6月4日，A股市场整体表现积极，指数、板块及个股收涨居多。其中，消费和科技股表现亮眼，而通用航空和大飞机 板块则微跌。 今日震荡走强 A股继续震荡走高，沪指收涨0.42%报3376.2点，创业板指收涨1.11%报2024.93点。科创50、沪深300、上证50均微涨， 北证50涨逾1%。交易量微增，今日A股日成交额共计1.18万亿元。 A股共计3963只个股收涨，涨停股86只；1238只个股收跌，跌停股2只。 31个申万一级行业板块中，仅有交通运输、国防军工、公用事业板块微跌，其余飘红。消费、科技股表现亮眼，美容 护理、综合、纺织服饰板块涨幅均超过2%，通信、商贸零售、电子等板块涨幅超过1%。轻工制造板块掀起涨停潮， 嘉美包装（002969）等10只个股涨停，其中金陵体育（300651）20cm涨停。 | 名称 | ● | 涨幅% ↓ | 涨停家数 | 年初至今涨幅% | 5日涨幅% | 10日涨幅% | 下跌家数 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 昨日涨停 含- | 字 | 3.58 | 25 | 491.79 | 12.44 | 1 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Chinese market, U.S.-China trade relations, and various sectors including consumer goods, technology, and dividend stocks. Core Points and Arguments 1. **U.S.-China Tariff Concerns** The U.S. has increased tariff threats against China, particularly targeting AI and chip design software exports, which may disrupt trade negotiations and worsen U.S.-China relations [1][3][4] 2. **Short-term Tariff Impact** The likelihood of imposing new tariffs in the short term is low due to the U.S. retail sector's peak ordering season, with a 90-day grace period before any potential tariffs take effect. However, risks may rise post-grace period [5][6] 3. **Judicial Intervention in Trade** The U.S. judicial system's involvement in trade disputes may gradually reduce the extremity of tariff increases, indicating a potential shift in tariff authority back to Congress in the long term [6] 4. **Dividend Stocks in June** June typically sees seasonal pressure on dividend stocks due to profit-taking, leading to lower excess returns and win rates despite being a peak dividend distribution period [7][8] 5. **Long-term Outlook for Dividend Stocks** Despite short-term volatility, dividend stocks remain strategically significant in a low-interest-rate environment, with high dividend yields observed in indices [9] 6. **Focus on Emerging Consumption Sectors** The market is currently focused on service consumption, new consumption, and biomedicine, which are supported by policies and show strong performance. Notable companies in these sectors are less crowded, presenting investment opportunities [10][11] 7. **Weakness in Traditional Consumer Sectors** Traditional consumer sectors like home appliances and automobiles are underperforming due to declining consumer interest and the cessation of government subsidies, leading to concerns about their future growth [12][13] 8. **Technology Sector Trends** The technology sector is expected to rebound in the short term, with a long-term focus on significant capital expenditures and breakthroughs in areas like AI and robotics [14] 9. **Anti-Tariff Themes** The anti-tariff theme is performing steadily, with sectors like rare earths benefiting. The market is gradually desensitizing to tariff concerns, avoiding significant volatility [15] 10. **Recommended Industries** Key recommended industries include beauty care, biomedicine, computing, non-ferrous metals, social services, agriculture, defense, and retail, all of which are seen as having good growth potential [16][17] 11. **Market Outlook** The market is expected to remain in a narrow fluctuation pattern, supported by domestic demand resilience, with a focus on service consumption and emerging sectors as key growth drivers [18]

The provided content does not contain any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it include their construction processes, formulas, evaluations, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, ETF premiums/discounts, institutional activity, and other market-related data. There are no references to quantitative models or factors in the provided text.

6月4日，A股市场整体上涨。截至收盘，上证指数收报3376.2点，上涨0.42%；深证成指收报10144.58点，上涨 0.87%；创业板指收报2024.93点，上涨1.11%。两市合计成交11530.47亿元，较上一交易日增加116.38亿元。 1. 两市全天主力资金净流出近3亿元 | | | 沪深两市最近五个交易日主力资金流向情况(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | | 净流入金额 开盘净流入 | 人得发起 | 超大单净买入 | | 2025-6-4 | -2. 61 | -33.75 | -0. 29 | 23. 41 | | 2025-6-3 | -91. 89 | -39. 38 | -8. 11 | -25. 46 | | 2025-5-30 | -352. 62 | -158. 05 | -37.83 | -193. 19 | | 2025-5-29 | 74. 33 | -19.58 | 23.89 | 121. 48 | | 2025-5-28 | -185. 39 | -73. 21 | -22. 45 | -57. 58 | ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Multi-Factor Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates four categories of factors: technical, capital flow, fundamental, and analyst expectations, to evaluate Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks[38][39] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. Select Hong Kong Stock Connect constituent stocks as the sample universe 2. Construct four categories of factors: - **Technical factors**: Indicators derived from price and volume data - **Capital flow factors**: Metrics based on fund flow data, such as net inflow - **Fundamental factors**: Metrics like valuation ratios (e.g., PE, PB) and profitability indicators (e.g., ROE) - **Analyst expectation factors**: Metrics based on analyst ratings and earnings forecasts 3. Combine these factors into a composite score for each stock 4. Rank stocks based on their composite scores and select the top 20 stocks to form the portfolio[38][39][40] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance in historical backtesting, with significant excess returns over the benchmark[38][40] 2. Model Name: Hong Kong Stock Preferred 20 Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: This portfolio is constructed monthly by selecting the top 20 stocks with the highest composite scores from the multi-factor model, using equal weighting[40] - **Model Construction Process**: 1. At the end of each month, rank stocks based on their composite scores from the multi-factor model 2. Select the top 20 stocks 3. Allocate equal weights to each stock in the portfolio 4. Use the Hong Kong Composite Index (HKD, 930930.CSI) as the benchmark for performance comparison[40] - **Model Evaluation**: The portfolio has shown robust performance over the long term, with a high excess annualized return and a stable risk-return profile[40][44] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Hong Kong Stock Multi-Factor Model - **Excess Annualized Return**: 13.3% (2015.1–2025.5)[40][44] - **Excess Annualized Volatility**: 13.4%[44] - **Excess Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0[44] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 18.2%[44] 2. Hong Kong Stock Preferred 20 Portfolio - **May 2025 Monthly Return**: 2.44%[40] - **May 2025 Excess Return**: -2.36% (Benchmark return: 4.80%)[40] - **Excess Annualized Return**: 13.3% (2015.1–2025.5)[40][44] - **Excess Annualized Volatility**: 13.4%[44] - **Excess Sharpe Ratio**: 1.0[44] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 18.2%[44] --- Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Technical Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Derived from price and volume data to capture market trends and momentum[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD 2. Normalize and rank the indicators across the stock universe 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite technical factor score[38][39] 2. Factor Name: Capital Flow Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on fund flow data to identify stocks with strong capital inflows[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Measure net fund inflows for each stock 2. Normalize and rank the net inflow data 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite capital flow factor score[38][39] 3. Factor Name: Fundamental Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Focused on valuation and profitability metrics to identify undervalued stocks with strong fundamentals[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Calculate valuation ratios (e.g., PE, PB) and profitability indicators (e.g., ROE) 2. Normalize and rank these metrics across the stock universe 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite fundamental factor score[38][39] 4. Factor Name: Analyst Expectation Factors - **Factor Construction Idea**: Based on analyst ratings and earnings forecasts to capture market sentiment and expectations[38][39] - **Factor Construction Process**: 1. Collect analyst ratings and earnings forecast data 2. Normalize and rank the data 3. Combine the normalized scores into a composite analyst expectation factor score[38][39] --- Factor Backtesting Results 1. Technical Factors - **Performance**: Demonstrated strong predictive power in identifying stocks with upward momentum[38][39] 2. Capital Flow Factors - **Performance**: Effective in capturing stocks with significant fund inflows, indicating strong market interest[38][39] 3. Fundamental Factors - **Performance**: Successfully identified undervalued stocks with robust financial performance[38][39] 4. Analyst Expectation Factors - **Performance**: Provided valuable insights into market sentiment and future earnings potential[38][39]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily focus on the domestic travel and tourism industry in China, highlighting various metrics related to passenger flow, tourism data, and consumer spending during recent holidays. Key Points Domestic Travel Data - Total cross-regional passenger flow reached 657 million, averaging 219 million daily, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1] - Railway passenger numbers totaled 47.108 million, averaging 15.7027 million daily, reflecting a 2.3% year-on-year growth [1] - Civil aviation recorded 5.601 million passengers, averaging 186,700 daily, with a 1.22% year-on-year increase [1] - Road travel accounted for 600 million passengers, averaging 200 million daily, showing a 3.14% year-on-year growth [1] - Waterway travel saw 2.881 million passengers, averaging 960,000 daily, which is a decline of 1.65% year-on-year [1] - Average economy class ticket prices for the upcoming May Day holiday are expected to decrease by 10.4% compared to 2019 and by 25% compared to 2023 [1] Provincial and Scenic Area Tourism Data - Key scenic areas experienced varied growth rates due to weather impacts and base differences: - Laoshan received over 117,000 visitors, up 12.6% year-on-year [3] - Hongcun saw a decline in visitors to 29,125, down 14.16%, with ticket revenue dropping 35.46% [3] - Xidi had 10,812 visitors, down 7.67%, with ticket revenue decreasing by 12.37% [3] - Beijing's parks received 1.2558 million visitors, remaining stable year-on-year [3] - Notable provincial data includes: - Sichuan's A-level scenic areas welcomed 14.2915 million visitors, with ticket revenue of 109.1803 million, marking a 13.02% increase in visitor numbers [3] - Hunan reported 17.2881 million visitors, up 12.56%, with per capita spending increasing by 16.11% [3] - Shanghai received 6.4808 million visitors, with total tourism spending of 12.477 billion, a 3.30% increase [3] - Beijing's total visitor count was 8.211 million, with tourism spending of 10.77 billion, up 6.7% [3] - Guangdong saw a 20.6% increase in visitors, totaling 23.21 million, with tourism revenue up 25.6% [4] OTA Booking Trends - OTA platforms indicate that cultural experiences, short trips, and summer vacations are key growth drivers for domestic travel [6] - Family-oriented travel is prominent, with nearly 90% of the top 50 scenic spots being family-friendly, and family orders constituting 25% of total travel orders [6] - Theme park ticket bookings surged by 127% year-on-year [6] - Booking trends show significant growth in domestic and international travel, with a 15% increase in outbound flight bookings [7] Local Consumption Data - In Beijing, ticket sales for performances reached 140 million, with a 130% increase in box office revenue year-on-year [10] - Retail sales in various cities showed positive growth, with Shanghai's consumption nearing 20 billion, up 4.1% from the previous year [10] - Meituan reported a 193% increase in "Dragon Boat Rice" orders in Guangdong and a 241% increase in specific regional delicacies during the holiday [11] Additional Insights - The overall outflow and inflow of people at national ports is expected to reach 2.15 million daily, a 12.2% increase compared to the previous year [8] - International flights are recovering, with daily operations reaching 1,659 flights, which is 87% of the 2019 level [8] - Hainan's airports are projected to handle 317,000 passengers, with a 2.5% year-on-year increase in passenger throughput [9] Conclusion - The domestic travel and tourism industry in China is showing signs of recovery and growth, with various regions and sectors experiencing different levels of performance. The data indicates a positive trend in consumer spending and travel activity, despite some challenges posed by weather conditions and other factors.

涨停股中，*ST万方、ST金鸿等14只股为ST股。连续涨停天数看，德邦股份已连收5个涨停板，连续涨 停板数量最多。从收盘涨停板封单量来看，御银股份最受资金追捧，收盘涨停板封单有9326.07万股， 其次是翠微股份、ST联合等，涨停板封单分别有3312.01万股、3249.08万股。以封单金额计算，御银股 份、合兴股份、翠微股份等涨停板封单资金较多，分别有6.50亿元、5.39亿元、4.10亿元。（数据宝） 两市涨停股一览 | 002798 | 帝欧家居 | 5.69 | 6.05 | 497.97 | 2833.47 | 轻工制造 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600259 | 广晟有色 | 47.30 | 8.55 | 56.98 | 2695.39 | 有色金属 | | 600561 | 江西长运 | 7.18 | 6.36 | 372.64 | 2675.57 | 交通运输 | | 000695 | 滨海能源 | 15.90 | 28.48 | 161.50 | 2567.85 | 电力设备 | | 605599 | 菜百股份 | 17. ...

2025 年 06 月 02 日 耐用消费产业行业研究 买入（维持评级） 行业周报 证券研究报告 国金证券研究所 分析师：赵中平（执业 S1130524050003） zhaozhongping＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：杨欣（执业 S1130522080010） yangxin1＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：王刚（执业 S1130524080001） wang_g＠gjzq.com.cn 分析师：张杨桓（执业 S1130522090001） zhangyanghuan＠gjzq.com.cn 消费中观策略&投资建议 ①基本面有向好变化的低位传统核心资产，资本市场逻辑是高低切，新消费已经将表观 30-60XPE 的高标估值体 系确立，传统核心资产的估值水位也有望在流动性宽松叠加公募基准欠配背景下向上修复，尤其是在地产高频数 据企稳经济有自发筑底倾向&传统消费 25Q2 开始财报基数下降景气度增速有自发回升趋势背景下，建议关注安踏 体育，雅迪控股，裕同科技等；②坚定持有兑现度较高的新消费龙头，建议关注泡泡玛特，康耐特光学等。预计 消费类资金有望向两个方向切换；③积极拥抱新消费赛道或具备新消费思维的传统 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market sentiment score has declined, indicating a bearish outlook for the market as it has ended its upward repair trend [1][4]. Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment structure indicator has shown significant fluctuations over the past five years, with a low position for most of 2023, only breaking above 2 in October 2024 [1]. - As of May 30, the market sentiment score was 2.5, down from 2.65 the previous week, suggesting a shift towards a bearish sentiment [1]. - The decline in sentiment is supported by a decrease in industry trading activity and a drop in the PCR combined with VIX indicators, reflecting increased uncertainty in fund sentiment [4][6]. Group 2: Industry Performance - The trading activity score across industries has significantly decreased, indicating a lack of investment themes and weak trends in industry performance [6][13]. - The overall trading volume in the A-share market has dropped, with a notable decline in the first three trading days of May, reaching a low of 1.16 trillion RMB on Friday [8]. - The industry performance shows that sectors like environmental protection, biomedicine, and national defense have maintained positive growth, while sectors like automobiles, electric equipment, and non-ferrous metals have seen significant declines [16][17]. Group 3: Short-term Trends - The short-term trend scoring model indicates that sectors such as computer, media, electronics, and biomedicine have shown significant upward trends, with the computer sector's score increasing by 22.22% [19][20]. - The model suggests that small-cap growth stocks are currently favored, with strong signals indicating a preference for this style despite a potential strengthening of value styles [21].

Core Viewpoint - Wuhan is positioning itself as a key strategic hub for innovation and economic development in central China, leveraging its educational resources, technological advancements, and transportation networks to drive growth and competitiveness in various industries [4][5][6]. Group 1: Technological Innovation - Wuhan's optical electronics industry has reached a scale of over 750 billion yuan, establishing a world-class industrial cluster and a supportive mechanism for original innovation [9]. - The high-tech enterprise count in Wuhan has surpassed 16,000, doubling in three years, indicating a robust growth in the technology sector [7]. - Huagong Technology has secured a project worth over 100 million USD for a heating component from a well-known European automotive company, showcasing the company's global market reach [6]. Group 2: Talent and Research Infrastructure - Wuhan is home to 92 universities and over 1.3 million students, providing a rich talent pool and top-tier research platforms that support innovation in high-tech enterprises [7]. - The establishment of the Jiufengshan Laboratory has created the largest and most advanced research and pilot platform for the global compound semiconductor industry, fostering collaboration among over 30 innovative companies [8]. Group 3: Trade and Logistics - Wuhan's import and export value reached 138.81 billion yuan in the first four months of the year, a year-on-year increase of 27.5%, highlighting its growing role in international trade [12]. - The city has developed a comprehensive transportation network, including rail and air hubs, enhancing its position as a logistics center that connects domestic and international markets [11]. Group 4: Business Environment and Ecosystem - The local government is actively improving the business environment by implementing policies that support high-quality development and innovation, such as the "technology vice president" initiative [15]. - Xiaomi's investment in a smart home appliance factory in Wuhan is part of a broader strategy to enhance supply chain efficiency by clustering with key suppliers in the region [15][16]. Group 5: Strategic Development Initiatives - Wuhan is promoting the integration of emerging industries and traditional sectors, focusing on the "light, chip, screen, terminal, and network" framework to drive economic growth [13]. - The city is also facilitating the return of entrepreneurs from Hubei, creating a favorable environment for investment and collaboration, with over 200 promotional events planned [16].