Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) against the US dollar (USD) is experiencing a downward trend, currently at 0.6469, with a decline of 0.23% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate surged to 4.5% in September, the highest in four years and exceeding the market expectation of 4.3%, increasing the likelihood of an interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia on November 4 [1] - The rise in unemployment has led to a decrease in the three-year government bond yield, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] Group 2 - Technically, the AUD/USD exchange rate has slightly recovered from a seven-week low of 0.6441, but the overall trend remains weak, with resistance levels at 0.6515 and 0.6523 [2] - A long-legged doji candlestick pattern has formed, providing a brief respite for bulls, yet the price remains constrained by the 10-day, 21-day, and 55-day moving averages [2] - The monthly relative strength index continues to show weakness, indicating that the overall downward pressure on the AUD is still in place, requiring a breakthrough of moving average resistance for upward movement [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - There is no information about the core views of the report in the provided content. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **10 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: On October 16, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond yields of major economies showed various values and changes. For example, the US was 4.034, with a one - week change of - 0.105, a one - month change of - 0.013, and a one - year change of 0.021. Japan was 3.503, with a one - week change of - 0.091, a one - month change of - 0.042, and a one - year change of - 0.456 [3]. - **2 - year Treasury Bond Yields**: Also on October 16, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury bond yields of some major economies were presented. The US was 3.480, with a one - week change of - 0.150, a one - month change of - 0.130, and a one - year change of - 0.180. Japan was 0.913, with a one - week change of - 0.012, a one - month change of 0.064, and a one - year change of 0.514 [3]. - **Dollar - to - Major Emerging Economies Currency Exchange Rates**: As of October 16, 2025, the dollar - to - major emerging economies currency exchange rates had different values and changes. For the Brazilian real, it was 5.521 on that day, with a one - week change of 2.82%, a one - month change of 2.07%, and a one - year change of - 0.24%. The on - shore RMB was 7.135, with a one - week change of 0.07%, a one - month change of 0.20%, and a one - year change of 1.02% [3]. - **Major Economies' Stock Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, major economies' stock indexes had their respective closing values and changes. The S&P 500 closed at 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 2.71%, a one - month change of 0.31%, and a one - year change of 13.93%. The Hang Seng Index closed at 26290.320, with a one - week change of - 1.73%, a one - month change of 0.34%, and a one - year change of 25.63% [3]. - **Credit Bond Indexes**: On October 16, 2025, the US investment - grade credit bond index was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.34%, a one - month change of 0.28%, and a one - year change of 5.19%. The emerging economies' high - yield credit bond index was 1746.620, with a one - week change of - 0.45%, a one - month change of - 0.08%, and a one - year change of 10.98% [3][4]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: The A - share closed at 3916.23 with a 0.10% increase. The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 closed at 4618.42 with a 0.26% increase [5]. - **Valuation**: The PE (TTM) of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 14.40 with a 0.09环比 change. The PE (TTM) of the S&P 500 was 27.26 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Risk Premium**: The risk premium of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (1/PE - 10 - year interest rate) was 3.70 with a 0.00环比 change. The risk premium of the S&P 500 was - 0.37 with a 0.00环比 change [5]. - **Fund Flow**: The latest value of A - share fund flow was - 1098.75, and the 5 - day average was - 803.28. The latest value of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fund flow was 70.26, and the 5 - day average was - 110.92 [5]. - **Trading Volume**: The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19311.38 with a - 1417.21环比 change. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 was 5605.67 with a - 467.59环比 change [5]. - **Main Contract Premium or Discount**: The basis of IF was - 28.42 with a - 0.62% amplitude. The basis of IH was - 0.20 with a - 0.01% amplitude [5]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 were 108.165, 105.705, 107.870, and 105.600 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes of - 0.04%, - 0.04%, - 0.05%, and - 0.03% [6]. - The domestic money market's R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M were 1.3531%, 1.4751%, and 1.5810% respectively, with daily changes of - 12.00BP, 1.00BP, and 0.00BP [6].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has fallen below the 0.6500 mark against the US dollar, currently at 0.6489, reflecting a decline of 0.30% [1] - Australia's unemployment rate rose to 4.5% in September, igniting expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) [1] - Employment data showed an increase of 14,900 jobs in September, which was below the market expectation of 20,000, while the previous month's job loss was revised to a decrease of 11,800 from 54,000 [1] Group 2 - RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter's cautious remarks provided some support for the AUD, noting that recent data was slightly better than expected and that third-quarter inflation might exceed forecasts [1] - The RBA's September monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that board members believe the current policy is still somewhat restrictive, but the extent is difficult to determine [1] - Economic risks remain, with weak employment and wage growth contributing to subdued consumer spending [1] Group 3 - Technical analysis indicates that the AUD/USD remains in a downward channel, with bearish sentiment persisting [2] - The potential downside target for the AUD/USD is around 0.6440, and a break below this support could lead to testing the four-month low of 0.6414 and the five-month low of 0.6372 [2] - On the upside, initial resistance is at the 9-day exponential moving average of 0.6527, followed by the 50-day moving average at 0.6551, with a breakthrough potentially improving short- and medium-term price momentum [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent appreciation of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar is attributed to both internal and external factors, indicating a potential long-term upward trend in the yuan's value [4][8][11]. Exchange Rate Performance - As of October 16, the yuan's central parity against the US dollar was set at 7.0968, an increase of 27 basis points from the previous day [1]. - The yuan has appreciated over 900 points against the dollar this year, with an onshore appreciation of 2.40% and an offshore appreciation exceeding 2.8% [3]. Economic Indicators - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) in China rose by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first increase in 19 months, reflecting the effectiveness of macroeconomic policies [3]. - The strong performance of the A-share market has attracted international capital back to Chinese assets, increasing demand for the yuan [4][8]. External Influences - The risk of economic recession in the US and the Federal Reserve's signals of potential interest rate cuts have pressured the US dollar, indirectly boosting the yuan's value [4][8]. - The Federal Reserve's recent data suggests little change in the US employment and inflation outlook, leading to a near 100% probability of a rate cut in October [3]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts suggest that the yuan may have entered a long-term appreciation cycle, driven by the Federal Reserve's easing monetary policy and a favorable domestic economic environment [9][10][11]. - The relative economic strength of China compared to the US is expected to support the yuan's value in the long run, despite potential fluctuations [11].

Core Insights - The overall international balance of payments in China has remained stable, with a reasonable current account surplus and active cross-border investment and financing [1][2][3] Group 1: International Balance of Payments - The maintenance of a balanced international payment is crucial for macroeconomic stability, especially in the context of complex external environments [2] - Since the beginning of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China's international balance of payments has remained fundamentally balanced, with foreign financial assets and liabilities steadily increasing [2][4] - As of now, China's foreign exchange reserves are maintained at over $3.2 trillion [2] Group 2: Cross-Border Trade and Investment - Cross-border trade has shown strong resilience, with the current account surplus remaining within a reasonable range [3] - From 2021 to 2024, the average annual scale of goods trade imports and exports is close to $6 trillion, representing a nearly 43% increase compared to the previous five years [3] - Foreign direct investment in China has netted over $740 billion from 2021 to mid-2025, while domestic entities' outbound investments have also increased [4] Group 3: Foreign Exchange Market Development - The resilience of the foreign exchange market has improved, enhancing the ability to withstand external shocks [5] - The proportion of enterprises using foreign exchange hedging has increased from 17% in 2020 to around 30% [5] - The trading volume of China's foreign exchange market reached $41 trillion in 2024, a 37.4% increase from 2020 [6][7] Group 4: Statistical Improvements - The transparency of international balance of payments statistics has been steadily improved, with expanded data dimensions and historical data availability [8][9] - A new statistical framework has been established to enhance the quality and comprehensiveness of data collection and reporting [9][10] - China has actively participated in the formulation of global statistical rules, contributing to international financial governance [10]

Group 1: Currency Market Insights - The US dollar typically does not gain during a government shutdown, but it has risen by 0.9% since the latest shutdown began, influenced by market expectations that the shutdown may last weeks rather than months [1] - The USD/JPY exchange rate increased by 3% this week due to the results of the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party elections, which may delay the Bank of Japan's interest rate hikes [1] - Political uncertainty in Europe, particularly following the resignation of French Prime Minister Le Maire, has contributed to the decline of the euro, further supporting the dollar [3] Group 2: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have benefited from increased political uncertainty in Europe, Japan, and the US, with current trading prices around $4000 [3] - The relationship between gold and the dollar has been negative historically, but both assets have risen simultaneously this week due to market dynamics [3] - Key support levels for gold are at $3954, $3925, and $3874, while resistance is around $4005, indicating potential short-term risks if profit-taking occurs near $4000 [3] Group 3: Oil Market Overview - OPEC+ is set to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in November, which is limiting the decline in crude oil prices [4] - US crude oil prices have remained in the lower half of the $60-$66 range since June, with moderate support at $60.92 and stronger support at $60.20 [4] - The upper resistance level for crude oil is at $62.75, indicating a potential price ceiling in the near term [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - The market is closely watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes for clues on the Fed's potential dovish stance in the coming months [6] - The ongoing government shutdown has created uncertainty regarding the release of key US economic data, including the delayed Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data [6] - Comments from Fed officials will be critical for investors to assess the likelihood of one or two interest rate cuts by the end of the year [6]

Group 1 - The U.S. government is considering terminating some trade relations with China, including those related to edible oils, as stated by President Trump [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Powell hinted at a potential 25 basis point rate cut later this month, despite the government shutdown affecting the Fed's economic assessment [2] - The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield fell by 3 basis points to 4.029%, while the real yield dropped nearly 3.5 basis points to 1.728%, which is favorable for gold prices [2] Group 2 - FPG analyst Felix believes that gold prices are likely to rise above the $4100 per ounce mark, driven by dovish comments from Powell and increased safe-haven buying due to U.S.-China trade tensions [3] - Technical indicators show that gold remains in a strong upward trend, with the 20-day simple moving average currently at $3863.90 per ounce [3] - Analyst Chad indicates that gold has room for further increases, with support levels at $4123.20, $4090.00, and $4078.10 per ounce, and resistance at $4200.00 per ounce [4] Group 3 - Current market indicators for gold show a bearish daily direction, with resistance levels at 4186, 4200, and 4210, and support levels at 4170, 4161, and 4149 [5] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative reference value greater than 67.1% [5] - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows a bearish daily direction, with resistance at 1.1628, 1.1657, and 1.1714, and support at 1.1603, 1.1577, and 1.1554 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The Euro is facing downward pressure due to political uncertainty in France and a dovish shift in European Central Bank interest rate expectations [1][2] Group 1: Currency Movements - The Euro to USD exchange rate is currently at 1.1572, with a slight increase of 0.01% [1] - The Euro to GBP exchange rate is under pressure, testing the support level of 0.8675, influenced by ongoing political uncertainty in France [1] - The Euro has significantly retraced from a peak of 0.8724 last Friday, indicating a notable decline [1] Group 2: Political Factors - President Macron's refusal to resign amid a new government facing a vote of no confidence is exacerbating market concerns [1] - The political deadlock in France is contributing to the downward pressure on the Euro [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy Expectations - The European Central Bank's shift towards a dovish stance is adding to the pressure on the Euro [1] - There are expectations that the Bank of England may further cut interest rates, with concerns that UK inflation may decline slower than anticipated [1] Group 4: Technical Analysis - Technical indicators for the Euro show significant downward pressure, with the Bollinger Bands expanding and moving averages trending downwards [2] - Initial resistance levels are identified at 1.1630 and 1.1731, while support levels are at 1.1528 and 1.1504 [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report presents a comprehensive overview of the global asset market performance on October 13, 2025, including data on government bond yields, exchange rates, stock indices, and futures trading across major economies [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Asset Market Performance - **Government Bond Yields**: 10 - year and 2 - year government bond yields of major economies are presented, with details on latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly changes. For example, the 10 - year US Treasury yield on October 13, 2025, was 4.034%, with a one - week change of - 0.142 and a one - year change of 0.282 [2]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar's exchange rates against major emerging economies' currencies are shown, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate on October 13, 2025, was 5.521, with a one - week change of 3.31% [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Closing prices and percentage changes (latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly) of major economies' stock indices are provided. The S&P 500 index on October 13, 2025, was 6552.510, with a one - week change of - 1.37% and a one - year change of 14.19% [2]. - **Credit Bond Indices**: Data on investment - grade and high - yield credit bond indices of the US, eurozone, and emerging economies are given, including latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly percentage changes. The US investment - grade credit bond index on October 13, 2025, was 3529.690, with a one - week change of 0.67% [2]. Stock Index Futures Trading Data - **Index Performance**: Closing prices and percentage changes of A - shares, CSI 300, SSE 50, ChiNext, and CSI 500 are presented. The A - share closing price was 3889.50, with a change of - 0.19% [3]. - **Valuation**: PE (TTM) and its环比变化 (comparative change) of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, S&P 500, and German DAX are shown. The PE (TTM) of CSI 300 was 14.19, with a环比变化 of - 0.06 [3]. - **Risk Premium**: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate and its环比变化 of several indices are provided. The 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of CSI 300 was 3.70, with a环比变化 of 0.00 [3]. - **Fund Flows**: Latest values and 5 - day average values of fund flows in A - shares, main board, small and medium - sized enterprise board, ChiNext, and CSI 300 are given. The latest fund flow in A - shares was 278.56, and the 5 - day average was - 118.93 [3]. - **Trading Volume**: Latest trading volumes and环比变化 of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, SSE 50, small and medium - sized board, and ChiNext are presented. The latest trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 23547.41, with a环比变化 of - 1608.73 [3]. - **Main Contract Premium/Discount**: Basis and percentage of IF, IH, and IC are provided. The basis of IF was - 31.38, with a percentage of - 0.68% [3]. Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and percentage changes of T00, TF00, T01, and TF01 are presented, all with 0.00% change. The closing price of T00 was 108.065 [4]. - **Funding Rates**: R001, R007, and SHIBOR - 3M are shown, along with their daily changes in basis points. The R001 was 1.3570%, with a daily change of - 13.00 BP [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current tariff upgrade is likely to follow the pattern of April 2025, with smaller market fluctuations. Trump's subsequent remarks have shown signs of moderation, and the market may have a strong learning effect from the previous negotiation model. As a result, market volatility may be lower and the recovery may be faster in this round of trade frictions. In the short term, it strengthens the long - end bullish momentum of US Treasuries [3][17]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of Market Feedback Patterns in Previous Trade Frictions - **2018.03 - 2018.06: Gradual Recognition Stage at the Beginning of Trade Frictions** - In March 2018, the US announced steel and aluminum tariffs and planned to impose tariffs on $60 billion worth of Chinese goods. Initially, the scope was relatively narrow, and the impact on the global market was not significant. - Over the next three months, as the market recognized the threat of trade frictions, the Chinese equity market was under pressure, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling about 11.45% cumulatively. The bond market strengthened due to risk - aversion sentiment, and the yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds declined by about 19bp, showing a "strong bonds, weak stocks" pattern [1][9]. - **2019.05 - 2019.12: Global Resonance Stage with Re - emergence of Conflicts** - In May 2019, Sino - US negotiations broke down, and trade conflicts escalated again after a brief cease - fire. - Against the backdrop of high trade environment uncertainty and the global manufacturing PMI entering the bottom cycle, most global markets were in a "strong bonds, weak stocks" seesaw pattern in the second half of 2019. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped from 2.45% to around 1.74% within three months [1][12]. - **2025.04: Amplification and Rapid Recovery of Impact from "Reciprocal Tariffs"** - On April 2, 2025, Trump announced the "reciprocal tariff" policy, imposing a "reciprocal tariff" starting at 10% on all countries. This tariff had an unexpected magnitude and also targeted non - Chinese countries, causing a global impact. - The market reacted quickly. Within five days, major global stock indices fell between 5 - 15%. Funds flocked to "safe - haven" bonds. The yield of 10 - year Japanese Treasury bonds declined by about 32bp within five days, and safe - haven currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc strengthened. - After several rounds of negotiations, the stock market rebounded significantly, and the market gradually alleviated concerns about tariffs. The trading sentiment became relatively insensitive to marginal changes in tariff policies, reaching a consensus of "high - opening and low - running tariffs." The main stock indices basically recovered to pre - tariff levels, while the bond market showed differentiated performance due to factors such as fundamentals, inflation expectations, and political situations [2][14]. 2. This Week's Overseas Macroeconomic Interest Rate Review 2.1 Macroeconomic Indicator Comments - As of the week ending October 3, driven by rising production and increased imports, US EIA crude oil inventories continued to rise after the previous week's rebound. The change in US EIA crude oil inventories for the week was 3.715 million barrels, higher than the forecast of 2.25 million barrels and the previous value of 1.792 million barrels. Despite the larger - than - expected increase in inventories, concerns about Russian crude oil supply disruptions and the recovery of US demand boosted market sentiment to some extent, causing oil prices to rise slightly one hour after the data release [18]. 2.2 Review of Main Overseas Market Interest Rates - **US**: Trade frictions may intensify, and US Treasury yields are falling rapidly. This week (October 3 - October 10, 2025), US Treasury yields declined. Trump's tariff threat on Friday led to pressure on the US stock market, with the Nasdaq Index dropping 3.56% in a single day, the largest decline since April. The yield of 10 - year US Treasuries dropped 9bp in a single day, and COMEX gold rose 1.58% to $4035.5 per ounce. As the government shutdown may continue and trade frictions may re - emerge, funds are expected to further flow into the bond market. The recent unexpected increase in short - term debt issuance may imply a reduction in long - term debt issuance in November, which is beneficial for lowering long - end market interest rates [19]. - **Auction Results**: The 3 - year US note auction was neutral to robust, the 10 - year US note auction was weak, and the 30 - year US Treasury auction was relatively robust [22]. - **Europe and Japan**: - **Japan**: Under the expectation of "pro - stimulus" policies, the yield of long - term Japanese bonds is approaching a 17 - year high. The yield of 10 - year Japanese bonds is stable at around 1.70%, close to the highest level since 2008. However, the breakdown of the Japanese ruling coalition on Friday makes the future policy direction uncertain [30]. - **Germany**: German bond yields declined overall this week [30]. 3. Comments on Other Major Asset Classes - **Equity**: Vietnam and Japan reached new highs, while European and American markets generally weakened. Vietnam's VN30 had the strongest performance (+6.51%), followed by Japan's Nikkei 225 (+5.07%). European, American, and Hong Kong markets generally declined. The political turmoil in Paris led to a significant decline in the French stock market, and Trump's threat against China pressured the US stock market [31]. - **Commodities**: Safe - haven precious metals and base metals were strong, while energy, agricultural products were weak, and crypto - assets tumbled. Gold and silver prices rose significantly, driven by risk - aversion demand and a weaker US dollar. Base metals and energy raw materials also generally strengthened. In contrast, Brent crude oil, agricultural products, and Bitcoin declined [32]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The Russian ruble led the gains, and the Japanese yen led the losses. The ruble rose 1.73%, while the yen fell 3.63% due to easing expectations [33]. 4. Market Tracking The report provides data on the changes in bond yields, stock index returns, commodity price changes, and foreign exchange rate fluctuations of major global economies this week, as well as the latest economic data panels of the US, Japan, and the Eurozone [39][48][55][59].