Tabl e_Title 2025 年 6 月 16 日 大类资产运行周报（20250609-20250613） 地缘冲突升温 国际油价短期攀升 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 0.60% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | -0.35% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.81% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.78% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.90% | | 美元指数 | 分析师 -1.07% | | SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 2.99% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | 4.86% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（202 ...

策略研究 / 2025.06.16 褪色的霸权:美元走弱下的资产配置启示 -- 1970年以来七轮美元趋势走弱下的资产行情复盘 登记编与 本报告导读: 货币政策错位叠加美元外循环受阻,美元贬值可能性正在增大。本文回顾了 1970年 以来历次美元走弱下的资产行情,建议关注汇市、商品以及非美权益投资机会。 投资要点: 1970年以来,美元指数七轮大幅贬值回顾。1)1971.01-1973.07:布 雷顿森林体系解体引发美元信用危机,大宗商品最为受益,权益资 产表现亚洲优于欧洲;2)1976.06-1980.01:联储决策失误引发恶性 通胀,市场担忧美国滞涨风险与联储能力,高通胀环境下大宗商品 表现最优:3)1985.02-1987.12:广场协议下的美元主动贬值,全球 经济共振复苏,工业金属优于贵金属,日本股市领跑全球;4) 1989.06-1992.09:美国经济衰退叠加两德合并,美外利差收窄致使 美元走弱,衰退与高利率环境下商品与权益表现较为平淡;5) 1994.02-1995.04:联储意外加息压制经济预期,非美经济体强劲复 策略去 苏削弱美元优势,商品表现更优;6)2002.01-2008.04:美国"双 ...

Market Overview - Recent market activity has been characterized by significant volatility, particularly in gold, which experienced a price swing of over $100 in one day. This was preceded by a sharp decline of over $30 during the afternoon session, likely triggered by profit-taking from institutional positions near previous highs [1] - The subsequent rise in gold prices was largely driven by geopolitical tensions, specifically an Israeli attack on Iran, which spurred safe-haven buying. This was reflected in a simultaneous 7% increase in oil prices, indicating a strong correlation between geopolitical events and market movements [1] Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming week is expected to feature major economic announcements, including the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and the OPEC monthly report, which are critical for market participants [3][4] - The OPEC monthly report will provide insights into member countries' oil production, inventory, and export dynamics, serving as a key indicator for traders assessing future supply-demand balances in the oil market [4] Key Economic Indicators - On Tuesday, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision will be closely monitored, as the central bank's stance on its ultra-loose monetary policy could significantly impact the yen and broader market sentiment [6] - The U.S. retail sales data, known as "the terror data," will be released on the same day, directly reflecting consumer spending strength, which is a crucial component of GDP. Stronger-than-expected results could bolster the dollar and suppress gold prices, while weaker results may heighten market concerns about economic prospects [7] Oil Market Dynamics - On Wednesday, the EIA will release its weekly oil inventory report, which will provide a clear picture of supply-demand dynamics in the U.S. energy market. A significant drop in inventory levels typically indicates rising demand or constrained supply, which is bullish for oil prices [8] - Current market focus is on Middle Eastern geopolitical developments, U.S. shale oil recovery, and the pace of global demand recovery, all of which could influence OPEC's outlook for oil prices in the second half of the year [5] Federal Reserve and Bank of England Decisions - Thursday will feature the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is anticipated to be a major market event. The accompanying dot plot and economic projections will be critical for understanding the Fed's future policy direction [10] - The Bank of England will also announce its interest rate decision on the same day, with potential for significant volatility in the pound if unexpected policy shifts occur [12] Trading Considerations - Traders are advised to be cautious during the upcoming week due to the anticipated volatility from major economic data releases. Proper position sizing and risk management strategies are essential to navigate the expected market fluctuations [17]

Group 1 - The yield on India's 10-year government bonds increased by 3 basis points to 6.37% [1] - The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.7% against the US Dollar [1] - The rise in oil prices is cited as a contributing factor to these financial movements [1]

2025年6月13日银行间外汇市场人民币汇率中间价 美元/人民币报7.1772，下调（人民币升值）31点； 欧元/人民币报8.3083，上调505点； 港元/人民币报0.91444，下调3.7点； 英镑/人民币报9.7619，上调283点； 澳元/人民币报4.6780，上调105点； 加元/人民币报5.2715，上调218点； 100日元/人民币报5.0028，上调265点； 人民币/俄罗斯卢布报11.1440，上调823点； 新西兰元/人民币报4.3441，上调165点； 人民币/林吉特报0.5887，下调6.5点； 瑞士法郎/人民币报8.8560，上调920点； 新加坡元/人民币报5.6090，上调195点。 ...

新华财经北京6月12日电欧洲交易时段盘初，美元指数触及2022年4月以来的最低水平。外汇交易员在对美元持看跌观点时，可利用外汇 期权对冲美元反弹风险。 近期美元走弱背景下，美元看跌期权需求强劲，其价格高于美元看涨期权，尤其在欧元兑美元风险逆转期权中，美元看跌期权溢价在5月 达到5年高位，且在后续美元下跌时仍吸引大量需求。 目前支持美元的两大因素是：一是美元与利率差异已极度背离，若无短期美债利率进一步下降，美元难以继续下跌，而当日美国PPI或初 请失业金数据能否推动利率下降尚不确定；二是地缘政治紧张局势，油价本周上涨。美元可能因流动性优势受青睐，日元和瑞郎也会受 追捧。 瑞郎因市场风险规避情绪而上涨，美元则因"卖空美国"交易回归而承压。 整体来看，美元兑瑞郎在所有时间段内的变动幅度最大，特别是在1周时间段达到-1.12%，欧元兑美元和美元兑南非兰特的长期（1天和1 周）变动也较为显著，美元指数在所有时间段内的变动都相对平稳。 荷兰国际集团分析师表示，英国经济在第二季度初收缩幅度大于预期，4月份的收缩率为0.3%；基于当前的数据，预计今年剩余时间里 英国的经济增长将更加疲软；本周公布的疲软就业数据进一步加深了对未 ...

研究中心宏观团队 2025/06/12 | | 全 球 资 产 市 场 表 现 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主要经济体10年期国债收益率 | | | | | | | | | | | 美国 | 英国 | 法国 | 德国 | 意大利 | 西班牙 | 瑞士 | 希腊 | | 2025/06/11 | 4.422 | 4.551 | 3.225 | 2.534 | 3.445 | 3.117 | 0.264 | 3.243 | | 最新变化 | -0.050 | 0.010 | 0.023 | 0.012 | 0.010 | 0.020 | -0.003 | 0.030 | | 一周变化 | 0.066 | -0.054 | 0.021 | 0.008 | -0.046 | 0.001 | 0.053 | -0.008 | | 一月变化 | -0.045 | -0.118 | -0.128 | -0.144 | -0.252 | -0.180 | -0.099 | -0.205 | | 一年变化 | ...

Core Insights - MHmarkets is recognized for its international regulatory advantages, ensuring a robust and reliable forex trading platform [1][3] - The platform has received certifications from multiple international financial regulatory bodies, enhancing its compliance and transparency [4][6] - It offers efficient execution speed and intelligent trading tools, improving trading convenience and success rates [4][7] - Customer service is available in multiple languages and provides 24/7 online support, optimizing the overall customer experience [4][9] Regulatory Compliance - The platform is certified by several authoritative regulatory bodies, including the UK's FCA, the US CFTC, and Australia's ASIC, which boosts user trust and platform reputation [6] - Strict regulatory measures ensure compliance and user trust, protecting user funds and enhancing platform transparency [5][6] Trading Technology - High execution speed is a key feature, allowing users to respond quickly in volatile markets, thus increasing trading success rates [7] - Intelligent trading tools assist users in making quicker decisions and analyzing market trends, enhancing overall trading efficiency [7][8] - Multi-platform compatibility allows seamless trading across devices, ensuring a consistent user experience [9] Customer Service - The platform's customer support responsiveness significantly impacts user trust and satisfaction, with quick replies to inquiries [9][10] - Multi-language support facilitates communication with users from diverse backgrounds, enhancing the overall service experience [9][10] - The problem resolution rate is a critical indicator of customer service quality, with a focus on timely and effective solutions [10] Security Measures - Strict fund segregation practices ensure user funds are protected, stored in independent regulated bank accounts [10][11] - Advanced security measures, including encryption technology and two-factor authentication, safeguard user information [10][11] - An anti-fraud monitoring system provides real-time detection of suspicious activities, enhancing user confidence [11][12] User Data Protection - Data encryption technology ensures the security of personal information during transmission, increasing user trust [12][13] - The platform's transparent privacy policy outlines data usage and protection measures, fostering user confidence [13] - Effective user data management practices provide a secure environment for storing registration information and transaction records [13] User Experience - The platform offers a user-friendly interface that reduces learning costs for new traders, allowing them to focus on trading [14] - A variety of trading tools and resources are available, catering to different market conditions and enhancing user confidence [14][15] - The availability of educational resources, such as online tutorials and webinars, supports users in understanding forex trading concepts [14][15]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1221.420, showing an increase of 5.890 or 0.48% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1065.840, reflecting a decrease of 2.970 or 0.28% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3368.700, up by 22.000 or 0.66% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.800, down by 0.105 or 0.28% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.144, increasing by 0.22% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.353, decreasing by 0.17% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 144.513, down by 0.06% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.653, up by 0.18% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.821, down by 0.08% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin (BTC) is priced at 109015.700, down by 1247.320 or 1.13% [4] - Litecoin (LTC) is at 90.880, increasing by 0.150 or 0.17% [4] - Ethereum (ETH) is priced at 2720.590, up by 40.450 or 1.51% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is at 2.286, down by 0.035 or 1.51% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is 3.987, down by 0.016 or 0.40% [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is 4.054, decreasing by 0.033 or 0.81% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is 4.446, down by 0.037 or 0.83% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is 4.911, decreasing by 0.043 or 0.87% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is 4.535, down by 0.098 or 2.12% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is 2.519, decreasing by 0.051 or 1.98% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is 3.198, down by 0.043 or 1.33% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond is 3.448, decreasing by 0.043 or 1.23% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is 1.483, up by 0.020 or 1.37% [7]

周一亚洲交易时段，美元指数稳居99.17高位，延续上周五的强劲走势。美国非农就业数据超出预期，给期待美联储降息的投资者泼了一盆冷 水。 **美元指数上周五收涨0.53%至99.20**，创下两周来最大单日涨幅。 与此同时，美国洛杉矶的大规模骚乱已进入第三天，特朗普部署2000名国民警卫队进驻洛杉矶，美防长甚至表示海军陆战队正"高度戒备"。** 这场美国内乱意外成为避险资产的临时推手**，黄金在亚市早盘小幅上涨至3317美元附近。 一份超预期的就业报告，一场突如其来的美国骚乱，全球外汇市场在避险与预期的角力中开启关键一周。 01 市场概览：非农引爆美元，黄金承压 上周五外汇市场经历剧烈波动。美国劳工部数据显示，**5月非农就业岗位增加13.9万个**，虽低于4月的14.7万，但超过预期的13万。 这份"**恰到好处**"的就业报告既显示劳动力市场略有降温，又证明经济韧性犹存，直接打击了市场对美联储近期降息的预期。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速调整押注：**交易员削减了2025年第三次降息的预期**，将首次降息时间推迟至9月。美债收益率应声飙升，10年 期美债收益率暴涨超10个基点至4.512%，为2010年来罕见涨 ...