【资讯导读】 ·中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议 ·美财长贝森特认为与欧盟快速达成贸易协议可能性低 ·欧洲央行管委：可能于夏季再次降息 ·美国4月CPI同比上涨2.3% 连续三个月低于预期 【市场资讯】 ·中国央行与巴西央行续签双边本币互换协议，规模为1900亿元人民币/1570亿巴西雷亚尔，协议有效期 五年，经双方同意可以展期。 ·美国财长贝森特认为与欧盟快速达成贸易协议可能性低，指出欧盟的"集体行动问题"影响谈判进度。 相较之下，他对与亚洲伙伴如日本和印尼的谈判进展表示乐观。 ·美元指数下跌0.82%报100.9827，欧元兑美元上涨0.88%报1.1185，英镑兑美元上涨0.98%报1.3305，澳 元兑美元上涨1.53%报0.6470，美元兑日元下跌0.66%报147.4910，美元兑加元下跌0.27%报1.3936，美元 兑瑞郎下跌0.72%报0.8395。 【日内重点关注】 ·14:00 德国4月CPI月率终值 ·日本央行副行长内田真一表示，尽管美国关税政策带来不确定性，但预计薪资和物价将上涨，表明日 本央行坚持加息立场。 ·美国4月CPI同比上涨2.3%，连续三个月低于预期，创2021年2 ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs showed mixed performance in early trading, with semiconductor and global airline ETFs rising over 1%, while healthcare and biotechnology ETFs fell nearly 2% [1] Semiconductor Sector - Semiconductor ETF increased by 3.71 to 241.12, representing a gain of 1.56% with a trading volume of 524,400 shares and a total market value of 28.50 billion [2] Airline Industry - Global airline ETF rose by 0.25 to 22.80, reflecting an increase of 1.11% with a trading volume of 166,100 shares and a total market value of 718.20 million [2] Healthcare Sector - Healthcare ETF decreased by 3.11 to 132.85, marking a decline of 2.29% with a trading volume of 1,881,800 shares and a total market value of 254.23 billion [2] Biotechnology Sector - Biotechnology index ETF fell by 2.37 to 119.69, indicating a drop of 1.94% with a trading volume of 80,763 shares and a total market value of 95.03 billion [2] Technology Sector - Technology sector ETF rose by 1.94 to 229.64, showing an increase of 0.85% with a trading volume of 475,800 shares and a total market value of 730.40 billion [2] Consumer Discretionary - Consumer discretionary ETF increased by 1.48 to 213.95, reflecting a gain of 0.70% with a trading volume of 285,600 shares and a total market value of 268.73 billion [2] Financial Sector - Financial sector ETF rose by 0.24 to 51.11, representing an increase of 0.47% with a trading volume of 2,047,300 shares and a total market value of 568.88 billion [2]

挪威央行投资管理公司(NBIM)管理的挪威主权财富基金上周日表示，已决定就环境实践问题，主动与 矿业巨头力拓(RIO.US)和South32展开对话。作为全球规模最大的主权财富基金，其执行董事会透露， 该决定源于政府任命的独立顾问——伦理委员会提出的撤资建议。 此外，挪威主权财富基金还宣布，取消对德国能源企业莱茵集团(RWE AG)的投资限制，并称赞其向可 再生能源转型的举措。 与此同时，该基金以伦理问题为由，决定抛售墨西哥石油公司(Petroleos Mexicanos)和以色列Paz零售能 源公司(Paz Retail and Energy)的股票。 路孚特(LSEG)数据显示，该基金持有力拓集团(Rio Tinto PLC)约2.5%的股份、力拓有限公司(Rio Tinto Ltd)0.13%的股份，以及South322.6%的股份。 北里约矿业合资项目由嘉能可(Glencore，持股45%)、力拓(持股22%)和South32(持股33%)共同持有。 South32公司发言人在电子邮件中回应："South32注意到挪威主权财富基金基于伦理委员会建议，决定 与我方展开沟通。"该发言人补充道，公司将继续就 ...

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP in Q1 2025 grew by 5.4% year-on-year, the same as the previous quarter and slightly higher than the same period last year [1] - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down from 50.5% in the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.4%, down from 50.8% in the previous month [1] - In April 2025, the Caixin manufacturing PMI was 50.4%, down from 51.2% in the previous month; the Caixin services business activity index was 50.7%, down from 51.9% in the previous month [1] - In March 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 1.6%, and 7.0% respectively [1] - In April 2025, CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI was down 2.7% year - on - year [1] - In April 2025, exports increased by 8.1% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.2% year - on - year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - The China - US high - level economic and trade talks on May 10 - 11 in Geneva were productive, and a consultation mechanism will be established [2] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in the next stage, and boosting consumption is the key to expanding domestic demand [2] - In April 2025, CPI turned from a 0.4% decline in the previous month to a 0.1% increase month - on - month, and core CPI rose 0.2% month - on - month [3] 2.2 Metals - Gold prices are volatile, and many wealth management companies have launched gold - linked wealth management products [5] - Goldman Sachs raised its copper price forecasts for Q2 and Q3 2025 to $9330/ton and $9150/ton respectively [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - China will carry out a special campaign to combat the smuggling of strategic minerals [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - Iraq plans to export 3.2 million barrels of crude oil per day in June [9] - Oman is considering selling an $8 billion stake in a natural gas field [9] 2.5 Agricultural Products - On May 9, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.1% compared to April 30 [10] - In April 2025, China's soybean imports increased by 72.59% month - on - month [10] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On May 9, the central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan [12] - This week, 836.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF will mature [12] 3.2 Key News - The China - US high - level economic and trade talks achieved important consensus and substantial progress [13] - The State Council called for in - depth planning of the "15th Five - Year Plan" and support for free trade zones [15] - China's goods trade imports and exports in the first four months increased by 2.4% year - on - year [16] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - Treasury bond futures mostly fell slightly, and the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active bond rose 0.4bp [22] - The money market funds were loose, and the repo rates of deposit - type institutions decreased [22] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.2461 on May 12, down 106 points from the previous trading day [27] - In Q1 2025, China's current account surplus was $165.6 billion [28] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income said that the bond market has several new trends this year [29] - CITIC Securities believes that the credit spread is unlikely to decline trendily in May [29] 4. Stock Market Key News - This week, 28 A - share stocks will face restricted - share unlocking, with a total market value of 18.63 billion yuan [33] - Since May, many fund companies have conducted intensive research on listed companies [33] - Some private equity firms believe that the stage of the greatest impact of tariffs has passed [34]

| 行业类 v | 当前价 ÷ | 涨跌幅 ◆ | 成交量 # | | 总市值 = 年初至今 = | 0 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 区域银行ET ... | 56.16 | ↑ +0.65 (+1.17%) | 78.68万股 | 46.87 亿 | -6.33% | [] ... | | us KRE | | | | | | | | 可选消费ET ... | 201.33 | +2.24 (+1.13%) | 99362服 | 252.88亿 | -10.01% | [] *** | | us XLY | | | | | | | | 能源业ETF - ... | 81.41 | +0.86 (+1.07%) | 77.63万股 | 203.87 亿 | -4.22% | ( ) == | | us XLE | | | | | | | | 银行业ETF - ... | 52.41 | +0.53 (+1.02%) | 33907股 | 40.57 Z | -4.84% | = == | | us KBE | | | | | | | | 全球 ...

Group 1 - Germany's industrial output increased by 3% month-on-month in March, marking the highest quarterly growth since early 2022 with a 1.4% increase in Q1 [1] - The construction sector saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1%, while the energy sector experienced a decline of 1.8% [1] - Excluding construction and energy, industrial output rose by 3.6% in March, with significant contributions from the automotive industry (8.1% growth), pharmaceuticals (19.6% growth), and machinery manufacturing (4.4% growth) [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, Germany's industrial output decreased by 0.2% in March after adjusting for working days [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes that cultural exchanges between China and Russia have been a driving force for the sustained development of bilateral relations, with a solid foundation of public opinion established over nearly 76 years of diplomatic ties [1][5][7] - The "China-Russia Cultural Year" from 2024 to 2025 will feature hundreds of cultural exchange activities, further strengthening the friendly social foundation between the two nations [1][2] - The successful performances of the original Shenzhen dance drama "Yongchun" in Russia and the co-produced film "Red Silk" highlight the growing cultural cooperation and mutual appreciation between the two countries [2][3] Group 2 - The number of Chinese tourists visiting Russia is projected to reach 848,000 in 2024, a 4.2-fold increase from 2023, while the number of Russian tourists visiting China, particularly Hainan, has surged by 11 times [6] - In 2024, the trade volume between China and Russia reached $244.8 billion, marking a 1.9% year-on-year increase, with China maintaining its position as Russia's largest trading partner for 15 consecutive years [6] - The cultural exchanges are supported by improved visa policies, deepening economic cooperation, and a mature exchange mechanism, which facilitate closer ties between the two nations [5][6][8] Group 3 - The "Cultural Year" emphasizes the importance of dialogue and understanding between different cultural traditions, enhancing mutual recognition and respect among the peoples of both countries [7][9] - Public opinion surveys indicate a high level of mutual recognition and optimism regarding the future of China-Russia relations, with 95% of young Russians expressing a favorable view of China [7][9] - The ongoing cultural cooperation is seen as a vital component of the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Russia, contributing to the integration of cultures and the strengthening of public sentiment [8][9]

宏观策略周论："对等关税"以来的输家和赢家 20250506 摘要 • 对等关税后，全球资产表现分化，避险资产如黄金、比特币震荡上行；美 国资产替代需求增加，资金流向欧洲、日本，新兴市场内部资金腾挪，中 国市场（尤其是港股）相对落后。 • 尽管五一假期期间美股未大幅下跌，但内需板块相对泡沫化，外需板块受 关税拖累。美国能源、运输业和中国互联网、软件、非银金融、银行业受 影响较大。 • 中国房地产脱困可借鉴国际经验，如日本长期低息贷款和城市规划，生育 支持政策可参考日韩经验，提供经济补贴、完善育儿设施，刺激内需，提 高出生率。 • 美国股市、债市、汇率三杀，资金流出美国，可能回流港股或欧洲，但新 兴市场风险较高，关税不确定性犹存，外资对美国存量资金影响有限。 • 美联储降息预期推迟至 7 月，美债利率交易在 3.8%左右，下行受限。二 季度美国经济面临关税谈判、减税和汇率变化三大关键因素。 • 港股市场宜采取低迷时积极介入、亢奋时适度获利的策略。行业配置应考 虑成长与防御、外需与内需两条线，并结合宏观经济影响进行细致分析。 • 人民币汇率韧性超出预期，并非完全由基本面解释，伴随结构性或资金面 因素。中国央行可能 ...

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced declines, with the biotechnology index ETF dropping nearly 2%, the global technology stock index ETF falling 1.5%, and the semiconductor ETF decreasing by 1.4% [1]. Industry Performance - Biotechnology Index ETF: Current price at 123.54, down 2.32 (-1.84%), with a year-to-date decline of 6.47% [2]. - Global Technology Stock ETF: Current price at 78.07, down 1.19 (-1.50%), with a year-to-date decline of 7.88% [2]. - Semiconductor ETF: Current price at 214.60, down 3.01 (-1.38%), with a year-to-date decline of 11.38% [2]. - Technology Sector ETF: Current price at 212.73, down 2.73 (-1.27%), with a year-to-date decline of 8.35% [2]. - Networking Stock Index ETF: Current price at 235.52, down 2.82 (-1.18%), with a year-to-date decline of 3.15% [2]. - Healthcare ETF: Current price at 136.63, down 1.51 (-1.09%), with a year-to-date decline of 0.30% [2]. - Banking Sector ETF: Current price at 51.71, down 0.50 (-0.96%), with a year-to-date decline of 6.11% [2]. - Regional Bank ETF: Current price at 55.55, down 0.49 (-0.87%), with a year-to-date decline of 7.34% [2]. - Financial Sector ETF: Current price at 49.05, down 0.39 (-0.79%), with a year-to-date increase of 1.86% [2]. - Consumer Discretionary ETF: Current price at 197.72, down 1.57 (-0.79%), with a year-to-date decline of 11.63% [2]. - Global Airline ETF: Current price at 20.93, down 0.11 (-0.52%), with a year-to-date decline of 17.44% [2]. - Consumer Staples ETF: Current price at 81.19, down 0.30 (-0.37%), with a year-to-date increase of 3.83% [2]. - Utilities ETF: Current price at 79.97, up 0.42 (+0.53%), with a year-to-date increase of 6.40% [2]. - Energy Sector ETF: Current price at 80.97, up 0.47 (+0.58%), with a year-to-date decline of 4.74% [2].

Market Overview - Major industry ETFs in the US stock market experienced declines, with the energy sector ETF dropping by 2%, and both the financial and consumer discretionary ETFs falling by over 1% [1] Energy Sector - The energy sector ETF is priced at 80.34, reflecting a decrease of 1.64, or 2.00% [2] - The total market capitalization for the energy sector ETF is 201.19 billion, with a year-to-date change of -5.48% [2] Financial Sector - The financial sector ETF is currently at 49.19, down by 0.57, or 1.16% [2] - This ETF has a total market capitalization of 547.45 billion, showing a year-to-date increase of 2.14% [2] Consumer Discretionary Sector - The consumer discretionary ETF is priced at 199.31, down by 2.13, or 1.05% [2] - The total market capitalization for this ETF is 250.33 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 10.92% [2] Utility Sector - The utility sector ETF is at 79.01, down by 0.74, or 0.93% [2] - It has a total market capitalization of 114.70 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 5.13% [2] Technology Sector - The technology sector ETF is priced at 215.56, reflecting a decrease of 1.05, or 0.48% [2] - The total market capitalization for the technology sector ETF is 685.60 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 7.13% [2] Biotechnology Sector - The biotechnology index ETF is at 126.09, down by 0.51, or 0.40% [2] - Its total market capitalization is 100.12 billion, with a year-to-date decrease of 4.54% [2] Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor ETF is priced at 218.32, down by 0.71, or 0.32% [2] - The total market capitalization for this ETF is 25.81 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 9.85% [2] Regional Banks - The regional bank ETF is at 56.07, down by 0.17, or 0.30% [2] - It has a total market capitalization of 46.79 billion, with a year-to-date decrease of 6.47% [2] Global Technology Sector - The global technology ETF is priced at 79.42, down by 0.15, or 0.19% [2] - Its total market capitalization is 11.12 billion, with a year-to-date decline of 6.29% [2] Global Airline Sector - The global airline ETF is at 21.07, up by 0.19, or 0.91% [2] - The total market capitalization for this ETF is 663.70 million, with a year-to-date decline of 16.88% [2]