记者手记｜高市大肆发债难纾涨价困境 日本东京大学名誉教授上野千鹤子在社交媒体表示，18.3万亿日元的补充预算中竟有11.7万亿日元 要靠新发国债筹措，真忍不住想把这届政府称作"亡国"内阁。 （新华社东京12月6日电） 新华社记者刘春燕 日本首相高市早苗日前推动内阁批准总规模达18.3万亿日元（1美元约合155日元）的补充预算 案。虽尚未获得国会批准，这一靠大规模发债筹款的补充预算已引发日本媒体和专家普遍忧虑。 日本舆论认为，高市以"落实物价对策"之名编制巨额补充预算、推出大规模经济刺激计划，"刷存 在感"是最大目的，无法让日本摆脱物价持续上涨的困境。对于债务余额占国内生产总值比重高达 240%的日本政府来说，减税、补贴等大规模财政支出计划，势必加重债务负担，加剧日元贬值， 进一步推高日本物价。 受日元贬值、进口商品价格上涨等因素影响，近年日本物价持续上涨。日本总务省报告显示，截 至今年10月，日本去除生鲜食品后的核心消费价格指数已连续50个月同比上升。日本企业信用调 查公司帝国数据库日前公布的调查结果显示，2025年日本累计有20609种食品价格上涨，较去年的 12520种大幅增加约65%。 高市多次强调，物 ...

2025 年 12 月 6 日 总量研究 信用债发行量环比下降，各行业信用利差整体上行 ——信用债周度观察（20251201-20251205） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单和政金债）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 12 月 1 日至 12 月 5 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 308 只， 发行规模总计 3395.35 亿元，环比减少 42.35%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 123 只，发行规模达 1149.26 亿元，环比 减少 62.74%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 33.85%；城投债共发行 152 只， 发行规模达 963.39 亿元，环比减少 18.53%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 28.37%；金融债共发行 33 只，发行规模达 1282.70 亿元，环比减少 20.96%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 37.78%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 2.66 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 2.49 年、城投债平均发行期限为 2.80 年、金融债平均发行期限为 2.6 ...

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 作者：睿知睿见 来源：雪球 最近人民币十分强势！已经突破了7.06！ 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 ↑ 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 估计在年底前突破7的概率很高！ 值得注意的是，虽然最近美元也有走弱，但人民币显然更强，因此 人民币走强既有被动的原因，也有主动的因素。 如果要细究人民币走强的拐点就更有趣了。 正好是中美通完电话后。 所以，我一直都在说，汇率这东西属于国际政治的一种工具。 看到人民币这么强，至少我内心就更踏实。 甭管现在股市回调节奏如何， 大趋势依然不会变。 不过，债市这边最近跌得有点猛！ 30年国债ETF创新低。今年下跌5.73%。 年初我就跟大家分享过了， 今年要回避长债！ 现在还只是刚刚开始，如果2026年进展的顺利，债市还有得跌。 一、汇率是怎么把债市带崩的？ 股债汇相互之间都是关联在一起的。 汇率出现升值的苗头就势必会给股和债带来变化。 然而，当这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report establishes a tactical analysis framework based on the eight-stage classification of the economic cycle and financial conditions, providing a structured basis for understanding asset performance under different macroeconomic states [2][5][11]. Group 1: Tactical Analysis Framework - The Economic Cycle Index (RECI) quantifies the internal trends of the economy, indicating whether the economy is in an upward or downward phase [6]. - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) quantifies the degree of financial environment tightness, categorizing it into four states: easing reinforcement, easing convergence, tightening reinforcement, and tightening convergence [9]. - The combination of RECI and FCI allows for the classification of the macroeconomic environment into eight typical stages, aiding in the understanding of asset performance under varying economic conditions [11][12]. Group 2: Asset Performance Review - The report systematically reviews the performance of major asset classes (stocks, bonds, and commodities) from June 2005 to August 2025, using the established eight-stage framework [2][11]. - Historical performance aligns with theoretical expectations in most stages, such as the "economic upturn + financial easing reinforcement" phase, where the asset ranking is "stocks > commodities > bonds > cash" [3][14]. - However, some stages exhibit systematic deviations, such as the "economic downturn + financial easing reinforcement" phase, where commodities outperformed bonds due to pre-priced easing expectations in the bond market [4][27]. Group 3: Historical Backtesting - Historical backtesting shows that during the "economic upturn + financial easing convergence" phase, commodities and stocks outperform cash and bonds, as seen in the period from June 2020 to February 2021 [19][18]. - The "economic downturn + financial tightening convergence" phase typically results in a ranking of "bonds > stocks > cash > commodities," as evidenced in the second quarter of 2014 [43]. - The report emphasizes the need for dynamic application of the framework, incorporating structural economic variables to enhance predictive accuracy [4].

本文内容根据公开信息整理生成，不代表发布者及其关联方的官方立场或观点，亦不构成任何形式的投 资建议。请您对文中关键信息进行独立核实，自主决策并承担相应风险。 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 来源：市场资讯 从金融市场角度看，国债还具有基准定价功能。由于其信用风险极低，国债收益率常被作为金融市场无 风险收益率的参考标准，为各类金融产品定价提供锚点，如企业债券、贷款定价等均需参考国债收益率 曲线。同时，国债在金融机构资产配置中占据重要位置，是机构调节资产流动性、优化风险收益结构的 关键工具。 以上信息由金融界利用AI助手整理发布。金融界是国内专业的财经资讯平台，专注于为用户提供全 面、准确的金融信息服务，内容覆盖宏观经济、政策法规、金融市场、财经知识等多个领域，致力于通 过专业内容帮助用户提升金融认知水平，理解经济运行逻辑。 免责声明： 国债作为国家财政政策与金融体系衔接的重要载体，在现代经济运行中具有不可替代的作用。其本质是 国家以信用为基础向社会公众及机构筹集资金的债权债务凭证，发行与管理需严格遵循国家财政法规和 金融监管要求，是体现国家信用、调节经 ...

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to present moderate accumulation risks in 2026, with investment opportunities arising from unpredictable triggers [1] - A flexible asset allocation strategy is essential, as investors should seek overlooked areas through rigorous fundamental research and innovative approaches in the corporate bond market [1] - The fixed income investors will face diverging economic cycles among major economies, with notable differences in inflation, monetary policy, and economic growth direction [1] Group 2 - The bond market performance in 2025 showed significant divergence across regions and maturities, a trend expected to continue into 2026 due to varying economic growth, employment markets, and inflation outlooks [2] - The U.S. economic outlook for 2026 remains positive, supported by fiscal stimulus and easing monetary policy, although there are concerns about excessive stimulus measures [2] - Passive management strategies may lead to overexposure to underperforming assets, increasing risk and potentially dragging down returns [2] Group 3 - Global bond investment portfolios are seen as more advantageous, given robust economic growth and dovish policy directions [3] - The European economy is expected to improve steadily into 2026, although Germany's fiscal stimulus may not significantly alter overall Eurozone growth [3] - Corporate bonds have performed well over the past year, but the valuation starting point will be crucial for future returns, with current credit risk premiums at historical lows [3]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest value of the 1-year yield of China's 2-year treasury bond is 1.406 [2] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging economies' currencies are: 5.312 against the Brazilian real, 16.996 against the South African rand, 1473.500 against the South Korean won, 32.040 against the Thai baht, and 4.113 against the Malaysian ringgit [2] - The latest values of the onshore RMB, offshore RMB, RMB central parity rate, and RMB 12-month NDF are 7.072, 7.072, 7.073, and 6.935 respectively [2] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 at 6857.120, Dow Jones Industrial Average at 47850.940, NASDAQ at 23505.140, etc [2] - The latest values of credit bond indices are: US investment-grade credit bond index at 3540.480, eurozone investment-grade credit bond index at 266.108, etc [2] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A-shares, the closing price is 3875.79 with a -0.06% change; for the CSI 300, it's 4546.57 with a 0.34% change; for the SSE 50, it's 2974.34 with a 0.38% change; for the ChiNext, it's 3067.48 with a 1.01% change; for the CSI 500, it's 7012.81 with a 0.24% change [3] - The PE(TTM) values of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are 13.96, 11.82, 31.94, 27.28, and 18.52 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.02, 0.02, 0.06, 0.04, and 0.15 [3] - The latest capital flow values for A-shares, the main board, the small and medium-sized enterprise board, the ChiNext, and the CSI 300 are -442.10, -426.62, -, -67.51, and 72.52 respectively, and the 5-day average values are -509.13, -353.73, -, -119.52, and -30.13 [3] - The latest trading volume values for the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium-sized board, and ChiNext are 15489.60, 3487.67, 886.22, 3137.25, and 4117.28 respectively, with环比 changes of -1210.02, -257.19, 31.27, -174.24, and -545.69 [4] - The basis and basis spread for IF, IH, and IC are -15.97 (-0.35%), -6.14 (-0.21%), and -29.61 (-0.42%) respectively [4] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T2303, TF2303, T2306, and TF2306 treasury bond futures are 108.00, 105.62, 107.67, and 105.60 respectively, with changes of -0.22%, -0.14%, -0.34%, and -0.24% [4] - The current capital interest rates of R001, R007, and SHIBOR-3M are 1.3611%, 1.4852%, and 1.5800% respectively, with daily changes of -12.00 BP, 1.00 BP, and 0.00 BP [4]

Core Viewpoint - US Treasury bonds weakened after initial jobless claims and continuing claims data came in below expectations, leading to a flattening of the yield curve [1][3] Group 1: Yield Movements - The entire yield curve rose by 3 to 5 basis points after 3 PM ET, with the middle of the curve leading the decline [1][3] - The 10-year Treasury yield closed at approximately 4.105%, up 4 basis points on the day [4][6] - The 5s30s spread narrowed by nearly 2 basis points, reversing the steepening trend observed on Wednesday [1][3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The majority of the decline in bond prices occurred following the release of weekly jobless claims data, which initially triggered price volatility [5] - The overnight index swap (OIS) related to the federal funds rate expectations remained stable for the December meeting, implying a rate cut of about 22 basis points [5] - The longer end of the curve indicates an expected cumulative rate cut of approximately 60 basis points by the June meeting next year, although traders are betting on a deeper rate cut path in SOFR options [5] Group 3: Current Yield Rates - As of 3 PM ET, the yield rates were as follows: - 2-year Treasury yield at 3.5288% - 5-year Treasury yield at 3.6832% - 10-year Treasury yield at 4.1098% - 30-year Treasury yield at 4.7667% [2][6] Group 4: Yield Spreads - The spread between the 5-year and 30-year Treasury yields was reported at 108.17 basis points - The spread between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields was reported at 57.68 basis points [7]

责任编辑：李桐 美国国债期货跌至日内低点，因周度初请失业救济人数总计19.1万人，低于经济学家预期中值22万人， 降至三年多来的最低水平。前值上修2000人。持续申请失业救济人数也低于预期，且前值被下修。 美国国债收益率上升2-4个基点，收益率曲线中段价格领跌，5年期与30年期利差维持在盘中低位附近。 10年期国债收益率一度攀升4.5个基点至4.11%左右。 美国国债期货跌至日内低点，因周度初请失业救济人数总计19.1万人，低于经济学家预期中值22万人， 降至三年多来的最低水平。前值上修2000人。持续申请失业救济人数也低于预期，且前值被下修。 美国国债收益率上升2-4个基点，收益率曲线中段价格领跌，5年期与30年期利差维持在盘中低位附近。 10年期国债收益率一度攀升4.5个基点至4.11%左右。 美联储定价的隔夜指数掉期市场持稳，定价显示12月10日政策会议将降息约22个基点，12月和1月联邦 公开市场委员会会议累计降息30个基点。 责任编辑：李桐 美联储定价的隔夜指数掉期市场持稳，定价显示12月10日政策会议将降息约22个基点，12月和1月联邦 公开市场委员会会议累计降息30个基点。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant declines, with long-term bonds facing increased selling pressure and widening yield spreads, indicating a challenging environment for investors [3][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 4, the bond market saw a notable decline, with the 30-year government bond futures contract dropping over 1%, marking the largest single-day decline in recent times [3][5]. - The yield on the 30-year special government bond reached approximately 2.28%, while the 10-year bond yield rose to 1.8525% [6][5]. - The yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds has widened to around 43 basis points, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment [6][12]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The ongoing decline in the bond market is attributed to a combination of trading behaviors and a lack of positive market signals, leading to heightened panic among investors [7][9]. - Banks and non-bank financial institutions are primarily responsible for the selling pressure, as many institutions seek to realize gains from previous investments amid market volatility [9][10]. - The recent regulatory changes regarding public fund redemption fees have contributed to increased selling pressure, particularly among public funds and brokerages [11][12]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the short-term bearish sentiment, many institutions maintain a cautiously optimistic view on the long-term trend of the bond market, anticipating potential recovery as liquidity conditions improve [14]. - Analysts suggest that the current high yields on long-term bonds may present buying opportunities, especially if monetary policy shifts towards easing [14][13]. - The upcoming central bank operations, including a planned 10 billion yuan reverse repurchase agreement, are expected to influence market liquidity and investor sentiment [14][12].