交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月17日 Z0021810 寇帝斯 | 品种 | 6月16日 | 6月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 単位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 云南国富全乱胶(SCRWF):下海 | 13900 | 13900 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 全乳基差 (切换至2509合约) | -10 | 25 | -35 | -140.00% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13750 | 13750 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 非标价差 | -160 | -125 | -35 | -28.00% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 47.45 | 47.05 | 0.40 | 0.85% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水：国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.75 | 56.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 天然橡胶:胶块:西双版纳州 | 12600 | 12200 | 400 | 3.28% | | | 天然橡胶:胶水:西双版纳州 | 13100 | 12 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the soda ash futures fluctuated downward at a low level. The supply of soda ash increased slightly while the demand was weak. Considering the high inventory, it is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Views - The closing price of the main soda ash futures contract SA2509 last week was 1,156 yuan/ton, a 4.62% decrease from the previous week. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease [2]. - The industry's production capacity is operating normally with a slight increase in supply. The expected output next week is 760,000 tons, and the operating rate will rise to around 87% [2]. - The demand from downstream float and photovoltaic glass is average. The daily melting volume of float glass decreased by 1,100 tons to 155,700 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass decreased by 480 tons to 98,300 tons. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand restocking, and the overall consumption volume fluctuates little [2]. - As of June 12, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,686,300 tons, a 3.64% increase from the previous week, remaining at a historically high level [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [4]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The cold - repair rate of downstream float glass is high, and the daily melting volume is decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [6]. 3.3 Soda Ash Futures and Spot Market Weekly Quotes | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1,212 | 1,252 | 40 | | Current Value | 1,156 | 1,200 | 44 | | Change Rate | - 4.62% | - 4.15% | 10.00% | [7] 3.4 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, a 4.15% decrease from the previous week [13]. - The profit of the combined soda - making method for heavy soda ash in East China is 41.50 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method for heavy soda ash in North China is - 43.30 yuan/ton, both at historically low levels [16]. - The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 84.90%, and the expected operating rate will stabilize and rebound [18]. - The weekly output of soda ash is 740,100 tons, including 405,800 tons of heavy soda ash, with the output falling from a historical high [20]. - The weekly heavy - soda production rate of soda ash is 54.83% [22]. 3.5 New Production Capacity of Soda Ash - In 2023, the new production capacity of soda ash was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; and the planned new production capacity in 2025 is 7.5 million tons, with an actual production of 1 million tons [23]. 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash is 92.04% [26]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,700 tons, and the operating rate of 75.57% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [29]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 98,700 tons, and the production has stabilized [32]. 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1,686,300 tons, including 875,000 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level for the same period [35]. 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the production capacity, output, import, export, and other data of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, as well as the supply - demand gap, growth rate, etc. [36]

纯碱早报 2025-6-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修逐步恢复，供给高位下滑逐步企稳；下游浮法和光伏玻璃日熔量平稳，终 端需求一般，纯碱厂库下滑但仍处于历史高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1200元/吨，SA2509收盘价为1156元/吨，基差为44元，期货 贴水现货；偏多 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存168.63万吨，较前一周增加3.64%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面供强需弱，短期预计低位震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游光伏玻璃产能有所提升，提振纯碱需求。 利空： 1、23年以来，纯碱产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Report Core Views Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: High - level oscillation. The core driver has shifted from supply - demand to geopolitics, and the Israel - Iran conflict will dominate oil prices [3][4]. - **LPG**: Bullish in the short - term. The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost, and the fundamentals are improving marginally [6][8]. - **L**: Bearish rebound. Cost support has improved, but there are risks of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [10][11]. - **PP**: Bearish rebound. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [13][14]. - **PVC**: Bearish rebound. The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand [15]. - **PX**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply and demand are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving in May [16][17]. - **PTA**: Bullish in the short - term but with a weakening fundamental outlook. Supply pressure is expected to increase, and downstream demand is weakening [19][20]. - **Ethylene Glycol (MEG)**: Cautiously long at low levels. Supply pressure has eased, and inventory is continuously decreasing [22][23]. Building Materials - **Glass**: Weak and oscillating. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [25][27]. - **Soda Ash**: Weakly seeking the bottom. Supply is increasing, and inventory is accumulating [28][30]. - **Caustic Soda**: Suppressed by the moving average. Supply is expected to increase, and demand is weakening [31][33]. - **Methanol**: Bullish in the short - term. Affected by geopolitical conflicts, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand [34] 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: International oil prices rose significantly on June 13. WTI rose 4.78%, Brent rose 7.02%, and SC rose 4.74% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: The core driver is geopolitics. The Israel - Iran conflict is uncertain, and in extreme cases, Iran may block the Strait of Hormuz. Supply is stable, and demand is expected to increase slightly. Inventory data shows a decline in US commercial crude oil inventory [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, and the price range is estimated to be between $55 - 65. In the short - term, prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. SC is recommended to focus on the range of [530 - 570] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the PG main contract closed at 4275 yuan/ton, up 3.06%. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China all increased [7]. - **Basic Logic**: The strengthening of upstream crude oil drives up the cost. Supply has decreased slightly, demand from downstream chemical industries has increased, and inventory has decreased [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the valuation is high. In the short - term, affected by geopolitics, buy put options. PG is recommended to focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] [9]. L - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and both futures and spot prices have risen. The North China basis is - 18 (down 17 from the previous period) [11]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure will decrease next week, but the market is still consuming low - price spot inventory. It is in the traditional off - season, and there is a risk of continued inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts are unclear, so reduce short positions. Upstream enterprises can sell for hedging when the basis is negative. L is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: Cost support has improved, and the rebound continues. Spot high - price transactions are weak, and the East China basis is 62 (down 81 from the previous period) [14]. - **Basic Logic**: Demand is weak, and it is in the consumption off - season. Supply is expected to increase in June - July, and there is pressure on inventory accumulation in the middle - stream [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions. Downstream enterprises can buy for hedging when the basis is high. PP is recommended to focus on the range of [7000 - 7150] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The cost of ethylene - based plants has increased, and the Changzhou basis is - 109 (down 3 from the previous period) [15]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic PVC supply has decreased slightly due to maintenance. Demand has weakened in some domestic industries due to the off - season and rainy season. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement. Rebound and go short. V is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4900] [15]. PX - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 6900 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the PX09 contract closed at 6780 yuan/ton (+244). The basis has converged [16]. - **Basic Logic**: Domestic and overseas PX device loads have increased, supply pressure has increased, and demand is expected to improve. Inventory has decreased but is still at a relatively high level. The PXN spread has compressed, and the basis has converged [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. PX is recommended to focus on the range of [6730 - 6880] [18]. PTA - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 5015 yuan/ton (+160), and the TA09 contract closed at 4782 yuan/ton (+162). The basis and monthly spread have strengthened [19]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure is expected to increase as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing. Processing fees are high [20]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the opportunity to go short at high levels. TA is recommended to focus on the range of [4750 - 4880] [21]. MEG - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 4426 yuan/ton (+79), and the EG09 contract closed at 4334 yuan/ton (+100). The basis and monthly spread are strong [22]. - **Basic Logic**: Device maintenance has increased, and the arrival volume is low, so supply pressure has eased. Downstream demand is weakening, but inventory is decreasing [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Continue to focus on the opportunity to go long at low levels. EG is recommended to focus on the range of [4270 - 4350] [24]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot market prices have been reduced, the futures price has fallen under pressure, the basis has widened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [26]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical risks have led to a decrease in market risk appetite. Domestic private credit expansion is blocked, and the demand for glass is shrinking. Enterprises are reducing prices to clear inventory, and the fundamentals are weak [27]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: FG is recommended to focus on the range of [960 - 990], and it is expected to oscillate weakly under the pressure of the 1000 - yuan mark [27]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The spot price of heavy soda ash has been reduced, the futures price has broken through and fallen, the main - contract basis has widened, the number of warehouse receipts has decreased, and the number of valid forecasts has remained unchanged [29]. - **Basic Logic**: The market supply has increased as maintenance devices restart and new capacities are put into production. Demand is weak, inventory is at a high level, and the cost center has moved down [30]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: SA is recommended to focus on the range of [1140 - 1180], suppressed by the 5 - day and 10 - day moving averages [30]. Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The spot price of caustic soda has remained stable, the futures price has been weak, the basis has strengthened, and the number of warehouse receipts has remained unchanged [32]. - **Basic Logic**: The price of liquid chlorine has risen, and some enterprises may postpone maintenance. Supply is expected to increase, and demand from the alumina industry is weakening [33]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text. Methanol - **Market Review**: On June 13, the spot price in East China was 2439 yuan/ton (+108), and the main 09 - contract closed at 2389 yuan/ton (+99). The basis and monthly spread have changed [34]. - **Basic Logic**: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, the price has risen, but there are concerns about negative feedback from MTO demand. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand improvement is limited [34]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation is provided in the given text.

国泰君安期货·能源化工 玻璃纯碱周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·张驰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011243 日期：2025年6月15日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 纯碱：供应、 库存 05 纯碱：价格、 利润 06 01 玻璃：供应 端情况介绍 02 玻璃：价格 与利润 03 玻璃：库存 及下游开工 光伏玻璃： 价格与利润、 04 CONTENTS 产能与库存 玻璃观点：中期震荡市 第一，短期现货偏弱，全国各个地区玻璃价格普遍下跌。就中期而言需要注意6月地产偿债高峰因素、湖北仓 单定价对盘面压制因素，暂不宜对玻璃过度高看，但低位下跌空间也有限，长期看需要注意09合约作为一个 旺季合约，盘面定价却亏损幅度较大，玻璃未来波动率或较大； 第二、趋势上多头交易的核心支撑主要在政策端未来可能因地产收储、政府财政支持，政策资金保障加强后 保交楼落地预期增强、现货价格较低，处于历史价格25%分位以下、厂家长期亏损、09合约旺季预期； 第三、空头交易房 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The fundamentals of soda ash show strong supply and weak demand. In the short - term, it is expected to mainly operate with a weak and low - level oscillation. The supply has declined from a high level, terminal demand improvement is limited, and although inventory has been decreasing, it remains at a high level compared to the same period. The industry's supply - demand mismatch pattern has not been effectively improved [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash futures is 1175 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1220 yuan/ton, and the main basis is 45 yuan, with a 7.14% increase compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The production capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The industry's output is at a historically high level. The cold - repair of float glass, a downstream product of heavy soda ash, is at a high level, and the daily melting volume has been decreasing, resulting in weak demand for soda ash [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Supply** - Production profit: The profit of the joint - soda process for heavy soda ash in East China is 86 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda process for heavy soda ash in North China is - 10.10 yuan/ton, which is at a low level compared to the same period in history [15]. - Operating rate and production: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.76%, and the weekly production is 70.41 tons, with heavy soda ash production at 38.22 tons, and the production has declined from a historical high [18][20]. - Capacity changes: In 2023, the new production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with 100 tons actually put into production [21]. - **Demand** - Sales - to - production ratio: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 107.66% [24]. - Downstream demand: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.68 tons, and the operating rate of 75.53% continues to decline, resulting in weak demand for soda ash. The price of photovoltaic glass has stabilized, the daily melting volume in production has rebounded to 9.87 tons, and the production has stabilized [27][30]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 168.63 tons, including 87.50 tons of heavy soda ash, and the inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history [33]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates in each year [34].

行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 6 月 13 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 | | | 表1：纯碱、玻璃期货6月12日交易数据汇总 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 持仓量 | 持仓量变 | | | | | | | | （%） | （万手） | 化 | | SA509 | 1198 | 1199 | 1171 | 1175 | -28 | -2.32 | 160.23 | 105598 | | SA601 | 1185 | 1185 | 1161 | 1165 | -22 | -1. ...

Core Viewpoint - The company is actively engaging in various projects to enhance its operational efficiency and profitability, despite facing challenges in the market for its main products [1][2]. Group 1: Company Announcements - The company announced an earnings briefing on June 12, 2025, to discuss its financial performance and strategic initiatives [1]. - The company clarified that there are no major restructuring plans involving Yihua Group, and it is focused on a specific stock issuance to acquire a stake in Hubei Hongyi Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. [1]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 613 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.31%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -9.95 million yuan, down 106.01% [2]. - The company's debt ratio stands at 41.07%, with investment income of 89.86 million yuan and financial expenses of -11.99 million yuan, resulting in a gross margin of 4.74% [2]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing 1.366 billion yuan in upgrading its soda ash production facilities to reduce costs, which is currently in trial production [1]. - A 199 million yuan investment is being made in a thermal system upgrade project, expected to save approximately 11 million yuan annually once fully operational [1]. - The company is developing a 50,000-ton battery-grade sodium carbonate production facility and is conducting small-scale tests for sodium-ion battery cathode materials [1]. - Plans include a new 1.5 million-ton vacuum salt project and a 400,000-ton annual value-added nitrogen fertilizer project, both in preliminary stages [1]. - The company is exploring the decomposition of its main product, ammonium chloride, to recycle ammonia for soda ash production and extract chlorine for other chemical products [1]. Group 4: Market Challenges - The company faced losses in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 primarily due to a significant decline in market prices for its main products, despite normal production and sales conditions [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the soda ash futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to weak demand and increasing supply, leading to a significant drop in prices [1][6][8] - As of June 12, domestic soda ash manufacturers have a total inventory of 1.6863 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 59,300 tons, indicating a high inventory level compared to historical data [3] - The production of soda ash is expected to increase in the coming months due to new capacities coming online, with a weekly production of 744,900 tons reported as of June 12 [4][6] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the soda ash market is likely to remain in a state of oversupply, with limited upward price drivers, and recommend a strategy of short selling on rebounds [6][7] - The glass production sector is facing declining profits, which is contributing to the downward pressure on soda ash prices, with average weekly profits for float glass production reported at -128.47 yuan/ton [3] - The supply pressure remains high, with expectations of continued weak performance in soda ash prices due to high inventory levels and the potential for increased production from upcoming maintenance and new capacity [8]

Group 1: Steel and Coal Industry - Hebei Steel Group's silicon manganese production in June is 11,700 tons, slightly up from 11,600 tons in May [1] - Rebar production decreased to 2.0757 million tons, down by 108,900 tons or 4.98% from the previous week, with inventory levels also declining for the third consecutive week [1] - Average profit per ton of coke across 30 independent coking plants in China is -46 yuan, with regional variations in profitability [1] Group 2: Agricultural Products - China's cotton import forecast for the 2024/2025 season has been revised down to 1.2 million tons, a decrease of 300,000 tons from the previous month due to U.S. tariffs [1] - Brazil's soybean export forecast for June 8-14 is 3.5645 million tons, down from 4.4739 million tons the previous week, while soybean meal exports increased significantly [2] - The USDA reports that U.S. soybean production for the 2025/2026 season is expected to be 4.34 billion bushels, with ending stocks projected at 295 million bushels [3] Group 3: Chemical Industry - Domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory reached 1.6863 million tons, increasing by 59,300 tons or 3.64% week-on-week [3] - The theoretical profit for ammonia-soda method soda ash has decreased by 29.20 yuan per ton [3] Group 4: Lead Industry - A major recycled lead smelter in North China has temporarily halted production due to raw material shortages, with plans to increase procurement prices [3] - A primary lead smelting company in East China has postponed its scheduled maintenance from June to August due to satisfactory equipment performance [3]