20251223申万期货有色金属基差日报 | 品种 | 观点 | | --- | --- | | 铜 | 铜：夜盘铜价收低。精矿供应延续紧张状态，冶炼利润处于盈亏边缘，冶炼产量虽环比回 落，但总体延续高增长。国家统计局数据显示，电力投资稳定；汽车产销正增长；家电产 量负增长；地产持续疲弱。矿供应扰动导致全球铜供求预期转向缺口。关注美元、铜冶炼 | | | 产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 锌 | 锌：夜盘锌价收低。锌精矿加工费回落，精矿供应阶段性紧张，冶炼产量延续增长。中钢 协统计的镀锌板库存总体高位。基建投资累计增速趋缓，汽车产销正增长；家电产量负增 长；地产持续疲弱。锌供求总体差异不明显，但需要关注目前有色整体市场情绪。建议关 | | | 注美元、冶炼产量和下游需求等变化。 | | 品种 | 国内前日期货 | 国内基差 | 前日LME3月 | LME现货升贴水 | LME库存 | LME库存日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘价 （元/吨） | （元/吨） | 期收盘价 (美元/吨） | （CASH-3M） （美元/吨） | （吨） | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Shanghai Copper**: Today, Shanghai copper increased in volume and price, with the main contract price breaking through the 94,000 RMB mark, and LME copper approaching the $12,000 mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite and liquidity have recovered. Industrially, downstream buyers are hesitant. China's copper smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb. Technically, attention should be paid to the long - short battle at the $12,000 mark for LME copper [6]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: On Friday night, Shanghai aluminum rose sharply, and on Monday, it fluctuated within a narrow range. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, market risk appetite rebounded, and non - ferrous metals generally rose. Industrially, the basis and calendar spread remained weak, and the industrial side had strong constraints. In the short term, attention should be paid to the technical resistance at the 22,400 RMB mark [7]. - **Shanghai Nickel**: On Friday night, Shanghai nickel fluctuated at a high level, with the open interest continuously rising. On Monday, Shanghai nickel significantly increased in volume and price, and the main contract price rose at the end of the session, breaking through the 120,000 RMB mark. Macroscopically, after the Bank of Japan's interest rate hike, non - ferrous metals generally rose, and nickel showed signs of a rebound from oversold conditions. Industrially, the spot premium continued to strengthen, providing support for the nickel price. In the short term, Shanghai nickel has changed from a short - covering rebound to a long - adding rebound, breaking through the high in early December, with strong upward momentum. In case of a short - term correction, attention can be paid to the support at the 120,000 RMB mark [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: China's smelters and Antofagasta have set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/lb, compared with $21.25/ton and 2.125 cents/lb in 2025. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the second batch of enterprises meeting the standards for waste copper and aluminum processing and utilization, with 26 enterprises on the list. The total number of enterprises meeting the standards in two batches is 53, covering 12 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions. The total production capacity of these enterprises is about 8 million tons, including 500,000 tons for waste copper processing and distribution, 4 million tons for waste aluminum processing and distribution, and 3.5 million tons for direct recycling of recycled copper [10]. - **Aluminum**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 9.76% and a year - on - year increase of 22.50%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 187 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 29.61%. In November 2025, China imported 10.707 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a month - on - month increase of 19.00% and a year - on - year increase of 34.08%. From January to November 2025, China cumulatively imported 138 million tons of Guinea bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 38.25% [11]. 3.2 Related Charts - **Copper**: The report provides charts on copper basis, electrolytic copper domestic visible inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, overseas copper exchange inventory, SHFE warrant inventory, etc. [12][13][14] - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum calendar spread, electrolytic aluminum domestic social inventory, Shanghai - London ratio, electrolytic aluminum overseas exchange inventory, aluminum bar inventory, etc. [22][24][26] - **Nickel**: The report presents charts on nickel basis, nickel calendar spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, etc. [34][36][38]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - On December 18, 2025, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 542.60 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 5.32%; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 476.60 yuan/gram, with a daily increase of 6.99% [1] - The platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish, and it is recommended to focus on opportunities such as low - absorption long positions in platinum, long platinum and short palladium, and internal - external positive spreads. The palladium price has strong bottom support in the short - term but is suppressed by its own supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - and long - term. Both need to be vigilant against significant price fluctuations [2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Platinum - **Main Logic**: Starting from the trading time on December 23, 2025, the daily opening volume limits for non - futures company members or clients in certain platinum and palladium futures contracts are set at 500 lots each. South Africa, the main supplier of platinum - group metals, faces risks in power supply and extreme weather. The platinum market is in a structural expansion phase, with stable demand in the automotive catalyst field, the hydrogen energy industry as a future growth point, and expanding jewelry and investment demand. The "interest rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the long - term price elasticity [2] - **Outlook**: With a healthy supply - demand fundamental and positive macro expectations, the platinum price is expected to be volatile and bullish [2] Palladium - **Main Logic**: The Russian geopolitical issue is a key factor affecting supply. The US Department of Commerce is investigating the import of unforged palladium from Russia, causing a temporary supply shortage in other regions. Palladium demand shows significant structural pressure. Although the long - term supply and demand of palladium tend to loosen, the short - term spot shortage and the Fed's re - entry into the interest rate - cut cycle support the palladium price [3] - **Outlook**: The palladium price has strong bottom support in the short - term due to spot shortage and a favorable macro - environment, but is suppressed by its own weak supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - and long - term [3] Commodity Indexes - **Special Indexes**: On December 18, 2025, the commodity index was 2272.81, up 0.44%; the commodity 20 index was 2604.10, up 0.53%; the industrial product index was 2207.25, up 0.79%; the PPI commodity index was 1367.53, up 0.65% [46] Plate Index - **Non - ferrous Metal Index**: On December 18, 2025, the non - ferrous metal index was 2551.69, with a daily increase of 0.02%, a 5 - day decline of 1.10%, a 1 - month increase of 3.79%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.54% [47]

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 核心观点 从业资格证号：F3035632 沪铜 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 今日铜价震荡偏弱运行，持仓量变化不大。宏观层面，今日有色 板块维持震荡运行，铜表现相对偏弱。产业层面，现货贴水和近月 月差均维持弱势运行，产业现实端较弱。技术上，关注 9.2 万关口支 撑。 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2025 年 12 月 18 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 铜铝震荡偏弱 今日镍价减仓反弹明显。宏观层面，有色板块偏弱运行。产业层 面，现货升水持续走强，给予镍价支撑。短期镍空头了结意愿较强， 带动镍价反弹。预计镍价短期维持反弹态势，可关注 11.5 万关口压 力。 （仅供参考 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The copper price rose overnight. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. Although smelting output decreased month - on - month, it continued to grow overall. Power investment is stable, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. Supply disruptions in mines have led to a shift in the global copper supply - demand outlook to a deficit [2]. - The zinc price rose overnight. Zinc concentrate processing fees have declined, the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, and smelting output continued to grow. The inventory of galvanized sheets is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production is declining, and the real estate market is weak. The overall difference in zinc supply and demand is not obvious, but the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector needs attention [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Categories Copper - Overnight price: Closed higher [2]. - Supply: Concentrate supply is tight, smelting profits at the break - even point, smelting output decreased month - on - month but still growing [2]. - Demand: Power investment is stable; auto production and sales are positive; home appliance production is negative; real estate is weak [2]. - Market outlook: Global copper supply - demand expected to shift to a deficit due to supply disruptions. Attention should be paid to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 92,720 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 165 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 11,743 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 9.80 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 166,600 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 725 tons [2]. Zinc - Overnight price: Closed higher [2]. - Supply: Zinc concentrate processing fees declined, concentrate supply is temporarily tight, smelting output continued to grow [2]. - Demand: Galvanized sheet inventory is high, infrastructure investment growth is slowing, auto production and sales are positive, home appliance production is negative, real estate is weak [2]. - Market outlook: Overall supply - demand difference is not obvious, but attention should be paid to the overall market sentiment in the non - ferrous sector. Attention should also be paid to the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. - Market data: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 22,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis is 75 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 3,072 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 21.57 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 95,550 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 31,075 tons [2]. Other Metals (Aluminum, Nickel, Lead, Tin) - Market data: - Aluminum: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 21,865 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 130 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 2,906 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 47.69 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 519,600 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 0 tons [2]. - Nickel: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 113,800 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 3,020 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 14,365 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 189.77 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 253,308 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is - 84 tons [2]. - Lead: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 16,735 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 80 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 1,961 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 47.19 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 268,450 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 15,975 tons [2]. - Tin: Domestic previous - day futures closing price is 328,600 yuan/ton, domestic basis is - 7,610 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month contract closing price is 42,275 dollars/ton, LME spot premium/discount (CASH - 3M) is - 18.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory is 3,815 tons, and the daily change in LME inventory is 20 tons [2].

当前，全球经济为金属消费提供基础支撑，美国进入降息周期并重启扩表，国内政策持续发力，共同推动增长预期提升。然 而，不同金属因基本面差异而呈现显著分化态势。在"期货大家谈——2025期货业盘点"系列第五期访谈中，新湖期货研究所有 色金属首席分析师孙匡文围绕铜、铝、镍、锡等主要品种的供需格局展开分析，解读在宏观政策与产业变迁双重影响下的有色 金属投资机会与风险。 孙匡文表示，传统消费领域如地产、基建等增长偏弱，但新能源与人工智能等新兴产业的快速发展，为铜、铝、锡注入了新的 消费增长动力，而铅、锌则未能明显受益。他认为，供应端约束是造成金属价格走势分化的关键。铜、锡面临矿端供应紧张的 局面，电解铝受限于国内产能天花板，锌、铅供应则总体宽松，镍国内外供应亦均显著过剩。因此，在宏观基调偏暖的背景 下，基本面占优的金属有望持续走强。孙匡文认为，从价格表现看，铜强于锡、锡强于铝、铝强于锌、锌强于镍。 铜市：三重因素共振 "锡市场受供应端影响较大。"孙匡文介绍，今年全球锡精矿产量下降，10月中国进口锡精矿同比下降22.36%。另外，加工费走 低，同样抑制锡精矿产量增长。 印度尼西亚等主要出口国的锡精矿受政策影响，出口不及预期 ...

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 12 月 17 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | 点评 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜内外铜价窄幅震荡，国内精炼铜现货进口维系亏损。宏观方面，11 月美国非农新增 | | | | 就业 6.4 万人，高于市场预期，但 10 月就业数据被大幅下修，失业率升至 4.6%，为 2021 | | | | 年以来最高水平，就业市场正在降温得到美官方数据确认，但能否足以改变美联储对 1 | | | | 月降息的看法仍具有不确定性，但明年 1 月降息概率再回升。另外，美国 12 月 Markit | | | | 综合 PMI 初值 53，低于预期 53.9 和前值 54.2，其中制造业和服务业均低于预期，订单 | | | 铜 | 增长放缓，价格指数攀升。国内来看，中央财办有关负责人表示，扩大内需是明年排在 | | | | 首位的重点任务，明年继续实施适度宽松的货币政策。库存方面，LME 铜库存维持 165875 | | | | 吨；COMEX 铜仓单增加 1652 吨至 412444 吨；SHFE 铜仓单增加 3558 吨至 45784 | 吨； | ...

Report Information - Report Title: Futures Research Report - Non-ferrous Metals [1][2] - Report Date: December 16, 2025 [5] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views Copper - Today, copper prices continued to decline with reduced positions, dropping nearly 2,000 yuan/ton from last night's high. - On the macro level, market risk appetite and liquidity decreased, pressuring copper prices. - On the industrial level, as copper prices fell, downstream industries' willingness to replenish inventory increased, supporting copper prices. - The game between long and short positions intensified, with strong willingness among long - position holders to close positions. Copper prices showed a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets, and low LME inventories provided strong support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 10 - day moving average [6]. Aluminum - Today, aluminum prices first declined and then rose, with continuously decreasing positions. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector declined across the board, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. - On the industrial level, the basis and monthly spread remained weak, and the expectation of aluminum replacing copper provided some support. - Technically, continuously monitor the support of the 40 - day moving average [7]. Nickel - Last night, nickel prices plunged with increased positions and maintained a weak trend today. The main contract price fell below 112,000 yuan, hitting a new low for the year. - On the macro level, the non - ferrous sector weakened, and nickel's weakness was more obvious. - On the industrial level, as nickel prices weakened, the spot premium continued to strengthen, but the monthly spread showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - Technically, nickel prices declined with increased positions, breaking through the annual low, indicating strong downward momentum [8]. Industry Dynamics Copper - After the delivery, copper prices declined, and downstream industries had some rigid - demand replenishment. However, due to the accumulation of finished product inventory in the processing sector and downstream industries' wait - and - see attitude towards copper prices, market activity had not significantly recovered, and the spot premium was at a low level [10]. Nickel - On December 16, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 111,700 - 117,800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 114,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,650 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 5,500 - 5,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 5,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. - The spot premium quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 400 yuan/ton [11]. Relevant Charts Copper - Figures include copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][13][14][18][19] Aluminum - Figures include aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), Shanghai - London ratio, and aluminum bar inventory [24][26][28][30][32][34] Nickel - Figures include nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel price trend [36][38][40][43][45][48]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡走势，收20日均线之上,20日均线向上；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净空头，空减；偏空。 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货23590，基差+160；偏多。 3、库存：12月15日LME锌库存较上日增加2550吨至64475吨， ...

行业 锌期货日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 16 日 021-60635740 期货从业资格号：F3075681 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 有色金属研究团队 研究员：彭婧霖 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 研究员：余菲菲 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、 行情回顾 | 表1：期货市场行情 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 单位：元/吨 | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变化 | | 沪锌 | 2512 | 23495 | 23400 | 24045 | 22790 | -145 | -0.62 | 2900 | -80 | | 沪锌 | 2601 | ...