Group 1: Report Summary - Investment Rating: Not provided in the report - Core View: In the second half of 2025, credit bond investment should focus on three elements: the trend of funds and interest rates, the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds, and the cost - effectiveness of different varieties. Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner, making the coupon value of credit bonds prominent, but the valuation volatility may increase. The overall supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, and the configuration demand may weaken from August to December. Different investment strategies are recommended for different periods and varieties [1][18] Group 2: 1. Steady Coupon as the Foundation, Grasp the Trading Rhythm 1.1. Short - to Medium - Duration Credit Spread Compression for Coupon Income, Seize Phased Opportunities in Long - Duration Bonds - H1 2025 Review: The credit bond market experienced an increase in yields and a widening of credit spreads from January to mid - March, followed by a rotation of the market to medium - to long - duration and then ultra - long - duration bonds from April to June. The main factors in the first quarter were the tight funds and the change in wealth management scale. In mid - to late March, the bond market recovered, driven by supply shrinkage and the cost - effectiveness of varieties. From April to June, the market was affected by interest rate fluctuations and the shift of the funds' central point [12][13] - June 2025 Highlights: The long - duration credit bond market was activated, mainly due to the compression of short - to medium - duration credit spreads to historical lows and the increased demand from funds, insurance, and other products. The scale of credit bond ETFs increased by 7.7 billion yuan in June, which also drove the demand for some long - duration component bonds [14][16] - H2 2025 Outlook: Interest rates may continue to decline in a volatile manner. The supply of credit bonds may be difficult to expand, with the decrease in urban investment bonds offset by the increase in industrial bonds. The wealth management scale usually increases significantly in July but weakens from August to December. The rectification of wealth management's net - value smoothing methods may suppress the demand for ultra - long - duration and low - rated medium - to long - duration bonds. It is recommended to increase positions in July, take profits in August, and reduce credit bond positions from August to December, switching to inter - bank certificates of deposit and interest - rate bonds [18][19][21] - Variety Cost - Effectiveness: The 10Y high - grade credit bonds have relatively large potential for credit spread compression. As of June 30, the credit spreads of 10Y high - grade medium - term notes are still 8 - 11bp higher than the average. Short - to medium - duration credit spread compression may still be the dominant strategy. Bonds with a yield of 2.0% - 2.2% in the 1 - 3 - year AA and AA(2) categories have high allocation value. High - grade 5 - year bonds can be considered when the credit spread adjusts to the mean + 1 standard deviation [22][30][35] 1.2. Grasp the Trading Rhythm of Bank Capital Bonds 1.2.1. Difficult for Bank Capital Bond Supply to Expand in H2 2025 - H1 2025 Review: The supply of bank capital bonds increased slightly. The net financing of secondary capital bonds increased year - on - year, while that of perpetual bonds decreased. The city commercial banks increased their issuance scale, while the supply from rural commercial banks was weak [39] - H2 2025 Outlook: The demand for new capital bonds from the Big Four banks may decrease after the capital injection in June. Although small and medium - sized banks may increase issuance if the cost is low, the overall net supply is difficult to expand [40] 1.2.2. Narrower Bandwidth for Band - Trading in Bank Capital Bonds, Reverse Trading May Yield Higher Win - Rates - H1 2025 Review: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation. The yields of 1 - 5Y large - bank bonds generally increased, while those of 10Y secondary capital bonds and 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank bonds mostly decreased. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with short - duration and low - grade bonds performing better [44] - H2 2025 Outlook: The bank capital bonds still have trading opportunities following interest - rate bonds, but the credit spread compression space is limited. Reverse trading (increasing positions during adjustments) may have a higher win - rate. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields and better holding experiences [50][51] Group 3: 2. Urban Investment Bonds: Negative Net Financing in H1, a Historical First - H1 2025 Supply: The supply of urban investment bonds shrank, with negative net financing for the first time in history. From January to June, the issuance was 2.9464 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 382.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was - 71.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 218.5 billion yuan, mainly due to the tightening of bond - issuing policies [55] - Issuance Characteristics: The overall issuance sentiment was good, with a high proportion of over - subscribed issuances. The proportion of 3 - 5 - year issuances increased, while that of within - 1 - year issuances decreased. The issuance interest rates decreased overall, with greater declines in short - to medium - term bonds [55][56] - Regional Differences: The net financing performance of urban investment bonds varied by region. Most regions had negative net financing, mainly affected by district - level and park - level platforms. Guangdong and Shandong had relatively high positive net financing, while Jiangsu, Hunan, and Chongqing had large negative net financing [58] - Yield and Credit Spread: The yields of urban investment bonds generally decreased in H1, with high - grade long - duration and AA - low - grade bonds performing better. The credit spreads of all maturities and grades narrowed, with low - grade bonds performing more strongly [62][63] - Secondary Market: Since mid - March, the buying interest in the secondary market has been high, with a high proportion of TKN transactions and low - valuation transactions. There was a trend of increasing duration in transactions, and the proportion of AA(2) low - grade transactions remained high [66] Group 4: 3. Industrial Bonds: Supply Increase, Longer Durations in Both Primary and Secondary Markets - H1 2025 Supply: The issuance and net financing of industrial bonds increased year - on - year. From January to June, the issuance was 3.8718 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 309.2 billion yuan, and the net financing was 1.0788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40 billion yuan. The new regulations on science and technology innovation bonds contributed to the increase in issuance [18] Group 5: 4. Bank Capital Bonds: Low - Rated Bonds Perform Better, Weak Trading Sentiment - H1 2025 Performance: The yields of bank capital bonds showed differentiation, with short - duration and low - rated bonds performing better. The credit spreads of most varieties compressed, with 1 - 4Y small - and medium - bank capital bonds and 1 - 3Y AA - perpetual bonds having significant spread compression [44] - Trading Rhythm: The trading bandwidth of large - bank long - duration capital bonds has been narrowing, making band - trading more difficult. Reverse trading may be a better strategy. The 4 - year and 6 - year bonds have higher riding yields [48][51]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance reported a reduction of over 7,000 financing platforms since the beginning of 2024, as part of efforts to optimize local government debt management and reform financing platforms [1] - The report includes measures such as implementing a "negative list" management for bond issuance, exploring a debt repayment reserve fund system, and enhancing the lifecycle management of borrowing and repayment [1] - The government has taken strict actions against the addition of hidden debts and false debt replacement issues, publicly exposing eight typical cases of accountability [1] Group 2 - The Shanghai Stock Exchange issued written warnings to three city investment companies for violations related to financial report data and fundraising purposes [3] - The companies involved include Taizhou Urban Construction Investment Group, Suzhou Science and Technology City Development Group, and Chongqing Mairui Urban Construction Investment Co., which made corrections to their financial statements due to accounting errors and improper use of raised funds [3] Group 3 - The first consumer infrastructure REIT, CICC China Green Development Commercial REIT, was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange with an initial price of 3.16 yuan per share, opening at 4.108 yuan, marking a 30% increase on its first day [4][5] - The underlying asset of this REIT is the Jinan Lingxiu City Guihe Shopping Center, a multifunctional lifestyle plaza located in the core area of Jinan, Shandong Province [4] Group 4 - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need for an appropriately loose monetary policy and to strengthen counter-cyclical adjustments, suggesting an increase in the intensity of monetary policy regulation [7] - The central bank aims to maintain ample liquidity and guide financial institutions to increase credit supply, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [7] Group 5 - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange will officially launch the non-directional expansion business function for REITs on June 30, allowing fund managers to handle various expansion-related tasks [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange clarified three methods for REITs expansion, including sales to specific objects, allocation to existing REIT holders, and fundraising from unspecified objects [9] Group 6 - The China Interbank Market Dealers Association revised the guidelines for credit risk mitigation certificates, simplifying the registration process and optimizing the creation process [11] - The revisions aim to enhance the participation of more financial institutions and credit enhancement agencies in the creation of these certificates [11] Group 7 - The MOX Macau Stock Exchange is exploring the launch of a "Science and Technology Innovation Board" for Macau bonds and has established the Macau Science and Technology Innovation Bond Certification Committee [12] Group 8 - Xinyang Huaxin Investment Group announced a reduction in the coupon rate of its bond from 3.87% to 1%, with a total issuance of 500 million yuan [13] - Xuchang City Investment Development Group completed the issuance of 300 million yuan in corporate bonds with a coupon rate of 2.75% [14] - Nanyang Industrial Investment Group's plan to issue 2.2 billion yuan in corporate bonds has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [14] Group 9 - Huatai Haitong Securities plans to issue 30 billion yuan in subordinated bonds, with the issuance amount being accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [15] - In May, local government bond issuance reached 779.5 billion yuan, with an average interest rate of 1.87% [16]

Group 1 - The company is facing significant challenges in securing financing, as financial institutions have become increasingly reluctant to provide funds, contrasting with previous times when funding was readily available [4][6] - There is a push for the company to transition towards industrialization and reduce reliance on government support, but the leadership lacks a clear understanding of how to implement this transition effectively [6][10] - The financing department is under immense pressure, often being blamed for unmet financing targets and debt risk management failures, leading to a sense of frustration and confusion among employees [8][10] Group 2 - The current leadership is hesitant to engage in the necessary efforts for industrial transformation, preferring to delay action, which could jeopardize future success [6][10] - Despite the difficulties, there remains a glimmer of hope that successful transformation could elevate the company's status and reputation within the community [10][12] - The company culture reflects a stark contrast between the financing department's struggles and the perceived success of other companies, leading to a feeling of being scapegoated for broader organizational issues [8][12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the past two weeks, interest - rate bonds fluctuated downward. Institutions continued to explore credit - bond spreads, with long - duration bonds becoming the focus. The 10 - year credit spread has significantly compressed. The trading sentiment of credit bonds is quite extreme. Considering the usual significant decline in wealth - management scale in the last week of June, credit bonds may experience short - term fluctuations. Accounts with unstable liability ends are not advised to chase the rising market but can make arrangements during adjustments. Accounts that have already invested in long - duration credit bonds earlier do not need to rush to take profits as there is still some allocation demand in July. Additionally, there is still room for the spread of long - duration credit bonds to compress [1][3] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 City Investment Bonds - Net financing remains weak. From June 1 - 22, 2025, city investment bonds issued 3781 billion yuan, matured 3767 billion yuan, and only achieved a net financing of 14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 791 billion yuan. The primary issuance sentiment declined, with the proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times dropping by 14 percentage points to 62%. The proportion of issuances with a term of over 3 years further increased to 45% [31] - Short - end issuance rates continued to reach new lows. In June, the issuance rates of city investment bonds continued to decline. The rates for bonds with a term of less than 1 year, 1 - 3 years, and 3 - 5 years decreased by 10bp, 7bp, and 15bp respectively compared to May, reaching 1.76%, 2.19%, and 2.51% [33] - In the secondary market, long - end bonds performed strongly, with yields of many terms reaching new lows. From June 16 - 20, yields of city investment bonds across all terms declined. The decline in medium - and short - end yields was limited, mostly within 3bp, while most long - end bonds with a term of over 5 years declined by more than 5bp, and credit spreads also compressed [36] - From the broker transaction data, bonds of all terms were traded at a discount to valuation, with long - term bonds over 5 years performing the best. The daily transactions of city investment bonds were still active, with daily transactions often exceeding 800, and the average discount to valuation per trading day was around 2bp. The average discount to valuation of long - term bonds over 5 years was 2.8bp [41] 3.2 Industrial Bonds - In June, the issuance and net - financing scale of industrial bonds increased significantly year - on - year. From June 1 - 22, industrial bonds issued 6187 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1345 billion yuan, and achieved a net financing of 3050 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1425 billion yuan. The comprehensive, public - utility, and non - bank financial industries had relatively large net - financing scales [43] - The issuance sentiment weakened. The proportion of full - field multiples above 3 times decreased from 38% to 30%, while the proportion of 2 - 3 times increased from 24% to 30% [43] - The proportion of medium - and long - term issuances increased. Since June, the proportion of industrial bonds with a term of less than 1 year decreased from 40% in May to 31%, while the proportions of 1 - 3 years, 3 - 5 years (including 5 years but excluding 3 years), and over 5 years increased to 40%, 18%, and 12% respectively [43] - From the broker transactions, the buying sentiment of industrial bonds was high. The TKN proportion remained at 79%, and the proportion of discount - to - valuation transactions increased from 65% to 66%. The transaction duration lengthened, with the proportion of transactions over 5 years increasing by 5 percentage points to 19% [45] 3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - In the primary market, from June 16 - 22, 2025, Xi'an Bank and Qingdao Rural Commercial Bank each issued a 20 - billion - yuan 5 + 5 - year secondary capital bond. The issuance rate of Xi'an Bank was 2.30%. Minsheng Bank issued a 300 - billion - yuan 5 + N - year perpetual bond with an issuance rate of 2.30% [48] - In the secondary market, yields of bank capital bonds declined across the board, and spreads showed differentiation. 10 - year secondary capital bonds and medium - and long - term perpetual bonds performed better. Specifically, yields of 1 - 5 - year secondary capital bonds generally declined by 2 - 4bp, with credit spreads fluctuating narrowly. The 10 - year secondary capital bond yield declined by 5bp, and the spread narrowed by 2bp. Bank perpetual bonds outperformed secondary capital bonds, with most credit spreads narrowing by 0 - 4bp [48] - From the broker transactions, from June 16 - 20, the number of bank capital bond transactions increased significantly month - on - month, and the trading sentiment was good. The TKN proportion was above 68%. The proportions of discount - to - valuation transactions of secondary capital bonds and perpetual bonds increased by 2 and 1 percentage points respectively to 70% and 77%. In terms of the term structure, state - owned bank transactions were still concentrated in long - duration bonds with good liquidity. The proportion of 4 - 5 - year secondary capital bond transactions of state - owned banks increased by 3 percentage points to 54%, while that of perpetual bonds decreased by 4 percentage points to 60%. Joint - stock bank transactions reduced the duration [51] - Regarding TLAC bonds, by subtracting the average yields of 3 + 1, 5 + 1, and 10 + 1 TLAC bonds from the yields to maturity of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y AAA - secondary capital bonds, the spreads of secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were obtained. As of June 20, 2025, the spreads of 3Y, 5Y, and 10Y secondary capital bonds over TLAC bonds were 3.5bp, 7.5bp, and 4.8bp respectively, indicating that the 10 - year TLAC bond was more cost - effective at present [54] - For commercial financial bonds, taking the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond as an example, since 2021, its spread has mostly fluctuated between 10 - 30bp, with a stable spread center at 20bp. As of June 20, the credit spread of the 3Y AAA commercial financial bond was 14bp, at a relatively low level compared to the spread center [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of a volatile bond market and a passive widening of credit spreads, investors should prioritize high - coupon assets for certain returns and prepare in advance for the spread compression market driven by the seasonal inflow of wealth management funds in July [1][5]. - The current core contradiction in the credit bond market is the co - existence of weakening allocation demand and a passive widening of spreads in a volatile environment. Investors should seize pricing deviation opportunities under the protection of coupon safety cushions [5]. - The volatile market pattern caused by the interplay of multiple factors will continue, providing tactical opportunities for layout during market adjustments [6]. - The coupon strategy is the optimal solution in a volatile market, and portfolios should be constructed in a stratified manner according to the characteristics of liabilities [7]. - Investors should "pre - position" for the seasonal spread compression market in July and seize structural opportunities in specific bond varieties [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Yield and Spread Overview 3.1.1 Yields and Changes of Each Tenor - Yields of various types of bonds at different tenors are presented, along with their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For example, the 0.5 - year Treasury yield is 1.41%, down 4.0bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 8.4% [14]. 3.1.2 Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor - Credit spreads of various types of bonds at different tenors are shown, including their weekly changes and historical percentiles. For instance, the 0.5 - year credit spread of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 25bp, up 2.1bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 12.7% [16]. 3.2 Yields and Spreads of Credit Bonds by Category (Hermite Algorithm) 3.2.1 Yields and Spreads of Urban Investment Bonds by Region - **Yields and Changes of Each Tenor**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the 0.5 - year yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.77%, up 2.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 1.1% [19]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Tenor**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at key tenors, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are given. For example, the 0.5 - year credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 30.41bp, up 4.6bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 7.2% [22]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are presented. For example, the AAA - rated yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 5.1% [26]. - **Spreads and Changes of Each Implied Rating**: Credit spreads of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces for each implied rating, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are shown. For example, the AAA - rated credit spread of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 28.96bp, up 4.8bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 32.2% [31]. - **Yields and Changes of Each Administrative Level**: Yields of public non - perpetual urban investment bonds in different provinces at each administrative level, their weekly changes, and historical percentiles are provided. For example, the provincial - level yield of Anhui's public non - perpetual urban investment bonds is 1.80%, up 3.5bp from last week, with a historical percentile of 3.7% [35].

Core Insights - The cash flow of urban investment companies has improved in 2024, indicating progress in market-oriented transformation and debt reduction [1][2][3] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 0.81 trillion yuan, marking the first positive net cash flow in five years [1][2] - Urban investment companies are focusing on cash flow management and diversifying income sources to enhance asset utilization and profitability [2][3] Group 1: Cash Flow Improvement - By the end of 2024, urban investment companies' cash inflow reached 23.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.06% [1][2] - Nearly 80% of key provincial urban investment companies reported positive cash flow, with a year-on-year increase of 2.33% [3] - The shift in focus from being service providers to comprehensive urban operators is evident, with companies exploring community services to enhance cash flow [3] Group 2: Long-term Equity Investment - Urban investment companies are increasingly engaging in long-term equity investments, with a total scale of 6.5 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, a 12.3% increase from 2023 [6] - Despite the growth in investment scale, net investment income decreased by 6.77% year-on-year to 0.31 trillion yuan [6] - The rationale behind long-term equity investments includes business expansion, profit enhancement, and alignment with regional industrial policies [7] Group 3: Market-oriented Transformation - The transformation of urban investment companies into local state-owned capital operation platforms is gaining traction, focusing on equity and fund investments [7] - Companies are leveraging strong relationships with local governments to participate in industry guidance and enterprise cultivation [7] - The ongoing reforms aim to push local financing platforms to exit by over 50% by mid-2025, indicating a significant shift in operational strategy [5]

调节方法: 调节方法:1、前期差错更 3、首期美错更正 作为城市基础设施建设的主力军，城投平台长期承担着城市开发、基建投资等重任。然而近年来， 35 号文分类监管、47号文债务管控 等政策持续落地，叠加 "335" 指标 等最新要求，城建类业务收缩与债 务压力不断 倒逼着城投产业加速转型 。 在此背景下，城投产业如何突破政策红线、理顺转型路径？我们梳理了一些城 投产业转型实操中的首 发关注细节 分享给大家—— 01 公司债"355"指标下， 政府补贴应关注哪些细节？ √ 指标要求:报告期内,政府补贴占净利润的比重不超过50% | 所有者权益合计 | -15,000.00 | | --- | --- | | 负债及权益小计 | -20,000.00 | | 其他收益 | -20,000.00 | | 所得税费用 | -5,000.00 | | MANS A A B A 1 2 1 | 17 000 00 | | 受影响的报表项目名称 | 早位: 月元 影响 2022 年报表金额 | | --- | --- | | 其他应收款-原值 | -20.000.00 | | 坏账准备-其他应收款 | | | 其他应收款- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively assesses the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprises in 2024 from three dimensions: the profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity. Overall, the liquidity risk of non - financial enterprise - class public bond issuers has increased, with significant differences at the enterprise, industry, and regional levels [3][6][8]. - At the enterprise level, in 2024, although the financial flexibility of enterprises has marginally improved, overall profitability has continued to weaken, short - term liquidity is under pressure, and the liquidity risk has further increased, with intensified pressure on tail enterprises [6]. - At the industry level, in 2024, against the backdrop of shrinking terminal demand and continuous pressure on the entire real - estate chain, liquidity risks have significantly accumulated in industries related to the upstream and downstream of real estate and urban investment platforms deeply tied to land finance. Industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, and the risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly compared to 2023 [6]. - At the regional level, in 2024, Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Construction of the Liquidity Risk Measurement System from the Perspective of Debt Repayment Credit - The assessment of liquidity risk from the perspective of debt - repayment credit is mainly based on the analysis of liquidity sources and applications. Enterprises with good profitability, high financial flexibility, and strong short - term solvency generally face lower liquidity and default risks. The report selects several quantitative financial indicators from three dimensions (profit basis of liquidity creation, financial flexibility, and short - term liquidity) for basic evaluation and maps the scores to a five - level classification of liquidity risk evaluation results (L1 - L5) [4][9][12]. - The basic evaluation indicators include total asset return rate, asset - liability ratio, short - term debt ratio, EBIT/interest expense, (EBITDA - capital expenditure)/interest expense, operating cash flow net amount to current liability ratio, cash - to - short - term debt ratio, current ratio, and cash - to - current liability ratio [11]. 3.2. Sample Overview - Considering data availability, the report selects bond - issuing entities with outstanding public bonds (enterprise bonds, corporate bonds, medium - term notes, commercial paper, project revenue notes) as of May 26, 2025, excluding those that have experienced material defaults or have unavailable financial data. A total of 3,061 issuing entities are used as sample data, and their annual reports from 2021 - 2024 are used for analysis. Currently, the issuing entities of outstanding public bonds in China are mainly urban investment and state - owned enterprises [5][13]. 3.3. Analysis of the Liquidity Risk of Non - Financial Enterprise - Class Public Bond Issuers in 2024 3.3.1. Enterprise - Level Analysis - In 2024, the risk center of public bond - issuing entities has further deteriorated, and the proportion of tail enterprises has reached a new high. The overall profitability of enterprises has weakened, with the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreasing by 3.3% compared to the previous year. The proportion of entities with liquidity risk evaluation results of L4 and L5 has increased from 49.0% and 5.4% in 2023 to 52.3% and 7.4% in 2024, respectively [14]. - From the perspective of each indicator dimension, in 2024, the profitability of public bond issuers in China has continued to decline, and the coverage ability of operating cash flow has weakened. Although the financial flexibility has marginally improved, the short - term debt pressure remains high, and the short - term liquidity has generally tightened [20][21]. 3.3.2. Industry - Level Analysis - In 2024, industries such as building decoration, urban investment, steel, commerce and retail, basic chemicals, and real estate have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises in each industry exceeding 60%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in basic chemicals, steel, coal, and real estate have risen rapidly, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises increasing by more than 10 percentage points [23][24]. - The real - estate industry continues to adjust, with real - estate enterprises facing significant cash - flow pressure due to factors such as weakening demand, cautious development strategies, and high inventory [25]. - The steel industry has seen a decline in production and demand, with prices falling and enterprises facing significant performance pressure and increased liquidity risks [26]. - The basic chemicals industry is in a low - prosperity stage, facing challenges such as over - capacity and weak domestic demand, with the overall profitability under pressure [27]. - The building decoration industry is affected by weak downstream demand, with a decline in new contracts and increased pressure on construction funds, especially for weak - quality tail enterprises [28]. - The commerce and retail industry has been affected by weakening consumer demand, with profit pressure on enterprises [29]. - Urban investment platforms face continued pressure on local finance due to the adjustment of the land market, and although the asset and debt structure has been optimized, the internal operating pressure remains, and the liquidity risk of some weak - quality entities has increased [29]. 3.3.3. Regional - Level Analysis - In 2024, regions such as Guangxi, Henan, Shaanxi, Fujian, Zhejiang, and Xinjiang have relatively high liquidity risks, with the proportion of L4 and L5 enterprises exceeding 70%. Compared to 2023, the liquidity risks in Tianjin, Yunnan, Shandong, Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Guangxi, and Shaanxi have improved, with Tianjin showing a significant improvement [33][36].

Group 1: Credit Bond Strategy - The credit bond market is expected to continue in a volatile state, with a focus on interest rate strategies and band trading being more favorable than pure selection of varieties [5][38] - The strategy suggests focusing on short to medium-term credit bonds and high-grade long-term bonds to seek opportunities for interest rate compression [5][38] - The recommendation is to increase allocation in high-grade bonds from local government financing vehicles, real estate, and stable industries during market adjustments [5][38] Group 2: Local Government Financing Bonds - The transformation of local government financing vehicles is entering a complex phase, with potential pricing discrepancies as platforms adapt to new regulations [2][43] - The issuance of local government bonds is expected to remain low due to strict regulatory oversight and the ongoing transition of platforms [2][43] - Focus on short to medium-term bonds from regions with stable cash flows, particularly in Guangdong, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Henan, is recommended [2] Group 3: Financial Bonds and Varieties - High-grade perpetual bonds can be traded in response to interest rate fluctuations, but the trading space is limited and requires high trading standards [3][39] - The strategy includes focusing on high-grade bonds with a maturity of 3-5 years for stable institutions, while actively trading lower-grade bonds during market adjustments [3][39] - The expansion of TLAC non-capital instruments and their comparison with secondary capital bonds is highlighted as an area of interest [3][39] Group 4: Industrial Bonds - Industrial bonds have shown some recovery in profitability, but performance remains varied across sectors, with strong performance in automotive, machinery, and utilities, while real estate and construction sectors lag [4] - The recommendation is to focus on high-quality state-owned enterprises and stable private enterprises for medium-term investments [4] Group 5: Real Estate Bonds - The real estate sector is under pressure, with a recommendation to focus on high-grade bonds from state-owned enterprises while monitoring the recovery of the sector [4] - The potential for policy support in the real estate market could enhance recovery in core cities, but caution is advised for lower-tier cities [4] Group 6: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) and Public REITs - The market for consumer finance ABS is expanding, with opportunities for variety exploration in a volatile market [3][39] - Public REITs are recommended to balance opportunities in both primary and secondary markets, focusing on stable projects [3][39]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the financial performance of 2,088 urban investment platforms as of May 30, 2025, and finds that the integration of urban investment platforms has achieved significant results, with a slowdown in the growth rates of assets and debts, and an acceleration of the transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" [1][4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Asset Side - The total asset scale of urban investment platforms increased steadily in 2024, with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.26%, a decrease of 4.40 percentage points compared to 2023. The asset growth rates of platforms with asset sizes above 100 billion, between 50 and 100 billion, and below 50 billion were 8.79%, 3.12%, and -0.38% respectively, indicating faster growth for leading platforms [4][14]. - The growth rate of public welfare assets was 4.97%, and that of operating assets was 10.81%, with the growth rate difference expanding to 5.84 percentage points, reflecting an accelerated transformation from "scale expansion" to "quality improvement" [4][14]. - In terms of public welfare assets, the growth rate of inventory decreased from 8.69% in 2023 to 3.35% in 2024, mainly due to debt supervision and the impact of the land market. The growth rate of accounts receivable decreased from 10.99% to 8.35%, and the proportion of growing entities decreased by 2.83 percentage points, indicating improved collection of public welfare projects [5][15]. - In 2024, the growth rates of cash inflows and outflows related to other operations of platforms decreased significantly, reflecting a decreasing dependence between urban investment platforms and the government [5][18]. - The operating asset scale of urban investment platforms reached 18.32 trillion yuan in 2024, accounting for about 13.00% of the total asset scale, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10.81%. The growth rate of provincial platforms increased from 10.45% to 12.09%, while those of municipal and county-level platforms slowed down significantly [6][18]. Liability and Equity Side - In terms of the financing environment, the growth rate of the monetary funds of urban investment platforms was -9.27% in 2024, and the proportion of growing entities decreased by 9.48 percentage points. The proportions of growing entities in cash inflows and outflows from financing activities both decreased, indicating a tight refinancing environment [7][32]. - The total scale of interest-bearing debts increased in 2024, with the growth rate decreasing from 19.68% to 4.77%, and the proportion of entities with increased interest-bearing debts decreased by 22.89 percentage points [7][32]. - In terms of debt structure, affected by financing policies, the proportion of bank loans increased significantly, the bond scale decreased slightly, and the non-standard scale decreased significantly. The proportion of short-term debts increased, showing a short-term debt structure [7][32]. - The owner's equity scale of urban investment platforms continued to grow in 2024, with the growth rate decreasing from 8.61% to 4.02%, and the proportion of entities with increased net assets decreased by 8.86 percentage points. Provincial platforms with higher asset - equity scales and stronger financing capabilities received more resource support, with a net asset growth rate of over 6% [7][40]. Financial Indicators - The financing cost of urban investment platforms continued to decline in 2024, but the growth rate increased slightly compared to 2023, and the proportion of entities with increased comprehensive financing costs increased by 21.12 percentage points [45]. - In terms of debt burden, the overall asset - liability ratio of sample urban investment platforms was 61.90% in 2024, an increase of 0.83 and 0.46 percentage points compared to 2022 and 2023 respectively, with a narrowing increase [45]. - In terms of liquidity, the current ratio of sample urban investment platforms was 2.04 times in 2024, and the monetary - short - debt ratio was 0.38 times, indicating a weakening of short - term solvency indicators, but still within a reasonable range [45]. Regional Changes in 2024 - In terms of interest - bearing debt scale, provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Sichuan, Shandong, and Hubei had large interest - bearing debt scales, all above 3 trillion yuan, with an average growth rate of 6.22%. Provinces with interest - bearing debt scales above 1 trillion yuan had an average growth rate of 2.80%, and those below 1 trillion yuan had an average growth rate of 1.08% [47][49]. - In terms of direct financing, the average growth rate of the outstanding bond scale of urban investment in 2024 was 3.71%, concentrated in provinces such as Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong, Sichuan, and Guangdong, which accounted for about 50% of the total urban investment bond scale [50][51]. - In terms of bank loans, the average growth rate of bank borrowing scale in 2024 was 8.42%. Provinces such as Hainan, Guangxi, Jilin, Yunnan, and Chongqing had a bank loan proportion of over 70% [52]. - In terms of non - standard financing, the growth rate of non - standard financing decreased from 2.06% to - 44.71% in 2024, showing an overall downward trend [52].