月度策略/A 股市场 2025 年 4 月 30 日 继续企稳修复 2025 年 5 月份投资策略报告 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 市场主要指数 | 4 | 月份表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3279.03 | -1.70% | | 深证成指 | 9899.82 | -5.75% | | 沪深 300 | 3770.57 | -3.00% | | 创业板指 | 1948.03 | -7.40% | | 北证 50 | 1331.13 | 4.72% | | 科创 50 | 1012.42 | -1.01% | 资料来源：东莞 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent annual report of Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group (601225.SH) reveals a slight increase in revenue but a decrease in net profit, highlighting the need for transformation in the coal and electricity industry due to cyclical fluctuations [2][4]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 184.145 billion yuan, an increase of 1.47% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 22.36 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.21% [2]. - The coal production reached 170.4846 million tons, up 4.13% year-on-year, and coal sales increased to 258.4308 million tons, a rise of 9.13% [4]. - The average coal price fell to 561.30 yuan per ton, down 8.50% year-on-year [5]. Business Segmentation - In 2024, coal business revenue accounted for 88.34% of total revenue at 162.674 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.02%, while electricity business revenue was 16.176 billion yuan, down 7.84% [8]. - The transportation business generated 0.876 billion yuan, up 0.51%, and other businesses contributed 4.420 billion yuan, down 13.96% [8]. Strategic Moves - The company has engaged in over 10 billion yuan in acquisitions to mitigate industry impacts, with a focus on coal-electricity integration [3][9]. - A significant acquisition of 15.695 billion yuan for an 88.6525% stake in Shaanxi Coal Power Group is aimed at enhancing operational synergy [9][11]. - The restructuring of non-core assets prior to the acquisition is intended to streamline operations and focus on core fire power generation [10]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates that electricity and chemical coal will be the main sources of coal consumption growth, with stable coal production expected [11]. - The energy market is expected to face tight supply-demand conditions during peak electricity consumption periods in 2025 [12].

Group 1: Hydropower - The hydropower sector is supported by a series of policies aimed at promoting green and low-carbon energy transitions, with significant emphasis on the development of hydropower projects [11][12][13] - China's hydropower installed capacity is projected to grow from 370 million kilowatts at the end of 2020 to 436 million kilowatts by the end of 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 4% [12][15] - Major hydropower companies such as Yangtze Power, Huaneng Hydropower, and Yalong River Company have plans for new installations, indicating future growth potential in hydropower capacity [15][19] - The hydropower sector has maintained profitability, with a revenue of 178.7 billion yuan in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 22.51%, and a net profit of 47.9 billion yuan, up 20.18% [19][21] - Nine out of eleven listed hydropower companies have returned profits to shareholders through cash dividends, with significant payout ratios, indicating a commitment to sharing development results with investors [19][21] Group 2: Coal Power - The establishment of a coal power capacity price mechanism is expected to assist in the recovery of fixed costs for compliant coal power plants, with a standard fixed cost of 330 yuan per kilowatt per year [24][26] - The capacity price mechanism will allow coal power companies to recover a portion of their fixed costs, with most regions set to recover around 30% to 50% of these costs in 2024-2025 [26][27] - The auxiliary service market is being continuously improved, with policies in place to enhance the compensation mechanisms for various types of power auxiliary services [29][30] - The average price of thermal coal has decreased by 6.28% year-on-year, which is expected to positively impact the performance of coal power companies [38][39] Group 3: Natural Gas - The development of the industrial economy is anticipated to boost natural gas demand, with a projected consumption of 426.05 billion cubic meters in 2024, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [51][53] - A series of policies aimed at stimulating industrial growth are expected to enhance natural gas demand, with the 2025 government work report emphasizing the need to expand domestic demand [53][65] - The orderly advancement of the natural gas price linkage mechanism is expected to help gas companies manage procurement costs effectively, promoting healthy development in the gas sector [57][60]

能源转型的深入推进，对煤电发展提出了更高要求。一方面，煤电不仅要自己跑得稳，还得随时给新能 源"救场"。截至2024年，我国新能源装机占比首超煤电与气电总和，能源转型迈过重要里程碑，但欠稳 定的新能源发电加剧了电网调节压力，电力系统的游戏规则正在被改写。为支撑新能源大规模并网，煤 电机组频繁处于低负荷运行状态，传统"三改联动"虽提升了基础性能，但面对新型电力系统对调节速 度、调峰深度的更高要求，仍需进一步挖掘灵活调节能力，保障能源转型和安全供应之间的平衡。 近些年，我国煤电行业经历了大刀阔斧的优化提升。从超低排放改造到节能降碳改造、灵活性改造、供 热改造"三改联动"，再到低碳化改造，煤电机组的能效提升、灵活性增强和环保水平优化成果显著。日 前，国家发展改革委、国家能源局联合印发《新一代煤电升级专项行动实施方案（2025—2027年）》， 再次将煤电推到了改革升级的聚光灯下。为何在既有成果基础上仍需进一步升级？新一轮行动又该如何 科学推进？ 作为我国基础性电源，煤电在保障电力安全稳定供应方面发挥了"顶梁柱"和"压舱石"作用。考虑到煤电 是能源领域主要的碳排放源之一，以及能源转型的需要，我国近年来积极推进煤电机组 ...

Core Viewpoint - The National Energy Administration has launched a new generation of coal power upgrade initiative aimed at transforming traditional coal power towards "clean carbon reduction, safe and reliable, efficient regulation, and intelligent operation" [1][3] Summary by Categories Existing Units - The initiative encourages further upgrades based on the "three modifications" principle, promoting low-carbon transformation [1] - For safety and reliability, the required output compliance rate during the supply guarantee period is set at no less than 98%, with unplanned outages not exceeding 0.3 times per unit per year [1] - In terms of efficient regulation, the increase in coal consumption for low-load power generation should be controlled within 25%, and units are encouraged to enhance primary frequency modulation performance and implement start-stop peak regulation modifications [1] - The initiative promotes improvements in intelligent control, operation, and decision-making capabilities [1] New Units - New units are encouraged to meet the indicators set forth in the upgrade initiative, with conditions for low-carbon transformation reserved [2] - The safety and reliability standards mirror those of existing units, requiring a 98% output compliance rate and limiting unplanned outages to 0.3 times per unit per year [2] - For efficient regulation, new coal powder furnace units must achieve a minimum technical output of 25%, with low-load power generation coal consumption increase capped at 20% [2] - The initiative encourages the adoption of advanced intelligent control, operation, and decision-making technologies [2] Pilot Demonstration Units - For pilot demonstration units, carbon emissions per kilowatt-hour should be reduced by 10%-20% compared to similar coal power units in 2024 after implementing carbon reduction measures [2] - The safety and reliability standards are heightened, requiring a 99% output compliance rate during the supply guarantee period [2] - The coal consumption for ultra-supercritical and wet-cooling design conditions should not exceed 270 grams per kilowatt-hour, with adjustments allowed based on actual conditions [2] - Full-load automatic load adjustment control and enhanced intelligent operation and decision-making levels are required [2] Overall Significance - The new generation coal power upgrade initiative is a key measure to explore innovative transformation paths for coal power that align with the development of new power systems, ensuring electricity safety while enhancing coal power's flexible regulation capabilities to promote renewable energy consumption [3]

2024年，陕西能源的煤电装机总规模达到1725万千瓦，其中在役装机1123万千瓦，在建装机402万千 瓦，核准筹建装机200万千瓦。公司新投产机组装机容量205万千瓦，包括清水川三期和延安热电项目。 全年发电量530.43亿千瓦时，同比增长19.74%，电力业务收入同比增长19.62%。 然而，2025年一季度，公司发电量出现下滑，导致营业收入同比下降7.78%。这表明尽管装机规模扩 大，但实际发电量的增长并未跟上，反映出公司在电力业务上的运营效率有待提升。 2025年4月18日，陕西能源（001286）发布了2024年年报及2025年一季报。2024年，公司实现营业总收 入231.56亿元，同比增长19.04%；归属净利润30.09亿元，同比增长17.73%。然而，2025年一季度，公 司营业总收入同比下降7.78%，归属净利润同比下降28.78%，显示出明显的业绩下滑趋势。 电力业务：装机规模扩大，但发电量增长放缓 煤炭业务：产能扩张，但外销量增长有限 截至2024年底，陕西能源核定煤炭产能共计3000万吨/年，其中已投产产能2400万吨/年，在建产能600 万吨/年。2024年，公司原煤产量2356. ...

4月17日晚间，陕西能源（001286.SZ）发布2024年年度报告，公司2024年全年实现营业收入231.56亿 元，同比增长19.04%；实现归母净利润30.09亿元，同比增长17.73%；扣非净利润29.80亿元，同比增长 17.94%；基本每股收益0.80元/股。 同时，公司拟向全体股东每10股派发现金红利3.60元(含税)，拟派发现金红利总金额为13.5亿元(含税)。 2024年，陕西能源经营继续保持较好的增长态势。公司主动应对煤电产业新形势，优化煤电协同，强化 生产组织，安全生产运行平稳有序，经营业绩稳步增长;项目获取取得突破，项目建设有序推进，梯次 增长态势进一步巩固;积极对标一流，提升管理效能，有力促进提质增效;大力推动改革创新，全面落实 国企改革工作任务，获评国务院国资委2023年度"标杆"双百企业。 报告期内，陕西能源夯实煤电主责主业，积极拓展业务领域。公司煤电产业规模持续壮大。完成了对信 丰能源51%股权的收购，新增煤电装机200万千瓦，其投资建设的信丰电厂二期2×1000MW机组于年内8 月正式开工。取得钱阳山煤矿采矿权，新增煤炭资源10.2亿吨，项目公司庆阳能源已于年内成立。推动 能 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 陕西能源(001286.SZ) | | | 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 煤矿电厂投运助力业绩新高，产能持续扩张 未来可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 18 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 [Table_ReportType] 点评报告 [Table_StockAndRank] 陕西能源(001286.SZ) | | | 上次评级 买入 [Table_A 左前明 uthor 能源行业首席分析师 ] 执业编号：S1500518070001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：zuoqianming@cindasc.com 李春驰 电力公用联席首席分析师 执业编号：S1500522070001 联系电话：010-83326723 邮 箱：lichunchi@cindasc.com 邢秦浩 电力公用分析师 执业编号：S1500524080001 联系电话：010-83326712 邮 箱：xingqinhao@cindasc.com 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127号金隅大厦 B座 邮编：100031 [Table_Title] 煤矿电厂投运助力业绩新高，产能持续扩张 未来可期 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 04 月 18 日 [Table_S 事件：202ummar 5 年y ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implementation plan for the "New Generation Coal Power Upgrade Special Action" from 2025 to 2027, emphasizing the importance of coal power in supporting the new power system and addressing carbon emission challenges [2]. Group 1: Strategic Planning for Coal Power Development - Coal power has historically played a foundational role in China's power system, with significant installed capacity and generation volume [3]. - The new power system construction is accelerating, with renewable energy sources expected to surpass coal and gas power combined by 2024, and to dominate by the end of the 15th Five-Year Plan [3]. - The plan aims to enhance coal power's adaptability to the new power system, focusing on clean carbon reduction, safety, reliability, and efficient regulation [3]. Group 2: Construction of Coal Power Indicator System - The plan establishes a comprehensive technical indicator system for coal power, focusing on four dimensions: clean carbon reduction, safety, efficient regulation, and intelligent operation [4]. - New indicators include low-load coal consumption increase, load change rate, and frequency response, which are being introduced for the first time in industry policy [4][5]. - The plan sets specific coal consumption increase limits for existing and new coal power units, with current units typically showing a 25% to 35% increase [5]. Group 3: Carbon Reduction and Safety Measures - The plan encourages existing units to implement low-carbon modifications and requires new units to consider low-carbon design [7]. - Safety is prioritized, with specific indicators for supply guarantee performance and unplanned outages during critical periods [8]. - The plan emphasizes the need for intelligent operation, including automated load adjustment and enhanced operational safety monitoring [8]. Group 4: Managing the Upgrade Process - The upgrade of coal power is identified as a core strategy, with a focus on balancing system demand, technology maturity, cost-effectiveness, and project conditions [9]. - Local authorities are empowered to develop tailored action plans for coal power upgrades, reflecting regional differences in energy supply and demand [9][10]. - The plan categorizes existing, new, and demonstration units, with different strategies for each to encourage performance improvements [10]. Group 5: Industry Collaboration and Policy Support - The plan highlights the need for collaboration among power generation companies, equipment manufacturers, and research institutions to drive innovation in coal power technology [11]. - A comprehensive policy support system is proposed, including funding mechanisms and prioritization of new generation coal power projects within the national framework [12]. - The expected outcome is a significant enhancement of the coal power industry's value in the new power system, driving sustainable upgrades [12].