【要闻速递】 欧盟理事会15日发布两份公告，宣布就俄罗斯"影子舰队"相关活动以及俄方"混合威胁"分别采取新一轮 制裁措施。 公告称，欧盟当天新增制裁5名个人和4家实体，认为其支持俄罗斯"影子舰队"及其价值链运作。 欧盟称，相关个人与俄罗斯石油公司、俄卢克石油公司存在直接或间接关联。上述人员控制用于运输俄 原油或石油产品的船只，通过掩盖油品真实来源、采取"异常和高风险"的航运做法等方式规避监管。 另一份公告中，欧盟理事会新增12名个人和2家实体至制裁名单。欧盟称，俄罗斯持续进行"混合威 胁"行动，对欧盟及其成员国和伙伴实施信息操纵和干扰，并从事恶意网络活动。 【最新白银td行情解析】 日图来看，昨日白银td结束连续收阳局面，小幅收跌，今日白银td走势区间震荡，目前处于负值区间， 布林带开口向上开口，表明处于上涨趋势中，短线仍然看涨，白银td走势下方关注14000-14500支撑； 上方关注14900-15500阻力。 今日周二(12月16日)欧盘时段，白银td目前交投于14603一线上方，今日开盘于14887元/千克，截至发 稿，白银td暂报14649元/千克，下跌0.14%，最高触及14941元/千克，最低下 ...

不过，由于原油市场不确定性尚存，国际油价仍存反弹的风险，笔者也将持续跟踪市场的变化，对此，大家认为，12月22日24时，此次汽柴油将如何变化 呢？欢迎大家留言，感谢大家的关注！ 附：全国各地加油站92/95号汽油以及0号柴油 在原油市场，本轮周期内，国际油价以震荡偏弱为主！虽然，本轮周期初，原油市场略有支撑，毕竟，美联储降息路径兑现，本月，美联储再次降息25个基 点。且，国际地缘局势紧张，美国与拉美国家关系紧张，委内瑞拉原油出口面临压力！国际油价存在一定支撑！但是，实际反馈显示，原油市场以震荡偏弱 为主，支撑原油下跌的逻辑，主要受全球经济前景不景气，市场对于能源需求疲弱担忧较强，而美国以及OPEC+原油产能提升，供应存在过剩预期！ 从最新消息了解，隔夜国际油价震荡下行，其中，WTI原油报价56.82美元/桶，布伦特原油报价在60.56美元/桶，重新汇总后，本轮周期第6个工作日，12月 22日原油均价跌至59.75美元/桶，三地原油变化率-2.05%，汽柴油预估下跌115元/吨，折合各种油品下跌0.1~0.11元/升！ 如今，距离本次调价，倒计时还剩6天，本轮周期完成60%，汽柴油降价幅度继续走扩，理性来看，2 ...

12月16日，原油期货盘面表现偏弱，截至发稿主力合约报428.0元/桶，跌幅达2.08%。 【消息面汇总】 俄罗斯总统普京已将《关于在燃料和能源领域实施针对若干外国对俄油及石油产品设定价格上限的特别经济措施》的总统令有效期延长至2026年 6月30日。文件规定，若相关合同包含由美国及其他若干国家设定的价格上限条款，则禁止向外国实体和个人出售俄油及石油产品。 巴西石油公司工会：工人罢工已影响到六家炼油厂和16个石油平台。 机构观点 华创期货：OPEC+内部存在分歧且部分国家存在超产问题，整体供应格局趋于宽松，国际能源署(IEA)预测2026年全球油市供应过剩达384万桶/ 日。同时，俄乌和谈取得进展，若协议达成可能释放更多俄罗斯原油。短期走势受俄乌和谈与贸易政策消息主导，中期来看，全球需求增长乏 力，或难以消化供应端压力，使油价承压。 华联期货：总体看，地缘方面美国和委内瑞拉有所升级，但对原油供应影响有限。原油自身供需偏过剩，美国原油产量高位，OPEC+产量稳步回 升，但明年一季度暂停增产。技术面区间偏弱。操作上期货中线偏空对待，可买入持有看涨期权保护，SC2602合约压力位参考450-460。 美国商品期货交 ...

12月16日，港股上午盘三大指数再度呈现低开低走行情，市场情绪降至冰点，恒生科技指数大跌 2.41%，国企指数跌2.12%，二者均刷新近期阶段低位，恒生指数跌1.91%下挫近500点。大型科技股、 大金融股(银行、保险、券商)、中字头等权重集体下挫大市承压十分明显，黄金股、半导体股、石油 股、汽车股等热门板块齐挫。另外，部分航空股、化妆品股逆势飘红。热门ETF方面，恒生ETF （159920）午盘跌超2%、恒生国企ETF（159850）跌超2.5%，持续打开低位布局通道。 国泰海通证券认为，美元流动性只是短期扰动，AI浪潮未完，调整后港股牛市仍有望延续；华泰证券 认为，南向资金的季节性配置特征或为港股春季行情添力，春季躁动行情值得期待。 AI+平台经济：恒生科技指数ETF（513180） 聚焦港股中国企业发展：恒生国企ETF（159850） 配置方面，国泰海通证券指出，AI驱动下港股科技仍是行情主线。随着AI产业周期向上趋势进一步确 认，后市港股科技龙头有望重拾相对优势。此外，港股红利受益于政策强化分红+低利率，港股新消 费、创新药资产较A股同样稀缺，或也值得关注。 值得关注的标的： 港股核心宽基：恒生ETF ...

Group 1: Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a slight increase, with February futures closing at $4,335.2 per ounce, up 0.16% [5] - U.S. stock indices collectively declined, with the Dow Jones down 0.09%, S&P 500 down 0.16%, and Nasdaq down 0.59% as investors awaited key economic data [1] - European stock indices rose collectively, with the UK market up 1.06%, France up 0.70%, and Germany up 0.18%, driven by expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Bank of England [12] Group 2: AI Sector Concerns - There is ongoing concern among investors regarding the high valuations in the AI sector, leading to a continued sell-off of AI infrastructure stocks [6][8] - Broadcom and Oracle, two major players in the AI chip and cloud service sectors, saw their stock prices decline, with Broadcom down over 18% and Oracle down 17.7% over the past four trading days [9] - Broadcom anticipates significant growth in AI chip revenue, but faces challenges from intense competition and rising production costs, which may lead to declining profit margins [9] Group 3: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices fell, with light crude oil futures for January closing at $56.82 per barrel, down 1.08%, amid ongoing focus on the Russia-Ukraine situation [14] - Positive signals from negotiations aimed at achieving peace between Russia and Ukraine have led to speculation about the potential return of Russian oil to the international market, prompting investors to reduce positions [14]

邓正红软实力表示，市场权衡全球供应过剩忧虑以及潜在俄乌和平协议可能带来的影响，石油软实力运行迟缓，交易清淡，12月15日（周一）国际油价走 低。截至收盘，纽约商品期货交易所西得克萨斯轻质原油1月期货结算价每桶跌0.62元至56.82美元，跌幅1.08%；伦敦洲际交易所布伦特原油2月期货结算价 每桶跌0.56美元至60.56美元，跌幅0.92%。美国代表在与基辅进行的和平谈判中提出更实质性的安全保障提议，但这一举措的最终目的似乎仍然是向乌克兰 总统泽连斯基施压，要求他在领土问题上作出让步。 分析指出，尽管停火不会立即引发俄罗斯原油大量回归市场，但将显著降低未来供应中断的风险。分析认为，上周油价持续走低，并在主要期货市场创下本 月迄今最低水平。若非美国近期在委内瑞拉问题上进一步加码，油价可能会更加疲软。自美国于上周初扣押一艘油轮并对与这家拉美产油国开展业务的航运 公司及船只实施新一轮制裁以来，委内瑞拉的石油出口已大幅下滑。 邓正红软实力理论构建了"规则先于物质"的哲学观，强调需求驱动才是经济增长的核心动力。该理论应用于能源领域时，特别关注"数字精度×绿色效度"的 融合，认为能源市场的波动本质上是规则（软实力）与物 ...

12月15日，国家统计局发布2025年11月份能源生产情况。 11月份，规模以上工业(以下简称规上工业)原煤生产保持稳定，原油生产增速加快，天然气生产平稳增 长，电力生产保持增长。 一、原煤、原油和天然气生产及相关情况 原煤生产保持稳定。11月份，规上工业原煤产量4.3亿吨，同比下降0.5%;日均产量1423万吨。 1—11月份，规上工业原煤产量44.0亿吨，同比增长1.4%。 原油生产增速加快。11月份，规上工业原油产量1763万吨，同比增长2.2%，增速比10月份加快0.9个百 分点;日均产量58.8万吨。 1—11月份，规上工业原油产量19825万吨，同比增长1.7%。 原油加工平稳增长。11月份，规上工业原油加工量6083万吨，同比增长3.9%;日均加工量202.8万吨。 1—11月份，规上工业原油加工量67507万吨，同比增长4.0%。 1—11月份，规上工业天然气产量2389亿立方米，同比增长6.3%。 二、电力生产情况 规上工业电力生产保持增长。11月份，规上工业发电量7792亿千瓦时，同比增长2.7%;日均发电量259.7 亿千瓦时。1—11月份，规上工业发电量88567亿千瓦时，同比增长2. ...

盘面上看，有色、军工、煤炭、石油、医药等板块均走低，零售、食品饮料板块逆市上扬，免税概念、 无人驾驶概念等活跃。 16日早盘，三大股指全线走低，沪指跌逾1%，创业板指跌超2%；北证50指数逆市上扬。 截至午间收盘，沪指跌1.22%报3820.85点，深证成指跌1.88%，创业板指跌2.35%，北证50指数涨 1.1%，沪深北三市合计成交11397亿元。 光大证券表示，新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期：一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力， 经济增长有望保持在合理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有望 提振市场信心，进一步吸引各类资金积极流入；此外，从历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五"开局之年A股 市场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年的积极表现有望在2026年得到延续。行业配置方面，关注TMT 和先进制造板块；若受外部因素影响，短期内市场偏震荡，则可关注防御及消费板块。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and polyvinyl chloride, are rated as "volatile" [1][2][4][5][6]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side pressure in the crude oil market has replaced geopolitical concerns, leading to a lack of support for oil prices and continuous price declines. Other energy and chemical products are also affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost changes, and seasonal demand fluctuations, and their prices are expected to fluctuate [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the price of WTI January contract closed down $0.62 to $56.82 per barrel, a decline of 1.08%. The Brent February contract closed down $0.56 to $60.56 per barrel, a decline of 0.92%. SC2601 closed at 430.2 yuan per barrel, down 6.9 yuan per barrel, a decline of 1.58%. In November, the output and processing volume of industrial crude oil above designated size increased year - on - year. Kazakhstan increased oil supply to Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, and the delivery of new mooring points at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium's Black Sea terminal was advanced. The supply - side pressure led to a continuous decline in oil prices [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 2.11% to 2417 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 rose 1.08% to 3005 yuan per ton. The high - and low - sulfur fuel oil markets are under pressure due to sufficient supply. Although the arbitrage arrivals from the Western market in Singapore are expected to decrease in December, the inventory in November increased significantly, and the supply from the Middle East in recent weeks has been substantial. The demand for marine bunkering is relatively stable, and the decline in high - sulfur fuel oil cracking profits may boost the demand of Asian refineries for high - sulfur fuel oil raw materials in the future [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.54% to 2963 yuan per ton. Tensions between the US and Venezuela have led to concerns about future raw material shortages, making the market relatively firm. Currently, refinery raw materials are relatively sufficient, and the downstream demand for asphalt in China shows significant north - south differentiation. It is expected that asphalt may remain stable in the short term under the weak oil price, but there is also a possibility of price decline [2]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4696 yuan per ton on Monday, up 1.78%. EG2601 closed at 3651 yuan per ton, up 0.66%. The inventory of MEG in the East China main port area increased by 2.5 tons to about 84.4 tons on December 15. A 260,000 - ton PX device in Japan restarted as planned. The cost - side oil price decline and the seasonal weakening of terminal demand will drag down prices. Some ethylene glycol devices are in a loss state and have stopped for maintenance, but new devices are in the production - preparation stage, increasing supply pressure [4]. - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2605 fell 30 yuan per ton to 15200 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 30 yuan per ton to 12360 yuan per ton. In the first three quarters of 2025, the cumulative number of tire imports in the US increased by 6.6% year - on - year. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased. The weather in overseas production areas has improved, and raw material prices have rebounded. It is expected that rubber futures prices will fluctuate widely [4][5]. - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2105 yuan per ton. The supply of domestic methanol is at a high - level volatility, and the supply from Iran is expected to decline. The demand from the olefin sector is expected to weaken. Although the inventory has decreased significantly in the short term, there may be a rebound later. It is expected that methanol prices will remain at the bottom and fluctuate [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was between 6170 - 6400 yuan per ton. The production of polyolefins will remain at a high level, while downstream orders and production starts will gradually weaken. It is expected that polyolefins will gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the short - term decline space of futures is limited, and prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the market price of PVC in East, North, and South China increased. The supply of PVC has decreased in routine maintenance this week but increased in sudden production cuts. The production is expected to increase slightly next week. The domestic real estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. It is expected that PVC prices will fluctuate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on December 15 and 12, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump said that he had a "very good conversation" with European leaders about the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and it seems that a "peace agreement" is closer to being reached, which may increase Russia's oil supply in the future. The National Bureau of Statistics announced the production and processing volume data of industrial crude oil above designated size in November and from January to November [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: There are charts showing the closing prices of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][16][17][19][21][22][23][24][25][26]. - **Main Contract Basis**: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][33][34][37][38][39]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [41][43][47][50][53][55]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: There are charts showing the spreads between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][62][59][69]. - **Production Profits**: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE and PP [66]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team members include the assistant director and energy - chemical director Zhong Meiyan, crude oil and other product analyst Du Bingqin, natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and methanol and other product analyst Peng Haibo, with their work experience, achievements, and professional qualifications introduced [71][72][73][74].

12月16日，隔夜美股三大指数收跌，中概指数跌2.17%，港股三大指数早盘低开低走，恒生指数跌 1.91%报25138.86点，恒生科技指数跌2.41%报5366.14点，国企指数跌2.12%报8728.97点，红筹指数跌 1.66%报4056.25点。 盘面上，大型科技股、大金融股(银行、保险、券商)、中字头等权重集体下挫，其中阿里巴巴跌 3.57%，腾讯控股跌1.41%，京东集团跌2.73%，小米集团跌2.96%，网易跌2.22%，美团跌1.64%，快手 跌1.55%，哔哩哔哩跌2.68%；中国人民保险集团跌超4%，中国人寿、中国财险跌超3%，中国太平、新 华保险、中国平安跌超2%；黄金股下跌，灵宝黄金跌超6%、半导体股、中兴通讯跌超4%；石油股、汽 车股等热门板块齐挫。另外，部分航空股、化妆品股逆势飘红，果下科技首日上市大涨超127%。 企业新闻 中国神华(01088.HK)：前11个月煤炭销售量为3.895亿吨，同比减少7.7%。11月销售量为3700万吨，同 比减少3.6% 中国中冶(01618.HK)：前11月新签合同额人民币9581.3亿元，同比降低8.6%，其中新签海外合同额人民 币750.0 ...