Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a high - level adjustment. Short - term tariff risks have subsided, but long - term gold has a bullish logic due to factors like the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping [1][2]. - Silver is under high - level pressure. It follows the adjustment of gold and copper. Although its fundamentals have little change, economic demand provides support, and its long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1]. - Copper is in a situation where bulls and bears are competing at a key psychological level. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and there is long - term confidence in copper [1][6]. - Zinc is under pressure and is expected to have a supply increase and demand decrease in the long - term. It is advisable to short on rallies [1][9]. - Lead is under pressure due to factors such as the slow recovery of domestic primary lead smelters, the resumption of production of secondary lead enterprises, and weak downstream consumption [1]. - Tin is under pressure as the domestic tin smelting industry is in a state of weak supply and demand, and terminal consumption has entered the off - season [1]. - Aluminum is under pressure because of high - level imports of overseas bauxite, inventory accumulation during the off - season, and a weakening开工率 in the aluminum processing industry [1][11]. - Nickel is weak. Overseas nickel ore prices are stable, but downstream stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still pressure during the terminal consumption off - season [1][13]. - Industrial silicon is in a correction due to factors such as a decline in the "anti - involution" trading sentiment and the impact of a limit - down in coking coal prices [1]. - Polysilicon is in high - level oscillation. The statement of "sales price not lower than cost" provides strong support, but the spot trading volume is limited [1]. - Lithium carbonate is in a weak downward trend. The overall inventory is accumulating, and the market sentiment may return to the fundamentals after reaching a peak [1][15]. Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **行情回顾**: Due to the agreement on tariffs between the US and Europe, the risk - aversion sentiment subsided, leading to an adjustment in both domestic and foreign gold and silver [2]. - **基本逻辑**: The US and the EU reached a trade agreement, and China and the US are in negotiations. The short - term tariff risk has subsided, but factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, accelerated debt issuance, central bank gold purchases, and global order reshaping support the long - term bullish logic of gold [2]. - **策略推荐**: Pay attention to the support around 760 for gold and 9050 for silver. Treat silver's short - term adjustment as a trading idea [3]. Copper - **行情回顾**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and rebounded, returning to the 79,000 - yuan mark [5]. - **产业逻辑**: The tight situation of copper concentrates persists. Although the production of electrolytic copper is increasing, the demand has mixed performances. There are concerns about the impact of a potential 50% import tariff on US copper in August on China's copper and copper product exports [5]. - **策略推荐**: The signing of the US - EU trade agreement and China - US negotiations have eased tariff concerns. The US dollar index has risen, putting pressure on copper prices. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the long - term outlook for copper is positive. The attention range for Shanghai copper is [78,000, 80,000] yuan/ton, and for London copper is [9,700, 9,900] US dollars/ton [6]. Zinc - **行情回顾**: Shanghai zinc fell under pressure [8]. - **产业逻辑**: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrates is abundant. Domestic new smelting capacities are being released, and the production of refined zinc is increasing. On the demand side, although the rebound of black steel prices has boosted galvanizing demand confidence, it is currently the off - season, and enterprise开工率 is weak [8]. - **策略推荐**: The cooling of the "anti - involution" sentiment, abundant supply, and inventory accumulation during the off - season have put pressure on zinc prices. In the long - term, supply will increase and demand will decrease. It is advisable to short on rallies. The attention range for Shanghai zinc is [22,400, 22,800] yuan/ton, and for London zinc is [2,650, 2,850] US dollars/ton [9]. Aluminum - **行情回顾**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina showed a downward trend [10]. - **产业逻辑**: For electrolytic aluminum, the domestic market sentiment has changed, production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. For alumina, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and attention should be paid to overseas bauxite changes [11]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to changes in aluminum ingot inventory. The main operating range for Shanghai aluminum is [20,000, 20,800] yuan/ton, and alumina is expected to be under pressure [11]. Nickel - **行情回顾**: Nickel prices weakened significantly, and stainless steel fell under pressure [12]. - **产业逻辑**: Overseas nickel ore prices are falling, and domestic nickel supply and demand are still weak. Stainless - steel production cuts have slowed, and there is still inventory pressure during the off - season [13]. - **策略推荐**: It is recommended to short on rallies for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [120,000, 123,000] yuan/ton [13]. Lithium Carbonate - **行情回顾**: The main contract LC2509 significantly reduced its positions and hit the limit - down [14]. - **产业逻辑**: The overall inventory is accumulating, and the price increase has led to inventory transfer from upstream to the middle. Although there are production cuts in some areas, the production still shows an upward trend. The new - energy vehicle market has a sales decline, and the "anti - involution" policy expectation has become a focus. The supply surplus for the whole year will narrow. The market may return to fundamentals after the sentiment peak [15]. - **策略推荐**: It is advisable to take a wait - and - see approach with the price range of [70,000, 73,000] yuan/ton [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper market is affected by macro - events such as the domestic Politburo meeting, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the US copper tariff. With a tight raw material supply and seasonal weak demand, copper prices are expected to be range - bound and weak [1]. - The aluminum market is influenced by the approaching trade agreement between the US and the EU and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot social inventory. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and with the approaching peak season for lead - acid batteries, there is an expectation of improved downstream procurement. If the inspection of smelters expands, prices may strengthen [4]. - Regarding zinc, in the long - term, zinc prices are bearish due to the abundant supply of zinc ore and the expected increase in zinc ingot production. In the short - term, there are still structural risks overseas and the price is affected by capital sentiment [6]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a certain range. Although there is an expectation of increased tin ore supply in the third and fourth quarters, the smelting end still faces raw material pressure, and downstream demand is mixed [7]. - Nickel prices are expected to decline further, as the short - term macro - environment cools, stainless - steel prices fall, and demand is weak [8]. - The price of lithium carbonate has decreased, and with the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to changes in the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. - For alumina, the pattern of over - capacity may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short at high prices considering the market sentiment [13]. - Stainless - steel prices have declined slightly, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. - The price of cast aluminum alloy is under upward pressure due to the off - season and weak supply - demand [16]. 3. Summary by Metals Copper - **Price**: LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9762/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79010 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper is 78200 - 79600 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $9650 - 9920/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 1075 to 1247400 tons, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory increased slightly. SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased to 1.8 million tons [1]. - **Market**: The spot premium in Shanghai decreased, and the downstream procurement improved; in Guangdong, the inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was weak [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum closed flat at $2631/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20660 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE aluminum is 20500 - 20800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $2610 - 2660/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased, and the SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased [3]. - **Market**: The trading volume in the spot market was low, and the market sentiment was affected by the approaching US - EU trade agreement [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index closed down 0.25% at 16914 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell to $2019/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and the LME lead inventory was 26.63 million tons [4]. - **Market**: The supply of lead ingots is marginally tightened, and the downstream demand is expected to improve [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index closed down 1.01% at 22638 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell to $2822.5/ton [6]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory continued to increase, and the LME zinc inventory was 11.58 million tons [6]. - **Market**: The supply of zinc ore is abundant, and the long - term zinc price is bearish. There are still structural risks overseas [6]. Tin - **Price**: SHFE tin closed down 1.50% at 267920 yuan/ton, and the spot tin price was 267000 - 269000 yuan/ton [7]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of tin ore is expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but the smelting end has raw material pressure. Domestic demand is weak, while overseas demand is strong due to AI [7]. - **Market**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the range of 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton domestically and $31000 - 33000/ton for LME tin [7]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices fell. The expected operating range for SHFE nickel is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $14500 - 16500/ton [8]. - **Market**: The demand for stainless steel is weak, and the price of nickel ore is expected to decline further [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.60%, and the LC2509 contract price decreased by 9.19% [10]. - **Market**: With the approaching earnings season of overseas mining companies, attention should be paid to the industrial chain and the commodity market [10]. Alumina - **Price**: The alumina index fell 5.22% to 3232 yuan/ton. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3050 - 3500 yuan/ton [13]. - **Market**: The over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change, and it is recommended to short at high prices [13]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12840 yuan/ton, down 1.46%. Spot prices declined slightly [15]. - **Inventory**: Futures inventory decreased, and social inventory decreased by 2.54% [15]. - **Market**: The short - term price is supported by the steel mill's price - holding policy, and the follow - up market depends on macro - news and downstream demand [15]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.55% to 20025 yuan/ton [16]. - **Inventory**: The domestic inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased [16]. - **Market**: The supply and demand are weak, and the price is under upward pressure [16].

Group 1 - International copper futures fell by 0.07%, while Shanghai copper rose by 0.04% [1] - Shanghai aluminum increased by 0.05%, and Shanghai zinc decreased by 0.31% [1] - Shanghai lead rose by 0.03%, whereas Shanghai nickel and tin both dropped by 0.58% [1] Group 2 - Alumina futures declined by 0.43%, while aluminum alloy increased by 0.10% [1] - Stainless steel futures fell by 0.46% [2]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Huafeng Aluminum Co., Ltd. has signed a significant raw material purchase contract with Shaanxi Youse Yulin New Materials Group, expected to generate over RMB 7.2 billion in total revenue from 2025 to 2029, involving the purchase of no less than 360,000 tons of production raw materials [1][2][4]. Transaction Overview - The contract stipulates that the buyer will purchase a minimum of 360,000 tons of production raw materials from the seller between 2025 and 2029, with prices determined by monthly market aluminum prices [1][2]. - The total estimated amount from the contract exceeds RMB 7.2 billion, meeting the disclosure standards set by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [1][2][4]. Approval Process - The contract was unanimously approved by the company's board of directors on July 28, 2025, and does not constitute a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring, thus not requiring shareholder meeting approval [2][3]. Counterparty Information - The seller, Shaanxi Youse Yulin New Materials Group, has a good credit status and does not have any related party relationships with the company [3][4]. Main Contract Terms - The contract involves the purchase of raw materials with specific quantities to be determined by monthly orders, and payment will be settled batch by batch [4][5]. - Both parties are required to fulfill their contractual obligations and bear corresponding liabilities for any breaches [4]. Impact on the Company - The contract is expected to enhance the company's long-term cooperation with upstream partners, ensuring stable procurement of raw materials, which aligns with the company's development strategy [2][4]. - Successful execution of the contract is anticipated to have a positive impact on the company's future performance [2][4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding the report industry investment ratings is provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report Copper - The market has a consensus on the subsequent interest - rate cut expectations in the US, but the timing of the cut is uncertain. In China, the spread of anti - involution sentiment is important for copper, and the policy's impact on smelting capacity clearance needs attention. The market's positive macro - sentiment boosts copper prices, but short - term sentiment ebbing risks should be noted. - On the fundamental side, copper demand weakens significantly as prices rebound, and combined with the traditional off - season effect, there is a short - term situation of weak supply and demand. However, China's macro - policies and low inventories support the copper price. After the 232 investigation, non - US electrolytic copper shows a pattern of "looser supply expectations and weaker actual demand", and copper pricing returns to macro trading. The short - term positive anti - involution macro - sentiment boosts prices, but a callback risk due to sentiment ebbing should be watched. The reference range for the main contract is 77,000 - 80,000 [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, the anti - involution policy brings expectations of capacity elimination and the risk of a squeeze due to a sharp reduction in warehouse receipts, which is beneficial to prices. But the rumor of large alumina plants'复产 also suppresses prices, and the market shows wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, the tight supply of bauxite in Guinea and low alumina futures warehouse receipts support price rebounds, and the basis weakens, reopening the spot - futures arbitrage window. In the medium term, due to limited backward capacity, the impact of anti - involution on the alumina industry is mainly emotional. The restored and newly - added production capacity will increase spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver is the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3,000 - 3,400, and risks such as Guinea's policy changes and anti - involution policy follow - up should be noted. - For aluminum, the domestic consumption - stimulating atmosphere and anti - involution sentiment support aluminum prices, but the weakened Fed interest - rate cut expectations and tariff uncertainties are short - term negatives. On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio leads to a bottom - probing trend in inventories. On the demand side, construction and real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports decline, and orders weaken after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, with only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remaining resilient. In general, under the pressure of inventory accumulation expectations, weakening demand, and macro - disturbances, the short - term price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels, and the reference range for the main contract next week is 20,200 - 21,000 [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The recycled aluminum alloy market remained in a situation of weak supply and demand last week, with more prominent demand - side contradictions. Market transactions were mainly based on the strategy of spot - futures traders stocking up and hedging on the Shanghai Aluminum Futures to narrow the aluminum - alloy price spread, and terminal transactions were sluggish. The social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, and some areas were close to full capacity. On the supply side, low - priced overseas goods continued to impact the market; on the demand side, it was continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season, with weak orders in the terminal automotive industry. Downstream die - casting enterprises generally had a pessimistic view of the future market, maintained a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy, and had a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in light market transactions. The subsequent weak demand situation will continue to suppress price increases. It is expected that the market will show a weak - side oscillatory trend, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 19,400 - 20,200 [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc ore is expected to remain loose, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,800 yuan/ton. However, the global zinc ore production in May and China's domestic zinc ore production growth in June were both lower than expected. The improvement in refined zinc supply lags behind that of the ore end, but with the TC in an upward cycle and the continuous repair of smelting profits, smelters' enthusiasm for resuming production is high, and the smelter operating rate is at a high level in recent years, stronger than the seasonal norm. The expectation of loose refined zinc supply still exists. - On the demand side, the strengthening of the zinc price on the futures market significantly suppresses demand, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. Among the three primary processing industries, only the galvanizing sector performs well due to the black - series anti - involution policy, while the die - casting alloy and zinc oxide industries enter the seasonal off - season, and demand weakens. The center of the spot premium continues to decline, and the low absolute inventory level provides price support, but domestic social inventories may enter an inventory - accumulation cycle. In the short term, under the background of China's anti - involution macro - policy, the positive macro - sentiment leads to a rebound in zinc prices, but the impact of the zinc consumption off - season and the expectation of loose supply are insufficient to support continuous price increases. A callback risk after the sentiment ebbs should be noted, and low inventories provide price support. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will continue to oscillate in the short term, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 [10]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual tin ore supply remains tight, and smelter processing fees continue to be at a low level. In June, China's tin ore imports remained at a low level, and the resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, with shipments expected to start around the end of August. On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic rush - installation period, photovoltaic tin - strip orders in East China declined, and the operating rates of some producers decreased. In South China, the electronic consumption entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises declined significantly. Considering the subsequent impact of US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of China's consumption - stimulating policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. Recently, the market sentiment is positive, and combined with the continuous decrease in LME tin inventories, the tin price is strongly oscillating. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to changes in macro - sentiment and the progress of Myanmar's resumption of production [14]. Nickel - Last week, the Shanghai nickel futures market showed a strong - side oscillatory trend, and the central price of the main contract increased. The macro - sentiment provided a boost, while the fundamentals changed little. The Fed's attitude is currently wait - and - see, and the first interest - rate cut is expected to be in September. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives in Stockholm next week to discuss whether to extend the August 12 deadline. In China, the anti - involution atmosphere is strong, which boosts commodities. - At the industrial level, the spot price increased, and the spot trading volume of refined nickel was average last week. The premiums of various brands of resources remained stable. Recently, the nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is still +24. The shortage of nickel ore supply has been alleviated due to production cuts at some smelters in Indonesian industrial parks, and the supply is currently relatively loose. The nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement, and terminal demand is relatively weak. The nickel sulfate price is relatively stable, but the downstream ternary materials industry has a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain at a high level, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories remain stable. Overall, the positive market sentiment boosts the commodity sector, the nickel fundamentals change little, and the cost support for refined nickel weakens. The medium - term supply is expected to remain loose, which restricts the upside potential of prices. In the short term, the market is expected to adjust within a range, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 120,000 - 128,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations [16]. Stainless Steel - Last week, the stainless - steel futures market showed an overall strong - side oscillatory trend, and the spot price increased slightly. The macro - sentiment boosted the market, and spot - end agents and traders mostly maintained stable prices for sales, but market transactions were still average. In the macro - aspect, the US inflation expectation is currently mild, and overseas tariff risks still exist. The Fed's attitude is wait - and - see, while the domestic atmosphere is positive, with a series of favorable policies introduced, and the government's continuous increase in infrastructure investment boosts market confidence. - The nickel ore price has weakened. Philippine nickel ore resources for August are gradually being sold, and the 1.3W FOB price of mines is 31, down from the previous period. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in July (Phase II) decreased by 0.03 - 0.05 US dollars, basically the same as the previous period, and the mainstream domestic trade premium is +24, and the supply is currently relatively loose. Driven by the improved sentiment, the nickel - iron price has improved, and iron - plant quotes are mainly concentrated at 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold), and most long - term contracts are at the average price level. Some Indonesian nickel - iron production lines have switched to producing ferronickel, but the pressure of nickel - iron over - supply still exists. Stainless - steel mill maintenance has led to a decrease in supply, but the actual production reduction of steel mills is less than expected, and normal production is maintained during the postponed period, so the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to relieve. Terminal demand is relatively weak. Due to the plum - rain season and continuous high - temperature weather, the recovery of manufacturing orders is slow, and procurement is mainly for rigid - demand restocking. Traders have more room for price negotiation but still struggle to increase trading volume. This year, the reduction of stainless - steel social inventories has been slow, and warehouse receipts have continued to decrease. Overall, recently, the market has been mainly driven by policies and macro - sentiment, and the spot - demand drive on the fundamentals is not obvious. In the short term, the market is expected to oscillate strongly, and the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy trends and the supply - demand rhythm [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Last week, the lithium carbonate futures market rose significantly. The results of the Jiangxi mining - right approval are still to be verified, and some Qinghai salt - lake production capacities are at risk of reduction or suspension due to over - mining, increasing the volatility at the ore end. Coupled with the overall anti - involution background, the commodity expectations are boosted, and the market sentiment is positive. As of the close on July 25, the main contract 2509 closed at 80,520 yuan/ton. The lithium - ore price has accelerated its rise, and supply remains sufficient. Last week's production data decreased slightly. Demand is relatively stable, the seasonal characteristics are less obvious, battery - cell orders are okay, and the material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expected. However, due to the off - season and the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand is difficult to be significantly boosted. The entire industry chain is in an inventory - accumulation state, and the inventory - accumulation speed slowed down last week. The high - level inventory of upstream smelters is being reduced, while the inventory in other downstream trading links continues to accumulate. The fundamental logic has not changed, but in the short term, the combination of macro - boosting and news - uncertainty dominates the market trend. Funds are concentrated in the market for trading, and the market atmosphere is gradually pricing in the balance adjustment after the supply reduction or suspension. The trading core has shifted to the ore end. Recently, there are many market variables, which may amplify market fluctuations. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is driven by funds, and there are many unverified news items. It is recommended to be cautious in unilateral trading and wait and see. Attention should be paid to changes in macro - expectations and supply adjustments [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price is 79,450 yuan/ton, down 0.43% from the previous day; the refined - scrap price difference is 841 yuan/ton, down 35.54% from the previous day; the LME 0 - 3 spread is - 53.68 US dollars/ton, down 3.76 US dollars from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 483 yuan/ton, down 9.52 yuan from the previous day; the Yangshan copper premium (warehouse receipt) is 50 US dollars/ton, up 2.04% from the previous day [1]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is - 80 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is - 40 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 50 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the electrolytic copper production was 1.1349 million tons, down 0.30% from the previous month; the import volume was 300,500 tons, up 18.74% from the previous month. The domestic mainstream port copper - concentrate inventory was 560,900 tons, down 23.23% from the previous week; the electrolytic - copper rod operating rate was 69.37%, down 4.85 percentage points from the previous week; the recycled - copper rod operating rate was 27.31%, up 1.86 percentage points from the previous week. The domestic social inventory was 114,200 tons, down 20.31% from the previous week; the bonded - area inventory was 82,200 tons, up 4.31% from the previous week; the SHFE inventory was 73,400 tons, down 13.17% from the previous week; the LME inventory was 128,500 tons, up 2.97% from the previous day; the COMEX inventory was 247,900 short tons, up 0.96% from the previous day; the SHFE warehouse receipt was 16,100 tons, down 96.72% from the previous day [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spread**: SMM A00 aluminum price is 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.29% from the previous day; the import profit and loss is - 1,677 yuan/ton, down 100.8 yuan from the previous day; the Shanghai - London ratio is 7.85, down 0.01 from the previous day [4]. - **Monthly Spread**: The 2508 - 2509 spread is 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous day; the 2509 - 2510 spread is 35 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2510 - 2511 spread is 65 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, the alumina production was 7.2581 million tons, down 0.19% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.609 million tons, down 3.22% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 192,400 tons, down 13.89% from the previous month; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 19,600 tons, down 39.69% from the previous month. The aluminum - profile operating rate was 50.50%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - cable operating rate was 61.60%, down 0.65% from the previous month; the aluminum - plate and strip operating rate was 63.20%, unchanged from the previous month; the aluminum - foil operating rate was 69.60%, unchanged from the previous month; the primary aluminum - alloy operating rate was 54.00%, unchanged from the previous month. The Chinese electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 510,000 tons, up 3.66% from the previous day; the LME inventory was 451,000 tons, up 0.61% from the previous day [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spread**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price is 20,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the 2511 - 2512 spread is 40 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day; the 2512

Group 1 - The company is a leading domestic producer of electrolytic aluminum and coal, established in 1998, with a significant production capacity of 1.7 million tons/year for electrolytic aluminum and 12.86 billion tons of coal reserves [1] - The company benefits from a complete industrial chain integration, enhancing its profitability as electrolytic aluminum prices continue to rise and new production capacities come online [1][2] - The company has a strong coal production capacity, with 3.45 million tons/year of smokeless coal and 5.1 million tons/year of lean coal, positioning it as a key supplier for metallurgical enterprises [3] Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum supply is constrained by domestic capacity limits and ongoing "dual carbon" policies, which are expected to maintain upward pressure on aluminum prices in the medium to long term [2] - The company’s operations in Xinjiang benefit from abundant coal resources, resulting in lower production costs compared to industry standards, thus enhancing profitability [2] - The company is expanding its aluminum foil production capacity, with a new project expected to come online by 2025, which will significantly increase its production capabilities [3] Group 3 - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the cost advantages of its dual-base electrolytic aluminum production in Yunnan and Xinjiang, along with the potential growth in the aluminum foil market [4] - Forecasted net profits for the company are projected to increase from 5.2 billion yuan in 2025 to 7 billion yuan in 2027, indicating strong growth potential [4]

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/28 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/21 215 848 84556 28177 -44.80 476.03 49.0 66.0 -66.96 122075 12575 2025/07/22 250 794 84556 25507 76.62 427.41 49.0 66.0 -68.24 124850 12250 2025/07/23 180 784 84556 15535 -263.59 309.62 49.0 66.0 -52.36 124825 17525 2025/07/24 150 717 84556 16183 -630.69 18.05 49.0 66.0 -49.92 124775 19850 2025/07/25 125 434 73423 16133 -722.84 151.43 50.0 67.0 -53.68 128475 18850 变化 -25 -283 ...

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The commodity market has seen a surge in capital, reaching 778.3 billion yuan, the highest since 2014, with coking coal and lithium carbonate futures exceeding 10 billion yuan for the first time, indicating increased speculative activity amid market volatility [1] - The A-share market's non-ferrous metal sector experienced a net capital outflow of 6.911 billion yuan on July 25, with significant sell-offs in Northern Rare Earth and leading companies like Tianqi Lithium and Zhongtung High-tech [5][6] - The strong rise of the US dollar, reaching a three-month high of 104.5, has led to a decline in the attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars, causing widespread price drops across industrial metals [8][10] Group 2: Corporate Strategies - Companies are adopting hedging strategies to manage raw material costs amid price volatility, such as a copper processing plant in Jiangsu locking in prices through futures contracts and reallocating 20% of production capacity to high-demand copper rods [2] - Lead-acid battery manufacturers are seizing low-price opportunities to stockpile lead, with LME lead inventories declining for five consecutive weeks, reflecting strong industry demand for bottom-fishing [2] Group 3: Price Movements - In the precious metals market, silver prices plummeted by 2.44% to $38.33 per ounce, while gold fell by 0.97% to $3,338 per ounce, driven by rising US Treasury yields and reduced industrial demand for silver [7] - Industrial metals faced significant declines, with tin dropping by $880 per ton to $34,140 due to increased LME inventories and reduced semiconductor orders, while nickel fell below $15,230 per ton amid rumors of increased Indonesian nickel exports [8] Group 4: Policy Impacts - The domestic futures market for lithium carbonate saw a dramatic increase, with main contracts hitting 80,520 yuan per ton, contrasting with a backdrop of declining international metal prices, highlighting the influence of policy interventions on market dynamics [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry and specific companies within the sector [6]. Core Views - The report highlights a positive outlook for industrial metals driven by domestic policies aimed at reducing competition and boosting infrastructure investment, alongside U.S. fiscal expansion and ongoing interest rate cuts [2][3]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium and cobalt, are expected to see price increases due to supply disruptions and strong demand from the new energy sector [3]. - Precious metals are favored due to heightened demand for gold as a safe haven amid global trade tensions and ongoing central bank purchases [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The report notes that industrial metal prices are rising due to domestic "anti-involution" policies and infrastructure investment, with copper prices experiencing short-term fluctuations due to trade changes [2]. - Key statistics include a weekly increase in aluminum prices by 1.22% and copper prices by 1.07%, while zinc prices rose by 2.65% [11]. - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining [2]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rebounding significantly due to supply concerns from regions like Jiangxi and Qinghai, with expectations for continued price increases [3]. - Cobalt prices are also anticipated to rise due to raw material shortages and increased demand as the market recovers from a low trading volume [3]. - Recommended companies in this sector include Huayou Cobalt and Zangge Mining [3]. Precious Metals - The report emphasizes the increasing demand for gold driven by global trade uncertainties and central bank purchases, predicting a long-term upward trend in gold prices [4]. - Gold prices have shown a weekly increase of 0.68%, while silver prices rose by 2.13% [11]. - Recommended companies include Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold [4].

有色金属周度报告 新纪元期货研究 20250725 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 国内主要金属现货价格走势 | 品种 | | | 期货主力合约收盘价格 | | | | 现货价格 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 主力合约 | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.25 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | 现货指标 | 2025.7.18 | 2025.7.25 | 周变动 | 周涨跌幅 | | 铜 | CU2509 | 78440 | 79250 | 810 | 1.03% | 平均价:1#铜:上海现货 | 78620 | 79810 | 1190 | 1.51% | | 铝 | AL2509 | 20510 | 20760 | 250 | 1.22% | 平均价:A00铝:上海现货 | 20690 | 20710 | 20 | 0.10% | | 锌 | ZN2509 | 22295 | 23015 | 720 | 3.23% | 平均价:0#锌:上海现货 | 22350 | 22900 | 5 ...