硅铁 供应方面，2025年1—11月硅铁产量为510万吨，较2024年同期增加1.75万吨。其中，甘肃产量增长最为 显著，青海产量降幅最大，内蒙古及宁夏产量维持稳定增长。新增产能方面，近些年，硅铁新增产能以 置换为主，总产能稳步增长。据钢联调研，2026年硅铁产能将达到1041.3万吨，新增产能预计在103.8万 吨。其中，投产确定性较大的产能约为25.2万吨，项目投产多集中在下半年或年底。此外，新疆近两年 审批通过了多个兰炭—硅铁—金属镁项目，也需关注后续项目进度。 2025年铁合金价格震荡下行，核心驱动是供应增速过快和成本支撑下移。 需求端，2025年锰硅需求超预期增长。钢厂盈利情况显著好转，炼钢需求强劲为锰硅增产提供动力。但 受制于锰硅较高的供应水平，厂家持续累库对锰硅价格形成拖累。展望2026年，在钢材终端需求中，出 口及制造业决定边际增量，预计在今年高增长情况下，边际增速将有所放缓，但韧性仍存。因此，对锰 硅而言，在需求端难有大幅增长的情况下，供应仍是决定价格走势的关键因素。 锰矿方面，2025年锰矿供需两旺。开年受加蓬矿减发、下游合金厂补库影响，锰矿港口库存大幅去化。 后续国内粗钢产量居高不下，致 ...

机构观点 瑞达期货（002961）：宏观面，央行：要继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度。供应端开工率降至年内低位，产量减 少，库存大幅下降；需求端虽环比略增，但仍处年度低位区间。利润方面，内蒙古现货利润-270元/吨;宁夏现货利润-391元/吨。技术方面，日K线 位于20与60均线上方，短期基本面稍有好转，但终端需求依旧疲软，预计维持震荡运行，请投资者注意风险控制。 新湖期货：基本面来看，硅铁供需结构阶段性优于锰硅，产量下降较大，供需错配问题有所修复，基于预期内的需求减量较难对于盘面有大幅影 响；显性库存减少亦对基本面有所提振；成本端，电价及兰炭两项重要成本价格坚挺，并且季节性抬升，硅铁价格下方支撑稳定。总体来看，硅 铁现阶段基本面优于锰硅，产量减少幅度较大，对于市场信心有所修复，短期依旧维持区间内逢低做多，中长期价格仍有继续下跌空间。 陕西双翼停产1*40500硅铁矿热炉，影响日产100-120吨，复产时间待定。 数据显示，12月24日硅铁现货价格报5250元/吨，较上一日下跌4.29元/吨，当日跌幅为0.08%。最近一周，硅铁价格累计上涨82.86元/吨，上涨幅度 为1.60%；最近一 ...

黑色建材日报 2025-12-25 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3136 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 8 元/吨（0.255%）。当日注册仓单 60684 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主力合约持仓量为 159.7429 万手，环比增加 17388 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3320 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合约 收盘价为 3285 元/吨, 较上一交易日涨 4 元/吨（0.121%）。 当日注册仓单 104293 吨, 环比减少 0 吨。主 力合约持仓量为 122.9562 万手，环比增加 31165 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3270 元/吨, 环比减少 0 元/吨。 【策略观点】 供给方面，最新一期海外铁矿石发运量环比下降。发运端，澳洲、巴西发运量均不同程度回落。主流矿山 下滑幅度各异。非主流国家发运量小幅回升，处在同期相对高位，近端到港量环比降低。需求方面，最新 一期钢联口径日均铁水产量 226.55 万吨，延续下滑趋势，降幅略超预期。河北 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 螺纹钢： 昨天螺纹盘面延续窄幅波动，截止日盘螺纹2605合约收盘价格为3136元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格上涨8 元/吨，涨幅为0.26%，持仓增加1.74万手。现货价格基本平稳，成交回升，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格持 平于2950元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于3230元/吨，全国建材成交量9.59万吨。据钢谷网数据， 本周全国建材产量回升4.41万吨至355.78万吨，社库减少34.01万吨至474.89万吨，厂库增加1.93万吨至 291.58万吨，建材表需回升7.4万吨至252.66万吨。建材产量继续回升，库存降幅有所收窄，表需小幅回 升，数据表现基本符合预期。目前螺纹现实供需表现较强，多地出现规格断档的现象，对价格走势形成 较强支撑。不过近期钢厂盈利逐步回升，市场预期1月份钢厂复产将会增多，随着淡季到来后期需求将 逐步走弱，供需矛盾或将逐步累积，市场情绪总体较为谨慎。预计短期螺纹盘面仍窄幅整理运行为主。 铁矿石： 昨日铁矿石期货主力合约i2605价格有所上涨，收于779.5元/吨，较前一个交易日收盘价上涨1元/吨，涨 幅为0.13%，成交 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint No relevant information provided. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The price of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions and varieties is presented, including spot prices, factory - to - futures prices, and futures prices of different contracts [2]. - The price trends of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese in different regions from 2021 to 2025 are shown through multiple price charts, such as market prices, export and import prices, basis differences, and inter - month spreads [3][6]. Supply - The supply data of silicon - iron includes the production volume of 136 Chinese silicon - iron enterprises (monthly and weekly), capacity utilization rates of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi (monthly), and the production volume of Chinese stainless - steel crude steel (monthly) [4]. - The supply data of silicon - manganese includes the weekly production volume of Chinese silicon - manganese, procurement prices and quantities of Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly), and the market prices of related products like high - carbon ferromanganese and electrolytic manganese [6]. Demand - The demand - related data of silicon - iron includes the estimated and actual production volume of Chinese crude steel (monthly), the price and production volume of metal magnesium, the export volume of silicon - iron (monthly), and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group (monthly) [4]. - The demand - related data of silicon - manganese includes the demand volume of Chinese silicon - manganese (in ten thousand tons, Steel Union's caliber), the export volume of silicon - manganese (monthly), and the estimated production volume of Chinese crude steel (monthly) [4][7]. Inventory - The inventory data of silicon - iron includes the inventory of 60 sample enterprises in China and different regions (weekly), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them (daily), and the average available inventory days in different regions (monthly) [5]. - The inventory data of silicon - manganese includes the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China (weekly, in tons), the number of warehouse receipts, effective forecasts, and the sum of them (daily), and the average available inventory days in China (monthly) [7]. Cost and Profit - For silicon - iron, the cost - related factors include electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia, and the profit includes the profit of 75 - grade silicon - iron exports, the profit of Ningxia silicon - iron in the spot and futures markets [5]. - For silicon - manganese, the cost - related factors include the prices of chemical coke and various manganese ores, and the profit includes the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and different regions, and the profit of Guangxi and Ningxia silicon - manganese in the futures market [6][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - Steel prices are supported by cost at the bottom but suppressed by weakening demand and possible tightening of steel export expectations, maintaining a volatile trend [3] - Iron ore shipments remain high, with non-mainstream mines as the main source of growth, exerting significant supply pressure and capping price upside. However, iron ore also has upward drivers, and is expected to trade within a range with limited upside after valuation repair [21] - As terminal winter storage approaches, the coking coal inventory structure is expected to improve, and the downside of the coking coal futures may be limited due to the relatively high basis. After the third round of coke price cuts, the cost of dry quenched coke warehouse receipts is about 1700 - 1720, and the driving force for coke valuation repair may weaken temporarily [31] - The fundamentals of ferroalloys are weak in both supply and demand, with limited upside potential. The demand for ferroalloys is gradually weakening as downstream hot metal production continues to decline. Ferroalloys may follow steel price movements, and while the upside is limited, the downside is also supported by cost [48] - With the increasing expectation of new soda ash production capacity, the expectation of oversupply is intensifying, and the futures price is breaking through the cost. The rigid demand for soda ash is expected to weaken further as glass cold repairs accelerate. High inventories in the upstream and midstream restrict the price [65] - From December to before the Spring Festival, there are still some glass production lines waiting to undergo cold repairs, which may affect far - month pricing and market expectations. The near - month 01 contract will follow the reality (delivery logic) and be mainly driven by warehouse receipt games, which may become clearer in late December. Currently, the high inventory in the glass midstream needs to be digested, and there is still pressure on the spot market [89] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3121, 3136, and 3173 respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3287, 3285, and 3301 respectively [4] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the aggregated rebar prices in China, Shanghai, Beijing, and other regions were 3327, 3320, 3130, etc. respectively; the aggregated hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Lecong, and other regions were 3270, 3260, etc. respectively [8][10] - **Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 01 - 05 month spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil were - 15 and 2 respectively; the 05 - 10 month spreads were - 37 and - 16 respectively; the 10 - 01 month spreads were 52 and 14 respectively. The 01, 05, and 10 contract spreads between hot - rolled coil and rebar were 166, 149, and 128 respectively [4][15] Iron Ore - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 iron ore contracts were 798, 779.5, and 758 respectively; the 01, 05, and 09 contract bases were - 6.5, 11.5, and 33.5 respectively [22] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the prices of Rizhao PB powder, Rizhao Carajás fines, and Rizhao Super Special were 787, 867, and 669 respectively [22] - **Fundamentals**: As of December 19, 2025, the daily average hot metal production was 226.55, the 45 - port inventory was 15512.63, and the 247 - steel mill inventory was 8723.95 [25] Coal and Coke - **Futures Price Spreads**: On December 24, 2025, the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coking coal were 165, - 80, and - 85 respectively; the 09 - 01, 05 - 09, and 01 - 05 spreads of coke were 219, - 74.5, and - 144.5 respectively [34] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur coking coal was 1600, and the ex - factory price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1330 [37] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 76, the 01 - 05 spread was - 80, and the spot price in Ningxia was 5330 [49] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 88, the 01 - 05 spread was - 70, and the spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5570 [50] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 soda ash contracts were 1184, 1241, and 1117 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 57, 124, and - 67 respectively [66] - **Spot Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the heavy - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1300, 1400, etc. respectively; the light - soda market prices in North China, South China, and other regions were 1250, 1350, etc. respectively [66] Glass - **Futures Prices**: On December 24, 2025, the closing prices of 05, 09, and 01 glass contracts were 1048, 1145, and 941 respectively; the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 month spreads were - 97, 204, and - 107 respectively [90] - **Spot Sales**: From December 15 - 19, 2025, the sales - to - production ratios in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China regions showed different trends [91]

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢 | | 螺纹产量及表需环比略上升，绝对水平仍为同期最低。库存继续下降，去化速度正常。 | | | 谨慎看空 | 铁水产量延续下降态势，已低于去年同期水平。螺纹在弱驱动、低估值状态下中期或继 | | ★ | | 续维持区间震荡反复。 | | 热卷 | 谨慎看空 | 热卷产量及表需延续小幅下降的状态，库存降幅仍然不大，处于近年来同期最高水平， | | ★ | | 去库不畅。现货相对较弱，基差平水附近波动。盘面或仍将维持区间运行。 | | 铁矿石 | 谨慎看多 | 数据来看，铁水环比再降。后续有继续减量预期，关注其降幅。钢厂降库，港口增库。 | | ★ | | 外矿发到货双降，阶段性支撑矿价。 | | 焦炭 | | 焦炭现货开启第三轮提降，各地区环保预警陆续解除， 焦企生产积极性尚可，产区供 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 应小幅下降。从需求来看，铁水产量环比再降，对原料端形成压制。预计短期跟随焦煤 价格区间运行。 | | 焦煤 | | 临近年末煤矿检修增多，预计短期供应量仍将维持偏低水平。进口方面，口岸通关车数 | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports [1][4][6][7] 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel prices rose and then fell, with stable basis. Steel production and inventory reduction continued, but the inventory structure was still differentiated. The reduction in production supported steel prices, but weak demand limited upward momentum. Steel prices were expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range. Hold 1 - 5 positive spreads for rebar, exit 5 - month coil - rebar spreads on dips, and consider long - position in the rebar - iron ore ratio on dips [1] Iron Ore Industry - In the short term, it was difficult to form a trend - based decline in iron ore supply - demand contradictions, and high inventory suppressed the price upside. With an increase in steel mill restarts, iron ore prices were expected to rebound slightly. It was recommended to trade the 05 contract within the 760 - 810 range [4][5] Coke Industry - Coke futures oscillated, and the third round of spot price cuts was implemented, with expectations of further cuts. Supply decreased due to pressure on coking profits, and demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance. Overall inventory decreased slightly, and the supply - demand situation for coke weakened. After the third round of spot price cuts, the basis weakened, and the expected rebound was unlikely to last. It was recommended to take profit on long positions in the J2605 contract [6] Coking Coal Industry - Coking coal futures continued to rebound, and spot auction prices showed mixed trends. Supply from mines improved slightly, but production might continue to decline at the end of the year. Imported coal inventory was increasing. Demand weakened as steel mills increased maintenance and coking profits declined. Overall inventory increased slightly. It was recommended to go long on the JM2605 contract on dips [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Ferrosilicon futures oscillated, with increased hedging by manufacturers driving up spot prices. Supply decreased slightly, but demand from the steel - making industry continued to contract. Inventory remained high, and the supply - demand contradiction was prominent. Prices were expected to fluctuate within the 5400 - 5650 range, and it was recommended to short on price rebounds above the Ningxia production cost [7] - Ferromanganese futures oscillated, with the market in a relatively balanced state. Manganese ore provided some support for prices. The key factors were the reduction in production and the expected restocking by steel mills at the end of the year. Prices were expected to remain weak, but the downward space was limited [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions showed various changes, with some prices increasing, some remaining stable, and some decreasing [1] Cost and Profit - Steel billet and plate billet prices remained stable. Costs and profits of different steel - making processes and in different regions also had different changes [1] Production - Daily average pig iron production decreased by 1.1% to 226.6 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 1.0% to 798.0 tons. Rebar production increased by 1.6% to 181.7 tons, while hot - rolled coil production decreased by 5.4% to 291.9 tons [1] Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8% to 1294.8 tons, rebar inventory decreased by 5.6% to 452.5 tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.6% to 390.7 tons [1] Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 18.8%, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 0.5%. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 2.7%, while that for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1] Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased by about 0.5%, and the 05 - contract basis of different powders also decreased slightly. The 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4] Spot Prices and Price Indexes - Spot prices of various iron ore powders at Rizhao Port decreased by 0.5%, while the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap price remained unchanged, and the Platts 62% Fe price increased slightly [4] Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 2.8% to 2646.7 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 3.6% to 3464.5 tons. The national monthly import volume decreased by 0.7% to 11054.0 tons [4] Demand - The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume decreased by 1.8% to 313.5 tons, and the national monthly pig iron and crude steel production decreased by 4.9% and 3.0% respectively [4] Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.8% to 15512.63 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 8724.0 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills increased by 5.0% to 21.0 days [4] Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - Coke prices in different regions and contracts showed various changes, with the 01 and 05 contracts decreasing slightly. The coking profit increased slightly on a weekly basis [6] Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions and contracts also had different changes, with the 01 contract increasing by 2.7% and the 05 contract increasing by 1.0%. The sample coal mine profit decreased by 1.5% on a weekly basis [6] Supply - The daily average production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Demand - The pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.2% to 226.6 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 0.4% to 900.5 tons, with different changes in the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports [6] Coke Supply - Demand Gap Changes - The coke supply - demand gap increased from - 0.4 to - 0.2 tons, an increase of 88.1% [6] Coking Coal Industry Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Coking coal prices in different regions showed mixed trends, with the Shanxi coking coal price remaining stable and the Mongolian coking coal price decreasing slightly [6] Overseas Coal Prices - Overseas coal prices showed various changes, with the FOB price of the same ship remaining unchanged and the ex - warehouse price of main coking coal at Jingtang Port increasing by 1.3% [6] Supply - The raw coal production of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 0.3% to 853.4 tons, and the clean coal production decreased by 0.1% to 438.2 tons [6] Demand - The coke production of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.5% to 63.0 tons, and the daily average production of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.3% to 46.5 tons [6] Inventory Changes - The coking coal inventory showed various changes, with the clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increasing by 5.2%, and the inventories of coking plants, steel mills, and ports showing different trends [6] Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese spot prices in different regions increased slightly, with price increases of 0.4% - 0.6% [7] Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes, and the production profits also had different trends [7] Manganese Ore Supply - Manganese ore shipment volume decreased by 25.0% to 80.1 tons, arrival volume decreased by 3.4% to 74.8 tons, and desilting volume decreased by 8.6% to 59.2 tons [7] Manganese Ore Inventory - Manganese ore port inventory decreased by 0.7% to 448.3 tons [7] Production - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.1% to 10.0 tons, and the production rate decreased by 6.6% to 30.3%. Ferromanganese weekly production decreased by 0.5% to 188 tons, and the production rate decreased by 3.4% to 35.6% [7] Demand - Ferrosilicon demand increased by 0.5% to 18.8 tons, and ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.3% to 112 tons. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1.24%, and the blast furnace operation rate decreased by 0.24% [7] Inventory Changes - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 16.3% to 65.7 tons, and the inventory - available days decreased by 2.5% to 15.4 days. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 0.74% to 38.5 tons, and the inventory - available days remained stable [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - No information provided in the content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **Silicon Iron**: On December 24, 2025, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron was 5250, with a daily change of 30 and a weekly change of 100; Inner Mongolia 72 was 5270, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Qinghai 72 was 5200, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50; Shaanxi 72 was 5220, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 120; Shaanxi 75 was 5650, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50. The export price of Tianjin 72 was 1020, and Tianjin 75 was 1070, both unchanged [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: On December 24, 2025, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese was 5570, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 30; Ningxia 6517 was 5540, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50; Guangxi 6517 was 5670, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Guizhou 6517 was 5620, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Yunnan 6517 was 5620, with a daily change of 20 and a weekly change of 70; Guangxi 6014 was 5050, unchanged daily and with a weekly increase of 50 [2] Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and the capacity utilization rates in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 is shown, along with the procurement price and quantity of Hebei Iron and Steel Group [7] Demand - **Silicon Iron**: The demand - related data include the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel, the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the export volume of silicon iron [5] - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand - related data include the estimated production of crude steel in China, the demand in China, and the export volume [8] Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: It shows the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: It presents the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, total inventory, inventory average available days in China, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises [8] Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data involve electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, and the production cost in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. The profit data include the profit of 75 - grade silicon - iron export, the profit of Ningxia silicon - iron converted to the main contract, and the spot profit [6] - **Silicon Manganese**: The profit data include the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions, and the profit of Guangxi silicon - manganese converted to the main contract [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was positive yesterday, but the finished steel prices continued to fluctuate. The terminal demand remains weak, and steel prices are expected to oscillate within the bottom range. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to export license management but are expected to gradually digest the policy impact. The willingness for winter storage is low this year, and there may not be large - scale restocking. Attention should be paid to the possible marginal impact of the "dual - carbon" policy on the steel industry [2]. - For iron ore, the supply of overseas shipments has decreased, the demand for molten iron has declined, and the port inventory has increased while the steel mill inventory is at a low level. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, the overall macro sentiment has improved. The future market contradictions lie in the direction of the black sector, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, the price is expected to fluctuate following the market, and attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - For polysilicon, the supply is expected to decline, the demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. - For glass, the demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations [20]. - For soda ash, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited. Short positions can be considered [22]. 3. Summary by Catalog Steel - **Market Information** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.063%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 60,684 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract decreased by 11,933 lots to 1.580041 million lots. The Tianjin aggregated price was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3320 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3281 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (0.122%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 104,293 tons, unchanged. The position of the main contract increased by 9846 lots to 1.198397 million lots. The Lecong aggregated price was 3260 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the Shanghai aggregated price was 3270 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. - **Strategy View** - Rebar's supply and demand both increased this week, and inventory continued to decline, showing off - season characteristics. Hot - rolled coil production dropped significantly, apparent demand decreased slightly, and inventory continued to fall. The export license policy aims to promote the high - quality development of the steel industry. Overall, the terminal demand is weak, the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure is prominent, and steel prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. The finished steel prices are under short - term pressure due to the policy but are expected to gradually digest it. Winter storage has started in some areas, but the willingness is low [2]. Iron Ore - **Market Information** - The main contract (I2605) of iron ore closed at 778.50 yuan/ton, down 0.38% (- 3.00). The position increased by 2081 lots to 554,000 lots. The weighted position was 928,000 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 790 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 60.70 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 7.23% [4]. - **Strategy View** - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipments decreased. The shipments from Australia and Brazil declined, while those from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. In terms of demand, the daily molten iron output continued to decline, and the steel mill profitability remained stable. The port inventory increased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory reached a five - year low. The price is expected to move within an oscillatory range [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information** - The main contract of manganese silicon (SM603) closed at 5822 yuan/ton, down 0.31%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 88 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed at 5648 yuan/ton, up 0.07%. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a basis of 52 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy View** - The macro sentiment has improved. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern is not ideal, but most factors are already priced in. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand is basically balanced, and the supply has decreased due to production losses. The future market contradictions lie in the black sector's direction, the cost - push from manganese ore for manganese silicon, and the supply contraction of ferrosilicon due to losses. Attention should be paid to possible disruptions from the "dual - carbon" policy [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (SI2605) of industrial silicon closed at 8780 yuan/ton, up 2.15% (+ 185). The weighted position decreased by 15,701 lots to 401,013 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of 420 yuan/ton [12]. - **Strategy View** - The price is expected to fluctuate following the market. The weekly output decreased slightly, and the demand from polysilicon weakened. Attention should be paid to new supply - side disturbances in the northwest [13]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information** - The main contract (PS2605) of polysilicon closed at 59,225 yuan/ton, up 0.65% (+ 380). The weighted position decreased by 10,996 lots to 223,576 lots. The spot price of N - type granular silicon was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, unchanged; the N - type re - feed material was 52.35 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 6875 yuan/ton. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the daily opening positions from December 25 [14][16]. - **Strategy View** - The supply is expected to decline, but the decrease may be limited. The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high before the Spring Festival. The futures price is unstable, and attention should be paid to actual spot transactions and warehouse receipt registration [17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information** - The main contract of glass closed at 1028 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, down 0.29% (- 3). The North China large - plate price was 1020 yuan, down 10; the Central China price was 1080 yuan, unchanged. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 58.558 million boxes, up 331,000 boxes (+ 0.57%). The top 20 long - position holders reduced 20,833 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 21,478 short positions [19]. - **Strategy View** - The demand recovery is weak, and the market is expected to continue narrow - range oscillations due to insufficient terminal demand and increasing inventory pressure [20]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information** - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1175 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 0.51% (+ 6). The Shahe heavy - soda price was 1137 yuan, up 18. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.4993 million tons, up 5000 tons (+ 0.57%), with the heavy - soda inventory down 18,800 tons and the light - soda inventory up 23,800 tons. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 9114 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 10,651 short positions [21]. - **Strategy View** - The downstream demand is weak, the inventory is accumulating, and the price rebound is limited due to cost reduction and low profitability. Short positions can be considered [22].