与此同时，除澳元、新西兰元等澳大拉西亚货币外，加元相对其他主要货币均表现强势，核心原因在于加拿大央行短期内降息的可能性极低。在周三发布的 货币政策声明中，加拿大央行重申，"只要经济和通胀走势符合预期，当前利率水平足以将通胀维持在2%的目标附近"。 IC外汇平台美元兑加元技术面分析 美元兑加元（USD/CAD）已连续第四个交易日下跌。受美元持续走弱影响，该货币对进一步下探至1.3750附近。美联储在周三释放信号，称计划到2026年 将联邦基金利率降至3.4%；而加拿大央行（BoC）本周则表示，短期内应维持当前利率水平。 周五，美元兑加元延续四连跌走势。欧洲交易时段，该货币对下跌0.1%，交投于1.3750附近。周三美联储公布货币政策决议后，美元表现疲软，直接对美元 兑加元形成压制。 截至发稿，追踪美元兑六种主要货币汇率的美元指数（DXY）仍处于脆弱区间，徘徊在周四创下的七周低点98.13附近。 市场预期美联储2026年的降息次数将超过最新点阵图显示的水平，这一预期推动美元全面走软。CME美联储观察工具（CMEFedWatchTool）数据显示，截 至2026年10月，美联储至少降息两次的概率已达58%。与之形成 ...

Core Viewpoint - GBP/JPY is experiencing fluctuations influenced by upcoming UK economic data and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting, with a focus on the divergence in policy expectations between the UK and Japan [1] Economic Data Impact - The sensitivity to UK economic data has increased significantly, with recent figures showing a mere 0.1% quarter-on-quarter GDP growth for Q3 2025, down from 0.3% in Q2, highlighting a weak recovery [1] - Upcoming monthly GDP and industrial production data will further reveal recovery momentum, with potential underperformance likely to strengthen rate cut bets for the Bank of England, putting pressure on the GBP [1] Monetary Policy Divergence - The core driving force for GBP/JPY remains the depreciation pressure on the yen, exacerbated by Japan's Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's 21.3 trillion yen stimulus plan, raising concerns over fiscal stability [1] - The global risk appetite remains high, suppressing the yen and providing support for GBP/JPY, despite the anticipated interest rate hike from the Bank of Japan [1] Market Expectations - The market widely expects the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates at the December 18-19 meeting, with probabilities nearing 80%, potentially increasing the policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75% [1] - This contrasts sharply with the Bank of England's 82% probability of a rate cut in December, which, while supporting GBP/JPY, significantly limits its upward momentum [1] Technical Analysis - Technically, GBP/JPY is in a strong oscillating pattern, with effective support in the 196-198 range and a well-maintained upward channel for the month [2] - A solid breakthrough above the 199.00 level could signal a move towards the 200.00 resistance, while a drop below the 197.00 support may trigger deeper corrections towards 196.00 and 195.50 [2]

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 98.341, while spot gold opened at $4277.76 per ounce and is currently trading at approximately $4216.29 per ounce. Gold T+D is trading around 963.50 CNY per gram, and the Shanghai gold main contract is at 968.84 CNY per gram [1] Price Movements - The previous trading day saw the US dollar index decrease by 0.29% to 98.357, while spot gold increased by 1.22% to $4205.38 per ounce. Other precious metals showed mixed results: spot silver rose by 2.84% to $63.54 per ounce, platinum increased by 2.30% to $1693.40 per ounce, and palladium gained 1.08% to $1492.50 per ounce [1] Inventory Data - As of December 11, COMEX gold inventory stands at 1123.32 tons, an increase of 0.18 tons from the previous trading day. COMEX silver inventory is at 14177.51 tons, a decrease of 18.65 tons [2] ETF Holdings - SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased to 1050.83 tons, up by 4.01 tons from the previous day. SLV silver ETF holdings remained unchanged at 16083.16 tons [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in currency exchange rates, particularly focusing on the performance of the US dollar against various currencies, highlighting both gains and losses in different pairs [1]. Group 1: Currency Performance - The US dollar against the Japanese yen decreased by 0.25%, closing at 155.63 yen, before slightly rising to a high of 156.16 yen and then dropping to a low of 154.95 yen [1]. - The euro appreciated by 0.39% against the US dollar, while the British pound saw a marginal increase of 0.03% [1]. - The US dollar declined by 0.63% against the Swiss franc, indicating a notable shift in this currency pair [1]. Group 2: Commodity Currencies - Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar fell by 0.20% against the US dollar, and the New Zealand dollar decreased by 0.17% [1]. - The Canadian dollar also experienced a slight decline of 0.10% against the US dollar [1]. Group 3: Scandinavian and Eastern European Currencies - The Swedish krona rose by 0.12% against the US dollar, while the Norwegian krona increased by 0.13% [1]. - The Danish krone appreciated by 0.38% against the US dollar, and the Polish zloty gained 0.37% [1]. - The Hungarian forint saw an increase of 0.28% against the US dollar, reflecting positive movement in these currencies [1].

Group 1 - The USD/INR exchange rate is approaching the 90.00 mark, indicating a strengthening of the Indian Rupee, influenced by the upcoming visit of U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Rick Swett to India on December 10-11 to discuss trade issues [1][3] - A key focus for India in the trade talks is to push the U.S. to lower existing tax rates on certain Indian exports, which currently face rates as high as 50%, relatively high among major U.S. trading partners [3] - Foreign institutional investors have shown a declining interest in the Indian market, with a cumulative net sell-off of ₹14,819.29 million since the beginning of December, marking five consecutive months of capital outflow [3] Group 2 - Upcoming economic data, particularly the November Consumer Price Index (CPI) set to be released, is under scrutiny, with expectations of an increase in retail inflation to 0.7% from 0.25% in October, serving as a reference for the domestic economic situation [3] - Market sentiment is cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision, with investors closely watching for indications of future interest rate paths, contributing to the further appreciation of the Indian Rupee against the USD [3][4] - The U.S. Dollar Index has slightly declined, hovering around 99.20, with market expectations leaning towards a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, marking a potential third consecutive cut [4] Group 3 - The USD/INR exchange rate is trading around 90.00, maintaining above the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of 89.6463, indicating a solid trend structure [6] - The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 62, having retreated from previous highs, suggesting strong momentum but a potential easing [6] - Sustaining above the 20-day EMA is crucial for maintaining the current trend, while a close below this level could trigger further adjustments, with market attention shifting to previous highs around 88.97 [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE Dollar Index experienced fluctuations, initially dropping to a low of 98.954 points before rising sharply after the release of favorable job vacancy data from the Federal Reserve, reaching a high of 99.312 points [1]. Group 1 - The ICE Dollar Index increased by 0.13% to close at 99.217 points [1]. - The Bloomberg Dollar Index rose by 0.03%, with a trading range of 1212.64 to 1215.70 points during the day [1]. - The significant movement in the dollar index occurred after the release of job vacancy data, indicating a positive market reaction [1].

12月9日，黄金在全球金融监管体系中的地位发生根本性变化。随着今年早些时候巴塞尔III"终局"规则 全面落地，黄金从投机资产转化为一类核心货币属性资产，为长期上涨至每盎司1万美元打开可能性。 CWG Markets外汇表示，在新的监管体系下，实物黄金被重新归类为一级高质量流动性资产，可按 100%市值计入流动性并享受0%风险权重，使其在银行资产负债管理中的地位与现金、主权债券等同。 CWG Markets外汇认为，黄金正重新定价全球主权债务泡沫的尾声，这一变化也对应着全球货币体系未 来可能的重置周期。 与此同时，国际清算银行近期警告黄金与股市同步进入"爆炸区间"，黄金自9月以来涨幅接近20%。 CWG Markets外汇认为，这种同步飙升反映了市场对法币体系的深层忧虑，也支撑了部分分析者提出的 长期技术性目标——黄金可能迈向1万美元。推动黄金结构性需求的不仅是市场资金，也包括多个主要 经济体的央行储备再配置行为。部分大型出口国数据亦显示全球贸易格局正在发生位移，顺差扩大叠加 内部经济结构压力，促使其对黄金展现持续、高强度的配置需求。CWG Markets外汇表示，机构资金的 这一长期布局方向，使黄金在未来波动 ...

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies are as follows: US 4.165%, UK 4.527%, France 3.582%, Germany 2.861%, Italy 3.561%, Spain 3.332%, Switzerland 0.230%, Greece 3.464%, Japan 1.968%, Brazil 6.220%, China 1.833%, South Korea (not available), Australia 4.705%, New Zealand 4.437% [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies are: US 3.576%, UK 3.806%, Germany 2.156%, Japan 1.059%, Italy 2.297%, China (1Y yield) 1.401%, South Korea (not available), Australia 3.971% [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies are: Brazil 5.432, Russia (not available), South Africa zar 17.042, Korean won 1469.400, Thai baht 31.850, Malaysian ringgit 4.113. The on - shore RMB is 7.072, the off - shore RMB is 7.072, the RMB central parity is 7.076, and the RMB 12 - month NDF is 6.936 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices are: S&P 500 6846.510, Dow Jones Industrial Index 47739.320, Nasdaq 23545.900, Mexican stock index 63528.000, UK stock index 9645.090, France CAC 8108.430, Germany DAX 24046.010, Spanish stock index 16712.200, Russian stock index (not available), Nikkei 50581.940, Hang Seng Index 25765.360, Shanghai Composite Index 3924.078, Taiwan stock index 28303.780, South Korean stock index 4154.850, Indian stock index 8710.695, Thai stock index 1261.390, Malaysian stock index 1612.780, Australian economy index 8914.962, emerging - economy stock index 1386.620 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices are: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3532.090, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.008, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.370, US high - yield credit - bond index 2898.070, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.350, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1803.856 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - For A - share index performance, the closing prices are: A - shares 3924.08, CSI 300 4621.75, SSE 50 3019.36, ChiNext 3190.27, CSI 500 7172.37. The percentage changes are: A - shares 0.54%, CSI 300 0.81%, SSE 50 0.58%, ChiNext 2.60%, CSI 500 1.05% [4] - In terms of valuation, the PE(TTM) values are: CSI 300 14.08, SSE 50 11.89, CSI 500 32.67, S&P 500 27.21, Germany DAX 18.63. The环比 changes are: CSI 300 0.06, SSE 50 0.03, CSI 500 0.32, S&P 500 - 0.12, Germany DAX 0.02 [4] - Regarding risk premium, 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate values are: S&P 500 - 0.49, Germany DAX 2.51. The环比 changes are: S&P 500 - 0.01, Germany DAX - 0.07 [4] - For fund flows, the latest values are: A - shares - 31.13, main board - 259.96, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext 139.88, CSI 300 33.95. The 5 - day average values are: A - shares - 360.23, main board - 326.76, small - and - medium - sized enterprise board (not available), ChiNext - 38.69, CSI 300 - 4.65 [4] - The latest trading volumes are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 20366.46, CSI 300 4967.16, SSE 50 1252.39, small - and - medium - sized board 3786.43, ChiNext 5818.21. The环比 changes are: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets 3108.75, CSI 300 845.69, SSE 50 147.92, small - and - medium - sized board 516.77, ChiNext 1100.81 [5] - The主力升贴水 data shows: IF basis - 8.55, amplitude - 0.19%; IH basis - 4.36, amplitude - 0.14%; IC basis - 28.37, amplitude - 0.40% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of treasury bond futures are: T2303 108.11, TF2303 105.73, T2306 107.91, TF2306 105.75. The percentage changes are: T2303 0.05%, TF2303 0.01%, T2306 0.04%, TF2306 - 0.01% [5] - The money market shows: R001 1.3718%, R007 1.4940%, SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800%. The daily changes (BP) are: R001 - 13.00, R007 - 1.00, SHIBOR - 3M 0.00 [5]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's macroeconomic research head, Rob Subbaraman, anticipates a 2.4% growth in the US economy next year, driven by increased AI investment and a more accommodative economic environment, while core inflation remains close to 3% [1] Economic Outlook - The US is expected to reduce interest rates by 25 basis points this year, with no cuts anticipated from January to May next year, followed by two cuts in June and September [1] - Concerns are raised regarding the lack of significant fiscal consolidation in the US, with expectations of increased government spending on defense, aging society, climate change-related disasters, and interest payments, leading to greater fiscal pressure [1] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The increased fiscal pressure may compel the US government to push the Federal Reserve for more rate cuts or to encourage financial institutions to purchase more government bonds, potentially resulting in higher inflation in the long term [1] Market Predictions - Nomura predicts that Asian stock markets will perform better in 2026, attracting more capital inflows, and highlights Asia as a manufacturer of AI phenomena [1] - The global head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura, Chen Liwei, forecasts that the US dollar will remain stable in the first quarter of next year, but the dollar index (DXY) is expected to depreciate by approximately 5% over the year, with downward pressure still present in the first quarter [1]

Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.136, UK 4.476, France 3.523, Germany 2.797, Italy 3.484, Spain 3.259, Switzerland 0.157, Greece 3.391, Japan 1.939, Brazil 6.197, China 1.831, South Korea 3.376, Australia 4.684, New Zealand 4.349 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.561, UK 3.776, Germany 2.093, Japan 1.043, Italy 2.228, China (1Y yield) 1.400, South Korea 2.833, Australia 3.946 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.451, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.934, South Korean won 1472.050, Thailand baht (not provided), Malaysian ringgit 4.111 [3] - The latest exchange rate - related data of the RMB: on - shore RMB 7.071, off - shore RMB 7.069, RMB central parity rate 7.075, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.934 [3] - The latest stock indices of major economies: S&P 500 6870.400, Dow Jones Industrial Average 47954.990, Nasdaq 23578.130, Mexican stock index 63378.300, UK stock index 9667.010, French CAC 8114.740, German DAX 24028.140, Spanish stock index 16688.500, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 50491.870, Hang Seng Index 26085.080, Shanghai Composite Index 3902.808, Taiwan stock index 27980.890, South Korean stock index 4100.050, Indian stock index 8632.761, Thai stock index (not provided), Malaysian stock index 1616.520, Australian stock index 8926.127, emerging - economy stock index 1385.480 [3] - The latest credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3535.540, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 265.875, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 289.560, US high - yield credit - bond index 2901.450, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 409.330, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1806.999 [3] Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 3902.81, up 0.70%; CSI 300 closing price 4584.54, up 0.84%; SSE 50 closing price 3002.01, up 0.93%; ChiNext closing price 3109.30, up 1.36%; CSI 500 closing price 7097.84, up 1.21% [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 is 14.02 with a 0.06环比 change; SSE 50 is 11.86 with a 0.04环比 change; CSI 500 is 32.35 with a 0.41环比 change; S&P 500 is 27.33 with a 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 18.61 with a 0.11环比 change [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 is - 0.48 with a - 0.05环比 change; German DAX is 2.58 with a - 0.05环比 change [4] - Fund flow: The latest value of A - share fund flow is 759.67, the main board is 443.70, the ChiNext is 260.14, and CSI 300 is 197.37. The 5 - day average of A - share fund flow is - 395.38, the main board is - 294.49, the ChiNext is - 74.98, and CSI 300 is 17.56 [4] - Transaction amount: The latest transaction amount of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 17257.71 with a 1768.11环比 change; CSI 300 is 4121.47 with a 633.80环比 change; SSE 50 is 1104.47 with a 218.25环比 change; small - and - medium - sized board is 3269.66 with a 132.41环比 change; ChiNext is 4717.40 with a 600.12环比 change [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis is - 10.14, amplitude - 0.22%; IH basis is - 4.61, amplitude - 0.15%; IC basis is - 14.64, amplitude - 0.21% [5] Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Closing prices and price changes: T2303 closing price is 108.06, up 0.06%; TF2303 closing price is 105.72, up 0.10%; T2306 closing price is 107.87, up 0.19%; TF2306 closing price is 105.76, up 0.15% [5] - Fund interest rates: R001 is 1.3719% with a - 12.00 BP daily change; R007 is 1.4963% with a 1.00 BP daily change; SHIBOR - 3M is 1.5800% with a 0.00 BP daily change [5]