Trade Recommendations for Different Futures Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Defensive waiting and observing. The slow - bull trend remains but may correct recently due to factors like market sentiment cooling and high - level technical indicators [6]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Take profit, with a trend of weakening in oscillation. The bond market may adjust in oscillation, and the approach depends on investors' positions, durations, and tolerances [6][7]. Black Building Materials - **Rebar**: Temporarily wait and observe or engage in short - term trading. The market may oscillate as the cost has adjusted, and supply - demand is balanced, with upcoming macro and industrial policies to be monitored [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Consider it as the long - leg when shorting other black varieties. Although there are issues of potential supply surplus, support from other factors keeps it oscillating at a high level [9]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Oscillate. The coking coal market has a tight short - term supply - demand pattern, and coke may see price increases, but key factors like production recovery and cost trends need attention [10][11]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Trade within a range or wait and observe. The price may oscillate due to factors such as tariff policies, supply - demand changes, and economic recovery expectations [12]. - **Aluminum**: Mainly wait and observe. There are risks in the short - term, with factors like changes in ore prices, production capacity, and demand affecting the market, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings [14]. - **Nickel**: Consider shorting at high levels. The overall supply in the nickel industry is in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate [19]. - **Tin**: Trade within a range. Supply improvement is limited, and with low overseas inventory, the price is expected to be supported [21]. - **Gold and Silver**: Trade within a range cautiously. Market sentiment and tariff policies affect their prices, and they are expected to have support at the bottom [21][22]. Energy and Chemicals - **PVC**: Oscillate, with attention to the 5150 support level. Supply is high, and export sustainability is in question, but policy expectations have an impact [24]. - **Caustic Soda**: Oscillate, with the 09 contract temporarily focusing on 2500 - 2700. Supply is abundant, and demand has rigid support but a slow - down in growth [26]. - **Styrene**: Oscillate, temporarily focusing on 7300 - 7700. Fundamental positives are limited, and the market is affected by macro factors [28]. - **Rubber**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias, temporarily paying attention to the 15000 pressure level. There is a short - term callback risk, but raw material and inventory factors support it [30]. - **Urea**: First weaken then strengthen, with support at 1700 - 1730 and pressure at 1820 - 1850. Supply decreases slightly, and demand is expected to increase, with a neutral supply - demand pattern [31]. - **Methanol**: Oscillate. Supply in some areas is tight, and demand is mixed, with a stable supply - demand situation [32]. - **Polyolefins**: Oscillate weakly. The L2509 contract focuses on 7200 - 7500, and the PP2509 contract focuses on 6900 - 7200. Supply pressure is high, and demand is in the off - season, but inventory provides some support [33]. - **Soda Ash**: Exit and wait and observe. Supply is high, and demand is under pressure, but short - term macro factors drive the market [35]. Cotton Spinning Industry - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. Global supply and demand are adjusted, and the domestic market has a tight supply, supporting the price [36]. - **Apples**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. With low inventory, the price is expected to remain high and oscillate [37]. - **Jujubes**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. New - season production and sales area conditions affect the price, which is expected to remain stable and strong [38][39]. Agricultural and Livestock Products - **Hogs**: Oscillate weakly. The short - term supply is strong, and demand is weak. Consider shorting the 09 and 11 contracts and going long on the 01 contract [40][41]. - **Eggs**: Short at high levels. Short - term price increases are limited, and supply pressure may ease in the fourth quarter [41]. - **Corn**: Oscillate within a range (2250 - 2350). Consider the 9 - 1 reverse spread. Short - term supply - demand is in a game, and mid - long - term supply is tightening [42]. - **Soybean Meal**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, go long on the M2509 contract at low levels; in the mid - long - term, pay attention to weather conditions and go long on relevant contracts at low levels [43][44]. - **Oils**: Oscillate with a slight upward bias. In the short - term, trade within the range for 09 contracts and buy on dips [45][50]. Global Major Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,593.66, down 0.33%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11,168.14, down 0.22%; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4,127.16, down 0.53%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 2,795.51, down 0.60%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 6,299.59, up 0.10%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 5,903.58, up 0.25% [2]. - The Nikkei Index closed at 41,456.23, down 0.88%; the Dow Jones Index closed at 44,901.92, up 0.47%; the S&P 500 Index closed at 6,388.64, up 0.40%; the Nasdaq Index closed at 21,108.32, up 0.24% [2]. - The US Dollar Index closed at 97.6674, up 0.18%; the RMB exchange rate was 7.1679, up 0.18% [2]. - New York Gold closed at 3,338.50, down 0.97%; WTI Crude Oil closed at 65.16, down 1.32% [2]. - LME Copper closed at 9,796.00, down 0.59%; LME Aluminum closed at 2,631.00, down 0.57%; LME Zinc closed at 2,829.00, down 0.40%; LME Lead closed at 2,020.50, down 0.12%; LME Nickel closed at 15,265.00, down 1.33% [2].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference has rebounded due to the anti - involution driving up related sectors and the rebound of the large financial sector. Overseas, the impact of US tariffs is gradually settling. Domestically, attention should be paid to the expectations of the "Central Political Bureau Meeting" in July, with anti - involution expected to be an important theme. There are opportunities for market style transformation [3]. - In the bond market, although the economic data in the second quarter remained resilient under tariff disturbances, the抢 - export effect may weaken. With weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but recent positive commodity and stock market sentiments have suppressed the bond market [4][5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to make a dovish statement in the July interest - rate meeting, and there is a possibility of more than expected interest rate cuts. It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on the opportunity to go long on silver [6]. - In the base metals market, most metal prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, inventory changes, and macro - events. For example, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, while aluminum prices may also show a similar trend [8][9]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices are supported by cost and supply - demand policies, but the market still needs to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand. Iron ore prices are expected to be volatile, and glass and soda ash prices are affected by policies and market sentiment [22][23][25]. - In the energy and chemical market, different products have different trends. For example, rubber has different views from bulls and bears, and crude oil has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand [34][35][41]. - In the agricultural products market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, weather, and policies. For example, the pig price is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and the egg price is affected by supply and demand during the peak season [54][55]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - **News**: New central enterprise China Yajiang Group's leadership was unveiled; China proposed to establish the World Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Organization; National Bureau of Statistics reported industrial enterprise profits; domestic commodity futures closed down at night; Tesla's intelligent driving plan is to be further implemented in China [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: IF, IC, IM show negative basis ratios, while IH shows positive ones. It is recommended to go long on IF futures on dips, focusing on market style transformation opportunities [3]. Treasury Bonds - **Market**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts all declined on Friday. Eurozone and US economic data were released, and the central bank conducted net capital injections [4]. - **Strategy**: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, but short - term bond market is suppressed. Wait for opportunities to enter the market on dips [5]. Precious Metals - **Market**: Gold and silver prices declined. The Fed's July interest - rate meeting is expected to be dovish, and it is recommended to go long on silver [6]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market**: Copper prices fluctuated last week. Inventory changes varied in different exchanges. It is expected to be range - bound and slightly weak, affected by macro - events and supply - demand fundamentals [8]. Aluminum - **Market**: Aluminum prices fluctuated. Domestic inventory is at a relatively low level, but the price rebound is limited due to the off - season and weak export demand [9]. Zinc - **Market**: Zinc prices declined. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the medium - and long - term price is bearish. There are short - term risks due to market sentiment [10]. Lead - **Market**: Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is marginally tightened, and if smelter inspections expand, prices may strengthen [11][12]. Nickel - **Market**: Nickel prices were slightly strong. Nickel ore prices are expected to decline, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [13]. Tin - **Market**: Tin prices were range - bound and slightly strong. Supply is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, and prices may be range - bound and slightly weak [14]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market**: Lithium carbonate prices rose. There is a strong expectation of supply - demand repair, but the real fundamentals have not changed. It is recommended that speculators wait and see [15][16]. Alumina - **Market**: Alumina prices rose slightly. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and it is recommended to go short on rallies [17]. Stainless Steel - **Market**: Stainless steel prices rose. Supply is tightening, and demand is recovering, but the oversupply situation has not been fundamentally improved [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market**: Cast aluminum alloy prices fluctuated. The off - season demand is weak, and the price is under pressure [19][20]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market**: Steel prices rose. Supported by cost and policies, but need to pay attention to policy signals and terminal demand [22]. Iron Ore - **Market**: Iron ore prices declined. Supply has rebounded, and demand remains high. Prices are expected to be volatile [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: Glass prices rose. Supported by policies and inventory reduction, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term [25]. - **Soda Ash**: Soda ash prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong in the short - term, but the long - term supply - demand contradiction exists [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market**: Both rose and hit the daily limit. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [27][28][29]. Industrial Silicon - **Market**: Industrial silicon prices rose. Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, but there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades. Fundamentally, supply is excessive [30][31][32]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - **Market**: Rubber prices declined at night. There are different views from bulls and bears, and the industry's tire production and inventory data are provided [34][35][36]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy in the medium - term, but wait and see in the short - term [39]. Crude Oil - **Market**: Crude oil prices had different trends. It has upward momentum but is limited by seasonal demand. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a target price [40][41]. Methanol - **Market**: Methanol prices rose. Affected by market sentiment, and the supply - demand situation is expected to turn to supply increase and demand decrease [42]. Urea - **Market**: Urea prices rose. Supply is decreasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to go long on dips [43]. Styrene - **Market**: Styrene prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, prices are expected to follow the cost side and fluctuate upward [44][45]. PVC - **Market**: PVC prices rose. Supply is strong, demand is weak, and there is a risk of price decline when the sentiment fades [46]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market**: Ethylene glycol prices rose. Supply and demand are both improving, but the inventory reduction is expected to slow down, and there is a risk of valuation decline [47]. PTA - **Market**: PTA prices rose. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, but demand is expected to pick up. It is recommended to go long on dips following PX [48]. Para - Xylene - **Market**: Para - xylene prices rose. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil [49]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market**: PE prices rose. Affected by macro - sentiment and cost, and the inventory reduction is promoted by high - maintenance [50][51]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market**: PP prices rose. Affected by macro - expectations in the context of weak supply and demand, prices are expected to be range - bound and slightly strong [52]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market**: Pig prices were stable with local fluctuations. The market is affected by capacity - reduction policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [54]. Eggs - **Market**: Egg prices declined. Supply is sufficient, but demand is expected to pick up in the peak season. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities after the rebound [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market**: US soybean prices declined, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. The market is affected by factors such as weather, supply - demand, and policies. It is recommended to go long on dips and pay attention to spreads [56][57]. Oils and Fats - **Market**: Palm oil prices declined. Supported by policies and supply - demand fundamentals, but the upward space is limited. It is recommended to take a range - bound view [58][59][60]. Sugar - **Market**: Sugar prices fluctuated. Domestic import pressure may increase, and prices may decline [61]. Cotton - **Market**: Cotton prices fluctuated. Affected by factors such as downstream consumption and import quota expectations, there are potential downward risks [62][64].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports - **Copper**: This week, several major macro - events are approaching. The Fed's interest - rate meeting and US copper tariffs are uncertain. If the tariffs are strictly enforced, they will pressure both SHFE and LME copper. The tight supply of copper raw materials persists, and short - term supply disruptions have increased. However, due to the seasonal weakness in downstream demand and the expected increase in imports, copper prices are expected to be limited in their upward movement and will mainly fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for SHFE copper is 77,500 - 79,800 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is 9,500 - 9,950 dollars/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic black - series commodities have peaked and declined, and the approaching effective date of US new tariffs has cooled market sentiment. Although the domestic aluminum ingot inventory is at a relatively low level, which supports aluminum prices, the off - season in downstream demand and the weakening export demand limit the upward movement of aluminum prices. Overall, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract is 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is 2,550 - 2,660 dollars/ton [3]. - **Lead**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightening. The price of lead - acid batteries has stopped falling and stabilized, and with the approaching peak season, the procurement of downstream battery manufacturers is expected to improve. If the scale of inspections on smelters expands, both the single - side price and the month - to - month spread may strengthen. Currently, prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [4]. - **Zinc**: In the medium - to - long - term, zinc prices are expected to be bearish as the domestic zinc ore supply remains loose, the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly, and inventories are on the rise. In the short - term, the Fed's dovish stance has raised expectations of monetary easing, and there are still structural risks overseas. Prices are greatly affected by capital sentiment, so be cautious about price fluctuations [6]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is at a low level, and demand is also weak, showing a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. Due to the strengthening expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [7]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel ore is expected to decline due to weak demand. Although the price of nickel - iron has stabilized and strengthened, there is still an oversupply pressure. The price of refined nickel is driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. In the context of high stainless - steel inventory, the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse. It is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for SHFE nickel is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton [8][9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The news from the mining end has strengthened the bullish sentiment, but the actual fundamentals have not reversed. The spot market is cautious. Due to the high risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously. The expected trading range for the main contract on the GZEE is 76,500 - 81,100 yuan/ton [12]. - **Alumina**: The over - capacity pattern of alumina is difficult to change. With the decline in the short - term bullish sentiment in the commodity market and the expected alleviation of the shortage of circulating spot goods, it is recommended to short on rallies. The expected trading range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3,050 - 3,500 yuan/ton [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply of stainless steel has tightened, and demand has shown signs of recovery, with an optimized supply - demand structure. However, the fundamental pattern of oversupply has not been substantially improved [17]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. Although there is cost support, the upward pressure on prices is large due to the weakening commodity market atmosphere and the large difference between futures and spot prices [19]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Price**: Last week, copper prices rose first and then fell. LME copper rose 0.02% to 9,796 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78,800 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the three major exchanges increased by 0.4 tons week - on - week. SHFE inventory decreased by 1.1 to 7.3 tons, LME inventory increased by 0.6 to 12.9 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 0.8 to 22.6 tons. The inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone increased by 0.2 tons [1]. - **Spot**: The LME market's Cash/3M was at a discount of 53.7 dollars/ton. The supply of domestic spot goods increased, and on Friday, the spot in Shanghai had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over futures [1]. - **Scrap Copper**: The refined - scrap spread was 840 yuan/ton on Friday. The operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises increased slightly [1]. - **Copper Rod**: The operating rate of domestic refined copper rod enterprises declined [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: SHFE aluminum main contract rose 1.22% (as of Friday's close), and LME aluminum fell 0.27% to 2,631 dollars/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 1.8 to 51.0 tons, and bonded - area inventory decreased by 0.5 to 11.1 tons. Aluminum bar social inventory decreased by 1.1 to 14.6 tons [3]. - **Spot**: On Friday, the spot in East China had a premium of 10 yuan/ton over futures, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 yuan/ton [3]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of domestic major aluminum product enterprises continued to decline [3]. Lead - **Price**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.36% to 16,958 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell 2.5 to 2,030.5 dollars/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 6 tons, and LME lead ingot inventory was 26.93 tons. Domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 6.58 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The operating rate of primary lead production decreased slightly, while that of recycled lead production increased from a low level. The price of lead - acid batteries stopped falling and stabilized, and downstream procurement is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 dollars/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 9.27 tons. SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1.33 tons, and LME zinc ingot inventory was 11.69 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the supply of zinc ingots is expected to increase significantly [6]. Tin - **Supply**: There is an expectation of tin ore supply recovery in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end still faces raw - material supply pressure, and the operating rate is at a low level [7]. - **Demand**: Domestic off - season consumption is poor, and overseas demand is strong due to AI computing power [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased slightly to 10,096 tons as of July 25, 2025 [7]. Nickel - **Nickel Ore**: The price of nickel ore fell. The procurement of smelters decreased, and the price of wet - process nickel ore remained stable [8]. - **Nickel Iron**: The market sentiment improved slightly, and prices stabilized and strengthened. There is still an oversupply pressure [8]. - **Refined Nickel**: The price was driven up by the increase in nickel - iron prices. Spot trading was cold [8]. - **Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory decreased by 1.43% to 24.3 tons. China's inventory increased, and LME's decreased [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC index rose 2.67% on Friday and 16.71% for the week. The LC2509 contract rose 5.01% and 15.09% for the week [12]. - **Spot**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2,000 yuan, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 2.70% [12]. - **Mining**: The price of Australian imported SC6 lithium concentrate increased by 8.86% and 17.81% for the week [12]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index rose 0.12% to 3,410 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged [14]. - **Inventory**: Futures warehouse receipts were 0.69 tons, at a historical low [14]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The main contract closed at 13,030 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [16]. - **Spot**: The price of 304 cold - rolled coils in Foshan and Wuxi markets changed slightly [16]. - **Raw Materials**: The prices of raw materials such as high - nickel iron, 304 scrap steel, and high - carbon ferrochrome remained unchanged [17]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 111.86 tons, with a 2.54% week - on - week decrease [17]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract rose 1.31% to 20,135 yuan/ton (as of Friday's close) [19]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 0.6 to 4.3 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 0.1 tons [19]. - **Production**: The production of cast aluminum alloy was about 14.2 tons, with ADC12 production at about 8.0 tons, a slight increase [19].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, zinc prices are expected to remain bearish as domestic zinc ore supply is still abundant, zinc ingot supply is expected to increase, and inventories are rising. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to show a volatile and slightly stronger trend due to factors such as the dovish atmosphere of the Federal Reserve, high concentration of long positions in the LME zinc market, and strong overall commodity sentiment [11]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Assessment - **Price Review**: The Shanghai Zinc Index closed down 0.57% to 22,868 yuan/ton on Friday, with a total long - only trading position of 234,600 lots. LME Zinc 3S fell 35 to 2,840.5 US dollars/ton, with a total position of 188,300 lots. The average price of SMM 0 zinc ingots was 22,770 yuan/ton, with Shanghai basis at - 20 yuan/ton, Tianjin basis at - 70 yuan/ton, and Guangdong basis at - 90 yuan/ton [11]. - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton. - **Industrial Data**: The domestic TC of zinc concentrate was 3,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 76 US dollars/dry ton. The port inventory of zinc concentrate was 275,000 physical tons, and the factory inventory was 599,000 physical tons. The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively [11]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - The report presents multiple charts related to the US fiscal and debt situation, the Fed's balance sheet, dollar liquidity, manufacturing PMIs of China and the US, and new and unfilled orders in the US manufacturing and non - ferrous metal industries, but no specific analysis conclusions are provided [14][16]. 3.3 Supply Analysis - **Zinc Ore Supply**: In June 2025, domestic zinc ore production was 322,500 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 2.8% and a month - on - month change of - 0.8%. The net import of zinc ore was 330,000 dry tons, with a year - on - year change of 23.0% and a month - on - month change of - 32.9%. The total domestic zinc ore supply was 471,000 metal tons, with a year - on - year change of 8.4% and a month - on - month change of - 13.8% [25][27]. - **Zinc Ingot Supply**: In June 2025, zinc ingot production was 585,100 tons, with a year - on - year change of 7.2% and a month - on - month change of 6.5%. The net import of zinc ingots was 38,200 tons, with a year - on - year change of 1.7% and a month - on - month change of 50.9%. The total domestic zinc ingot supply was 623,300 tons, with a year - on - year change of 6.8% and a month - on - month change of 8.5% [33][35]. 3.4 Demand Analysis - The weekly operating rates of galvanized structural parts, die - cast zinc alloys, and zinc oxide were 59.42%, 51.03%, and 55.99% respectively. In June 2025, the apparent demand for domestic zinc ingots was 607,800 tons, with a year - on - year change of 0.9% and a month - on - month change of 5.0% [39][41]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory - **Domestic Zinc Ingot**: In June 2025, the supply - demand gap of domestic zinc ingots was a surplus of 15,400 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to June was a surplus of 61,000 tons [52]. - **Overseas Refined Zinc**: In April 2025, the supply - demand gap of overseas refined zinc was a surplus of 67,600 tons, and the cumulative supply - demand gap from January to April was a surplus of 127,700 tons [55]. 3.6 Price Outlook - **Domestic Structure**: SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 13,300 tons, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly to 92,700 tons. The basis in Shanghai was - 20 yuan/ton, and the spread between consecutive contracts and the first - month contract was - 40 yuan/ton [60]. - **Overseas Structure**: LME zinc ingot inventory was 116,900 tons, and LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 55,900 tons. The basis of the cash - 3S contract was - 0.71 US dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 spread was - 2.5 US dollars/ton [63]. - **Cross - Market Structure**: The ex - exchange Shanghai - London price ratio was 1.126, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots was - 1,586.89 yuan/ton [66]. - **Position Analysis**: The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc was relatively high, the net long position of investment funds in LME Zinc increased, and the net short position of commercial enterprises also increased, showing a bullish trend from the position perspective [69].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **Copper**: Last night, Shanghai copper opened lower and continued to decline, with decreasing positions and strong willingness among long - position holders to close out. Today, it maintained a weak trend, with the main contract price oscillating above 79,200 yuan. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, and the sharp drop in gold may affect short - term copper prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic copper social inventory on Thursday was 121,800 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, copper prices have fallen after a rally, with strong resistance at $10,000 for LME copper and 80,000 yuan for Shanghai copper [5]. - **Aluminum**: Today, Shanghai aluminum oscillated, with decreasing positions. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but aluminum was relatively resistant. Favorable domestic macro - conditions supported aluminum prices. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 494,000 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to Monday. In the short term, there are macro - level positives and industrial - level negatives; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [6]. - **Nickel**: Today, Shanghai nickel oscillated strongly, with the main contract price breaking through the 124,000 - yuan mark. After the Asian session yesterday, the non - ferrous and precious metals sectors generally declined, but nickel was relatively resistant. On the industrial level, the trading atmosphere in the downstream stainless - steel market improved, which was favorable for nickel prices in the short term. Technically, nickel prices increased in volume and broke through the high point in early July, showing strong upward momentum; attention should be paid to the support of the 5 - day moving average [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On July 25, SMM data showed that the average spot premium in Shandong was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton. Currently in the off - season, weak demand and rising copper prices have further dampened downstream purchasing enthusiasm, with market transactions mainly for rigid demand. Shandong smelters have low inventories, and holders are reluctant to significantly lower premiums. This week, the region continues to face a situation of weak supply and demand, with low market trading activity [9]. - **Aluminum**: On July 25, SMM reported that Rio Tinto achieved a record bauxite production in Q2. The company produced 15,644,000 tons of bauxite in Q2, a 6% increase from Q1, and expects full - year production to be at the upper end of the guidance range. Recycled aluminum production also increased to 74,000 tons, an 11% increase from Q1. However, bauxite production decreased by 6% from Q1, partly due to equipment shutdown and maintenance at the Yarwun refinery in Queensland, Australia. On July 24, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 494,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons from the 17th and 14,000 tons from the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: On July 25, Mysteel reported that the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2508 contract. The mainstream premium for Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,000 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,630 yuan/ton; for Russian nickel, it was +550 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,180 yuan/ton; for Norwegian nickel, it was +3,600 yuan/ton, with a price of 127,230 yuan/ton; and for nickel beans, it was - 900 yuan/ton, with a price of 122,730 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: Charts include copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory (social + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, Shanghai copper month - spread, overseas copper exchange inventory, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: Charts include aluminum basis, aluminum month - spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, alumina trend, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory (LME + COMEX), and alumina inventory [25][31][33]. - **Nickel**: Charts include nickel basis, nickel month - spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, and nickel ore port inventory [38][44][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus is shifting towards medium - quality entities within industries such as steel, coal, real estate, local state - owned construction enterprises, and non - bank finance. In Q3, it is advisable to explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. For institutions with high risk tolerance, there are opportunities to compress the liquidity premium of some high - quality private enterprises. For industries with low overall risks like public utilities, regular allocation is sufficient [5]. - For ultra - long credit bonds, it is time to gradually take profits, shorten the duration for defense, and switch to more liquid varieties, waiting for the next opportunity to attack [6]. - In Q3, different industries present various investment opportunities and risks. For example, the construction industry may see marginal improvement in prosperity but still face pressure; the steel industry has strong expectations of marginal improvement in fundamentals; the coal industry needs to select high - quality entities for exploration; the real estate industry has high - valued state - owned enterprises with certain investment potential; the non - ferrous metal industry has a differentiated prosperity; and the cement industry has limited opportunities [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Q3 Ultra - long Credit Bond Strategy: Gradually Take Profits and Wait for Subsequent Attack Opportunities 3.1.1 Primary Issuance - In Q2, the supply of ultra - long credit bonds increased month - on - month, with large industrial central state - owned enterprises remaining the main financing force. The total issuance in H1 was 539.8 billion yuan, and Q2 increased by 63% month - on - month, accounting for 9.27% of all credit bonds, but still lower than Q3 last year. The issuers were mainly industrial, accounting for about 72%, and large central state - owned enterprises such as State Grid had large issuance volumes [16]. - Since early July, the bond market has adjusted, and the supply of ultra - long credit bonds may be frustrated in the short term, and its subsequent recovery remains to be observed [18]. 3.1.2 Yield Analysis - To obtain significant excess returns from extending the credit duration, either interest rate decline or spread compression must occur, and the amplitude should be large enough [31]. - The trigger for the sharp decline of ultra - long credit bonds in recent years is mostly the reversal of institutional behavior. Currently, although it is predicted that there will be a double - bull market for stocks and bonds in the second half of the year, the short - term risk cannot be ignored due to the impact of the "stock - bond seesaw" on market sentiment [34]. - In terms of capital gains, the odds of ultra - long credit bonds are decreasing; the one - two - level arbitrage space is difficult to find; and the coupon protection ability is weak, making it difficult to increase the winning rate. Therefore, it is recommended to gradually take profits and switch to more liquid varieties such as 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [37]. 3.1.3 Strategy - For most institutions, it is time to gradually take profits from ultra - long credit bonds. The reasons include the difficulty in continuing the excess returns in the future, the fragility of the market's optimistic sentiment, the lack of obvious coupon advantages and protection ability, and the relatively small advantage compared with 5Y bank secondary perpetual bonds [46][51]. 3.2 Q3 Industrial Bond Strategy: Explore Industry Allocation Opportunities under "Anti - involution" 3.2.1 Construction - In 2025, the construction industry has been under pressure since the beginning of the year, and the downward trend in prosperity continued into Q2. In Q3, although factors such as accelerated capital arrival, the "anti - involution" initiative, and overseas growth are expected to bring marginal improvement in prosperity, the industry will still be under pressure overall, and industry concentration may further increase, benefiting leading central state - owned enterprises [48][52]. - In terms of bond valuation, the industry's valuation declined steadily in the second quarter. The spread of central state - owned enterprises narrowed, and some local state - owned enterprises had a large decline in valuation, but the valuation of some enterprises was still unstable [55]. - The strategy is to mainly explore subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises and selectively allocate local state - owned enterprises. For institutions with low risk tolerance, continue to explore high - valued subsidiaries of central state - owned enterprises or leading local state - owned enterprises; for institutions that can accept a certain degree of credit quality downgrade, local state - owned enterprises provide greater return space, but it is not recommended to over - explore them [56]. 3.2.2 Steel - In Q2, steel prices fluctuated downward, but rose rapidly in early July under the support of cost and the expectation of "anti - involution" policies [60]. - In terms of fundamentals, supply is cautiously released, demand recovery in Q2 was less than expected, and total inventory is expected to further decline. In the short term, steel prices and steel enterprise profits are expected to be strong, but there is a risk of a callback [61][65][67]. - Medium - quality entities have strong motivation to compress spreads, and it is expected that the spreads of medium - grade mainstream entities such as HBIS and Shandong Steel will continue to compress. They can be appropriately allocated [71]. 3.2.3 Coal - In the second quarter, the price of thermal coal fluctuated downward and then rebounded at the end of the quarter, while the price of coking coal rose briefly in April and then fell, also rebounding at the end of June [74]. - In terms of fundamentals, the supply structure is relatively loose, and production inspections may lead to subsequent tightening. The demand for thermal coal is seasonally improving, while the probability of "oversupply" of coking coal is relatively large. Port inventories are continuously being depleted [76][80]. - It is expected that the coal price rebound may continue, with thermal coal being stronger than coking coal. In Q3, exploration still needs to select high - quality entities, and Jinmei Group is still the target of exploration by mainstream institutions [7][80]. 3.2.4 Real Estate - In Q3, the downward pressure on the real estate industry may continue to increase. The real estate sector is currently the highest - valued sector among state - owned enterprises, with a certain thickness of coupon and potential for exploration. Although the market is concerned about the emotional fluctuations brought about by Vanke's support willingness, the fluctuations are relatively controllable under the attraction of absolute returns, and it has cost - effectiveness [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals - In the non - ferrous metals industry, for gold, the market is mainly speculating on the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, and the long - term upward trend of the central price remains unchanged; for copper, the mining end is generally tight but with marginal increments, and the demand side is weak; for aluminum, the inventory has been depleted more than expected, and the demand - side risk is small, and the profit space of electrolytic aluminum plants is expected to continue [7]. - In terms of strategy, the valuations of high - quality but over - valued entities such as Nanshan Group, Hongqiao New Materials, and Luoyang Aluminum Industry are expected to continue to decline, while there are few opportunities for other entities [7]. 3.2.6 Cement - In Q2, cement prices almost declined unilaterally, and manufacturers faced the risk of losses. Attention should be paid to the implementation of over - production governance under "anti - involution." Currently, except for Hongshi, the spreads of the cement sector are basically compressed within 30bp, and it is difficult to obtain excess returns, so the overall opportunities in the cement sector are limited [7]. 3.2.7 Strategy - In Q3, explore large - scale medium - quality entities in each industry. The current spread of entities with a spread of 40 - 50bp is about 20bp different from that of leading entities, and it is expected that the spread will be compressed in Q3 [5]. 3.3 Q2 Industrial Bond Market Review: Convergent Trends and Deviation from Fundamentals 3.3.1 Issuance and Financing Situation - In Q2, industrial bonds had a large net inflow of 732.1 billion yuan, and public utilities led in net financing [14]. 3.3.2 Yield and Spread Trends - After the yield was repaired in Q2, it fluctuated at a low level. The trading logic was that the loose capital tone ran through the entire quarter, and the performance of different industries in the industrial bond market was not significantly differentiated, and the spread trend deviated from fundamentals [9]. 3.3.3 Liquidity - Since Q2, the liquidity of credit bonds has been continuously improving, and the trading heat of ultra - long credit bonds reached its peak in mid - June [14]. 3.3.4 Credit Risk - In Q2, there were 2 entities with substantial bond defaults and 4 domestic entities with rating/ outlook downgrades, but the overall credit risk was controllable [9].

Group 1: Q3 Super Long Credit Bond Strategy - The report suggests gradually taking profits on super long credit bonds and switching to shorter-term, more liquid varieties while waiting for the next investment opportunity [6][10][26] - In Q2, the issuance of super long credit bonds increased significantly, with a total of 539.8 billion yuan, marking a 63% increase from the previous quarter [10][12] - The report indicates that the current market conditions do not support further exploration of super long credit bonds due to declining odds of capital gains and limited arbitrage opportunities [26][27] Group 2: Q3 Industry Bond Strategy - The strategy focuses on identifying investment opportunities under the "anti-involution" initiative across various industries [6][10] - In the construction sector, while there is a marginal improvement expected due to funding acceleration and the "anti-involution" initiative, the overall industry remains under pressure [6][10] - The steel industry shows strong expectations for marginal improvement, with opportunities for continued compression of spreads among mid-tier players like Hebei Steel and Shandong Steel [6][10] - The coal sector anticipates a rebound in prices, with a focus on major players like Jin Energy, while cash flow improvements may exceed expectations [6][10] - The real estate sector faces increasing downward pressure, but state-owned enterprises still present attractive absolute returns [6][10] - In the non-ferrous metals sector, the report highlights a divergence in market conditions, with opportunities for compression in spreads among quality private enterprises [6][10] - The cement industry is under significant pressure, with risks of losses and limited opportunities for excess returns [6][10] - The overall strategy recommends focusing on medium-quality entities across industries, particularly in steel, coal, real estate, and construction, while keeping an eye on the "anti-involution" initiative and the commencement of the Yajiang Hydropower Station [6][10]

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance on July 24, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the 3600-point mark during the session [1] - By the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.65% to 3605.73 points, the Sci-Tech Innovation 50 Index increased by 1.17% to 1032.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index gained 1.21% to 11193.06 points, and the ChiNext Index climbed 1.5% to 2345.37 points [3] Trading Activity - A total of 4391 stocks rose while 911 stocks fell, with 113 stocks remaining flat across the two exchanges and the Beijing Stock Exchange [4] - The total trading volume for the two exchanges was 184.47 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous trading day [4] Sector Performance - The steel sector showed strong performance, with stocks like Baogang Co. and Hainan Mining hitting the daily limit, while other steel stocks rose over 3% [5] - The retail sector also performed well, with companies like China Duty Free and Bubugao reaching the daily limit, and several others increasing by over 3% [5] - The non-ferrous metals sector was notable, with stocks such as Longmag Technology and Tibet Mining hitting the daily limit or rising over 10% [5] - Conversely, banking stocks underperformed, with several banks declining over 2% [5] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Financial analysts suggest that the market is currently experiencing structural rotation opportunities, with a focus on old infrastructure and technology sectors [8] - The market is showing resilience to negative news and responding positively to favorable news, indicating a potential for a sustained upward trend [8] - There is a bullish sentiment in the market, although some analysts caution about the possibility of short-term adjustments following recent gains [8]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究（有⾊每⽇报告） 2025-07-24 反内卷情绪炒作缓解，市场关注点有望重回 消费 有⾊与新材料团队 研究员： 郑非凡 从业资格号：F03088415 投资咨询号：Z0016667 白帅 从业资格号：F03093201 投资咨询号：Z0020543 杨飞 从业资格号：F03108013 投资咨询号：Z0021455 王雨欣 从业资格号：F03108000 投资咨询号：Z0021453 王美丹 从业资格号：F03141853 投资咨询号：Z0022534 桂伶 从业资格号：F03114737 投资咨询号：Z0022425 张远 从业资格号：F03147334 投资咨询号：Z0022750 铜观点：有⾊稳增⻓⽅案即将出台，铜价获得⽀撑。 氧化铝观点：盘⾯情绪反复，氧化铝⾼位调整。 铝观点：情绪提振趋缓，铝价有所回落。 铝合⾦观点：成本⽀撑较强，盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锌观点：宏观情绪仍存，锌价⾼位震荡。 铅观点：供需偏宽松，铅价震荡运⾏。 镍观点：反内卷交易趋缓，短期镍价宽幅震荡运⾏。 不锈钢观点：镍铁价格⼩幅回升，不锈钢盘⾯震荡运⾏。 锡观点：LME库存继续 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro - finance**: Index futures are rated as a slow - bull market with an upward - trending shock; treasury bonds are recommended to focus on taking profits, with a strengthening shock [6]. - **Black building materials**: Rebar is recommended for temporary observation; iron ore is expected to be strong with shocks; coking coal and coke are recommended for cautious trial - buying [1][8][9]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is recommended for range trading or observation; aluminum is recommended to be mainly observed; nickel is recommended for observation or short - selling at high prices; tin is recommended for range trading; gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][11][20]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, and rubber are expected to be strong with shocks; urea and methanol are expected to move with shocks; polyolefins are expected to have wide - range shocks; soda ash is recommended for离场观望 [1][23][36]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to be strong with shocks; apples and jujubes are expected to move with shocks [1][38][39]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices; eggs are recommended to be short - sold at high prices in the short - term and long - bought at low prices in the fourth quarter; corn is expected to have high - level shocks; soybean meal and oils are expected to be strong with shocks [1][41][48]. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides investment ratings and market outlooks for various futures products in different industries. It analyzes market trends based on factors such as macro - economic policies, supply - demand relationships, and international trade situations. For example, in the macro - finance sector, index futures are influenced by trade news and show a slow - bull trend, while treasury bonds face challenges from capital diversion and risk - preference changes. In the black building materials sector, prices are affected by factors like production inspections, supply - demand balances, and policy expectations. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - **Index futures**: The slow - bull trend is gradually clear, and the index center moves up due to trade news boosting market risk preference [6]. - **Treasury bonds**: Although the odds space of long - term and ultra - long - term yields has opened, the bond market is under pressure from capital diversion and cautious institutional behavior. It is recommended to focus on taking profits [6]. Black building materials - **Rebar**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced, and attention should be paid to policy signals and crude steel production restrictions [8]. - **Iron ore**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The supply is stable, the demand is strong, and the market is influenced by trade policies and policy expectations [9]. - **Coking coal and coke**: Coking coal shows a supply - demand boom, and the price is strongly supported in the short - term. Coke has obvious supply - demand gaming characteristics, and the second - round price increase may be affected by factors such as steel mill profits [9][10]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be in a high - level shock. It is affected by factors such as import tariffs, inventory changes, and economic recovery expectations [11]. - **Aluminum**: The short - term upward space of the price is limited. Attention should be paid to inventory accumulation. Alumina is recommended for observation, and electrolytic aluminum and cast aluminum alloy are recommended for observation [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The long - term supply is excessive, and the price is expected to move with shocks. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices [18]. - **Tin**: The supply gap is improving, and the price is expected to be supported. It is recommended for range trading [19][20]. - **Silver and gold**: The prices are expected to move with shocks. They are affected by factors such as economic data, geopolitical situations, and tariff policies [20][22]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: The supply - demand is still weak, but it is driven by policy expectations and is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 5100 [24][25]. - **Caustic soda**: The supply is high, and the demand has rigid support but slow growth. The near - month contract is under pressure, and the 10 - contract can be considered for low - buying on dips [26][27]. - **Styrene**: The fundamentals have limited benefits, and it is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the support at 7300 [28]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to be strong with shocks. Attention should be paid to the pressure at 15000. The raw material is firm, and the inventory shows a slight destocking trend [30]. - **Urea**: The supply decreases slightly, the demand has certain support, and the price is expected to move with shocks in the range of 1680 - 1850 [31]. - **Methanol**: The supply and demand tend to be stable, and the price is expected to move with shocks [33]. - **Polyolefins**: The supply pressure is large, the demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to have a weak shock. Attention should be paid to the intervals of 7200 - 7500 for L2509 and 6900 - 7200 for PP2509 [34][35]. - **Soda ash**: It is recommended for离场观望. The supply is high, the demand is under pressure, and the short - term is driven by macro factors [37]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: The price is expected to be strong with shocks. The global cotton supply and demand are adjusted, and the spot market is tight [38]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to maintain a high - level range shock due to low inventory [39]. - **Jujubes**: The spot price is expected to be stable in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the new - season situation in the production area [39]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: The supply - demand pressure still exists, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to short - sell at high prices after the rebound [41][42]. - **Eggs**: In the short - term, it is recommended to short - sell at high prices, and in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to long - buy at low prices. Attention should be paid to factors such as supply and demand changes and cold - storage egg出库 [44]. - **Corn**: The short - term supply - demand game is intense, and the price is expected to have a high - level shock. It is recommended to be cautious when going long unilaterally and pay attention to the 9 - 1 reverse spread opportunity [45][46]. - **Soybean meal**: In the short - term, it is recommended to go long at low prices for M2509. In the long - term, pay attention to the weather and go long at low prices for M2511 and M2601 [46][48]. - **Oils**: In the short - term, pay attention to the support levels of 8000, 8900, and 9400 for soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil 09 contracts, and continue the idea of buying on dips [48][53].