| | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/5/20 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 合约 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 (%) | 基差 | 昨日成交量 | 昨日持仓量 | | 持仓变动 | | | EC2506 | | 17722 | 5.18 | -506.9 | 71025 | | 28322 | -5885 | | | EC2508 | | 2387.9 | 4.73 | -1122.6 | 85052 | | 54051 | 5292 | | | EC2510 | | 1482.1 | 2.57 | -216.8 | 23990 | | 24236 | 678 | | | EC2512 | | 1625.2 | 1.89 | -3 ਦੇਰੇ ਰੇ | કેત્રેર | | 4998 | -140 | | | EC2602 | | 1451.2 | 2.23 | -185.9 | 1260 | | 3081 | -133 | | 期待 | EC2604 | | 1249. ...

研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 20 日 ＃summary＃ 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 当日行情： 中美贸易进展好于预期提振市场需求，欧线开始回归年中旺季涨价逻辑，从 电商平台报价来看，近期航司开始调涨 5 月末及 6 月运价，其中 5 月下旬报价较 前期小幅调涨，目前大柜报集中在 1500~1900 美元区间、较前期变动不大，6 月 初报价则大幅提涨，报价区间集中在 3000~3500 美元区间，提涨幅度高达 100%， 但落地成色仍需观察，短期或继续针对涨价预期博弈，关注"报价地板"马士基 后期对 6 月报价的定位，若提涨幅度不足可能打击短期情绪。 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the container shipping industry, particularly focusing on the impacts of U.S.-China trade relations and tariff policies on shipping demand and pricing dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Tariff Impact on Demand**: The average tariffs between the U.S. and China are currently between 48% and 55%, significantly pressuring Chinese manufacturing and potentially affecting corporate profitability and stock performance [1][3][4]. - **Shipping Rate Increases**: Container shipping companies have rapidly increased rates, with prices on the West Coast reaching $3,000 and the East Coast hitting $4,000. This reflects an intention to recover previous losses and enter a profit growth phase [1][5]. - **Inventory Replenishment Trends**: Although U.S. container imports are higher than last year, there has been a decline in freight volume between China and the U.S. from mid-April to mid-May, indicating that actual replenishment efforts are below expectations [1][8]. - **Supply Constraints**: The West Coast is experiencing a significant under-allocation of shipping capacity, which is expected to lead to a new round of price increases in June, potentially surpassing historical highs [1][10]. - **Future Demand Projections**: U.S. goods demand is expected to be stronger in 2025 compared to 2024, but there may be a cooling period post-tariff adjustments. Overall freight volume is anticipated to increase throughout the year [1][11][12]. Additional Important Insights - **Regional Pricing Dynamics**: The concentration of capacity allocation on South American routes is leading to price increases, while the overall impact on other routes remains limited [3][13]. - **Market Adjustments by Smaller Companies**: Smaller shipping companies in Southeast Asia are adjusting their routes to capitalize on profit opportunities, indicating a competitive market environment [14][16]. - **ETF and Stock Performance**: The expansion of ETF sizes and the inclusion of companies like COSCO Shipping Holdings in dividend indices are changing stock pricing models, leading to reduced volatility and more stable investment options [21][23][24]. - **Future Market Expectations**: The expectation is that broad-based ETFs will dominate, while industry-specific ETFs will have a lower share, influencing stock prices through index-based pricing mechanisms [25]. - **Impact of U.S. Inventory Replenishment**: The anticipated monthly replenishment in the U.S. is expected to exceed current shipping capacity, necessitating higher demands on shipping routes [26]. - **Potential Port Congestion**: There is a possibility of renewed congestion at U.S. ports, although not to the extent seen during the pandemic, which could still affect other shipping routes [27]. - **Regional Company Performance**: Companies like SeaLand International are benefiting from the supply contraction in Southeast Asia and stable demand, although challenges may arise in 2026 as U.S. inventory cycles decline [32][33]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state and future outlook of the container shipping industry amidst evolving trade dynamics.

关税缓和下的周期机会 20250518 摘要 • 短期外贸数据可能因抢出口而表现良好，但美国对中国加征 30%关税的中 长期影响不容忽视，或对经济构成压力，但对债券市场影响有限。 • 化工行业估值处于历史低位，具备配置良机。中证细分化工龙头指数表现 优于沪深 300，且化工品价格显著回升，成本端压力下降，产业周期迎来 拐点。 • 化工行业资本支出连续两年下降，预示产品周期拐点。龙头公司如万华、 卫星等将在 2025 年底至 2026 年初迎来确定性增量，带来可观净值增长。 • 关税扰动下，钢铁板块出现抢出口现象，但实际影响有限。应关注基础材 料板块的投资机会，包括基建相关、高分红及海外布局良好的公司。 • 中美关税缓和提升宏观风险偏好，为有色金属行业提供阶段性投资机会， 尤其利好铝行业短期需求，间接出口的恢复将提振行业整体需求。 • 几内亚政府收回部分铝土矿矿权，导致氧化铝价格上涨。建议关注拥有低 成本一体化布局的矿业公司，如中国铝业、中国宏桥、南山国际等。 • 关税缓和对集运和航空领域有直接影响。集运运价中枢预计提高，盈利预 测及估值上调。航空业供给端压缩、需求端回暖，盈利预计大幅改善。 Q&A 关税缓和对 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·机械设备 机械设备行业跟踪周报 看好估值底部&业绩高增长的装备出海板块 （工程机械、高空作业平台、油服设备等） 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 1.推荐组合：北方华创、三一重工、中微公司、恒立液压、中集集团、拓荆科技、海天 国际、柏楚电子、晶盛机电、杰瑞股份、浙江鼎力、杭叉集团、迈为股份、先导智能、 长川科技、华测检测、安徽合力、精测电子、纽威股份、芯源微、绿的谐波、海天精 工、杭可科技、伊之密、新莱应材、高测股份、纽威数控、华中数控。 2.投资要点： 【出口链】中美协议超预期降低双边关税+90 天窗口期，建议关注估值回落的优质机 械出口标的 2025 年 5 月 12 日，中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明发布：此前中国出口美国关税为 145%，合约落地后，90 天内中国出口美国关税降至 30%，90 天后再提升至 54%。中 美协议为企业产品出口、海外产能储备等提供了缓冲期，为盈利水平较为突出的企业 提供了保留美国市场份额的机遇。建议关注(1)【浙江鼎力】降税短期为公司获发货备 货窗口，中长期公司国内产能出口美国仍有望保持较好盈利水平，增强业绩兑现 ...

原油大跌，集运偏强 2025 年 5 月 15 日 申银万国期货有限公司 研究所 联系人：马思远 从业资格号：F03141554 联系方式：021-5058 6040 地址：上海东方路 800 号 宝安大厦 7、8、10 楼 邮编：200122 传真：021 5058 8822 网址：www.sywgqh.com.cn 原油：sc 下跌 4.98%。美国劳工部 13 日发布数据显示，美国 4 月份消 费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨 2.3%，环比数据由上个月的-0.1%扭转为上 涨 0.2%。美国 4 月 CPI 的同比数据低于市场预期的 2.4%。美国石油学 会数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加，同期美国汽油库存和馏分油库 存减少。截止 2025 年 5 月 9 日当周，美国商业原油库存增加 428.7 万 桶；同期美国汽油库存减少 137.4 万桶；馏分油库存减少 367.5 万桶。 库欣地区原油库存减少 85 万桶。美国能源部周初报告说，上周美国石 油战略储备 3.996 万桶，增加了 50 万桶。关注低油价给与美国制裁委 股指：股指回调，美容护理板块领涨，计算机、通信和电子板块领跌， 全市成交额 1.19 ...

行业 集运指数日报 日期 2025 年 5 月 15 日 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 宏观金融团队 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | | | 表1：集运欧线期货5月14日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算 价 | 开盘价 | 收盘价 | 结算价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 （%） | 成交量 | 持仓量 | 仓差 | | EC2506 | 1,488.0 | 1,502.0 | 1,726.0 | 1,643.9 | 238.0 | 15 ...

1 、 《 解读深圳科技金融"25条"新政》摘要 ■ 关注 科技信贷提供商 与 知识产权评估服务商 （如中证信用、国家知识产权运营平台相关企业）， 以及受益的高成长科技公司（生物医药、半导体、人工智能等）。 ■ 利好 创投机构、政府引导基金管理方 （如深创投、深圳高新投），也可能推动更多保险公司（科 技险业务）创新布局。 ■ 深圳有望成为 科技金融基础设施建设和制度创新的领先区域 ，建议关注与 金融科技平台、区域性 数据征信系统、知识产权交易中心 等相关的政策受益标的。 2、 《 中美关税谈判超预期，美线5月舱位几近订满 》 摘要 ■ 5月中旬中美达成超预期的关税协议，取消91%的加征和反制关税，并互相暂停24%的"对等关税"， 这直接打开了一个90天的低税率出口窗口。 ■ 短期内，大量中国出口企业，尤其是面向美国市场的制造商和贸易商开始加速发货，迅速带动了跨 太平洋航线的舱位需求激增。 ■ 尽管早期市场反应有所滞后，但5月13日起"爆舱"现象已经逐步显现，包括马士基、地中海航运等 主要航司都已感受到客户集中下单压力。 ■ 疫情后航运公司普遍对航线运力采取灵活调控策略，从4月起已有多家船司在美线缩减航班、临时 ...

PPI：油价强势反弹 生产：轮胎开工率降至年内次低 需求：集运运价指数止跌 CPI：猪价低位拉锯 统计口径误差。数据统计大多为抽样，恐与现实情况有些许出入。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 (1) 电厂日耗季节性下行。5 月 13 日，6 大发电集团的平均日耗为 74.7 万吨，较 5 月 6 日的 75.1 万吨下降 0.6%。5 月 7 日，南方八省电厂日耗为 173.7 万吨，较 4 月 28 日的 186.7 万吨下降 7.0%。 (2) 高炉开工率维持高位。5 月 9 日，全国高炉开工率 84.6%，较 5 月 2 日上升 0.3 个百分点；产能利用率 92.1%， 较 5 月 2 日上升 0.1 个百分点。5 月 9 日，唐山钢厂高炉开工率 94.3%，较 5 月 2 日持平。 (3) 轮胎开工率降至年内次低。5 月 8 日，汽车全钢胎（用于卡车）开工率 44.8%，较 5 月 1 日下降 11.5 个百分点； 汽车半钢胎（用于轿车）开工率 58.4%，较 5 月 1 日下降 14.1 个百分点。 (4) 江浙地区织机开工率小幅回升。5 月 8 日，江浙地区涤纶长丝开工率 92.0%，较 5 月 1 ...

Market Overview - Hong Kong stocks surged today, with all three major indices rising over 2%. The Hang Seng Index increased by 2.3% or 532.38 points, closing at 23640.65 points, with a total turnover of 2228.41 million HKD [1] - The positive sentiment in the market is attributed to the unexpected progress in the first round of trade negotiations between China and the US, which is expected to continue in a constructive direction [1] Blue-Chip Stocks Performance - JD Health (06618) saw a notable increase of 5.13%, closing at 39.95 HKD, contributing 3.56 points to the Hang Seng Index. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of 16.645 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 25.5%, and operating profit of 1.071 billion RMB, up 119.8% [2] - Other blue-chip stocks included China Life (02628) rising by 6.55% to 16.26 HKD, AIA (01299) up 5.15% to 65.3 HKD, while Link REIT (00823) fell by 1.34% to 40.45 HKD [2] Sector Performance - Large technology stocks collectively rose, with Baidu increasing over 4% and Alibaba and JD both rising over 3% [3] - Financial stocks experienced a significant rally, with China Pacific Insurance (02601) up 6.77% to 24.45 HKD, China Life (02628) up 6.55%, and GF Securities (01776) up 6.31% to 11.46 HKD [3] Shipping Sector - The shipping sector performed well, with Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) rising by 7.78% to 1.94 HKD and Seafront International (01308) up 6.51% to 22.9 HKD. The improvement is linked to the easing of tariff conflicts and a seasonal increase in container shipping demand [4][5] Automotive Sector - The automotive sector saw widespread gains, with Li Auto (02015) rising by 4.54% to 112.8 HKD and Xpeng Motors (09868) up 3.87% to 81.8 HKD. The retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 905,000 units in April, a year-on-year increase of 33.9% [6][5] Coal Sector - The coal sector showed positive movement, with China Coal Energy (01898) up 4.91% to 8.55 HKD. Despite recent price declines, analysts suggest that demand may improve as summer approaches [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tencent Music (01698) surged by 12.84% to 61.5 HKD, reporting Q1 2025 revenue of 7.36 billion RMB, with online music service revenue growing by 15.9% [8] - Smoore International (06969) reached a new high, increasing by 10.18% to 17.32 HKD, amid rising sales of new tobacco products [9] - MicroPort Scientific (02252) saw a decline of 8.12% to 16.52 HKD due to a share placement announcement [10] - Samsonite (01910) dropped by 8.58% to 14.06 HKD after reporting a 7.3% decrease in net sales for Q1 2025 [11]