英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 2025 年 12 月 15 日 美联储靴子落地及重要会议后，A 股修复行情有望延续，踏准板块轮动 节奏更重要 观点： 总量视角 【A 股大势研判】 2025 年 12 月 11 日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)发布了最新的利率决 议，宣布降息 25 个基点，将联邦基金利率目标区间降至 3.50%-3.75%，符合市场 "鹰派降息"预期。这也是美联储连续第三次会议宣布降息，全年的累计降息幅度 就此达到 75 个基点（数据来源：财联社）。我们认为，尽管降息 25 个基点，但 被视为未来利率路径"风向标"的点阵图却显示，美联储官员对明年降息的预测依 然保守，且维持 2026 年仅有一次降息的预期，这大大削弱了市场对即将开启长 期宽松周期的乐观想象。 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议总结 2025 年经济工 作，分析当前经济形势，部署 2026 年经济工作。明年经济工作任务目标提到"推 动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，实现"十五五"良好开局"。尽管当前国 内物价仍存在一定下行压力，考虑到"十五五"开局保持较高经济增速的 ...

每经AI快讯，A股电网设备板块继续走强，中超控股3连板，长城电工、太阳电缆、风范股份2连板，昇 辉科技20cm涨停，中能电气、和顺电气涨超7%。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the A-share market and macroeconomic trends in China for 2026, highlighting the expected recovery of the Producer Price Index (PPI) and its implications for corporate profitability and market performance [1][2][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **2025 Market Performance**: The market was primarily driven by liquidity, with the Wind All A Index rising by 25%. Valuation improvements contributed 20%, while profit support was only 5%. Key drivers included state support, insurance capital inflows, and the migration of household deposits [1][3]. - **2026 PPI Expectations**: A significant recovery in PPI is anticipated, with a neutral forecast suggesting it may reach around -0.7 by the end of the year. This recovery is expected to align with the profit growth rate and return on equity (ROE) of non-financial enterprises, which is projected to be around 10% [1][5][4]. - **Market Space and ERP**: In a weak recovery scenario for PPI, the equity risk premium (ERP) for the CSI 300 Index could drop to negative one standard deviation, suggesting a potential index increase of about 10%, from approximately 4,000 points to around 4,500 points [1][6]. - **Liquidity Sources**: Micro-level liquidity is heavily reliant on foreign capital and the migration of household deposits. The return of foreign capital is limited, necessitating a focus on attracting domestic funds through bank wealth management products and declining yields [1][7]. - **Role of Brokerage Firms**: Brokerage firms are crucial for guiding retail investor participation in the market. Historical data indicates that rapid increases in brokerage stocks often correlate with higher net inflows from retail investors. A resurgence in brokerage stocks is expected in Q1 2026 [1][9][10]. - **Q1 2026 Outlook**: The first quarter of 2026 is viewed as the most certain window for investment, with anticipated policy support, optimistic economic expectations, and liquidity easing. Key events, such as the visit of a U.S. official and the full rollout of the "15th Five-Year Plan," are expected to boost market sentiment [1][11][12]. - **Second Half of 2026**: The second half may see a verification phase for economic data and corporate earnings, with potential uncertainties arising from U.S. midterm elections impacting risk appetite. The market is expected to remain volatile [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Spring Rally Timing**: The spring rally is expected to start earlier than usual, potentially from late 2025 to early 2026, driven by liquidity shifts and early signs of market enthusiasm [1][14]. - **Sector Focus for 2026**: Key sectors to watch include software, media (especially gaming), robotics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and energy storage, with a focus on growth styles [1][16]. - **Investment Strategies**: The chemical industry is highlighted as a key area for investment, particularly in the context of rising external demand and AI materials. The report suggests that the chemical sector has a high probability of outperforming during the early stages of PPI recovery [1][21]. - **Brokerage Sector Performance**: The brokerage sector is expected to perform well in Q1 2026, with a potential rally that could attract retail investment and push indices higher [1][23]. - **Overall Market Outlook for 2026**: The overall market outlook for 2026 is positive, with expectations of reaching 4,500 points if PPI recovers, household deposits migrate, and brokerage stocks rally. Recommended sectors include industrial metals, energy storage, and domestic computing capabilities [1][24].

导读：①商业航天延续强势，海内外消息面催化持续共振下，板块呈现高位抱团与低位补涨并行的态 势；②可控核聚变崛起，或与商业航天一起联动活跃；③英伟达闭门峰会催化电力短缺解决方案，出海 电力概念的预期再度升温。 商业航天依旧是目前市场延续性最强的题材方向。消息面上，商业航天依旧保持着海内外产业催化共振 之势。近期SpaceX IPO官宣：SpaceX正式向员工通报2026年IPO计划，整体估值约8000亿美元。国内方 向，国家层面将发起设立商业航天发展基金，为长周期、重资产的火箭可回收、星座组网等项目提 供"耐心资本"。而从个股来看，航天动力、顺灏股份、龙洲股份、航天发展等均维持强劲走势，而华菱 线缆等个股同样后来居上表现亮眼。目前呈现出低位补涨和高位抱团并行。 可控核聚变概念同样值得关注，中洲特材、中国核建、雪人集团、保变电气等10余股涨停。消息面上中 央经济工作会议提出，深入推进重点行业节能降碳改造。制定能源强国建设规划纲要，加快新型能源体 系建设，扩大绿电应用。从市场的角度而言，上周四开始发酵后，周五进一步加强，与指数形成了小幅 共振，反映出资金对于该方向的重视程度不断提升。该题材中部分个股与商业航天重合， ...

Group 1 - The central economic work conference emphasizes expanding domestic circulation as a key focus, similar to last year, but with significant differences in expectations and pricing for domestic and foreign demand stocks [1][12] - There is a strong performance expectation for overseas exposure stocks, but the difficulty in further valuation increases is acknowledged; meanwhile, domestic demand stocks have potential for significant valuation elasticity if they exceed expectations [1][12] - The market is currently viewed as an important window for positioning in the spring market, with expectations for large-cap growth driven by industry trends and benefiting from insurance capital allocations [2][13] Group 2 - The market is expected to enter a new wave of trends as the underlying logic of the bull market remains intact, driven by structural trends and capital market reforms [3][14] - A-shares are still in an upward channel, with a transition from policy-driven momentum to profit-driven momentum anticipated, supported by recovering prices and domestic demand [4][15] - The upcoming policies are expected to create a favorable environment for risk assets, with a focus on sectors such as artificial intelligence, new energy, and consumer services [5][16] Group 3 - The cross-year market is likely to see a rotation of sectors, with a focus on technology and advanced manufacturing, while defensive and consumer sectors may also be considered in the short term [7][17] - The economic gears are expected to continue moving forward despite fluctuations in market expectations, with a focus on fundamental changes rather than price volatility [8][18] - The market structure is anticipated to evolve from a tech-dominated landscape to a more balanced bull market across various sectors, driven by policy support for growth and structural transformation [6][19]

Group 1 - The Central Economic Work Conference has set the economic policy direction for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development rather than aggressive growth [3][4] - The meeting aligns with the previous Politburo meeting, providing more specific execution details while maintaining a cautious approach to economic expectations [3][4] - Different industries will experience varying impacts from the policy signals, with some sectors benefiting while others may face challenges [3][4] Group 2 - Fixed asset investment is prioritized to "stop the decline and stabilize," focusing on quality over quantity, with an emphasis on projects that align with industrial upgrades and local needs [4] - The conference highlights the need for a new energy system to support emerging industries, particularly in artificial intelligence, indicating potential growth in the new energy sector [4] - The real estate sector received limited attention, with policies expected to be more about stabilizing the market rather than aggressive support, leading to potential short-term pressures on real estate stocks [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of PPI as a significant macroeconomic theme for 2026, which is expected to strengthen corporate profitability and provide solid fundamental support compared to 2025 [7][19][20] - The report predicts that the net profit growth rate for the non-financial sector of the entire A-share market is expected to exceed 10% in 2026, driven by the recovery of PPI [20][22] - The report highlights that the recovery slope of PPI will depend on the degree of fiscal expansion, with a steeper recovery indicating stronger market performance [26][32] Group 2 - The report identifies key industry configurations for 2026, including sectors benefiting from U.S. interest rate cuts, external demand, AI, price increases, and an active capital market [8][19] - Specific sectors such as industrial metals, electric grid equipment, energy storage, battery materials, and certain chemicals are expected to benefit from increased external demand and U.S. capital expenditure expansion [8][19] - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly in AI and robotics, will continue to see high demand and potential growth, with a focus on software, media, and innovative pharmaceuticals [8][19][40] Group 3 - The report anticipates that the first half of 2026 will present a favorable time window for growth performance, driven by domestic policy initiatives and external interest rate cuts [7][44] - The potential for a "spring rally" is highlighted, with expectations that it may occur earlier than usual due to clearer interest rate cut expectations and favorable market conditions [7][49] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the pace of resident deposit migration and foreign capital inflow as critical variables influencing market dynamics [7][36][41]

12月12日中午，飞天茅台的散装单瓶参考价跌至1485元，首次跌破1499元的官方指导价。 这个被视为"硬通货"的白酒标杆价格失守，让许多投资者感到恐慌。 但就在同一天，A股三大指数集体探底回升，成交额放量至2.1万亿元，科技板块掀起涨停潮。 市场仿佛在告诉所有人：悲观者盯着茅台的降价，乐观者已 经在前沿科技的狂欢中赚得盆满钵满。 上午开盘时，市场一度低开低走，散户们看着茅台价格跌破指导价的消息，纷纷抛售消费股。 但到了午后，剧情突然反转。 三大指数集体拉升，最终沪指收涨0.41%，创业板指涨近1%，全市场超2600只个股上涨。 更关键的是，成交额较前一日放量 2351亿元，增量资金入场迹象明显。 有股民调侃："这行情就像坐过山车，上午还在哭穷，下午就开始数钱。 " "深V"反转背后的资金暗战 当消费板块还在为茅台价格纠结时，科技领域已经炸锅了。 可控核聚变概念全天强势，国机重装、雪人集团等十余只股票涨停。 国际能源署预测，到2030 年，全球核聚变市场规模将接近5000亿美元（约3.5万亿元人民币）。 这一宏大叙事彻底点燃了资金热情。 商业航天板块同样疯狂，再升科技走出5连板，顺灏股份11天7板。 消息面上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese A-shares experienced a significant increase on December 12, with major indices showing positive performance, driven by optimistic signals from the Central Economic Work Conference regarding future economic policies [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3889 points, up by 0.41% - The Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13258 points, up by 0.84% - The ChiNext Index closed at 3194 points, up by 0.97% - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 20,922 billion yuan, an increase of about 2,351 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 emphasized a policy direction focused on stability and quality improvement for the upcoming year - The conference outlined eight key tasks for China's economic work by 2026, with a strong emphasis on domestic demand and building a robust domestic market as the top priority [1]. - Analyst Xiong Yue from Dongguan Securities noted that the conference's positive policy signals could support economic recovery and enhance market risk appetite, suggesting that A-shares may continue to rise [1]. Sector Performance - According to statistics from Dongfang Caifu, sectors such as precious metals, power grid equipment, power supply equipment, electronic chemicals, and semiconductors saw significant gains, with the precious metals sector leading with a 3.81% increase [2].

Group 1 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) has seen a rise of 1.88% as of December 12, with stocks like Zhongneng Electric, Hualing Cable, and Fengfan Co. hitting the daily limit, while Tongguang Cable, Hailianxun, Shuangjie Electric, and Guodian Nanzi also experienced gains [1] - The ETF has recorded a net inflow of funds for 11 consecutive trading days, totaling 724 million yuan, with the latest share count reaching 1.848 billion and a total scale of 2.647 billion yuan, both hitting new highs since its inception [1] - A satellite named "Electric Power Engineering" was successfully launched on December 10, designed to meet the full-chain needs of electric grid construction and operation, serving as a dedicated monitoring tool for the grid [1] Group 2 - The electric grid equipment ETF (159326) is the only ETF tracking the CSI Electric Grid Equipment Theme Index, with a strong representation in sectors such as transmission and transformation equipment, grid automation, cable components, and distribution equipment, expected to benefit from the explosion of AI computing power [2] - The ultra-high voltage sector holds a significant weight of 65% in the ETF, the highest in the market [2] Group 3 - Citigroup has indicated that global electricity demand is being significantly driven up by AI data centers, electrification, and the integration of renewable energy, alongside a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle that lowers financing costs, supporting long-term investments in grid infrastructure projects [1] - Asian market companies focused on high-voltage transformers, GIS, and energy storage systems are entering a "multi-year structural upcycle" [1]