Core Insights - The economic resilience across various regions in China has been highlighted, with a national GDP exceeding 101 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.07% in the first three quarters of the year [1] Group 1: Regional Economic Performance - Guangdong Province leads with a GDP of approximately 105.18 billion yuan, showing a growth rate of 2.93% [2] - Jiangsu Province follows closely with a GDP of about 102.81 billion yuan and a growth rate of 3.6% [2] - Sichuan Province has reached a GDP of 49.32 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 4.93%, driven by the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle [4] Group 2: Competitive Dynamics - The GDP gap between Chongqing and Jiangxi has narrowed to 230 billion yuan, showcasing a competition between two distinct economic models [5] - Chongqing's automotive manufacturing, particularly in new energy vehicles, has seen a 40% increase in production, while Jiangxi excels in lithium battery and photovoltaic industries [5] - Both regions are competing in the digital economy, with Jiangxi focusing on IoT demonstration zones and Chongqing enhancing industrial internet coverage [5] Group 3: Emerging Growth Areas - Gansu Province has achieved a growth rate of 4.8%, primarily driven by its renewable energy strategy, with significant wind and solar capacity [8] - The province's data center cluster is growing rapidly, attracting major tech companies, although traditional industries still dominate its economic structure [8] - The challenge for Gansu lies in avoiding becoming a "green energy island" and developing a local consumption and high-value conversion system [8] Group 4: Future Outlook - The essence of regional competition is seen as an iteration of development models, with eastern provinces relying on technological innovation while central and western regions explore differentiated paths [10] - The upcoming quarters may reveal which provinces will achieve ranking improvements through the cultivation of new productive forces [10]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the recent decline in Hong Kong stocks, particularly the Hang Seng Technology Index, which fell by 5.1% and the Hang Seng Index by 7.2%, reflects a state of market panic, suggesting a potential opportunity for investment [2][6][7] - The Fear and Greed Index for both the Hang Seng Technology Index and the Hang Seng Index is currently at historical lows, indicating a possible short-term recovery in market sentiment [7][8] Market Analysis - The decline in the Hong Kong market is attributed to several factors: 1. Unexpected growth in U.S. employment numbers alongside a rise in the unemployment rate to a four-year high, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [7] 2. Concerns over high asset prices potentially leading to market corrections, which has dampened trading sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [7] - The report notes that the technology sector has been particularly hard hit, with the Hang Seng Technology Index underperforming compared to other indices [7] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a "slow bull" market trend due to: 1. The onset of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a more accommodative global liquidity environment [8] 2. Continuous support for the domestic technology sector through policy initiatives, which could attract long-term capital and enhance market activity [8] - Investment strategies suggested include: 1. Focusing on emerging technology sectors such as AI and robotics, which are at a critical commercialization phase [8] 2. Identifying scarce resources that may benefit from valuation premiums due to shifts in energy transition and geopolitical factors [8] 3. Monitoring sectors like insurance and brokerage, which may see increased activity as low-interest rates encourage more equity investments [8]

Overall Viewpoint - Hydrogen ammonia and methanol, along with wind power, are expected to attract more investment due to the dual benefits of China's future industries and the EU carbon tariff in 2026. The global shipping industry is accelerating its decarbonization, and the International Maritime Organization (IMO) is promoting green fuel policies, which may keep green methanol prices high amid rising demand and limited supply. The current market expectations for the hydrogen ammonia and methanol sector are low, which can resonate with the wind power sector [4] - The ongoing electricity shortage in the U.S. is highlighted, with Nvidia's current shipment scale corresponding to data center power levels. The gap between actual power supply and grid capacity in the U.S. is a key focus for market speculation. Short-term fluctuations in stock prices are influenced by interest rate expectations and short-selling, but technology remains the main trend, with a focus on opportunities for rebounds in the overseas energy storage and SST sectors [4] Domestic Energy Storage - Heilongjiang Province has released a special implementation plan for large-scale new energy storage construction (2025-2027), aiming for an installed capacity of over 6GW by 2027. The first batch involves 1.45GW, with a reliable capacity compensation mechanism being established. Provinces are improving capacity price compensation mechanisms to ensure financing for independent energy storage. It is anticipated that independent energy storage bidding in 2026 will maintain a good level similar to 2025, and as the industry develops, independent storage will achieve a complete revenue model through energy, capacity, and ancillary service markets. After 2027, the growth of independent energy storage installations will align closely with load growth [5] Lithium Battery - The market is currently speculating on the production expectations for domestic energy storage in 2026, with short-term positive expectations remaining unchallenged. Growth expectations for power batteries and overseas energy storage are consistent. Additionally, the lithium battery supply chain is experiencing a "reverse involution" logic, indicating a trend of supply-demand improvement. From the perspective of supply-demand tightness in the supply chain, lithium hexafluorophosphate is the most constrained, followed by separators, copper foil, high-pressure lithium iron phosphate, and anodes. Short-term expectations for lithium hexafluorophosphate are already high, and subsequent stages are gradually entering long-term contract signing. Mid-term investment opportunities should focus on lithium mines with significant supply variability and separator segments where profitability does not support expansion [5]

Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Energy Demand - In October, China's total electricity consumption increased by over 10%, reaching a new high for the year, indicating strong economic activity [1] - The double-digit growth in electricity demand has led to rapid increases in energy requirements for coal, nuclear, and lithium [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices are rising due to increased residential electricity consumption, particularly with the onset of the heating season in northern China [2] - As of November 21, the market price for Q5500 coal at Qinhuangdao port was reported at 832 RMB/ton, while prices in major coal-producing regions continued to rise [2] - Analysts predict that coal prices will remain high and fluctuate between 800 and 860 RMB/ton due to supply constraints and seasonal demand [2][3] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Developments - China's nuclear power sector is experiencing rapid growth, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The first grid connection of the "Hualong One" nuclear power unit in Fujian marks a significant milestone in nuclear energy development [4] - The price of uranium is expected to rise gradually due to a tightening supply-demand balance in the long term [4][5] Group 4: Lithium and Energy Storage Sector - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are benefiting from surging domestic and international demand, with significant investments in new projects [6] - In the first eight months of the year, China signed and initiated 183 lithium battery projects with a total investment of approximately 400 billion RMB [6] - A shortage of lithium carbonate is anticipated, with demand outpacing supply, potentially leading to price increases [7]

Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Economic Indicators - In October, the national electricity consumption exceeded a 10% increase, marking a new high for the year, indicating strong economic activity [1] - The double-digit growth in electricity consumption has led to a rapid increase in demand for various energy sources, including coal, nuclear, and lithium [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The price of thermal coal has been rising, with port prices around 830 RMB/ton, while major coal-producing regions continue to see weekly price increases [2] - As of November 21, prices in key coal-producing areas showed upward trends, with Shanxi's Q5500 at 690 RMB/ton (up 10 RMB), and Shaanxi's Q5800 at 668 RMB/ton (up 3 RMB) [2] - Analysts predict that the thermal coal market will remain high and volatile due to supply constraints and rising costs, with spot prices expected to fluctuate between 800-860 RMB/ton [2][3] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Developments - The nuclear power sector is experiencing rapid growth, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The completion of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power unit marks a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy development [4] - Investment in nuclear power has also seen substantial growth, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in nuclear power investment [4] Group 4: Uranium Market Trends - The price of uranium is on a slow upward trend, with current spot prices at 77 USD/pound, driven by a tightening supply-demand balance [5][4] Group 5: Lithium and Energy Storage Sector - The lithium battery and energy storage sectors are experiencing high demand, with significant investments leading to price increases in lithium materials [6] - In the first eight months of the year, China signed and initiated 183 projects in the lithium battery industry, totaling approximately 400 billion RMB [6] - A forecast indicates that lithium carbonate demand may grow by 30% by 2026, with potential price increases if demand exceeds expectations [7] Group 6: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The lithium carbonate market is currently facing a monthly shortfall, with demand outpacing supply, leading to a sustained reduction in inventory [7] - Recent price surges in lithium carbonate have seen prices reach near historical highs, with significant increases from the year's lowest points [7]

Group 1: Electricity Consumption and Market Trends - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by over 10%, reaching a new high for the year, indicating robust economic activity [1] - The demand for traditional and new energy sources, including coal, nuclear, and lithium, is experiencing rapid growth, with strong price rebounds observed in upstream raw materials like thermal coal, natural uranium, and lithium carbonate [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices in major production areas are on the rise, with prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showing weekly increases, indicating a tightening supply and strong demand [2][3] - The current market for thermal coal is expected to remain high and volatile, with port prices fluctuating between 800 and 860 yuan per ton, driven by supply constraints and seasonal demand [2] - The transportation of coal has peaked, with daily transport volumes exceeding 1.2 million tons, while coal imports and exports have seen significant declines [3] Group 3: Nuclear Energy Development - The nuclear power sector is rapidly expanding, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The successful grid connection of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power unit marks a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy capabilities [4] - Investment in nuclear power has also seen substantial growth, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in investment completion [4] Group 4: Lithium and Energy Storage - The lithium battery industry is witnessing a surge in new projects, with 183 projects signed or initiated in the first eight months of the year, amounting to approximately 400 billion yuan in total investment [5] - The price of lithium carbonate has rebounded sharply, with futures contracts surpassing 100,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market sentiment and demand expectations [6]

Core Insights - In October, the total electricity consumption in China increased by over 10%, reaching a new high for the year, indicating robust economic activity and demand for both traditional and renewable energy sources [1] Group 1: Coal Market Dynamics - Coal prices in major production areas are on the rise, with prices in Shanxi, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia showing weekly increases, reflecting strong demand and supply constraints [2] - The current market for thermal coal is expected to remain high due to tightening supply, rising costs, and seasonal demand, with port prices fluctuating between 800 and 860 yuan per ton [2] - The Daqin Railway is operating at high capacity, transporting over 1.2 million tons of coal daily, while coal imports and exports have seen significant declines [3] Group 2: Nuclear Energy Growth - The nuclear power sector in China is experiencing rapid growth, with over 10 new units approved annually since 2019, and a record 11 units expected in 2024 [4] - The completion of the world's largest "Hualong One" nuclear power unit marks a significant milestone in China's nuclear energy capabilities [4] - Investment in nuclear power has also seen substantial growth, with a 23.3% year-on-year increase in investment completed in the first nine months of 2025 [4] Group 3: Upstream Raw Material Demand - The demand for upstream materials in the nuclear power sector, particularly uranium, is increasing, with prices expected to rise due to a tightening supply-demand balance [5] - The lithium battery industry is witnessing a surge in investment, with over 183 projects initiated in the first eight months of the year, leading to significant price increases for lithium carbonate [5] - Lithium carbonate prices have rebounded sharply, with futures contracts reaching over 100,000 yuan per ton, reflecting strong market sentiment and demand expectations [5]

Group 1 - The chemical sector experienced a decline on November 24, with the chemical ETF (516020) showing a drop of 0.9% by the end of the trading day, after hitting a low of over 2% during the session [1] - Key stocks in the lithium battery, phosphate, and fluorine chemical sectors saw significant declines, with Enjie Co. down 5.83% and Hongda Co. down 4.34%, among others [1][3] - Despite the recent pullback in popular sectors like lithium batteries, institutions remain optimistic about the long-term trends in these sectors, with expectations of improved supply-demand dynamics by 2026 [1][3] Group 2 - The chemical ETF (516020) has shown a year-to-date increase of 23.73%, outperforming major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index (14.47%) and the CSI 300 Index (13.04%) [3][4] - Recent trading data indicates that the chemical ETF has seen net subscriptions in 7 out of the last 10 trading days, with a total net subscription amount exceeding 500 million [5] - As of November 21, the price-to-book ratio of the chemical ETF's underlying index was 2.28, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [6] Group 3 - Analysts suggest that the chemical industry is poised for further optimization in supply-demand dynamics, with leading companies expected to gain market share due to better management and energy control [7] - The chemical ETF (516020) tracks the CSI Sub-Industry Chemical Index, covering various sub-sectors, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks [7] - The report emphasizes the potential for investment opportunities in high-quality supply chain companies with strong cost control and technological differentiation [1][7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [3]. Core Viewpoints - The logic for high growth in lithium storage continues, with a focus on performance catalysts in the wind power sector [1]. - The report emphasizes the ongoing demand for energy storage and power equipment, with lithium supply remaining tight and the logic for wind and solar power remaining intact [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Photovoltaics - The industry is currently in a weak seasonal phase, but the core catalyst remains the anti-involution policy, with expectations for capacity control measures to be implemented by the end of the year [15][40]. - The "Chengdu Declaration" was released at the 2025 International Photovoltaic and Energy Storage Industry Conference, emphasizing the importance of anti-involution strategies and high-quality development [22]. - The price of polysilicon remains stable, while silicon wafer prices are declining due to weak demand and inventory pressure [28][34]. 2. Energy Storage - The report highlights ongoing domestic and international developments in energy storage, with a strong outlook for sustained high growth [45]. - In October, domestic energy storage added 1.70 GW/3.52 GWh, with a cumulative increase of 34.07 GW/85.71 GWh year-to-date, reflecting a 56% year-on-year growth [50]. - Significant projects include a 1.6 GWh energy storage project in Germany and new market mechanisms being established in various regions [47][48]. 3. Lithium Batteries - Demand expectations for lithium batteries are strengthening, with all segments showing a willingness to maintain prices, indicating a continuous improvement in profitability [15]. - The report recommends focusing on battery segments, particularly leading companies like CATL and EVE Energy, as well as other key players in the supply chain [15]. 4. Wind Power - The report notes a clear upward trend in the wind power sector, with the new five-year plan indicating a favorable cycle beginning [15]. - Companies like Goldwind Technology and Mingyang Smart Energy are highlighted as key players benefiting from this trend [15]. 5. Power Equipment - The report mentions the approval of five flexible direct current projects and a steady increase in transformer exports, indicating robust demand in the power equipment sector [15]. - Companies such as Sifang Electric and XJ Electric are recommended for their strong positions in the market [15]. 6. New Directions - The report emphasizes the importance of developments in humanoid robotics and domestic chip manufacturing, with a focus on Tesla's supply chain and the potential impact of NVIDIA's AI chips on the market [15].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2025 年 11 月 24 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2601.GFE 收盘价 90480 元/吨，较前日下 跌 540 元/吨（-0.59%），近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 碳酸锂 | 日报 1. 产业动态 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 92090 元/吨，较前日下跌 0.29%， 近 10 个交易日整体呈现上升走势。 【基差分析】当前基 ...