聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 4月28日 | 涨跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 4月25日 | 涨跌 | 4月25日 | 涨跌幅 | 4月28日 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -1.01 | -1.5% | POY150/48价格 | 布伦特原油(6月) | 66.87 | 6395 | 6265 | 130 | 2.1% | 65.86 | 美元/桶 | -1.5% | WTI原油(6月) | 63.02 | -0.97 | FDY150/96价格 | 130 | 2.0% | 62.05 | 6580 | 6450 | | | -0.7% | DTY150/48价格 | 85 | CFR日本石脑 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic urea price has been oscillating downward. Agricultural fertilizer preparation has been postponed, and industrial demand has slowed down, leading to reduced flow of urea factory goods and inventory accumulation in most regions. After the factory significantly reduced prices for promotion, the mid - stream traders replenished their stocks, and the spot trading volume increased significantly on Monday. After the spot market showed signs of stabilization, the futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improved trading volume after the spot price increase and the possibility of spot - futures trading opportunities due to the large futures premium over the spot [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Urea Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the urea main contract (09 contract) was 1,781 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,772 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the trading volume was 208,654 lots, an increase of 25,084 lots; the open interest was 205,466 lots, a decrease of 4,743 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 4,999 tons, a decrease of 49 tons; the trading value was 739.284 million yuan, an increase of 92.433 million yuan. The basis in Shandong region was 9 yuan, down 34 yuan; the difference between Fengxi and the futures price was - 81 yuan, down 4 yuan; the difference between Dongguang and the futures price was 9 yuan, down 24 yuan; the spread between UR05 - UR09 was 7 yuan, down 2 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: Among urea factory prices, Henan Xinlianxin was 1,790 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; Shandong Ruixing was 1,750 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; Shanxi Fengxi was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Jiangsu Linggu was 1,830 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. Among trader prices, the price in Shandong region was 1,790 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Shanxi region was 1,700 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [1] - **Supply - side Indicators**: The operating rate was 83.92%, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output was 193,520 tons, unchanged [1] 3.2 Industry News - As of April 23, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.065 million tons, an increase of 158,800 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 17.52%. Provinces with increased enterprise inventory include Anhui, Hainan, etc.; provinces with decreased enterprise inventory include Liaoning and Yunnan [1] - After the factory significantly reduced prices for promotion, the mid - stream traders replenished their stocks, and the spot trading volume increased significantly on Monday. After the spot market showed signs of stabilization, the futures price rebounded. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improved trading volume after the spot price increase and the possibility of spot - futures trading opportunities due to the large futures premium over the spot [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for 2024, primarily due to falling potash prices, but showed significant recovery in Q1 2025 with substantial growth in both revenue and profit [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 3.548 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%, and a net profit of 950 million yuan, down 23.05% [1][2]. - The adjusted net profit attributable to the parent company was 892 million yuan, reflecting a 30.00% decline year-on-year, with basic earnings per share at 1.04 yuan [1][3]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.213 billion yuan, a remarkable increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, up 373.53% year-on-year [1][3]. Potash Production and Pricing - The company produced 1.8154 million tons of potash in 2024, marking a 10.24% increase, with sales volume reaching 1.7414 million tons, up 8.42% [2]. - The average selling price of potash for the company in 2024 was 1,989.47 yuan per ton, down 17.04% year-on-year, contributing to a 10.06% decline in potash business revenue [2]. - As of April 27, 2025, the domestic market price for potash had risen to 2,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a 12.84% increase since the beginning of 2025 and a 33.95% increase from the March 2024 low [3]. Resource and Capacity Expansion - The company is a leading player in the potash industry, with significant resources in Laos, holding over 1 billion tons of pure potassium chloride reserves [4]. - Current production capacity stands at 3 million tons per year, with plans to expand through additional projects [4]. - The company is also diversifying its operations by developing non-potash industries, enhancing overall resource utilization and economic benefits [4]. Earnings Forecast - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 and 2026 are 1.98 yuan and 2.65 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 14.74 and 11.02 based on the closing price of 29.22 yuan on April 25 [5].

Group 1 - The company reported record high sales of phosphate fertilizers in the first quarter, indicating a significant recovery in profitability [1] - The company expresses confidence in the development of phosphate fertilizers, particularly in compound fertilizers, driven by stricter environmental regulations and the trend of reducing fertilizer usage while increasing efficiency [1] - The exit of small and medium-sized enterprises from the market is expected to lead to a continuous increase in industry concentration [1] Group 2 - In terms of monoammonium phosphate, the ongoing promotion of integrated water and fertilizer policies and the rapid development of the new energy vehicle sector are expected to support demand growth in multiple areas [1] - The industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate sector is highlighted as having a broad market outlook [1]

Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.712 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.28% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 254 million yuan, up 18.99% year-on-year [1] - Net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses reached 250 million yuan, reflecting a significant growth of 61.44% [1] - Basic earnings per share were 0.21 yuan, an increase of 16.67% compared to the previous year [1] Industry Chain Development - The nitrogen industry chain includes a 700,000-ton ammonia project in the Yicheng base, which has completed structural construction and is now in the equipment installation phase [2] - The company is developing a project in Guangxi with a planned capacity of 1.2 million tons of high-efficiency compound fertilizer, 2 million tons of ammonia, and 3 million tons of urea [2] - The phosphorus industry chain includes a 2.9 million tons/year mining project in Leibo, which commenced construction in March 2025 [2] Market Outlook - The demand for fertilizers in regions like Guangxi, Hainan, and Southeast Asia is continuously growing, with the Guangxi project expected to fill capacity gaps in South China [3] - The company aims to enhance its complete nitrogen fertilizer chain and the new energy material chain, thereby optimizing its industry structure and expanding its scale [3] Future Growth Potential - The company is optimistic about the future of the compound fertilizer industry, anticipating a market reshuffle as smaller firms exit due to stricter regulations and raw material price fluctuations [4] - The demand for monoammonium phosphate is expected to grow, driven by national policies and the rapid development of the electric vehicle market [4] Sales and Product Development - In Q1 2025, the company achieved record sales of compound fertilizers, benefiting from cost advantages and strong marketing efforts [4] - The company is focusing on developing new types of fertilizers, including high-efficiency compound fertilizers and various nutrient-enhanced products [4] Project Progress - The Guangxi project is in the preparatory stage, with approvals underway for environmental and safety assessments [7] - The Leibo phosphorus mining project is being expedited, with plans to prioritize internal supply for yellow phosphorus production [7] Strategic Advantages - The company's future performance growth is expected to stem from its complete nitrogen and phosphorus industry chain, which provides resource ownership, industrial synergy, and cost advantages [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic mainstream urea spot factory - gate prices continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. The urea market is expected to show a short - term volatile trend, with the factory - gate prices in some regions expected to stop falling and rise, and in some areas to follow the upward trend. The short - term trading strategy is short - term volatility (mainly short positions), long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spreads below 0, and double - selling for options [3][5][6] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded from the bottom, closing at 1781 (+19/+1.08%) [3] - Spot market: The factory - gate prices continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. The factory - gate prices in different regions are as follows: Henan 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1730 - 1750 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1760 - 1770 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium - and small - sized particles 1690 - 1700 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1740 - 1750 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1650 - 1690 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On April 28, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.16 tons, an increase of 0.65 tons from the previous working day and 1.46 tons from the same period last year. The daily operating rate was 87.43%, a 1.07% increase from 86.36% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - The spot factory - gate prices in mainstream domestic regions continued to decline, but the transaction improved significantly. In Shandong and Henan, the factory - gate prices are expected to rise. In the areas around the delivery area, the factory - gate prices are expected to follow the upward trend. The daily production increased to around 200,000 tons, at the highest level in the same period. The demand side has no possibility of export due to strict legal inspections. The production enthusiasm of compound fertilizers in Central and North China decreased, and the demand for urea declined. The previous supply - demand imbalance was alleviated to some extent, and the market sentiment cooled down. The urea enterprises started to accumulate inventory in April, and the total inventory increased from 700,000 tons to 1.06 million tons. After the factory - gate prices were lowered, the transaction improved. It is expected that the acceptance of downstream and traders will cool down again, and the short - term trend will be volatile [5] Trading Strategy - Single - side: Short - term volatility (mainly short positions) [6] - Arbitrage: Long - term layout of 9 - 1 positive spreads below 0 [6] - Options: Double - selling [9]

撰写品种：尿素 撰写时间：2025 年 4 月 28 日 回顾周期：周度 研究员 ：何宁 咨询证号：Z0001219 尿素周度报告 一、行情回顾 本周尿素期货市场行情呈现下行走势，主力合约 UR2509 周内累计跌幅达 0.9%， 最终收报 1757 元/吨。市场交投活跃度较高，总成交量录得 132.1 万手，其中主力合 约成交量占比高达 89.09%，达 117.7 万手。 从技术面分析显示，期货价格目前维持在 20 日均线附近震荡整理，MACD 指标显 示市场维持震荡格局。基差方面，UR2509 合约基差稳定，山东基差维持在 55 元/ 吨，河南基差为 49 元/吨。 供应端数据显示，本周国内尿素开工率为 83.61%，较上周下降 2.13 个百分点， 部分装置因短暂停产导致开工率回落。预计下周随着装置逐步恢复，开工率将明显回 升。企业盈利状况方面，受需求推迟及短期空档期影响，现货价格震荡趋弱，企业利 润水平有所下滑。后期随着开工率逐步回升至高位，预计旺季背景下企业利润将得到 一定修复。 库存数据显示，企业库存量为 106.5 万吨，较上周增加 15.88 万吨。企业预收订 单天数为 5.12 天，较上周 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the chemical industry, specifically recommending Guoguang Co., Shengquan Group, and others as strong investment opportunities [4]. Core Insights - The chemical market is experiencing active trading, with growth stocks presenting favorable allocation opportunities. The report highlights the "Five Tigers" of Minsheng Chemical, which includes Shengquan Group, Guoci Materials, Guoguang Co., Amway Co., and Polymeric Co. [1][4]. - Phosphate fertilizer demand remains stable, with high prices for phosphate rock expected to continue due to increased entry barriers and a delayed supply release from new mines [1]. - The report suggests focusing on large phosphate chemical enterprises with integrated advantages, such as Yuntianhua, Xingfa Group, Chuanheng Co., and Chuanfa Longmang [1]. Summary by Sections Chemical Sector Overview - The basic chemical industry index closed at 3335.36 points, up 2.71% from the previous week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 2.32% [10]. - Among 462 stocks in the chemical sector, 298 stocks rose (65%), while 148 stocks fell (32%) [16]. Key Chemical Products - The report tracks 380 chemical products, with 59 products seeing price increases and 119 products experiencing declines. Notable price increases were observed in liquid chlorine, sulfuric acid, and MDI [21]. - Liquid chlorine prices surged by 105% to 41 CNY/ton, while sulfuric acid prices rose by 21% to 100 CNY/ton [22]. Subsector Tracking - Polycarbonate (PC) production capacity is expected to grow from 875,000 tons in 2018 to 3,810,000 tons by 2024, with a gradual improvement in supply-demand balance anticipated from 2025 to 2029 [2]. - The organic silicon sector is projected to see a recovery in supply-demand balance, with a compound annual growth rate of 22.4% in production capacity from 2021 to 2024 [2]. Company Profit Forecasts - Guoguang Co. is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.78 CNY in 2024, with a PE ratio of 19, while Shengquan Group is expected to have an EPS of 1.03 CNY with a PE ratio of 24 [4].

投资咨询业务资格 证监发【2014】217号 【中原化工】 需求暂未见明显改善，关注夏季肥补货节奏 ——尿素周报2025.04.28 中原期货研究所：化工组 作者：刘培洋 研究助理：申文 执业证书编号：F0290318 执业证书编号： F03117458 投资咨询编号：Z0011155 0371-58620083 0371-58620081 liupy_qh@ccnew.com shenwen_qh@ccnew.com 01 周度观点汇总 1.1 尿素周度观点——需求暂未见明显改善，关注夏季肥补货节奏 | 品种 | 1. 供应：日产维持高位运行； | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险提示 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2. 需求：阶段性需求支撑较弱； 3. 库存：上游尿素企业库存持续累积； | | | | | | 4. 成本与利润：煤炭价格窄幅波动，尿素利润环比下降； | | | | | | 5. 基差与价差：5-9价差偏弱震荡，05基差走弱。 | | | 保供稳价政策、 | | | 6. 整体逻辑： | | UR2509合约关 | 新 增 产 能 投 放 | | ...

Group 1: Event Overview - The event was an annual performance briefing held on April 28, 2025, from 15:00 to 16:00 [1] - The event took place on the "Panorama Roadshow" website, allowing remote text communication [1] Group 2: Participants - Participants included Vice Chairman and President Mr. Yang Huafeng, Director and CFO Ms. Yang Xiaohong, Independent Director Mr. Gao Yongfeng, and Board Secretary Mr. Wei Wanwei [1] Group 3: Disclosure Information - The event did not involve the disclosure of any significant information [1] - No presentation materials or documents were provided during the event [1]