the trading volume, open interest, and put - call ratio of corn options [73][77][80]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock Farming, and Oils - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: The report shows the warehouse receipt data of various varieties such as rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, pigs, and eggs, as well as the open interest of the pig and egg indices [83][84][89]

农产品早报 2025-09-15 五矿期货农产品早报 五矿期货农产品团队 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 邮箱：wangja@wkqh.cn 白糖、棉花研究员 从业资格号：F03116327 交易咨询号：Z0019233 邮箱:yangzeyuan@wkqh.cn 斯小伟 油脂油料研究员 从业资格号：F03114441 交易咨询号：Z0022498 电话：028-86133280 邮箱：sxwei@wkqh.cn 王俊 组长、生鲜品研究员 【重要资讯】 周五夜盘因月报小幅调高美豆产量 CBOT 大豆盘中快速下跌，收盘前又修复跌幅，市场解读为已有预期。 周末国内豆粕现货稳定，上周国内豆粕成交尚可，提货处于高位，下游库存天数上升 0.42 天至 9.22 天。 据 MYSTEEL 统计上周国内压榨大豆 236 万吨，本周预计压榨 238 万吨。 杨泽元 美豆产区未来两周降雨量正常，8 月因干旱大豆优良率下滑，但 USDA 仅下调 0.1 蒲式耳/英亩单产，且 收割面积上调 20 万英亩。巴西方面，升贴水回落后震荡反弹。总体来看，进口大豆成本受到美豆低估 值、中美贸易关系及巴西种植季节交 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of CBOT soybeans is expected to be strong, and the price of DCE soybean meal may rebound; the price of DCE soybeans is expected to fluctuate [2][4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: DCE soybean 2511 closed at 3959 yuan/ton during the day session, up 33 yuan (+0.84%), and 3956 yuan/ton during the night session, unchanged; DCE soybean meal 2601 closed at 3070 yuan/ton during the day session, up 4 yuan (+0.13%), and 3066 yuan/ton during the night session, down 21 yuan (-0.68%); CBOT soybean 11 closed at 1045.25 cents/bushel, up 11.75 cents (+1.14%); CBOT soybean meal 12 closed at 288.3 dollars/short ton, up 0.6 dollars (+0.21%) [3] - **Spot Prices**: In Shandong, the price of soybean meal (43%) was 3060 - 3090 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan compared to the previous day; in East China, the price in Taizhou Huifu was 2990 yuan/ton; in South China, the price was 3030 - 3110 yuan/ton, up 10 - 20 yuan compared to the previous day [3] - **Industrial Data**: The trading volume of soybean meal was 10.6 million tons two trading days ago, and the inventory was 106.39 million tons two trading weeks ago [3] 2. Macro and Industry News - On September 12, 2025, CBOT soybean futures closed higher, with the benchmark contract up 1.1%. The USDA's supply - demand report showed that the estimated planting area of US soybeans was 81.1 million acres, and the harvested area was 80.3 million acres, both up 200,000 acres from the previous month. The yield per acre was 53.5 bushels, lower than the previous month. The production was slightly increased by 9 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels. The estimated crush was increased by 15 million bushels to a record 2.555 billion bushels, while exports were decreased by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels, the lowest in six years. The estimated ending inventory was increased by 10 million bushels, but some analysts said the increase was lower than market expectations [3][6] - On September 12, 2025, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce confirmed that Vice - Premier He Lifeng would lead a delegation to Spain from September 14 - 17 to hold talks with the US side on issues such as US unilateral tariff measures, abuse of export controls, and TikTok [6] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of soybean meal is +1, and the trend intensity of soybeans is 0, mainly referring to the price fluctuations of the main contracts of the day session on the reporting day [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Supported by US soybean oil, the strategy is to go long at low prices [2][4]. - **Soybean Oil**: US soybeans closed higher, and attention should be paid to the results of China - US negotiations [2][4]. - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans are strong, and Dalian soybean meal may rebound [2][10]. - **Soybean No.1**: It will move in a range [2][12]. - **Corn**: It will move in a range [2][15]. - **Sugar**: It will mainly move in a range [2][19]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the purchase of new cotton [2][23]. - **Eggs**: The peak season for spot prices is over, and inventory remains high [2][28]. - **Hogs**: The weakness of spot prices is hard to change, but policies are strong [2][30]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts [2][34]. 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's day - session and night - session closing prices were 9,296 yuan/ton (-0.36%) and 9,336 yuan/ton (0.43%) respectively; soybean oil's were 8,322 yuan/ton (-0.17%) and 8,356 yuan/ton (0.41%) respectively. CBOT soybean oil rose 1.01% [4]. - **News**: Global 2025/26 palm oil production is expected to be 8081.6 million tons, up 8 million tons from last month's estimate. Indonesia may increase the mandatory palm oil blending ratio in biodiesel to 45% (B45) [5][7]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE soybean meal 2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 3070 yuan/ton (+0.13%) and 3066 yuan/ton (-0.68%) respectively; DCE soybean No.1 2511's were 3959 yuan/ton (+0.84%) and 3956 yuan/ton (0.00%) respectively [11]. - **News**: On September 12, CBOT soybean futures closed higher due to lower yield estimates and active short - covering. The US soybean production is slightly increased to 43.01 billion bushels [11][12]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: C2511's day - session and night - session closing prices were 2,197 yuan/ton (-0.09%) and 2,196 yuan/ton (-0.05%) respectively; C2601's were 2,167 yuan/ton (-0.09%) and 2,167 yuan/ton (0.00%) respectively [16]. - **News**: Northern corn port collection prices remained flat, and Northeast enterprise corn prices were strong, while North China corn prices were stable to weak [17]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 16.52 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5940 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5540 yuan/ton [19]. - **News**: India's monsoon rainfall increased again. Brazil's sugar exports decreased. Conab lowered Brazil's 25/26 sugar production forecast [19]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2601's day - session and night - session closing prices were 13,860 yuan/ton (0.18%) and 13900 yuan/ton (0.29%) respectively. Spot prices of different regions showed slight changes [23]. - **News**: Cotton spot trading was cold, and the cotton yarn market was tepid. The USDA's monthly report adjusted China's cotton data [24]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2510 and 2601 futures prices decreased by 0.43% and 0.24% respectively. Spot prices in different regions showed some changes [28]. - **Outlook**: The peak season for spot prices is over, and inventory remains high [28]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong spot prices were 13480 yuan/ton, 13400 yuan/ton, and 14340 yuan/ton respectively. Futures prices of different contracts showed changes [30]. - **Market Logic**: The supply in September is large, and the spot price center is expected to decline. The 7 - month contract may be regulated by policies in the short term [32]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: Spot prices of different varieties showed changes, and futures prices of PK510 and PK511 decreased by 0.96% and 0.03% respectively [34]. - **Market Situation**: New peanuts in some areas are starting to be listed, with small volumes and unstable prices. New peanuts are expected to be fully listed in early October [35].

Group 1 - Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soybean oil futures prices continued to rise, opening at 52.06 cents per pound and currently at 52.40 cents per pound, with an increase of 0.54% [1] - The intraday high for soybean oil futures reached 52.41 cents per pound, while the lowest point was 52.06 cents per pound [1] Group 2 - On September 12, CBOT soybean oil futures had an opening price of 51.58 cents, a high of 52.52 cents, a low of 51.34 cents, and a closing price of 52.14 cents, reflecting a 1.26% increase [2] - As of September 12, the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) had 24,544 soybean oil futures warehouse receipts, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] - Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) C&F price increased by $12 to $1,145 per ton, while the December shipment price rose by $10 to $1,148 per ton compared to the previous trading day [2] - National first-class soybean oil trading volume was 5,500 tons on September 12, a decrease of 71.05% from the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the domestic oilseed market have led to a rise in the price spread between canola oil and soybean oil, as well as between canola oil and palm oil, indicating a strong support from traders to maintain prices [1] Price Spread Summary - On September 11, the price spread between January canola oil and soybean oil reached 1557 CNY/ton, an increase of 43 CNY/ton from the previous day and a weekly increase of 174 CNY/ton [1] - The price spread between canola oil and palm oil was 563 CNY/ton, which is up by 37 CNY/ton from the previous day and a weekly increase of 214 CNY/ton [1]

Core Insights - Chicago futures market saw a rise in corn, wheat, and soybean prices on September 12, with corn up 1.97%, wheat up 0.05%, and soybean up 1.14% [1] Group 1: Crop Reports - The USDA's September crop report predicts a record corn yield of 186.7 bushels per acre, a decrease of 2.1 bushels from August [2] - The report raises the 2025-2026 U.S. corn export forecast by 100 million bushels to 2.975 billion bushels [2] - U.S. soybean yield is forecasted at 53.5 bushels per acre, a slight decrease of 0.1 bushels from August, with total production increasing by 900 million bushels to 4.301 billion bushels [2] - The 2025-2026 U.S. soybean export forecast is lowered by 20 million bushels to 1.685 billion bushels [2] Group 2: Wheat Production and Exports - The report increases U.S. wheat export forecast by 25 million bushels to 900 million bushels [3] - Global wheat production is expected to reach a record 406.5 million tons, an increase of 9 million tons from August [3] - The 2025-2026 U.S. wheat ending stocks are projected at 844 million bushels, down from the August estimate of 869 million bushels [3] Group 3: Weather and Market Focus - Ideal weather conditions in the Mississippi River region are expected to maintain soybean yields above 53 bushels and corn yields above 186 bushels [3] - The focus for late September will be on whether China will resume its demand for U.S. agricultural products [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that agricultural futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) experienced an overall increase in prices on September 12, with significant gains in soybean, corn, and wheat futures [1][2]. Group 2 - Soybean futures rose by 1.14%, closing at 1045.25 cents per bushel [1]. - Corn futures increased by 1.97%, closing at 428.00 cents per bushel [1]. - Wheat futures saw a slight increase of 0.05%, closing at 521.75 cents per bushel [1].

Group 1 - The Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) agricultural futures showed mixed performance on September 12, with raw sugar futures decreasing by 0.06% to 15.81 cents per pound [1] - Cotton futures increased by 0.06% to 66.76 cents per pound [1] - Cocoa futures fell by 0.72% to $7474.00 per ton [1] - Coffee futures rose by 2.89% to 397.25 cents per pound [1]