Core Insights - The city of Chicago is currently in its budget season, with a proposal to cease direct purchases of treasuries, despite not holding any currently [2][3] - The proposal requires city council approval, and there is skepticism among aldermen regarding its prudence, with some labeling it as reckless [3] - The performance of treasuries has outpaced the portfolio's returns last year, raising questions about the rationale behind excluding them [4] Muni Market Activity - Muni trading is experiencing record volumes this year, with significant trading activity noted in April, described as frenetic [5][6] - The record trading volume is attributed to a substantial increase in state and local debt sales, leading to heightened trading activity among investors and dealers [6] - Demand for munis has rebounded, with inflows into the market totaling approximately $41 billion, particularly towards ETFs focused on munis [8] Future Expectations - Expectations for 2026 indicate that supply will continue to be robust, with projections for another record year in terms of supply, contributing to ongoing active trading [9]

Core Viewpoint - U.S. Treasury yields remained stable as investors reacted positively to the conclusion of the longest government shutdown in U.S. history [1] Treasury Yields Summary - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by more than 2 basis points, reaching 4.108% [1] - The 2-year note yield also rose by more than 2 basis points, now at 3.587% [1] - The 30-year bond yield climbed by more than 3 basis points, reaching 4.70% [1] - It is noted that one basis point is equivalent to 0.01%, and yields and prices move in opposite directions [1]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【11月13日欧洲上午中段交易时段，美国国债收益率趋稳】此时美国政府即将重新开放，但谨慎情绪蔓 延。金融市场策略师Eric Chia称，市场仍保持谨慎，关注点转向待发布的积压数据，这些数据或显示劳 动力市场和整体需求疲软。 这种不安情绪源于本周疲软的ADP报告，该报告显示截至十月下旬四周 内，美国私营部门平均每周裁员11,250个。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Technology Board" of the bond market has achieved remarkable results after half a year of operation. As of November 7, the issuance scale of science - innovation bonds exceeded 1.8 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 77.98%. The approval of the first science - innovation convertible bond strengthens the stock - bond linkage, which is expected to optimize the credit market structure and promote the virtuous cycle of "science - industry - finance" [3][10]. - In October, the year - on - year CPI growth rate turned positive, and the import and export data showed resilience, indicating a certain recovery in consumer demand and domestic demand [4][13]. - Last week, the central bank net - withdrew funds through open - market operations, but under the support of monetary policy, most capital prices declined [5][16]. - In the primary market of credit bonds, the issuance scale continued to decline, and the issuance cost varied. In the secondary market, the trading activity decreased slightly, and the yields of credit bonds continued to decline [6][21][31]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market Hotspots - The "Technology Board" of the bond market has been in operation for half a year. As of November 7, 1668 science - innovation bonds were issued this year, with a cumulative issuance scale of 18139.71 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 77.98%. The new science - innovation bonds have features such as better - matched terms, lower issuance costs, and diversified issuer structures. The first science - innovation convertible bond was approved, which provides a more flexible financing solution for high - growth technology enterprises and is expected to promote the virtuous cycle of "science - industry - finance" [10][11][12]. Macroeconomic Data - In October, the year - on - year CPI growth rate turned positive at 0.2%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The core CPI increased by 1.2% year - on - year, with the growth rate expanding for six consecutive months. The year - on - year PPI decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points to - 2.1%. The export volume in October was 3053.5 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and the import volume was 2152.8 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%. The Sino - US trade surplus in October was 900.7 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9% [4][13][14]. Money Market - Last week, the central bank net - withdrew 15722 billion yuan through open - market operations. Under the support of monetary policy, most capital prices declined. Except for the 1 - day and 1 - month repurchase rates which increased by 1bp and 2bp respectively, the other term - pledged repurchase rates decreased, with a maximum decline of 5bp. The 3 - month and 1 - year Shibor decreased by 1bp and 2bp respectively, and the spread between them narrowed to 6bp [5][16]. Primary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the issuance scale of credit bonds continued to decline to 2770.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 156.11 billion yuan from the previous period. The cancellation of credit bond issuance increased to 32 billion yuan. Except for the ultra - short - term financing bonds and private placement notes, the issuance scale of other bond types decreased. The infrastructure investment and financing industry's issuance scale decreased, while the industrial bond issuance scale changed little. The average issuance cost of credit bonds varied, with the issuance costs of 3 - year and 5 - year bonds mostly decreasing and those of 1 - year bonds mostly increasing, with a change range of 2bp to 38bp [6][21][29]. Secondary Market of Credit Bonds - Last week, the secondary - market trading volume of bonds was 90816.29 billion yuan, and the average daily trading volume decreased by 463.15 billion yuan to 18163.26 billion yuan, indicating a decline in trading activity. The yields of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds showed different trends. The yields of all - term treasury bonds and policy - bank bonds increased, with the 10 - year treasury bond yield increasing by 2bp to 1.81%. Most credit bond yields decreased, with a maximum decline of 9bp. The credit spreads of all terms generally narrowed, and most rating spreads also narrowed [7][31][41].

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at a new high, influenced by the strong performance of risk assets [1] - Bond market yields rose, with the 5-7 year government bond yields increasing significantly, and the 10-year yield up by 0.4 basis points [1] Bond Market Performance - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down by 0.26%, the 10-year down by 0.10%, the 5-year down by 0.08%, and the 2-year down by 0.01% [1] - As of 16:30, the yield on the 10-year government bond was reported at 1.805%, up by 0.4 basis points, while the 10-year policy bank bond yield was at 1.8765%, also up by 0.4 basis points [1] Auction Results - The weighted average rates for recent bond auctions were as follows: 1-year government bond at 1.4847%, 5-year at 1.7201%, and 10-year at 1.8921% [3] - The bid-to-cover ratios for these auctions were 2.86 for the 1-year bond, 2.82 for the 5-year bond, and 4.03 for the 10-year bond, indicating strong demand [3] Credit Bond Market - The top five gainers in the non-financial credit bond market included H0中骏02, 23万科01, and 23产融06, with respective price increases of 4.29% and 3.25% [4] - Conversely, the top five losers included 24金隅K1 and 22万科04, with declines of 5.77% and 4.99% respectively [4] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank conducted a 190 billion yuan reverse repo operation at a fixed rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 972 billion yuan for the day [5] - Overnight SHIBOR fell to 1.3150%, down by 10 basis points, while the 7-day SHIBOR remained unchanged at 1.4740% [5] Interbank Rates - Most interbank repo rates declined, with FR001 down by 8 basis points to 1.4% and FR007 down by 1 basis point to 1.5% [5] - The rates for various tenors showed a general downward trend, indicating easing liquidity conditions in the market [5]

Group 1 - The report identifies several key puzzles resolved in 2025, including the final determination of monetary policy, the stage bottom of the bond market, and the credit risk outlook, indicating that mainstream varieties do not require excessive concern [7] - The report highlights ongoing contradictions for 2026, such as the conflict between the macro narrative and micro sentiment, and the limited space for capital gains versus coupon strategies in the bond market [7] - The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in 2026, with a focus on timing over selection, and a preference for coupon strategies over duration [7] Group 2 - The report outlines several long-term bullish factors for the bond market, including the experience of low interest rates in other economies, weak economic sentiment, and a lack of leverage among residents [8][9] - Short-term bearish factors are identified, such as the rising equity market attracting funds away from bonds, and the potential tightening of monetary policy due to inflation expectations [8][9] - The report emphasizes that the risk of credit bond defaults is diminishing, with the current market dominated by state-owned enterprises, reducing concerns over credit risk [31][26] Group 3 - The report provides specific strategies for different types of bonds, recommending a focus on financial bonds for their safety and liquidity, while suggesting a cautious approach to city investment bonds and a selective strategy for industrial bonds [10] - The financial bond market is highlighted as a key area for trading strategies, with a focus on liquidity rather than yield in a low coupon environment [10] - The city investment bond market is expected to remain stable until mid-2028, with opportunities for adjustment based on risk preferences and yield demands [10]

Core Insights - The global bond market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with the U.S.-China interest rate differential drawing attention, and a professional tool for millisecond-level alerts is becoming central to investor decision-making [1][2] - U.S. Treasury yields have reversed their downward trend, with the 10-year benchmark yield dropping to 4.30%, driven by ongoing bets on potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - China's domestic bond market is showing similar trends, with government bonds opening high and futures closing up across the board [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In 2025, bond investors face unprecedented challenges and opportunities due to increased market volatility, subtle fluctuations in government bond yields, and sudden changes in corporate bond credit spreads [2] - The U.S. Treasury market has reversed a three-day decline, influenced by investor expectations of a possible rate cut by the Federal Reserve as early as September [2] - On August 20, China's interest rate bonds opened high, with the 10-year government bond actively declining, while futures for 30-year and 10-year contracts rose by 0.23% and 0.03%, respectively [2] Group 2: Information Tools - The speed and quality of information acquisition are critical in the rapidly changing bond market, making the ability to obtain timely information a core competitive advantage for investors [3] - A comprehensive evaluation of mainstream bond news apps is based on five dimensions: data coverage, news timeliness, analytical professionalism, tool practicality, and user experience [3] Group 3: Leading Tools - Five leading bond news applications have been identified, each with unique features and advantages, including Wind, iFinD, Choice, and Zhitong Finance [4] - Wind is recognized as the standard for institutional markets, offering extensive global bond data but at a high annual fee exceeding 20,000 yuan [4] - iFinD excels in intelligent bond strategy recommendations tailored to user risk preferences, while Choice provides free basic bond market data and an active community [4] Group 4: Sina Finance APP Advantages - The Sina Finance APP leads bond information applications with a comprehensive score of 91.6, showcasing four core competitive advantages [5] - It monitors over 40 markets seamlessly, covering various bond types and providing detailed data such as government bond futures and regional risk scores for municipal bonds [6] - The app's "bond anomaly monitoring" system can push alerts within three seconds of unusual trading price differences, leveraging a dedicated financial media team for timely insights [7] Group 5: AI Integration - The "Xina AI Assistant" in the Sina Finance APP marks a new era of intelligent financial news interpretation, capable of summarizing lengthy reports and identifying risk and opportunity points [11] - The system can automatically generate trading strategies based on Federal Reserve decisions, allowing users to execute trades directly [11] - This "information-analysis-trading" loop empowers ordinary investors with institutional-level decision-making capabilities [12] Group 6: Custom Solutions - Investors are encouraged to select tools based on their specific needs, with various combinations of applications recommended for different user types [13][14][15][16] - The comprehensive evaluation indicates that the Sina Finance APP, with its millisecond-level market coverage and AI-driven strategy generation, effectively enables investors to navigate bond market volatility with confidence [16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - China's economy shows mixed trends with some indicators like GDP and CPI improving while others such as manufacturing PMI and export growth weakening [1]. - The commodity market is influenced by various factors including monetary policies, geopolitical risks, and supply - demand dynamics [2][3][4]. - The financial market, including the bond and stock markets, has its own characteristics and trends, with different investment strategies recommended [22][28][31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Data - GDP growth in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the previous quarter's 5.2% [1]. - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month [1]. - CPI in October 2025 was 0.2% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month [1]. - Export and import growth in October 2025 were - 1.1% and 1.0% year - on - year respectively, showing a slowdown in exports [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The central bank's moderately loose monetary policy in 2025 led to reasonable growth in financial aggregates and low social financing costs, with optimized credit structure [2]. - In October 2025, the national futures market volume decreased by 13.26% year - on - year while the turnover increased by 4.54% year - on - year [3]. - There are different views within the Fed on interest rate policies, which affects the global financial market [3]. 3.2.2 Metals - Gold prices continued to rise on November 12, 2025, with domestic brand gold jewelry prices hitting new highs [4]. - Global geopolitical risks and Fed's internal policy divergence drove investors to gold as a safe - haven asset [4]. - Some metal inventories in the London Metal Exchange changed on November 11, 2025, with zinc and tin inventories increasing and others like lead and nickel decreasing [5]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel and Minerals - The Simandou Iron Ore Project was officially put into production, with a proven reserve of 44 billion tons and a planned annual capacity of 120 million tons [6]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - OPEC's downward adjustment of global oil demand and increased US API crude inventory led to a decline in US oil prices [8]. - The National Energy Administration released a guidance on promoting the integrated and coordinated development of new energy, aiming to enhance the proportion of green power [9]. - The EIA adjusted its oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [9]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products - COFCO Group signed a large - scale agricultural product purchase contract with Brazil, involving nearly 20 million tons of soybeans, soybean oil, and palm oil [13]. - Malaysia's palm oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high of 20 million tons, a 3.4% year - on - year increase [14]. 3.3 Financial News 3.3.1 Open Market - On November 12, 2025, the central bank conducted 195.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 130 billion yuan [16]. 3.3.2 Key News - China and Spain strengthened cooperation in various fields after the meeting between the two heads of state [18]. - China's central bank plans to improve the central bank system during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period [18]. - The issuance scale of panda bonds in China has reached the trillion - yuan level, and the global bond issuance scale hit a record high this year [19][20]. 3.3.3 Bond Market - China's bond market generally warmed up, with most interest - rate bond yields falling and treasury bond futures rising [22]. - The yields of European and US bonds showed different trends on November 12, 2025 [26]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on November 12, 2025, and the US dollar index fell slightly [27]. 3.3.5 Research Reports - Different securities firms put forward investment strategies for convertible bonds, bonds, and interest - rate bonds in 2026 [28][29]. 3.3.6 Today's Reminders - On November 13, 2025, a large number of bonds will be listed, issued, have payments made, and have principal and interest repaid [30]. 3.4 Stock Market - The China Securities Regulatory Commission will deepen comprehensive investment and financing reforms to enhance the stability of the capital market [31]. - Foreign investors' holdings of A - shares have increased, and global large - scale investment institutions have increased their positions in Chinese stocks [32]. - A - shares fluctuated on November 12, 2025, with some sectors rising and others falling, and the trading volume reached 1.96 trillion yuan [33]. - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose on November 12, 2025, with pharmaceutical and real - estate stocks leading the gains [33]. - This year, the number of newly - issued funds in the whole market reached a three - year high, with a "strong equity, weak bond" trend [34].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government has successfully priced approximately HKD 10 billion (equivalent to about USD 1.28 billion) in digital green bonds under its sustainable bond program, which includes currencies such as HKD, RMB, USD, and EUR [1] - This issuance marks the third "native digital" bond in Hong Kong for the year 2023, utilizing blockchain technology to enhance flexibility [1] - The issuance lays the groundwork for future integration of other forms of digital currencies, including tokenized central bank currencies [1] Group 2 - Digital assets are gaining increasing attention in Asia, particularly in the context of cryptocurrency-friendly policies [3] - However, the International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO) has issued a report warning that crypto tokens linked to mainstream financial assets like stocks and bonds may pose significant new risks to investors [3] - There remains a substantial divide within the global financial industry regarding the advantages and disadvantages of "tokenization" [3]

Market Insights - Russia plans to issue its first sovereign bonds denominated in RMB, with the issuance scale and coupon rate to be determined based on subscription results on December 2, and technical allocation scheduled for December 8 [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary revealed that the Trump administration will announce "substantive" new tariff measures in the coming days, including tariff reductions on coffee and bananas, and discussions on providing a $2,000 "tariff rebate" to households earning less than $100,000 [1] - The issuance of U.S. investment-grade bonds in 2025 has surpassed last year's $1.496 trillion, although it remains below the historical peak of $1.75 trillion in 2020. The global bond issuance in 2025 has exceeded $6 trillion, setting a new record [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary stated that the auction scale of U.S. Treasury bonds will remain unchanged in the coming quarters, while closely monitoring potential long-term changes in demand for specific U.S. government bonds [1] Economic Policy and Federal Reserve - The White House National Economic Council Director expressed willingness to accept a nomination to replace Powell as Fed Chair, advocating for a significant rate cut of 50 basis points in December [2] - Due to the government shutdown, the October employment report and CPI data may not be released, potentially marking the first time in history that these key economic indicators are missing [2] - The Atlanta Fed President unexpectedly announced retirement at the end of his term in February 2026, which is seen as a move to avoid potential reappointment controversies [2] - The Boston Fed President indicated that the threshold for further rate cuts in the short term is relatively high due to persistent inflation, emphasizing caution in the current uncertain policy environment [2] Energy Market - The International Energy Agency's World Energy Outlook report suggests that global oil and gas demand may continue to grow until 2050, with LNG supply expected to increase by 50% by 2030 [3] - OPEC's latest monthly report predicts a balanced oil market by 2026, maintaining its global oil demand growth forecast at 1.38 million barrels per day for 2026 [3]