推动人民币升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温，投资者要逐步适应在一个人民币持续升值的 环境下去做资产配置。从过去20年间7轮人民币升值周期来看，汇率并不是主导行业配置的决定性因 素。然而，部分行业在持续升值预期形成的初期确实会有更好表现，市场可能会复制这样的肌肉记忆， 同时从成本收入分析来看，约19%的行业会因为升值带来利润率提升，这些行业也会逐步被投资者重视 起来。此外，为抑制过快单边升值趋势而做出的政策应对，反而是影响行业配置的更重要因素。行业配 置上，在人民币持续升值的背景下，可以关注短期肌肉记忆驱动、利润率变化驱动以及政策变化驱动三 条线索，我们在本期聚焦详细梳理了潜在受益行业。 推动人民币持续升值的因素逐渐增多，市场关注度也开始升温 我们认为投资者要逐步开始适应在一个人民币持续升值的环境下去做资产配置。今年前11个月中国的累 计贸易顺差达到1.076万亿美元，同比增长21.7%，创历史新高。更重要的是出口企业的结汇意愿开始不 断上升，今年10月顺差转化为顺收的比例已经超过100%，这是与过去几年最大的差异。2022年以来， 我们估算出口商积累的待结汇规模为1万亿美元左右，一旦人民币升值预期形成 ...

Core Conclusions - The overall valuation of A-shares has contracted this week, with the retail trade sector leading the gains. The Ministry of Commerce recently held a meeting to promote the "Three New" (new consumption formats, new models, new scenarios) pilot work, providing policy support for industry recovery. The concept of "reward economy" has emerged, further boosting sentiment in the consumption sector. Currently, the overall PB (LF) of the retail trade sector is at the historical 37.0 percentile, indicating significant room for valuation improvement [1][8]. Valuation Overview - This week, the overall PE (TTM) of A-shares decreased from 21.74 times last week to 21.73 times this week, while the PB (LF) remained stable at 1.77 times [10]. - The main board's PE (TTM) increased from 17.46 times last week to 17.54 times this week, and the PB (LF) rose from 1.48 times to 1.49 times [17]. - The ChiNext's PE (TTM) fell from 72.27 times to 71.32 times, and the PB (LF) decreased from 4.27 times to 4.21 times [19]. - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's PE (TTM) dropped from 210.87 times to 205.59 times, and the PB (LF) fell from 5.17 times to 5.04 times [25]. Relative Valuation Analysis - The relative PE (TTM) of computing power infrastructure, excluding operators/resource categories, decreased from 4.47 times last week to 4.28 times this week, while the relative PB (LF) fell from 4.66 times to 4.46 times [28]. - In terms of static PE (TTM), major industries such as discretionary consumption, consumer staples, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption and consumer staples exceeding the historical 90th percentile [32]. - From the perspective of PB (LF), industries like resources, TMT, cyclical, and midstream manufacturing have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, while discretionary consumption, midstream materials, financial services, services, and consumer staples are below the historical median [34]. Dynamic Valuation Insights - Analyzing the full dynamic PE, industries such as discretionary consumption, midstream manufacturing, cyclical, and midstream materials have absolute and relative valuations above the historical median, with discretionary consumption exceeding the historical 90th percentile [41]. - The current comparison of odds (PB historical percentiles) and win rates (ROE historical percentiles) indicates that industries like agriculture, public utilities, and oil and petrochemicals exhibit characteristics of low valuation and high profitability [59]. - The comparison of odds (full dynamic PE) and win rates (25-26 consensus expected net profit compound growth rate) shows that industries such as building materials, power equipment, media, and defense industry possess both low valuations and high performance growth [62]. ERP and Yield Spread - The non-financial ERP of A-shares increased from 0.87% last week to 0.89% this week, while the equity-debt yield spread improved from -0.12% to -0.05% [63]. - The full dynamic ERP of key non-financial companies in A-shares rose from 2.77% to 2.80% this week [70].

Group 1: Northbound Capital Flow - Northbound capital estimated net outflow of 6.4 billion CNY in the last week, compared to a net outflow of 0.5 billion CNY the previous week[8] - Flexible foreign capital estimated net inflow of 0.3 billion CNY last week, down from 2.6 billion CNY the week before[8] - Top active stocks in Northbound trading included Zhongji Xuchuang (15.7 billion CNY), Ningde Times (15.4 billion CNY), and Xinyi Technology (14.7 billion CNY)[8] Group 2: Hong Kong Market - Total capital inflow into the Hong Kong market reached 5.5 billion HKD last week, with stable foreign capital outflow of 10.5 billion HKD and flexible foreign capital inflow of 9.7 billion HKD[12] - Local funds from Hong Kong or mainland China contributed an inflow of 8.7 billion HKD[12] - Significant foreign capital inflows were observed in sectors such as semiconductors, non-ferrous metals, and oil and petrochemicals[14] Group 3: Asia-Pacific Market Trends - Foreign capital net inflow into the Japanese stock market was 202.1 billion JPY last week, up from 48.9 billion JPY the previous week, with a cumulative net inflow of 10 trillion JPY in 2023[20] - In contrast, foreign institutional investors experienced a net outflow of 4.3 billion USD from the Indian stock market in November, following a net inflow of 16.6 billion USD the previous month[20] Group 4: US and European Markets - In October, global mutual fund capital saw a net inflow of 3.8 billion USD into the US equity market, down from 25.5 billion USD the previous month, with a cumulative net inflow of 682.3 billion USD since 2020[22] - European markets faced net outflows, with the UK, Germany, and France seeing net inflows of -3.2 billion USD, 0.14 billion USD, and 1.16 billion USD respectively in October[22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the following companies: China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina), China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), Zhongman Petroleum and Natural Gas, and New Natural Gas [2][3]. Core Views - The report highlights concerns over oil price weakness due to supply surplus fears, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and sanctions affecting Venezuela [7][10]. - It suggests that the oil price has a floor, with stable earnings expected for oil companies, particularly those with low production costs and high dividends [12]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on industry leaders with strong performance stability and high dividends, particularly PetroChina and Sinopec [12]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - Oil prices have shown weakness amid concerns of oversupply and geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Venezuela and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [7][10]. - The Brent crude oil futures price settled at $60.47 per barrel, down 1.06% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $56.52 per barrel, down 1.60% [10][36]. 2. Market Performance - As of December 19, the CITIC Petroleum and Chemical sector rose by 1.9%, outperforming the CSI 300 index, which fell by 0.3% [14][17]. - The report notes that the other petrochemical sub-sector had the highest weekly increase of 5.1% [17]. 3. Company Performance - The report lists the top performers in the petroleum and petrochemical sector, with Shengtong Energy leading at a 61.06% increase [18]. - Conversely, Heshun Petroleum experienced the largest decline at 9.70% [18]. 4. Industry Dynamics - The report discusses the stable growth in natural gas production, with November output reaching 21.9 billion cubic meters, a 5.7% year-on-year increase [21]. - It also notes that OPEC's total oil production remained stable at 2,848 million barrels per day in November [56]. 5. Oil and Gas Price Tracking - The report provides detailed tracking of oil and gas prices, indicating a decline in both Brent and WTI crude oil prices compared to the previous week [36][45]. - Natural gas prices also showed a decrease, with NYMEX natural gas futures closing at $4.03 per million British thermal units, down 1.83% week-on-week [45].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the positive performance of the petrochemical sector, particularly the rise of the Petrochemical ETF and the successful import of raw materials for the Tianjin Sinopec Nankou Ethylene Project, marking a significant step in the project’s operational phase [1][2][3] - The Petrochemical ETF has reached a new high in scale, amounting to 206 million yuan, with notable gains in stocks such as Cangge Mining, Hangyang Co., and Hengyi Petrochemical [1] - The industry is experiencing a clear differentiation, with the basic chemical sector benefiting from increased demand for electronic chemical materials driven by the robotics industry and AI computing power, while the oil and petrochemical sector faces pressure due to declining oil prices [1] Group 2 - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index, which the Petrochemical ETF closely tracks, shows that the top three sectors are refining and trading (27.33%), chemical products (22.04%), and agricultural chemical products (21.98%) [2] - The "anti-involution" trend is expected to catalyze a recovery in the cycle, leading to sustained improvement in industry prosperity [2] - Looking ahead to 2025, there is widespread attention on resource products such as potash, lithium, and phosphate rock, which are expected to maintain favorable price conditions [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a mixed performance on December 18, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3876.37 points, up 0.16%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell to 13053.97 points, down 1.29% [1][4] - Among the 30 sectors tracked, 14 saw gains, with coal, banking, and oil & petrochemicals leading the increases, while sectors like electric equipment, new energy, communication, and electronics faced significant declines [1][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market reached 16,768 billion, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][4] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, all three major U.S. stock indices closed higher, with the Dow Jones rising 0.14%, the S&P 500 up 0.79%, and the Nasdaq increasing by 1.38% [2][4] - Notable performers included Amazon, which rose over 2%, and Nvidia, which gained nearly 2%, leading the Dow [2][4] - Chinese concept stocks mostly saw gains, with Xpeng Motors increasing by nearly 3% [2][4] Industry Insights - The National Development and Reform Commission highlighted increased downward pressure on investments since 2025, emphasizing the need for targeted measures to enhance effective investment, particularly in emerging industries [10] - On the same day, 2,845 stocks in the A-share market rose, while 2,416 fell, indicating a broad market activity with 173 stocks rising over 5% and 83 declining over 5% [10] News Highlights - The launch of the Hainan Free Trade Port was officially initiated, marking a significant step in China's reform and opening-up strategy [11] - The Ministry of Commerce expressed strong opposition to the European Commission's investigations into several Chinese companies, emphasizing the need for a fair business environment [12] - For the first time in 16 years, China will implement export licensing for steel products starting January 1, 2026, to enhance monitoring and quality control [13] - A significant discovery of Asia's largest underwater gold mine was reported in Yantai, Shandong, with proven gold reserves exceeding 3,900 tons [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On December 18, 2025, half of the convertible bond industries rose, and the valuation compressed month - on - month. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.06% month - on - month, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.16%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 1.29%, the ChiNext Index fell 2.17%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.23%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22%. The market style favored large - cap value stocks. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up [1]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.37 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The valuation compressed, with the 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate at 32.29%, down 1.16 pct from the previous day [2]. - In the A - share market, the top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), communication (-1.58%), and electronics (-1.51%); the top three industries with the largest increases were banks (+1.97%), coal (+1.89%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.25%). In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose, with the top three industries with the largest increases being medicine and biology (+1.31%), national defense and military industry (+1.26%), and building materials (+1.11%); the top three industries with the largest declines were non - bank finance (-2.09%), steel (-1.81%), and communication (-1.70%) [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 483.43, up 0.06% day - on - day, 0.07% in the past week, down 1.49% in the past month, and up 16.61% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index closed at 234.78, up 0.28% day - on - day, down 0.11% in the past week, down 1.09% in the past month, and up 20.73% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3876.37, up 0.16% day - on - day, down 0.62% in the past week, down 2.41% in the past month, and up 15.65% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13053.97, down 1.29% day - on - day, down 1.97% in the past week, down 1.12% in the past month, and up 25.34% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. - The ChiNext Index closed at 3107.06, down 2.17% day - on - day, down 3.18% in the past week, up 0.06% in the past month, and up 45.08% since the beginning of 2025 [7]. II. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 63.906 billion yuan, up 3.43% month - on - month; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 1.676801 trillion yuan, down 8.59% month - on - month. The net outflow of the main funds from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 29.167 billion yuan, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose 0.16 bp to 1.84% [1][9]. III. Convertible Bond Price and Valuation - The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 132.37 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The closing price of equity - biased convertible bonds was 195.15 yuan, down 0.62%; the closing price of bond - biased convertible bonds was 119.36 yuan, up 0.35%; the closing price of balanced convertible bonds was 129.03 yuan, with no change [2]. - The proportion of high - price bonds above 130 yuan was 53.89%, up 1.55 pct from the previous day. The proportion of bonds in the 120 - 130 (including 130) range decreased by 1.55 pct to 32.38%. The price median was 130.90 yuan, up 0.40% from the previous day [2]. - The 100 - yuan par - value fitted conversion premium rate was 32.29%, down 1.16 pct from the previous day; the overall weighted par value was 98.74 yuan, up 0.28% from the previous day. The premium rate of equity - biased convertible bonds was 15.62%, up 0.67 pct; the premium rate of bond - biased convertible bonds was 85.17%, up 0.35 pct; the premium rate of balanced convertible bonds was 26.46%, down 0.87 pct [2]. IV. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, 18 industries declined. The top three industries with the largest declines were power equipment (-2.22%), communication (-1.58%), and electronics (-1.51%); the top three industries with the largest increases were banks (+1.97%), coal (+1.89%), and petroleum and petrochemicals (+1.25%) [3]. - In the convertible bond market, 16 industries rose. The top three industries with the largest increases were medicine and biology (+1.31%), national defense and military industry (+1.26%), and building materials (+1.11%); the top three industries with the largest declines were non - bank finance (-2.09%), steel (-1.81%), and communication (-1.70%) [3]. - In terms of closing prices, large - cycle industries rose 0.02%, manufacturing industries fell 0.10%, technology industries rose 0.03%, large - consumption industries rose 0.18%, and large - finance industries fell 0.92% [3]. - In terms of conversion premium rates, large - cycle industries decreased by 0.44 pct, manufacturing industries increased by 0.046 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.81 pct, large - consumption industries decreased by 0.78 pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 0.71 pct [3]. - In terms of conversion values, large - cycle industries rose 0.39%, manufacturing industries fell 0.13%, technology industries rose 0.33%, large - consumption industries rose 0.52%, and large - finance industries fell 0.40% [3]. - In terms of pure - bond premium rates, large - cycle industries increased by 0.022 pct, manufacturing industries decreased by 0.08 pct, technology industries decreased by 0.018 pct, large - consumption industries increased by 0.22 pct, and large - finance industries decreased by 1.1 pct [4]. V. Industry Rotation - The banking, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries led the rise. The daily increase rates of the banking, coal, and petroleum and petrochemical industries in the stock market were 1.97%, 1.89%, and 1.25% respectively; the daily increase rates in the convertible bond market were 0.33%, 0.16%, and 0.04% respectively [59].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：国际金融报 12月18日，A股缩量分化，日成交额跌破1.7万亿元。价值股护盘，科技股回吐，沪市跑赢深市。 受访人士称，在方向明朗前，资金倾向避险，涌入高股息、价格稳的资源股；科技板块领跌并非产业逻 辑生变，而是交易拥挤后的正常修正，叠加美股AI（人工智能）链情绪的扰动。后续A股或维持震荡向 上，高低切换延续。 单日成交额跌破1.7万亿元 指数低开后一度冲高，午后回落。截至收盘，沪指收涨0.16%报3876.37点，创业板指收跌2.17%报 3107.06元/股，深证成指收跌1.29%。科创50、沪深300、北证50均收跌，上证50微涨。 成交缩量1575亿元，日成交额降至1.68万亿元。截至12月17日，沪深京两融余额为2.5万亿元。 盘面上，价值股和周期股护盘，跨境支付、银行、煤炭、石油天然气飘红，但英伟达概念、PCB、苹果 概念、电源设备、电子元件、通信设备领跌。 市场分化明显，价值股走强，银行、煤炭、石油石化等板块领涨，国防军工、轻工制造、纺织服饰、传 媒、交通运输等板块也表现不错。北摩高科、天箭科技、奥普光电涨停；德艺文创 ...

- The report discusses the market performance of various indices, highlighting that the SSE 50 Index performed well with a 0.23% increase, while the CSI 300 Index fell by 0.59%[6] - The report also notes that the SSE Composite Index performed well among sector indices, with a 0.16% increase, while the SZSE Composite Index fell by 0.70%[6] - The report provides details on the performance of industry indices, noting that the coal, banking, and petrochemical industries performed well with returns of 2.03%, 2.00%, and 1.31% respectively[7] - The report highlights the performance of various thematic concepts, with SPD, parachute, and PVC flooring concepts performing well with returns of 6.76%, 3.81%, and 3.51% respectively[10] - The report provides data on market sentiment, noting that 71 stocks hit the daily limit up and 8 stocks hit the daily limit down at the close of trading on December 18, 2025[14] - The report includes information on market capital flows, noting that the margin trading balance was 2.5 trillion yuan as of December 17, 2025, with a financing balance of 2.4859 trillion yuan and a securities lending balance of 170 billion yuan[20] - The report discusses the premium and discount rates of ETFs, noting that the cash flow ETF Yongying had the highest premium of 0.90%, while the materials ETF had the highest discount of 0.84% on December 17, 2025[24] - The report provides data on block trading, noting that the average daily transaction amount of block trades over the past six months was 2.1 billion yuan, with a discount rate of 6.64%, and the transaction amount on December 17, 2025, was 2.2 billion yuan with a discount rate of 7.59%[27] - The report includes information on the annualized discount rates of stock index futures, noting that the annualized discount rate of the SSE 50 stock index futures main contract was 29.32% on December 18, 2025, which was at the 1% percentile over the past year[29] - The report provides data on institutional attention and the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that Changan Automobile was the most researched stock by institutions in the past week, with 214 institutions conducting research[31] - The report includes data on the net inflow and outflow of institutional seats on the Dragon and Tiger List, noting that the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of institutional seats on December 18, 2025, were Xue Ren Group, Tongyu Communications, Zhejiang Shibao, Bona Film Group, Deyi Wenhua, Aerospace Huanyu, Meinian Health, Sanyangma, Haixia Innovation, and Huaren Health[37] - SSE 50 Index, performance: +0.23%[6] - CSI 300 Index, performance: -0.59%[6] - SSE Composite Index, performance: +0.16%[6] - SZSE Composite Index, performance: -0.70%[6] - Coal industry, performance: +2.03%[7] - Banking industry, performance: +2.00%[7] - Petrochemical industry, performance: +1.31%[7] - SPD concept, performance: +6.76%[10] - Parachute concept, performance: +3.81%[10] - PVC flooring concept, performance: +3.51%[10] - Number of stocks hitting daily limit up: 71[14] - Number of stocks hitting daily limit down: 8[14] - Margin trading balance: 2.5 trillion yuan[20] - Financing balance: 2.4859 trillion yuan[20] - Securities lending balance: 170 billion yuan[20] - Cash flow ETF Yongying, premium: 0.90%[24] - Materials ETF, discount: 0.84%[24] - Average daily transaction amount of block trades: 2.1 billion yuan[27] - Discount rate of block trades: 6.64%[27] - Transaction amount on December 17, 2025: 2.2 billion yuan[27] - Discount rate on December 17, 2025: 7.59%[27] - Annualized discount rate of SSE 50 stock index futures main contract: 29.32%[29] - Changan Automobile, number of institutions conducting research: 214[31] - Top ten stocks with highest net inflow of institutional seats: Xue Ren Group, Tongyu Communications, Zhejiang Shibao, Bona Film Group, Deyi Wenhua, Aerospace Huanyu, Meinian Health, Sanyangma, Haixia Innovation, Huaren Health[37]

Group 1 - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with technology stocks under pressure while high-dividend sectors like oil, coal, and banking saw gains, supporting the resilience of the indices through a dividend cash flow strategy [1][10] - The 300 Cash Flow Index rose by 0.16% at the close, maintaining above the 5-day moving average [1][10] - Shaanxi Coal Industry rose by 3.74% following the release of a new guideline on clean and efficient coal utilization by multiple government departments, indicating a strategic investment opportunity in high-quality coal companies [1][10][14] Group 2 - "Two barrels of oil," namely China National Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, increased by 2.1% and 1.13% respectively, with other companies like Focus Media, COSCO Shipping, and China Railway High-speed also seeing gains of over 1% [3][14] - The 300 Cash Flow ETF (562080), the largest in terms of scale and liquidity, also saw a slight increase of 0.17%, indicating a trend of capital flowing into high cash flow assets as year-end approaches [16][18] - The 300 Cash Flow Index underwent a quarterly rebalancing on December 15, enhancing its focus on high cash flow, high dividend, and low valuation characteristics, with a more balanced market capitalization distribution and a defensive industry structure [18][20] Group 3 - The market is experiencing a clear shift in style, with funds moving away from high-valuation growth stocks towards stable assets, reflecting a preference for companies with stable cash flows and strong dividend capabilities [10][22] - The 300 Cash Flow ETF is positioned as a tool for investors to access high cash flow quality companies within the CSI 300, which are expected to perform well across economic cycles [22]