1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is gradually emerging, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures market follows the market sentiment and weakens. The resumption of production in steel mills is slow, and the iron ore market is under pressure from high shipments and high inventory, while pre - holiday restocking in the demand side supports the ore price. The first round of price increase for coke has been implemented, Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures market fluctuates sharply. There are disturbances in the glass supply, but the oversupply situation continues to limit the upside space of the glass futures market. Overall, the off - season fundamentals are lackluster, there is pressure above the futures price, but the restocking intensity before the Spring Festival still exists, and the subsequent resumption of production by steel enterprises is expected to further boost the restocking expectation, and the cost side still has support. It is expected that the sector will oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][5] 3. Summary of Each Category 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, and arrivals continued to weaken. Due to the impact of weather, there is an expectation of supply disturbances. On the demand side, iron - making water production decreased slightly month - on - month, steel mills' profitability weakened, rigid demand was stable, and steel mills' restocking accelerated before the Spring Festival, but the support for prices may gradually weaken as restocking progresses. Port inventory continued to accumulate, and the overall inventory pressure is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [6][7] - **Scrap Steel**: Both supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As restocking nears the end, the overall fundamentals will weaken marginally, and it is expected that the spot price will mainly follow the finished products [8] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: The first round of price increase has been fully implemented, and coking profits have improved significantly. The overall supply change is limited. On the demand side, steel - mill blast furnaces are in a state of both resumption and maintenance, and iron - making water production remains high, with strong rigid demand support. The inventory in steel mills has increased steadily. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel - mill resumption expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is also limited. The spot is expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures market is expected to follow the cost side (coking coal) [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: The domestic supply is temporarily stable, and Mongolian coal imports remain at a high level. The downstream winter - storage restocking is still in progress, and the upstream coal - mine inventory is being continuously digested. As the winter - storage inventory gradually reaches the target, the spot - market sentiment has cooled down, and the online auctions show mixed results, with the overall coal price weakly stable. The futures market oscillates due to the impact of capital - sentiment fluctuations. Before the Spring Festival, domestic coal - mine production will gradually decline, the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the fundamental bullish driving force is limited. The spot is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuation of the futures - market sentiment remains to be observed [12] 3.3 Alloys - **Manganese Silicon**: The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures market rises to a high level, it will face selling - hedging pressure. It is expected that the futures price of the main contract will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw - material prices and the change in manufacturers' production - control intensity [15] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The supply - and - demand situation is weak, and the fundamental driving force is limited. The low trading activity before the Spring Festival suppresses the upside space of the futures market. It is expected that the futures price will mainly oscillate around the cost valuation. Attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [16] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The supply has an expectation of disturbances, but the inventory of the middle and lower reaches is moderately high. Currently, the supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise [13] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production is continuously at a high level, and restocking is nearing the end. The overall supply - and - demand situation is still in oversupply. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the oversupply situation will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline to promote capacity reduction [13]

黑色建材日报 2026-02-03 黑色建材组 陈张滢 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133967 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 赵 航 从业资格号：F03133652 0755-23375155 zhao3@wkqh.cn 【行情资讯】 螺纹钢主力合约下午收盘价为 3098 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 30 元/吨（-0.95%）。当日注册仓单 14841 吨, 环比减少 2442 吨。主力合约持仓量为 178.41 万手，环比增加 49987 手。现货市场方面, 螺纹钢天津汇总 价格为 3170 元/吨, 环比减少 0/吨; 上海汇总价格为 3230 元/吨, 环比减少 20 元/吨。 热轧板卷主力合 约收盘价为 3261 元/吨, 较上一交易日跌 27 元/吨（-0.82%）。 当日注册仓单 199447 吨, 环比增加 9124 吨。主力合约持仓量为 149.88 万手，环比减少 30859 手。 现货方面, 热轧板卷乐从汇总价格为 3260 元 /吨, 环比减少 30 ...

光期研究 见微知著 铁合金策略月报 2026 年 2 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 铁合金：补库需求对价格有一定支撑 p 2 铁合金：补库需求价格有一定支撑 锰 硅 供应：产量同比下降。依据铁合金在线数据，12月全国锰硅产量92.85万吨，环比小幅增加，全年锰硅产量1089.05万吨，同比增加36万 吨，增幅为3.4%。截至1月30日当周，锰硅周产量19.24万吨，周产量及1月产量均同比下降。 需求：钢厂锰硅需求量当周值环比有所好转，节前备货对锰硅需求有一定支撑。12月我国粗钢产量6817.74万吨，同比下降10.26%。1- 12月累计同比下降4.41%。截至1月末，样本钢厂锰硅需求量当周值11.72万吨，环比增加0.3%。1月钢厂锰硅库存可用天数为17.48天，环比增 加1.96天，同比增加0.5天。 库存：样本企业库存小幅下降，仍是近年来同期新高。1月63家样本企业库存持续小幅下降，截至1月末为37.33万吨，同比增加22.28万 吨。 成本与利润：锰矿价格涨跌不一，即期生产成本月环比增加。依据铁合金在 ...

2026年2月2日 右安期賞研 商品情绪共振,宽幅震 品情绪共振 宽幅震荡 | 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0021184 | liyafei2@gtht.com | | --- | --- | | 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号: F03134630 | jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 资料来源:钢联、同花顺、国泰君安期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】 1、财联社: 【两部门】将通过容量电价回收煤电机组固定成本的比例提升至不低于 50%，完善电力市 场交易和价格机制 鼓励供需双方在中长期合同中签订随市场供需、发电成本变化的灵活价格机制。 2、铁合金在线: 1 月 30 日硅铁 72#: 陕西 5200-5300，宁夏 5300-5400（+25），青海 5250-5300 (+25)，甘肃 5250-5300 (+25)，内蒙 5300-5350 (+50)；75#硅铁：陕西 5850-5900，宁夏 5700- 5800,青海 5700-5800,甘肃 5650-5700,内蒙 5800-5850（现金含税自然块出厂,元/吨）；硅铁 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 品 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black series is currently in a bottom - game stage with a mix of long and short factors. In the short term, it will mainly fluctuate within a range, and the trend opportunity is not clear. Attention should be paid to inventory changes around the Spring Festival, the recovery of plate demand, and marginal adjustments to "dual - carbon" policies [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bulls are expected to continue. However, in the short term, factors such as the sharp adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the new Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of multiple US federal government departments may suppress the overall market atmosphere [8][14] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3128 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 17283 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.7341 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 51270 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3250 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [1] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3288 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton (- 0.60%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 190323 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2655 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.5297 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 17466 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak last Friday, and the prices of finished steel products continued to fluctuate within the bottom range. Domestically, the policy tone was relatively stable. Overseas, the market's dovish expectations declined, and commodity prices cooled down. The rebar output remained high, the apparent demand declined seasonally approaching the Spring Festival, and the inventory started to accumulate but the overall amplitude was controllable. The demand for hot - rolled coils was relatively stable, the output was moderately high, and the inventory continued to decline slightly [2] Iron Ore a. Market Information - Last Friday, the main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 791.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.88% (- 7.00). The position changed by - 14164 lots to 541200 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 894300 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 794 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 52.04 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.17% [3] b. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume increased slightly. The shipment volume from Australia increased month - on - month, and that from Brazil remained stable. The shipments of three major Australian mines increased, while that of Vale decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries declined from a high level. The recent arrival volume continued to decline. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output was 227.98 tons, a month - on - month slight decline. Some blast furnaces in certain regions were undergoing annual inspections, and the复产 of blast furnaces was mainly due to the end of maintenance. The profitability rate of steel mills declined slightly. In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching the highest level in the same period in the past five years, which put pressure on the absolute price. The inventory of imported ore in steel mills continued to rise, and steel mills continued to replenish their stocks before the festival. In general, the overseas supply was entering the off - season, the supply pressure was gradually alleviating, the structural inventory problem was not resolved, and the pre - festival procurement by steel mills after price decline provided some support. The short - term iron ore price was expected to fluctuate mainly [4] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.91% at 5872 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5780 yuan/ton, equivalent to 5970 yuan/ton on the futures market, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 98 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 1.32% at 5660 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a premium of 140 yuan/ton over the futures [7] - Last week, the prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon continued to fluctuate. The weekly weighted index of manganese silicon increased by 22 yuan/ton or + 0.38%, and that of ferrosilicon increased by 10 yuan/ton or + 0.18%. Technically, there was no obvious trend for both [7] b. Strategy Viewpoints - The recent sharp fluctuations in the commodity market were triggered by the appointment of the new Fed chairman, which led to expectations of a marginal tightening of the denominator. The previous strong - performing lithium carbonate also declined significantly, suppressing the overall commodity sentiment. However, the black sector was supported by the relaxation of the "three red lines" in the real estate industry and the successful extension of Vanke's debt. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue. In the short - term, factors such as the adjustment of precious metals, the appointment of the Fed chairman, and the "technical shutdown" of US federal government departments might suppress the market atmosphere. For manganese silicon, the supply - demand pattern was not ideal, but most of these factors were already reflected in the price. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand structure was basically balanced and was gradually improving. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon would be affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push factors for manganese silicon and supply - contraction factors for ferrosilicon [8][9] Coking Coal and Coke a. Market Information - On January 30th, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.82% at 1155.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1584.8 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1395 yuan/ton, with a premium of 239.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of medium - sulfur main - coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1284 yuan/ton, with a premium of 128.5 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulangjinquan Industrial Park was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1209 yuan/ton, with a premium of 53.5 yuan/ton over the futures [11] - The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.09% at 1721.5 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1725.5 yuan/ton, with a premium of 4 yuan/ton over the futures. The price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the equivalent price on the futures market was 1710.5 yuan/ton, with a discount of 11 yuan/ton to the futures [11][12] - Last week, the coking coal price continued to fluctuate widely, with a weekly increase of 0.5 yuan/ton or + 0.04%. The coke price continued to fluctuate, with a weekly decrease of 0.5 yuan/ton or - 0.03% [12] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Similar to the overall market situation, the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market affected coking coal and coke. The black sector had short - term emotional support. In the long - term, the commodity bulls were expected to continue, but in the short - term, market sentiment was suppressed. In terms of supply - demand, the supply - demand structure of coking coal and coke was gradually becoming looser. Although the downstream was still replenishing stocks, the inventory of coking coal in coking plants was approaching the level of the same period last year, and the willingness of downstream steel mills to replenish stocks was significantly weak. The short - term stock - replenishment was not expected to drive up prices strongly. However, the firm Australian coal prices and the US power shortage might have a positive impact on sentiment. In the context of global resource management, the "scarcity" premium of coking coal might be enhanced, providing some support for valuation. Overall, the short - term prices of coking coal and coke were expected to continue to fluctuate [13][14] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Market Information - Industrial silicon: Last Friday, the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) closed at 8850 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.84% (- 75). The weighted contract position changed by - 13784 lots to 353139 lots. In the spot market, the price of 553 non - oxygen - blown industrial silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 350 yuan/ton for the main contract. The price of 421 industrial silicon was 9650 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the basis for the main contract was 0 yuan/ton after conversion [16] - Polysilicon: Last Friday, the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) closed at 47140 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.45% (- 2195). The weighted contract position changed by - 710 lots to 76114 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 49 yuan/kg, down 0.5 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 50.5 yuan/kg, down 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 51.3 yuan/kg, down 1.2 yuan/kg from the previous day, with a basis of 4160 yuan/ton for the main contract [19] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: It showed a pattern of rising in the afternoon and then falling last Friday. In terms of supply, Sichuan's production enterprises maintained the furnace - shutdown state, and enterprises in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia reduced production, with the weekly output continuing to decline. In terms of demand, a leading polysilicon enterprise shut down completely, and some other enterprises reduced production. The demand for industrial silicon was generally weak. In February, the production - reduction plan of a large factory in Xinjiang entered the implementation period. If the plan was implemented as rumored, the supply - demand balance sheet in February was expected to improve, and the sustainability depended on the shutdown duration. Overall, there was an expectation of improved supply - demand in the short - term, and the supply contraction provided strong support for the price. However, considering the approaching Spring Festival and the weakening downstream, the price was expected to fluctuate mainly [17][18] - Polysilicon: In the spot market, the price negotiation was intense, and the market information was chaotic. The downstream's acceptance of high prices was low, and some enterprises tried to lower the prices. The actual transaction prices declined. The silicon wafer segment was also under pressure, and the price of silicon materials weakened, which reduced the cost support. The terminal component prices continued to rise, and the battery segment's price continued to rise due to non - silicon costs and overseas demand. The supply - demand pattern was expected to improve in the first quarter as a leading enterprise shut down and some other enterprises reduced production. Policy expectations were expected to provide support for prices. The futures position and liquidity of polysilicon had fallen to a relatively low level since listing, and the futures price was expected to be under pressure due to the weakening spot prices. Attention should be paid to the feedback of terminal demand and possible new policy adjustments [20] Glass and Soda Ash a. Market Information - Glass: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1087 yuan/ton, up 1.87% (+ 20) from the previous day. The price of large - size glass in North China was 1020 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 52.564 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 651,800 cases (- 1.22%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 8027 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 69570 lots [22] - Soda ash: On Friday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1224 yuan/ton, up 2.17% (+ 26) from the previous day. The price of heavy - soda ash in Shahe was 1184 yuan, up 26 yuan from the previous day. On January 30th, the weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.5442 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 23,000 tons (+ 1.22%), including 716,100 tons of heavy - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 19,400 tons, and 828,100 tons of light - soda ash inventory, a month - on - month increase of 3600 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 11413 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 8239 lots [24] b. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: As the Spring Festival approached, the downstream processing plants were approaching the end of work, the market demand was weakening, the trading activity was decreasing, and the procurement was mainly for rigid demand. The inventory - building was almost completed. In terms of supply, a production line was restarted and ignited recently, and there was no cold - repair plan, so the overall production capacity remained stable. The demand was limited due to the Spring Festival seasonality. Overall, the market lacked strong driving factors, the wait - and - see sentiment was strong, and manufacturers were not willing to adjust prices. Most of them aimed to maintain stable prices, promote sales, and reduce inventory. The float - glass market was expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [23] - Soda ash: The supply in the industry remained loose. The short - stopped devices such as Jiangsu Huachang had resumed operation, and the new production capacity was gradually being released, with the supply continuing to show an increasing trend. The demand side remained weak, with downstream enterprises mainly making rigid - demand purchases. Only a few enterprises made appropriate inventory - building before the festival, and the overall wait - and - see sentiment was strong, with limited order growth. Overall, the current supply - demand structure of the soda - ash market was relatively loose, downstream purchasing was cautious, and the price lacked upward - driving force. The market was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly and steadily in the short - term, with the main contract reference range of 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon iron, prices vary by region and type. For example, the latest price of Ningxia 72 silicon iron natural block is 5350, with a weekly increase of 50; the latest price of Tianjin 72 silicon iron export is 1055 (in US dollars), with a weekly increase of 10. For silicon manganese, the latest price of Inner Mongolia 6517 silicon manganese is 5700, with a daily increase of 30 and a weekly increase of 20 [1]. - Multiple charts show the price trends of different types of silicon iron and silicon manganese in various regions from 2022 - 2026, including market prices, export and import average prices, and contract closing prices [2][5]. Supply - Charts display the production and capacity utilization of 136 silicon - iron enterprises in China from 2022 - 2026, including monthly production, weekly production (with a capacity share of 95%), and monthly capacity utilization in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi. Also shows the production of silicon manganese in China from 2022 - 2026 [3][5]. - The production of silicon iron and silicon manganese is affected by factors such as enterprise capacity utilization and production scale [3][5]. Demand - Charts present the demand - related data of silicon iron and silicon manganese from 2022 - 2026, including the estimated and actual production of crude steel in China, the production of stainless - steel crude steel in China, the procurement volume and price of silicon iron and silicon manganese by Hebei Iron and Steel Group, and the demand for silicon manganese in China (according to Steel Union's data) [3][6]. - The demand for silicon iron and silicon manganese is related to the steel industry and other downstream industries [3][6]. Inventory - For silicon iron, charts show the inventory data of 60 sample enterprises in China, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi from 2022 - 2026, as well as the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, and inventory average available days in different regions. For silicon manganese, it shows the warehouse receipt quantity, effective forecast, warehouse receipt + effective inventory, and inventory average available days in China from 2022 - 2026 [4][6]. - Inventory levels are affected by production, demand, and market trading activities [4][6]. Cost and Profit - For silicon iron, the cost and profit data include electricity prices in different regions, the market price of semi - coke, the production cost and profit in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia. For silicon manganese, it includes the cost of raw materials such as chemical coke, manganese ore, and the profit in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, and other regions [4][6]. - Cost and profit are affected by factors such as raw material prices, electricity prices, and market selling prices [4][6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - This week, the double-silicon futures market maintained a volatile trend, with narrowing price fluctuations, presenting a game between cost support under macro - policy guidance and fundamentals. The implementation of NDRC Document No. 114 on improving the capacity tariff mechanism for the power generation side may significantly raise the structural cost bottom of double - silicon. [5] - Macroscopically, domestically, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year; overseas, the sharp rise and fall of gold prices have affected commodity sentiment, and Trump announced that Kevin Warsh will be the Chairman of the Federal Reserve. [5] - Microscopically, the molten iron output decreased slightly, and the steel mills' alloy restocking before the Spring Festival may have ended, resulting in weak support for raw material demand. [5] - Fundamentally, the logics of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese remain differentiated. The supply of ferrosilicon has slightly increased, but the fundamental pressure is acceptable due to the continuous reduction of warehouse receipts. The supply of silicomanganese has declined due to production cuts in the southern region, but the upward space is significantly restricted by the substantial increase in warehouse - receipt inventory. Considering the increase in the inventory usage days brought by the pre - festival restocking of steel mills, the demand side still shows resilience. In the short term, the prices of double - silicon will maintain a range - bound oscillation between the expectation of rising costs and the actual inventory pressure. Attention should be paid to the specific implementation of electricity price regulations in major production areas and the pace of post - festival demand recovery. [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - This week, the price of the ferrosilicon 2603 contract fluctuated, closing at 5,652 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 8 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 788,860 lots and an open interest of 111,150 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 104,761 lots. [8] - This week, the price of the silicomanganese 2605 contract was firm, closing at 5,872 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 818,531 lots and an open interest of 361,914 lots, a week - on - week increase of 13,356 lots. [8] - This week, the spot prices of ferrosilicon in major regions across the country showed a slight upward trend. The aggregated quotation of 75B ferrosilicon in major production areas was 5,250 - 5,350 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week change of 0 - 50 yuan/ton. [9] - This week, the aggregated quotation range of silicomanganese spot in major regions across the country was 5,480 - 5,800 yuan/ton, with a price fluctuation of - 10 - 80 yuan/ton. [9] 2. Silicomanganese Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of silicomanganese was 192,400 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 800 tons, with a change rate of - 0.4%. The weekly operating rate was 36.21%, unchanged from last week. The production reduction was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 25%. [12][13] Demand - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The output of building materials increased year - on - year and week - on - week, providing some support for the demand for silicomanganese. [20] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 63 silicomanganese sample enterprises in the country was 373,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 300 tons. [27] - As of January 30, the number of silicomanganese warehouse receipts was 37,913, a week - on - week increase of 2,382, an increase of 11,910 tons, and the current converted inventory was 189,565 tons. [27] - In January, the average available days of silicomanganese inventory in steel mills was 17.48 days (+1.96 days), 15.1 days in the northern region (+1.31 days), 18.95 days in the eastern region (+1.43 days), and 20.91 days in the southern region (+4.64 days). [27] Manganese Ore - The global manganese ore shipment volume has returned to the previous high level, and the short - term supply - demand of manganese ore is in a weak balance. [31] - The manganese ore port clearance volume remains at a high level, and the pace of ore preparation may slow down before the Spring Festival. [32] - Overseas mining enterprises' quotations have increased, and the price of oxidized ore at the port has slightly loosened. [38] Cost and Profit - The cost center is relatively stable, and the futures market profit has increased with the market. [41] 3. Ferrosilicon Fundamental Data Supply - The weekly output of ferrosilicon was 98,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 29.12%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points. The production increase was mainly contributed by Inner Mongolia, with a contribution rate of 100%. [45][46] Demand - The production of stainless - steel crude steel in December was 282,840 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 220,000 tons. The export volume of ferrosilicon in December was 33,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6%. [53] - From the performance of downstream steel mills, the actual output of molten iron decreased slightly. Taking 247 steel enterprises as an example, the blast furnace operating rate this week was 85.47%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 percentage points; the daily average molten iron output was 227,980 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,200 tons. The total output of magnesium metal in January was 90,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 28.2%. [58] Inventory - As of January 30, the inventory of 60 ferrosilicon sample enterprises in the country was 67,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 680 tons. [60] - As of January 30, the number of ferrosilicon warehouse receipts was 8,560, a week - on - week decrease of 600, a decrease of 3,000 tons, and the current converted inventory was 42,800 tons. [60] - In January, the average available days of ferrosilicon inventory in steel mills was 17.52 days (+2.11 days), 15.52 days in the northern region (+1.76 days), 18.43 days in the eastern region (+1.38 days), and 21.09 days in the southern region (+4.45 days). [60] Profit - The profit of ferrosilicon has increased with the market. Attention should be paid to the pre - festival operating rhythm of factories. [65]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2026-01-30锰硅早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 锰硅2605： 2 1.基本面：从成本端来看，整体锰矿成交价格略有回调，但整体成交价格仍处于高位，对硅锰合金价格仍有较强成本支 撑；2026年内蒙地区电价以及南方电价正在验证中。从供应端来看，前期北方主产区新增硅锰炉子点火，普硅硅锰产能增 加，本月相继出铁，供应压力增加。南方合金厂开工率稳定较低，据了解，2026年广西、贵州电费优惠政策力度有待验 证，大多依旧维持避峰生产，存在厂家选择暂时停产，等待1月底的电费结算价格。当前硅锰供应宽松压力仍存。从需求 端来看，河钢集团26年1月硅锰采量17000吨，对比12月采量：14700吨，数量增加；硅锰定价5920元/吨，对比12月硅锰定 价：5770元/吨，定价上 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways, and hot-rolled coil basis trading and futures-cash arbitrage can be considered. [2] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to rebound due to improved market sentiment, but the fundamentals remain under pressure in the medium term. [3] - The coking coal and coke market is affected by the off-season and limited upward and downward drivers. After the first round of coke price increase, pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] - Iron ore prices are supported in the short term by the "restart + restocking" expectation but face long-term pressure from port inventories. [6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On January 29, the closing prices of far-month contracts RB2610, HC2610, 12609, J2609, and JM2609 were 3203.00, 3330.00, 779.00, 1791.50, and 1242.50 yuan/ton respectively, with varying increases. [1] - The closing prices of near-month contracts RB2605, HC2605, 12605, J2605, and JM2605 were 3157.00, 3308.00, 798.50, 1723.00, and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, also with varying increases. [1] - The cross-month spreads of RB2605 - 2610, HC2605 - 2610, 12605 - 2609, J2605 - 2609, and JM2605 - 2609 were -46.00, -22.00, 19.50, -68.50, and -77.50 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - The spreads/ratios/profits such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, coal - coke ratio, rebar disk profit, and coking disk profit had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] Spot Market - On January 29, the spot prices of Shanghai rebar, Tianjin rebar, Guangzhou rebar, Tangshan billet, and the Platts Index were 3280.00, 3190.00, 3410.00, 2950.00, and 104.15 yuan/ton respectively, with corresponding changes. [1] - The spot prices of Shanghai hot - rolled coil, Hangzhou hot - rolled coil, Guangzhou hot - rolled coil, billet - product spread, and Rizhao Port PB had specific values and changes on January 29. [1] - The spot prices of Qingdao Port super - special powder, etc. also had corresponding values and changes on January 29. [1] - The basis values of HC, RB, etc. and their changes on January 29 were provided. [1] Steel - The steel market is in a slow season with limited demand support. Steel prices are expected to move sideways. The actual resumption of production by steel mills may be slow. Traders are less willing to do open - position winter storage and are more suitable to participate through basis trading. Hot - rolled coil basis is favorable for futures - cash positions, and hot - rolled coil futures - cash arbitrage can be rolled. [2] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - With the warming of market sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating upwards. The demand is weak in the short term, and the supply is high in the medium term. The domestic macro - policy is favorable. In general, the short - term market sentiment dominates, and the prices may be strongly oscillating. [3] Coking Coal and Coke - The first round of coke price increase has finally landed, but the market is not optimistic about the future. The downstream procurement is cautious. The coking coal online auction has many unsuccessful bids. The futures market is affected by the relaxation of the "three red lines" for real - estate enterprises and the stock market rebound. The steel market is in a slow season, and the industry data is weak. The coal mine supply continues to recover, and the downstream has pre - Spring Festival restocking. The short - term first - round price increase and news drive the disk rebound, but pay attention to selling opportunities on rallies. [5] Iron Ore - The steel mill's in - plant inventory is low. The expectation of steel mill restart and pre - Spring Festival restocking supports the iron ore price in the short term. After the restocking expectation is fully digested, the port inventory pressure will be the source of pressure. The short - term pattern is oscillating strongly, but the medium - long - term pressure is obvious. [6]

黑色板块研发报告 铁合金 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 低估值有修复需求，价格震荡偏强 第一部分 前言概要 【市场展望】 硅铁方面，供应端持续处于低位，同时陕西差别电价文件发布后，当地 企业存在技术改造需求，供应端仍有收缩预期。需求端，近期钢材利润有所 修复，但钢材库存开始季节性累积，预计 2 月铁水产量在春节前后先抑后扬。 总体来看，基本面目前供需双弱，未来有边际改善预期。成本方面，主产区 电价平稳运行，部分产区电价仍有上调预期。硅铁目前估值水平偏低，2 月 价格震荡偏强为主。 锰硅方面，样本内企业产量低位继续下降，但1 月有部分新增产能投产， 整体供应端平稳为主。需求端，近期钢材利润有所修复，但钢材库存开始季 节性累积，预计 2 月铁水产量在春节前后先抑后扬。成本端，锰矿港口库存 低于往年同期均值约 100 万吨，现货价格坚挺，海外矿山 2 月报价均有小 幅上涨。锰硅估值水平偏低，2 月或震荡偏强。 【策略推荐】 1.单边：供需双弱但成本支撑较强，估值水平偏低，价格震荡偏强。 2.套利：观望。 3.期权：逢高卖出看跌期权。 交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1428 号 研究员：周涛 电 ...