Core Viewpoint - Tunisian dates, known as "desert bread," are a significant agricultural product with a strong potential for expansion into the Chinese market, driven by increasing health awareness and consumer demand in China [1][2][3] Group 1: Industry Overview - Tunisia is a major producer and exporter of dates, with the "Deglet Nour" variety being particularly renowned globally [1] - Dates are Tunisia's second-largest agricultural export, generating substantial foreign exchange income and providing employment for rural labor [2] Group 2: Company Insights - Ahmed Boujbel's factory processes approximately 20,000 tons of "Deglet Nour" dates annually, accounting for about 10% of Tunisia's total date exports [1] - The factory produces various date products, including date powder and date paste, which are processed using modern equipment to ensure freshness during long-distance transport [2] Group 3: Market Opportunities - The Chinese government's recent announcement of zero tariffs on 100% of products from 53 African countries presents a significant opportunity for Tunisian date exporters [3] - Boujbel plans to attend trade fairs in China to seek partnerships and expand market access for Tunisian dates [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the interest - rate cut trading continues. The probability of a 50 - BP interest rate cut by the Fed in September has risen, the US stock market has reached a new high, the 10 - year US Treasury yield has declined, the US dollar index has fallen, the gold price has risen, the copper price has declined, and the oil price has dropped to a more than two - month low. Domestically, the July financial data is cold, the A - share market has broken through the previous high, the bond market has recovered, and the stock market may enter a shock phase after the breakthrough, while the bond market opportunities may be driven by the central bank's bond - buying restart and weakening fundamentals [2][3] - For precious metals, gold and silver continue to rise. The market is digesting the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and silver is expected to outperform gold. Attention should be paid to the US inflation data [4] - Regarding copper, the US dollar is weak, and the copper price is in a strong shock. The market is digesting the positive factors, and the copper price is expected to remain strong in the context of the weak US dollar [6][7] - For aluminum, the aluminum price is oscillating. The market is waiting for the change in social inventory, and the consumption peak - off - peak switch is approaching [8] - In the case of alumina, the price is oscillating. The mine - end disturbance has not further fermented, and the price is expected to be supported and remain oscillating [9][10] - For zinc, the zinc price is in an oscillating adjustment. The market is digesting the interest - rate cut expectation, and the short - term rebound driving force is weakening [11] - Regarding lead, the lead price adjustment space is limited. The consumption peak season is under - expected, and the supply - side pressure is also weakening [12][13] - For tin, the tin price is in a high - level adjustment. The market has digested the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, and the supply and demand are slightly in surplus [14][15] - In the case of industrial silicon, the price is falling. The anti - involution sentiment fluctuates, and the social inventory has increased [16][17] - For lithium carbonate, the lithium price is in a wide - range shock. There are contradictions in the market game, and the terminal demand needs to be observed [18][19] - Regarding nickel, the nickel price is回调. The technical pressure is strong, and the fundamental situation is weak [20][21] - For crude oil, the oil price is weakening. The EIA has significantly raised the surplus expectation, and the short - term focus is on the US - Russia summit [22] - In the case of steel products, the steel price is oscillating. The social financing increment in the first seven months is high, and the supply - demand is expected to be weak [23] - For iron ore, the iron ore price is oscillating. The demand is in a weak season, and the supply pressure is not large [24][25] - Regarding bean and rapeseed meal, the meal price may be oscillating strongly. The US soybean export data is expected to be good, and the domestic supply in the distant end is expected to be tight [26][27] - For palm oil, the palm oil price may be oscillating strongly. Malaysia has raised the reference price and export tax, and attention should be paid to production and export demand [28][29] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - **Copper**: SHFE copper closed at 79380 yuan/ton, up 360 yuan; LME copper closed at 9777 dollars/ton, down 63 dollars. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 875 tons [30][32] - **Aluminum**: SHFE aluminum closed at 20790 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan; LME aluminum closed at 2609 dollars/ton, down 14 dollars. The SHFE aluminum warehouse receipt increased by 6406 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 1525 tons [30][35] - **Alumina**: The SHFE alumina futures contract closed at 3230 yuan/ton, down 78 yuan. The national average spot price was 3270 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan. The SHFE warehouse inventory increased by 4806 tons [30][35] - **Zinc**: SHFE zinc closed at 22600 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; LME zinc closed at 2812 dollars/ton, down 37 dollars. The SHFE zinc warehouse receipt increased by 424 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 1075 tons [30][35] - **Lead**: SHFE lead closed at 16930 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; LME lead closed at 1988 dollars/ton, down 28 dollars. The SHFE lead warehouse receipt increased by 799 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 25 tons [30][35] - **Nickel**: SHFE nickel closed at 122340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; LME nickel closed at 15240 dollars/ton, down 120 dollars. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 115 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 tons [30][35] - **Tin**: SHFE tin closed at 269820 yuan/ton, down 380 yuan; LME tin closed at 33700 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars. The SHFE tin warehouse receipt increased by 33 tons, and the LME inventory increased by 15 tons [30][35] - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold closed at 3407.00 dollars/ounce, up 7.40 dollars; SHFE silver closed at 9300.00 yuan/kg, up 113.00 yuan; COMEX silver closed at 38.55 dollars/ounce, up 0.61 dollars [30] 3.2 Industrial Data Perspective - **Copper**: The SHFE copper main contract price increased by 360 yuan from August 12th to August 13th, the LME copper price decreased by 63 dollars. The SHFE copper warehouse receipt remained unchanged, and the LME inventory increased by 875 tons. The spot price increased by 320 yuan, and the LME warehouse receipt increased by 925 tons [32] - **Nickel**: The SHFE nickel main contract price decreased by 100 yuan from August 12th to August 13th, the LME nickel price decreased by 120 dollars. The SHFE nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 115 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 648 tons [32][35]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The USDA unexpectedly cut the soybean planting area, and the prices of the three major oils oscillated upward. Despite a record - high yield per unit, the significant reduction in the planting area led the USDA to lower the soybean production forecast. With the bullish impact of the USDA report and the conclusion of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, the overall situation provided some support for the oil market, causing the oil prices to strengthen [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Futures Market - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 9424.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +62 yuan and a change rate of +0.66%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8576.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +100.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.18%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 10064.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +262.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.67% [1] Spot Market - In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 9470.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +150.00 yuan and a change rate of +1.61%. The spot basis was P09 + 46.00, with a month - on - month change of +88.00 yuan. In the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8680.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +110.00 yuan/ton and a change rate of +1.28%. The spot basis was Y09 + 104.00, with a month - on - month change of +10.00 yuan. In the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 10170.00 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of +260.00 yuan and a change rate of +2.62%. The spot basis was OI09 + 106.00, with a month - on - month change of - 2.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Information Summary Palm Oil Export Tax - Malaysia raised its reference price for crude palm oil in September, increasing the export tax to 10%. The reference price for crude palm oil in September was 4053.43 ringgit per ton (962.12 US dollars), compared to 3864.12 US dollars in August with an export tax of 9% [2] Soybean and Rapeseed Prices - The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (September shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US West soybeans (September shipment) was 451 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (October shipment) was 498 US dollars/ton, up 14 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 542 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 532 US dollars/ton, down 14 US dollars/ton [2] Imported Oil Prices - The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (September shipment) was 1146 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (November shipment) was 1138 US dollars/ton, up 19 US dollars/ton. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (September shipment) was 1035 US dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (November shipment) was 1015 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] USDA Forecast - The USDA expected the soybean yield per unit in the United States in the 2025/26 season to reach 53.6 bushels per acre, higher than the July forecast of 52.5 bushels and the analyst's expectation of 52.9 bushels. The USDA significantly cut the soybean planting area forecast from 83.4 million acres in July to 80.9 million acres, and lowered the soybean production forecast from 4.335 billion bushels in July to 4.292 billion bushels [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The corn purchasing prices for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China have been rising, but the market outlook suggests a downward pressure on corn prices due to limited new corn procurement and the upcoming new harvest in mid-September [1][6]. Group 1: Price Trends - In early August, the average corn purchasing price for deep processing enterprises in Northeast China reached its highest point of the year at 2242 yuan/ton, which is slightly higher than July's average by 2 yuan/ton but lower than last year's August average by 31.5 yuan/ton, reflecting a decline of 1.39% [1]. - The overall corn prices have increased this year, putting significant pressure on deep processing enterprises [3]. Group 2: Purchasing Volume - From January to June, the monthly corn purchasing volume for Northeast deep processing enterprises showed a downward trend, with a rebound in July where the total purchasing volume reached 960,000 tons, a 16% increase month-on-month but a 7% decrease year-on-year [3]. - The total corn purchasing volume from January to July was approximately 8.83 million tons, representing a 24% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. Group 3: Inventory and Demand - As of early August, the average corn inventory days for deep processing enterprises in the three northeastern provinces was about 39 days, with limited new corn procurement expected before the new harvest [5]. - The operating load of major deep processing industries showed a declining trend in July, with a month-on-month decrease of 2 to 13 percentage points [5]. - Seasonal demand for corn products like starch and lysine is expected to recover slightly in late August due to reduced high temperatures and the back-to-school season, but new corn demand is unlikely to see significant increases [6]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The market outlook indicates that from August to September, deep processing enterprises in Northeast China will primarily rely on contract grain and inventory, with limited new corn demand, leading to a high probability of downward pressure on corn prices [6]. - It is anticipated that the mainstream corn prices in Northeast China will decline by 50-100 yuan/ton from mid-August to mid-September due to the increasing supply from other regions and the narrowing sales window for old grain [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The central government's policies show care for the capital market, with a long - term bullish outlook for the stock market, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. - In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. - For precious metals, the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [7]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, different metals have different trends, with some expected to be volatile and strong, and some facing downward risks [9][12]. - In the black building materials market, steel prices may weaken if demand cannot be effectively repaired, and the prices of related products are affected by supply, demand, and market sentiment [25]. - In the energy and chemical market, the prices of various products are affected by factors such as supply, demand, cost, and market sentiment, and different trading strategies are recommended [44][45]. - In the agricultural products market, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and corresponding trading suggestions are provided [56][57]. Summary by Category Macro - financial Stock Index - News: As of the end of July, M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, and the social financing scale from January to July was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. 188 billion yuan in special treasury bonds for equipment renewal investment subsidies has been allocated, driving over 1 trillion yuan in total investment [2]. - Basis ratio of stock index futures: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios. The trading logic is to go long on dips in the long run, but short - term volatility may intensify [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all rose. As of the end of July, M2 was 329.94 trillion yuan, up 8.8% year - on - year, and M1 was 111.06 trillion yuan, up 5.6% year - on - year. The central bank conducted 1185 billion yuan in 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Wednesday, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long run, but may enter a short - term shock pattern [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Shanghai gold rose 0.11%, and Shanghai silver rose 1.12%. COMEX gold fell 0.03%, and COMEX silver fell 0.10%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.24%, and the US dollar index was 97.77 [6]. - Outlook: The US Treasury Secretary called for more aggressive interest rate cuts, and the Fed is expected to adopt a more accommodative monetary policy. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: The US dollar index weakened, and copper prices rose and then fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic spot premiums were firm. - Price trend: Copper prices may be volatile and strong in the short term, with the Shanghai copper main contract operating in the range of 78600 - 79800 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M in the range of 9650 - 9850 US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - Market: The domestic commodity atmosphere cooled, and aluminum prices fluctuated and corrected. LME inventory increased slightly, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. - Price trend: Aluminum prices may be volatile in the short term, with the domestic main contract operating in the range of 20550 - 20800 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M in the range of 2580 - 2640 US dollars/ton [11]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell slightly. Zinc ore was in a loose supply situation, and domestic zinc ingots were in excess. - Price trend: Zinc prices still face significant downward risks [12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose slightly. Lead ore port inventory increased, and the start - up rate of primary lead recovered. Downstream consumption pressure was high. - Price trend: Lead prices may be volatile and strong in the short term [15]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. Nickel ore prices were stable, and nickel iron prices rose slightly, but the surplus pressure remained. - Price trend: Nickel prices may rebound slightly in the short term but face correction pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [16]. Tin - Market: Tin prices fluctuated. Supply was expected to increase in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply pressure remained. Demand was weak domestically but strong overseas due to AI computing power. - Price trend: Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the range of 250000 - 275000 yuan/ton in the domestic market and 31000 - 34000 US dollars/ton in the LME market [17]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose, and the futures price also increased. The market was affected by supply news and capital games. - Price trend: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders can seize entry points. The reference operating range of the 2511 contract is 82400 - 88880 yuan/ton [18][19]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices fell. Ore supply disturbances continued, but the over - capacity pattern remained. - Strategy: It is recommended to short on rallies after the short - term bullish sentiment fades. The reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 3100 - 3500 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly. Social inventory decreased, and market trading was inactive. - Price trend: The stainless steel market may continue to consolidate in the short term [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose slightly. The downstream was in the off - season, with weak supply and demand. - Price trend: The upward space of prices is relatively limited [22]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices fell. Rebar showed a pattern of increasing supply and demand, and hot - rolled coil showed a pattern of decreasing supply and demand, with both inventories rising. - Price trend: If demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may fall [25]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell slightly. Overseas shipments and arrivals decreased, and iron water production decreased slightly. - Price trend: Iron ore prices are mainly affected by sentiment and fundamentals, and attention should be paid to changes in terminal demand [27]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Glass prices fell significantly. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and follow macro - sentiment in the long term [28]. - Soda Ash: Soda ash prices fluctuated widely. Inventory increased, and downstream demand was difficult to improve quickly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and the price center may rise in the long term [29]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell slightly. The market is affected by "anti - involution" sentiment and fundamentals. - Strategy: It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and hedging funds can seize opportunities [30][31]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Industrial silicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase, and demand can provide some support. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [35]. - Polysilicon: Polysilicon prices fell. Supply is expected to increase in August, and inventory is likely to accumulate. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [36]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market: NR and RU oscillated. The long and short sides have different views. - Strategy: It is recommended to have a neutral view and operate in and out quickly, and consider short - term spread trading [43]. Crude Oil - Market: Crude oil prices fell. US commercial crude oil inventory increased, and SPR inventory increased slightly. - Outlook: Oil prices are currently underestimated, and it is a good opportunity for left - side layout [44]. Methanol - Market: Methanol prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and port inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [45]. Urea - Market: Urea prices fell. Domestic start - up decreased, and demand was weak. - Strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to long positions on dips [46]. Styrene - Market: Styrene prices fell. The cost side provides support, and the port inventory decreased significantly. - Price trend: The BZN spread may repair, and prices may rise with the cost side after inventory reduction [47]. PVC - Market: PVC prices fell. Supply was strong, demand was weak, and inventory increased. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [49]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply decreased slightly, demand increased slightly, and port inventory increased. - Price trend: The short - term valuation may decline [50]. PTA - Market: PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate, and demand is expected to improve after the off - season. - Strategy: Pay attention to the opportunity to go long with PX on dips after the peak season [51]. p - Xylene - Market: PX prices fell. PX load remained high, and downstream PTA maintenance increased. - Price trend: PX is expected to continue to destock, and pay attention to the opportunity to go long with crude oil on dips after the peak season [52]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market: PE prices fell. Supply pressure is expected to increase in August, and demand is in the off - season. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions [53]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market: PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and supply and demand are both weak in the off - season. - Price trend: PP prices may rise slightly with crude oil in July [54]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Pig prices rose slightly. Supply is not short, and there is room for future price increases. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips for medium - and long - term contracts and pay attention to spread trading opportunities for far - month contracts [56]. Eggs - Market: Egg prices were mostly stable. Supply was large, and the price performance in the peak season was weaker than expected. - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the price rebounds [57]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans rose slightly, and rapeseed meal fell from the high. Domestic soybean meal spot basis decreased. - Strategy: It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost range of soybean meal and pay attention to changes in Sino - US trade relations [60]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices rose slightly, and rapeseed oil prices fluctuated. Malaysian palm oil exports increased in early August. - Strategy: Oils and fats prices are expected to oscillate, and the upward space is limited [62]. Sugar - Market: Sugar prices rebounded. Brazilian sugar exports increased in early August. - Price trend: International and domestic sugar supply is expected to increase, and Zhengzhou sugar prices may continue to fall [63]. Cotton - Market: Cotton prices rebounded. The USDA report was positive, and Sino - US tariffs were suspended. - Price trend: Cotton prices may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term [64].

据浙商期货油脂油料分析师王璐介绍，加拿大作为我国菜系产品的主要进口来源国，分别占国内进口菜 籽、菜粕总量的90%和70%以上。此次反倾销调查初裁"落地"，后续加拿大油菜籽的到港成本将抬升， 恐影响国内菜粕及菜油供应。"其中，菜油端因近年来自俄罗斯等地的进口量有所提升，加之国内豆油 供应的支撑，预计其后续供应紧张程度将弱于菜粕。" 王璐说。 "事实上，我国自2024年9月启动对加拿大油菜籽反倾销调查以来，国内菜籽进口量已显著下滑。同时， 由于保证金措施最长可持续7个月，叠加18个月的调查期限制，国内四季度的菜籽供应预计将继续下 降，这对菜籽粕、菜籽油期货价格均构成利多支撑。"石丽红补充说。 供需共振增强上涨动能 值得注意的是，当前是水产养殖旺季，正逢菜粕刚性需求高峰。国元期货油脂油料分析师刘金鹭表示， 菜粕刚性需求增加，供应收缩预期与强势现实需求形成共振，短期价格易涨难跌。 "整体来看，在反倾销调查初裁认定的刺激下，菜系期货短期内将维持强势格局。"刘金鹭同时提醒，事 件驱动是当前盘面的主要支撑，但也需警惕高库存压力以及豆粕等替代品竞争可能引发的回调风 险。"投资者可关注远月合约的多头机会，同时密切跟踪中加贸易谈 ...

Market Overview - The agricultural processing sector increased by 0.34% on August 13, with XD Zhongliang Sugar leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3683.46, up 0.48%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11551.36, up 1.76% [1] Top Performers - XD Zhongliang Sugar (600737) closed at 11.47, up 4.84%, with a trading volume of 1.4852 million shares and a turnover of 1.664 billion [1] - Jinlongyu (300999) closed at 31.53, up 2.64%, with a trading volume of 369,800 shares and a turnover of 1.173 billion [1] - ST Langyuan (300175) closed at 5.30, up 2.32%, with a trading volume of 91,600 shares and a turnover of 48.128 million [1] Underperformers - Oufu Egg Industry (839371) closed at 10.87, down 1.81%, with a trading volume of 33,300 shares and a turnover of 36.518 million [2] - *ST Zhongji (000972) closed at 3.61, down 1.63%, with a trading volume of 186,800 shares and a turnover of 68.045 million [2] - Daodaoquan (002852) closed at 12.09, down 1.63%, with a trading volume of 142,200 shares and a turnover of 172 million [2] Capital Flow - The agricultural processing sector saw a net inflow of 76.4848 million from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 5.9339 million [2] - Major stocks like XD Zhongliang Sugar and Jinlongyu had varying capital flows, with XD Zhongliang Sugar seeing a net inflow of 8.5064 million from retail investors [3]

格隆汇8月13日丨索宝蛋白(603231.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，公司主营业务为大豆蛋白系列产品的研 发、生产和销售，已构建起完整的非转基因大豆深加工产业链。公司暂未生产婴幼儿抗过敏大豆蛋白。 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特10合约跌0.9％。上周美国API原油库存超预期增加151.9万桶，馏分油 库存亦录得增长,四季度旺季过后需求回落叠加OPEC+220万桶/天剩余产能完成回归,盈余幅度约 是前三季度的两倍，中期供需宽松压力始终存在。原油市场仍在等待美俄会谈带来新的方向指引， 而谈判的双向结果均将引发油价较大波动,本周暂以震荡行情看待,关注SC10合约虚值期权的双买 机会。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属表现震荡，美国公布7月CP1年率持平在2.7%略低于预期，不过核心CP1年率录得3.1%高 于预期为五个月高位,数据发布后市场维持美联储9月重启降息的押注,特朗普发文再度敦促降息。 聚焦本周美俄领导会谈，市场情绪面临波动，贵金属震荡趋势中耐心等待回调布局机会。 （铜） 隔夜铜价走高，中美延长现行关税政策，且美国7月CPI增幅低于预期，支持9月降息，美元走低， 美股再高。沪铜夜盘再临7.95万，关注今日现货报价。7月国内铜产出再创新高，市场预计8月环降 幅度不大。倾向铜价难有效突破7.95万,逢高空配。 (铝) ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年08月13日 (原油) 隔夜国际油价回落，布伦特10合约跌0.9％。上周美国API原油库存超预期增加151.9万桶，馏分油 库存亦录得增长,四季度旺季过后需求回落叠加OPEC+220万桶/天剩余产能完成回归,盈余幅度约 是前三季度的两倍，中期供需宽松压力始终存在。原油市场仍在等待美俄会谈带来新的方向指引， 而谈判的双向结果均将引发油价较大波动,本周暂以震荡行情看待,关注SC10合约虚值期权的双买 机会。 (责金属) 隔夜贵金属表现震荡，美国公布7月CP1年率持平在2.7%略低于预期，不过核心CP1年率录得3.1%高 于预期为五个月高位,数据发布后市场维持美联储9月重启降息的押注,特朗普发文再度敦促降息。 聚焦本周美俄领导会谈，市场情绪面临波动，贵金属震荡趋势中耐心等待回调布局机会。 （铜） 隔夜铜价走高，中美延长现行关税政策，且美国7月CPI增幅低于预期，支持9月降息，美元走低， 美股再高。沪铜夜盘再临7.95万，关注今日现货报价。7月国内铜产出再创新高，市场预计8月环降 幅度不大。倾向铜价难有效突破7.95万,逢高空配。 (铝) ...