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债市基本面高频数据跟踪:2025年12月第1周:成本下移,钢价普跌
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-10 14:21
Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - Economic growth shows cost reduction and widespread decline in steel prices, with production - related indicators such as power plant daily consumption, blast furnace operation rate, tire operation rate, and loom operation rate showing different trends; demand - side data for real estate, automobiles, steel, cement, glass, and shipping also vary [1][4]. - Inflation is characterized by the agricultural product price index being higher than in recent years, with different price trends for various agricultural products; PPI shows weak oil prices, and different trends for copper and aluminum prices [2][4]. Summary by Directory 1. Economic Growth: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices 1.1 Production: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption - **1.1.1 Production End: Seasonal Increase in Power Plant Daily Consumption** - On December 9, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generation groups was 79.7 tons, a 2.3% increase from December 2; on December 2, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 190.8 tons, a 3.9% increase from November 25. Heating demand in the north boosts power consumption, but demand in non - power industries has limited growth [4][12]. - **1.1.2 Production End: Overall Decline in Blast Furnace Operation Rate** - On December 5, the national blast furnace operation rate was 80.1%, a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease from November 28; the capacity utilization rate was 87.1%, also a 0.9 - percentage - point decrease. However, the blast furnace operation rate of Tangshan steel mills increased by 2.4 percentage points. Heavy - pollution response measures and weakening demand in the off - season led to the decline [4][17]. - **1.1.3 Production End: Slight Recovery in Tire Operation Rate** - On December 4, the operation rate of all - steel truck tires was 63.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from November 27; the operation rate of semi - steel car tires was 70.9%, a 1.7 - percentage - point increase. The loom operation rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region continued to decline [4][20]. 1.2 Demand: Cost Reduction and Widespread Decline in Steel Prices - **1.2.1 Demand End: Improved Monthly - on - Monthly New Home Sales in 30 Cities** - From December 1 - 9, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 256,000 square meters, a 42.0% increase from November, but a decline compared to the same period in previous years. Sales in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities all decreased year - on - year [4][25]. - **1.2.2 Demand End: Weak Growth in Automobile Retail Sales** - In December, retail sales decreased by 32% year - on - year, and wholesale sales decreased by 40% year - on - year. The low growth was due to high sales in December last year and the weakening impact of the trade - in policy [4][29]. - **1.2.3 Demand End: Widespread Decline in Steel Prices** - On December 9, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 2.4%, 2.1%, 2.7%, and 0.5% respectively compared to December 2. Steel inventory reduction accelerated [4][34]. - **1.2.4 Demand End: Moderate Increase in Cement Prices** - On December 9, the national cement price index increased by 0.4% compared to December 2, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions performing better. However, price increases were difficult to implement due to high inventory in some areas. The year - on - year decline in cement prices narrowed [4][35]. - **1.2.5 Demand End: Glass Prices Reached a New Low in the Second Half of the Year** - On December 9, the active glass futures contract price was 985 yuan/ton, a 5.2% decrease from December 2. Weak demand and high inventory were the main reasons [4][40]. - **1.2.6 Demand End: Container Shipping Freight Index Turned Down Again** - On December 5, the CCFI index decreased by 0.6% and the SCFI index decreased by 0.4% compared to November 28. Weak market demand and expanding container ship capacity dragged down freight rates [4][44]. 2. Inflation: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years 2.1 CPI: Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years - **2.1.1 Pork Prices Rose and Then Fell** - On December 9, the average wholesale price of pork was 17.6 yuan/kg, a 0.1% decrease from December 2. The pressure came from the concentrated slaughter at the end of the year. The month - on - month decline widened [4][49]. - **2.1.2 Agricultural Product Price Index Higher than in Recent Years** - On December 9, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 1.1% compared to December 2. Different agricultural products had different price trends. The year - on - year and month - on - month increases in the agricultural product price index were 6.0% and 2.4% respectively [4][55]. 2.2 PPI: Weak Oil Prices - **2.2.1 Oil Prices Weakened** - On December 9, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $62.8 and $58.3 per barrel respectively, a 2.2% and 0.7% decrease from December 2. Oversupply expectations and weakening geopolitical support led to the decline [4][58]. - **2.2.2 Copper Prices Rose and Aluminum Prices Fell** - On December 9, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum increased by 3.0% and decreased by 0.7% respectively compared to December 2. The domestic commodity index showed different trends in month - on - month changes [4][63]. - **2.2.3 Most Industrial Product Prices Declined Month - on - Month** - Since December, most industrial product prices declined month - on - month, with coking coal and coke having the largest declines. The year - on - year decline in most industrial product prices narrowed, except for cold - rolled sheet and glass [4][65].
斯总统阐述经济与灾后恢复计划
Shang Wu Bu Wang Zhan· 2025-12-10 14:18
在经济方面,他指出,斯刚刚完成了一次历史性的债务重组,但公共债务仍超过GDP 的 100%,并且易 受气候冲击。他认为,全球债务可持续性框架必须针对那些频繁遭受严重气候灾害的国家进行调整。在 国内,政府计划通过出口导向型增长、数字化拓宽税基,并在遵循国际货币基金组织项目参数的同时保 护核心社会支出。 为安抚投资者并遏制腐败,政府已推出单一窗口投资审批制度,计划制定《投资保护法》,并将对大型 项目实施透明、基于规则的评估。他表示,吸引可持续资本的关键在于可预测性,而不是优惠待遇。 斯里兰卡《每日新闻》12月10日报道,斯总统迪萨纳亚克在接受《新闻周刊》采访时表示,"迪特瓦"气 旋过后,国家正处于关键时刻。他提出一项"双轨战略",既包括立即救援,也包括长期制度改革。迪萨 纳亚克指出,政府在稳定经济的同时不会抛弃贫困群体。 "迪特瓦"气旋造成了严重的人力和经济损失:近 200 万人受到影响,约 5.5 万所房屋受损,大约 27.3 万 英亩稻田被毁,对粮食安全和农村生计造成了沉重打击。政府正优先推进防洪住房、农业恢复、定向现 金转移和维持基本药品和食品补贴等工作。 在外交方面,斯将寻求与美国更深入的合作,包括纺织品 ...
重磅规划建议出炉!海南自贸港概念掀涨停潮
2 1 Shi Ji Jing Ji Bao Dao· 2025-12-10 09:45
12月10日,A股市场探底回升,三大指数涨跌不一,从板块来看,海南板块持续走强,神农种业20cm涨 停,欣龙控股、罗牛山、海马汽车、海南高速等多股涨停,凯撒旅业、海峡股份、海南机场、海南矿业 等个股跟涨。 (文章来源:21世纪经济报道) 消息面上,今日《中共海南省委关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议》发布。建议明 确"十五五"时期海南经济社会发展的八大主要目标,包括高标准建设自由贸易港取得新进展、深化改革 开放取得新突破、经济发展质效实现新跨越、科技创新能级迈上新台阶、区域协调发展格局呈现新气 象、美丽海南建设展现新图景、人民生活水平达到新高、安全保障能力得到新提升等。 ...
隆平高科今日大宗交易折价成交100万股,成交额946万元
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 08:59
| 权益类证券大宗交易(协议交易) | | | | | | | | 团 下载 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 证券代码 | 证券简称 | 成交价格 | 成交量 | 成交金额 买方营业部 | | 卖方营业部 | | | | | | (元) | (万股/万份) | (万元) | | | | | 2025-12-10 | 000998 | 隆平高科 | 9.46 | 100.00 | 946.00 中信证券股份有限 | | 中信建投证券股份 | | | | | | | | | 公司北京总部证券 | 有限公司长沙金星 | | | | | | | | | 標 山域 | 由致证类型小编 | | 12月10日,隆平高科大宗交易成交100万股,成交额946万元,占当日总成交额的6.57%,成交价9.46 元,较市场收盘价9.58元折价1.25%。 ...
特朗普用三个字,让莫迪清楚意识到:印度与中国的差距
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-10 06:10
Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. meeting highlighted India's vulnerability in trade relations, particularly regarding rice exports, as President Trump expressed concerns over India's alleged dumping practices that harm American farmers [1][3]. Group 1: U.S.-India Trade Relations - Trump questioned the fairness of India's rice exports and suggested that they should be subject to tariffs, indicating a shift in U.S. trade policy focus towards India [3]. - The U.S. administration's stance reflects a broader strategy to address perceived trade imbalances, with India being pressured for greater market access and concessions [5]. - India's previous attempts to foster a special relationship with the U.S. through tariff reductions and military procurement have not yielded the expected benefits, exposing its weaknesses in negotiations [5]. Group 2: India's Strategic Response - In response to U.S. pressure, India has sought to diversify its partnerships, notably with Russia, to signal its strategic autonomy and reduce reliance on the U.S. [7]. - Despite India's efforts to balance its relations with Russia, the U.S. has intensified its demands, indicating that India's strategy may not effectively counter U.S. pressure [7][9]. - The contrasting responses of China and India to U.S. trade actions highlight India's limitations in leveraging its position, as China has employed robust countermeasures while India remains cautious [9]. Group 3: International Trade Dynamics - The situation underscores the reality that having ambitions as a major power is insufficient without the corresponding capabilities to assert those ambitions effectively [9]. - The dynamics of power politics reveal that not all nations can adopt a confrontational stance against superpowers like the U.S. without facing significant repercussions [9].
午评:创业板指跌超1% 海南板块大涨
Zheng Quan Shi Bao Wang· 2025-12-10 04:24
人民财讯12月10日电,A股三大指数早盘低开震荡,截至午间收盘,沪指跌0.72%,深证成指跌0.56%, 创业板指跌1.23%。盘面上,海南板块逆势走强,罗牛山、海南瑞泽涨停,神农种业涨超10%;零售板 块走高,中央商场、永辉超市等多股涨停;培育钻石概念走低,沃尔德跌超6%;此外,免税店、贵金 属、工程机械、影视院线、有色金属概念等涨幅居前;电源设备、光伏设备、消费电子、风电设备、 AI手机等板块跌幅居前。全市场半日成交额超1.1万亿元,较昨日缩量超1100亿元,超3800只个股下 跌。 ...
午评:沪指缩量跌0.72% 海南板块逆势走强
Zhong Guo Jin Rong Xin Xi Wang· 2025-12-10 04:12
转自:新华财经 新华财经北京12月10日电(王媛媛)A股三大指数早盘小幅调整,创业板指跌逾1%。截至午间收盘, 沪指报3881.51点,跌0.72%,成交4644亿元;深证成指报13202.49点,跌0.56%,成交6722亿元;创业 板指报3170.26点,跌1.23%,成交3136亿元。沪深两市半日成交额1.14万亿元,较上个交易日缩量1184 亿元。 板块方面,海南、贵金属、零售、影视院线等板块涨幅居前,培育钻石、光伏等板块跌幅居前。 盘面热点 盘面上,海南板块走强,罗牛山、海南瑞泽涨停。零售概念表现活跃,永辉超市、南京商旅双双3连 板。商业航天板块局部强势,再升科技3连板,天通股份2连板。多只福建人气股下挫,海欣食品触及跌 停,招标股份、红相股份(维权)大跌。 全市场上涨个股有1435家,下跌个股有3834家,39只股涨停。 机构观点 中海外钜融资产:当前支撑市场的因素主要包括:(1)进入12月,机构年内考核不确定性下降,止盈 压力减少;(2)政策预期和来年布局的投资者行为对市场的支撑增强;(3)保险资本使用效率提升, 证监会主席对资本市场的积极表态,市场情绪得到提振;(4)摩尔线程上市、DeepSe ...
2025年12月10日:期货市场交易指引-20251210
Chang Jiang Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 02:44
期货市场交易指引 交易咨询业务资格: 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 曹雪梅:Z0015756 电话:027-65777102 邮箱:caoxm2@cjsc.com.cn 全球主要市场表现 | 指标 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | | 上证综指 | 3,909.52 | -0.37% | | 深圳成指 | 13,277.36 | -0.39% | | 沪深 300 | 4,598.22 | -0.51% | | 上证 50 | 2,997.96 | -0.71% | | 中证 500 | 7,121.33 | -0.71% | | 中证 1000 | 5,903.58 | 0.25% | | 日经指数 | 50,655.10 | 0.14% | | 道琼指数 | 47,560.29 | -0.38% | | 标普 500 | 6,840.51 | -0.09% | | 纳斯达克 | 23,576.49 | 0.13% | | 美元指数 | 99.2426 | 0.14% | | 人民币 | 7.0693 | -0.03% | | 纽约黄金 | 4,236.60 | 0.40 ...
我国将加快构建农业农村标准体系 为高质量发展打好“标准”底座
Ren Min Wang· 2025-12-10 02:21
人民网北京12月10日电 (记者李栋)记者从农业农村部近日召开的农业农村标准化工作推进会上了解 到,我国将加快构建适应高质量发展要求的农业农村标准体系,以标准升级引领农业农村高质量发展。 "农业农村'标准化'并非什么复杂的政策,核心就是用'规矩'护航农业农村发展,最终惠及每个人的餐 桌、钱包和生活环境。"业内人士说。 什么是农业农村"标准化"?业内人士解释:简单说,就是给农业生产、农村发展的各个环节定个"规 矩"。比如,种粮时,化肥、农药用量,要有明确标准;搞养殖时,饲料配比、兽药使用,要有统一要 求;农村里的厕所改造、污水治理、村容建设,也有标准可依。 标准是引领产业转型升级、推动高质量发展的重要基础性工作。农业农村部相关负责人表示,要推动标 准制定更加科学、标准体系更加完善、标准执行更加有效,为推进农业农村现代化、加快建设农业强国 提供有力支撑。 要因地制宜优化地方标准,上下协同健全农业农村标准体系。 要多措并举推动标准落地实施,坚持监督和服务并举,做好标准的解读、宣传、培训和推广,抓住新型 农业经营主体这个关键,辐射带动小农户提高标准化生产水平。 要提高标准国际化水平,深度参与国际标准制修订,提高我国在 ...
资讯早班车-2025-12-10-20251210
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-12-10 02:19
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 14 请务必阅读文末免责条款 资讯早班车-2025-12-10 一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20251020 | 2025/09 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 4.80 | 5.20 | 4.60 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.20 | 49.00 | 50.30 | | 20251130 | 2025/11 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 动 | % | 49.50 | 50.10 | 50.00 | | 20251114 | 2025/10 | 社会融资规模增量:当 | 亿元 | 8161.00 | 35299.00 | 14120.00 | | | | 月值 | | | | | | 20251113 | 2025/10 | M0(流通中的现金):同 比 | % | 10. ...