市场表现： 证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 25 日 星期二 【A 股市场大势研判】 市场全天探底回升，三大指数集体收红 | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3836.77 | 0.05% | 1.87 | | | 深证成指 | 12585.08 | 0.37% | 47.01 | | | 沪深 300 | 4448.05 | -0.12% | -5.56 | | | 创业板 | 2929.04 | 0.31% | 8.97 | | | 科创 50 | 1296.60 | 0.84% | 10.77 | | | 北证 50 | 1386.04 | 0.63% | 8.64 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： | 申万一级涨幅前五 | | | 申万一级跌幅前五 | 热点板块 n | 涨幅前五 | 热点板块跌幅前五 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国防军工 | 4.31% | 石油石 ...

上证指数-沪深 300 走势图 -7% 3% 13% 23% 33% 2024-11 2025-02 2025-05 2025-08 上证指数 沪深300 晨会纪要（R3） 晨会纪要 | 何晨 | 分析师 | | --- | --- | | 执业证书编号:S0530513080001 | | | hechen@hnchasing.com | | | 周剑 | 分析师 | | 执业证书编号:S0530525090001 | | | zhoujian64@hnchasing.com | | 2025 年 11 月 25 日 晨会聚焦 | 市场数据 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 收盘 | 涨跌% | | 上证指数 | 3836.77 | 0.05 | | 深证成指 | 12585.08 | 0.37 | | 创业板指 | 2929.04 | 0.31 | | 科创 50 | 1296.60 | 0.84 | | 北证 50 | 1386.04 | 0.63 | | 沪深 300 | 4448.05 | -0.12 | | 一、财信研究观点 | | --- | | 【市场策略】 ...

Group 1 - The report indicates a general market pressure with the A-share market declining by 5.13% during the week of November 17-21, with all 31 Shenwan industries experiencing a drop, particularly in advanced manufacturing and basic chemicals [2][10][12] - The stock-bond yield spread has increased to 0.8%, which is below the +1 standard deviation, indicating a decrease in valuation differentiation [3][22] - Market sentiment has adjusted, with an increase in industry rotation intensity, particularly favoring large-cap stocks over micro-cap stocks [3][23] Group 2 - The report highlights significant industry movements, including the launch of the multimodal AI assistant "Lingguang," which achieved over one million downloads within four days, indicating strong market interest in AI applications [4][49] - The proposed merger of China International Capital Corporation (CICC) with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities is expected to reshape the brokerage industry landscape, suggesting potential investment opportunities [4][50] - The 2025 Quantum Technology and Industry Conference showcased major advancements in quantum technology, emphasizing the sector's growth potential and investment opportunities [4][51] Group 3 - The report suggests a phase of rebalancing in market styles, with a focus on sectors that have previously lagged, such as dividends and domestic demand, which may offer better value in the short term [5][53] - Long-term prospects remain positive for technology growth sectors, including TMT, energy storage, satellite connectivity, and innovative pharmaceuticals [5][53]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market showed a rebound with all major indices closing in the green, driven by significant inflows into the defense and military sector, as well as the resurgence of AI applications in financial technology [1][2] Group 1: Defense and Military Sector - The defense and military sector emerged as a leading performer, with over 133 billion yuan in net inflows, marking it as the top sector for institutional investment [2][5] - The defense military ETF (512810) saw a substantial increase of 3.78%, achieving its largest single-day gain since July, with 77 out of 79 covered stocks closing in the green [3][6] - Geopolitical factors are fueling the demand for defense spending, with expectations for increased investment in national defense and military capabilities [5][6] Group 2: AI and Financial Technology - The financial technology sector rebounded, with the largest financial technology ETF (159851) rising by 2%, indicating a recovery in market confidence [13][15] - Alibaba's AI assistant, Qianwen, achieved over 10 million downloads in just one week, highlighting the rapid growth of AI applications [15][10] - Analysts believe that the financial sector is an ideal testing ground for AI applications, with significant potential for transforming business processes and enhancing profitability [15][16] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong innovation drug sector also experienced a rebound, with leading companies like 3SBio and Heng Rui Medicine showing strong performance [2] - The Hong Kong internet ETF (513770) saw a price increase of over 2%, reflecting strong buying interest and a favorable valuation compared to A-shares [9][10] - The valuation of the Hong Kong internet sector is at a historical low, making it an attractive investment opportunity as it includes key players in AI and technology [9][10]

Group 1: Overall Strategy and Market Trends - The report highlights a dual-driven strategy where technology and cyclical sectors are rebalancing, with opportunities in the chemical industry emerging under the "anti-involution" trend [7][8] - The A-share market is experiencing accelerated capacity clearance, indicating a turning point for cyclical industries, particularly in chemicals, which show significant advantages over traditional sectors like steel and coal [8][9] - The chemical industry is expected to enter a new prosperity cycle driven by supply-demand recovery and anti-involution policies, with a notable decrease in capital expenditure and a resilient export market [9][10] Group 2: Industry-Specific Insights - The military industry is currently facing high valuations, with a PE-TTM of 67.34, indicating a slight decrease from previous weeks, while geopolitical uncertainties are expected to accelerate military orders [13][14] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with new home transaction areas increasing month-on-month, supported by government policies aimed at boosting investment and consumption [17][21] - The consumer services sector, particularly in tourism and dining, is witnessing a recovery, with companies like Ctrip and Haidilao reporting strong performance and expansion plans [24][25] Group 3: Company-Specific Developments - Lenovo Group is benefiting from the Windows 11 upgrade cycle, with a projected non-GAAP net profit growth of 21.8% for FY2026, reflecting strong supply chain resilience [29][30] - NetEase is expected to see growth driven by overseas gaming expansion and new game launches, with a projected net profit increase of 31.8% in Q3 2025 [34][35] - Dawi Technology is focusing on AI data centers, with plans to enhance its competitive edge through strategic partnerships and infrastructure development [38][39]

Core Insights - The defense and military industry saw the highest net inflow of funds today, amounting to 5.466 billion yuan, with a price change of 4.31% and a turnover rate of 5.03% [1][2] - The electronics industry experienced the largest net outflow of funds, totaling -6.708 billion yuan, with a price change of 0.64% and a turnover rate of 2.64% [1][2] Industry Summary - **Defense and Military**: - Net inflow: 5.466 billion yuan - Price change: 4.31% - Turnover rate: 5.03% - Volume change: +22.66% [1] - **Media**: - Net inflow: 2.542 billion yuan - Price change: 3.49% - Turnover rate: 5.61% - Volume change: +22.36% [1] - **Construction Decoration**: - Net inflow: 0.627 billion yuan - Price change: 1.36% - Turnover rate: 1.30% - Volume change: -23.46% [1] - **Retail**: - Net inflow: 0.484 billion yuan - Price change: 1.08% - Turnover rate: 2.13% - Volume change: -22.40% [1] - **Social Services**: - Net inflow: 0.325 billion yuan - Price change: 2.22% - Turnover rate: 3.23% - Volume change: -1.53% [1] - **Electronics**: - Net outflow: -6.708 billion yuan - Price change: 0.64% - Turnover rate: 2.64% - Volume change: -16.97% [1][2] - **Banking**: - Net outflow: -0.398 billion yuan - Price change: -0.79% - Turnover rate: 0.36% - Volume change: -16.46% [2] - **Pharmaceuticals**: - Net outflow: -0.711 billion yuan - Price change: 1.25% - Turnover rate: 1.85% - Volume change: -26.72% [2] - **Food and Beverage**: - Net outflow: -1.042 billion yuan - Price change: -0.56% - Turnover rate: 1.21% - Volume change: -23.20% [2] - **Non-Banking Financials**: - Net outflow: -1.272 billion yuan - Price change: -0.05% - Turnover rate: 0.73% - Volume change: -36.56% [2] - **Electric Equipment**: - Net outflow: -2.087 billion yuan - Price change: 0.49% - Turnover rate: 3.04% - Volume change: -28.56% [2]

Core Viewpoint - The defense and military industry experienced a significant increase of 4.31% on November 24, with a net inflow of 5.466 billion yuan in capital, indicating strong investor interest in this sector [1][2]. Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.05% on November 24, with 19 out of 28 sectors showing gains, led by the defense and military industry and media, which increased by 4.31% and 3.49% respectively [1]. - The oil and petrochemical, as well as coal industries, were the worst performers, declining by 1.21% and 1.09% respectively [1]. Capital Flow - Overall, the main capital in the two markets saw a net outflow of 10.192 billion yuan, with 11 sectors experiencing net inflows [1]. - The defense and military industry had the highest net inflow of capital at 5.466 billion yuan, followed by the media industry with 2.542 billion yuan [1]. Individual Stock Performance in Defense Industry - Out of 138 stocks in the defense and military sector, 135 stocks rose, with 11 hitting the daily limit up, while only 2 stocks fell, and 1 hit the daily limit down [2]. - The top three stocks with the highest net inflow in the defense sector were: - Changcheng Military Industry: 984 million yuan - Aerospace Development: 516 million yuan - China Shipbuilding: 514 million yuan [2]. Capital Outflow in Defense Industry - The stocks with the highest net outflow in the defense sector included: - Jianglong Shipbuilding: -139 million yuan - Huafeng Technology: -6.108 million yuan - Shanghai Hanhua: -4.167 million yuan [4].

Market Overview - The net outflow of large orders in the two markets reached 321 million yuan, with 2,043 stocks experiencing net inflows and 2,660 stocks facing net outflows [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed up by 0.05% [1] Industry Performance - Among the 12 industries with net inflows, the defense and military industry led with a net inflow of 4.99 billion yuan and an index increase of 4.31% [1] - The media industry followed with a net inflow of 2.73 billion yuan and a rise of 3.49% [1] - Other notable industries with significant net inflows include construction decoration and computer sectors [1] - Conversely, 19 industries experienced net outflows, with the electronics sector seeing the highest outflow of 4.76 billion yuan [1] - The power equipment sector followed with a net outflow of 1.36 billion yuan [1] Individual Stock Performance - A total of 24 stocks had net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with BlueFocus leading at 1.706 billion yuan [2] - Great Wall Military Industry ranked second with a net inflow of 989 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant inflows include Provincial Advertising Group, 360 Security Technology, and Data Harbor [2] - On the outflow side, Industrial Fulian had the highest net outflow of 1.743 billion yuan [4] - Other stocks with significant outflows include Zhongji Xuchuang and Rongji Software, with outflows of 1.248 billion yuan and 679 million yuan, respectively [4] Stock Price Movements - Stocks with net inflows exceeding 200 million yuan saw an average increase of 9.94%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [2] - Notable stocks that closed at their daily limit include Guangyun Technology and Provincial Advertising Group [2] Sector Concentration - The stocks with the highest net inflows are concentrated in the defense and military, computer, and communication sectors, with 6, 4, and 3 stocks respectively [2]

沪指11月24日上涨0.05%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有19个，涨幅居前的行业为国防军工、传媒， 涨幅分别为4.31%、3.49%。计算机行业位居今日涨幅榜第三。跌幅居前的行业为石油石化、煤炭，跌 幅分别为1.21%、1.09%。 300036 超图软件 7.56 16.24 5180.15 计算机行业资金流出榜 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出101.92亿元，今日有11个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨4.31%，全天净流入资金54.66亿元，其次是传媒行业，日涨幅 为3.49%，净流入资金为25.42亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有20个，电子行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金67.08亿元，其次 是电力设备行业，净流出资金为20.87亿元，净流出资金较多的还有基础化工、通信、有色金属等行 业。 计算机行业今日上涨2.41%，全天主力资金净流出4.66亿元，该行业所属的个股共336只，今日上涨的有 312只，涨停的有9只；下跌的有23只。以资金流向数据进行统计，该行业资金净流入的个股有146只， 其中，净流入资金超亿元的有11只，净流入资金居首的是三六 ...

Market Liquidity Overview - R007 increased from 1.4945% to 1.4952%, a rise of 0.07 basis points, while DR007 decreased from 1.4673% to 1.4408%, a drop of 2.65 basis points. The spread between R007 and DR007 widened by 2.72 basis points [9] - The net outflow of funds this week was 40.114 billion yuan, with net inflow decreasing by 23.562 billion yuan compared to last week. Fund supply was 53.787 billion yuan, while demand was 93.901 billion yuan [11] Industry Sector Liquidity Tracking - All sectors in the CITIC first-level industry index experienced declines, with the comprehensive sector showing the most significant drop of 9.47%. The power equipment and new energy, as well as basic chemicals sectors, also saw slight declines [16] - The defense industry received the highest net inflow of leveraged funds at 0.507 billion yuan, while the electronics sector experienced the most significant net outflow of 10.594 billion yuan [18] Style Sector Liquidity Tracking - The style indices generally fell, with the cyclical and growth styles leading the decline at 6.02% and 5.73%, respectively. The growth style was the most active, accounting for 54.58% of the average daily trading volume [33] - The main funds in the style sectors showed a predominant trend of reduction, with the stable style seeing an increase of 0.378 billion yuan, while the growth style saw a reduction of 31.3 billion yuan [32]