Core Viewpoint - The upcoming $22 billion 30-year U.S. Treasury bond auction is drawing significant attention from global financial markets, as it will reflect the true demand for U.S. long-term debt amid widespread investor resistance to such securities [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Auction Indicators - The auction results will serve as a critical gauge of market demand, with key indicators including the settlement yield difference from pre-auction trading levels and the bid-to-cover ratio [4]. - A recent $20 billion 20-year Treasury auction showed weak demand, leading to a rise in U.S. Treasury yields, with the highest awarded yield reaching 5.047%, approximately 1.2 basis points higher than the pre-auction rate [4]. - If the 30-year Treasury auction exhibits similar weak performance, it could heighten concerns about market demand and lead to a chain reaction affecting financing pressures [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing Long-term Debt - The U.S. Treasury market is facing multiple challenges, including a significant decline in the share of foreign official investors, which has dropped from nearly 70% in 2012 to an estimated 40% by the end of 2024 [5]. - Political factors are increasingly influencing long-term bond demand, leading to a decoupling of long-term interest rates from monetary policy, making long-term bonds a less attractive option [5]. - The U.S. government is projected to add trillions to the budget deficit over the coming years due to tax and spending legislation, contributing to a vicious cycle of increasing debt and interest payments [5].

日本30年期国债收益率下行5个基点至2.86%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of a scientific and standardized environmental benefit information disclosure indicator system for green bonds is crucial for identifying green bonds and enhancing their international recognition, aligning with the spirit of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Sections Importance of Green Bond Environmental Benefit Disclosure Standards - The core distinction of green bonds lies in the green attributes of the funds raised, which are identified through environmental benefit information disclosure. The lack of standardized rules has led to inconsistent quality and comparability issues in disclosures [2][3]. - Establishing a standardized disclosure system is necessary to support the healthy development of the green bond market and to achieve national green development and carbon neutrality goals [2][3]. Current Challenges and International Recognition - The quality of environmental benefit disclosures needs improvement, as there are no unified standards for specific environmental benefit indicators related to green projects [3]. - To enhance international recognition of China's green bond market, a standardized system and centralized data disclosure platform are urgently needed to address concerns about "greenwashing" [3][4]. Development of the Green Bond Environmental Benefit Disclosure Standard - A comprehensive indicator system has been developed, covering 205 sub-categories of green projects with 47 environmental benefit indicators, including mandatory and optional indicators [6][7]. - The People's Bank of China officially released the "Green Bond Environmental Benefit Information Disclosure Indicator System" in December 2024, marking a significant breakthrough in the green finance sector [6][8]. Advantages of the Disclosure Standard - The standard is designed to objectively quantify environmental benefits, is user-friendly, compatible with domestic and international standards, and has high feasibility [8]. - Approximately 87% of green bonds issued in 2024 disclosed environmental benefit information, with over 60% alignment with the new standard, indicating its applicability and operability [8]. Impact and Application of the Standard - The standard aids in measurable, reportable, and verifiable environmental benefit disclosures, gaining recognition from regulatory bodies, issuers, investors, and third-party certification agencies [9][10]. - A centralized database has been created to showcase environmental benefit data from green bonds, covering over 6,000 bonds with a total issuance exceeding 12 trillion yuan [11]. - The standard is being applied in various sectors, including local financial institutions and other green financial products, to ensure a cohesive green finance ecosystem [12]. Future Recommendations - Continuous tracking of the application of green finance standards and promoting mutual recognition with international standards is recommended to enhance China's influence in the green finance sector [13]. - Further research on transitional finance information disclosure and the establishment of a competitive environment for certification agencies are suggested to improve the quality and effectiveness of disclosures [13][15].

Group 1: Open Market Operations - The central bank announced a 7-day reverse repurchase operation on June 9, with a fixed rate and quantity tendering of 173.8 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.40%, with the same amount being the bid and awarded [1] - On the same day, there were no reverse repos maturing, resulting in a net injection of 173.8 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Funding Conditions - Following a trillion-yuan reverse repurchase operation that boosted confidence, the central bank continued to inject liquidity, leading to a more relaxed interbank funding environment, with overnight pledged repo rates falling over 3 basis points, dropping below 1.4% [3] - The latest overnight financing rate in the U.S. stands at 4.29% [4] Group 3: Interbank Certificates of Deposit - The latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit among major banks is around 1.67%, showing a slight decline from the previous day [6] Group 4: Bond Yield Rates - The yields for various government bonds are as follows: 1Y at 1.4100%, 2Y at 1.4250%, 3Y at 1.4350%, 5Y at 1.4976%, 7Y at 1.5865%, and 10Y at 1.6550% [8] - The yields for policy bank bonds and local government bonds also show slight variations, with some yields decreasing [8] Group 5: Recent Economic Indicators - In May, China's CPI decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 0.2%, while PPI fell by 3.3%, worse than the expected drop of 3.2% [12] Group 6: International Economic Dialogue - During a visit to the UK, China's Vice Premier He Lifeng discussed economic and financial cooperation with UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, emphasizing the need for mutual efforts to implement agreements and deepen economic relations [14]

两年期美债收益率跌3.32个基点，报4.0034%，日内交投于4.0325%-3.9909%区间，非农日也曾涨至 4.0407%。 周一（6月9日）纽约尾盘，美国10年期基准国债收益率下跌3.18个基点，报4.4738%，日内交投于 4.5156%-4.4678%区间，北京时间20:56涨穿6月6日发布美国非农就业报告之后出现的当天顶部 4.5116%。 ...

两年期德债收益率跌1.6个基点，报1.864%，日内交投于1.881%-1.837%区间；30年期德债收益率涨0.3 个基点，报3.012%。 周一（6月9日）欧市尾盘，德国10年期国债收益率跌0.9个基点，报2.567%，日内交投于2.593%-2.514% 区间，北京时间16:16刷新日低，随后持续反弹，在20:59刷新日高。 2/10年期德债收益率利差涨0.785个基点，报+69.775个基点。 ...

美国至6月9日6个月国债竞拍-得标利率 4.15%，前值4.15%。 ...

Key Points - The bond market is showing overall strength with a balanced and slightly loose funding environment [2][4] - The issuance of technology innovation bonds has exceeded 400 billion yuan, with 216 bonds issued since May 7 [4] - China's foreign exchange reserves increased by 3.6 billion USD to 328.53 billion USD at the end of May [4] - The Ministry of Finance announced the issuance of 50 billion yuan in savings bonds with fixed interest rates [6] - The total scale of bond ETFs has surpassed 300 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in stable asset allocation [6] - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 139,000 in May, slightly above expectations, but previous months' data were significantly revised down [7] - International oil prices continue to rise, with WTI crude oil up 6.23% for the week [8] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 135 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, resulting in a net withdrawal of 151.6 billion yuan [10] - The bond market is experiencing a strong performance, with the yield on 10-year government bonds declining to 1.6525% [14] - The secondary market for credit bonds showed significant price deviations, with some bonds experiencing over 10% price changes [16] - The convertible bond market saw major indices rise, with a total trading volume of 69.546 billion yuan [18] - U.S. Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 10-year yield increasing to 4.51% [20] - Major European economies saw a decline in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield down to 2.56% [23]

证 券 研 究 报 告 定价锚回归，及锋而试的顺风期 ——2025年下半年债市展望 证券分析师： 黄伟平 A0230524110002 栾强 A0230524110003 张杰 A0230524050002 徐亚 A0230524060002 杨雪芳 A0230524120003 张晋源 A0230525040001 研究支持： 王哲一 A0230123100001 2025.06.09 主要内容 ◼ 引言：与2024年的单边牛市不同，2025年债券已经进入"低利率+利利差+高波动"的状态。告别单边牛市思维，展望下半年，债 券市场可能出现2个特征：1）定价锚回归：从政策利率看资金，资金定价债券；2）6-8月份可能是个不错的及锋而试的顺风期。 ◼ 2025年债券市场运行新特征：1）央行政策利率成为资金市场底部，宏观审慎管理下资金利率曾一度呈现加息效果。2）短债表现较 弱、受资金影响较大，长债波动放大把握难度较高。3）基本面整体平稳，但关税脉冲影响较大，股债市场受短期风险偏好影响较大。 ◼ 外需预期有反复，但债市主要定价内需而非外需。 ✓ 特里芬难题的核心在于，美元信用全球性和贸易逆差长期并存。关税只是表象，更为 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For credit bonds, continue to focus on coupon hunting and maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [8][9][10] - For convertible bonds, the sentiment is weak, and it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11][32] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Credit & Convertible Bond Market Observation and Thinking 3.1.1 Credit Bonds - From June 2nd to June 8th, the primary issuance of credit bonds was 273.7 billion yuan, with a slight increase compared to the previous period. The total repayment amount was 147.5 billion yuan, a reduction of about 1/3 compared to the previous period, resulting in a net inflow of 126.2 billion yuan. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week [8] - Short - term yields of each grade increased slightly by about 1bp, with higher - grade bonds having a larger increase. Long - term yields generally decreased by about 2bp. The risk - free yield curve shifted downward by 2 - 3bp. Short - duration spreads of each grade generally widened by about 4bp, while medium - and long - term spreads fluctuated within ±1bp. The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [9] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [9] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [9] - The bond market was stable last week, with a significant decline on Friday. The central bank has a strong willingness to support, but as spreads continue to narrow, the risk of credit bond valuation being affected by interest - rate bond fluctuations is increasing. It is not recommended to extend the duration at this stage, and it is advisable to maintain a 3 - year duration for in - depth exploration [10] 3.1.2 Convertible Bonds - Last week, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, the CSI 300 rose 0.88%, the CSI 1000 rose 2.10%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%, the STAR 50 rose 1.50%, and the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.30%. The daily average trading volume increased by 114.305 billion to 1.21 trillion yuan [11] - Convertible bonds significantly followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [11] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [11] 3.2 Credit Bond Review 3.2.1 Negative Information Monitoring - There were no bond defaults, overdue payments, downgrades of corporate or bond ratings, or overseas rating downgrades during the week from June 2nd to June 8th [12] - There were three major negative events: Guizhou Hongcai Investment Group Co., Ltd. was involved in two major lawsuits with a total execution amount of 604 million yuan; Huai'an Hongxin State - owned Assets Investment Management Co., Ltd. was sued for failing to pay project funds, with a total execution amount of 261 million yuan; and the credit enhancement measures of "H20 Shanshan 1" of Shanshan Group Co., Ltd. had significant adverse changes [13] 3.2.2 Primary Issuance - The primary issuance volume of credit bonds increased slightly compared to the previous period, while the maturity scale decreased significantly, resulting in a significant increase in the net inflow, exceeding 100 billion yuan. Only one credit bond was cancelled or postponed for issuance [13][14] - The primary issuance cost of medium - and low - grade bonds decreased significantly compared to the previous period, while that of high - grade bonds remained flat. The average coupon rates of AAA and AA+ grades were 1.99% and 2.18% respectively, remaining flat and decreasing by 27bp compared to the previous week. The frequency of newly issued AA/AA - grade bonds remained at a low level [14] 3.2.3 Secondary Trading - Credit bond valuations increased at the short - end and decreased at the long - end. The risk - free interest rate curve shifted downward. Short - end spreads of each grade widened significantly, while medium - and long - term spreads remained basically unchanged [16] - The term spreads of each grade continued to narrow by about 2bp, with the 5Y - 1Y spreads of medium - and high - grade bonds narrowing by 4 - 5bp. Most grade spreads narrowed by about 2bp, except for the 5Y AA - AAA spread which widened by 2bp [18] - In terms of urban investment bond credit spreads, most provincial credit spreads widened slightly by 1 - 2bp, with some high - valuation areas narrowing slightly. In terms of industrial bond credit spreads, industry spreads fluctuated narrowly but generally tended to widen, with a central value of about 1bp, and the real estate industry continued to widen by 14bp [21][23] - Affected by the fewer trading days during the holiday, the turnover rate decreased by 0.75pct to 1.01%. High - discount bonds were mainly real - estate enterprise bonds, with high - frequency and large - amplitude discount real - estate entities mainly involving Country Garden [24] 3.3 Convertible Bond Review 3.3.1 Market Overall Performance - From June 3rd to June 6th, the equity market fluctuated upward, with all major indices rising. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the household appliances, food and beverage, and transportation sectors led the losses [28] - Seven convertible bonds with the highest gains outperformed their underlying stocks. Jinling, Yitian, and Jingyuan Convertible Bonds led the gains, rising 24.42%, 14.89%, and 14.85% respectively. Tianyang, Jinling, and Limin Convertible Bonds were relatively active in trading [28] 3.3.2 Convertible Bonds Followed the Upward Trend, and the Wait - and - See Sentiment Remained - Convertible bonds followed the upward trend. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%, the parity center rose 0.7% to 96.0 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center decreased 1.0% to 26.0%. The daily average trading volume significantly increased to 64.075 billion yuan. Medium - and low - grade, high - price, and small - cap convertible bonds performed well, while high - grade and large - cap convertible bonds were relatively weak [32] - Currently in a data vacuum period, the equity market is expected to fluctuate. From a long - term perspective, the convertible bond market still has allocation demand, and the logic of scarce bottom - positions remains unchanged. The current convertible bond valuation is relatively neutral, not significantly overvalued. Considering potential credit risk disturbances in June, it is recommended to reserve positions and wait for right - side adding opportunities [32]