1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. Large - scale farms have reduced their slaughter, supporting short - term pig prices. It is expected that both pig and pork supply will decrease this week. The overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. The market may see a decrease in both supply and demand this week, with short - term pig prices oscillating downward and mid - term prices maintaining a range - bound pattern. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of group farms in the middle of the month and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis of the 2601 contract is 20 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [8]. - As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2%, presenting a bearish situation [8]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and moving downward, which is bearish [8]. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, also indicating a bearish situation [8]. - Recently, both supply and demand of pigs have started to decrease. It is expected that pig prices will bottom out and return to a volatile pattern this week. The LH2601 contract of pigs is expected to oscillate in the range of 11,400 - 11,800 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 3.2 Recent News - Affected by the arrival of the off - season, after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the slaughter of large pigs has decreased, resulting in a decrease in both supply and demand of pigs. The spot price is weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term [10]. - After the festivals, the demand for pork has weakened in the short term, but the supply has also decreased, so the room for further decline in the spot price may be limited, and it may show a trend of bottoming out and rebounding [10]. - The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, and the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has weakened in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of pig futures and spot prices [10]. - After the National Day, the spot price of pigs has bottomed out and rebounded, and the futures will generally maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic pig spot price may be limited [11]. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic pig inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Inventory data**: As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2%. As of June 30, the pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [8][25][26]. - **Price data**: From November 12 to 19, the prices of the main 2601 and far - month 2603 pig futures contracts fluctuated, and the number of pig futures warehouse receipts remained at 90. The spot prices of outer - ternary pigs in different regions also showed certain fluctuations [12]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided other than the fact that the main players' net position is short and the short positions are decreasing [8].

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 需求提升有限，猪价维持震荡 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2601合约11560元/吨，较前交易日变动+25.00元/吨，幅度+0.22%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格11.71元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.11元/公斤，现货基差 LH01+150，较前交易日变动+85；江苏地 区外三元生猪价格 11.77元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.02元/公斤，现货基差LH01+210，较前交易日变动-5；四川地 区外三元生猪价格11.25元/公斤，较前交易日变动+0.00元/公斤，现货基差LH01-310，较前交易日变动-25。 据农业农村部监测，11月19日"农产品批发价格200指数"为125.44，比昨天上升0.03个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为127.55，比昨天上升0.04个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为17.92元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；牛肉66.70 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.3%；羊肉62.38元/公斤，比昨天下降0.9%；鸡蛋7.31元/公斤，比昨天下降0.5%；白条鸡17.47 元/公斤，比昨天下降0.6%。 市场分析 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes accelerating agricultural modernization and promoting comprehensive rural revitalization, with Chongqing's Rongchang District focusing on enhancing agricultural production capacity and quality efficiency as a key priority for modernization [4] Group 1: Forum Overview - The 11th China Animal Husbandry Technology Forum will be held in Rongchang from November 19 to 21, 2025, aiming to support high-quality agricultural development and facilitate the transformation of animal husbandry technology and industry [4] - Since its inception in 2004, the forum has evolved from an academic exchange to a collaborative platform, completing over 2,000 provincial and ministerial-level research projects and winning more than 200 science and technology progress awards [5][6] Group 2: Key Features of the Forum - The forum aligns closely with national strategies, focusing on food security and self-reliance in agricultural technology, providing intellectual support for the development of the animal husbandry sector during the 14th Five-Year Plan [5] - It emphasizes innovation by addressing bottlenecks in sustainable development and technology, fostering discussions on smart animal husbandry and green technology [5] - The forum will launch a national animal husbandry technology trading market to enhance the matching of innovative results with industry needs [5] Group 3: Technological Advancements - Rongchang has implemented smart farming technologies, such as real-time monitoring of environmental parameters and livestock health, significantly improving farming efficiency [6] - The establishment of the "Future Pig Farm" demonstration site integrates insurance and electronic chip technology, creating a comprehensive data chain from farming to traceability [6] Group 4: Industry Ecosystem - Rongchang has developed a comprehensive industry ecosystem encompassing research, breeding, farming, processing, feed, veterinary medicine, and biomedicine, supported by local universities and research institutions [7] - The district has established a three-tier collaborative protection system for local pig breeds, enhancing genetic resource conservation [7] - Rongchang's livestock industry has diversified, with a focus on Rongchang pigs, white geese, and other livestock, creating a "1+2+N" development pattern [7] Group 5: Sustainable Development Initiatives - The district prioritizes ecological and green development, achieving a comprehensive utilization rate of livestock waste of 90.92% and establishing the first "waste-free farm" in the city [9] - Rongchang has been recognized as a practice innovation base for ecological product value realization, contributing to sustainable agricultural practices [9] Group 6: Future Directions - Rongchang aims to further enhance agricultural productivity through technological innovation and resource integration, positioning itself as a model for sustainable development in the animal husbandry sector [10]

Price Trends - The national average price of live pigs on November 19 was 11.61 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg from the previous day [1] - The price monitoring indicates that 31 provinces showed 13 price increases, 0 decreases, and 18 stable prices, reflecting a steady upward trend [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply index for meat in Chongqing increased by 4.63% compared to the previous day [1] - The wholesale trading volume of pork in Beijing was 590,500 kg, a decrease of 0.12% from the previous day [1] - There is a prevailing sentiment among some farmers to hold back on selling, leading to a temporary tightening of pig circulation [3] Regional Insights - In southern regions, there is a slight recovery in local demand due to early preparations for the curing season [3] - Overall downstream demand remains acceptable, with expectations for continued price increases in the coming days [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of lamb supply and pricing in Chengdu, highlighting a significant increase in demand and prices as winter approaches [1][3][4]. Supply and Demand - Chengdu's main agricultural wholesale market has a daily lamb shipment volume of approximately 2,000 heads, with peak periods reaching up to 10,000 heads [3][4]. - The primary sources of lamb for Chengdu are Qinghai, Gansu, and Inner Mongolia, with current wholesale prices around 30 yuan per jin, reflecting a 20% increase compared to the same period last year [4]. Price Trends - The price of lamb has risen by 1-2 yuan recently, and compared to the same time last year, it has increased by 5-6 yuan, indicating a price surge of about 20% [4]. - The increase in prices is attributed to a decline in domestic lamb production due to lower prices in recent years, with a reported 15% decrease in lamb output in Sichuan for 2024 [4]. Local Lamb Varieties - Chengdu is home to three main local lamb breeds: Chengdu Ma Sheep, Chuan Zhong Black Goat (Jintang type), and Jianzhou Big Ear Sheep, with the latter being the first quality meat sheep breed developed in Chengdu [5][9]. - The Chuan Zhong Black Goat (Jintang type) is particularly noted for its stable genetic performance and high reproductive capacity, making it a key breed for improving local goat varieties across various provinces [5][7]. Export and Breeding Initiatives - Jianzhou Big Ear Sheep has been successfully exported to Uganda as part of a cooperation project aimed at developing the local livestock industry [9]. - The breeding efforts for Chuan Zhong Black Goat (Jintang type) have led to significant advancements, with adult goats reaching weights of 100 jin and a meat yield rate of approximately 52% [7].

Group 1 - The average price of external three yuan live pigs in China increased to 11.66 yuan/kg on November 19, 2025, up by 0.07 yuan/kg from the previous day [1][2] - The average price of piglets rose to 19.12 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.01 yuan/kg, while the average price of white strip meat reached 15.49 yuan/kg, up by 0.02 yuan/kg [1][2] - The pig feed-to-meat ratio is now 3.50:1, which is an increase of 0.02 from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The northern pig prices generally experienced slight increases, while the southern market remained stable, contributing to the national average price rise [2][3] - The recent drop in temperatures has led to a slight recovery in terminal consumption, with an increase in slaughterhouse operating rates, boosting the optimism among breeders [2] - Despite the upward trend in prices, the overall supply of live pigs in November remains relatively high, and demand growth is limited, indicating that the price increase is largely driven by sentiment rather than fundamental supply-demand dynamics [2][3]

毛宁当天还指出，如果日方拒不撤回，甚至一错再错，中方将不得不采取严厉坚决的反制措施，由此产 生的一切后果由日方承担。 本文系观察者网独家稿件，未经授权，不得转载。 此外，据日本广播协会（NHK）19日报道，中方已向日方正式通报将暂停进口日本水产品。 中国外交部发言人毛宁同日主持例行记者会时回应，近期由于日本首相高市早苗倒行逆施，在台湾等重 大问题上的错误言论引起中国民众的强烈公愤。当前形势下，即使日本水产品向中国出口，也不会有市 场。 当地时间19日，日本共同社援引多名日本政府消息人士的话报道称，根据中方的意向，有关恢复日本牛 肉对华出口的政府间磋商已中止。 共同社称，中国自2001年起暂停进口日本产牛肉，两国政府在2019年签署动物卫生检疫协定，但后来停 滞，未能推进。今年7月，日方表示中方关于日本牛肉的动物卫生检疫协定已正式生效，这一协定生效 是日本牛肉重启出口的重大前提。为实现实际重启出口，双方将围绕食品卫生和检疫方面继续展开谈 判。 ...

Core Insights - The Tai Xing Livestock and Veterinary Center is focusing on enhancing the new quality productivity of the livestock industry through professional technical support and efficient service guarantees, aiming to boost both scale and efficiency in the industry, thereby injecting strong momentum into rural revitalization [1] Group 1: Industry Development Initiatives - The center has selected 52 key personnel to form 9 technology service teams, providing "one-on-one" services to 74 large and medium-sized breeding and slaughter enterprises in the city, addressing critical areas such as feed formulation, environmental control, and breeding [1] - A total of 707.8 million yuan has been integrated to support the development of the livestock industry, with policies like pig subsidy, smart farm construction, and disease prevention showing effective results [2] - The black pig industry has seen growth, with 26 pig farms enhancing their production capacity through partnerships with large enterprises, such as the Suzi Black Pig completing three generations of genetic improvement [2] Group 2: Disease Prevention and Sustainability - The center emphasizes a "prevention first, control combined" approach, achieving a 98% compliance rate for livestock antibodies and a more than 30% year-on-year decrease in pig mortality [2] - The resource utilization rate of livestock manure is projected to reach 98.53% by 2024, with enterprises like Hongtai Livestock Breeding Center benefiting from financial subsidies for manure facility upgrades [2] Group 3: Future Directions - The center plans to strengthen party leadership, refine service measures, and focus on the intelligent and green transformation of the industry, aiming to enhance the technical service and collaborative support systems for high-quality development in the livestock sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Dongxing Securities indicates that pig prices experienced a bottom rebound in October, rising above 12 yuan/kg by the end of the month, but the sustainability of this upward trend is weak, leading to a price correction in November, with an average price of 11.80 yuan/kg as of November 10 [1][2]. Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In October, some enterprises reduced the weight of pigs to accelerate cash flow, resulting in actual slaughter exceeding planned numbers. Following a slight rebound in prices, there is an increased tendency to secure profits due to pessimistic market expectations, leading to significant monthly slaughter pressure [2][4]. - Demand Side: The pace of secondary fattening increased in mid-October, providing slight support for short-term prices. However, after the price rebound, market participants returned to a wait-and-see attitude. Additionally, the rise in northern temperatures at the end of October suppressed meat consumption, and demand for cured meat in the south has not yet started, indicating insufficient demand support [2][4]. Capacity Change Trends - As of the end of September, the number of breeding sows was 40.35 million, a decrease of 0.70% month-on-month. Data from various sources show a mixed trend in October, with a slight decline in breeding sow samples and a minor increase in others, indicating limited willingness to reduce production capacity due to previous backlogs and a slight price rebound [3]. Policy and Market Outlook - With ongoing policy adjustments and low prices, capacity reduction is expected to accelerate. Recent meetings have emphasized production capacity control and other requirements, with leading enterprises responding positively. As of November 14, 2025, the average profit per head for self-bred pigs was -114.81 yuan, indicating continued losses in the industry. The combination of policy implementation and accumulated losses suggests a potential upward price turning point in the second half of 2026 [4][5]. Future Cycle Prediction - The core theme for the near future will be capacity control guided by policy, with expectations for the elimination of outdated capacity increasing. The cost advantages of high-quality production capacity are expected to become more pronounced, leading to better profit elasticity post-regulation. Although the industry index PB has rebounded, it remains below historical median levels, indicating a safety margin for valuations. Recommended stocks include leading breeding companies with high performance realization rates, such as Muyuan Foods (002714.SZ), along with other related companies like Wens Foodstuff Group (300498.SZ), Tiankang Biological (002100.SZ), and Shennong Group (605296.SH) [5]. October Sales Data of Listed Companies - The average sales price in October decreased month-on-month for major companies, with Muyuan Foods, Wens, Zhengbang Technology, and New Hope reporting average prices of 11.55, 11.57, 11.28, and 11.28 yuan/kg, respectively, reflecting declines of 10.33%, 12.22%, 11.53%, and 12.49% [6]. - Slaughter volumes increased significantly, with Muyuan Foods, Wens, New Hope, and Zhengbang Technology achieving sales of 708, 389, 169, and 91 million heads, respectively, marking increases of 26.97%, 17.07%, 20.87%, and 14.81% month-on-month [6]. - The average slaughter weight showed a slight increase, with Muyuan Foods, Wens, and New Hope reporting average weights of 126.41, 112.08, and 100.91 kg, respectively, indicating a general upward trend in average slaughter weights [6].

Core Insights - Xilin Gol League is leveraging its regional advantages to establish itself as a significant agricultural and livestock product production base, focusing on high-quality development in animal husbandry through the "grassland meat library," "ecological milk can," and "green grass city" initiatives [1] Group 1: Grassland Meat Library - The city is promoting a shift from quantity to quality in sheep farming, emphasizing the importance of superior breeding stock to enhance income and reduce pasture burden [2] - A breeding system has been established for the Ujumqin sheep, including a breeding center and multiple breeding farms, with an annual supply capacity of over 3,000 breeding sheep [2] - The beef cattle industry is also seeing improvements, with the establishment of two breeding farms and a focus on high-quality breeds like Simmental and Huaxi, leading to increased profitability for local farmers [3] Group 2: Ecological Milk Can - The city is transitioning from selling live animals and fresh milk to selling processed dairy products, enhancing the value chain through industrial parks and integrating processing with tourism [4] - The establishment of the Shifang Food Industrial Park and the Cheese Culture Industrial Park has led to significant investments and production capacity, with annual output reaching approximately 28,000 tons of various dairy products [4][5] - A cooperative model led by grassroots organizations is helping small dairy producers improve sales and profitability, with a focus on direct sales and e-commerce [6] Group 3: Green Grass City - The city is prioritizing ecological protection while enhancing forage supply, integrating natural grassland management with technological advancements in forage production [7] - The Maodeng Ranch has developed a 360,000-acre ecological park, significantly improving vegetation coverage and forage variety, which has led to increased production [8] - Technological innovations, such as hydroponic forage systems, are addressing challenges related to weather dependency in forage supply, creating a robust supply system for the livestock industry [9]