隔夜油价小幅反弹，但短线反弹力度已经明显走弱，油价可能延续前期下跌趋势。 由于国际原油供应过剩，任何利空原油的因素都可能是推动油价进一步下跌的动力。近期美国总统特朗普就俄乌"和平计划"再 次向乌克兰施压，并称希望乌克兰迅速行动。有消息称，美国和俄罗斯官员预计将于本周末在美国迈阿密举行会晤，俄罗斯和 乌克兰实现和平的概率越来越大。 黄金方面： 隔夜黄金先扬后抑，短线快速刷新高点后回落，结构上有完成的可能，不排除中线见顶的可能性。 今年黄金走势表现突出，全年金价累计涨幅超过60%，推动这一轮黄金强势上涨的核心因素包括，经济扩张、风险与不确定 性、机会成本以及趋势动能，这四大变量共同作用，塑造了黄金在全球资产配置中的独特地位。而上述四大因素在2026年可能 仍将支撑金价，来自经济上的不确定性尤其明显，美国经济褐皮书已经发出了一系列的警示信号，美国经济可能会拖累全球， 特别是美国在全球化问题上的倒行逆施，会导致全球经济联系割裂，全球贸易衰退。 百利好特约智昇研究市场策略师鹏程认为，黄金在全球资产配置中的多元化和风险对冲功能，已被全球投资者和政策制定者重 新认识和高度重视，也被证明是很有必要的。 技术面：黄金日线收小阴 ...

Core Viewpoint - The unofficial foreign exchange market in Algeria is experiencing volatility, with the euro rising to 280 Algerian dinars on December 14, indicating a continued upward trend despite previous fluctuations [1] Exchange Rate Movements - The euro had previously approached 300 dinars at the end of November, causing widespread concern, but fell to 279 dinars in early December before rising again [1] - The US dollar has slightly decreased in the unofficial market, quoted at 240.50 dinars per dollar, showing a minor decline from the previous trading day while maintaining a high level of fluctuation [1] - In the official market, the Algerian central bank reported a slight increase in the euro to 152.10 dinars and a decrease in the dollar to 129.58 dinars, widening the gap between official and black market rates [1] Regulatory Actions - The Algerian government has intensified its regulation of foreign exchange usage, with nine individuals detained for the illegal use of 750 euros in travel foreign exchange subsidies, reflecting the government's strict enforcement of foreign exchange policies [1]

需要注意的是，当前市场交易还需警惕多重潜在风险因素： 市场流动性风险：临近年底，全球金融市场流动性逐步收紧，可能放大资产价格波动幅度，交易者需警 惕"假突破"行情，避免盲目追涨杀跌。 数据公布的瞬间，市场反应立竿见影。美元指数(DXY)应声下挫约20点，短线最低下探至98.24一线； 非美货币则集体走强，掀起一波快速反弹行情。其中，欧元兑美元(EUR/USD)反应最为敏锐，短线拉升 近30点，迅速摆脱日内低位区域；美元兑日元(USD/JPY)受美元走弱与市场避险情绪升温的双重压制， 短线下挫近40点，最低触及155.35。与此同时，美国国债市场迎来显著提振，债券价格大幅攀升，收益 率快速下行，对货币政策高度敏感的两年期美国国债收益率跌幅逾3个基点，回落至3.452%。 此次通胀数据的"技术性"放缓，与数据公布前市场的谨慎预期形成鲜明反差。数据出炉前，尽管市场已 部分消化美联储12月暂停降息的决策，但对于通胀黏性以及潜在关税政策带来的物价上行压力仍心存忌 惮，美元指数因此获得阶段性支撑。而低于预期的CPI读数，如同投入平静湖面的石子，瞬间扭转市场 短期情绪，交易员随即调整仓位，押注通胀压力缓解有望为美联储未来启 ...

【12月18日交易员称新一年货币波动性将继续减弱】交易员透露，新一年货币波动性会持续减弱，主要 央行政策路径在可预见未来已明朗。衡量十国集团货币一个月波动性的指标本周降至5.81%，为2022年 以来最低。英镑、欧元一个月波动率分别降至2014年、2024年7月以来最低。 MacroHive外汇策略师指 出，全球影响货币走势因素趋同，表明市场预期"近期风险小"。美联储准备明年进一步降息，英国央行 或效仿。瑞典、挪威和瑞士央行预计长时间维持利率不变。 日本央行可能是采取紧缩货币政策的少数 例外，欧洲央行或加入。 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 扫码查看原文 货币市场:2024年未波动降至多年低 位,明年或延续趋稳 【12月18日交易员称新一年货币波动性将继续减 弱】 交易员透露,新一年货币波动性会持续减弱, 主要央行政策路径在可预见未来已明朗。衡量十国 集团货币一个月波动性的指标本周降至5.81%,为 2022年以来最低。英镑、欧元一个月波动率分别降 至2014年、2024年7月以来最低。MacroHive外汇 策略师指出,全球影响货币走势因素趋同,表明市 场预期"近期风险小"。美联储准备明年进一步降 息,英国央 ...

Economic Overview - The current economic fundamentals are at a delicate turning point, with the latest non-farm payroll data showing an increase of 64,000, surpassing the market expectation of 51,000, but underlying signals indicate a cooling trend [1][3] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, suggesting a loosening of the previously tight labor market, adding significant uncertainty to future monetary policy directions [1][3] Employment Structure Analysis - Recent revisions of employment data indicate that growth momentum has been overestimated, with August's figures revised down to -26,000 and September's to 108,000 [4] - The average hourly wage growth in November was only 0.1%, falling short of expectations, which may erode residents' real purchasing power amid inflation [4][5] Business Activity and PMI - The S&P Global Composite PMI index fell from 54.2 to 53, with the services PMI dropping to 52.9, reflecting a loss of momentum in business activity expansion [5] - Although all sectors remain above the 50 mark, the downward trajectory raises widespread concerns about the sustainability of growth [5] Commodity Market Insights - The commodity market is experiencing significant structural differentiation, with platinum emerging as a leading asset, surging 3.22% to $1,874.30, indicating its safe-haven asset characteristics and expectations of supply-demand gaps in industrial manufacturing [5] - Silver has slightly retreated to $63.795, but its substantial gains since August suggest that the current consolidation may represent a high-level bottoming process [5] Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices are hovering around $4,331.20, reflecting a cautious investor sentiment as they digest conflicting information [6] - The rise in unemployment provides support for safe-haven assets, while the better-than-expected job growth suppresses bullish momentum [6] - The strong breakout of platinum and the high-level consolidation of gold create a market landscape driven by both safe-haven and industrial demand, with the metal sector's independent trends likely to be a focus in the near term [6]

Gold Market - Gold prices experienced a short-term increase influenced by the U.S. non-farm payroll data, reinforcing the existing upward trend, with potential for new highs in the medium term [1] - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [1] - Average hourly earnings in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in corporate profit growth which may affect consumer spending [1] - The technical analysis shows a bullish outlook for gold, with a daily upward structure and support at the $4,296 level [1] Oil Market - International oil prices fell below $55 per barrel, reflecting a weak fundamental outlook, with no signs of improvement in the oversupply situation [2] - Demand remains weak, with global oil supply growth outpacing demand growth, leading to approximately 1.4 billion barrels of oil in "floating storage," indicating potential supply release [2] - The oil market is facing a structural surplus, with inventory levels at a near four-year high, and the EIA's upcoming report is expected to confirm significant supply surplus [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend for oil prices, with a possibility of short-term recovery but primarily recommending short positions [2] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar has maintained a weak trend in recent months, with a long-term downward trajectory expected due to declining U.S. interest rates [3] - A recent survey indicates that most economists expect the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates at 2% until at least December 18, with a likelihood of future rate hikes, suggesting potential for euro appreciation [3] Japanese Yen and Interest Rates - The Bank of Japan is set to raise interest rates to the highest level in 30 years on December 19, increasing short-term rates from 0.5% to 0.75% due to persistent inflation above 2% [4] - Technical analysis shows signs of a potential rebound in the U.S. dollar index, with support at the 98.30 level [4] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index has shown mixed performance with small fluctuations, indicating a potential start of a medium-term downward wave [5] - Short-term price action suggests a possible rebound, with resistance at the 50,170 level [5] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown a bearish trend but have not significantly declined, with a potential for new highs as the market forms a consolidation pattern [6] - Support is noted at the $5.25 level [6] Market Overview - Trump is interviewing candidates for the Federal Reserve chair position, including current Fed Governor Waller and former Governor Walsh [7] - Trump has imposed a blockade on sanctioned oil tankers entering and exiting Venezuela, demanding the return of oil assets to the U.S. [8] - The U.S. added 64,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021 [9] - Upcoming data includes the EIA's weekly oil inventory report on December 12 [10]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：北京商报 人民币近期升值势头强劲。12月16日，在岸人民币对美元汇率最高来到7.0417，创下2024年10月来新 高；离岸人民币对美元汇率升破7.04，最高报7.0374，同样触及阶段性高点。这已是人民币汇率连续两 日刷新纪录。 美元弱、结汇旺、预期稳，构成本轮人民币升值的主要动力。展望未来，国际收支结构的根本性改善和 宏观经济长期向好是人民币稳定的核心支柱。分析人士同时强调，人民币升值过程将是渐进的、温和 的、有管理的。从政策基调来看，人民银行将"保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定"，避免形 成强烈的单边预期。 将围绕7.0关口双向波动 12月16日，银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为1美元对人民币7.0602元，相较前一交易日中间价7.0656 元，调升54个基点。截至当日16时，在岸、离岸人民币对美元汇率分别报7.0421、7.0379，日内分别涨 0.09%、0.08%。 12月以来，人民币连续升破7.07、7.05多个关口，月初至今涨幅接近0.5%。中国外汇交易中心12月12日 更新的数据显示，CFETS人民币汇率 ...

此轮人民币的强劲表现并非偶然。同日，中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布的人民币汇率中间价报7.0602 元，较前一交易日调升54个基点，为汇率的走强提供了官方指引。 【环球网财经综合报道】12月16日，人民币汇率市场迎来强势行情。在岸与离岸人民币对美元汇率联袂上攻，双双 刷新逾一年来的最高纪录，展现出强劲的升值势头。 截至发稿，离岸人民币对美元汇率盘中一度升破7.04关口，最高触及7.03725，创下自2024年10月4日以来的新高。与 此同时，在岸人民币对美元汇率也表现不俗，盘中最高升至7.0417，为2024年10月8日以来的最高水平。市场交投活 跃，人民币升值预期显著升温。 对于近期人民币的连续上行，市场分析普遍认为主要受两大因素驱动。首先，外部环境出现有利变化。随着美联储 在12月11日降息前后释放出明确的宽松信号，美元指数持续走弱并跌破100大关，这为包括人民币在内的非美货币提 供了普遍的升值空间。其次，年底的季节性因素也起到了推波助澜的作用。临近岁末，出口企业的结汇需求集中增 加，为人民币汇率带来了季节性的支撑。在人民币持续升值的背景下，部分前期观望的结汇需求可能加速释放，进 一步放大了升势。 ...

Key Points - The article discusses recent developments in the Chinese financial and industrial sectors, highlighting regulatory measures and economic indicators that may impact investment opportunities and market stability [4][5][6]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a meeting to discuss the implementation of measures from the Central Economic Work Conference, emphasizing the need to enhance market stability and promote high-quality listed companies [4]. - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) also convened to ensure the stable operation of the foreign exchange market, focusing on maintaining the RMB exchange rate and international balance of payments [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - In November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises in China grew by 4.8% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44%. The cumulative growth for the first eleven months was 6.0% [5]. - The growth rates for different sectors in November included mining at 6.3%, manufacturing at 4.6%, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply at 4.3% [5]. Group 3: Market Trends and Company News - The number of cities with rising new home prices increased in November, with Hefei and Xiangyang showing the highest growth rates [6]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of L3 conditional autonomous driving vehicle permits, marking a significant step towards commercialization in designated areas [6]. - The National Energy Administration projected that by 2025, total power generation capacity will exceed 3.8 billion kilowatts, with a year-on-year growth of 14% [6]. Group 4: Company-Specific Developments - Muxi Co., Ltd. will be listed on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board on December 17 [9]. - Aerospace Electronics plans to invest 727 million yuan to gain control of its subsidiary, Aerospace Rocket Company [12]. - TCL Technology intends to purchase a 10.77% stake in Shenzhen Huaxing Semiconductor for 6.045 billion yuan [21].

12月15日，人民币兑美元中间价下调18个基点，报7.0656。12月12日，CFETS人民币汇率指数为97.71， 按周涨0.06。 中国人民银行授权中国外汇交易中心公布，2025年12月15日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价为：1美 元对人民币7.0656元，1欧元对人民币8.2855元，100日元对人民币4.5303元，1港元对人民币0.90776元， 1英镑对人民币9.4357元，1澳大利亚元对人民币4.6919元，1新西兰元对人民币4.0944元，1新加坡元对 人民币5.4653元，1瑞士法郎对人民币8.8702元，1加拿大元对人民币5.1278元，人民币1元对1.1354澳门 元，人民币1元对0.58036马来西亚林吉特，人民币1元对11.3425俄罗斯卢布，人民币1元对2.3897南非兰 特，人民币1元对209.20韩元，人民币1元对0.52031阿联酋迪拉姆，人民币1元对0.53157沙特里亚尔，人 民币1元对46.4301匈牙利福林，人民币1元对0.50980波兰兹罗提，人民币1元对0.9015丹麦克朗，人民币 1元对1.3132瑞典克朗，人民币1元对1.4335挪威克朗，人民币1元对6.04 ...