Group 1 - The main consumption index (000932) increased by 0.44% as of July 11, 2025, with significant gains from stocks like Luzhou Laojiao (000568) up 2.09% and Wuliangye (000858) up 1.40% [3] - The major consumption ETF (159672) achieved a four-day consecutive increase, rising 0.53% and reporting a latest price of 0.77 yuan, with a weekly cumulative increase of 0.79% [3] - The liquidity of the major consumption ETF showed a turnover rate of 4.44% with a transaction volume of 3.36 million yuan, and the average daily transaction volume over the past year was 4.96 million yuan [3] Group 2 - Tianfeng Securities noted that higher summer temperatures across China are expected to boost beer consumption, with long-term growth anticipated from consumer policies and adjustments to alcohol regulations [4] - The major consumption ETF saw a scale increase of 112.25 million yuan over the past week, ranking second among comparable funds [4] - As of July 10, 2025, the major consumption ETF's net value increased by 5.19% over the past year, with a maximum monthly return of 24.35% since inception [4] Group 3 - The management fee for the major consumption ETF is 0.50%, and the custody fee is 0.10%, which are the lowest among comparable funds [5] - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the major consumption index is 18.86, indicating a valuation below 92.49% of the historical data over the past year [5] - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the major consumption index accounted for 67.93% of the total, including companies like Yili (600887) and Kweichow Moutai (600519) [5]

Core Viewpoint - Both Yanjing Beer and Zhujiang Beer reported positive growth in their performance for the first half of 2025, but foreign capital's attitudes towards them differ significantly, indicating varied investment signals [2][3]. Group 1: Performance Overview - Yanjing Beer is expected to see a net profit increase for the first half of 2025, with foreign capital increasing its holdings by 1,794.37 million shares in 2025 [3]. - Zhujiang Beer also reported growth, but foreign capital reduced its holdings by 1,776.49 million shares in the second quarter, a decrease of over 50% [3][4]. - Zhujiang Beer's stock price rose by 13.7% in the second quarter, outperforming Yanjing Beer, raising questions about the significant sell-off by foreign capital [4]. Group 2: Investment Behavior - Foreign capital's operations regarding Zhujiang Beer have been highly flexible, primarily engaging in wave trading, while maintaining stable holdings in Yanjing Beer [6]. - In the second quarter of 2023, after a year of declining stock prices, Zhujiang Beer experienced a rebound, prompting foreign capital to reduce holdings by 534 million shares [6]. - In the first quarter of 2024, foreign capital purchased 2,134 million shares of Zhujiang Beer, but chose to significantly reduce holdings in the second quarter as the stock price increased [8]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Yanjing Beer's strong performance is driven by a more than 30% year-on-year increase in sales of its core product, U8, while Zhujiang Beer's growth is heavily reliant on the South China market, which accounts for over 90% of its sales [8]. - The overall beer industry has shown a recovery in demand, with domestic beer production increasing by 2.9% year-on-year from April to May 2025 [8]. - The smaller market capitalization of Zhujiang Beer leads to greater stock price volatility, resulting in a more agile investment approach from institutional funds [9]. Group 4: Institutional Interest - Following the release of Yanjing Beer's performance forecast for the first half of 2025, several securities firms and private equity funds showed strong interest, conducting consecutive days of research on the company [10][12]. - Notable institutions involved in the research include Shenwan Hongyuan, Northeast Securities, and various funds such as Huaxia Fund and E Fund [12][14]. Group 5: Strategic Initiatives - Yanjing Beer is implementing a large product strategy centered around U8, focusing on product innovation and brand influence to enhance market share [14]. - The company is also pursuing a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy to cater to younger consumers, leveraging synergies in production and supply chains [14]. - Analysts expect Yanjing Beer to maintain strong profit growth, driven by the expansion of U8 and operational efficiency improvements [15][16].

Core Insights - The 2024 Beer and Food Carnival in Qingdao's West Coast New Area is centered around "beer + food + culture," creating a comprehensive consumption scene that integrates various sectors [2][4] - The event has achieved an average daily foot traffic of over 30,000, leading to a more than 40% year-on-year increase in sales for surrounding restaurants, accommodations, and retail [2] Scene Upgrade - The carnival has transformed from a "single festival" to an "immersive experience," utilizing a main venue and extending activities to a 3-kilometer radius, creating a consumption matrix [2] - The main venue features a 2,000 square meter craft beer pavilion with over 300 unique beers and local delicacies, while sub-venues include night markets and cultural workshops [2] Business Integration - The event has sparked a "festival economy," with local enterprises launching products like "beer + seafood" meal kits, achieving daily sales exceeding 200,000 yuan [4] - The introduction of a "transparent factory" tour at Qingdao Beer No. 2 Factory has tripled industrial tourism orders, while over 20 e-commerce platforms have joined to promote local products [4] Long-term Empowerment - To avoid post-event decline, the town is investing 20 million yuan in infrastructure improvements and has launched a three-year action plan to enhance consumption scenes [5] - The "Boli Beer Food Season" IP will continue to operate, collaborating with other festivals to create a year-round consumption ecosystem [5] - The carnival serves as a catalyst for consumption and a new brand for showcasing the city, contributing to high-quality regional economic development [5]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The market is currently influenced by positive factors such as the 3D benefit resonance, favorable domestic and international macro environments, and improved China-US relations. Investor sentiment is high, leading to a total market turnover of 1.5 trillion [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - The market has seen significant gains recently, with a need for correction due to the previous strong performance. Over 80% of stocks are above the 60-week moving average, indicating a warning signal for potential pullbacks [3][4]. - The largest risk identified is the structural issues arising from excessive prior gains, rather than systemic risks. The market outlook remains optimistic, with opportunities for low-position investments during corrections [5][6]. - July's investment opportunities are expected to focus on the upcoming Politburo meeting and mid-year earnings reports. Policies may target issues such as insufficient domestic demand, weak consumption, low prices, and overcapacity [6][7]. Key Sectors and Themes - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to focus on the photovoltaic and lithium battery industries. The approach to these policies may vary, with market-driven solutions posing challenges for the photovoltaic sector, while administrative measures could benefit it [6][7]. - Consumer-related policies, including childcare subsidies, are anticipated to positively impact consumption-related industries [6][7]. - Strong performing sectors in the first half of the year include computing power, gaming, wind power, aquaculture, and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are highlighted as areas of focus [6][7]. - Seasonal themes due to hot summer weather may present investment opportunities in electricity demand, low coal prices, and products like beer and tea [3][7]. Additional Important Points - The market is expected to continue its upward trend, supported by historical weak dollar opportunities, capital market policy support, and liquidity easing [2][3]. - The potential for a short-term rebound in the dollar and ongoing tariff negotiations could exert pressure on the market, but these are not seen as critical risks [3][4].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Home Appliance Industry**: The home appliance industry is experiencing a shift in production to Vietnam due to tariff advantages and the U.S. imposing tariffs on Chinese goods. Companies like Ecovacs, Roborock, and Dechang have established factories in Vietnam, while Midea and Zhaochi are expanding their production lines there [1][3]. - **Pharmaceutical Industry**: The innovative drug sector is a focal point, with business development (BD) generating significant cash flow, which is being reinvested into research and development. Companies like Baicheng Pharmaceutical and Tigermed are highlighted for their potential in this area [1][5]. Key Insights - **Tariff Impact**: The U.S. has a 20% tariff agreement with Vietnam, while other Southeast Asian countries face tariffs above 30%. This makes Vietnam an attractive location for production, allowing companies to benefit from lower tariffs when exporting to the U.S. [2]. - **Domestic Market Strength**: The domestic home appliance market remains robust, with strong growth post-618 promotion. The air conditioning sector is seeing high e-commerce growth rates, supported by national subsidy policies [1][4]. - **Expected Performance**: Companies in the export chain, particularly leading firms, are expected to see clear performance growth as the second quarter may represent a bottom for these companies [3]. Additional Observations - **Consumer Electronics**: Companies like Ecovacs and Roborock are well-positioned due to their production capabilities and supply chain stability in Vietnam. The upcoming Black Friday and Christmas shopping seasons are expected to boost demand [3]. - **Two-Wheeler Market**: The two-wheeler market is projected to see significant growth, with Yadea expected to achieve a 50-60% increase in July. The market is benefiting from low base effects and policies encouraging trade-in and replenishment [10]. - **Pork Farming Sector**: The pork farming sector is currently in a cyclical downturn, with recommendations for companies with cost advantages like Muyuan Foods and Wen's Foodstuffs. Supply pressures are expected to increase in the second half of the year [12][13]. - **Pet Food Sector**: The pet food sector has seen growth in domestic sales, driven by local brands innovating and expanding their channels. Despite challenges from trade conflicts, companies are adapting by relocating production [11]. Recommendations - **Investment Focus**: Investors are advised to focus on companies with strong domestic performance and export potential, such as Ecovacs, Roborock, Hisense, TCL, and Haier [1][4]. - **Emerging Opportunities**: Companies like Jeya and Yuanfei Pet are expected to outperform due to market share gains and replenishment cycles in the third quarter [8][9]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the dynamics within the home appliance and pharmaceutical industries, as well as other relevant sectors.

中流击水，革故鼎新——食品行业 2025 年度中期投资策 略 20250710 摘要 白酒行业正经历深度调整，供需关系变化显著，需求端升级与降级并存， 酒企主动调整供给节奏以适应市场新变化，产品和量价策略面临深刻变 革，建议关注产品结构均衡、库存健康的企业。 大众品领域重回渠道为王时代，新渠道如会员超市、零食量贩和直播电 商颠覆传统渠道，提供性价比更高的消费选择，实现结构性增长；新产 品如休闲磨鱼等细分行业创新迭代，实现高速成长。 白酒库存周期影响企业报表，当前处于主动去库存阶段，收入增速探底， 企业对库存和市场秩序管理更加科学，高端酒价格承压，中高档产品保 持消费升级状态，优选产品结构均衡、库存良性的企业。 新消费趋势下，零食连锁、折扣零售等模式创新企业快速发展，通过高 效率、便捷化、性价比方式实现结构性增长，投资逻辑聚焦渠道企业及 关联制造企业机会，具备产能和原料优势的企业持续占优。 休闲零食销售渠道呈现均衡发展趋势，会员超市、零食量贩、直播电商 等新兴渠道兴起，仓储会员制超市持续扩容，硬折扣模式带来效率革命， 零食量贩门店迅速抢占下沉市场，相关企业享受行业红利。 Q&A 2025 年食品饮料行业的整体投 ...

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit for the period from January 1, 2025, to June 30, 2025, to be between 574.78 million yuan and 624.76 million yuan, representing a growth of 15% to 25% compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The estimated basic earnings per share are projected to be between 0.2597 yuan and 0.2823 yuan, compared to 0.2258 yuan in the previous year [1][2] - The increase in net profit is attributed to the company's steady high-quality development, continuous optimization of product structure, and growth in beer sales and revenue [2] Group 2 - The preliminary financial data provided in the earnings forecast has not been audited by the accounting firm [1][2] - The specific financial data will be confirmed in the company's subsequent disclosure of the 2025 semi-annual report [2]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - The liquor sector is experiencing pressure from graduation banquets, but the stabilization of Moutai prices may boost confidence [2][13] - The approval of D-allohexose and the implementation of childcare subsidies are key investment opportunities in the consumer goods sector [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From June 30 to July 4, the food and beverage sector increased by 0.62%, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 1.54% [1][24] - Specific segments include meat products (+1.22%), liquor III (+1.20%), baked goods (+0.92%), and beverages (-1.64%) [1][24] Liquor Sector Insights - The liquor sector saw a 1.20% increase, outperforming the overall food and beverage industry but underperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index [2][13] - The price of 25-year Moutai (original) is 1935 yuan, up by 65 yuan from the previous week, indicating a potential recovery in industry confidence [2][13] Consumer Goods Sector Insights - The approval of new food raw materials and the rollout of childcare subsidies are expected to catalyze growth in the health products, soft drinks, snacks, and dairy sectors [4][15] - The childcare subsidy program provides 3600 yuan per child annually, which may positively impact the dairy sector [4][15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, focus on companies benefiting from concentration and strong alpha, such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai [5][22] - In the consumer goods sector, recommend companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies, including Lihigh Food and Dongpeng Beverage [5][22]

证券研究报告 行业研究 / 行业点评 2025 年 07 月 10 日 行业及产业 食品饮料 强于大市 投资要点： 一年内行业指数与沪深 300 指数对比走势： 资料来源：聚源数据，爱建证券研究所 《啤酒行业跟踪报告：啤酒进入消费旺季，燕 京啤酒 U8 放量》2025-06-27 《食品饮料行业跟踪报告：白酒持续筑底，聚 焦高景气主线》2025-06-09 证券分析师 范林泉 S0820525020001 021-32229888-25516 fanlinquan@ajzq.com 白酒仍在筑底，关注大众品结构性机会 ——食品饮料行业跟踪报告 周度跟踪：本周（6.30-7.04）食品饮料板块+0.62%，表现弱于沪深 300 指数（+1.54%）， 在 31 个申万子行业中排名第 20。食品饮料子板块中，涨跌幅由高到低分别为：白酒 （+1.19%），烘焙食品（+1.10%），肉制品（+0.93%），预加工食品（+0.26%），熟食 （+0.16%），调味发酵品（+0.04%），其他酒类（+0.03%），保健品（-0.34%），啤酒 （-0.45%），乳品（-0.66%），软饮料（-1.87%），零食（-1.9 ...

| | √特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 类别 | □现场参观 | | | √其他 电话会议 | | 参与单位名称及 | 富国基金：赵宗俊、李元博、彭陈晨、毛联永、杨勇胜 | | 人员姓名 | 国盛证券：李梓语、黄越 | | 2 | 家机构共计 7 人 | | 时间 | 2025 年 7 月 10 日 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | | 上市公司接待人 | 副总经理、董事会秘书、总法律顾问：徐月香 | | 员姓名 | 1、介绍公司概况 | | | 2、关于市场拓展与业务推进 | | | 答：在市场拓展与业务推进上，公司从产品、渠道和区域三 | | | 方面协同发力。产品端，持续加大 U8 产品体系研发投入，提升产 | | | 品竞争力，同时加大罐装产品推广力度，重点发力零售渠道，以 | | | 满足消费者多样化需求。渠道端，深化品销协同策略，线下强化 | | 投资者关系活动 | 终端铺货，提高产品市场覆盖率；线上拓展即时零售渠道，打破 | | 主要内容介绍 | 传统渠道壁垒，构建全渠道 ...