Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

| 股指期货价差日报 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 | Z0016628 | 叶倩宁 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年12月17日 | 品种 | 最新值 | 较前一日变化 | 历史1年分位数 | 全历史分位数 | 价差 | | | | | | | | | | | F期现价差 | 1.85 | 8.31 | 89.30% | 68.9096 | -3.39 | 43.80% | H期现价来 | -0.12 | 39.60% | 期现价差 | IC用现价差 | | | | | | 8 88 | 7.04 | 99.10% | 93.70% | 7.38 | 92.80% | IM期现价差 | 8.06 | 95.00% | 次月-当月 | -19.40 | -1.60 | 20.90% | 23.40% | | | | -48.00 | 零月-当月 | 21.30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The 12 - contract follows the delivery logic. P1 is announced as 1510.56 points (lower than expected), and P2 and P3 are expected to be between 1700 - 1750 points [3]. - The valuation of the 02 - contract is moderately high. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and follow the spot price trend later. The current spot market is strong and recovering. Historically, the freight rate peaks usually occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (corresponding to mid - to late January 2026). However, the high shipping capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - The short - term downside space of the 04 - contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the 04 - contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Contracts - **Closing Price and Changes**: EC2512 closed at 1649.8 with a - 0.01% change; EC2602 at 1746.0 with a 4.06% change; EC2604 at 1149.7 with a 3.95% change; EC2606 at 1306.7 with a 3.64% change; EC2608 at 1479.9 with a 3.37% change; EC2610 at 1053.8 with a 2.31% change [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of EC2512 was 274, and the open interest was 2724 with a change of - 223; for EC2602, the trading volume was 28275, and the open interest was 33065 with a change of 1401; for EC2604, the trading volume was 7432, and the open interest was 19657 with a change of - 276; for EC2606, the trading volume was 6/9 (unclear), and the open interest was 2335 with a change of - 20; for EC2608, the trading volume was 402, and the open interest was 1441 with a change of - 114; for EC2610, the trading volume was 1000, and the open interest was 4739 with a change of 157 [2]. - **Month - to - Month Spreads**: EC2512 - 2504 was 500.1 with a day - on - day change of - 43.9 and a week - on - week change of - 65.6; EC2512 - 2602 was - 96.2 with a day - on - day change of - 68.4 and a week - on - week change of - 144.9; EC2502 - 2604 was 596.3 with a day - on - day change of 24.5 and a week - on - week change of 79.3 [2]. Spot Market - **Spot Indexes**: The SCFIS (European Line) on 2025/12/15 was 1510.56 points with a 0.10% change from the previous period. The SCFI (European Line) on 2025/12/12 was 1538 dollars/TEU with a 9.86% change; the CCFI was 1470.55 points with a 1.59% change; the NCFI was 1064.13 points with a 9.98% change [2]. - **Shipping Company Quotes**: In Week51, MSK opened at 2400 (a 200 increase from the previous week), MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700, and PA quoted 2400 dollars. The current central price was 1760 dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures. In Week52, MSK opened at 2300 (a 100 decrease from the previous week), and the other companies mainly followed Week51's quotes. In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 dollars respectively. On Monday, MSC opened at 2864 dollars (a 200 increase from the previous week), equivalent to 2000 points on the futures [4].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The December contract follows the delivery logic, with a small deviation and low positions [3] - The February contract has a moderately high valuation, and is expected to move sideways in the short - term. Looking ahead, the driving force is upward due to strong and recovering cargo volume. Historically, freight rate peaks often occur 4 - 5 weeks before the Spring Festival (mid - to late January 2026), but the high capacity in January 2026 may suppress the peak. At the current valuation, it is recommended to wait and see [3] - The April contract has limited short - term downside. Attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when the April contract may rise following the near - month contracts [3] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - EC2512: Yesterday's closing price was 1650.0, with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of - 140.9, trading volume of 245, and an open interest of 2947 with a decrease of 84 [2] - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1677.8, with a decline of 0.66%, a basis of - 168.7, trading volume of 27001, and an open interest of 31664 with an increase of 41 [2] - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1106.0, with an increase of 1.22%, a basis of 403.1, trading volume of 10155, and an open interest of 19930 [2] - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1260.8, with an increase of 2.71%, a basis of 248.3, trading volume of 790, and an open interest of 2355 with an increase of 59 [2] - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1431.7, with an increase of 3.61%, a basis of 77.4, trading volume of 763 [2] - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1030.0, with an increase of 0.82%, a basis of 479.1, trading volume of 813, and an open interest of 4582 with an increase of 291 [2] Month - to - Month Spreads - EC2512 - 2504: The previous day's value was 544.0, with a daily decrease of 16.4 and a weekly decrease of 15.0 [2] - EC2512 - 2602: The previous day's value was - 27.8, with a daily increase of 8.1 and a weekly decrease of 91.9 [2] - EC2502 - 2604: The previous day's value was 571.8, with a daily decrease of 24.5 and a weekly increase of 76.9 [2] Spot Freight Rate Index - SCFIS: Updated every Monday, as of December 8, 2025, it was 1509.10 points, with a 1.72% increase from the previous period and a - 9.50% decrease from the period before [2] - SCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1538 dollars/TEU, with a 9.86% increase from the previous period and a - 0.28% decrease from the period before [2] - CCFI (European Line): Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1470.55 points, with a 1.59% increase from the previous period and a - 0.12% decrease from the period before [2] - NCFI: Updated every week, as of December 12, 2025, it was 1064.13 points, with a 9.98% increase from the previous period and a - 5.57% decrease from the period before [2] European Line Spot Situation - Week 50: The central price was 2200 US dollars, equivalent to 1540 points on the futures market [3] - Week 51: MSK opened at 2400 US dollars (a 200 - dollar increase from the previous week); MSC and OA quoted 2600 - 2700 US dollars, and PA quoted 2400 US dollars. The current central price is 1760 US dollars, equivalent to about 1760 points on the futures market [3] - Week 52: MSK opened at 2300 US dollars (a 100 - dollar decrease from the previous week), and other companies mainly followed the Week 51 prices [8] Related News - On December 13, 2025, MSC issued a price - increase letter for January, raising the freight rates for 20 - foot and 40 - foot containers on European lines to 2220 and 3700 US dollars respectively [4] - On December 12, 2025, the EU Council agreed to impose a fixed tariff of 3 euros on small packages worth less than 150 euros entering the EU through e - commerce from July 1, 2026 [4] - On December 12, 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu held a meeting with the security cabinet, worrying about a potential military operation in Lebanon [4] - US officials said that the Gaza International Stabilization Force may be deployed as early as next month, but how to disarm Hamas remains unclear [4] Future Price Increase Plans - In January, MSK and MSC announced price increases to 3500 and 3700 US dollars respectively [7]

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The core issue lies in the direction of spot freight rates, with the tariff issue showing a marginal effect. The main contract has seen a seasonal rebound, so it is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [2]. - The short - term strategy for freight rate trends is that the logic returns to traditional seasonality and the resumption of shipping in the Red Sea. Currently, the spot price has slightly decreased. For risk - takers, it is advised to close all positions in the main contract, not to add more positions or hold losing positions, and to set stop - losses [2]. - In the context of international turmoil, the contracts follow seasonal logic with large fluctuations. For the arbitrage strategy, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For the long - term strategy, it is advised to take profits when the contracts reach a high point, wait for the correction to stabilize, and then make further judgments [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Freight Rate Index - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1509.10 points, up 1.7% from the previous period; for the US - West route, it was 960.51 points, up 1.2% from the previous period. The Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 972.63 points, up 2.77% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [1]. - On December 5, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) published price was 1397.63 points, down 5.5 points from the previous period; the European line price was 1400 USD/TEU, down 0.28% from the previous period. The China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1121.80 points, down 0.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1449.34 points, up 1.1% from the previous period [1]. - On December 8, the NCFI for the US - West route was 881.66 points, down 7.77% from the previous period. The SCFI for the US - West route was 1550 USD/FEU, down 5.02% from the previous period. The CCFI for the US - West route was 841.86 points, down 1.1% from the previous period [1]. Economic Data - In October, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. The composite PMI output index was 50.0%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating overall stability in business production and operation activities [2]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Services PMI in October was 55.2 (expected 53.5, previous value 54.2); the preliminary value of the manufacturing PMI was 52.2 (expected 52, previous value 52); the preliminary value of the composite PMI was 54.8 (expected 53.1, previous value 53.9) [2]. - The preliminary value of the eurozone's composite PMI in November was 52.4, slightly lower than the October figure of 52.5, remaining above the boom - bust line of 50. The preliminary value of the service industry PMI was 53.1, higher than the previous value of 53 and better than the expected value of 52.8, achieving the best monthly performance in a year and a half. The eurozone's Sentix investor confidence index in December was - 6.2 (expected - 7, previous value - 7.4) [1]. Contract Information - On December 11, the main contract 2602 closed at 1689.0, with a gain of 2.04%, a trading volume of 18,700 lots, and an open interest of 31,600 lots, an increase of 241 lots from the previous day [2]. - The daily price limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18% [2]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 28% [2]. - The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [2].

1. Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - The reports present daily data on various financial products including stock index futures spreads, bond futures spreads, precious metals spot - futures, and container shipping industry spot - futures. They offer detailed information on price changes, historical quantiles, and related market indicators to help investors understand market trends and price relationships. 3. Summary by Category Stock Index Futures Spreads - **Price - Spot Spread**: For example, the IF price - spot spread was - 2.60, the IH price - spot spread was - 7.84, the IC price - spot spread was - 33.79, and the IM price - spot spread was - 36.84 on the reporting date. The historical 1 - year and full - history quantiles of these spreads are also provided [1]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Different contracts' inter - period spreads such as next month - current month, far month - next month are presented with their latest values, changes from the previous day, and historical quantiles [1]. - **Cross - variety Ratio**: Ratios like CSI 500/CSI 300, IC/IF, etc. are given along with their historical quantiles [1]. Bond Futures Spreads - **IRR and Basis**: IRR values and basis data for different bonds are provided, including the 15 - bond set with an IRR of 1.6378, and basis values for T, TF, TS, etc. with their changes from the previous day and historical quantiles [2]. - **Inter - period Spread**: Inter - period spreads for different bond contracts such as TS, TF, T, TL are presented, along with their changes and historical quantiles [2]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: Cross - variety spreads like TS - TF, TF - T, etc. are given with their values and historical quantiles [2]. Precious Metals Spot - Futures - **Domestic and Overseas Futures Closing Prices**: Closing prices of domestic and overseas precious metal futures contracts (such as AU2602, COMEX gold, etc.) on December 10 and December 9 are provided, along with price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Spot Prices**: Spot prices of precious metals (such as London gold, Shanghai Gold Exchange gold + D, etc.) on December 10 and December 9 are presented, along with price changes and percentage changes [3]. - **Basis and Ratio**: Basis values (e.g., gold TD - Shanghai gold main contract) and price ratios (e.g., COMEX gold/silver) are given with their changes and historical quantiles [3]. - **Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, Inventory, and Positions**: Data on interest rates (10 - year US Treasury yield, etc.), exchange rates (USD index, etc.), inventory (Shanghai Futures Exchange gold inventory, etc.), and positions (SPRD gold ETF position, etc.) are provided [3]. Container Shipping Industry Spot - Futures - **Shipping Index**: Settlement price indices of SCFIS (European and US - West routes) and Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) are presented with their changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Futures Prices and Basis**: Futures prices of different contracts (EC2602, etc.) and the basis of the main contract are provided, along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: Data on container shipping industry fundamentals including global container shipping capacity supply, port - related indicators (Shanghai port on - time rate, etc.), monthly export amount, and overseas economic indicators (euro - zone PMI, etc.) are provided [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: December 10, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index rebounded slightly this week, and shipping companies' price hikes boosted market sentiment. There may be an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush. It's hard to prove if the EC2602 contract is overvalued in the short term, and short - selling has low cost - effectiveness. Attention should be paid to the possibility of the off - season April contract being overvalued and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot market: The SCFIS index rebounded slightly this week. Shipping companies like Maersk, HPL, and Premier Alliance announced price hikes, which may boost the pre - Spring Festival price increase expectation. It's hard to prove the overvaluation of the EC2602 contract in the short term, and short - selling has low cost - effectiveness. Attention should be paid to the overvaluation possibility of the April contract and the positive spread trading opportunity between EC2602 and EC2604 [8] 2. Industry News - From December 1 to 5, the China export container shipping market was stable. The comprehensive index declined slightly, with different trends in various routes. The eurozone's economic recovery was weak, the US economic recovery outlook was not optimistic, and shipping companies like Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases. There were also political and military news related to the Middle East and shipping route news about Maersk's potential return to the Red Sea - Suez Canal [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - On December 8, 2025, compared with December 1, the SCFIS for the European route increased by 25.45 points (1.7%), and for the US West route increased by 11.74 points (1.2%) [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Route) Futures Market - Provided the trading data of container shipping European route futures on December 9, including contract information such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., with details on opening price, closing price, settlement price, etc. [6] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Charts - Included charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates, etc. [19][23]

Report Overview - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Report Date: December 9, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Macro Finance Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded this week, and shipping companies have announced price increases, boosting market sentiment. The possibility that Contract 02 is overvalued cannot be easily verified in the short - term, and the cost - effectiveness of short - selling is low. Attention should be paid to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season is overvalued due to the impact, and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 and 04 should be noted [8] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Spot Market**: The SCFIS index has slightly rebounded this week, and major shipping companies such as Maersk, HPL, and Premier Alliance have announced price increases, which may boost the market's expectation of price increases before the Spring Festival. There may be an incentive game for the pre - Spring Festival shipping rush. It's hard to prove whether Contract 02 is overvalued in the short - term, and short - selling is not cost - effective. Attention should be paid to the possibility that the April contract in the off - season is overvalued, and the positive spread trading opportunity between 02 and 04 [8] 3.2 Industry News - **China's Export Container Shipping Market**: From December 1 to December 5, the market remained stable. The comprehensive index slightly declined due to different supply - demand fundamentals and price fluctuations in ocean routes. China's November official manufacturing PMI rose to 49.2, indicating an improvement in the manufacturing industry [9] - **European Routes**: The eurozone's October unemployment rate was 6.4%, slightly higher than the previous value, showing weak economic recovery momentum. Transport demand was relatively stable this week, and market freight rates slightly declined. On December 5, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports was $1400/TEU, a 0.3% decrease from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: The market situation was basically in sync with European routes, with a slightly better supply - demand situation. The spot booking price slightly increased. On December 5, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports was $2300/TEU, a 3.0% increase from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The US November ADP employment decreased by 32,000, and the ISM manufacturing PMI index dropped to 48.2, indicating poor economic recovery prospects. Transport demand growth was weak this week, and the spot booking price declined. On December 5, the freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports were $1550/FEU and $2315/FEU respectively, down 5.0% and 4.7% from the previous period [10] - **Other News**: Maersk and Hapag - Lloyd announced PSS increases for some routes. There were also political and military news related to the Middle East and Israel, as well as news about Maersk's possible resumption of Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation and Israeli political events [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - **SCFIS Index**: On December 8, 2025, the SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) was 1509.1, up 25.45 (1.7%) from December 1; the SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) was 960.51, up 11.74 (1.2%) from December 1 [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market** - **Trading Data on December 8**: For different contracts such as EC2512, EC2602, etc., details of opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, price change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change are provided [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Charts** - Multiple charts are presented, including those related to container shipping spot prices, container shipping index (European routes) futures trends, European container ship capacity, global container ship orders, and Shanghai - Europe basic port freight rates [13][18][19][23]

Core Viewpoint - Hai Feng International (01308) shares rose over 3%, currently trading at HKD 27.92 with a transaction volume of HKD 53.49 million, following the announcement of a board meeting to consider a special dividend on December 18 [1] Company Summary - The board of Hai Feng International will meet to consider and approve the declaration of a special dividend, with further details to be announced post-meeting [1] - The company's stock price increased by 3.03% as of the latest update [1] Industry Summary - Huatai Securities anticipates a significant rebound in freight rates and cargo volumes in Q4 due to seasonal demand [1] - Despite disruptions in the container shipping market from tariffs, geopolitical events, and seasonality, the outlook remains positive for cargo volume growth driven by industry restructuring in the Asian region [1] - The supply of small and medium-sized container ships is tightening, indicating resilience and growth potential in the Asian container shipping market [1]

Group 1: Futures Contract Information - EC2512 had a yesterday's closing price of 1649.1 with a decline of 0.27%, a basis of -165.5, a trading volume of 270, an open interest of 3731, and an open interest change of -82 [2] - EC2602 had a price of 1585.0 with an increase of 2.92%, a basis of -101.4, a trading volume of 27304, an open interest of 34222, and an open interest change of -786 [2] - EC2604 had a price of 1090.1 with an increase of 0.65%, a basis of 393.6, a trading volume of 2881, an open interest of 19129, and an open interest change of 132 [2] - EC2606 had a price of 1255.1 with an increase of 0.05%, a basis of 228.6, a trading volume of 178, an open interest of 2141, and an open interest change of -26 [2] - EC2608 had a price of 1385.6 with an increase of 0.40%, a basis of 98.1, a trading volume of 125, an open interest of 1549, and an open interest change of -28 [2] - EC2610 had a price of 1040.2 with a decline of 0.19%, a basis of 443.5, a trading volume of 297, an open interest of 3961, and an open interest change of 72 [2] Group 2: Spread Information - The EC2512 - 2504 spread was 559.0, compared to 561.5 the day before yesterday with a change of -11.4 [2] - The EC2512 - 2602 spread was 64.1, compared to 113.4 the day before yesterday with a change of -49.3 [2] - The EC2502 - 2604 spread was 401, compared to 457.0 the day before yesterday with a change of 37.9 [2] Group 3: Spot Index Information - The SCHIS index on 2025/12/1 was 1483.65, down 9.50% from the previous period [2] - The SCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1404 dollars/TEU, up 2.71% from the previous period [2] - The CCFI (European line) on 2025/11/28 was 1449.34 points, up 1.14% from the previous period [2] - The NCFI on 2025/11/28 was 1024.64 points, up 7.67% from the previous period [2] Group 4: Market Analysis and Outlook - The December contract is moving towards the delivery logic, with P1 around 1550 points. P2 and P3 are对标 to the second - half of December cabin positions, and the price is expected to be stable with a slight increase [3] - The 02 contract has a neutral valuation, follows the spot price in the short - term, and there is a game for the peak - season height. Although high capacity limits the upside, there is no overly pessimistic expectation due to the late Spring Festival, strong cargo volume on the European line this year, and the 02 contract covering the freight rates from the second - half of January to the first ten days of February [3] - The 04 contract has limited short - term downside space, and attention should be paid to the short - selling opportunities when it follows the near - month contracts to rise [3] Group 5: Recent Spot Market Situation - The price increase announcement in the first half of December failed. In Week 49, the average was 2360 dollars, equivalent to 1650 points on the futures market [4] - In Week 50, MSK's cabin opening price dropped to 2200 dollars, and other shipping companies followed suit. The current central price is 2270 dollars, equivalent to 1580 points on the futures market [4] - On Monday, YML reduced the price of two ships in Week 50 by 150 to 1750 dollars, while MSC increased it by 200 to 2600 dollars [4] - It is expected that shipping companies will announce price increases for January cabins in early December. MSK's opening price for Week 51 is 2400 dollars, a 200 - dollar increase from the previous period, equivalent to 1660 points on the futures market [4] - On Thursday, MSK issued a price - increase notice for January European lines, with the price rising to 3500 dollars [4]