Group 1: Impact of Monetary Policy on Forex Market - Interest rate policy influences capital flows; rising rates attract foreign investment, increasing demand for local currency, while falling rates lead to capital outflows [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hikes in 2022 resulted in a 15% increase in the US Dollar Index [1] - Japan's negative interest rate policy has led to the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing 150 in 2023 [1] Group 2: Comparison of Major Economies' Policies - The US is the global financial cycle leader, using tools like federal funds rate and quantitative easing, with a projected increase in fiscal deficit by $3.3 trillion in 2025, weakening dollar credit [1][14] - The Eurozone balances trade and financial stability, with a projected increase in defense spending leading to a stronger Euro [1][17] - Japan's negative interest rate and yield curve control policies have mixed effects, with expectations of rate hikes in 2025 leading to a 4.7% appreciation of the Yen against the Dollar [2] Group 3: Emerging Markets Dynamics - Resource-exporting countries like Brazil and Chile benefit from a weaker dollar, with the Chilean Peso expected to appreciate by 3.88% in 2025 [7] - Countries with high external debt, such as Turkey and Argentina, face significant currency depreciation pressures due to US rate hikes [8] Group 4: Policy Spillover and Cross-Border Mechanisms - The US monetary policy significantly influences global financial cycles through risk asset prices and capital flows [9] - The European and Latin American regions show varying sensitivities to these policies, with Europe being more affected than Asia [10] Group 5: New Trends and Strategies - The weakening dollar is expected to accelerate the internationalization of the Renminbi, with offshore Renminbi appreciating by 1.4% in 2025 [6] - Investment strategies include going long on resource-rich currencies and shorting currencies from high-debt countries [18] Group 6: Conclusion and Market Response - Policymakers need to balance exchange rate stability, capital mobility, and monetary policy independence, especially in emerging markets [19] - Investors should focus on central bank policy expectations and consider currencies with strong economic resilience, such as the Renminbi and Swiss Franc [19]

Group 1 - The global foreign exchange market is experiencing a shift where macroeconomic data, particularly inflation indicators, are becoming the primary drivers of currency movements, overshadowing political rhetoric such as tariff threats [1] - The recent performance of the US dollar illustrates this data-driven characteristic, as its strength is more attributed to fundamental support like rising US Treasury yields rather than political statements [2] - The Canadian dollar is under multiple pressures, including political uncertainty from US tariff threats and upcoming domestic employment data that may reveal economic weaknesses, leading to potential downward risks [3] Group 2 - The euro is facing a unique challenge as its strength, while enhancing its status as a strategic asset, is also eroding the competitiveness of European exporters amid global demand weakness and new tariff risks [4] - The European Central Bank is in a delicate policy dilemma due to the rapid appreciation of the euro, which has implications for its monetary policy considerations [4][5] - The current foreign exchange market is in a cautious wait-and-see mode, with pricing strategies becoming more precise, and the next major movement will depend on whether inflation data alters Federal Reserve policy expectations [6]

Core Viewpoint - The euro is experiencing fluctuations against the US dollar, with recent developments in trade negotiations and economic indicators influencing its value [2]. Group 1: Currency Exchange Trends - The euro to US dollar exchange rate is currently around 1.1674, down 0.21% from the previous close of 1.1699, with a year-to-date increase of nearly 13% [1]. - Over the past month, the euro has appreciated by 2.18% against the dollar, and by 7.95% over the past year [2]. Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policies - The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered the deposit rate to 2.00% in June and is expected to maintain it this month, with market expectations of a further 25 basis point cut by the end of the year [2]. - In contrast, the Federal Reserve has kept interest rates between 4.25% and 4.50%, raising inflation expectations for 2025 due to tariffs impacting prices [2]. Group 3: Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment - Significant progress has been made in EU-US trade negotiations, with a potential framework agreement that may include a 10% baseline tariff and exemptions for key products like Airbus aircraft [2]. - The market is closely monitoring the outcome of these negotiations, as a successful agreement could strengthen the euro further, while uncertainties surrounding tariff policies and global economic fluctuations remain [2]. Group 4: Technical Analysis - The initial resistance level for the euro against the dollar is at 1.1830, with further resistance at 1.1815 and 1.1852 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.1441 (55-day SMA), followed by 1.1210 and 1.1064, with a significant psychological level at 1.1000 [3].

Core Points - The central bank's foreign exchange market has reported the RMB exchange rates for July 11, 2025, indicating a mixed performance against various currencies [1] Group 1: Exchange Rate Changes - The USD/RMB rate is reported at 7.1475, a decrease of 35 points, indicating an appreciation of the RMB [1] - The EUR/RMB rate is at 8.3697, down by 313 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the Euro [1] - The HKD/RMB rate is at 0.91054, down by 4.2 points, showing a slight appreciation of the RMB against the Hong Kong Dollar [1] - The GBP/RMB rate is at 9.7142, down by 209 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the British Pound [1] - The AUD/RMB rate is at 4.7156, up by 335 points, suggesting a depreciation of the RMB against the Australian Dollar [1] - The CAD/RMB rate is at 5.2391, up by 63 points, indicating a weaker RMB against the Canadian Dollar [1] - The JPY/RMB rate is at 4.8981, down by 65 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the Japanese Yen [1] - The RMB/RUB rate is at 10.8324, down by 550 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the Russian Ruble [1] - The NZD/RMB rate is at 4.3225, up by 227 points, suggesting a depreciation of the RMB against the New Zealand Dollar [1] - The RMB/MYR rate is at 0.59359, up by 8.9 points, indicating a weaker RMB against the Malaysian Ringgit [1] - The CHF/RMB rate is at 8.9859, down by 426 points, reflecting a stronger RMB against the Swiss Franc [1] - The SGD/RMB rate is at 5.5933, down by 21 points, indicating a stronger RMB against the Singapore Dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - Standard Chartered Bank's report emphasizes a positive outlook on global equities while being cautious about the US dollar's strength, suggesting a shift towards risk assets due to expected dollar weakness [2][3]. Global Stock Outlook - The bank continues to favor global stocks, particularly increasing the allocation to Asian equities (excluding Japan) due to the anticipated weakening of the dollar, which is expected to attract more capital into emerging markets [3][11]. - The chief investment officer for North Asia at Standard Chartered highlights the ongoing uncertainty in the global investment environment, with a structural risk of "de-dollarization" gaining attention [4]. Fixed Income Strategy - Standard Chartered expects the dollar's decline to enhance the appeal of emerging market local currency bonds, maintaining an overweight position in these assets [7]. - The bank views global bonds as a core portfolio component, favoring emerging market local currency government bonds while underweighting developed market investment-grade corporate bonds due to high valuations and economic uncertainty [9]. Currency Perspective - The bank predicts that cyclical factors will lead to a weaker dollar over the next 6-12 months, with the euro and yen likely benefiting from this trend [13]. - Despite the dollar's ongoing dominance, there are signs of a gradual erosion of its position due to changing trade flows and structural debt concerns [14][15]. Gold and Diversification - The report notes that gold is becoming increasingly attractive as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, with central banks, especially in emerging markets, increasing their gold purchases [18][19]. - According to a survey by the World Gold Council, 76% of central banks believe that gold's share in global reserves will rise over the next five years, up from 69% in the previous year [18].

Group 1 - The euro to dollar exchange rate has dropped to around 1.1705, while the pound has risen for the fourth consecutive trading day, surpassing the 1.3700 mark during the European session [1] - The US dollar has regained strength against the yen, breaking through the 147.00 level, and the Australian dollar is fluctuating above 0.6500 [1] - The New Zealand dollar is showing an upward trend, trading around 0.6050, and the US dollar has also strengthened against the Canadian dollar, climbing to approximately 1.3700 [1] Group 2 - President Trump stated that those who challenge the dollar will pay a price, emphasizing the dollar's dominance [2] - Trump also suggested that if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell misleads Congress, he should resign immediately and called for an interest rate cut [3] - According to the Wall Street Journal, National Economic Council Director Hassett is a strong contender for the next Federal Reserve Chairman, having met with Trump in June [3] Group 3 - Fitch Ratings indicated that US stablecoin legislation could address key credit risks and enhance usage [4] - The UK's Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) projected that by the early 2070s, UK debt will exceed 270% of GDP [5] - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority provided liquidity of 46.7 billion HKD to banks through the discount window [6] - The Bank of Japan's committee member noted that the weighted median inflation remains below 2%, requiring careful examination of inflation stability in Japan's economy [6] - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained its benchmark interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential future rate cuts if mid-term inflation pressures ease [6] - A Reuters survey indicated that all 30 economists surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to lower the cash rate to 3.60% in August [6] Group 4 - The Thai Industrial Federation estimated that Thailand's exports have suffered losses of approximately 800 to 900 billion THB due to US tariff measures [7] - The Vietnamese Prime Minister stated that achieving a growth target of at least 8% by 2025 is a significant challenge [8] - The Bank of Thailand's meeting minutes suggested that monetary policy should remain accommodative to support economic development, with a low likelihood of a technical recession [8] Group 5 - Technical analysis for EUR/USD indicates resistance at the 2025 high of 1.1830, with support at the 55-day simple moving average at 1.1428 [9] - For AUD/USD, the Ichimoku Cloud analysis shows the pair testing the baseline, indicating potential short-term downside risk, although the overall trend remains unchanged [9] - GBP/USD is currently contesting the 2022 high of 1.3643, with support from the 21-day simple moving average at 1.3588 [10]

美元刚刚经历了自20世纪70年代初以来最糟糕的上半年表现。而不少业内人士表示，下半年美元的 前景可能也好不到哪里去…… 在2025年的前六个月，ICE美元指数累计下跌了近11%，这是自1973年尼克松时代以来该指 数在历年上半年的最大跌幅。 而1973年也正是布雷顿森林体系最终彻底崩溃的一年，西方国 家在当时放弃了固定汇率制，转而实行浮动汇率制。 事实上，过去十年间，美元也曾经历过其他疲弱期，但正如下图所示，没有哪一次像过去六个 月时间里发生的那样严重。 这一次，风向似乎正在彻底转变，且对美元不利。如今，华尔街很少有人预期美元在未来一年 左右时间会走强。有些人甚至认为这可能是美元长期贬值周期的开始。美元汇率的持续下跌， 也正开始使其作为全球顶级避险资产的地位，受到愈发尖锐的质疑。 对此， 杰富瑞集团全球外汇主管Brad Bechtel表示，"我认为美元的整体趋势仍将走低。" 外汇对冲需求 Bechtel和其他一些业内人士盘点了美元目前面临的三大利空： 通常，这些以本国货币计算回报但投资于以其他货币计价资产的投资者，会使用远期等衍生品 合约来对冲货币风险。多年来，随着美国股市和美元持续攀升，持有美股和美债的外国 ...

周二欧元走势总体呈现上涨的状态，当日欧元/美元最低下跌至1.1682位置，最高上涨至1.1765位置，收 盘于1.1724位置。回顾周二欧美市场表现，早盘期间价格先向上修正测试到四小时阻力附近后再度承 压，价格向下测试到日线支撑后止步，最终当天大阳收尾，针对后续需要关注日线分水岭位置得失。 从多周期分析，从月线级别来看，欧元受撑于1.0950位置，所以长线多头对待，月线大阳收尾，则长线 上依旧偏多。从周线级别看欧元对美元汇率受撑于1.1450区域的支撑，从中线的角度持续看多，价格下 跌暂时作为中线上涨中的修正对待。从日线级别，伴随着时间的推移暂时需要重点关注1.1700及昨日低 点区间分水岭，此位置之上暂时波段多对待，但是需要关注后续震荡后能否进一步下破是关键。从四小 时级别看暂时需要关注1.1730位置及上方趋势线1.1760-70区间阻力。从一小时级别看，考虑到目前价格 测试到日线支撑后反弹，后续暂时关注趋势线阻力压制，后续再关注能否进一步下破日线支撑是关键。 根据纽约联储周二发布的月度调查数据，消费者对未来通胀的预期已回落至今年年初、即特朗普政府宣 布大规模新关税之前的水平。美国家庭对劳动力市场的看法传 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has significant implications for various groups, including students studying abroad, foreign trade practitioners, and investors monitoring global economic trends [1][4]. Exchange Rate Overview - As of the latest data, the central parity rate of 1 USD is 7.1506 RMB, reflecting a slight increase of 29 basis points from the previous trading day, indicating a sustained appreciation trend for the RMB [3]. - The onshore market (CNY) shows a latest transaction price of 7.1692, while the offshore market (CNH) is at 7.1676, suggesting a consistent expectation of the RMB's value between domestic and foreign markets [3]. Impact of RMB Appreciation - For students and travelers, the appreciation means they can exchange less RMB for the same amount of USD, potentially saving money on expenses like tuition or travel [4]. - Conversely, for cross-border e-commerce and foreign trade businesses, the same USD revenue will convert to a lower amount in RMB, impacting profit margins over time [4]. Reasons for RMB Appreciation - The recent appreciation is attributed to several factors, including a weakening US dollar index, which provides room for other currencies to strengthen, and a stable recovery of the Chinese economy, enhancing confidence in RMB assets [5][6]. Strategies for Individuals and Businesses - Individuals are advised to consider staggered currency exchanges to mitigate risks associated with exchange rate fluctuations [7]. - Businesses engaged in foreign trade can negotiate with banks to lock in exchange rates, ensuring stable profits despite market volatility [8]. Future Outlook - The RMB is expected to experience small fluctuations, alternating between appreciation and depreciation, influenced by international economic conditions, US Federal Reserve policies, domestic economic fundamentals, and international capital flows [10].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1372.850, down by 5.924 or 0.43% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1111.436, down by 4.702 or 0.42% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3308.800, down by 2.200 or 0.07% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.765, down by 0.160 or 0.43% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.172, down by 0.01% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.358, down by 0.05% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 146.875, up by 0.22% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.653, up by 0.02% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.796, up by 0.08% [3] Group 3: Virtual Currency - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 108770.990, down by 151.990 or 0.14% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is priced at 87.300, down by 0.460 or 0.52% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2604.120, down by 11.130 or 0.43% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 2.306, down by 0.005 or 0.21% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.903 [6] - The yield on the 5-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 3.985, down by 0.002 or 0.05% [7] - The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.410, down by 0.006 or 0.14% [7] - The yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond is at 4.937, down by 0.009 or 0.18% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.632, down by 0.002 or 0.04% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.642, up by 0.036 or 1.40% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.363, up by 0.041 or 1.23% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is at 3.561, up by 0.044 or 1.25% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.481, down by 0.005 or 0.34% [7]